1. Carlos Perez, lhp, Danville Braves
2. Enny Romero, lhp, Princeton Rays
3. Oswaldo Arcia, of, Elizabethton Twins
4. Oscar Taveras, of, Johnson City Cardinals
5. Delino Deshields, of, Greeneville Astros
6. Ramon Morla, 3b, Pulaski Mariners
7. Mike Foltynewicz, rhp, Greeneville Astros
8. Adrian Salcedo, rhp, Elizabethton Twins
9. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3b, Kingsport Mets
10. Manuel Soliman, rhp, Elizabethton Twins
11. Vincent Velasquez, rhp, Greeneville Astros
12. Andrelton Simmons, ss, Danville Braves
13. Braulio Lara, lhp, Princeton Rays
14. Cody Stanley, c, Johnson City Cardinals
15. Todd Glaesmann, of, Princeton Rays
16. Pat Dean, lhp, Elizabethton Twins
17. Matt Heidenreich, rhp, Bristol White Sox
18. Richard Vargas, rhp, Pulaski Mariners
19. Jacob Petricka, rhp, Bristol White Sox
20. Hector Guevara, 2b, Princeton Rays

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610713.html

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8947764/Source:-Furcal-to-sign-with-Braves

Very interesting... does this open up Peavy to the Braves talk again? Clearly, both Furcal and Escobar are very capable SS defensively and moving one to 2B would probably be a waste of resources considering they have an excellent offensive 2B in Johnson already. I guess another option could be to move Johnson to LF and Escobar to 2B, but that's probably not leveraging Johnson's offense as well as they could.

What does everyone think?

 

I was looking at all of the prospect guru lists for a possible NL-only sleeper, and this guy keeps coming up. He hit like crazy at Florida State as a junior after struggling his first 2 years, then hit very well in the NWL (308/404/544, 5 HR, 28 SB in 182 AB), ranking as the #4 prospect there according to BA. He's apparently very athletic and has a decent eye at the plate, although 41 K's in 182 AB is a bit disconcerting.

Is this guy for real with the bat? Is his defense so bad that he won't stay at 2B? I'm really just wondering more about why I haven't heard more about him.

I was reading through John's book last night and I came across him... it's funny how you forget about someone so quickly! :)

I went and looked at what he's done this season and I (mostly) like what I see, although it does come with the pretext of being in the CAL. His numbers (275/347/422) don't look great in comparison to last year (260/313/416) except for his higher OBP. However, he looks like he's improved his plate discipline relatively significantly. His AB/BB rate has gone from 14.56 to 10.55. His AB/K rate has gone from 4.61 to 5.55. Those are both relatively significant improvements. Since the end of April, his BB/K/AB ratio has been 15/20/121, which represents an even further improvement.

However, his power has gone a little backwards this year, hitting less 2B and HR than last year. This is not a good sign from a player in the CAL.

I'm very interested to see if he can take his new-found plate discipline and turn it into more production, especially in the power department. Scouts have always been impressed with his physical tools, so it would be surprising to me to not see him develop more power as he begins to swing at better pitches.

By no means do I think he will be a star, but I'm beginning to believe that he is showing signs that he can be a productive major league hitter if this improvement does not stall. Remember, he is only 21. John gave him a straight C in the book and I would think that will be higher by season's end.

Any thoughts? It would be great to hear from people who have seen him play this year.

John rated him very highly before the season started and I was quite skeptical of that, but considering what he is doing this year, I have no doubt he will be a star in this game. His numbers are very surprising to me. A quick comparison of David Wright and Zimmerman at age 21:

DW: 263 AB, 293/332/525, 17 2B, 14 HR, 14/40 BB/K 6/6 SB

RZ: 262 AB, 286/343/485, 20 2B, 10 HR, 23/60 BB/K, 5/9 SB

A quick look shows that they are very similar at the same stage in their ML careers, with Wright hitting for more HR power and showing better contact skills, but drawing less walks. His K rate is a little high, but not out of bounds, and should improve with more experience.

