SBNation.com User Blog: jbacon55

Assessing (and ranking!) the post-draft state of each team, part 1

jbacon55 — Mon, 13 May 2013 03:33:31 -0000

I've been wanting to write this for a good long while, but I've spent the past two weeks barricaded in my (metaphorical) office trying to grind out a thesis. I'm happy to report that as of Saturday, my thesis has been accepted, and I'm now done with grad school.

So, from now on that's MASTER jbacon55 to you, peasants. (it's funny because my degree is worthless and will probably prove to have been a colossal waste of time.) EDIT: I worry from some of the comments that people think I was bragging. I way wasnt; I just wanted to excuse my length absence.

Self-depricating condescension aside, I want to take a few minutes to assess each team's likelihood of success for the coming season. The easy way out is to simply say that these are power rankings, but I hate that term in the offseason for one major reason: it implies predictions. Ranking teams before they take the field should be based on the same general idea as evaluating free agent signings or rating draft prospects--the rankings should be based on probability rather than prediction. It's ridiculous to make predictions about which teams will succeed and which will be the Jacksonville Jaguars before the season even starts. Instead, the prudent ranker will order teams by how likely they are to succeed--a much more manageable and appropriate task.

With that in mind, ranking teams on any relatively subjective measure even before training camp begins is just dumb, so I'll be really disappointed in anyone who reads any more of this post.

For those of you silly enough to stick around, let's get started with part 1 (#1-16). I've been ranking since the start of free agency, so in parentheses I'll include the team's pre-draft rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks (1)

What they have: one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league, a terrifying defense, an electric playmaker at WR, a stacked offensive line, and one of the best running backs in the game.

What they don't have: super powers, ostensibly.

X factor: Russell Wilson, QB.

Analysis: This is arguably the most complete team in the NFL. For this analysis section, you could pretty much copy and paste the "What they have" section. They were already one of the best teams (Atlanta had no business winning that divisional playoff game), and they only got better throughout the off season. Their defensive line looks fierce, and the addition of Antoine Winfield to an already-stacked secondary seems almost unfair. Wilson is the X factor only because he plays the most important position, so the team will perform at whatever level Wilson can take them to. I don't expect him to regress much because of his tireless work ethic, so expect the Seahawks to soar (I swear I did not mean to make a pun here).

2. San Francisco 49ers (2)

What they don't have: A true superstar defensive back?

X factor: Justin Smith, DE/DT

Analysis: There isn't much else to say about the Niners that hasn't been said about the Seahawks (as evidenced by the copy-pasted strengths section). I'm going with Justin Smith as the X factor because he's the real leader of their fearsome pass rush, and with their starting NT and back up DE/DT departing, there will be added pressure on him to perform at a high level. If he can't get pressure on the quarterback, I don't think their defense will be what it was in 2012.

3. Denver Broncos (3)

What they have: A first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, a defense that would be number 1 in any other era, and the absolute best receiving trio in the league (and maybe even in recent memory).

What they don't have: A reliable running back

X factor: Champ Bailey, CB

Analysis: This team's passing attack is down right scary. The combination of Eric Decker and Demariyus Thomas was already one of the most lethal in the league, but some how John Elway managed to sign Wes Welker making it the unquestioned lord of all receiving corps. The only thing this team lacks is a reliable running back. If Willis McGahee stays healthy that's settled, but he won't. Montee Ball, on the other hand, isn't likely to enjoy much success. He's already got tons of miles on his body. I've chosen Champ Bailey instead of Peyton Manning as the X factor because of his central role in their passing defense. Bailey is still left on an island with opposing receivers and still, despite his age, shuts them down. If he's unable to do that this year, they'll have to significantly alter their secondary game plan.

4. Green Bay Packers (5)

What they have: The best QB in football, a defense on the rise, and now two of the safest rookie RBs to come out of the 2013 draft

What they don't have: A corner to pair with Casey Hayward, a suitable back up for the potentially injury-prone BJ Raji.

X factor: Eddie Lacy, RB

Analysis: What can be said about the Packers that isn't already common knowledge? They have a high-octane aerial attack and a decent pass rush. The pass rush got much better with the addition of Datone Jones, and for the first time in years they should have a solid run game. If Eddie Lacy pans out, one of two things should happen. Either 1) he forces defenses to shut him down opening up far more passing opportunities, or 2) he puts up monster numbers.

5. Atlanta Falcons (4)

What they have: One of the better starting quarterbacks, a dynamic receiving corps, and a shiny new running back.

What they don't have: they lost some of their pass-rushing prowess and don't have much veteran leadership in the secondary.

X factor: Steven Jackson, RB

Analysis: The Falcons are to this decade what the Cowboys were to the 70s: "next year's champions." They consistently underperform, and I'm hesitant to put them this high. Falcons fans have reason to be optimistic this year, though. Matt Ryan presumably got the monkey off his back by winning his first playoff game last season, and the addition of Steven Jackson should constitute a massive upgrade over Michael Turner. If Steven Jackson pans out, he'll take a fair amount of pressure off Matt Ryan. Atlanta's aerial attack should also let Jackson enjoy more success than he's used to.

6. Houston Texans (6)

What they have: One of the best running games in the league, one of the best receivers in the league, an insane defense, and an efficient, relatively mistake-free quarterback

What they don't have: A proven receiving corps behind Andre Johnson.

X factor: DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Analysis: The Texans have been on the verge of greatness for the past couple of seasons. With a maturing defense and the addition of some more offensive weapons, this might be their year. Arian Foster is obviously great, and Matt Schaub is not someone who will lose you many games. The Texans' big problem over the past two years has been their lack of a reliable #2 receiver. DeAndre Hopkins inspired a lot of hot or cold responses from draftniks and fans alike, but if he can perform how some expect him to, the Texans' aerial attack could become elite. I fully expect this to happen, too. In the weeks leading up to the draft, I became more and more high on Hopkins--so much so that by the time draft night rolled around, my nose had gone so far up his rear that he spent the evening perched comfortably atop my shoulders. (If you thought that was crass, you should have read my original joke.)

7. Chicago Bears (8)

What they have: An outstanding quarterback, an All-Pro receiver, a great run game, and one of the league's best defenses

What they don't have: A reliable receiving corps behind Brandon Marshall and an offensive line

X factor: Jermon Bushrod, OT

Analysis: The Bears broke every Chicagoan's heart last season, starting 7-1 and then failing to make the playoffs. There were two major reasons for this: an offensive line that might have been more porous than the Colts' and a complete lack of any receiving weapons outside of Brandon Marshall. The Bears went all-out on their offensive line this off season, so if everyone pans out Jay Cutler might stand a chance of not being totally destroyed this year. I've picked Jermon Bushrod as the X factor because he will be Cutler's blind-side protector, but any offensive lineman could be put here.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (10)

What they have: A solid aerial attack, a great offensive line, a running back with high upside, and a solid defense

What they don't have: A game-changing quarterback

X factor: Giovanni Bernard, RB

Analysis: Over the past two-ish seasons, the Bengals have been the definition of average. They obliterate the bottom half of the league and tend to fair rather poorly against the top half of the league. However, there is no denying they are a team on the rise. Andy Dalton isn't an ultra-elite quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, but I'd take him over a lot of other QBs in the league. The combination of Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert should help him along, as will the drafting of Bernard. Much like Eddie Lacy and the Packers, if Bernard pans out it will really open things up for Dalton and AJ Green.

9. New Orleans Saints (11)

What they have: A top-flight QB, a stud receiver, a stacked backfield, and a coach with a chip on his shoulder

What they don't have: A defense (mostly)

X factor: Rob Ryan, DC

Analysis: No one should doubt the Saints' offensive prowess. Drew Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, Marques Colston is tremendous, and their offensive line is on the rise. The Saints' Achilles Heel, however, has always been the defense. That is poised to change this season. The addition of Kenny Vaccaro (safety), John Jenkins (DT/NT), and Chase Thomas (OLB) should inject the team with some much-needed talent. If Rob Ryan can get the most out of those additions, the Saints should be a contender.

10. New York Giants (9)

What they have: A great-if-inconsistent QB, playmakers at receiver, a young RB with upside, and a defense on the rise

What they don't have: A capable receiving TE and depth in the secondary

X factor: Hakeem Nicks, WR

Analysis: The Giants are one of the best teams in December and January, and they should continue that this season. However, it seems they probably got a little bit worse over the course of the off season. They failed to adequately replace the departed Osi Umenyiora or Martellus Bennett. Damontre Moore might be able to help the pass rush, though scouts apparently are really concerned about his maturity level, but the didn't really add anyone capable of covering for the lost receiving capability of Bennett. For that reason, the success of the Giants seems to hinge on Hakeem Nicks--specifically whether he can stay healthy. Since entering the league he's never played a full season, but if he can stay healthy this year that might help make up for the hole at receiving TE.

11. New England Patriots (7)

What they have: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

What they don't have: A reliable secondary and receiving talent

X factor: Aqib Talib, CB

Analysis: As long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, they should be considered contenders. They are ranked this highly for that reason alone. Aside from those two guys, there really isn't much to speak of on this team. Sure they have a decent pass rush and a stable of RBs that has shown a lot of potential, but it's looking like the Patriots are due for some struggles. The loss of Wes Welker cannot be overstated, as he was the team's only reliable receiver. With all that said, I'm not too worried about the Pats having the offensive firepower to win the AFC simply because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are *that* good. This team's success will be determined by the play of their secondary, so their X factor is the best player on that secondary. if Aqib Talib can play to his potential, the Pats just might have a decent defense. If that happens, watch out.

12. Minnesota Vikings (13)

What they have: The best run game in the league, a TE who is lethal in the red zone, a top-flight pass rusher, and three of the most promising rookies from the 2013 class.

What they don't have: A reliable QB and a proven secondary

X factor: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

Analysis: If not for the Chiefs, the Vikings just might have been the most under-achieving team in 2012. Many will point to the loss of Percy Harvin as a harbinger of disaster for the Vikings, but it should not be forgotten that they were essentially without him for most of the 2012 season and still made the playoffs. If Cordarrelle Patterson can live up to his hype and Christian Ponder can take a step forward, this team could be tremendous. If either of the team's two defensive first round selections pan out, this team could easily make a short run in the playoffs.

13. Baltimore Ravens (15)

What they have: A great RB, a deep-threat WR, a solid TE, and defense with a lot of upside.

What they don't have: A legitimate #2 or #3 receiver

X factor: Torrey Smith, WR

Analysis: The reigning Super Bowl champions are getting a lot of respect in the wake of free agency and the draft. As always, Ozzie Newsome made a series of shrewd moves in free agency and the draft and has left Baltimore fans with lodes of optimism. The problem for the Ravens (and the reason I'm not ready to put them in my top 10) is that right now a lot of that optimism is based on unproven potential. If the Ravens' top draft choices pan out, this defense could be even better than it was prior (which is hard to imagine). While the defense is soaked in upside, the X factor here is Torrey Smith. With the loss of Anquan Boldin, Smith will be the unquestioned top receiver. If he can rise to the occasion the Ravens should compete for the AFC title again.

14. St. Louis Rams (19)

What they have: An improved offensive line, a maturing QB, and a receiving corps dripping with upside.

What they don't have: A running back capable of taking pressure off Sam Bradford

X factor: Jake Long, OT

Analysis: I'm going to be honest: I really don't think the Rams belong this high on the list, but something in my gut is telling me that this is a team to watch in 2013. They turned in some surprising performances in 2012, and they only got better this off season: there were two major limiting factors for the Rams in 2012, and the front office addressed both. The signing of Jake Long and the drafting of Barrett Jones should solidify the offensive line and give Sam Bradford a fighting chance. Long is my X factor here simply because he is Bradford's new blindside protector. If he can return to his previous form, Bradford will have plenty of time to get the ball to his shiny new receivers. If not, expect him to go down with a case of David Carr syndrome. It's worth noting that the other big question mark is Tavon Austin. He has the tools to be the next Percy Harvin, so it will be interesting to see if he capitalizes. I'm also convinced Stedman Bailey will be an elite receiver in a few years time.

15. Indianapolis Colts (18)

What they have: The best young QB in the league, veteran leaders at two of the most important positions (Mathis and Wayne), an outstanding TE, and a maturing run game

What they don't have: Proven talent anywhere else.

X factor: Everyone not named Luck, Wayne, Mathis, or Allen.

Analysis: If I were to describe the Colts in one word, it would be "upside." This team is stacked with unproven potential that could just as easily make a Super Bowl run as it could go 7-9 and miss the playoffs. There are questions all over the roster. Which Gosder Cherilus will we get? Will RJF be worth his contract? Will Bjoern Werner pan out? Can LaRon Landry stay healthy? Will DHB finally play to his potential? Will TY learn how to catch? Will Coby Fleener live up to his hype? Can one of our three centers actually play center? Was Freeman's 2012 campaign a fluke? Can Greg Toler stay healthy? Will Vontae Davis continue to improve? And those are just the first ones that come to mind. If I had to pick one player, though, I'd probably say Josh Chapman. If he delivers on his hype, our defense will be greatly improved, and maybe, just maybe, we won't have to win close games in the 4th quarter.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (14)

What they have: A solid-when-healthy QB, a decent receiving corps, and a solid defense

What they don't have: proven talent at pass rush, depth at corner and receiver, and a solid running back

X factor: Jarvis Jones, OLB

Analysis: The Steelers missed the playoffs last year, so they will have a chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately, they simply didn't get much better in the off season. Markus Wheaton and Le'Veon Bell could pan out and fill big holes, but even then I think their success will be determined by Jarvis Jones and the injury-plagued Troy Polamalu. I've gone with Jarvis Jones as the X factor because the loss of James Harrison cannot be overstated. He made the entire defense better, and his pass rushing could take some pressure off the secondary. Jarvis Jones is a boom-or-bust player. He had tremendous success in the best conference in college football, but there are major questions about his work ethic and his game speed. There have also been questions raised about the nature of his sack numbers--a few draftniks have suggested that he benefited from a lot of unblocked or coverage sacks. If he lives up to his pre-draft hype, the Steelers should pick up where they left off last season. If not, expect a continued decline.

