The Nationals sent Nyjer Morgan to the Brewers for Cutter Dykstra, a minor league IF in the Brewers system, and cash. 

link to story

Apparently Morgan was not going to be in the picture in CF for the Nats, who are going to platoon Rick Ankiel and former Cub Jerry Hairston Jr.  Morgan, in my opinion, is the type of guy the Cubs need at the top of the lineup.  He did have a down year last year, but he typically hits for high average and OBP.  Yes, I realize that Marlon Byrd is in center for the Cubs, and they have a logjam in the OF, but perhaps they could've gone with Morgan and either released Reed Johnson or perhaps unloaded one of their other OFs (most likely Byrd).  Discuss......

We've discussed several of the moves, but they have been discussed somewhat in isolation of one another.  So, I decided to take a look at what we gained and what we lost, and try to group the "like" parts to make some sort of comprehensive assessment.  Here goes:

Gorzelanny for Garza-Gorzelanny has been a -1.0, 0.7 and 2.3 WAR pitcher over the past 3 years.  Garza has been a 2.9, 3.2 and 1.9.  Garza is an upgrade (~2WAR/yr) over Gorzelanny, but also will cost a few million per year more than Gorz.

Guyer for Burgess-This swap essentially allows the Cubs to get younger.  Burgess is ~3 years younger than Guyer, and is just slightly behind him with regard to his progression through the minors.  Burgess’ stats at AA, although limited, have shown to be better than Guyer’s early AA stats.  Guyer has progressed-we’ll have to wait and see what Burgess does.  I’d submit this is a slight upgrade given the essentially 2 years of age (when you adjust for progression) saved-they appear to be very similar players.

Fuld for Perez-Fuld is 29, and is a career .252/.368/.344 hitter.  Perez is 27, and is a career .231/.301/.351 hitter.  Pretty much a wash. 

Chirinos for Ramirez-Yes, I know that we claimed Ramirez off of waivers.  Regardless of how the players were obtained, we essentially swapped out back up catchers.  Note however, that Chirino’s minor league stats are WORSE than what Ramirez’ were, and Ramirez is 4 months younger with MLB experience.  Ramirez is a career .298/.396/.476/.872 hitter; Chirinos is a career .260/.350/.422/.772 hitter.  Many of you were upset about Chirinos being included in the trade-I’d say he’s not really a loss considering we have Castillo and now Ramirez, who is somewhat better.

Lee for Hicks-Clearly, Lee is a more desirable player than Hicks.  But, let’s not over-rate Lee, as he hasn’t progressed past A ball yet, and a lot can happen as he progresses through the minors.  Hicks is not impressive on the surface, but let’s also keep in mind that he’s only logged 142 innings pitched in the minors. 

Archer for Morris-Archer appears more desirable than Morris and probably is/will be, but there are some similarities here.  Morris was a starter in college, and was 2nd in the Golden Spikes voting to another Washington National-Steven Strasburg.  The Nats moved Morris into the bullpen, where he wasn’t phenomenal.  He shows plus command of two pitches, but needs to develop his change up to ever be a starter (sound familiar)?   I’d still say Archer is a better prospect than Morris, but they both have work to do and sound similar in nature. 

That said, essentially, I’d boil down the Cubs off-season acquisitions and losses this way:

We slightly upgraded our starting pitching in Garza for Gorz.  We got 2 years younger with one of our minor league OFs. We traded an older, minor league catcher for essentially the same player, but with MLB experience.  We obtained a possible future set up man or back end starter, and a potential future lefty specialist. 

So, would you trade Archer, Lee and a few million dollars for (1) an upgrade to our starting pitching, (2) a 2 years younger AA OF, (3) a slightly younger, more experienced backup catcher, (4) a future set up man/back end starter, and (5) a potential future lefty specialist? 

This is essentially the “net” of our off-season.  I imagine some will say “no-this doesn’t help us get to the play-offs now/soon”.  Others will say “yes-this makes us better, now and potentially in the future.”  Discuss.

