SB Nation User Blog: jessef

All These Verses Share a Theme, It's the Great Decay: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Baltimore Orioles

jessef — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:23:34 -0000

Last time we faced him, Jeremy Guthrie did this. Let's make him do it again. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

Well, that was another incredibly frustrating series. If it seems like our boys have been in 'em, but just can't seem to win 'em, there's a reason for that. Despite being outscored only 42 - 34, the Jays have now dropped six of their last seven games. No one likes to be outscored, but the Pythagorean Winning Percentage in that case should be about 40%, which means that, if luck were even just a bit on their side, this team could easily be 3 - 4 instead of 1 - 6 over that span (still not great, but certainly not let's-cash-in-all-our-chips-bad, either).

Anyway, the Jays hope to turn things around this weekend in Baltimore 10 - 12 July. Local boy Brett Cecil gets the start tomorrow night at 7:00 against Jason Berken. Ricky Romero starts the Saturday night game for the Jays and the Orioles counter with Brad Bergesen, whose been quite successful thus far. It's been unannounced who will pitch for the Jays on Sunday (their last game before the All Star break), but I am anticipating that it willl be Marc Rzepczynski. Jeremy Guthrie is slotted to make the start for the O's.

Okay, guys, let's take this series, head into the break with at least a .500 record and enjoy some well-deserved time off. We know you've had to deal with injuries and we just want to see you play your best. By the way, today's post title comes from Cursive and -- while I'm sad to say it -- I think we all know what's inspired it.

10 July

Jason Berken (1-5, 6.25, 1.661 WHIP)

Berken is a lean (175 lbs, 6' 0" tall) righthander who underwent Tommy John surgery years ago, but has recovered quite well. He has run into some trouble after some possibly flukey success following his late-May callup to the Orioles rotation. Over eight starts, Berken has pitched 40 1/3 innings, striking out 25 (5.6 K/9) and walking 15 (3.3 BB/9). In his favour, Berken has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park so far (just 3 HR), but his batted ball data seem to suggest this dearth of homeruns as being more luck-driven than a result of a repeatable skill (38.9% groundball, 5.8% HR/flyball). If it is luck-driven, Berken is probably deserving of it, as he has had quite a bit of misfortune on balls that do not leave the park (.345 BABIP), nor has he been particularly lucky stranding batters that do reach (61% strand-rate). As time goes on, Berken will have trouble keeping his homerun-rate where it is (particularly at hitter-friendly Camden Yards), but as his other luck improves, things should even out a bit for him and his ERA will probably come down a tad from where it is now. He did have a strong season at AA last season, but at the age of 24 was a little old for the league.

In Berken's eight starts so far, he has PQSed 2, 3, 0, 0, 4, 3, 2 and 0 for a mean of 1.75 and Dominance- and Disaster-rates of 13% and 38%. Berken's had quite a bit of trouble pitching deep in games, pitching more than five innings just twice so far this season and topping the hundred pitch mark just twice (though he threw 99 once as well).

So far in the majors, lefties have seen a moderately strong platoon advantage against Berken (.337 / .390 / .481; 1.57 K/BB) as compared to righties (.273 / .360 / .416; 1.75 K/BB), though the difference in BABIP (.367 against lefties vs. .317 against righties) seems to have more to do with it than any slight difference in walk-rate or isolated power (.144 against lefties vs. .143 against righties). Berken was a bit less effective against lefties in the minors, striking out a bit less and walking a bit more, but their advantage was slight at best.

Berken is your classic four-pitch pitcher, throwing a low-90's four-seamer that he mixes up with a decent straight change. If his fastball had just a bit more life, it would make his change that much better, but unfortunately you can't have everything. He also throws an average slider and an average curve.

11 July

Brad Bergesen (5-3, 3.59, 1.188 WHIP)

Bergesen was covered earlier this season. Since then, Bergesen has ridden his sinker to a 3.59 ERA and a 1.188 WHIP. His success comes from his ability to induce grounders at a 52.8% clip, while keeping his walks down (just 23 in 97 2/3 IP, 2.2 BB/9). He has only struck out 50 (4.8 K/9), but as long as you keep the ball out of the air and you don't issue any free passes, it's all right to pitch to some contact. Since our write-up, he's turned some heads, see Dave Cameron's quick look here at fangraphs.

