SB Nation User Blog: jasonkylebates

Chris Johnson's '09 Outlook

jasonkylebates — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 04:11:41 -0000

Chris Johnson's '09 Outlook

The blog section of pro-football-refernce.com—which is a very interesting blog if you aren't already reading it—takes a look at what CJ's production should look like this coming season.

Titans Agree to Terms with Third Rounder Cook

jasonkylebates — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:38:04 -0000

Titans Agree to Terms with Third Rounder Cook

At this rate will begin the playoffs with 5 blueliners on the ice...

jasonkylebates — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:08:03 -0000

At this rate will begin the playoffs with 5 blueliners on the ice...

Per the ESPN/AP story Trotz is noted as saying Erat likely had a fractured leg and would be out for at least four weeks. This is getting ridiculous.

Titans vs Packers - a Football Outsiders Preview

jasonkylebates — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:51:49 -0000

On Sunday, Tennessee and Green Bay will begin the November portion of their respective schedules playing each other at LP Field. The teams are already familiar with each other, having met in Green Bay in August for their final pre-season game.

The Packers come into the game tied with the Bears at 4-3 in the NFC North, and they look to keep pace with Chicago while the Bears will spend their weekend on a bye playing the Detroit Lions. The Packers will have preparation in their favor when they come to Nashville, as they are returning from their week 8 bye.

With a short work week the Titans are grateful to stay at home, having taken down the reigning AFC South champion Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football. This game will be Tennessee's toughest yet, as Green Bay will be the only other team that the Titans have faced this season that owns a winning record (Baltimore is the other, also 4-3).

While matchup previews on the Network (NFL) and the Worldwide Leader (ESPN) will probably provide plenty of traditional football analysis (opinion), I've decided to do something different (numbers).

For the uninitiated, Football Outsiders is the Bell Labs of professional football sabermetrics. They publish the Pro Football Prospectus, an annual look back and look ahead at the NFL using their proprietary statistical concepts. If you like football and numbers, then they are the sports writers for you.

In what I hope will become a weekly affair for the remainder of the regular season, I will provide a breakdown of the Titans' upcoming matchup using the stats that FO generates. If you've never read anything from FO, some of their terms will be confusing. Please familiarize yourself with their innovations here before reading on; you'll be a better fan for it. Now for the numbers.

As a team, the Titans have posted the third highest overall DVOA through eight weeks. Though perfect in record, they sit behind the 4-3 Philadelphia Eagles (38.6%, in 1st) and the 6-1 New York Giants (37.2%, in 2nd). Green Bay edges the upper third of NFL teams in DVOA (13.7%, in 11th), making them either the worst of the best, below Carolina (13.8%), or the best of the average, above Miami (13.6%).

Both teams sit in the middle of the league in offensive DVOA, but they are different varieties of average. Green Bay (5.9%, tied for 15th) has a pretty successful passing game (17.5%, in 11th), sitting between Denver (20.8%) and Jacksonville (16.8%). The Packers are held back on offense by their running game (-7.7%, in 25th). They are accompanied in their rushing struggles by, and I can't believe I'm typing this, Carolina (-4.5%) and Minnesota (-8.3%).

Tennessee regresses to the mean by employing the opposite strategy - throwing poorly and running well. The Titans (4.6%, in 18th) have a below average passing game (-2.5%, in 20th), well ahead of the Jets (-9.2%) but behind the Vikings (-1.3%). The Titans move on the ground well, however (9.9%, in 6th), ahead of the Falcons (8.8%) and just behind the Ravens (10.0%).

In defensive DVOA, both teams are in the top ten, however, Tennessee's defense in substantially more balanced and, consequently, more dominating. The Titans are tied with the Steelers for bronze medal defense (-23.4%, in 3rd) behind Baltimore (-23.5%) and ahead of Philadelphia (-18.3%). The Packers (-6.7%, in 8th) are wedged between the Giants (-6.9%) and the Bears (-6.5%).

As good as Green Bay is against the pass (-29.6%, in 2nd), they are trumped by Tennessee (-33.4%), the best in the league through eight weeks. The Titans are also in the top ten against the run (-12.0%, in 8th) behind the Bears (-14%) and ahead of the Redskins (-7.9%). The Packers, on the other hand, are three spots out of last against the run (17.1%, in 29th) trailing the Raiders (14.9%) but fending off the Rams (21.7%).

So that's a macro look at both sides of the ball. I'm not going to cover special teams. Football Outsiders, though they measure special teams stats, they also have found that football is a seven part game - three parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams. Six out of seven isn't bad (unless there is a PAT involved).

Also, this isn't a FO stat but an old fashioned NFL one - Charles Woodson and Nick Collins of the Packers and Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan of the Titans are all tied for the league lead with four interceptions each. If there were an interconference mid-season pro bowl team (just rolls of the tongue, doesn't it?) those four guys would be your starting secondary.

I believe that will wrap it up for now. In this inaugural column I wanted to introduce the DVOA concept on both sides of the ball and make general comparisons. Later in the week I plan on specifically comparing quarterbacks, running backs, and receiving corps with DYAR, and the offensive and defensive lines with Success Rates. That column will focus on the weapons and strategies that make each team function.