I'm not saying that Zimmerman will develop into the hitter that Wright has become, but it looks to me that his power has been quite underrated. He also plays a superior 3b, which is backed up both the stats and scouts opinions. He looks like a franchise player to me, and I certainly did not believe that before the season.

The NL East is loaded with young 3b, that's for sure, with Cabrera included. It's pretty hard to believe, but if Atlanta had held on to Andy Marte, he would only be considered the fourth best young 3b in the NL East. Wow...

Speaking of Marte, he's starting to really pound the ball in AAA, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him up soon with the way Cleveland has struggled.

What does everyone think?

I don't know how many diaries have been dedicated to the "future aces", but I wanted to give my impressions from watching them, last night in particular.

Hamels: Tremendous control, far better than Liriano or Felix. Hit his spots at will. The only reason he walked anyone in the game is because he lost a little after running the bases in the 5th. Struck out the first 2 guys, then none after, but Arizona hit maybe 2 hard balls all game off of him. I don't understand, personally, why people can't put him in the same class as Felix, Verlander, or Liriano...

Felix: I don't understand why he doesn't throw his fastball more, and for more strikes. He's got such great movement on it... one example was a 2-0 2-seamer to Morneau that darted away and he got a routine grounder to SS out of it. Good for him that he was facing the Twins because he could have been hurt a lot more by his lack of control, which put him in hitters counts all night long... got a break when Hunter bailed him out by swinging at a tough slider on a 3-1 pitch to get out of a jam. He needs to develop more confidence to throw strikes before he takes a step further. I see a kid with all of the stuff and a lack of confidence at this point.

Liriano: Didn't have his best stuff, as evidenced by only 3 K's... also seemed to get agitated by things going wrong. I'm not sure if it's immaturity or a temper, but he really seemed bothered that Seattle was hitting him a little last night, and Gardenhire and company had to go to the mound a couple of times to calm him down. He needs to gain some poise for sure. He throws the hardest of the 3, but I wouldn't say he has better stuff than Felix. Definitely has the look of an ace, but has got to gain control of his emotions when things aren't going his way.

One last thing... if I had to pick one young position player to build my team around, it's Joe Mauer. The guy is phenomenal. He's great defensively, hits line drives all over the place, draws walks, doesn't strike out, runs well... pretty much everything except hit for a lot of power, and he will as he gets older. You can argue that picking a catcher is risky to build a team around, but I'll take my chances with that guy.

Admittedly, I am a big Reyes supporter, so I may be seeing something more than there is, but hidden in his hideous looking 242/296/363 line is 7 BB in 91 AB, a major improvement so far. I've watched him a lot this year and he seems to be getting underneath the ball a lot and not using his speed to leg out hits like he did in the 2nd half last year, but if he can combine this new batting eye with his groundball approach from last year, we could be looking at a legitimate leadoff hitter after all. He looks like a guy who could be putting it all together in very short order.

BTW, 18 runs in 21 games with a .296 OBP is pretty remarkable considering he's only got 1 HR...

Interesting news... Santiago Casilla. He's also aged 2 years. To me, that doesn't matter that much for pitching prospects (especially relievers), but it probably knocks him down a peg on the prospect list.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/01/27/SPG55GTKVG1.DTL

I wonder if they are going to officially change the name or if they are just going to stick with Jairo. It is a pretty cool name...

Is Johnny Damon overpaid? That is the question.

Well, from an average player perspective, yes he is. He is not one of the best players in baseball. But, from a baseball economics perspective, you can make an argument that he is not.

Let's use round numbers and say that the Yankee payroll is $200 million (it's probably more). If that is the case, Damon's salary is 6.5% of the payroll, hardly egregious. For perspective, that is the same as the following (using estimates of payroll):

$125 million payroll (e.g., Boston): 8.125 million
$100 million (e.g., LA Dodgers): 6.5
$60 million (e.g., Oakland): 3.9

So, basically if you are the Red Sox GM and you had 8.125 million to spend on him, would you do it? Yes. As a matter of fact, they actually offered a higher percentage of their team salary than the Yankees did! It's just the advantage the Yankees have in revenue. For reference, Esteban Loaiza's contract with Oakland will cost them more than 10% of their total payroll. Could that end up costing them Barry Zito?