Over his 15 starts this season, Bergesen has PQSed 4, 0, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5 and 4 for a mean of 3.5 and impressive Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 50% and just 7%. PQS is kind to pitchers who tend to keep the ball in the strike zone and out of the air. The string that he's run off in his last six starts (the 2 was a complete game five-hitter) is particularly noteworthy (and potentially troubling to us Jays fans).

As mentioned in the previous writeup, Bergesen does not walk righties (Cito, please do not start Bautista), but lefties are another story. Righties have actually exhibited a better line (.264 / .290 / .415; 4.83 K/BB) than lefties (.236 / .310 / .360; 1.24 K/BB), but luck has had a significant part to play in that (.289 BABIP against righties vs. .240 BABIP against lefties).

Bergesen has mainly stuck to the same formula he had when he started the season, but he's become a bit more comfortable with his change and will challenge lefties out of the zone with it, even when behind in the count.

12 July

Jeremy Guthrie (6-8, 5.35, 1.426 WHIP)

Guthrie was also covered in the writeup. For some reason, Guthrie has had problems keeping the ball on the ground in 2009 (37.6% GroundBall-rate vs. 42.2% career), which has led to a league-leading 20 HR in 101 IP (1.73 HR/9). Otherwise, Guthrie has not been too bad, though he has lost some of the life on his fastball. He shouldn't be too bad going forward, but the declining groundball-rate could be a bad sign. Neither FIP nor xFIP (which normalizes HR-rate) show him to be unlucky so far.

In 18 starts, Guthrie has PQSed 2, 4, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 4, 3, 0, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3 and 0 for a mean of 2.44 and Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 28% and 22%. Hopefully the Jays can draw his Disaster-rate even with his Dominance-rate.

Ships May Ply the Stormy Ocean: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

jessef — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:27:38 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

The lanky southpaw stands in the way of Doc's 11th win. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

Browse more photos »

Well, at least the Jays did manage to take the last game of the series, but any time you lose a series 3-1 to a division rival, you're going to be frustrated. When that series is against the Yankees it just makes you grind your teeth together even harder. The Jays hope to end the first half of the season on a good note as they continue their road trip. Coming up next, the Jays go to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays in a mid-week series 7-9 July. Marc Smith Rzepczynski makes his major league debut tomorrow night for the Jays and James Shields pitches for the home team. On Wednesday night, two southpaws meet, when Brian Tallet pitches for Toronto and Scott Kazmir is on the hill for the Rays. Finally, there is a getaway game on Thursday afternoon, when Doc looks for his first win since returning from the DL and young lefty David Price starts for Tampa Bay.

7 July

James Shields (6-6, 3.50, 1.271 WHIP)

Shield was covered just last week, so I won't get into any more detail on him right now, but I imagine we all remember his last start, an hard-luck loss to our Jays when he pitched into the eighth inning and ended up giving up five runs despite striking out eight and walking just one. Rod Barajas tagged him for an homerun in the seventh inning and Adam Lind and Scott Rolen went back-to-back in the eighth, so we'll see if they can do the same this week.

8 July

Scott Kazmir (4-5, 6.79, 1.796 WHIP)

Kazmir has been around so long, you may not realize how young he still is at just 25. He was a first-round pick out of high school and has been in the majors since he was just 20 years old. The oft-injured lefty had a rough start to the season, but has put together two fine starts since returning from the Disabled List 27 June. If you've ever heard the phrase "pitch-to-contact" associated with Scott Kazmir, I assume there was a "not" in there somewhere. Over 778 2/3 career innings, Kazmir has struck out 829 batters (9.6 K/9), but he has also walked 363 (4.2 BB/9). For some perspective, through age 25, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan had pretty similar peripherals (9.0 K/9 vs. 4.8 BB/9 for Koufax and 9.3 K/9 vs. 5.7 BB/9 for Ryan). If you're pitching to about as much contact as a young Koufax or Ryan, you're not pitching to much contact. As mentioned above, Kazmir got off to a rough start to 2009 before going on the DL, but has bounced back well since his return. Overall, Kazmir has started 11 games and pitched 55 2/3 innings, striking out 46 (7.4 K/9) and walking 31 (5.0 BB/9), but in his two starts since his return he's struck out 11 (9.9 K/9) and walked just two (1.8 BB/9) over ten innings (five innings in each start). His peripherals have not been very good, but as long as his strand-rate of just 63% increases a bit, his ERA should come down a bit closer to his FIP of 5.35.