Finally, please share any ideas or criticisms in the comments below. I want this to become a regular feature on Music City Miracles, and if it is going to be I would like the readers to have some say in its content.

Titans not hurt by defensive penalties

jasonkylebates — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 18:44:51 -0000

Titans not hurt by defensive penalties

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders explains why, though the Titans' D is heavily penalized, they are not hurt because of it.

Your Solely Undefeated Tennessee Titans

jasonkylebates — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 06:36:35 -0000

Your Solely Undefeated Tennessee Titans

Enjoy!
Let's hope the guys saw tonight's game and the St. Louis upset of Washington. That phrase "any given Sunday" hangs around for a reason.
They better be all business Sunday in Kansas City.

Breaking News: Tulloch to Start vs Vikings

jasonkylebates — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:03:16 -0000

http://is.gd/35i9

That has all the details. Fisher wouldn't say if the move is permanent.

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This lower limit on words has got to stop.

8/1/08 Evening Practice Report

jasonkylebates — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:11:27 -0000

The lights were up and the crowd was out at tonight's practice. There were probably about a thousand people at Baptist Sports Park to see the Titans practice under the new lights.

After opening stretches the team split into positions, and I watched the receivers warm-up. Nothing spectacular to see except that after warmups Justin McCarreins, 19, didn't participate in any of the drills. I presume Jim Wyatt will have something to say about it in the Tennessean soon.

I'm going to retract my prediction about Chris Davis (the old one, not the new one), 17, not making the 53-man roster. He and TE Jamie Petrowski, 85, were the most impressive players in full team drills tonight, making difficult catches and taking hard hits immediately.

Vince looked inconsistent all night. Early in drills he threw a beautiful bomb down the right sideline for a touchdown, however it was on the other side of the field and I couldn't see the receiver. Later on he started looking like Vince of last season, not stepping through his throws and lobbing balls into the ground 3 yards in front of the intended receiver.

The defense appeared to be working on corner blitzes much of the night. I saw Cortland Finnegan, 31, make a blitz that would have resulted in a sack had it been a game, and Reynaldo Hill, 21, blitzed later on with the second unit.

Before team drills I watched the LBs go one-on-one against the RBs in a blitz pickup drill. The result was advantage RBs. Suprisingly, Chris Johnson, 28, more than held his own despite his size, and he also impressed running the ball in full team drills.

That's all for now. I planned on going to tomorrow's practice at 11:30am but am unable to attend so if any intrepid reader would like to go scouting at camp I'd very much appreciate your report.

Thanks,

Jason

8/1/08 Evening Practice

jasonkylebates — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 23:08:59 -0000

The first public practice under the new lights is tonight at 7:30pm at Baptist Sports Park.

I'll be there keeping an eye on Chris Davis, Chris Davis, and everyone named Williams. I should have a report posted tonight when I get home.

If you have any particular things you would like answered just leave a comment below, and I'll try to respond to it tonight.

This sentence is completely arbitrary because I haven't reached the word quota.

7/27 Training Camp Report

jasonkylebates — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 03:08:01 -0000

Today's training camp was the first in shoulder pads and my first to watch this season. The team worked on field 3 (the far one) for about two and a half hours beginning with stretches, position drills, small unit work, and finishing with 11 on 11.

I stood on the 10 yard line away from the bubble for the duration of the practice and got great looks at the running backs doing individual drills, the linebackers and safeties working against the running backs and tight ends, the O-line and D-line working against each other, and the 11 on 11 work.

Here are my thoughts on the day:

Chris Johnson - Runs individual drills lazily, didn't impress catching the ball, but he definitely shows up during the full team work, fast and agile

Chris Davis - Will not make the team, consistently dropped passes and punts

Albert Haynesworth - Didn't look like he missed anything at all by not coming to OTAs, dude is a beast

Kyle Vanden Bosch - I expect him to repeat at the Pro Bowl this year. When working against Michael Roos it was about half success, half failure, but against anyone else he absolutely dominated.

Jevon Kearse - Looked good in drills, they was a funny moment when a trainer was working on his right arm during the full team drills and Jim Washburn looks over and yells, "Are you two bullshitting or is he actually hurt?" A couple of plays later Tony Joiner (a fellow Florida alum) put a massive hit on Craig Stevens in the flat and Kearse was seen doing the Gator Chomp from the sideline.

Vince Young - Looked excellent. The 53 yard bomb to McCarreins was thrown perfectly, but I was more impressed by work he did working with just the backs and tight ends. I recall numerous plays from last season when Vince would throw poorly to the flats, hitting Ahmard Hall or LenDale White in the feet. I watched him throw these routes with all of his back today, and Vince was perfect every time.

Biren Ealy - Caught everything thrown his way, the dude is going to impress this year. He is very shifty. Reminds me a little of what Wes Welker does in the open field.

Jason Jones/William Hayes - You'll hear Washburn yelling at these two a lot in drills because they are raw, but make no mistake they are going to develop into some excellent linemen.

That's all I remember off the top of my head, but feel free to ask about anyone I left out. Things are looking good from July 27th. Go Titans!