So there's the first half of this analysis. If you guys want, I can have part 2 posted later this week. What are your thoughts?

With that in mind, ranking teams on any relatively subjective measure even before training camp begins is just dumb, so I'll be really disappointed in anyone who reads any more of this post.

For those of you silly enough to stick around, let's get started with part 1 (#1-16). I've been ranking since the start of free agency, so in parentheses I'll include the team's pre-draft rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks (1)

What they don't have: super powers, ostensibly.

X factor: Russell Wilson, QB.

2. San Francisco 49ers (2)

What they don't have: A true superstar defensive back?

X factor: Justin Smith, DE/DT

3. Denver Broncos (3)

What they have: A first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, a defense that would be number 1 in any other era, and the absolute best receiving trio in the league (and maybe even in recent memory).

What they don't have: A reliable running back

X factor: Champ Bailey, CB

4. Green Bay Packers (5)

What they have: The best QB in football, a defense on the rise, and now two of the safest rookie RBs to come out of the 2013 draft

What they don't have: A corner to pair with Casey Hayward, a suitable back up for the potentially injury-prone BJ Raji.

X factor: Eddie Lacy, RB

5. Atlanta Falcons (4)

What they have: One of the better starting quarterbacks, a dynamic receiving corps, and a shiny new running back.

What they don't have: they lost some of their pass-rushing prowess and don't have much veteran leadership in the secondary.

X factor: Steven Jackson, RB

6. Houston Texans (6)

What they have: One of the best running games in the league, one of the best receivers in the league, an insane defense, and an efficient, relatively mistake-free quarterback

What they don't have: A proven receiving corps behind Andre Johnson.

X factor: DeAndre Hopkins, WR

7. Chicago Bears (8)

What they have: An outstanding quarterback, an All-Pro receiver, a great run game, and one of the league's best defenses

What they don't have: A reliable receiving corps behind Brandon Marshall and an offensive line

X factor: Jermon Bushrod, OT

8. Cincinnati Bengals (10)

What they have: A solid aerial attack, a great offensive line, a running back with high upside, and a solid defense

What they don't have: A game-changing quarterback

X factor: Giovanni Bernard, RB

9. New Orleans Saints (11)

What they have: A top-flight QB, a stud receiver, a stacked backfield, and a coach with a chip on his shoulder

What they don't have: A defense (mostly)

X factor: Rob Ryan, DC

10. New York Giants (9)

What they have: A great-if-inconsistent QB, playmakers at receiver, a young RB with upside, and a defense on the rise

What they don't have: A capable receiving TE and depth in the secondary

X factor: Hakeem Nicks, WR

11. New England Patriots (7)

What they have: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

What they don't have: A reliable secondary and receiving talent

X factor: Aqib Talib, CB

12. Minnesota Vikings (13)

What they have: The best run game in the league, a TE who is lethal in the red zone, a top-flight pass rusher, and three of the most promising rookies from the 2013 class.

What they don't have: A reliable QB and a proven secondary

X factor: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

13. Baltimore Ravens (15)

What they have: A great RB, a deep-threat WR, a solid TE, and defense with a lot of upside.

What they don't have: A legitimate #2 or #3 receiver

X factor: Torrey Smith, WR

14. St. Louis Rams (19)

What they have: An improved offensive line, a maturing QB, and a receiving corps dripping with upside.

What they don't have: A running back capable of taking pressure off Sam Bradford

X factor: Jake Long, OT

15. Indianapolis Colts (18)

What they have: The best young QB in the league, veteran leaders at two of the most important positions (Mathis and Wayne), an outstanding TE, and a maturing run game

What they don't have: Proven talent anywhere else.

X factor: Everyone not named Luck, Wayne, Mathis, or Allen.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (14)

What they have: A solid-when-healthy QB, a decent receiving corps, and a solid defense

What they don't have: proven talent at pass rush, depth at corner and receiver, and a solid running back

X factor: Jarvis Jones, OLB

So there's the first half of this analysis. If you guys want, I can have part 2 posted later this week. What are your thoughts?

Poll

Did you continue to read despite my warnings?

The Dos and Don'ts of Critiquing Personnel Moves

jbacon55 — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 16:27:04 -0000

Update: I'm not sure why there are some font oddities here. I can't change them for some reason.

So, the draft ended yesterday and the dust is beginning to settle. In the wake of personnel move dating all the way back to free agency, there was a a flurry of discussion on this and other blogs. Most discussions were civil, insightful, and fun to read, however there were a number that turned nasty really quickly. Those negative turns were usually the result of people simply making silly or overly hyperbolic arguments. I get that we are all passionate about our team, but when discussing this (and every!) off season, it's important to keep some things in mind. With that said, here's my suggestion for a list of various things we should and shouldn't do when critiquing personnel moves.

DO:

Read the entirety of someone's point before responding. We've all been guilty of stopping halfway through a lengthy comment to respond to a particularly egregious comment. The problem is, every now and then the poster goes on to qualify or otherwise temper the argument later on in the post.
Support your arguments with evidence. None of us expect our peers here to delve into tape on every player the Colts sign, draft, or release, but it's important that we provide reasoning with our arguments. There've been a ton of posts that simply say "you're dumb" or "you're wrong, this guy rules/sucks!". Explain why you think someone is wrong.
Take time to think about your critique before posting it. I'm probably the world's guiltiest person when it comes to this point. When I don't like a draft pick, FA signing, or player release, I jump to conclusions faster than Brandon Weeden will lose his starting job (Zing!). After making a critique (whether positive or negative), about an hour later I revisit it and realize I passed judgement far too quickly. A good example of this is my recent post about losing faith in Grigson in the wake of drafting Khaled Holmes. I still think we probably should have taken Patton, but I'm not nearly as upset about it as I was when I posted. After doing my homework, I totally understand the choice, even if I disagree with it.
Be welcoming to new, inexperienced posters. In the wake of major moves, it always seems someone we haven't seen much before pops up to make a particularly long comment or a new FanPost. Many times these posts have blatant errors (I know my first few posts definitely did. And then several posts after that did. And then the rest did. Basically I'm saying don't read my FanPosts.). If this is the first time you're hearing from this member, don't be so harsh in the comments. If you disagree and think they are wrong, point that out, but be sure to extend a welcoming hand at the end. Active members are the lifeblood of this community, and we shouldn't scare new ones off.

DO NOT:

Mischaracterize someone's argument. This happens a lot on here, and I'm definitely guilty of it. For instance, saying that the Colts should have drafted Quinton Patton instead of Hugh Thornton is not the same as saying Hugh Thornton was a bad pick. Additionally, saying that Khaled Holmes doesn't project to be a starter is not the same as saying Khaled Holmes will be a bad player.
Make overly sweeping comments. We've ALL done this, whether we're supporting a move or being critical of it. Comments like "this player will definitely be terrible" or "this player is going to lock down the position for the next 10 years" are worthless. We simply don't know how the player is going to work in the system. However....
Pretend that a given player has never played football before. Yes, FA signings and draft picks have never worn a Colts uniform or played a down in Indianapolis, but that doesn't mean they haven't played a boat load of football. Regardless of the fact that a player hasn't played for the Colts, there is usually a wealth of tape on a player on which to base projections. For instance, it would be a mistake to say Erik Walden is definitely going to be cut after the first season, but it would be equally wrong to respond to someone saying he projects as a back up by saying "DOOD LET HIM PLAY A DOWN BEFORE JUDGING HIM!!!!1".
Use the argument that "well that's why Grigson is the GM and you are not." Yes, we get it, none of us are NFL GMs and usually they have access to WAY more information than we are. However, NFL GMs have been really, really wrong in the past and so they are not above criticism.
Appeal to what other GMs have done. This goes both ways. Often big reaches are justified by saying "yeah well x team also had them rated highly." Without explaining why that might be, you haven't actually addressed the argument that a given player wasn't worth that high of a selection. The same applies for the argument that the Colts were justified in not making a selection because a bunch of other GMs passed on that player. Again, GMs have been really wrong in the past. This is also a logical fallacy; it's called an appeal to the majority.

So those are my suggestions. I really, really hope this didn't come across as condescending. I cannot stress enough that I've done almost all of these, and I don't mean to imply that I haven't.

What suggestions do you guys have?

Update: I'm not sure why there are some font oddities here. I can't change them for some reason.

DO:

Read the entirety of someone's point before responding. We've all been guilty of stopping halfway through a lengthy comment to respond to a particularly egregious comment. The problem is, every now and then the poster goes on to qualify or otherwise temper the argument later on in the post.
Support your arguments with evidence. None of us expect our peers here to delve into tape on every player the Colts sign, draft, or release, but it's important that we provide reasoning with our arguments. There've been a ton of posts that simply say "you're dumb" or "you're wrong, this guy rules/sucks!". Explain why you think someone is wrong.
Take time to think about your critique before posting it. I'm probably the world's guiltiest person when it comes to this point. When I don't like a draft pick, FA signing, or player release, I jump to conclusions faster than Brandon Weeden will lose his starting job (Zing!). After making a critique (whether positive or negative), about an hour later I revisit it and realize I passed judgement far too quickly. A good example of this is my recent post about losing faith in Grigson in the wake of drafting Khaled Holmes. I still think we probably should have taken Patton, but I'm not nearly as upset about it as I was when I posted. After doing my homework, I totally understand the choice, even if I disagree with it.
Be welcoming to new, inexperienced posters. In the wake of major moves, it always seems someone we haven't seen much before pops up to make a particularly long comment or a new FanPost. Many times these posts have blatant errors (I know my first few posts definitely did. And then several posts after that did. And then the rest did. Basically I'm saying don't read my FanPosts.). If this is the first time you're hearing from this member, don't be so harsh in the comments. If you disagree and think they are wrong, point that out, but be sure to extend a welcoming hand at the end. Active members are the lifeblood of this community, and we shouldn't scare new ones off.

DO NOT:

Mischaracterize someone's argument. This happens a lot on here, and I'm definitely guilty of it. For instance, saying that the Colts should have drafted Quinton Patton instead of Hugh Thornton is not the same as saying Hugh Thornton was a bad pick. Additionally, saying that Khaled Holmes doesn't project to be a starter is not the same as saying Khaled Holmes will be a bad player.
Make overly sweeping comments. We've ALL done this, whether we're supporting a move or being critical of it. Comments like "this player will definitely be terrible" or "this player is going to lock down the position for the next 10 years" are worthless. We simply don't know how the player is going to work in the system. However....
Pretend that a given player has never played football before. Yes, FA signings and draft picks have never worn a Colts uniform or played a down in Indianapolis, but that doesn't mean they haven't played a boat load of football. Regardless of the fact that a player hasn't played for the Colts, there is usually a wealth of tape on a player on which to base projections. For instance, it would be a mistake to say Erik Walden is definitely going to be cut after the first season, but it would be equally wrong to respond to someone saying he projects as a back up by saying "DOOD LET HIM PLAY A DOWN BEFORE JUDGING HIM!!!!1".
Use the argument that "well that's why Grigson is the GM and you are not." Yes, we get it, none of us are NFL GMs and usually they have access to WAY more information than we are. However, NFL GMs have been really, really wrong in the past and so they are not above criticism.
Appeal to what other GMs have done. This goes both ways. Often big reaches are justified by saying "yeah well x team also had them rated highly." Without explaining why that might be, you haven't actually addressed the argument that a given player wasn't worth that high of a selection. The same applies for the argument that the Colts were justified in not making a selection because a bunch of other GMs passed on that player. Again, GMs have been really wrong in the past. This is also a logical fallacy; it's called an appeal to the majority.

So those are my suggestions. I really, really hope this didn't come across as condescending. I cannot stress enough that I've done almost all of these, and I don't mean to imply that I haven't.

What suggestions do you guys have?

Undrafted Free Agents that are OFF the board

jbacon55 — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 01:03:06 -0000

So, we're all a little puzzled by the Mr. Irrelevant selection. With Chase Thomas and Da'Rick Rogers still available, both of whom would fill a huge need, Grigson opted for a blocking TE. But we can get those in UDFA, right?? Nope.

Here's the resource I'm drawing from: http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013-nfl-undrafted-free-agents

UDFA the Colts have signed:

Lanear Simpson, WR, Baylor
Dan Moore, FB, Montana
Matt McManus, K, Temple
Daxton Swanson, CB, SJ State

Top UDFA the Colts have missed out on:

Da'Rick Rogers, WR, signed with Bills
Chase Thomas, OLB, signed with Saints
Josh Johnson, CB, signed with Chargers
Lonnie Pryor, FB, signed with Jacksonville
Tony Jefferson, S, signed with Cardinals
Chris Faulk, OT, signed with Browns

Unsigned UDFA the Colts should absolutely target:

Matt Summers-Gavin, G, California
Xavier Nixon, OT, Florida
Alvin Bailey, G, Arkansas
DeVonte Christopher, WR, Utah
Johnny Adams, CB, Michigan
Anthony McCloud, DT/NT, Florida State

What do you guys think? I'm still a little bitter we passed up Chase Thomas and Da'Rick Rogers at #254. On the whole though, I like most of our picks. I'm slightly warming up to Khaled Holmes, and I've already fallen for Bjoern and Hugh.

Here's the resource I'm drawing from: http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013-nfl-undrafted-free-agents

UDFA the Colts have signed:

Lanear Simpson, WR, Baylor
Dan Moore, FB, Montana
Matt McManus, K, Temple
Daxton Swanson, CB, SJ State

Top UDFA the Colts have missed out on:

Da'Rick Rogers, WR, signed with Bills
Chase Thomas, OLB, signed with Saints
Josh Johnson, CB, signed with Chargers
Lonnie Pryor, FB, signed with Jacksonville
Tony Jefferson, S, signed with Cardinals
Chris Faulk, OT, signed with Browns

Unsigned UDFA the Colts should absolutely target:

Matt Summers-Gavin, G, California
Xavier Nixon, OT, Florida
Alvin Bailey, G, Arkansas
DeVonte Christopher, WR, Utah
Johnny Adams, CB, Michigan
Anthony McCloud, DT/NT, Florida State

I'm rapidly losing faith in Ryan Grigson

jbacon55 — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 17:31:11 -0000

I'm writing this quickly from my phone that doesn't auto correct, so apologies for any typos.