So far this season, Kazmir has PQSed 3, 5, 0, 3, 0, 4, 1, 0, 0, 4 and 4 for a mean of just 2.2 and Dominance- and Disaster-rates of 36% each.

Kazmir has always been extremely tough on lefties (.220 / .283 / .328; 3.19 K/9 career) and relatively successful against righties (.254 / .346 / .419; 2.11 K/9). This season, lefties have hit him quite hard (.306 / .394 / .581; 4 HR in 71 Plate Appearances) and righties have hit him harder than in the past as well (.298 / .379 / .452). Nonetheless, given the option, I'd try my luck against Jeff Niemann again this week before facing Kazmir. Unfortunately, we weren't given that option, so Kazmir it will be.

Kazmir throws both kinds of fastballs and can dial up his four-seamer to the mid-90's. He also throws a hard slider to lefties and a change to righties. His best pitch is probably his four-seamer but if he is locating his change, you'll see him miss a lot of bats with it as well. All in all, the Jays will be glad to have three strikes per at-bat, because they'll likely need all of them pretty frequently.

9 July

David Price (2-3, 5.21, 1.711 WHIP)

The 2007 first overall pick and super-prospect out of Vanderbilt University is a tall kid who was called up towards the end of last season and pitched well enough during the season to make the postseason roster and pitch 5 1/3 innings last postseason between the ALCS and World Series. Price has had a bit rougher go of it in his eight starts so far this season since being called up in late May, but has shown flashes of absolute brilliance. Over 38 innings, the tall lefty has struck out 40 (9.5 K/9) but has also walked 30 (7.1 BB/9) and allowed seven homers (1.7 HR/9). He still has plenty of time to work on his command, so we'll be seeing plenty of him in the next few years. Price's minor league sample is small, but he did not have any control problems in college, A+ or AA ball, but has had some difficulty at the AAA level (4.6 BB/9, albeit in just 52 1/3 innings). Price's ERA this season has been inflated somewhat by a low strand-rate (65%), but probably not quite as much as his good fortune on batted balls (.277 BABIP despite 24% linedrive-rate) has kept it down.

In his eight starts, Price has PQSed 0, 4, 2, 0, 3, 0, 3 and 0 for a mean of just 1.5 and a Dominance-rate of only 12.5% and Disaster-rate of 50%. When he scored a four, he was pretty masterful, though, striking out 11 and walking two over 5 2/3 innings.

As you'd expect of a tall southpaw, in his short major league career, Price has pitched well against lefties (.246 / .328 / .368; 2.14 K/9). He has been pretty effective against righties as well (.213 / .339 / .404; 1.37 K/9), but a drastic difference in BABIP (.317 vs. lefties, .232 vs. righties) suggests that his platoon splits should be more extreme than they seem. In the minors, Price struck out lefties at a higher rate (10.2 K/9 against lefties, 8.1 K/9 against righties) but he's also walked them a bit more (3.3 BB/9 against lefties, 2.9 BB/9 against righties).

Price can get his four-seam fastball up into the mid-high 90's, and throws his two-seamer in the low-90s range. He also throws a hard slider in the high 80's, but the pitch is more of a power curve type pitch, with little horizontal movement. We may see him throw a straight change or two just to mix things up if he's ahead in the count against a free swinger like Big Rod, but he's primarily a two-pitch pitcher at this point in his career.

This Poverty is Hurting My Pride, Buddy, Can You Spare Me a Dime?: Next Series Pitchers Preview: New York Yankees

jessef — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:39:38 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Hopefully we will be seeing this a lot on Monday afternoon. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Browse more photos »

The Jays get back on the road tomorrow afternoon for a four-game series (all afternoon games) at the new Yankee Stadium 3 - 6 July (I guess they're technically in New York already, but you get the idea). After dropping the series to the Rays at home, it is even more important to have a good showing this weekend.

