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jeffgm

  • joined Feb 09, 2011
  • last login Jul 13, 2014
  • posts 15
  • comments 16171
User Blog
FanPost
12

Projecting The Leafs Future Points Using Various Analytic Methods

Leaf Actual Results The leafs actual points are 70 points (and with a 50% win rate on shootouts the leafs would have 67.5 points). Fenwick Close The Fenwick Close model is the most popular...

FanPost
65

How Sustainable Is Being Outshot

Can the Leafs' career shooting and save percentages help offset being outshot so wildly?

FanPost
6

Franchise Success and Consistency

Commonly franchise success in NBA is defined by how many NBA titles a team wins or more simply if a team wins the NBA championship in any given year. Others may choose to look at how many times a...

FanPost
7

Building Successful NBA Teams - Tanking and Smart Management

As if we haven't talked enough about tanking or rebuilding, Marx at Raptors Republic put a list of the NBA teams record since 95-96 the year the Raptors joined the NBA which has some insights. ...

FanPost
20

Did The Leafs Control Shot Quality in 2013?

Cronin recently suggested that shots were a "misleading stat" and that leafs were able to control "shot quality" for and against through their style of play. This is difficult for the advanced...

FanPost
11

Leafs Shot Differential By Distance

There has been much debate if Carlyle's defensive system that pushes shots to the outside has been beneficial and effective to the leafs. That is, a typical comment is that even though the...

FanPost
11

Are The Leafs Better Then What Fenwick Close Suggests?

Previously I wrote about Team Level QOC and suggested Teams face differing levels of QOC because of schedule differences A small change in QOC has a dramatic impact on the team's Fenwick Close ...

FanPost
7

A look at the 2013 Draft Rank Variation.

MyNHLDraft integrates a number different draft ranking sources and publishes a composite views of these rankings. The draft ranking output depends on these "experts" so take that as you will. ...

FanPost
13

Correlation of Fenwick Close vs P% and Normality

Previously I noted as shown in the table below how the large year to year variation in the correlation (R-squared) of Fenwick Close to P% should raise suspicions about the reliability of the...

FanPost
17

The Penalty Kill - Luck, Effectiveness and Being A Leaf

Regression of GA/60 and GD/60 vs Various Factors The regression of Goals Against every 60 minutes (GA/60) and Goal Differential (Goal For minus Goal Against) every 60 minutes (GD/60) on PK play vs...

FanPost
+

Take 2 Large Sample Size: Effects of Travel and Back to Back Games

The original blog entry brought up the question of sample size. And after some digging I found previous years data (2008 to 2011) to look at the effect of travel distance and back to back games...

FanPost
12

Fenwick Close Road + PDO A Better Correlation Than Fenwick Tied Road

Regression of P% vs Various Factors The regression of team winning (P% - percentage points) vs different factors from 2007 to 2011 is shown in the chart below for 1. P% vs Fenwick Tied Road % (FTR) ...

FanPost
8

Effects of Travel, Back to Back Games and Difficulty of Competition

Does Travel or # Back to Back Games or the Difficulty of Schedule Matter? I did some analysis on the data from On The Forecheck looking at the effect of distance, back to back games and Quality of...

FanPost
+

Predicting Team Winning using PDO and Fenwick

Background and Definitions Point Percentage (P%) is the percent of total points a team earns (team points divided by total possible points). P% is the measure used to represent team winning. F...

FanPost
14

Another Look at Leaf Goaltending This Year

Below I take a look at leafs goaltending on special teams and shot distance. First off a general over view of the three leaf goalies compared to League Average and Best in League numbers. TOI...

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