In another thread, Damon was compared to Mark Kotsay, who is not as good of a player. There's not a HUGE difference, but all things being equal, most would select Damon to be on their team. In 2005, Kotsay made $6.5 million (from USA Today) and Oakland had a $55.4 million dollar payroll. So, he made 11.7% of Oakland's payroll, nearly twice as much as Damon's percentage. Who's more valuable to his team payroll-wise? I understand that Kotsay would have more trade value based on total salary, but if you intend to keep Damon, who cares about that? Damon's salary does not preclude the Yankees from making any further moves to strengthen their team. Kotsay's might.

Want examples of overpaid?

Jermaine Dye (Oakland, 2004): 11.67/59.4 = 19.6% (265/329/464). Bad contract.
Mike Sweeney (KC, 2005): 11/36.9 = 29.8% (300/347/517). Best player on the team, but is this the way to balance a small payroll?
Preston Wilson (Col, 2005): 12.5/48.1 = 26% (258/322/491 @Col). Numbers a little off because he was traded, but you get the idea.

I could go on, but I think it's simplistic to say that Damon is the most overpaid or even one of the most. It should all be taken in context. Mike Lowell is taking more of Boston's payroll than Damon is from the Yankees. There are different rules for the Yankees and everyone else. They have more money and they are willing to (over)spend it to fill their own needs.

Is that really fair? No, I don't think it is fair. If they could implement a salary cap in baseball, I would be all for it. But, it is reality that the Yankees have at least 3 times as much money to spend as the A's do. Any time a Yankee salary is examined, I find it to be comical because they don't care about spending it. The small and medium market teams need to worry. To some extent, even Boston and the Mets need to, although in my opinion, that is completely overblown.

In the end, I don't believe he is overpaid in the context of being a Yankee.

I have a question.. if there are 30 teams, shouldn't there be 30 #1 pitchers? Or, is that too simplistic?

I notice from a lot of different prospect analyses that there are very few potential #1's out there, probably only 4: Cain, Verlander, Billingsley, and Liriano. Even highly thought of pitchers like Lester, Olsen, etc. do not project as "#1 starters". Where do they all come from?

I will now try to list my top 30 starters for 2006 (in no particular order), with no prospects and excluding Clemens, to see if I think they are all #1's...

Johan Santana
Roy Oswalt
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
Dontrelle Willis
Mark Prior
Carlos Zambrano
Chris Carpenter
Ben Sheets
Jake Peavy
Jason Schmidt
Randy Johnson
Josh Beckett
Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Mark Buerhle
Felix Hernandez
Bartolo Colon
Rich Harden
Andy Pettitte
Tim Hudson
Barry Zito
John Patterson
John Lackey
Jeremy Bonderman
Brandon Webb
Kevin Millwood
Curt Schilling
C.C. Sabathia
Dan Haren

In retrospect, I'd say there are about 20-22 sure-fire #1 pitchers (depending on how you feel about guys like Burnett, Zito, Hudson, and Pettitte) with Patterson, Lackey, Bonderman, Scott Kazmir, and Oliver Perez representing some potential #1 guys. I wouldn't consider Webb, Millwood, Schilling, Sabathia, and Haren to be shutdown #1-type guys, either, but they seem to be in the mix of the top 30, so maybe they should be considered #1 starters.

Long post... whew!

The continuing saga of a member (who shall remain nameless) to try to put Dustin Pedroia atop the list of prospects in the entire league has now reached BJ Upton, who is technically not a prospect, but spent the entire year at AAA last year. For our intents and purposes, we will label him as a prospect.

The poll is, as usual, who will have a better career, BJ Upton or Dustin Pedroia. Now, most people will think this is silly, but I want to see how many people actually think Pedroia will have a better career. For reference, John Sickels lists Pedroia outside of the top 40 hitters, while Upton, if still eligible, I'm sure would reside in the top 10, if not the top 5.

Thanks.

Poll

Better career: BJ Upton or Dustin Pedroia?

87%

BJ Upton

73 votes

12%

Dustin Pedroia

10 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

This one should be very interesting considering it's Boston vs. Oakland, clearly the two most represented factions on this site.