The Jays hope Brian Tallet can bounce back from his mediocre start last weekend (six walks in six innings is too many) and the Yankees turn to A.J. Burnett, who dominated the Mets last week. On Independence Day here in the States, we send out the Doc to try continue his fine pitching against the Yankees (6-1, 54.0 IP, 13 R, 31 K, 7 BB since last year) and the Yankees counter with Chien-Ming Wang. On Sunday afternoon, Scott Richmond looks for a little revenge against the lineup that tagged him for five runs in less than two innings on 13 May and Joba Chamberlain starts for the Yanks. Finally, the series wraps up on Monday with Ricky Romero, who's been lights out since the beginning of June (5-1, 42 1/3 IP, 40 K, 14 BB), facing Andy Pettitte. C.C. pitches tonight, so we won't be facing him (though it would be hard not to see his "Purpose-built Body"). Thanks to the Kinks, by the way, for today's post-title, which refers to the Yankees writing off the construction of their stadium from revenue-sharing responsibilities.

3 July

A.J. Burnett (6-4, 3.93, 1.372 WHIP)

We all know A.J. well enough. Through 94 innings over 15 starts this season, Burnett has been pretty fortunate, sporting a 3.93 ERA in spite of issuing 47 walks (4.5 BB/9) thanks to a tidy BABIP of .284 and a very high strand-rate of 77.9%. He's been a bit prone to giving up homers this season, but flyball pitchers tend to give up homeruns and sometimes those homeruns are in bunches. His HR/Flyball rate (13%) is not terribly out of line with his career norms and any variation that we have seen could likely be due to pitching in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His FIP is a much higher 4.66, so as his strand-rate comes back down to Earth, his ERA should move in the opposite direction

In his 15 starts, Burnett as PQSed 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 0, 5, 5 and 5 for a mean of 3.6, a Dominance-rate of 60% and a Disaster-rate of just 7%. Hopefully the Jays can give him his second zero in seven starts, but Burnett may be hitting his stride.

Bizarrely, Burnett has exhibited strong reverse platoon splits this year, keeping lefties in check (.209 / .320 / .351; 2.07 KBB) but having trouble with righties (.275 / .358 / .458; 1.78 K/BB). Some of this difference could be attributable to difference in BABIP between lefties (.268) and righties (.302), but certainly not all of it. Over his career, Burnett has been about equally tough on both lefties and righties.

Burnett, as we know, pairs a 94 mph four-seam fastball with a devastating curve. Although he also throws a change on occasion, Burnett is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, and he uses his big hook as a change of both pace and plane in relation to his fastball.

4 July

Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06, 2.127 WHIP)

After his 2008 season was cut short by a baserunning injury last year, hopes were high for Wang's return. Unfortunately for Wang, he ran into trouble almost immediately and the Yankees DLed him after giving up 23 runs on as many hits and six walks in just six innings over his first three starts. Since his return on 22 May, Wang has been much improved but has not necessarily been great either (30 2/3 IP, 37 H, 26 K, 12 BB). Overall, with 28 strikeouts over 36 2/3 innings, Wang's actually improved his strikeout-rate dramatically (5.8 K/9 in 2008 vs. 4.2 K/9 career), but his walk-rate has also jumped (4.4 BB/9 in 2008 vs. 2.7 BB/9 career). Wang's real problems this year stem from his atrocious luck on balls in play (.422 BABIP), but that will come down. His linedrive-rate is actually a tad lower this season than last, so Wang should be okay the rest of the season, in spite of currently sporting an ERA over 10. Nonetheless, an FIP of 5.28 is nothing to brag about.

So far this season, lefties have absolutely mashed Wang (.409 / .481 / .677; 0.82 K/BB), while righties have also mashed him (.324 / .382 / .485; 2.71 K/BB), but not absolutely. Over his career, lefties (.284 / .344 / .417; 0.99 K/BB) have hit him better, but not to an insane degree, than righties (.261 / .312 / .345; 2.36 K/BB).

Wang is a two-seam fastball pitcher who, like most sinkerball pitchers, is most effective when he keeps the ball down in the zone. He mixes in a slider occasionally, but it's really just the sinker over and over.

