I figured I'd put together something for all of us who like to play GM.

First, it comes with a link to ESPN's trade machine, for all you notorious rosterbators:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

Second, another link to:

http://www.draftexpress.com//, for their coverage of all the prospects in the upcoming draft. Do they seriously have Drummond 2nd?

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The old rosterbation thread is old, and tired, and needs to be buried. It's full of crap ideas that were never meant to be taken seriously. And it makes me scroll down too much to look at the posts. Besies, nobody wants to rosterbate in a place where someone already left a mess. Ewwwwwww...

So, let's start a new one...

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The more I see these trade scenarios and rumors, the more I'm coming to a certain conclusion - There's no point in trading for anybody who isn't an instant game-changer. You can't trade for a guy who patches our holes and expect it to work. You have to get a guy who, when he goes to the scorers table, the opposing coach makes substitutions, and the opposing players mutter curses under their breath.

And that thought led me to try to list who the guys are who are actually game-changers, who's available, who's not, and what it would take.

I present my completely arbitrary list of game-changing players:

And that's just the way it is.

In case you didn't see my other post, I created a statistic which I call NOSE. I define the statistic thusly:

NOSE = REB + STL + CHG - TO - (FGA - FGM)

Essentially, then, this stat adds up all the times that a player gains possession of the ball for his team (REB, STL, CHG), and deducts from it all the times he lost possession of the ball for his team (TO, Missed Shot). The difference represents a snapshot of whether a player is adding or subtracting from the number of possessions his team has to work with, and shows the extent to which he makes that happen.

Why call it NOSE? It's short for "Nose for the Ball," which I think sums up this statistic perfectly. Also, it let's me say fun things, like, "Marcin Gortat has the biggest NOSE on the Phoenix Suns:"

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If you aren't into statistics, this post probably isn't for you.

I view basketball as a game of 3 phases - offense, defense, and rebounding. Today, I had some extra time, and decided to try and translate that view of basketball into some clean-looking statistics. I've come up with 2 statistical measures of my own creation. I'm calling them "Points Created" and "NOSE." I'll explain below.

Now, there are two types of basketball stats - those that are driven by productivity (e.g. points per game), and those that are driven by efficiency (e.g. points per possession). Lately, the trend has been towards the latter, so I decided to buck the trend and go for the former. All of these stats are based on production per 36 minutes. I like this measure, as it approximates starters minutes for a good player.

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Here at BSotS we have talented writers who spoon-feed us with information about our team - giving us the down low on their real world observations of our team dynamics and player attitudes. This isn't one of those posts, though.

We also have mathematical geniuses who show us through the fine art of statistics how and why our Suns are falling off a cliff playing the way they are. This, also, isn't one of those posts.

And then we have a bunch of armchair GM's and coaches - a group of lively hacks who love to speculate idly on how the current management is doing it all wrong (morons I tell ya!), and how we could do it so much better.

This is TOTALLY one of those posts!

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Frye has always had a reputation for being a bit "soft" for a center, or power forward (take your pick). And along with that, a reputation for being a poor rebounder/defender. The two go together, right?

And as he comes into this season, shooting a horrible percentage from outside, and in general, really, most of us have been moaning and groaning and calling for our rookie to start.

But I think that Channing spent his offseason working on rebounding and defense, and not so much shooting. A few interesting statistics through 5 games.

Channing Frye 2011-2012

Def Rebounds: 33 (tie 11th)

Total Rebounds: 42 (tie 17th)

Rebounds per Game: 8.6 (tie 14th)

Def Reb%: 33.8% (2nd!)

Defensive Rating: 94.9 (11th)

His Off Reb% has also roughly tripled over last season to 8.9%, though that still isn't considered a great number.

Now if only they would spell his name right on his Fry's card!

A couple days ago, when we lost to one of the worst teams in basketball - the Hornets - by a single point, in an away game...

That was not the moment to panic.

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Bummed out by no-name signings (like Sebastian Telfair)?

Cheer up, at least we're not the Portland Trailblazers!

Today in T-Blazer news:

Brandon Roy announced he was going to retire for medical reasons.

