SB Nation User Blog: jeck

MOD: Padres

jeck — Mon, 12 May 2008 20:17:46 -0000

With 8 picks in the five round mock, we’ve got a chance to make a big impact on a system that hasn’t been good for quite awhile.

San Diego has:

23.

42.

46.

69.

101.

111.

135.

165.

I’m going to attempt to avoid the Boras guys. San Diego has gone college-heavy in recent drafts and I’ll take that into account, but I generally tend toward the high school side.

I guess in the first MOD we should talk about the first round pick and what direction we should go there. Specifically, what do we think about the two-way players (Hicks, Martin, Kelly)? Hitter or pitcher and where does each fit in?

Throw out any other names you like at 23 (and say why, ideally). Also, the deputy position is currently wide open.

Lastings Milledge

jeck — Wed, 19 Apr 2006 22:00:14 -0000

After today's game, he's hitting .404/.525/.638 with 9 walks against 7 strikeouts through his first 47 ABs. Just a hot start or does the plate discipline indicate something more?

Milledge isn't exactly a prime candidate for "The Leap" given that's he's already a great prospect, but I'd love to see him make it. It would be fantastic to see one of these players with all the tools in the world actually put it all together for a change.

Definitely something to keep an eye on.

Brian Bannister

jeck — Tue, 19 Apr 2005 05:52:56 -0000

Doing his best Yusmeiro Petit impression so far.

3-0
16.1 IP
0.00 ERA
8 hits
4 BB
23 K

Scouting report sounds similar to Tim Stauffer.

::jeck hits submit::

Since I haven't hit 300 characaters, I will now start typing out that scouting report until I do.

"Bannister throws five different pitches and can locate them all. He works with a 90-92 fastball, a 12-to-6 curveball..."

Community Projection Breakdowns

jeck — Sun, 20 Mar 2005 21:37:40 -0000

Someone mentioned that they'd like to see PECOTA-style percentile breakdowns for our Community Projections. So here they are for the hitter we've done so far.

There's a bunch of ways you could do this; 10 different people would probably get 10 different sets of numbers. I sorted by each stat, taking the 75th percentile batting average, then the 75th percentile OBP, etc. etc. and combining those for the 75th percentile projection. I think that makes the results most like PECOTA's. Sometimes that's counter-intuitive, for example, PECOTA projects higher strikeout rates in its 75th percentile projection than its 25th percentile projection. So I did it that way too. I counted predictions made after John's cutoff and didn't count any that didn't have all the stats John asked for. Anyway...
The top numbers are our community's results, the bottom are PECOTA.

Nick Swisher - 58 guesses

Mean: .255/.359/.453 122 K (per 500 AB) <-- Us
Mean: .243/.350/.422 133 K <-- PECOTA

75th: .262/.370/.470 134 K
75th: .256/.364/.447 139 K

50th: .255/.360/.450 123 K
50th: .240/.344/.419 118 K

25th: .248/.350/.440 110 K
25th: .224/.324/.392 99 K

My guess: .252/.365/.470 139 K

Jose Reyes - 54 guesses

Mean: .278/.328/.415 38 SBs (per 500 AB)
Mean: .262/.304/.374 35 SBs

75th: .289/.340/.430 45 SBs
75th: .283/.326/.406 45 SBs

50th: .278/.328/.410 36 SBs
50th: .252/.293/.362 27 SBs

25th: .267/.315/.400 29 SBs
25th: .242/.281/.347 21 SBs

My guess: .305/.340/.410 52 SBs

Justin Morneau - 62 guesses

Mean: .279/.353/.521
Mean: .282/.351/.513

75th: .285/.360/.545
75th: .296/.365/.539

50th: .280/.351/.520
50th: .281/.349/.513

25th: .272/.345/.500
25th: .260/.325/.474

My guess: .276/.340/.530

J.J. Hardy - 32 guesses

Mean: .258/.323/.407 10 HR (per 450 ABs)
Mean: .269/.329/.437 15 HR

75th: .266/.340/.423 12 HR
75th: .290/.350/.476 16 HR

50th: .260/.320/.408 10 HR
50th: .257/.315/.423 15 HR

25th: .251/.309/.390 8 HR
25th: .236/.291/.389 14 HR

My guess: .265/.305/.395 8 HR

Austin Kearns - 36 guesses

Mean: .292/.375/.502 26 HR
Mean: .286/.388/.500 16 HR

75th: .304/.385/.517 30 HR
75th: .301/.406/.528 19 HR

50th: .290/.375/.506 26 HR
50th: .283/.384/.496 16 HR

25th: .280/.367/.475 21 HR
25th: .261/.358/.458 13 HR

My guess: did not make one

Corey Patterson - 62 projections

Mean: .276/.334/.477 28 SB
Mean: .278/.330/.475 24 SB

75th: .285/.340/.495 31 SB
75th: .292/.345/.499 29 SB

50th: .275/.334/.480 28 SB
50th: .277/.328/.474 22 SB

25th: .270/.325/.456 24 SB
25th: .257/.306/.440 15 SB

My guess: .268/.317/.460 22 SB

Mark Teahen - 27 guesses

Mean: .265/.334/.406 7 HR (per 350 ABs)
Mean: .248/.317/.372 7 HR

75th: .274/.343/.415 8 HR
75th: .262/.333/.397 7 HR

50th: .268/.335/.404 6 HR
50th: .242/.308/.366 7 HR

25th: .257/.322/.394 5 HR
25th: .221/.283/.335 7 HR

My guess: did not make one

Jason Bay - 36 guesses

Mean: .278/.357/.522 10 SB (per 500 ABs)
Mean: .274/.370/.507 11 SB

75th: .288/.368/.550 13 SB
75th: .287/.385/.534 14 SB

50th: .275/.360/.530 10 SB
50th: .273/.368/.507 11 SB

25th: .270/.345/.495 7 SB
25th: .253/.344/.470 9 SB

My guess: .272/.360/.530 7 SB

Rearranging the Top 50

jeck — Wed, 23 Feb 2005 21:55:47 -0000

Using only those players in BP's Top 50 and Honorable Mentions, here's my quick top 50.

Felix Hernandez
Andy Marte
Delmon Young
Casey Kotchman
Ian Stewart
Jeff Francis
Joel Guzman
Scott Kazmir
Dallas McPherson
Daric Barton
Carlos Quentin
Nick Swisher
Adam Miller
Lastings Milledge
Prince Fielder
Michael Aubrey
Anthony Reyes
Jeremy Reed
Chad Billingsley
Cole Hamels
Rickie Weeks
Yusmeiro Petit
Chris Burke
Dan Meyer
Ian Kinsler
Matt Cain
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Howard
Jason Kubel
Jeff Francoeur
Conor Jackson
Eric Duncan
Jose Capellan
Jeremy Hermida
Zach Duke
Curtis Granderson
Brian Anderson
Jesse Crain
Edwin Jackson
Gavin Floyd
Brain McCann
Richie Gardner
Joe Blanton
Brandon McCarthy
Edwin Encarnacion
Angel Guzman
Omar Quintanilla
Kyle Davies
Jered Weaver
Josh Willingham