5 July

Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 3.89, 1.469 WHIP)

I can't really stand Chamberlain. I really hope we hit him hard. I tried to find the clip of Aubrey Huff's homerun off him for us all, but I don't know if mlb.com is hosting it. Anyway, Chamberlain has pitched 81 innings over 15 starts so far and, outside of some control issues (40 BB and 9 HBP) he's been pretty good. He's struck out 73 (8.1 K/9) against those 40 walks (4.4 BB/9), so although he has been putting runners on, he has also been keeping bats off the ball. Those high strikeout- and walk-rates do come at a pretty costly price, though. His inefficiency has frequently kept him from getting through the seventh (he's pitched seven innings once and eight innings once) and he averages around 5 1/2 innings per start. The Yankees have been limiting his innings, but that is not the reason for it, as he has thrown at least 100 pitches in seven of his starts (and at least 90 in four others). He's also been assisted by a strand-rate of 77%, though his BABIP is pretty normal. Last season, in Chamberlains first career start, the Jays were quite patient against him and he was out of the game very early (granted, he was on a strict pitch count of 65). They might be wise to employ that strategy again on Sunday.

In 15 starts, Chamberlain has PQSed 5, 0, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 0, 0, 4, 5, 0, 3, 4 and 2 for a mean of 2.7 and Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 47% and 33%, respectively. The disaster-rate is so high because Chamberlain has been so inefficient that he's had trouble getting through the fifth inning at times.

Chamberlain has had some trouble this season against righties (.276 / .347 / .470; 2.67 K/BB), but he's kept lefties at bay pretty well (.250 / .373 / .357; 1.46 K/BB). Over his career, Chamberlain's been about equally effective, regardless of batter handedness, but he does tend to nibble against lefties and generally prefers walking them to coming over the plate when he's behind in the count.

Chamberlain is another primarily two-pitch pitcher. He throws a fastball in the mid-90's or so (do not be alarmed if you have the Yankees broadcast and they claim it is in the high 90's or even 100, I think the Yankee Stadium radar gun measures the speed of the ball as it leaves the pitchers' hands), that has plenty of movement on it. His best pitch, though, is his slider, which is considered one of the best righthanded sliders in baseball. He has experimented with a curve and a change this year, but he's had some trouble locating them.

6 July

Andy Pettitte (8-3, 4.25, 1.500 WHIP)

Pettitte's managed to win eight games so far, but his best days are behind him. He's struck out 66 over 97 1/3 innings (5.9 K/9) and walked 37 (3.3 BB/9) en route to 4.57 FIP. As his strand-rate comes down from 74%, his ERA will approach that FIP. Pettitte beat the Jays earlier this season when he pitched six innings and gave up two runs (only one earned), but did walk four and strike out only two. Hopefully his luck catches up to him on Monday and the Jays bats get and stay hot through the series.

Pettitte's started 16 games and has PQSed 5, 4, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3, 5, 0 and 5 for a mean of 3.2 a Dominance-rate of 44% and a Disaster-rate of 19%. I'd like to see the Jays hand him his fourth disaster and his fourth loss on Monday.

As Pettitte has aged, he's platoon splits have become stronger. His career numbers show very muted platoon splits (732 OPS vs. righties, 710 OPS vs. lefties), but in 2009 righties (.291 / .369/ .442; 1.20 K/BB) have killed him, while he's been just as effective against lefties as ever (.268 / .304 / .721; 5.00 K/BB). In 2008, righties OPSed 787 against him and he held lefties to 731.

Pettitte throws a four-seamer in the high-80's and a two-seamer in the mid-80s. He throws a lot of changeups to righties and will throw the cutter to both righties and lefties. He also throws a big curveball.

Oh, What a Vague Description of What We Have Been Missing: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

jessef — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 13:58:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

No, that's Jeff Niemann, not Jamie Campbell in a Rays jersey. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

Browse more photos »

After a disappointing series against the Phillies, the Jays continue their homestand with three games coming up against the Tampa Bay Rays this week. The series opens on Monday night when Doc Halladay returns from the Disabled List and Jeff Niemann hurls for the Rays. On Tuesday night, Scott Richmond tries to continue his fine work this season and Matt Garza seeks to continue his dominance of the Jays. The series and homestand conclude on Wednesday afternoon with an unnecessary (for both teams) getaway game with Ricky Romero starting for Toronto and James Shields twirling for Tampa Bay.

This is our first series against the Rays this season and it would be really nice (and quite important) to get at least two wins against an AL East Divisional opponent. It won't be easy, but this team is capable of playing with anyone and we should be able to get off to a good start with Doc going Monday night.