LaMarcus Aldridge underwent a procedure on his heart for a chronic condition. He will miss all of training camp.

That... is a rough week, folks.

There are two paths that lie before the Suns. They must choose one.

Now, I know you're thinking, "contend or rebuild," but that isn't really the choice at all. Like it or not, the answer to that is "rebuild."

The question, then, is do we want to:

A) Build through the draft, or

B) Build through free agency

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So I was looking at the Phoenix Suns depth chart...

PG Steve Nash, Zabian Dowdell

SG Jared Dudley, Mickael Pietrus

SF Grant Hill, Josh Childress

PF M.Morris, Hakim Warrick

C Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Robin Lopez, Garrett Siler


...and feeling a little sick.

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So with an extended offseason fill with croissants and other French pastries under his belt, one can only guess just what size of belt Boris will be sporting come the beginning of training camp, Dec 9.

So where shall we set the under/over for this?

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Hey, question for you experts out there.  What happens to the players who were drafted this last year, since there is no NBA season?

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So we need a frontcourt player, and since I've drastically lowered my estimate of Robin Lopez potential this season, we ought to be looking at the free agents.

Following is a list of free agent big men who are either notable, or else I thought they'd be a good fit here:

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Maybe it's just me that's hacked off, but was this not the worst officiated game you've ever seen?

Channing Frye gets his shoulder dislocated on a reach, and there's no call?

Two phantom fouls on Steve Nash in the 4Q & OT where there was absolutely no contact whatsover.

Free Throw disparity: 47 attempts for Thunder 14 for Suns.

And OKC allowed to handcheck for the entire game?

BIG PROPS to the Suns for almost winning anyway!  Oh, and it was nice that Vince Carter showed up tonight, even if he choked on the final FT's.

[/rant]

So it seems like the lineup is mostly set and the team is starting to come together.  Still, there's that logjam of wings.  And I'm bored here at work.  So rather than actually, y'know, work, I thought I'd come up with a bunch of little trade ideas to alleviate that logjam.

And, hopefully, get back something good for this team.

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Denver pushed a reset button on the three-team blockbuster as it wanted more payroll relief and seemed determined to find a way to shed themselves of the four years and $28 million left on Al Harrington’s(notes) contract.

By Adrian Wojnarowski,Yahoo Sports

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So it's been a couple weeks since I 'bated the old roster, and I couldn't stop myself.  But you know what?  I suspect most of you actually enjoy rosterbating.  And some of you just enjoy watching me rosterbate.  Perverts.  So for today's rosterbatory exercise, I came up with a wicked Menage et Trois:

Trade Machine!

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2fnpthg

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3xfx6hm

Summary:

Vince Carter and Robin Lopez go to Dallas.

Josh Smith, Shawn Marion, and a trade exception of about $2M land in Phoenix.

Roddy Beaubois and Brendan Haywood go to Atlanta.  Possibly a low 1st round pick as well (from Phx).

Why do this?:

The Phoenix Suns do this because it solves the logjam on the wing (-Vince), gives us a starting caliber PF (JSmoove), and reunites us with an old fan favorite who's career might be revitalized by a return to our medical staff and the passing of Steve Nash,  in return all we have to do is take on the corpse of Shawn Marion.  The starting frontcourt of Gortat/Smoove looks like an elite defensive duo - guarding the pick, making rotations, and shotblocking.  Frye/Marion coming off the bench gives us options to go bigger or smaller in the frontcourt depending on matchup.

The Dallas Mavericks do this because they lost Caron Butler to injury, and Vince can replace those stats and skills, this season.  They believe they are a championship contender, but not without that production.  They reunite Kidd/Carter, who already know how to work together.  They move Haywood, who is being paid too much to play backup center behind Tyson Chandler.  They get a young cheap center who they can bring off the bench behind Chandler now, and perhaps evolves into the future of their franchise, without losing much in the way of production.  Lastly, they also get rid of the bad contract of Marion.