Many of you have seen the ongoing debate as to whether or not Marlon Byrd is a viable CF, whether or not Hendry overpaid for Byrd, and whether or not Fuld should be playing CF instead of Byrd.  I realize it has been somewhat annoying for some of you-so my apologies for continuing it in threads.  Per several recommendations, we can debate it in this post.  If you don't want to see/hear any more-you don't have to participate or enter this post/thread!

Here are the CAREER stats for the starting CFs in MLB.  Note that I have left out a few of them because they have less than a full season under their belt, and truthfully, if I included them, they would strengthen my stance b/c their career numbers (albeit a small sample size) are worse than Byrd's.  Marlon Byrd's career stats are as follows:

.278/.339/.422/.762

There are, by my count, 13 starting CFers with better career numbers than Byrd.  They are as follows:

Cameron:  .250/.340/.448/.788;  Granderson:  .273/.345/.485/.830;  Wells:  .281/.330/.473/.803;   And Jones:  .257/.338/.488/.827;  Rios:  .281/.330/.445/.775;  Sizemore:  .275/.366/.484/.850;  Span:  .300/.386/.414/.800;  Hunter:  .274/.330/.472/.802;  McLouth:  .259/.342/.451/.792;  Ross:  .265/.323/.483/.806;  McCutchen  .285/.362/.465/.827;  Kemp  .299/.346/.483/.829;  Rowand .280/.379/.448/.787

There are, by my count, 9 starting CFers with worse career numbers than Byrd.  They are as follows:

Adam Jones  .267/.314/.418/.732; R. Davis .278/.334/.386/.720;  Gutierrez  .271/.323/.416/.740; G. Matthews  .258/.333/.407/.740;  Morgan .298/.357/.390/.747;  Bourn  .263/.327/.350/.677; Rasmus .253/.318/.418/.736;  C. Young  .237/.308/.442/.750;  Fowler .257/.350/.389/.739

Finally, there are 4 starting CFers in the same ballpark as Byrd:

Upton  .266/.352/.409/.761; Ankiel  .253/.312/.454/.765; Victorino  .282/.345/.425/.770;  Hairston .252/.305/.454/.759

This, to me, would say Byrd is a viable starting CFer.  Pretty much around league average.  That said, the other question that was raised was whether or not he is WORTH the $5M that he is paid per year.  Note that a majority of the starting CFers with better numbers than Byrd are paid more based on 2010 salaries, let alone the average of their deals:  Cameron $7.75M, Granderson $5.5M, Wells, $15.7M, Hunter $18.5M, Rios $10.2M, Sizemore $5.8M, and Rowand $13.6m.  If you were to throw in the salaries of all 13, I'm pretty confident it would average out to well over the $5M that Byrd is getting paid, which makes his contract appear to be in line with his production.

Looking further at the CF free agent class this past offseason, there were other options out there.  The three options better than Byrd (from a production standpoint) were Johnny Damon (.288/.355/.438/.793 and $8M), Mike Cameron (.250/.340/.448/.788 and $7.75M), and Andrew Jones (.257/.338/.488/.827 and $500k).  Jones was a big question mark.  Not sure Damon or Cameron is worth the extra money for the extra production.  Rick Ankiel (.253/.312/.454/.765 and $2.75M 1 yr) and Reed Johnson (.283/.344/.412/.756 and $800k 1 yr) were available and produce about the same as Byrd, but both are injury risks and Johnson would have to platoon.  Other options with lesser production than Byrd include Podsednik (.278/.342/.382/.723 and $1.65M) or Coco Crisp (.277/.331/.407/.738 and $5M).  None of these choices stand out to me as better than Byrd.

Finally, some have claimed that Fuld should be given the starting CF job because he can "get on base, play defense and run the bases."  I don't think that 103 plate appearances guarantees that he will produce as well, let alone better than, Byrd.  And for the record, his UZR in CF (albeit small sample size) is worse than Byrds.  Based on all of this information, I think Byrd is a viable CFer and he is NOT overpaid for what he produces.  He may be leaving a hitters park in Arlington, but Wrigley is actually an even better hitter's park than Arlington, so Byrd should be able to continue to produce at or better than his career averages.