29 June

Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23, 1.465)

The 26 year-old Niemann is an huge (6'9", 280 lb.) righty who Baseball America ranked as the 99th best prospect in baseball before the 2008 season. Niemann has performed admirably for the Rays this season, pitching to a 4.23 ERA through 72 1/3 innings over 14 starts, but has struck out just 44 (5.4 K/9) while walking 33 (4.0 BB/9), a ratio that is probably not going to be sustainable for him going forward. Still, his .288 BABIP and 72.9% strand-rate are not incredibly out-of-line with league norms, so if he can keep his HR-rate as low as it is (just 0.98 HR/9), he can probably stay in the majors. Niemann averages just over five innings per start.

In his 14 starts this season, Niemann has PQSed 1, 3, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 3, 5, 0, 5, 0, 2 and 0 for the unimpressive mean of 1.8 and Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 14% and an astronomical 50%.

Niemann's exhibited reverse platoon splits thus far, actually being hit harder by righties (.287 / .352 / .481; 1.91 K/BB) than lefties (.252 / .351 / .364; 1.05 K/BB), but his walk-rate vs. lefties is much higher and his slugging percentage is only lower because he's yielded one homerun (vs. seven HR to righties). He has given up 11 doubles (vs. just four to righties), however, so if some of those doubles turn into homers, we'll see very different platoon slugging numbers. In the minors, Niemann exhibited moderate platoon splits and was somewhat tougher against righties, as would be expected.

Niemann is primarily a fastball pitcher, but has a pretty diverse arsenal. He throws both the two-seamer and the four-seamer and can get the latter up around 94 mph at times. His curveball is nothing special, but his slider has some nice movement and could be quite frustrating for us if he is able to locate it well.

30 June

Matt Garza (5-5, 3.61, 1.161 WHIP)

Garza was a real thorn in the Jays' side last season, going 3-2 against them in five starts but with an ERA of 0.47 over 38 innings and limiting them to a 465 OPS. No, I'm not terribly excited to be seeing him on Tuesday, either. Garza was acquired from the Twins in the Delmon Young trade, which also opened up centrefield for the long-term for B.J. Upton. After coming up at just 22 in 2006, Garza's been nothing short of very good at the major league level, where he's maintained a strikeout-rate of 6.9 K/9 and walk-rate of 3.2 BB/9 (2.15 K/BB) since 2007. So far this season, Garza's pitched 97 1/3 innings over 15 starts, struck out 85 (8.2 K/9) and walked 39 (3.8 BB/9). There is some hope for us, though, as he may not be able to overcome his high walk-rate forever because his strand-rate is quite high at 78.8%.

Over his first 15 starts, Garza has PQSed 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 2, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 2, 2, 2 and 5 for a mean of 3.5 and quite-excellent Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 53% and 0%. Those dominance/disaster rates are pretty sick. And he hasn't even faced us yet.

Garza sticks mainly to his four-seamer and a nice hard sinker but he mixes a change in against lefties as well. He's had even more success this season with his slider, which comes in pretty hard as well. He also throws a big nose-to-toes curve.

1 July

James Shields (6-5, 3.41, 1.283 WHIP)

Shields is another pitcher who has been nothing but solid since coming up to the majors in 2006 with a career ERA of 3.87 and WHIP of 1.213. A control specialist, since 2007 Shields's walk-rates have been quite Doc-like, at 1.6, 1.8 and 2.0 BB/9, while his strikeout-rates have been 8.1, 7.0 and 6.5 K/9. The increasing walk-rates, coupled with decreasing strikeout-rates, could spell trouble for Shields, but his ratio is still quite good and even if his strikeout-rate stays at just 6.5 K/9, he should be fine if he continues to limit his walks as well as he has. He's pitched 108 1/3 innings over 16 starts so far this season. As his peripherals suggest, his success so far has been quite real.

After 16 starts, his PQS log reads 0, 4, 3, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 4 and 4, with a mean of 3.6. His dominance-rate is an excellent 63% and he's only had one disaster outing, for a rate of 6%. Pitchers who don't walk many generally aren't doing you many favours, so the Jays will have to earn any runs they're going to score off of Shields.