For me, I'd rather have Marte, but this is another close one. Again, it's defensive value and more power that put him ahead in my book. However, the jury is definitely out on Marte, so this one should be very close.

Poll

Better career: Daric Barton or Andy Marte?

51%

Daric Barton

91 votes

48%

Andy Marte

86 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

Since the Guzman/Barton poll is pretty much finished (and seemingly too lopsided), I thought I'd nominate this as the next poll. Another OBP/tools test at work here. My guess is this one will be closer (or maybe flipped). At least, I hope so. I saw a lot of folks calling Wood overrated in a different thread, so I want to see how much.

As usual, comments are always appreciated. Personally, I vote for Wood.

Poll

Better career: Daric Barton or Brandon Wood?

39%

Daric Barton

73 votes

60%

Brandon Wood

114 votes

187 votes | Poll has closed

I'd like to have a thread that only non-Oakland A's and non-Boston Red Sox fans can address the following questions. The biased opinions of apologist fans are not appreciated here. Of course, Boston fans can answer Oakland questions and vice-versa...

1. Are the Red Sox OK with their team the way it is today, especially at SS and CF? Are they a favorite to make the playoffs?
2. Are the Red Sox currently at a disadvantage in trade talks?
3. Two-part Joe Blanton question:
   

    a. Will his ERA jump significantly next year?
    b. What is his ceiling?

4. Is Barry Zito a "shutdown" pitcher?
5. Is Oakland currently a better team than Anaheim (or whatever they are called!)?

My answers:

1. They are not as good as they were last year, and they need a lot of things to fall into place for them to win 95 again. And, no, they are behind at least the Yankees, Indians, White Sox, Angels, and A's in the American League.
2. Yes, absolutely. They are dealing from weakness and need, not strength.

3(a). Yes, I would say so. Despite Oakland's good D, his track record suggests that he is very hittable, so his ERA should jump into the 4's.

3(b). I think he can become a decent #3/good #4 in time. Not sure he's put it all together yet, though.

4. No. He's good, but to be a shutdown pitcher, you need to be a bonafide ace, and he's not.
5. Close. I'd probably favor Anaheim slightly, but I could see it going either way.

Thanks for your opinions.

After voting him an A-, I was slightly surprised that the "B+" rating was winning rather easily. You guys are tough graders.

His lines from 2004/2005 (BA/OBP/SLG/HR/SB/BB/K/AB):

2004 (20 - Lo-A): 262/365/505/24/31/66/145/465
2005 (21 - AA): 277/377/545/26/32/70/129/466

From all accounts, he has has tremendous tools, and is nearly a John Sickels 7-skill guy. His ability to hit for BA seems to be his only (minor) weakness. He jumped to AA, improved his contact rate, improved his already excellent walk rate, hit for more power (.268 iso), and was extremely impressive stealing bases and playing defense.

I'd like to see some comments on why he is a B+, and who is an example of an A- that is close to him for reference.

I'm thinking long term here...

Last year's #'s (BA/OBP/SLG/BB/K/HR/AB):

Bobby Crosby (age 25): 276/346/456/35/54/9/333
J.J. Hardy (age 22): 247/327/384/44/48/9/372

Considering the horrendous start that Hardy had, the numbers are remarkably similar. Hardy's post All-Star numbers were 308/363/503/16/23/8/185.

I'm sure Crosby is considered the better of the 2 defensively at this point, but Hardy does have a good reputation defensively. I would predict that if both follow a normal growth curve that Hardy would be the better player, and I am genuinely surprised by that. Any thoughts?

After reading some of the comments regarding the American League this year, I figured that we shouldn't even bother playing the season and just hand the AL crown to the Oakland A's right now. They have the best pitching, best defense, and just about the best offense in baseball. They have absolutely no weaknesses. So, instead of just comparing them to today's top teams (where there is no comparison), I figured that matching them up against the 1927 Yankees was the only fair thing to do for them. I don't want to offend them by comparing them against just mere mortals like today's Yankees and Indians.