This by Melissa Isaacson at ESPN Chicago.  I know many of you will say "I've heard this before..........".  A couple of interesting points in the story.  He's 15 lbs lighter.  He has a greater sense of accountability.  This was the first offseason he stayed in Chicago and subsequently realized that his 3 girls are growing up, and he needs to represent himself better during games especially when they are watching.  He also is apparently moving away from the cutter and working more on his slider.

Apparently, Rothschild urged Z to lose weight in order to improve his delivery, potentially avoid minor injuries that put him on the DL, and improve his pitching stamina during games.  Only time will tell, but this story, at worst, means nothing, and at best, means we may see an improved Big Z this year, which the team sorely needs.

linky

Many of us were hopeful for Smardzija's future, however, he showed last year that he's still got work to do.  All the early talk this year is focused on guys like Stevens, Caridad and Cashner, but what about Spellcheck?  Not sure how many of you caught this article on cubs.com, but apparently, Spellcheck worked very hard over the course of the offseason, and both Lou and Rothschild are pleased with the way he is coming along.  I don't know that he has enough pitches to be a viable starter, but it's be nice if he could step into the role vacated by the injured Guzman.  Take a look at the story if you missed it, and discuss what you think.........

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Not good.......but I guess something like this was expected based on the recent headlines after his MRI results.  The injury is related to what shut him down last year, but does not necessarily require surgery.  I hate to say it, but with all the injuries racking up, his future doesn't look good.  Do any of us believe that Angel Guzman has a future with the Cubs moving forward?  Here is the link........

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Brewers tickets go on sale at 9 am CST, Saturday February 27th on the Brewers website.  They have 2 weekend series with the Cubs in April and September (Fri/Sat/Sun), as well as another mid-week series in June (Tues/Wed/Thurs).  I lived in Milwaukee for almost 5 years, and it was fun to go to those games and see the Stadium at least half filled with Cubs fans.  When we were there-it was pretty easy to get in and get tickets to the Cubs games, but not sure how it is now because I haven't done it in awhile since we've moved to Indianapolis.  Good luck to everybody-figured this would give those of you that missed out another option.

Brewers Single Game Ticket Information

ESPN is reporting that if the Red Sox land Bay or Holliday, the Cubs would make an immediate play for Ellsbury-possibly trying to get involved in a 3 way trade with San Diego involving Adrian Gonzalez going to Boston for prospects.  Not sure how all the pieces would fit together from a trade perspective, but Ellsbury is expendable with Cameron able to play CF.  I would welcome Ellsbury to the North Side to play CF in 2010!

According to the New York Post, the Yankees have inquired about Big Z.  I know this was hypothetically discussed earlier in terms of players the Cubs could possibly trade to get some salary relief and rebuild.  This story, however, confirms there is interest:

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/auld_lang_sign_lnyUGytHfw1E9U0jIMUpMN

According to ESPN-the Cubs' asking price is too high, making the deal unlikely, but ESPN doesn't go into asking price specifics.  I, personally, would advocate for this trade if it brought Gardner/Cabrera and some solid pitching prospects.  I think we've gotten the best out of Big Z, and it would be wise to get out from under his large contract if we get a solid return.

Are the terms of the proposed (yet not final?) Lowell deal a precedent for a Bradley deal? 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4730311

Reports say that the gap between the Rays and Cubs in exchanging Burrell for Bradley is Bradley's '11 salary, which amounts to $12M.  In the Lowell deal, the Red Sox have agreed, in principle, to pay $9M of the $12M owed to Lowell.  Max Ramirez' salary was $400k in 2009, which is really negligible in this deal, and therefore doesn't really augment the $9M the Red Sox are paying as a part of Lowell's salary.  Discuss......