I'm rapidly losing faith in Grigson.

Bjoern Werner over one of the receivers and Xavier Rhodes? Totally legit, moving on.

Hugh Thornton? Hadn't heard of him, but felt a little better after doing homework on him. I wish we would have taken Patton, but whatever.

Now we get to round 4. Quinton Patton, Jordan Poyer, Stepfan Taylor, Marcus Lattimore, Jesse Williams, and Ryan Swope are all staring us in the face, and Grigson takes Khaled Holmes???? We already have two mediocre centers, so why add one more? It isn't even like this is some unknown guy. He couldn't block anything at USC and was iniured often. This blows my mind. We can't even claim it fills a need because it doesn't.

Hopefully this will turn out well once we acactually start playing, but as it stands this looks like a terrible choice. Grigson is going to have to make a splash really soon for me to remain high on him.

I'm writing this quickly from my phone that doesn't auto correct, so apologies for any typos.

I'm rapidly losing faith in Grigson.

Bjoern Werner over one of the receivers and Xavier Rhodes? Totally legit, moving on.

Hugh Thornton? Hadn't heard of him, but felt a little better after doing homework on him. I wish we would have taken Patton, but whatever.

A humble suggestion for the 4th round

jbacon55 — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 02:58:00 -0000

So far the Colts' draft has been solid if unexciting. Bjoern Werner should become a solid starter and Hugh Thorton is the manbeastliest of the manbeasts. Seriously Hugh Thorton (more like HUGE Thorton amirite???????) is essentially a more athletic Hagrid. So, with OLB and G addressed, what now? We have a 4, 6, and two 7s remaining.

This author humbly requests Jesse Williams, DT/DE/Tattoo Model, Alabama.

Less than a month or so ago he was being mocked to the Colts at #24, and most of us were justifiably against it. However, in the 4th round he offers some extreme value as a run stuffing DE to play behind Redding and a back up NT behind Chapman and Franklin. I think it would be another solid if unexciting choice that gives us more depth (read: insurance) at DE.

The only things I'd prefer are taking Jordan Poyer if he's there or giving up our 6th or 7th if needed to trade up and get Quinton Patton. I know many would prefer Lattimore, but I'm not a big fan of his. We don't know if he will ever be 100% again. If all three of my guys are gone, though, buying a lottery ticket in the fourth wouldn't bother me. I'd just rather take Stepfan Taylor in the 6th for his great blocking and receiving.

Thoughts?

This author humbly requests Jesse Williams, DT/DE/Tattoo Model, Alabama.

Thoughts?

Please don't read this, it's another pointless 32-team mock draft.

jbacon55 — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 18:59:04 -0000

Well, despite my warnings, you're here. Let's get started.

Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M. Branden Albert, Alex Smith, talented roster, blah blah blah
Glitter Kitties: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon. Jacksonville is in a tough spot. They obviously need a franchise signal caller, but taking Geno Smith 2nd over all would be goofy. Then again, it is Jacksonville, so maybe it'll happen. If not, I'm mocking Dion Jordan here because I like to be boring and unoriginal, and because they need a pass rusher. The only other player that fits with them that is also worth taking is Eric Fisher, but my guess is Jacksonville's new GM is looking to find a flashy play maker.
Raiders: Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah. This guy might be the best player in the draft, and the Raiders desperately need defensive line help. Like imagine the Colts' offensive line before free agency. That's how bad the Raiders' defensive line is. Some have mocked Geno Smith here, but that would shock me. The new Raiders GM seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and he just traded for Matt Flynn. I doubt they bring in a signal caller this early.
Dream Team: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia. lol Mike Vick. No but seriously, a ton of people have the Eagles taking Eric Fisher, and to be honest that's both what they should do and probably what they will do. However, I think Chip Kelly would love to have Geno Smith, and I think he's going to go earlier than a lot of people expect. It's true they just restructured Michael Vick's contract to make it more cap-friendly, but I don't think that's any sign of long-term commitment. Even if they don't take Geno Smith, I expect Vick to be replaced by mid-season.
Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, Athletic Freak of Nature, BYU: The Lions lost Avril and cut Vanden Bosch. They need help at the DE position and Ansah might be BPA here anyway.
Browns: Demarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama: The Browns have to deal with some of the league's most solid passing attacks. If Milliner pans out, the Browns suddenly have one of the best CB duos in the league (assuming Joe Haden stays off drugs). I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers traded with the Browns to get Lane Johnson.
Cardinals: ~~Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma.~~ Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan. It'll be helpful to keep Drew Stanton et. al. upright, especially given BA's vertical passing attack. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers traded here, either.
Bills: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida. The Bills grab a top-3 player who is sliding.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU. The Jets apparently love this guy. Moving on.
Titans: ~~D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama.~~ DJ Fluker should absolutely not go this high, however I doubt the Titans take one the better OL prospects because they only play guard (Cooper and Warmack). The Titans should absolutely take one of the two guards, but the signing of Andy Levitre makes that difficult. Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma. Keeping Locker upright and opening holes for CJ1K should be priority #1 for the Titans.
Chargers: Jonathan Cooper, G/C, North Carolina. They need offensive line help, and Cooper's versatility gives him the edge over Warmack (he can play center, and his college coach says he's athletic enough to play FB in short yardage situations).
Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame. BUT JBACON TIGHT ENDS DON'T GO THIS EARLY. In this draft class they do. The "GM" for the Dolphins caught a lot of flack for this very pick during the community mock, but I really liked it. He will be a massive upgrade over the departing Anthony Fasano.
J-E-T-S JETS ah to hell with it, Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee. Many are mocking Tavon Austin over Patterson, in general, and several have Austin going to the Jets. That, however, fails to account for two major things. First, the Jets are without a legitimate #1 receiver (rookie Stephen Hill did nothing and Santonio Holmes is worthless), and second, Rex Ryan exists. (Okay, cheap shots at Rex Ryan aside, I do think they have made some questionable selections in recent years)
Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri. Like the Bills before them, the Panthers snag a sliding top prospect. Some have mocked Tavon Austin and Kenny Vaccaro here. Both would be good selections, but I think Richardson is the better prospect.
Saints: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia. Hey look, the Saints might have a defense this season.
Rams part 1: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia. Jeff Fisher will be doing backflips if Austin falls to him. There's no way the Rams don't take a wide receiver at some point in the first round. Austin will be a huge upgrade over the lost slot receiver/crash test dummy Danny Amendola. Recent reports have linked the Rams with Clemson stud/restroom destroyer DeAndre Hopkins. If Austin is off the board, this pick would likely be Kenny Vaccaro with the Rams hoping to land Hopkins with their second first round pick. As it stands, Jeff Fisher won't pass up Austin.
Steelers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State. The Steelers lost Keenan Lewis, so they get Rhodes as a replacement, and an upgrade.
Jerry Jones: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama. They just extended Tony Romo's contract and will be looking to win right away. Dallas has a tremendously talented roster, the only problem is their offensive line. Consider this: Mike McGlynn would probably be a huge upgrade to their interior.
Giants: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas. The Giants defense is in bad shape. They have average line backers, sub-par corners, and safeties that just aren't very good. There isn't a corner worth taking here, so they go for the top-rated safety (he also happens to be BPA at this point). Another option would be a defensive end to make up for the departing Osi Umenyora, but that isn't as pressing a need as secondary help.
Bears: ~~DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson.~~ I took some heat in the community draft for making this pick, but I still contend it makes far more sense than any of the other available options. The Bears' biggest need is offensive line, but there isn't a lineman worth taking here. In reality, they could try to trade back to the low first/early second and take Larry Warford, but I'm not mocking trades because that's even more of a crapshoot than making actual picks. The other need people talk about is middle linebacker. The Bears' LB corps has historically set the standard for the league, and Urlacher's departure seemingly leaves a large hole at the position. This is, however, completely misguided. First off, the Bears signed DJ Williams already. Second, and more importantly, the Bears were functionally without Urlacher all last season anyway--injuries left him totally hobbled. Even with issue, the Bears still had an elite defense. With that said, I'm taking Hopkins here because receiver is a glaring need. All the Bears have is Brandon Marshall and an unproven Alshon Jeffery. DJ Fluker, OT/G, Alabama. Now that I remember to include Eric Fisher in this draft, DJ Fluker falls to the Bears. They should pull the trigger without a second thought.
Bungles: John Cyprien, S, Florida International. The Bengals really need help at safety. This pick will be either Cyprien or Eric Reid, whom Cincinnati apparently really likes.
Rams part 2: Son of Rams: Eric Reid, S, LSU. The Rams also really need help at safety.
Adrian Petersons: Sylvester Williams, DT. The Vikings really need a defense to compliment Adrian Peterson. Sylvester Williams is a better prospect than #23, so the Vikings are also getting good value here. Another option would be Desmond Trufant to replace the cut Antoine Winfield. I don't expect the Vikings to target a receiver until the second or third round, but if they do decide to take one here it'll be Keenan Allen. He's a superb route runner and, most importantly, the best blocking wideout in the draft.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS F YEAH GO COLTS #CHUCKSTRONG #COLTSTRONG, Keenan Allen, WR, California. Everyone seems to think the Colts will take a pass rusher here. Brad's current mancrush seems to be on Datone Jones, but I think it'll be hard to pass up a true #1 wideout prospect in favor of a boom-or-bust defensive end, especially when Pagano's defense relies on the LBs to get pressure and the DEs to set the edge. The same can be said for Margus Hunt and Tank Carradine. With DeAndre Hopkins still on the board, he might make more sense here, but I'm giving Allen the edge because of his superior hands and blocking ability.
Even More Adrian Petersons: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia. The Vikings really need help at linebacker, and Alec Ogletree would make them jump for joy. He's the top ILB prospect in this class, so getting him at #25 is a huge value.
Packers: Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA. The Pack really need pass rushing help on their offensive line. Datone Jones offers scheme versatility and would be a solid pick in this range.
Texans: ~~Robert Woods, WR, USC.~~ A few people have mocked Justin Hunter here, but I think the Texans would prefer someone without off-the-field issues. Robert Woods has a great work ethic and, if he can add more bulk, could become Andre Johnson 2.0. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson. This guy could also become Andre Johnson 2.0.
Broncos: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State. lol Elvis Dumervill.
New England Dumbfaces: Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State. New England needs a pass defense. That could be addressed either by adding a corner or a pass rusher. I'm opting for the latter option because I expect them to target a corner later in the draft--perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. The Pats have hit home runs recently by taking top talent that slides because of off-the-field concerns (think Alfonzo Dennard).
Falcons: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington. Atlanta desperately needs help at corner given their offseason losses.
49ers, Margus Hunt, DE/OLB, Arkansas. Justin Smith isn't getting any younger, and they just lost RJF to the Colts. The 49ers could also look at a safety to replace Dashon Goldson.
Ravens: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU. Not only have the Ravens lost Ray Lewis, but they've also lost Danelle Ellerbe. There is a glaring hole at inside linebacker. The Ravens could also look at a receiver like Justin Hunter or one of the many 2nd-round corners or guards.

Well, despite my warnings, you're here. Let's get started.

Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M. Branden Albert, Alex Smith, talented roster, blah blah blah
Glitter Kitties: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon. Jacksonville is in a tough spot. They obviously need a franchise signal caller, but taking Geno Smith 2nd over all would be goofy. Then again, it is Jacksonville, so maybe it'll happen. If not, I'm mocking Dion Jordan here because I like to be boring and unoriginal, and because they need a pass rusher. The only other player that fits with them that is also worth taking is Eric Fisher, but my guess is Jacksonville's new GM is looking to find a flashy play maker.
Raiders: Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah. This guy might be the best player in the draft, and the Raiders desperately need defensive line help. Like imagine the Colts' offensive line before free agency. That's how bad the Raiders' defensive line is. Some have mocked Geno Smith here, but that would shock me. The new Raiders GM seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and he just traded for Matt Flynn. I doubt they bring in a signal caller this early.
Dream Team: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia. lol Mike Vick. No but seriously, a ton of people have the Eagles taking Eric Fisher, and to be honest that's both what they should do and probably what they will do. However, I think Chip Kelly would love to have Geno Smith, and I think he's going to go earlier than a lot of people expect. It's true they just restructured Michael Vick's contract to make it more cap-friendly, but I don't think that's any sign of long-term commitment. Even if they don't take Geno Smith, I expect Vick to be replaced by mid-season.
Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, Athletic Freak of Nature, BYU: The Lions lost Avril and cut Vanden Bosch. They need help at the DE position and Ansah might be BPA here anyway.
Browns: Demarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama: The Browns have to deal with some of the league's most solid passing attacks. If Milliner pans out, the Browns suddenly have one of the best CB duos in the league (assuming Joe Haden stays off drugs). I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers traded with the Browns to get Lane Johnson.
Cardinals: ~~Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma.~~ Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan. It'll be helpful to keep Drew Stanton et. al. upright, especially given BA's vertical passing attack. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers traded here, either.
Bills: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida. The Bills grab a top-3 player who is sliding.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU. The Jets apparently love this guy. Moving on.
Titans: ~~D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama.~~ DJ Fluker should absolutely not go this high, however I doubt the Titans take one the better OL prospects because they only play guard (Cooper and Warmack). The Titans should absolutely take one of the two guards, but the signing of Andy Levitre makes that difficult. Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma. Keeping Locker upright and opening holes for CJ1K should be priority #1 for the Titans.
Chargers: Jonathan Cooper, G/C, North Carolina. They need offensive line help, and Cooper's versatility gives him the edge over Warmack (he can play center, and his college coach says he's athletic enough to play FB in short yardage situations).
Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame. BUT JBACON TIGHT ENDS DON'T GO THIS EARLY. In this draft class they do. The "GM" for the Dolphins caught a lot of flack for this very pick during the community mock, but I really liked it. He will be a massive upgrade over the departing Anthony Fasano.
J-E-T-S JETS ah to hell with it, Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee. Many are mocking Tavon Austin over Patterson, in general, and several have Austin going to the Jets. That, however, fails to account for two major things. First, the Jets are without a legitimate #1 receiver (rookie Stephen Hill did nothing and Santonio Holmes is worthless), and second, Rex Ryan exists. (Okay, cheap shots at Rex Ryan aside, I do think they have made some questionable selections in recent years)
Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri. Like the Bills before them, the Panthers snag a sliding top prospect. Some have mocked Tavon Austin and Kenny Vaccaro here. Both would be good selections, but I think Richardson is the better prospect.
Saints: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia. Hey look, the Saints might have a defense this season.
Rams part 1: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia. Jeff Fisher will be doing backflips if Austin falls to him. There's no way the Rams don't take a wide receiver at some point in the first round. Austin will be a huge upgrade over the lost slot receiver/crash test dummy Danny Amendola. Recent reports have linked the Rams with Clemson stud/restroom destroyer DeAndre Hopkins. If Austin is off the board, this pick would likely be Kenny Vaccaro with the Rams hoping to land Hopkins with their second first round pick. As it stands, Jeff Fisher won't pass up Austin.
Steelers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State. The Steelers lost Keenan Lewis, so they get Rhodes as a replacement, and an upgrade.
Jerry Jones: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama. They just extended Tony Romo's contract and will be looking to win right away. Dallas has a tremendously talented roster, the only problem is their offensive line. Consider this: Mike McGlynn would probably be a huge upgrade to their interior.
Giants: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas. The Giants defense is in bad shape. They have average line backers, sub-par corners, and safeties that just aren't very good. There isn't a corner worth taking here, so they go for the top-rated safety (he also happens to be BPA at this point). Another option would be a defensive end to make up for the departing Osi Umenyora, but that isn't as pressing a need as secondary help.
Bears: ~~DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson.~~ I took some heat in the community draft for making this pick, but I still contend it makes far more sense than any of the other available options. The Bears' biggest need is offensive line, but there isn't a lineman worth taking here. In reality, they could try to trade back to the low first/early second and take Larry Warford, but I'm not mocking trades because that's even more of a crapshoot than making actual picks. The other need people talk about is middle linebacker. The Bears' LB corps has historically set the standard for the league, and Urlacher's departure seemingly leaves a large hole at the position. This is, however, completely misguided. First off, the Bears signed DJ Williams already. Second, and more importantly, the Bears were functionally without Urlacher all last season anyway--injuries left him totally hobbled. Even with issue, the Bears still had an elite defense. With that said, I'm taking Hopkins here because receiver is a glaring need. All the Bears have is Brandon Marshall and an unproven Alshon Jeffery. DJ Fluker, OT/G, Alabama. Now that I remember to include Eric Fisher in this draft, DJ Fluker falls to the Bears. They should pull the trigger without a second thought.
Bungles: John Cyprien, S, Florida International. The Bengals really need help at safety. This pick will be either Cyprien or Eric Reid, whom Cincinnati apparently really likes.
Rams part 2: Son of Rams: Eric Reid, S, LSU. The Rams also really need help at safety.
Adrian Petersons: Sylvester Williams, DT. The Vikings really need a defense to compliment Adrian Peterson. Sylvester Williams is a better prospect than #23, so the Vikings are also getting good value here. Another option would be Desmond Trufant to replace the cut Antoine Winfield. I don't expect the Vikings to target a receiver until the second or third round, but if they do decide to take one here it'll be Keenan Allen. He's a superb route runner and, most importantly, the best blocking wideout in the draft.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS F YEAH GO COLTS #CHUCKSTRONG #COLTSTRONG, Keenan Allen, WR, California. Everyone seems to think the Colts will take a pass rusher here. Brad's current mancrush seems to be on Datone Jones, but I think it'll be hard to pass up a true #1 wideout prospect in favor of a boom-or-bust defensive end, especially when Pagano's defense relies on the LBs to get pressure and the DEs to set the edge. The same can be said for Margus Hunt and Tank Carradine. With DeAndre Hopkins still on the board, he might make more sense here, but I'm giving Allen the edge because of his superior hands and blocking ability.
Even More Adrian Petersons: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia. The Vikings really need help at linebacker, and Alec Ogletree would make them jump for joy. He's the top ILB prospect in this class, so getting him at #25 is a huge value.
Packers: Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA. The Pack really need pass rushing help on their offensive line. Datone Jones offers scheme versatility and would be a solid pick in this range.
Texans: ~~Robert Woods, WR, USC.~~ A few people have mocked Justin Hunter here, but I think the Texans would prefer someone without off-the-field issues. Robert Woods has a great work ethic and, if he can add more bulk, could become Andre Johnson 2.0. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson. This guy could also become Andre Johnson 2.0.
Broncos: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State. lol Elvis Dumervill.
New England Dumbfaces: Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State. New England needs a pass defense. That could be addressed either by adding a corner or a pass rusher. I'm opting for the latter option because I expect them to target a corner later in the draft--perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. The Pats have hit home runs recently by taking top talent that slides because of off-the-field concerns (think Alfonzo Dennard).
Falcons: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington. Atlanta desperately needs help at corner given their offseason losses.
49ers, Margus Hunt, DE/OLB, Arkansas. Justin Smith isn't getting any younger, and they just lost RJF to the Colts. The 49ers could also look at a safety to replace Dashon Goldson.
Ravens: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU. Not only have the Ravens lost Ray Lewis, but they've also lost Danelle Ellerbe. There is a glaring hole at inside linebacker. The Ravens could also look at a receiver like Justin Hunter or one of the many 2nd-round corners or guards.

Preparing for the Draft: Necessary Reaction GIFs

jbacon55 — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 15:19:50 -0000

So, in case you hadn't heard, the draft is tomorrow (or today, if you're reading this on Thursday, or yesterday if you're reading this on Friday, or just about four and a half years ago if you're reading this on Alpha Centauri). We have all been preparing endlessly by reading player profiles, pouring over the trade value chart, and, if you're anything like me, mainlining mock drafts as if they were the highest quality heroin.

With all the wonky preparation going on, we've overlooked one absolutely essential thing: reaction GIFs for the ensuing discussions! With that in mind, I present to you some of my favorites (with the links so you can post them, too!)

When DeAndre Hopkins is taken by the Rams (or, you know, whatever prospect you really want is taken):

via i.imgur.com

When a team makes an incredible reach (I'm looking at you, Seahawks):

via i.imgur.com

When the inevitable flame war breaks out between two or more people who disagree about a pick:

via 1.bp.blogspot.com

When you correctly predict a pick:

When a top prospect slides to the Colts:

via i.imgur.com

When Jacksonville does what Jacksonville always does:

via i.imgur.com

When Grigson (or any GM I guess) makes an awesome pick:

via i.imgur.com

When someone calls you out on your analysis:

via i.imgur.com

And finally, IF the Colts make a bad selection:

via i.imgur.com

When DeAndre Hopkins is taken by the Rams (or, you know, whatever prospect you really want is taken):

via i.imgur.com

When a team makes an incredible reach (I'm looking at you, Seahawks):

via i.imgur.com

When the inevitable flame war breaks out between two or more people who disagree about a pick:

via 1.bp.blogspot.com

When you correctly predict a pick:

When a top prospect slides to the Colts:

via i.imgur.com

When Jacksonville does what Jacksonville always does:

via i.imgur.com

When Grigson (or any GM I guess) makes an awesome pick:

via i.imgur.com

When someone calls you out on your analysis:

via i.imgur.com

And finally, IF the Colts make a bad selection:

via i.imgur.com

Really pleased with Stampede Blue

jbacon55 — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:41:11 -0000

As many of us have seen recently, a fellow member of this ~~terrible~~ esteeemed blog posted a short rant about his displeasure with Stampede Blue's writers. His reasoning was along the lines of "dood y no draft stuff wtf man" which has left many of us believing he is either blind or just a troll. With that in mind, I think it's high time we give credit where it's due. Brad and co. have been awesome this off season. Be it Brad analyzing draft visits, Josh Wilson offering up detailed profiles, Evan organizing and running the community mock draft, or one of the plethora of other features, this blog has delivered in a big way. Sure Brad writes some things that piss us off ("OMG FAIR WEATHER FANS!!11"), but I'd take him and his self-depricating humor over most bloggers any day.

As if that weren't enough, the community of readers has been outstanding. I look forward to checking new Fan Posts and joining new discussion threads every day. The efforts of some of you have been especially noteworthy given the extraordinary quality and insight of your contributions combined with the fact that you aren't paid and (presumably) have other commitments on your time (think CAeveryday's long mock draft or Chapman Will Hug You's series on free agency, and those are just the very first two to come to mind). I wish I had the time to go through and list every great Fan Post and every great member, but alas I don't have the many hours it would take. Suffice it to say that you all have made the offseason as fun as the actual football season.

So thank you to all the writers and fan contributors of this blog. You all rule.

Community mock draft results!

jbacon55 — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 02:08:42 -0000

Round 1:

Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT
Jaguars: Dion Jordan, DE
Raiders: Star Lotulelei, DT
Eagles: Eric Fisher, OT
Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Browns: DeMarcus Milliner, CB
Cardinals: Chance Warmack, G
Bills: Lane Johnson, OT
Jets: Geno Smith, QB
Titans: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB
Chargers: Xavier Rhodes, CB
Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE
Buccaneers: Sharrif Floyd, DT
Panthers: Kenny Vaccaro, S
Saints: Jarvis Jones, OLB
Rams: Tavon Austin, WR
Steelers: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper, G
Giants: Sheldon Richardson, DT
Bears: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Bengals: Arthur Brown, ILB
Rams: Jonathan Cyprien, S
Vikings: Alec Ogletree, ILB
Colts: Tank Carradine, DE/OLB
Vikings: Johnathan Hankins, DT
Packers: Keenan Allen, WR
Texans: Kevin Minter, ILB
Broncos: Bjoern Werner, DE
Patriots: Robert Woods, WR
Falcons: Desmond Trufant, CB
49ers: Datone Jones, DE
Ravens: Manti Te'o, ILB

Round 2

Jaguars: D.J. Swearinger, S
49ers: Eric Reid, S
Eagles: EJ Manuel, QB
Lions: Jamar Taylor, CB
Bengals: D.J. Fluker, OT
Cardinals: Damontre Moore, DE/OLB
Jets: Matt Elam, S
Titans: Jonathan Banks, CB
Bills: Ryan Nassib, QB
Dolphins: Larry Warford, G
Buccaneers: Zach Ertz, TE
Panthers: Terron Armstead, OT
Chargers: Menelik Watson, OT
Rams: Eddie Lacy, RB
Cowboys: Alex Okafor, DE/OLB
Steelers: Justin Pugh, G
Giants: Margus Hunt, DE/OLB
Bears: Dallas Thomas, G/OT
Redskins: Logan Ryan, CB
Vikings: Aaron Dobson, WR
Bengals: Giovanni Bernard, RB
Dolphins: Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB
Packers: Jesse Williams, DT
Seahawks: Kawann Short, DT
Texans: Quinton Patton, WR
Broncos: Johnathan Jenkins, DT
Patriots: Tyrann Mathieu, CB
Falcons: Sylvester Williams, DT
49ers: Jordan Poyer, CB
Ravens: Justin Hunter, WR

Round 3

Chiefs: Stedman Bailey, WR
Jaguars: Oday Aboushi, G
Lions: Kyle Long, G
Raiders: Matt Barkley
Eagles: Phillip Thomas, S
Browns: Tyler Wilson, QB
Cardinals: Mike Glennon, QB
Titans: Travis Kelce, TE
Bills: Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB
Jets: Jonathan Franklin, RB
Buccaneers: Darius Slay, CB
49ers: Ryan Swope, WR
Saints: Brandon Williams, DT
Chargers: Khaseem Greene, OLB
Dolphins: D.J. Hayden, CB
Rams: Jamie Collins, OLB
Steelers: Corey Lemonier, OLB
Cowboys: Shamarko Thomas, S
Giants: Da'Rick Rogers, WR
Dolphins: Jordan Mills, OT
Vikings: Travis Frederick, C
Bengals: Baccari Rambo, S
Redskins: Brian Winters, OT
Colts: Le'Veon Bell, RB
Seahawks: Trevardo Williams, OLB
Packers: Christine Michael, RB
Texans: David Amerson, CB
Broncos: Barrett Jones, C/G/OT
Patriots: Marcus Lattimore, RB
Falcons: Sio Moore, OLB/DE
49ers: Gavin Escobar, TE
Ravens: Brian Schwenke, C
Texans: Bennie Logan, DT
Chiefs: Nico Jordan, ILB
Titans: William Gholston, DE

Big, huge, gigantic thanks to TheFreakSFG for maintaining the spreadsheet throughout, and obviously a big thanks to Evan for putting this all together. Finally, thanks to everyone who participated; it was a lot of fun and really insightful.

