More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Ricky Romero (right) reacts to manager Cito Gaston (left) telling him what Bill James (not depicted) has projected for his 2010 season. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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For a first-round draft pick out of college, Ricky Romero struggled a bit on his way to the majors but after cracking the rotation with a strong spring before the 2009 season, he got off to a good start to his major league career before landing on the DL with a strained oblique.  Upon returning to the rotation, Romero soon regained his form and was pitching great into early July, when he began to run into some control problems.  After the All-Star Break, Romero seemed to have trouble finding the zone (3.1 BB/9 first half vs. 4.8 BB/9 second half).  Another concern is that Ricky also appeared far more hittable during the second half than in the first (.290 BAbip-against first half vs. .372 BAbip-against second half).  How much of his being more hittable can be attributed to luck and how much to skill remains to be seen.

It's not all gloom-and-doom, however.  One encouraging aspect of Romero's development through the majors thus far has been his ability to strike out batters, which he displayed in the second half almost as well as in the first (an healthy 7.1 K/9-rate in both halves, though his high second half BABIP inflated that value).  He struck out so many hitters because his change-up generated quite a few errant swings (his whiff% was seventh in the league at 22.1% compared to a league average 19.5%).  Romero finished the season with 178 IP and an FIP of 4.33, worth (according to fangraphs) about 2.7 WAR, the same number as Yovani Gallardo and Derek Lowe and about half a win less than our old friend A.J. Burnett.  I'd say that puts Ricky Romero in pretty good company . . . for 2009, at least.

But, looking ahead to 2010, what should we expect from Ricky?  Well, most people didn't consider him to be much of a breakout candidate for the 2009 season, which could work for him (because he proved the skeptics wrong) or against him (because it was a fluke), depending on how you look at it.  There are sound arguments for both sides.  On the one hand, Romero's weak second half could be due to a physical breakdown.  He pitched a lot of innings early in the season, throwing as many as 333 pitches over a three start stretch in late-June.  On the other hand, Romero pitched more than 160 innings of minor league ball in 2008 and actually finished quite strong in a late-season callup to AAA after a lacklustre performance in AA.  However, while he pitched a full MiLB season in 2008, he was injured in 2006 and 2007, so it is possible that delayed effects of his heavy workload in 2008 caused some tiredness earlier than we'd expect otherwise.

Personally, I find myself pretty optimistic about his ability to reproduce -- and perhaps even build on -- the year he had.  Remember, Ricky does not need to replicate his excellent first half to be a valuable asset to this team in 2010.  As long as he can continue to strike out batters at a rate of 7+ K/9, he can afford to yield some free passes, particularly considering his propensity for inducing groundballs, which at 54% was second in the AL to fellow rookie Rick Porcello.  Walks are always bad, but grounders with runners on can very easily turn into double plays and Romero benefitted from 30 twin killings in 2009.  As long as he keeps hitters swinging and missing and keeps the ball on the ground when they do connect, he should be okay, even if his control is a bit erratic from time to time.  Last week, Tom mentioned that Bill James projected Ricky Romero to throw 190 innings with a 5.59 ERA.  My outlook for Ricky in 2010 is -- as I mentioned before -- somewhat more optimistic, around the same number of innings, but with an FIP of about 4.20.

Special thanks to Elvis Costello for the post title, when Ricky Romero implodes next season, I'll wear it proudly.

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

Rod Barajas congratulates Roy Halladay on having the lowest fastball-thrown percentage in the American League. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

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This season, Roy Halladay, dominated batters to the tune of a 17-10 record and 2.79 ERA.  In a stellar 2008 campaign, the Doc won 20 games with a 2.78 ERA.  Three seasons ago, back in 2007, Halladay posted a 16-7 record with a 3.71 ERA.  He went 16-5 in 2006, when his ERA was 3.19.  If Halladay places in the top 5 in 2009's Cy Young Award voting, it would be for the fourth consecutive time (and if Kevin Mench hadn't done his first disservice to Blue Jays fans in 2005, it would almost certainly be his fifth).  And yet, the 2006 Roy Halladay was not the same as the 2009 Roy Halladay.  As good as Doc was back in '06, he's even better now.

In 2006, Halladay was an absolute groundball-inducing machine.  57% of batted balls were grounders, third in the AL.  In 2009, Halladay's groundball-rate fell a bit to 50.2% -- still good for 4th in the AL and 15th in the majors.  So Halladay hasn't induced quite as many grounders as he did four years ago, but he's still pretty good at getting them to hit the top half of the ball.  Halladay's infield-fly (pop-up)-rate was 13.8% in 2006 (third in the League).  His mark of 12.5% in 2009 placed him fifth.  Again, not getting quite as many pop-ups, but he's still among the best.  In 2006, Halladay walked 34 batters over 220 innings (1.4 BB/9, second in the AL).  In 2009, Halladay led the AL with 1.3 BB/9.  Still similar.  But here is where the similarity stops.  In 2006, Halladay struck out 132 batters (5.40 K/9, 26th in the AL).  In 2009, Halladay struck out 208 batters over 239 innings (7.8 K/9, 8th in the AL).  How much of a difference do two or three strikeouts a game make?  Well, in Halladay's case it seems like the difference between an FIP of 3.60 and an FIP of 3.06, corresponding to a difference of about 1.5 WAR, according to Fangraphs.  The difference between Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia this season was about 1.3 WAR.  Roy Halladay was signficantly better than C.C. Sabathia this season.