The Atlanta Hawks do this because they get a starting quality center, allowing them to move Horford to his natural position at the 4.  They also get a young, cheap, PG who can score and slash (Beaubois), to replace the aging Bibby, and/or give them leverage in negotiations with Bibby and/or Crawford.  And they cut $3.5M from their atrocious team budget, to ease the pain of JJ's redonkulous contract.

Misc

This is two trades because Vince can't be traded along with another player right now.

So, as I was sitting here mulling the various ways that we could blow up this team, because we really, truly, suck right now, I began thinking about what sort of team construction we should have in the future.

This led me to examining the championship teams of years past, and I noticed something that struck me - a really high % of these championship teams had a point Forward rather than a traditional PG.  First, I thought it might be the Phil Jackson effect:

Jordan's Bulls - 6 championships with Scottie Pippen essentially running the point.  You didn't think John Paxon was running the point, did you?

Kobe's Lakers - 2 chips with Lamar Odom initiating the offense, and 3 with some combination of Rick Fox, Robert Horry, and Brian Shaw running the top of the strong side.  Does that make anyone else physically ill, or is it just me?  Derek Fisher essentially is a wing shooter who also sets goods screens for a guard.

Then I noticed that some other teams did really well with a point forward.

The Celtics of the 80's had Larry Bird sharing duties at running the point.

The showtime Lakers ran a real PG, right?  But Magic was 6'9" and played the other 4 positions as well as PG.  Magic is effectively a point forward, even though he was listed at PG.

Olajuwon's Rockets had Sam Cassell for their PG, but it was Robert Horry initiating the halfcourt sets feeding Hakeem Olajuwon the ball.  Cassell primarily did what a shooting guard would for this team - make plays in isolation when the shot clock was winding down.  Yeah, Sam, we see your balls.

KG's Celtics had Rondo, but they made their championship push in his rookie season, with Paul(ette) Pierce doing a lot of the handling, especially in crunch time.

That just leaves the double-Wallace Pistons (Billups), Duncan's Spurs (Parker), and the Bad Boy Pistons (Isiah Thomas).  Billups and Parker are scorers first, leaving Isiah as the only proto-typical distributing PG of the last 25 years to win a championship (!).  One other thing - all these teams hung their hat on defense, none were known as elite offensive teams.

 Even the teams that  didn't quite make it there, in recent years...LeBron made it all the way to finals with little backup. 

And yes, Orlando was at it's best with Hedo handling the rock; not Jameer Nelson.

BOLL indeed.

In just two days, all the players signed in the offseason, will officially become eligible for multi-player trades.

This also means that for those teams looking to "blow it up" or "re-tool," now is the time.  Currently, there are two teams that look like they might be in need of a full revamp: Portland and Denver.  Both teams were projected as playoff teams, and both are underperforming.

So, like vultures, let's circle over these teams and see what sort of bodies we might be able to salvage...

For Denver, there's drama over Carmelo's contract.  There's also allegedly drama within the locker room, with the two best players, Billups and Melo, not getting along.  Melo looks to be telling Denver "NY or bust;" he's likely to get the bust, since NY has very little to trade for Melo (Eddy's Curry's corpse and some crummy prospects).   If it doesn't happen, the Nuggets may choose to hold his contract, and try to add some pieces around him to take the team to a new level.  Chauncey Billups could conceivably be moved, or perhaps demoted to backup PG, due to Ty Lawson's strong play, and Billups struggles.

Portland is in more dire straights, with "franchise center" Greg Oden having been broken into a million pieces, and superstar Brandon Roy falling victim to a chronic injury that reduces his effectiveness significantly.  2nd banana LaMarcus Aldridge has underplayed his contract, and there is contention in the clubhouse and on the court between Roy and hired gun Andre Miller.  Something needs to give in Portland, and so far the only things giving way are players' knees.

On to the players:

Marcus Camby - would be a near perfect fit for the hold in the middle of our team, but Portland would basically be throwing in the towel on this season by doing so, so they would want back young talent, in the frontcourt.  Robin Lopez would probably need to be traded along with other rotation players (Warrick, Childress, possibly Dudley) to make this happen.