Round 1:

Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT
Jaguars: Dion Jordan, DE
Raiders: Star Lotulelei, DT
Eagles: Eric Fisher, OT
Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Browns: DeMarcus Milliner, CB
Cardinals: Chance Warmack, G
Bills: Lane Johnson, OT
Jets: Geno Smith, QB
Titans: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB
Chargers: Xavier Rhodes, CB
Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE
Buccaneers: Sharrif Floyd, DT
Panthers: Kenny Vaccaro, S
Saints: Jarvis Jones, OLB
Rams: Tavon Austin, WR
Steelers: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper, G
Giants: Sheldon Richardson, DT
Bears: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Bengals: Arthur Brown, ILB
Rams: Jonathan Cyprien, S
Vikings: Alec Ogletree, ILB
Colts: Tank Carradine, DE/OLB
Vikings: Johnathan Hankins, DT
Packers: Keenan Allen, WR
Texans: Kevin Minter, ILB
Broncos: Bjoern Werner, DE
Patriots: Robert Woods, WR
Falcons: Desmond Trufant, CB
49ers: Datone Jones, DE
Ravens: Manti Te'o, ILB

Round 2

Jaguars: D.J. Swearinger, S
49ers: Eric Reid, S
Eagles: EJ Manuel, QB
Lions: Jamar Taylor, CB
Bengals: D.J. Fluker, OT
Cardinals: Damontre Moore, DE/OLB
Jets: Matt Elam, S
Titans: Jonathan Banks, CB
Bills: Ryan Nassib, QB
Dolphins: Larry Warford, G
Buccaneers: Zach Ertz, TE
Panthers: Terron Armstead, OT
Chargers: Menelik Watson, OT
Rams: Eddie Lacy, RB
Cowboys: Alex Okafor, DE/OLB
Steelers: Justin Pugh, G
Giants: Margus Hunt, DE/OLB
Bears: Dallas Thomas, G/OT
Redskins: Logan Ryan, CB
Vikings: Aaron Dobson, WR
Bengals: Giovanni Bernard, RB
Dolphins: Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB
Packers: Jesse Williams, DT
Seahawks: Kawann Short, DT
Texans: Quinton Patton, WR
Broncos: Johnathan Jenkins, DT
Patriots: Tyrann Mathieu, CB
Falcons: Sylvester Williams, DT
49ers: Jordan Poyer, CB
Ravens: Justin Hunter, WR

Round 3

Chiefs: Stedman Bailey, WR
Jaguars: Oday Aboushi, G
Lions: Kyle Long, G
Raiders: Matt Barkley
Eagles: Phillip Thomas, S
Browns: Tyler Wilson, QB
Cardinals: Mike Glennon, QB
Titans: Travis Kelce, TE
Bills: Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB
Jets: Jonathan Franklin, RB
Buccaneers: Darius Slay, CB
49ers: Ryan Swope, WR
Saints: Brandon Williams, DT
Chargers: Khaseem Greene, OLB
Dolphins: D.J. Hayden, CB
Rams: Jamie Collins, OLB
Steelers: Corey Lemonier, OLB
Cowboys: Shamarko Thomas, S
Giants: Da'Rick Rogers, WR
Dolphins: Jordan Mills, OT
Vikings: Travis Frederick, C
Bengals: Baccari Rambo, S
Redskins: Brian Winters, OT
Colts: Le'Veon Bell, RB
Seahawks: Trevardo Williams, OLB
Packers: Christine Michael, RB
Texans: David Amerson, CB
Broncos: Barrett Jones, C/G/OT
Patriots: Marcus Lattimore, RB
Falcons: Sio Moore, OLB/DE
49ers: Gavin Escobar, TE
Ravens: Brian Schwenke, C
Texans: Bennie Logan, DT
Chiefs: Nico Jordan, ILB
Titans: William Gholston, DE

ATTENTION Community Draft participants and potential alternates! Please read!

jbacon55 — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 04:13:09 -0000

So the thing I'm most excited about this week is the upcoming Community Draft. I was fortunate enough to see it before the spots were taken and was able to land the Bears. They don't have a 3rd round pick, but they're my second favorite team. Anyway, I noticed a few people who wanted to sign up but were too late. I saw a couple people offer to share their responsibilities with potential alternates and decided I'd do the same. So, first off, would anyone who missed the opportunity to sign up like to collaborate with me on setting the Bears' draft board; I've already set my own but I'm happy to rework it in conjunction with a fellow football fan. I figured we could collaborate on our big board via e-mail or something.

With that in mind, I figured this could be a good venue for any other "GMs" who'd be willing to share their responsibilities with someone who might not have been so quick to respond to Evan's initial post. This seems like it's going to be a lot of fun, so why not make sure as many of us as possible get to participate? Sharing is caring!

Playing Devil's Advocate: Was signing DHB a bad move?

jbacon55 — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 05:48:10 -0000

We got him. Great signing. Stoked. So excited. Such were the reactions in the comments section on Brad's article about the Colts signing Darrius Heyward-Bey. Given the qualities many of us have been saying we want in a wideout, it's easy to see why so many are excited about DHB suiting up for the Colts. He's got good height (6' 2"), good size (218 lbs), and speed to spare (4.3 second 40). He doesn't have the ultra-elite measurables of a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, but his blazing speed makes up for it. Additionally, many are excited that it's a one-year "prove it" deal that is ultra low risk for the Colts.

So what's not to like?

Well, a number of things. In fact, the potential drawbacks might outweigh the benefits of the signing. Before I go any farther, let me make this one disclaimer: I'm not entirely sure how I feel about DHB yet, but I'm leaning on the side of positive. I'm only writing this to make sure both sides of the question are available for discussion. With that said, let's dive into the reasons why signing DHB will hurt the Colts.

The Colts will likely pass on a WR in round 1. On face, this seems like a silly reason to decry the signing. Of course the Colts won't draft a WR in round 1; DHB fills that need. The problem is that there are going to be a few receivers who have the skill set to be truly elite, and who will come much cheaper in the long run. Whether you prefer DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, or even later-round prospects like Robert Woods, the draft is stacked with receivers who have high upside. My personal favorite of the bunch is DeAndre Hopkins. He's got decent size, solid game speed, catches everything in his zip code, and appears to be ultra humble and unselfish (note: I'm a huge sucker for those last two). The problem here is that DHB's skill set is mirrored by a number of these prospects. The natural argument is that signing DHB will allow us to address other needs at #24, but to be honest there aren't many legitimately solid prospects. The two pass rushers that have been brandied about (Datone Jones and Damontre Moore) both have a lot of downside due to maturity concerns, work ethic, and, in Jones's case, motor. We need a long term game-changer at receiver, which leads to the second point...
DHB will not become elite. DHB certainly has (most of) the physical tools necessary to become a tremendous game breaker, but he's just not a very good receiver. Zach Kruse of BleacherReport.com wrote an interesting article addressing the question of whether DHB is a "diamond in the rough" or "just another Raiders bust." You can read the full text here. For those of you who don't have the time or the interest, the general gist is that he drops far too many balls and runs really shoddy routes. The copy-pasteable excuse for his lack of production over the past four years is that Oakland has had one of the worst coaching and quarterbacking situations over the past several years. Unfortunately for the Colts, the person throwing the ball doesn't affect the quality of your routes or your ability to catch (assuming the pass was catchable). Even if I'm wrong, however, this is still a harmful signing because.....
His contract is too short. I totally understand why he was signed to a 1 year deal. It protects the Colts in case he busts for the afore-mentioned reasons. The problem is that if he does have a stand-out year, we'll suddenly have to overpay to retain him in free agency. The way to avoid all of this would have been to sign him to a 2 year deal with 2.5 million guaranteed. It would have cost us 1 million more, but would have given us time to negotiate or find his replacement. Finally....
The Colts overpaid and Ryan Grigson is the worst GM of all time. Neither of those are actually true; I just felt weird ending a numbered list with only three points.

Will DHB suddenly blossom and have a break-out year? I certainly hope so. Indianapolis is a far better franchise than Oakland, and if he is going to finally live up to his potential, it will be here. The obvious way for the Colts to insulate themselves is to just go ahead and draft a receiver in the first round, but I doubt Grigson and company will given this signing. My gut says DHB will become a star, but my head isn't so sure.

So what's not to like?

The Colts will likely pass on a WR in round 1. On face, this seems like a silly reason to decry the signing. Of course the Colts won't draft a WR in round 1; DHB fills that need. The problem is that there are going to be a few receivers who have the skill set to be truly elite, and who will come much cheaper in the long run. Whether you prefer DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, or even later-round prospects like Robert Woods, the draft is stacked with receivers who have high upside. My personal favorite of the bunch is DeAndre Hopkins. He's got decent size, solid game speed, catches everything in his zip code, and appears to be ultra humble and unselfish (note: I'm a huge sucker for those last two). The problem here is that DHB's skill set is mirrored by a number of these prospects. The natural argument is that signing DHB will allow us to address other needs at #24, but to be honest there aren't many legitimately solid prospects. The two pass rushers that have been brandied about (Datone Jones and Damontre Moore) both have a lot of downside due to maturity concerns, work ethic, and, in Jones's case, motor. We need a long term game-changer at receiver, which leads to the second point...
DHB will not become elite. DHB certainly has (most of) the physical tools necessary to become a tremendous game breaker, but he's just not a very good receiver. Zach Kruse of BleacherReport.com wrote an interesting article addressing the question of whether DHB is a "diamond in the rough" or "just another Raiders bust." You can read the full text here. For those of you who don't have the time or the interest, the general gist is that he drops far too many balls and runs really shoddy routes. The copy-pasteable excuse for his lack of production over the past four years is that Oakland has had one of the worst coaching and quarterbacking situations over the past several years. Unfortunately for the Colts, the person throwing the ball doesn't affect the quality of your routes or your ability to catch (assuming the pass was catchable). Even if I'm wrong, however, this is still a harmful signing because.....
His contract is too short. I totally understand why he was signed to a 1 year deal. It protects the Colts in case he busts for the afore-mentioned reasons. The problem is that if he does have a stand-out year, we'll suddenly have to overpay to retain him in free agency. The way to avoid all of this would have been to sign him to a 2 year deal with 2.5 million guaranteed. It would have cost us 1 million more, but would have given us time to negotiate or find his replacement. Finally....
The Colts overpaid and Ryan Grigson is the worst GM of all time. Neither of those are actually true; I just felt weird ending a numbered list with only three points.

Has Ryan Grigson overpaid new signings, and does it matter?

jbacon55 — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 19:33:23 -0000

In the wake of some questionably large contracts, there has been a lot of shock about Grigson's moves both on this blog and in the greater football world. After his brilliant performance last offseason, we expected him to make shrewd deals that catapulted the Colts into contention for the AFC South title while simultaneously setting us up for success in the future. So far, Grigson has signed these players, not including offered tenders (PFF's grade for last season in parentheses):

Pat McAfee, P, Indianapolis (+51.7)
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Detroit (+23.5)
Donald Thomas, G, New England (+11.2)
Greg Toler, CB, Arizona (+6.8)
Darius Butler, CB, Indianapolis (+5.5)
Ricky Jean-Francois, DT/DE, San Francisco (+2.2)
Lawrence Sidbury, DE/OLB, Atlanta (-0.6)
Fili Moala, DE, Indianapolis (-1.1)
LaRon Landry, S, NYJ (-3.5)
Erik Walden, OLB, Green Bay (-25.4)

So, from the looks of this list and the corresponding grades, this has been a pretty successful free agency period so far. The big question is whether Grigson overpaid.
If sports journalists are to be believed, there has been no worse signing for any team so far than the contract the Colts gave Erik Walden. Walden has been graded by PFF as literally the worst edge defender in free agency--receiving a whopping -25.4. This is especially staggering since he is replacing Dwight Freeney who graded out at -0.5, literally 5000% better than Walden. All of this is compounded by the fact that he was offered 16 million dollars over four years. Was Walden overpaid? Absolutely. The more important question here is whether it really matters. In short: no. This contract only comes with 4 million dollars guaranteed. If we cut Walden after one season (or even prior to one season), the cap implications are trivial at worst. If we wind up paying him the full 16 million dollars, it means either Grigson and Irsay have gone insane or that Walden has played well. Contrary to popular belief, this is a very low risk signing.

Next up is Ricky Jean-Francois. He was signed to a 4 year, $22 million deal. Again, many agree that he was overpaid because he is an unproven commodity. Unfortunately, I don't yet know how much is guaranteed. Remember, the total salary does not determine whether a player was overpaid; the guaranteed money does. Regardless, what we do know is that RJF fills a tremendous need on our defense. He doesn't bring much to the table in terms of a pass rush, but 3-4 DEs are supposed to set the edge against the run, and run defense is what RJF is good at. As it stands, he replaces the underperforming Fili Moala. If you put faith in PFF's rankings, that is a 300% improvement. Does his play over the past few seasons merit $5 million per year? Probably not, but it merits pretty close to that. If paying an extra 1 or 2 million dollars per year is what it took to pry him away from other teams, so be it. Let's examine that in terms of opportunity cost. We'll assume RJF was overpaid by $1.5 million for this analysis. Under the new CBA, that amounts to about 3 young veterans with between 2 and 4 years of service. A player who has hit free agency after 2 to 4 years of service and commands nothing but the veteran minimum is usually nothing but a camp body. It's possible they will experience lots of success and become a quality starter, but probably not.

The last player worth considering is LaRon Landry. Landry was signed to a 4 year deal worth 24 million dollars with a whopping 14 million dollars guaranteed. Again, this is an example of overpaying, but the next question is whether it really matters. The answer: yes. This is the only signing that could potentially damage the team. Landry was solid last year, but still graded out negatively. I don't mind the signing in theory, though, because signing a llama with a football helmet would provide an upgrade over Zbikowski's play. I'm not even opposed to offering Landry such a high average salary. Yes, 6 million per year is on par with what elite safeties are paid, but it's an upgrade we desperately needed. So why is this signing different than the other two I've mentioned? Two reasons. 1) The guaranteed money is off the charts, and 2) Landry is injury prone. Either one of those in a vacuum wouldn't bee too much of a problem, but combined they result in some serious concerns. Of the past three seasons, Landry has wound up on IR for 2. During those two seasons, he missed something like a combined 15 games. On the other hand, Landry started every game last season. If we have to cut Landry because of persistent injuries (see: Sanders, Bob), it could have significant cap ramifications, especially if he's cut early in the deal.

With all that said, I still think Grigson is taking too much heat for "overpaying." Yes, we offered a number of players way more money than they probably deserve, but most of them were either necessary upgrades (like Gosder Cherilus and RJF) or are low-risk due to little guaranteed money (like Walden and Sidbury). LaRon Landry's contract is the only one I am upset about, especially given that we could easily have drafted an impact safety in the first round (of Vaccaro, Elam, Reid, and Cyprien, one will be available at 24). The only real concern I have with Grigson's off season moves is the potential that he will rely on Walden and Toler to be starters; neither is good enough to be a quality starter. That question, however, is outside the scope of this article.

tl;dr: Grigson hasn't hurt the team by overpaying.