So how does an already-excellent pitcher make himself even better?  It seems that the underlying cause is his increased reliance on the cut-fastball.  Since first using the pitch about five years ago, Doc has been working it into his repertoire more and more -- throwing it more than 40% of the time in 2009 (up from just 19% in 2006).  Throwing more cutters has led to fewer fastballs (52% in 2006, 47% in 2007, 41% in 2008 and just 32% in 2009).  As Doc's fastball is generally of the two-seam variety, it should come as no surprise that his increasing reliance on the cutter would result in missing more bats (80.4% contact-rate in 2009 vs. 82.9% contact-rate in 2006) but would also result in fewer ground balls.  It remains to be seen whether Halladay will throw even more cutters in 2010, but if recent history is any indicator, there is a definite trend.

Well, our corvids look to keep our their fine play over the last week and a half (having won five straight and eight of the last nine).

Roy Halladay is on the hill for the Jays and -- since Boston backed into the playoffs last night with a Texas loss -- the Red Sox send out their B-Squad, featuring Joey Gathright in centre, Josh Reddick in left, Alex Gonzalez at short (with Jed Lowrie playing third in Mike Lowell's stead) and another old friend of ours, Chris Woodward.  While the SAWKS may not be playing their best, it won't be easy for Doc to live up to the expectations he set with his last start, in which he recorded nine strikeouts and zero walks in a shutout of the Mariners.

Kevin Millar gets another start at third for the Toronto nine (and this time he bats third in the lineup?  I understand that's because of Wakefield, but still . . .) and Randy Ruiz gets the start at DH.

If it's Doc's last start as a Jay, I hope it's a good one.

Today's thread title comes from the Tom Waits song "You're Innocent When You Dream"

Well, the Jays look to continue their fine play of late when they send Ricky Romero to the hill tonight against the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz.  Ricky's had some real control problems, since 29 August, he's started six games and walked 23 in just 34 2/3 innings.  Against a team as patient as the Red Sox, it's going to be important for him to sort those issues out early.

Hopefully Lefty can figure out the Red Sox, who have batted .377 / .506 / .652 in 4 games so far, with 17 walks (and two hit batsmen) against just 20 strikeouts.  In those four starts Ricky has managed to get through five innings just once (and didn't make it out of the sixth in that start).  And hopefully our bats can figure out Buchholz, who has 3-0 against us with a 1.35 ERA over three starts and 20 innings (16 K, 6 BB).

Yep, Kevin Millar is starting at third.

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

It's been a long season for Number 10. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Okay, so let me say straightaway that -- unpopular as this may be -- I am a Vernon Wells fan.  And I don't mean that in the, "I like the Jays and Vernon Wells is on the Jays so I like him" sense.  I mean it in the, "If Vernon Wells played for the Minnesota Twins, I would check the boxscores everyday to see how he did" sense.  That's why it's been doubly hard for me to watch his struggles this season, both at the plate (where he's been six runs below average) and in the field (19.3 runs below average), where he got off to an horrendous start, but seems to have gotten a bit of his range back.  For a stretch this season, in fact, Vernon Wells was actually rated as the Least Valuable Player in the League.  However, thanks to some good play of late, the centrefielder has passed several players and has managed to exit MLB's bottom five.

Now, personally, I think Ultimate Zone Rating may have been somewhat unkind to Vernon and some of the other defensive metrics (such as +/-) may show his defence has not been quite as bad as UZR shows.  Twenty runs below average is so bad that it means that he would be about a full win below average even in a corner slot.  I tend to think he would be fine in RF or LF, but with the departure of Alex Rios, we don't exactly have many other options for centre.  So, if Vernon's fielding is a bit better than UZR has shown, he's probably at replacement level now, but let's work on the assumption that UZR is right about him.

This may be a bizarre part of my fandom, but I really hope Vernon makes it up to replacement level by season's end.  At 2.7 runs below replacement right now, it would take a pretty solid next two weeks for him to make up that ground, but it certainly isn't impossible.  We all know that Vernon is a feel hitter and he seems to have improved at both the plate and in the field of late.  For those who are wondering, three runs above replacement in 16 games, equates to roughly 31 runs above replacement over a full season (or about 3 Wins Above Replacement), which is about how well Jason Kubel, Todd Helton and Ryan Theriot have played so far.  If Vernon stays relatively hot, this is a pretty realistic goal and could make it worthwhile to pay attention to the rest of the season.  So join me in wishing Vernon the best, and let's cheer him on in his quest to reach replacement level for 2009!