Offense, with no DH (Players are listed with BA/OBP/SLG/OPS+):

C: Pat Collins (275/407/418/116) vs. Jason Kendall (275/342/321/77)

Well, I hate to do it, but I think Collins wins here.

1B: Lou Gehrig (373/474/765/221) vs. Nick Swisher (236/322/446/100)

Geez, I thought this would be closer, but after further review, I think Gehrig gets a slight edge. However, he may be tired by the time the playoffs start because he never seems to miss a game, so Swisher's got a shot.

2B: Tony Lazzeri (309/383/482/126) vs. Mark Ellis (316/384/477/125)

Ellis wins in a walk over this future HOF. His defense is God-like.

3B: Joe Dugan (269/321/382/79) vs. Eric Chavez (269/329/466/106)

Chavez!

SS: Mark Koenig (285/320/382/84) vs. Bobby Crosby (276/346/356/109)

Crosby!

LF: Bob Meusel (337/393/510/136) vs. Jay Payton (269/302/451/95)

Payton plays great D, so it's closer than you'd think. Oh right, Meusel did, too.

CF: Earle Combs (356/414/511/142) vs. Mark Kotsay (280/325/421/95)

Kotsay was bothered by a back injury last year, otherwise he would have been right there with Combs. And, he is a better defensive CF than pretty much anyone we have ever seen.

RF: Babe Ruth (356/486/772/226) vs. Milton Bradley (290/350/484/121)

What's to say about Milton Bradley that hasn't already been said? Ruth would probably have some kind of gastrointestinal problem by the playoffs, so he's a major question mark to hit that Oakland pitching.

Starters (W-L/ERA/ERA+):

Waite Hoyt (22-7/2.63/146) vs. Rich Harden (10-5/2.53/177)

Can anyone hit Rich Harden?

Urban Shocker (18-6/2.84/136) vs. Barry Zito (14-13/3.86/116)

If any Yankee could hit that curveball, I'd be shocked. Zito in a walk.

Herb Pennock (19-8/3.00/128) vs. Dan Haren (14-12/3.73/120)

With Haren's rapid growth, forget about this one.

Dutch Ruether (13-6/3.38/114) vs. Joe Blanton (12-12/3.53/127)

Forget about the BABIP number for Blanton. His outrageous stuff will keep the Yanks off balance. And don't forget about that Oakland D keeping that BABIP down.

Closer (W-L-SV/ERA/ERA+):

Wilcy Moore (19-7-13/2.28/168) vs. Huston Street (5-1-23/1.72/261)

Well, why in the world would anyone pitch their closer 213 innings?!? Street easily here.

Summary:

My guess is that Oakland, with their overwhelmingly dominant pitching, would easily take this series. Between Gehrig's fatigue (riding all of those trains sucks!) and Ruth not being able to get around on Harden's heat or touch Zito's curve, I can't see how they'd compete. I'd be shocked if it went 6.

I know it makes good copy, but for the life of me, I can't understand this deal from the Orioles perspective. Why would they do it?

Manny in Baltimore would be a disaster because there's no way he's going to like playing for a (potentially) last place team. Plus, if the Orioles get him and then try to trade him for prospects, they're going to find it harder to move him rather than Tejada for the same type of package. They are not going to win the division or make the playoffs with Manny, so there's no point in just swapping salaries.

The only way I can see it is if the Red Sox throw in Marte or Lester and some cash. Otherwise, it makes no sense. And, I don't think the Sox would do that, so IMO the chances of it happening are slim.

If someone out there has a good reason from the ORIOLES perspective, please let me know. There's got to be something I am missing.

He's always been one of my favorite players, and this is just another example of why:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2227833

I personally think he is a Hall of Famer, but I'm not sure he'll get in. His career line is 303/401/538, outstanding for sure. His teams ALWAYS win. 11 full years, 11 divisions, 1 WS.

But, he will not reach any milestones (500 HR, 3000 hits, etc.) that make it automatic. Also, his defense has been average at best at 3b, and I haven't seen enough of him to refute any poor numbers he might have defensively.

What do people think?