Pat McAfee, P, Indianapolis (+51.7)
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Detroit (+23.5)
Donald Thomas, G, New England (+11.2)
Greg Toler, CB, Arizona (+6.8)
Darius Butler, CB, Indianapolis (+5.5)
Ricky Jean-Francois, DT/DE, San Francisco (+2.2)
Lawrence Sidbury, DE/OLB, Atlanta (-0.6)
Fili Moala, DE, Indianapolis (-1.1)
LaRon Landry, S, NYJ (-3.5)
Erik Walden, OLB, Green Bay (-25.4)

Well, the Colts have whiffed on some of the top names.

jbacon55 — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 21:10:43 -0000

Scratch Paul Kruger (Browns, ~8 million/year), Louis Vasquez (~6 million/year), and Andy Levitre (~8 million/year) from your wish lists, folks.

I'm not sure how I feel about this news. Obviously I'm upset about Vasquez, especially given his relatively low cap hit. We all seemed to agree that Kruger wouldn't be worth the 12 million per year we thought he was going to get, and so we were happy to see him go to the Browns. However, an 8 million dollar hit should have been something the Colts tried to beat. I didn't really want Levitre anyway.

No word yet on Cliff Avril, Mike Jenkins, or (my most desired signing) Danario Alexander. Though we do know Nnamdi was released by Philadelphia, so maybe we might get the world's most underwhelming consolation prize.

So, how do you all feel?

By the way, I'm going off of nfl.com's site. http://www.nfl.com/freeagency

I have not yet reached the word minimum.

Now I have.

Scratch Paul Kruger (Browns, ~8 million/year), Louis Vasquez (~6 million/year), and Andy Levitre (~8 million/year) from your wish lists, folks.

So, how do you all feel?

By the way, I'm going off of nfl.com's site. http://www.nfl.com/freeagency

I have not yet reached the word minimum.

Now I have.

(Updated x3) Ryan Grigson is a terrible GM.

jbacon55 — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 20:43:18 -0000

The league year began almost an hour ago and he still has signed ANYONE. I say we fire this chump and move on.

But seriously though, I know we're all tremendously anxious for news regarding acquisitions to start rolling in. It has been a long, long pre-off-season filled with rampant speculation (at last check, there were reports that the Colts have interest in roughly every free agent). I know we have to be patient, but it's really difficult. So, while we wait, why not have one last shot at ranking potential free agents?

Danario Alexander, WR, San Diego. This is probably a curveball for a lot of you; most people would put a guard or pass rusher at number one, but ever since San Diego only gave Alexander the lowest possible tender, it seems like a no-brainer. If we snatch him from SD, we won't lose any draft picks. Additionally, he'd probably come cheap relative to his talent level. Danario Alexander absolutely must be pursued.
Louis Vasquez, G, San Diego. Duh. Looks like Peyton is never going to be sacked ever again.
Walden being told he's going to start. ~~SIGNED.~~ ~~False alarm.~~ ~~Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Detroit.~~ I know, I know. He's going to demand a lot of money and there's no guarantee he can play OLB. However, if we can get him for 9-10 mil/year, I think we have to pull the trigger. He's young, healthy, and tremendously talented. The only question I have regarding his talent level is how much of an impact playing alongside Ndamukong Suh had. Meaning we probably aren't going to bring in Cliff Avril.
SIGNED. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Detroit. He's no Phil Loadholt or Sebastian Vollmer, but he was Detroit's best lineman and would be a tremendous upgrade at right tackle.
Mike Jenkins, CB, Dallas. We've all seen the reasons for signing Jenkins. Let's move on.
Chris Gronkowski, FB, Denver. We need a full back, and unless we think we can find a capable starter in round 6 or as a UDFA, he'll be our best value option.
Antoine Cason, CB, San Diego. This is a plan B in case we can't sign Jenkins. He's not a big name corner, and he isn't tremendously good either. He'd be a cheap, capable starter opposite Vontae Davis until we can find a banner CB2. Perhaps this could be an insurance policy in case we try to find our CB2 in the draft this year.
Ed Reed, S, Baltimore. Ed Reed has been really divisive on this blog recently. He is absolutely not a long term answer. He isn't even a short term answer. He's the definition of a one-year stopgap until we can find a safety of the future. We'll have a shot at either a CB or a safety in the first round of the draft. If we plan on targeting a safety, we should only sign Reed if we think he could be a good mentor to a raw player with high upside (think Elam or Reid).
Dashon Goldson, S, San Francisco. He's one of the best safeties in football, but he'll come at a hefty price tag. He should only be pursued if we do not sign any other big-name, big-price players (i.e. if we whiff on Vasquez and Avril). LaRon Landry supposedly signed. I'm surprisingly okay with this.

So, what do you think?

The league year began almost an hour ago and he still has signed ANYONE. I say we fire this chump and move on.

Danario Alexander, WR, San Diego. This is probably a curveball for a lot of you; most people would put a guard or pass rusher at number one, but ever since San Diego only gave Alexander the lowest possible tender, it seems like a no-brainer. If we snatch him from SD, we won't lose any draft picks. Additionally, he'd probably come cheap relative to his talent level. Danario Alexander absolutely must be pursued.
Louis Vasquez, G, San Diego. Duh. Looks like Peyton is never going to be sacked ever again.
Walden being told he's going to start. ~~SIGNED.~~ ~~False alarm.~~ ~~Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Detroit.~~ I know, I know. He's going to demand a lot of money and there's no guarantee he can play OLB. However, if we can get him for 9-10 mil/year, I think we have to pull the trigger. He's young, healthy, and tremendously talented. The only question I have regarding his talent level is how much of an impact playing alongside Ndamukong Suh had. Meaning we probably aren't going to bring in Cliff Avril.
SIGNED. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Detroit. He's no Phil Loadholt or Sebastian Vollmer, but he was Detroit's best lineman and would be a tremendous upgrade at right tackle.
Mike Jenkins, CB, Dallas. We've all seen the reasons for signing Jenkins. Let's move on.
Chris Gronkowski, FB, Denver. We need a full back, and unless we think we can find a capable starter in round 6 or as a UDFA, he'll be our best value option.
Antoine Cason, CB, San Diego. This is a plan B in case we can't sign Jenkins. He's not a big name corner, and he isn't tremendously good either. He'd be a cheap, capable starter opposite Vontae Davis until we can find a banner CB2. Perhaps this could be an insurance policy in case we try to find our CB2 in the draft this year.
Ed Reed, S, Baltimore. Ed Reed has been really divisive on this blog recently. He is absolutely not a long term answer. He isn't even a short term answer. He's the definition of a one-year stopgap until we can find a safety of the future. We'll have a shot at either a CB or a safety in the first round of the draft. If we plan on targeting a safety, we should only sign Reed if we think he could be a good mentor to a raw player with high upside (think Elam or Reid).
Dashon Goldson, S, San Francisco. He's one of the best safeties in football, but he'll come at a hefty price tag. He should only be pursued if we do not sign any other big-name, big-price players (i.e. if we whiff on Vasquez and Avril). LaRon Landry supposedly signed. I'm surprisingly okay with this.

So, what do you think?

Poll

How awesome is the strikethrough feature?

Super awesome

10 votes

10 votes | Poll has closed

Short post: which Colts sophomore are you most anxious to see take the next step in 2013?

jbacon55 — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 06:42:59 -0000

First off, I'm writing this on my phone, and ever since it upgraded from Android 4.0 to 4.1 it hasn't been autocorrecting. I apologize for any mispellings or typos.

That said, I'm interested in which sophomores you all will be watching closest this season. The obvious answer is Andrew Luck, so let's leave him out of the conversation for now. Of all the other rookies playing for the Colts in 2012, which are you most anxious to see develop?

I'm torn between a couple. Topping my list is Josh Chapman. He's sort of a mythical figure at this point--a physically overwhelming messiah who will come to save our defense. There is no way he will live up to expectations that have been hyperinflated by almost a full year of speculation about his play. In many ways, I think many fans (myself included) have burdened him with more unrealistic expectations than we did Andrew Luck; at least we all acknowledged Luck was a rookie and was entitled to make some rookie mistakes. Unless we take Jenkins, Williams, or Hankins with our first pick the stakes will be high for Chapman. Fail and odds are our defense doesn't see any significant improvement on first and second down. Succeed and all of the sudden we have a reliable defensive line.

Next up for me might be a curveball. It's a tie between two players: LaVon Brazill and Griff Whalen. If either of those two build on the promise they showed last regular and, in Whalen's case, pre season and we don't need to go find a #2 receiver anymore. I don't think either will become a true top target, but I could see one of them becoming an above-average #2. It's worth mentioning here that Hilton growing into a #2 role and one of those guys becoming a slot specialist (currently Hilton's bread and butter) would net the same result.

Finally, I will be watching Jerrell Freeman. Technically he wasn't a rookie because he came from the CFL, but he was an NFL rookie. Is he another Angerer: over achieving but not an impact player? Or will he continue to grow into a feature line backer? He has certainly flashed that playmaking ability, and I can't help being giddy at the thought of what he could do with another offseason of coaching and (hopefully) a proper NT eating up blocks for him.

The two most notable absences from this list are our TE tandem. Fleener would probably come next if I continued ranking the players. Dwayne Allen, on the other hand, was left off because he doesn't belong here. PFF ranked him as the second or third best T in the league last season. Not best rookie TE; best TE over all. It isn't a surprise: he's a ferocious blocker with sure hands and competent route running. He could very well be Gronkat a owski's heir apparent as best all-around TE. I left him off the list because even if he progresses at a snail's pace he will still be a capable starter. If we were instead discussing most exciting prospects he'd be second only to TY (and even then 4 times out of ten I'd rank him first).

First off, I'm writing this on my phone, and ever since it upgraded from Android 4.0 to 4.1 it hasn't been autocorrecting. I apologize for any mispellings or typos.

Short post: How do we define "overpaid"

jbacon55 — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 06:34:35 -0000

So, the period prior to free agency that allows, essentially, legal tampering is upon us. Between now and March 12th (4:00 pm New York time!), teams can talk with free-agents-to-be legally. We should be finding out soon just want kind of All-Pro roster Ryan Grigson will assemble for this upcoming season, and if the FanPosts on this blog are to be believed, it will consist of almost every free agent.

Jokes aside, certain players have emerged here as consensus wants (looking at you, Louis Vasquez). One of the things I like most about reading everyone's thoughts on free agency is that almost everyone is hyper-cognizant of cap implications. A number of names have been brandied about that most people would be happy to have but only at the right price (Nnamdi Asomugha, Ed Reed, but probably most notably Paul Kruger). This pervasive allergy to "over paying" has led to some discussions about how, exactly, we should define "overpaying." I figured I'd make this FanPost so we could have a centralized location for that discussion.

I'll start things off with my thoughts. It seems that there are two camps. The more traditional, more populous camp believes that players should only be paid commiserate with their on-field performance (relative to other players at their position, obviously). For this reason, people (perhaps rightfully) believe that Cliff Avril asking for 6 years/100 million dollars is extreme (spoiler alert: it is). For this school of thought, a player is overpaid if their production doesn't match their cap hit. It's easy to see why this is the more popular of the two groups: it is both simple and pragmatic.

The other camp takes a market-driven approach to setting a player's value: simply put, a player is worth as much as the market will pay for him. Under this school of thought, paying Cliff Avril 100 million over six years is acceptable if that's the contract it took to beat out the other teams. This group would define a player as overpaid if the contract he signed was significantly higher than competing offers (say Cliff Avril's nearest suitor only offered 70 or 80 million over the six year period). It's an interesting proposition because it changes the evaluation of a given signing considerably.

Let's consider the example of Paul Kruger, who is rumored to be on the verge of commanding $12 million/year. It's pretty clear that his production does not match his desired salary, but if that's what teams are willing to pay him, would we be "over paying" him if we signed him to such a contract? Is this even an important distinction?

What do you folks think?

2013 Draft: Biggest bust potential

jbacon55 — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 09:51:15 -0000

We are almost there. March 12th starts free agency, and then just about a month until the draft. By the end of April, we'll finally know who the Colts' new difference makers will be. With all the talk of who the Colts should (or shouldn't) take, one question has been rattling around my mind. In every draft there are busts--much like a crash in an auto racing event, they can be kind of fun to watch (so long as no one gets hurt). So here's my question: which players have the biggest bust potential?

With that in mind, here are my top candidates:

Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame. This has to be my top pick. Sure there are quarterbacks who will be taken in the first round who almost certainly won't live up to their pick, but this guy is tumbling down draft boards for good reason. For a long time he was considered a lock to be a top 10 pick, but the title game against Alabama exposed him as a middling talent at best. I know one game shouldn't make or break a player, but Alabama was really the only top-flight team Notre Dame played. ND is a huge hype machine. Since 2000, there have been about 45 players drafted from Notre Dame; only three of them have made the Pro Bowl. Of the first and second rounders taken from ND since 2000, only 1 has made the Pro Bowl: Kyle Rudolph, and he was like a third alternate. Add in character concerns, and there's a ton of bust potential. As it stands, I wouldn't take Te'o before the 3rd or 4th round.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama. Eddie Lacy is a solid back, but I have seen some mocks putting him as high as the top of the second round or even breaking into the late first. He's just not that good. He's slower than you might like at the position, and he's rising up draft boards just because of the shortage of quality RB prospects.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame. He's been really productive for Notre Dame, but all of the concerns I have with Manti Te'o I have with Tyler Eifert. Tyler is probably going to be more successful than Te'o given that he enjoyed some success against Alabama.
Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Barkley will probably be a decent NFL quarterback, but I doubt he'll ever become a franchise quarterback. I don't have many objective reasons for saying he's going to bust (save for his declining play this past season); I just don't trust USC quarterbacks. Consider their current alumni: Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart. Of those five, the only quality one is a younger Carson Palmer.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU. There is no doubt that Ziggy Ansah has the raw physical tools to become a dominant player. I'm not saying he will bust, just that there is definitely some potential that he might. I don't like the idea of taking a player as high as mock drafts are listing him who has as little experience as he does. It obviously worked out in a big way with Jason Pierre-Paul, so it totally could work. Just worried about taking him that high.
Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia. Is he a monster on the field for a top program against elite competition? Yes. I worry about his work ethic though. There have been reports that he doesn't put in much time in the weight room; he simply relies on his own natural ability. There are very, very few people who are naturally physically talented enough to succeed in the NFL without lots of work. Again, he will probably succeed, but I'm hesitant.