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

I know Hideki Matsui's just doing his job, but why does he have to do it so well against the Jays? This was his sixth homerun and he hit .373 / .439 / .745 against us this season. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Yankees 5   Blue Jays 4

Well, the Yankees took an early lead off Brian Tallet when they scored two runs in the first inning, off an RBI double by Mark Teixeira and an RBI single by Hideki Matsui.  Vernon Wells doubled to lead off the second, but the Jays were unable to cash him.  In the bottom of the second, Tallet took a grounder off his foot.  He stayed with the ball, got the out at first and got a strikeout to end the inning.  In the top of the third, the Jays came back to tie it up, thanks to a solo homerun from Jose Bautista and successive singles from Travis Snider and Marco Scutaro (an infield single off Yankees starter Chad Gaudin) and an Adam Lind RBI groundout.  Shawn Camp came on to relieve Tallet due to injury concerns related to the grounder he took off the foot in the third and pitched three scoreless (indeed excellent) innings.

The Jays plated a run in the sixth  off a Vernon Wells single, Lyle Overbay double and Rod Barajas RBI groundout, but were unable to add to the lead thanks to an intentional walk to Jose Bautista (I'm not making that up), which led to a Moonraker strikeout against Damaso Marte.  Casey Janssen pitched an excellent sixth inning and the Jays added another run in the top of the seventh when Scoot doubled and Lind got him in with a sacrifice fly.  Tek came back out for the seventh and ran into a bit of trouble when he gave up a single and Edwin Encarnacion made an error (albeit on a pretty tough play).  However, Jeremy Accardo came in and got a quick strikeout, walked Derek Jeter and then induced a fly ball to left to escape the inning with the two-run lead still in tact.  Tom requested that I do the recap and that's when things -- naturally -- fell apart.  Cito went to Scott Downs for the eighth and before being removed with -- I think -- elbow tightness, he yielded a single to Alex Rodriguez and a game-tying dinger to Hideki Matsui.  Jason Frasor closed out the eighth, but the Jays were unable to capitalize on a Moonraker bunt single in the top of the ninth and the score was tied at four going into the bottom of the ninth.  Leading off the inning, Brett Gardner singled off Frasor on a full count and predictably stole second base.  Derek Jeter grounded out to put Gardner on third and he scored when Francisco Cervelli (playing only because of Jorge Posada's suspension) drove him home with the game-winning single.

Jays of the Day: Camp (.185), Accardo (.159) and Overbay (.159).  Honorable mentions to Scoot and Vernon, who had a single and double each, as well as Tek, who would have fared better, were it not for E5's error.

Towers goes to Tallet (-.110), though he may have fared better if he'd been able to stay in.

Batistas go to Snakeface (-.380) and Frasor (-.306).

Hinskes go to Lind (-.161, in spite of the two RBI) and E5 (-.138, plus the error) and Rod Barajas comes close (-.095).

Well, at least we don't have to watch anymore Yankees walk-off wins this year.

Hi all, in a bit of a rush so just a quick thread tonight and the Pedro the Lion-inspired title says it all.

Brian Tallet gets the start against Chad Gaudin.  Moonraker bats 9th, I guess two homeruns wasn't enough.  Let's go Jays!

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Vernon Wells is congratulated by his Müllerian mimic. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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As we all know, the Chicago White Sox snatched Alex Rios up from waivers earlier this week.  How has a player who was rumored to be involved in a trade straight-up for Tim Lincecum (or at least Matt Cain) fallen so far and so quickly?  Well, Rios is having his worst season (currently at 1.1 WAR) since he was just 24 years old back in 2005.  The Jays signed him to a long-term deal early in the 2008 season and his batting numbers seemed to fall off immediately. 

After hitting 41 homeruns in 1209 plate appearances in 2006 and 2007, Rios has hit just 29 in 1166 over the last two seasons.  In addition to his decrease in power (ISO-P has fallen each season since 2006), he's had trouble getting on base (particularly this season, when he is OBPing just .317).  After posting wOBAs of .365 and .368 in 2006 and 2007, Rios lost a bit last year (.350) and has fallen even farther so far this season (.329).  He is hitting more grounders than he did in '06 and '07 and fewer line-drives, while also popping more balls up.  His HR/flyball rate this year (9.5%) has actually rebounded some from 2008 (7.4%), but it is not quite where it was back when he was really productive at the plate (11% in '06 and 10% in '07).  While all these statistics are essentially telling us the same thing -- that Rios's offensive production has considerably regressed -- it is useful to look at them all, because the more that they agree, the more likely they are to be representative of what is actually happening.

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