Let me start by saying that I really like this Web site and it offers a LOT of great information. However, it often turns into a Yankee-bashing forum, especially one Derek Jeter. Lately, it seems like almost a majority of threads on this site morph into at least one Derek Jeter bashing. So, while he's certainly not a perfect player, he's a damned good one, and I am here to try to make a fair assessment of his career.

Let's start with defense:

  * I agree that he's not a great defensive shortstop, especially going to his left. He does, however, have good range to his right, has an excellent arm, and is great catching shallow outfield popups. He is generally reliable when he gets to the ball. Overall, I'd call him a bit below average, but not nearly as bad as depicted here.

  * He doesn't deserve any Gold Gloves. That I agree with.

  * Oddly, the most famous plays of his career are DEFENSIVE plays: the flip to get Jeremy Giambi, the amazing relay throw to get Timo Perez at the plate in Game 1 of the 2000 WS, the catch running full speed and diving into the stands, to name a few.

  * I advocated him moving to CF or 3B to accommodate A-Rod, who is the better SS. If it was he who insisted on playing SS instead of Torre or A-Rod requesting to move, then his leadership skills take a hit. However, there is no evidence of that, at least none that I have seen or heard. I think he would have been a terrific CF with his speed, arm, and apparent acumen to track fly balls.

His offense numbers are very good (from baseball-reference.com):

  * In 10 full years,

    * 314/386/461, 7 .300 years, 9 .370 OBP years, 7 .450 SLG years
    * 9 years of 100 runs
    * 3 years of 20 HR, 6 of 20 SB
    * 1936 hits, including 4 200 hit years

  * 1999 (easily his best year): 349/438/552, 134 runs, 219 hits, 24 hr, 102 rbi, 19 sb, 91 bb

  * Postseason (through 2004): 110 games: 306/380/456, 77 runs, 14 hr, 42 rbi, 15/18 sb
                           2005: 21 ab, 333/348/619, 2 hr, 5 rbi, sb

The fact that his postseason numbers mirror his regular season numbers says a lot because of the stiffer competition and highly pressurized atmosphere that is the playoffs. Ask Barry Bonds (245/433/503 vs. 300/442/611, no WS titles).

His similar batters include 5 HOF players (Arky Vaughan, Travis Jackson, Tony Lazzeri, Lou Boudreau, and Jackie Robinson). Interestingly, Ray Durham is his most similar batter, a guy I've always thought is UNDERRATED.

Some comparisons:

  * Alex Rodriguez: Jeter is not A-Rod. No one ever has been, so it's not fair to A-Rod to even make the comparison.

  * Miguel Tejada: He doesn't put up Tejada power numbers, but he's a different offensive player than Tejada. Is Tejada's career 280/338/477 really better than Jeter? On the other hand, Tejada is the better defender. Let's call it even, at worst.

  * Nomar Garciaparra: His numbers are outstanding, even after the last couple of years: 320/367/544. Honestly, those are brilliant. I don't care if part of it was Fenway. His defense always appeared to be shaky to me, especially his erratic arm. His Range Factor was above average, but his reliability was very shaky. Another factor is his durability, which is definitely a factor. At his best, I would say Nomar was the better overall player, but I wouldn't say he's had a better career.

In closing, I would agree that he is probably not worth the $18 million that they pay him, but that is besides the point. He is an average defender at best, but he is an excellent offensive player and excellent postseason performer. He seems to have an instinct (why the hell was he over there on the Giambi flip?!?) that is unmeasurable. He is a terrific baserunner and leader. The overall package is of Hall Of Fame quality.

You can certainly make the argument that he is the 2nd best SS of this generation, and that ain't too shabby.

Take care and have a nice day! :-)

2 questions for a NL 4x4 (no runs) minor league draft:

1. Who is the player with the most offensive upside?
   
2. Who is the "safest" choice?

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, Atl
Andrew McCutchen, of, Pit
Jay Bruce, of, Cin
Ryan Braun, 3b(of?), Mil
Troy Tulowitzki, ss, Col
Hunter Pence, of, Hou
Carlos Gonzales, of, Arz
Matt Kemp, of, LAD
Eddy Martinez-Esteve, of/1b, SF
Marcus Sanders, 2b/ss, SF

Thanks.