On a more positive note, I just want to mention the players I think will prove to have immense value. My top two are David Amerson and Robert Woods. Robert Woods was dominant but had an injury that he slowly battled back from. Amerson's problem is simply his coaching; he was too aggressive on the ball, and so he got beat over the top on double moves. Fix that and all of the sudden you have a top-flight corner drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

With that in mind, here are my top candidates:

Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame. This has to be my top pick. Sure there are quarterbacks who will be taken in the first round who almost certainly won't live up to their pick, but this guy is tumbling down draft boards for good reason. For a long time he was considered a lock to be a top 10 pick, but the title game against Alabama exposed him as a middling talent at best. I know one game shouldn't make or break a player, but Alabama was really the only top-flight team Notre Dame played. ND is a huge hype machine. Since 2000, there have been about 45 players drafted from Notre Dame; only three of them have made the Pro Bowl. Of the first and second rounders taken from ND since 2000, only 1 has made the Pro Bowl: Kyle Rudolph, and he was like a third alternate. Add in character concerns, and there's a ton of bust potential. As it stands, I wouldn't take Te'o before the 3rd or 4th round.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama. Eddie Lacy is a solid back, but I have seen some mocks putting him as high as the top of the second round or even breaking into the late first. He's just not that good. He's slower than you might like at the position, and he's rising up draft boards just because of the shortage of quality RB prospects.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame. He's been really productive for Notre Dame, but all of the concerns I have with Manti Te'o I have with Tyler Eifert. Tyler is probably going to be more successful than Te'o given that he enjoyed some success against Alabama.
Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Barkley will probably be a decent NFL quarterback, but I doubt he'll ever become a franchise quarterback. I don't have many objective reasons for saying he's going to bust (save for his declining play this past season); I just don't trust USC quarterbacks. Consider their current alumni: Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart. Of those five, the only quality one is a younger Carson Palmer.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU. There is no doubt that Ziggy Ansah has the raw physical tools to become a dominant player. I'm not saying he will bust, just that there is definitely some potential that he might. I don't like the idea of taking a player as high as mock drafts are listing him who has as little experience as he does. It obviously worked out in a big way with Jason Pierre-Paul, so it totally could work. Just worried about taking him that high.
Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia. Is he a monster on the field for a top program against elite competition? Yes. I worry about his work ethic though. There have been reports that he doesn't put in much time in the weight room; he simply relies on his own natural ability. There are very, very few people who are naturally physically talented enough to succeed in the NFL without lots of work. Again, he will probably succeed, but I'm hesitant.

Aside from the Colts, which team(s) do you want to see win the Super Bowl in 2014?

jbacon55 — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 00:23:27 -0000

We are now in full off-season mode, and I couldn't be more giddy. We all know things are looking up for our beloved Colts, but we must acknowledge that there is a chance, however remote, that and Andrew Luck and co. will not be hoisting the Lombardi trophy come next year. With that dreadful-though-unlikely thought in mind, I turn to our present question: if not the Colts, who do you want to see win the Super Bowl? Feel free to rank a few, but be sure to explain why!

For me:

Chicago Bears: I'm engaged to a Bears fan, so this kind of has to be my top choice. Hopefully it'd get me out of the dog house from 2006.
Denver Peyton Mannings: I'm torn on this one. On the one hand, everyone would love to see Peyton win his second ring with his second team. He'd be the only starting QB in NFL history to pull that off. On the other hand, I hate Jack Del Rio and John Elway. Ultimately, my love for Peyton knows no bounds. I'll endure John "I look like a horse and also refused to play for the Colts" Elway and Jack "I will always be the coach of the Jaguars" Del Rio getting a ring if it means Peyton solidifies his record as the best QB ever.
Dallas Cowboys: I'm sick of Romo getting all the crap that he does. He's a tremendous quarterback with a lackluster supporting cast. He gets all of the blame when he throws INTs as a result of, say, Dez Bryant running the wrong route. He's also an awesome guy, apparently. I heard a story about how he was driving one day, noticed a woman stranded with a flat tire, and stopped to change her tire for her. I'd like to see him win a Super Bowl, leave Dallas for a team that would appreciate him, and then win a few more.
New York Jets: How hilarious would it be for Mark Sanchez to have a Super Bowl MVP performance?
Houston Texans: They've paid their dues. It's time for Andre Johnson et. al. to win a ring.

There's my top five. What about you guys?

For me:

Chicago Bears: I'm engaged to a Bears fan, so this kind of has to be my top choice. Hopefully it'd get me out of the dog house from 2006.
Denver Peyton Mannings: I'm torn on this one. On the one hand, everyone would love to see Peyton win his second ring with his second team. He'd be the only starting QB in NFL history to pull that off. On the other hand, I hate Jack Del Rio and John Elway. Ultimately, my love for Peyton knows no bounds. I'll endure John "I look like a horse and also refused to play for the Colts" Elway and Jack "I will always be the coach of the Jaguars" Del Rio getting a ring if it means Peyton solidifies his record as the best QB ever.
Dallas Cowboys: I'm sick of Romo getting all the crap that he does. He's a tremendous quarterback with a lackluster supporting cast. He gets all of the blame when he throws INTs as a result of, say, Dez Bryant running the wrong route. He's also an awesome guy, apparently. I heard a story about how he was driving one day, noticed a woman stranded with a flat tire, and stopped to change her tire for her. I'd like to see him win a Super Bowl, leave Dallas for a team that would appreciate him, and then win a few more.
New York Jets: How hilarious would it be for Mark Sanchez to have a Super Bowl MVP performance?
Houston Texans: They've paid their dues. It's time for Andre Johnson et. al. to win a ring.

There's my top five. What about you guys?

The Colts should NOT pursue Percy Harvin

jbacon55 — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 23:44:14 -0000

The idea of Percy Harvin becoming a Colt has received a lot of attention on this blog in recent days. Between FanPosts, blog posts by our ~~douchebagy~~ fearless leader (zing!), and active comments sections, Percy Harvin appears to be getting way more attention than anyone named "Percy" actually deserves.

All joking aside, it's hard not to engage in some pie-in-the-sky speculation about a big name, big time player like Harvin coming to Indy. It'd certainly give us something new to be excited about for the upcoming season. However, I think trading for him would be an absolute mistake. There are a few compelling reasons why such a trade would be bad for the Colts. Let's take them each in turn.

He is injury prone. I know many people will point to the fact that in his first three seasons he's only missed something like 3 or 4 starts, and still others will say something like "derp it's football everyone has an injury history!" These are both valid points, but neither of them change the fact that Harvin is coming off a big knee injury and has chronic migraines. We can evaluate the knee and have an expected timetable for his return and have an idea about how likely a re-injury is. The bigger issue is the migraines. The problem with chronic migraines is that we don't know when one will strike. He could be fine all week only to wake up Sunday morning without the ability to open his eyes. The Colts have a history of awesome-but-often-injured players that wreak havoc on our team because of our inability to rely on them (Bob Sanders, Austin Collie, Joe Addai, Jerraud Powers, Dallas Clark, etc). This wouldn't even be a low risk/high reward situation, given that.....
He would be too expensive. I mean this both in terms of what we'd trade and what we'd have to give him when his contract expires at the end of next season. As far as a trade goes, odds are the bare minimum would be our 3rd round pick. That leaves us with only a 1, 4, and 6. Three picks. I get the argument that we might not find anyone of Harvin's caliber in the 3rd round, but that isn't always true. More to the point, though, WR isn't our most pressing need (more on that later). We need to use our picks to build depth at positions of need--DL, OL, OLB, DB, FB, and maybe RB. Even if we'd be okay sending a 3 to the Vikings, we'd still have to resign him at the end of next season. He would be a 4 million dollar cap hit this year. I can't begin to imagine how much he'd demand next year. Which brings us to our next point.....
He'll be a free agent next year. If we wait a year, we can sign him without giving up a draft pick. Even still, he'd be overpriced because.....
He does not fit a pressing need. I get it. Percy Harvin is electric. He's exciting. He's a threat to take it all the way every time he touches the ball. I'd love to have a guy like that on our team. That's why I'm thrilled that we already do. TY Hilton is our Percy Harvin. Before all you HarvinHeads go off about how TY Hilton isn't nearly as good as Harvin, please know that I agree. Hilton is a far cry from Harvin. However, there is no denying that Percy Harvin is still nothing more than a better, slightly taller, but slower TY Hilton. Rather than pay a boat load of money and picks for Harvin, I say we simply focus on developing TY. There are two things you cannot teach in the NFL: size and speed. TY is shorter than Harvin, but only by two inches, but far more importantly for WCO speed receiver is, well, speed. TY is faster than Harvin (their 40 times are almost a full second apart: 4.34 vs. 4.41). Don't forget, TY only averaged about 2 yards after catch less than Harvin (~6.3 compared to ~8.3). Besides, if we do trade for Harvin, we might find that.....
He is a product of a system. Or, well, he might be. A player like that could very easily be the product of a system that has one of the greatest running backs in the history of the league. With that type of run game, teams stack the box. When teams stack the box, bubble screens to wideouts tend to be extremely successful. Compare his average YAC to Hilton's average YAC (stats posted above). With the best run game in the league, Harvin was only able to eek out an extra 2 YAC per catch. But even if all of that were not true; even if he were great, there's still the problem of....
He is a head case. A player like that who openly asks to be traded prior to the start of a season, then again after the season, and has strained relationships with his coaching staff should raise some major red flags. He might be awesome, but if he's a locker room cancer then it might do more harm than good. At this point there is no room on the roster for a prima donna. He isn't an Albert Haynesworth or Titus Young, but he also isn't a Peyton Manning or Jeff Saturday.

So there you have it. Six reasons why we shouldn't pursue Percy Harvin. I get it why people want him; heck, even I really wanted him at first. At the end of the day, though, we can't get caught up in the dazzle of someone's big-play making ability.

He is injury prone. I know many people will point to the fact that in his first three seasons he's only missed something like 3 or 4 starts, and still others will say something like "derp it's football everyone has an injury history!" These are both valid points, but neither of them change the fact that Harvin is coming off a big knee injury and has chronic migraines. We can evaluate the knee and have an expected timetable for his return and have an idea about how likely a re-injury is. The bigger issue is the migraines. The problem with chronic migraines is that we don't know when one will strike. He could be fine all week only to wake up Sunday morning without the ability to open his eyes. The Colts have a history of awesome-but-often-injured players that wreak havoc on our team because of our inability to rely on them (Bob Sanders, Austin Collie, Joe Addai, Jerraud Powers, Dallas Clark, etc). This wouldn't even be a low risk/high reward situation, given that.....
He would be too expensive. I mean this both in terms of what we'd trade and what we'd have to give him when his contract expires at the end of next season. As far as a trade goes, odds are the bare minimum would be our 3rd round pick. That leaves us with only a 1, 4, and 6. Three picks. I get the argument that we might not find anyone of Harvin's caliber in the 3rd round, but that isn't always true. More to the point, though, WR isn't our most pressing need (more on that later). We need to use our picks to build depth at positions of need--DL, OL, OLB, DB, FB, and maybe RB. Even if we'd be okay sending a 3 to the Vikings, we'd still have to resign him at the end of next season. He would be a 4 million dollar cap hit this year. I can't begin to imagine how much he'd demand next year. Which brings us to our next point.....
He'll be a free agent next year. If we wait a year, we can sign him without giving up a draft pick. Even still, he'd be overpriced because.....
He does not fit a pressing need. I get it. Percy Harvin is electric. He's exciting. He's a threat to take it all the way every time he touches the ball. I'd love to have a guy like that on our team. That's why I'm thrilled that we already do. TY Hilton is our Percy Harvin. Before all you HarvinHeads go off about how TY Hilton isn't nearly as good as Harvin, please know that I agree. Hilton is a far cry from Harvin. However, there is no denying that Percy Harvin is still nothing more than a better, slightly taller, but slower TY Hilton. Rather than pay a boat load of money and picks for Harvin, I say we simply focus on developing TY. There are two things you cannot teach in the NFL: size and speed. TY is shorter than Harvin, but only by two inches, but far more importantly for WCO speed receiver is, well, speed. TY is faster than Harvin (their 40 times are almost a full second apart: 4.34 vs. 4.41). Don't forget, TY only averaged about 2 yards after catch less than Harvin (~6.3 compared to ~8.3). Besides, if we do trade for Harvin, we might find that.....
He is a product of a system. Or, well, he might be. A player like that could very easily be the product of a system that has one of the greatest running backs in the history of the league. With that type of run game, teams stack the box. When teams stack the box, bubble screens to wideouts tend to be extremely successful. Compare his average YAC to Hilton's average YAC (stats posted above). With the best run game in the league, Harvin was only able to eek out an extra 2 YAC per catch. But even if all of that were not true; even if he were great, there's still the problem of....
He is a head case. A player like that who openly asks to be traded prior to the start of a season, then again after the season, and has strained relationships with his coaching staff should raise some major red flags. He might be awesome, but if he's a locker room cancer then it might do more harm than good. At this point there is no room on the roster for a prima donna. He isn't an Albert Haynesworth or Titus Young, but he also isn't a Peyton Manning or Jeff Saturday.