Both guys were released by their respective teams.  I know Gobble has been discussed in a previous fanpost, but, hey, he's available again and many of you have discussed him as a lefty specialist since we only have Cotts right now.  Lots of discussion on the backup 3B, and Ensberg would fit the position better than Fonty but not sure his offense would be good enough.  Discuss a-"meh"-ngst yourselves.  I'm sure this post will get plenty of "mehs".

In our quest to find another 2B who can lead off, set the table and steal bases.....

The Rocky Mountain News is reporting Marcus Giles was informed he won't make the club despite his solid spring. Giles wasn't on the list of players being sent to the minors (a list which included Victor Zambrano), but the speculation is that he will be released and given a chance to hook on with another team. The Dodgers would seem like an obvious fit, but it's likely several teams will be in the running.

Giles hit .321/.457/.536 over 13 games, with four doubles and nine runs scored. He was also 3 for 3 in steal attempts. However, the likely starter at second Jayson Nix was equal to the task, hitting .286/.459/.643 with three HRs.

Anybody interested in this?  I'm not saying Giles would be Roberts, however, he could be close to as good, without the Cubs giving up 4 players.  Discuss.....

Let me preface this by saying I'm really happy about the first two games of the Crosstown Classic.

As I see it-Lou is the biggest issue this team has.  He consistently overmanages this team in 2 common scenarios, and he consistently undermanages in 1.  

With regard to overmanagement-Lou consistently overmanages the bullpen-we've all seen this time and time again.  The one recent scenario that come to mind was Marquis' start a couple of series ago (perhaps the Mets)?????  5th inning-Cubs are up 5-0, Marquis puts the 1st two batters on, and Lou goes immediately to the bullpen!!!!  Given how our bullpen has performed, and the fact that it was only the 5th-I would have liked to see him give Marquis a few more batters to see if he could get out of the jam.  We lost that game.

Secondarily, Lou continues to "tinker" with the lineup.  I know his philosophy-"everyone should be prepared to come to the park and play/contribute."  While I understand his thinking-I believe guys need to get comfortable with their roles-not only where they play and how often they play, but where they bat in the line up.

Finally, with regard to undermanagement-I don't believe that Lou is in the mindset of manufacturing runs.  We have 2 wins and double-digit losses in games decided by 2 runs or less.  Granted, there are many intangibles that play into whether or not you're going to manufacture runs, however, I think Lou could do it more often given our abysmal record in close games.  One example I remember was a home game where the wind was blowing in, our bats were relatively cold, and the opposing pitcher looked pretty decent.  We're down 2-0 in roughly the sixth, and Barrett leads off the inning with a double.  The bottom of our lineup is coming up, we're only down two runs, and the next 3 batters strand Barrett at 2nd.  WHY NOT LAY DOWN A BUNT with 0 out to get him to third and potentially cut the lead to 2-1?  I really have a beef with Lou on this one.

Anyways-thanks for enduring the long intro-I'm curious to hear comments from others.

Jim Hendry was a guest this morning on Mike and Mike on ESPNradio.  Was a bit disappointed that they didn't talk about additional moves the Cubs plan to make-they were mostly focused on Soriano, free agent pitchers and the posting system for Japanese players.  

You can find Hendry's segment at:

http://espnradio.espn.go.com/espnradio/show?showId=mikeandmike

You must be an insider-it is in the lower right hand portion of the page under audio/video.

Hendry defended the Soriano signing.  He did say he would've rather gone with fewer years, but the amount of years is what he had to do to get it done.  He also defended Soriano's age-pointing out that guys like Alou and Sheffield are still performing well and getting big contracts for their services-imagine what salaries will be in 6-7 years!

He also stated that their young pitching hasn't panned out yet and with injuries to Wood and Prior, they had to dip into the free agent market for SP, which is obviously something no GM or owner wants to do.  He feels Lilly can be a 15+ game winner, as he has won 15 games in the AL East (tough division) in a park that isn't very friendly either.

He also pointed out that Marquis has won more games the last 3 years than Zito or Schmidt.  Marquis has 42 wins over the last 3 years, while Schmidt and Zito each have 41.

Hope everyone enjoys the synopsis and has some thoughts to contribute.