Andre Miller - would be the best backup PG in the league behind Steve.  However, they would need back a PG, and would want youth, so the deal would be for Goran Dragic + parts.  If you want to know how underrated Miller is, go look at Andre Igoudala's contract, and understand that Miller basically spoonfed that to him.

Brandon Roy - sure he's damaged goods, and he may not be worth that contract.  He doesn't play a position we need.  And the future might be damned with him on the hook for another 5 years.  But he's talented, tough, smart, and has a terrific arsenal of offensive moves.  Aaron Nelson might be able to do something for him.  Heck, just being out of Portland might be enough to make his knee magically repair itself.  This trade might represent a chance for us to contend in the west, especially if you could get a throwin PF like Pendergraph to fill space in the roster vacated by Warrick, who would presumably be traded away, along with Childress, Clark, and probably a draft pick.  Gamble big, win big, or lose big.  The opportunity is there.

Chauncey Billups - would make a fantastic backup PG, and can also spend time at the 2 guard position.  Has championship experience, and is a physical defender in the backcourt.  Denver would be looking for a star-right-now to put next to Melo and make him happy - that would probably be J-Rich.  Doesn't help our frontcourt issues, but we might be able to get a frontcourt rotation player back in the deal as well, though not anyone good (think: Birdman).

Kenyon Martin - ok, first swallow that little bit of throwup in your mouth.  Once that's done, remember that he plays the position that we need most (PF), and is a defensive presence.  Mostly, remember that he's an expiring contract ($16M), and that we could conceivably move Turk's albatross in exchange for renting him this season to fill an immediate need.  Childress would probably be the throwin in a deal that would aim to make Denver a better team right now so they could win something and prove to Carmelo that he ought to stay in Denver.

Al Harrington - went to Denver for mid-level money to play with Carmelo.  If Denver sees no hope of keeping Carmelo, or decides to trade him, they'd like to get rid of Harrington's long-term (5 years) deal.  Plays PF/C, and is a very good shooter outside.  Put up great if inconsistent scoring numbers in Golden State (beside J-Rich) and in New York (under D'Antoni).  Probably a really good fit for our team, since he already knows players here and the offensive scheme we run.

Chris "Birdman" Anderson - ok so he's tattooed his body Denver Nuggets colors, and he may be the biggest douchebag in the NBA (seriously, go to google images and type in his name).  But he's a shotblocking 4/5 who could play Barron's minutes better than Barron could.  Also, the price of such a trade is cheap - we might be able to pick hiim up with the remainder of the Amare TPE in exchange for, say... the right to exchange 2nd round picks in 2044 in the event that a blood moon occurs during the draft.

Oooooor, we could just trade Steve and Grant to Orlando and collectively waive our middle fingers at the Lakers, Heat, and Celtics.  Spoiling Kobe's 2nd three-peat and watching Steve win a title would be almost as gratifying as seeing the purple and orange hoist a banner, at least for me. =-)

Every summer, serious NBA players work on different facets of their game, attempting to add something they haven’t had before, or perfect those things.  Usually, this is a good thing.  But occasionally, players go too far, and lose the things that made them valuable in the first place, and become something entirely new. 

It seems that the core players for the 2nd unit of our beloved Phoenix Suns all underwent metamorphoses this summer.  But were they for the better, or for the worse?  Or are they simply different?

And now, because nobody demanded it... I shall elucidate:

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Ok, so it's only 4 games in, sample size, overreaction, blah blah blah, etc.  Now that we have that out of the way...

What should be apparent to anyone who watched last night's game (and the Portland Trailblazers game), is that the Suns are doing a piss-poor job of closing games out.  The Nash-Lopez pick and roll was our go-to option last night, and it looked aaaawwwwwful.  That may not even be enough a's to express how awful it was.

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It seems that there is a lot of speculation about whether we could get the Hawks' Josh Smith to the Suns, as well as whether or not it's actually a good idea.

What would we have to give up?  How much is too much?  Is that hole at power forward really that important?

So, before you decide to go all-in for J-Smoove, take a look at this old, but very good article, about the career arc of players in their "prime," and the ability to adjust to the aging process.

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/01/20/for-prime-out-loud/


Go on.  I'll wait.  When you get back, hit the jump.

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