Stop with the talk of trading back to get multiple second round picks

jbacon55 — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 00:51:43 -0000

UPDATE: People in the comments seem to think I'm advocating for trading back. I'm not necessarily. I'm just shooting down the argument that if we did, we could land a pair of 2nd round picks.

Recently, I've seen a number of comments suggesting that the Colts should trade back in the Draft in the hopes of getting "a couple of second round picks." This is absolutely impossible unless we package another pick or another player. To see why, consult the trade chart, available here.

The Colts' first rounder is worth 740 points, which means to pull this trade off we'd need to find a combination of 2nd round picks worth roughly that much. However, we can't just target any two picks. We can only attempt to trade for an existing pair of 2nd round picks. That leaves us only with Cincinnati's pair (37, 53) and Miami (42, 54).

Let's start by considering the better pair: Cincinnati's 37 and 53. From the value chart, those picks are worth 530 points and 370 points, respectively. The total is thus 900 points, a full 160 points more than what our first round pick is worth. We'd have to package our 3rd round pick (worth 160) to swing that trade. We couldn't package our 4th because it's only worth 58 points. Even in conjunction with our 6th it's too little. The result is that instead of 1, 3, 4, and 6, we're left with 2, 2, 4, and 6. We'd be moving back 12 spots with our top pick to jump forward 33 spots with our second overall pick. The problem is that we'd be moving back in the hopes that someone we really want would be available much later in the draft. If there isn't anyone worth taking at 24, it may be worth it, but there's no way to tell whether someone else we really want would fall to us at 86. But, if we instead compare this to a trade for a 2nd and 3rd (discussed below) all we're really getting by giving up our existing 3rd is the chance to move up from 86th to something like 71st; we'd be giving up our 3rd round pick to move up in that round by less than 20 spots.

What about Miami's pair? Miami picks 42nd and 54th, worth 480 points and 360 points, respectively. The total now is thus 840, still 100 points more than what our first rounder is worth. To pull this trade off we'd need to package our 4th, 6th, and something else because that still leaves us about 25 points short. Grigs might be able to swing that, but I'm not sure we'd want to be left with only 3 picks in the draft--2, 2, and 3.

All this said, if we trade away our first round pick, I'd much rather it be for, say, the top 2 (33), 4 (97), and 5 (129) or for something like the 7th pick in the 2nd (39) and 3rd (71) (both worth 745).

UPDATE: People in the comments seem to think I'm advocating for trading back. I'm not necessarily. I'm just shooting down the argument that if we did, we could land a pair of 2nd round picks.

An offseason wish list with new, fresh names

jbacon55 — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 19:19:21 -0000

So I know this is, perhaps, the least original idea in all of the internet, but it should be fun! So let's dive right in.

Resignings, in order of importance:

Pat McAfee, P: He's great and getting better. We don't need to create another hole on the team by not resigning him.

Moise Fokou, ILB: He performed admirably, and we could use depth at the position.

Winston Justice, OT: When he was healthy, he was solid. He's also a vocal leader of the team.

Cassius Vaughn and/or Darius Butler, CB: I've argued a lot recently that Vaughn has been the better CB because I've felt that people have been blinded by the fact that Butler had more INTs. Recently, though, I've started to come around to thinking Butler might be better in coverage. Either way, we should resign one or both of them. If they come cheaply, signing both would be fantastic. We'd have our CB1, CB3, and CB4 in place.

Adam Vinatieri, K: I know he isn't a free agent this year, but I'm worried he might retire. He's obviously on his last leg (no pun intended), but similar to resigning McAfee, there's no reason we should create another need on the team by losing Vinatieri. Unless there will be some solid UDFA kickers, we need to do everything we can to prevent him from departing.

Jeff Linkenbach, G/T: I know, I know. He sucks. But there's no denying that he's a decent back up. I think we need to bring back one of the back up guards we have, and it certainly isn't Seth Olsen. A traffic cone with a football helmet would block better than Olsen.

Needs:

Offensive line: we need one. But seriously though, I'd rank our needs like this: OG, OG, C, RT. I think we're set at one of the offensive guard positions because we have Seth Olsen. That guy is a franchise pass protector. (It's funny because he sucks)

Rush OLB: We need someone to replace Freeney. He was a huge disappointment this year, and our pass rush was one of the big reasons we could not defend the pass.

CB2: We need someone to line up opposite Vontae Davis. Also a reason we couldn't defend the pass.

SS: Tommy Z seems like a pretty fun guy, but he really kind of sucks. If I had a dollar for every missed tackle he had, I suspect I could pay for a safety upgrade myself.

DEx2: As mentioned constantly, Cory Redding was awesome but injury prone. We need two more solid DEs, one capable of being a 16 game starter.

WR2: I think most of us are in agreement that TY Hilton is on his way to being a super star, but he's not a true #2 receiver. He could become a poor man's Percy Harvin, but without the awesome hands. I'd like another possession receiver who might not be as fast, but is more reliable in the hands department. It's entirely possible that our WR2 is already on the roster: I'd like Griff Whalen, Kris Adams, and LaVon Brazill to audition for the role.

NT: We need someone better than Antonio Johnson and Martin Tevaseu at NT. Johnson played admirably given the fact that he was thrust into the role as a result of circumstance, but he isn't the answer. Tevaseu is a good back up, but not a 16 game starter. Again, it's possible (if not likely) that our NT is already on the roster: I drink the Chapman Kool-Aid more than most people, but until we know he's healthy this remains a need.

FB: If we run a Stanford-like west coast offense, we'll need a power fullback. We can't rely on Allen because a lot of the power formations run at Stanford used two TEs AND a FB. We absolutely need someone to catch those bananas.

QB2: We need to ensure we have a quality back up for Andrew Luck. It could be that we resign Stanton or that we promote Harnish. Either way, we need someone we know can win. We cannot count on Luck having a Peyton-like streak of consecutive games started.

So, who do we get to fill these needs?

Free Agency:

Guard: Louis Velasquez (Chargers) or Andy Levitre (Bills). We won't be able to sign both, but I want to see us land at least one. In addition, I'd like to see us add Donald Thomas (Pats). He's a back up in NE, but when he got in he played pretty dang well. He should be cheap.

Center: Fernando Velasco (Titans). He has been solid for the Titans, and he can play guard. Also, we could consider Rob Turner (Rams). He's played every position on the line.

OT: Will Beatty (Giants) or Phil Loadholt (Vikings). I know many people will argue for Jake Long, Sebastian Vollmer, Andre Smith, or Ryan Clady here. The problem is that Jake Long has been regressing, Sebastian Vollmer will be really expensive/probably will be resigned, Andre Smith will definitely be resigned, and Ryan Clady isn't a good run blocker. We need an RT who can be a power run blocker in Hamilton's new offense.

Rush OLB: Paul Kruger (Ravens). Ray Lewis will be gone, as will Ed Reed (almost certainly). This will free up a lot of their cap room, but reports are suggesting that Flacco will be asking for Peyton Manning-type money. Plus, with Ray Lewis retiring that creates a bigger need for the Ravens at ILB, meaning Dannell Ellerbe will probably get the nod over Paul Kruger. I doubt the Ravens will be able to resign both. If they go with Kruger over Ellerbe, we should definitely pursue Ellerbe. We could also consider Manny Lawson (Bengals) if he isn't resigned.

Safety: Dashon Goldson (49ers). Obviously we'd all prefer Jarius Byrd, but I doubt the Bills let him go. We could also target William Moore (Falcons).

DE: Randy Starks (Dolphins). He's an interior DT, but could serve as a reliable 3-4 DE. We could also consider Roy Miller (Bucs). He's a 4-3 DT, but is rock solid against the run.

CB2: Sean Smith (Dolphins). A lot of people are saying DRC, which would be cool but he'll probably demand too much money. In addition, he's kind of a head-case who doesn't really seem to put his heart into the game. If somehow Keenan Lewis (Steelers) isn't resigned, he should be our target.

Draft:

1: Kenny Vaccaro (S) or Matt Elam (S) if we don't sign Dashon Goldson or Jarius Byrd. If we do, then Jonathon Cooper (G). If we lock down the guard position in FA, then Sam Montgomery (DE/OLB). If none of these are available, trade back.

3: ~~Cordarrelle Patterson (WR)~~ or Marcus Davis (WR). ~~Or, maybe, Margus Hunt (DE).~~ As it turns out, I wasn't up to date on where these guys were projected to be taken. Thanks to member JPZ for the update. I'll be happy with Marcus Davis if he's still around, or Marquess Wilson (WR). Both are tall and fast. I loves me some tall and fast.

4: Trevardo Williams (OLB) or Sanders Commings (CB)

6: Any of the FBs available.

So I know this is, perhaps, the least original idea in all of the internet, but it should be fun! So let's dive right in.

Resignings, in order of importance:

Pat McAfee, P: He's great and getting better. We don't need to create another hole on the team by not resigning him.

Moise Fokou, ILB: He performed admirably, and we could use depth at the position.

Winston Justice, OT: When he was healthy, he was solid. He's also a vocal leader of the team.

Needs:

Rush OLB: We need someone to replace Freeney. He was a huge disappointment this year, and our pass rush was one of the big reasons we could not defend the pass.

CB2: We need someone to line up opposite Vontae Davis. Also a reason we couldn't defend the pass.

SS: Tommy Z seems like a pretty fun guy, but he really kind of sucks. If I had a dollar for every missed tackle he had, I suspect I could pay for a safety upgrade myself.

DEx2: As mentioned constantly, Cory Redding was awesome but injury prone. We need two more solid DEs, one capable of being a 16 game starter.

So, who do we get to fill these needs?

Free Agency:

Center: Fernando Velasco (Titans). He has been solid for the Titans, and he can play guard. Also, we could consider Rob Turner (Rams). He's played every position on the line.

Safety: Dashon Goldson (49ers). Obviously we'd all prefer Jarius Byrd, but I doubt the Bills let him go. We could also target William Moore (Falcons).

DE: Randy Starks (Dolphins). He's an interior DT, but could serve as a reliable 3-4 DE. We could also consider Roy Miller (Bucs). He's a 4-3 DT, but is rock solid against the run.

Draft:

4: Trevardo Williams (OLB) or Sanders Commings (CB)

6: Any of the FBs available.

Positives from today's disappointing game

jbacon55 — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 04:16:51 -0000

I'm as upset as anyone else by the outcome of today's game, but I think we should focus on positive things wherever possible.

I hate the outcome of the game as much as anyone (especially because I loathe the Jaguars), but there is no denying that we saw some exciting things today. So, let's get started.

1) Andrew Luck go to show off his athleticism. Coming into the draft, people were really high on RGIII because he is a dual threat that would cause problems for defenses to game plan against. One of the things that went largely unnoticed was that Andrew Luck is also incredibly fast--in fact, as the announcers pointed out today, he ran the same 40 time as Cam Newton. (Un?)fortunately, Luck is too cerebral and pass oriented to do much scrambling. Hopefully defensive coordinators took note. If Luck can keep up these rushing numbers, we might begin to see the passing game open up more as defenses leave someone home to protect against a Luck scramble.

2) Andrew Luck is really, really good at the two-minute offense. We've read about this in other stories on Stampede Blue so I won't rehash it here.

3) Donald Brown has made some great strides. He has been picking up blitzes well, and we didn't see the types of miscues from him that we've seen in previous games (i.e. dropping passes).

I'm as upset as anyone else by the outcome of today's game, but I think we should focus on positive things wherever possible.

I hate the outcome of the game as much as anyone (especially because I loathe the Jaguars), but there is no denying that we saw some exciting things today. So, let's get started.

2) Andrew Luck is really, really good at the two-minute offense. We've read about this in other stories on Stampede Blue so I won't rehash it here.

3) Donald Brown has made some great strides. He has been picking up blitzes well, and we didn't see the types of miscues from him that we've seen in previous games (i.e. dropping passes).

4) The run defense is pretty stout compared to previous seasons. Yes, MJD's stat line looks like he ran all over us, but a lot of that came from a single run. In addition, we were able to stuff a lot of Jacksonville's runs. Yes, MJD ran for more than 6 YPC. If, however, you take out that one 59 yard TD run, MJD's yards per carry drops to just over 4. Not too shabby for a much-maligned run defense versus one of the best backs in the league. In previous seasons, almost every run would go for 4+ yards, with a great many going more than 5 or 6. I'm not saying that our run defense is particularly good, but it's much, much better than we've previously seen.

5) The Colts have finally learned how to tackle. This is much more of a "gut" judgement than one based in facts/numbers/evidence because I don't have access to NFL Replay. What I can say, though, is that, with the exception of Shorts--the guy who caught the game winning TD--only one other receiver had more than 10 yards per catch. Yes, Blaine Gabbert is awful, but this means that we were also stuffing short dump offs pretty well. There was also at least one play where Vontae Davis stuffed a bubble screen at the line of scrimmage by latching on to the receiver's ankle. This is the second game in a row with a play from him like this.

6) Our pass rush looked significantly better today than it had in previous games. Even without Freeney, on many plays (note: not all plays) we got pressure on Gabbert (including at least two major pressures from Jerry Hughes). There were certainly a large number of plays where Gabbert could have knitted a sweater in the pocket and still had time to throw, but overall it still seemed like a huge improvement.

7) Perhaps most importantly, we found a new potential starter at line backer: Andrew Luck. Watching the replay of him chasing down his interception, it looked like he was actually trying to push other teammates out of the way. He has a nose for the ball, and we should clearly start him at OLB opposite Mathis.

What positives did you guys see from the game?

We must sign Dan Koppen, All-Pro Center formerly of the Patriots

jbacon55 — Sat, 01 Sep 2012 06:46:02 -0000

The Colts should sign Dan Koppen, period. Yes, he's almost 33, and yes, he's coming off an injury, but the Colts simply cannot risk Luck going down with an injury. I know we're rebuilding, but if our offensive line is stellar RIGHT NOW, we risk losing Luck to injury which would derail the whole process. This would upgrade the center of our line, AND the right side, as Satele could shift over to RG while Koppen is under contract.