Like most control-artists, Shields is a change-up pitcher and, as is typical of such, exhibits reverse platoon splits this season, limiting lefties (.266 / .307 / .410; 3.23 K/BB) even better than righties (.285 / .320 / .472; 3.40 K/BB). Over his career, on the other hand, he's been a bit better against righties (.268 / .309 / .433; 4.40 K/BB) than lefties (.255 / .302 / .417; 3.35 K/BB). Either way, the platoon advantage probably won't be much help.

As previously mentioned, Shields uses his 90 mph four-seamer mainly to set up his change, a great pitch which breaks down relative to his fastball. Sources disagree as to whether Shields throws a cutter or a slider, but whatever it is, the pitch is pretty effective. He also throws a decent curve and a two-seamer. Shields is similar to Shaun Marcum in that he has a great change, but can throw any pitch in any count, allowing him to strike batters out, even though he does not have an overpowering fastball or jelly-knee-inducing breaking pitches.

We're Seeing Other People (At Least, That's What We Said We Are Doing): Next Series Pitchers Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

jessef — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:21:46 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Hopefully we'll see this in the third or fourth inning on Friday night. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Well, we didn't pull off the sweep of the Reds, but can't complain too much about taking two of three, especially when the the third game was as close as it was after the disastrous way it started. We may not have won, but we certainly didn't roll over and die. Nonetheless, the winning streak ends at three. Next up, the Phillies come to Toronto for the weekend, hopefully we can sweep them like we did down in Citizens Bank Park earlier this month. On Friday night, the Jays send Ricky Romero to the mound to try and repeat his seven inning, nine strikeout, three run performance from the 16th. The Phils counter with their ace, Cole Hamels, who kept the Jays in check reasonably well through six innings, yielding just two runs and striking out six. On Saturday afternoon, Brad Mills makes his second start for the Jays and looks to improve on his dismal performance last time out, when he walked four and gave up two homeruns over 3 2/3 innings. J.A. Happ (or J. Happ, or whatever he calls himself now) pitches for the Phillies. The series closes when Brian Tallet looks like a spring chicken opposite Jamie Moyer on Sunday afternoon. No real reason the Jays can't get back in business this weekend, particularly if Romero gets them off to a strong start and they can tag Hamels for a few on Friday night. Hopefully the lefty-killers can get some nice at-bats this weekend.

26 June

Cole Hamels (4-3, 4.24, 1.362 WHIP)

We've already covered Cole Hamels here and not very long ago, so I will just update you on what he did 21 June against the Orioles. The hard-luck losing Hamels pitched 8 innings and allowed nine baserunners (only two doubles and no walks) while striking out 10 and giving up two runs. I don't mind if he limits our offence like this if it means that he's the hard-luck loser again, but I'd rather tag him a little harder and give RickRo a little more breathing room.

27 June

J. Happ (4-0, 3.47, 1.333 WHIP)

As long as I know, the 26 year-old Happ has decided that he prefers just going by J. Happ, but he used to be known as J. A. Happ. Maybe it will end up being a good-luck charm, it certainly hasn't hurt his luck so far. The 6'6" southpaw has been quite successful this season, in spite of less-than-impressive peripheral numbers. Happ has served as a bit of a swingman in the earlygoing this season, having started six games and serving as a reliever in 12. Over 57 innings, he's struck out 41 (6.5 K/9) but walked 28 (4.4 BB/9) and allowed 8 HR (1.27 HR/9). That high walk-rate is responsible for his FIP of 5.09, obviously much higher than his ERA. He's been helped not only by a very low BABIP of .250 (his already-low Line Drive rate of 16.5% should support one in the .280 or so range), but also an unreal strand-rate of 84%. That strand-rate should come down considerably (hopefully on Saturday), and Happ's ERA will rise in response. Happ made his first start this season on 23 May and since then his ERA has been a bit higher (4.08) and his K/BB rate has been considerably worse (24 K vs. 19 BB).

Because Happ did not enter the rotation until late May, his PQS log is quite short, but reads 5, 3, 4, 1, 0 and 3 for a mean of 2.7 and Dominance-/Disaster-Rates of 33% each. He's hit a bit of a bump in the road recently (happily, the 5 was against the Yankees!), so hopefully he hasn't gotten out of that rut.

Happ has not had much experience at the major league level, but throughout he's been reasonably effective against lefties (.227 / .295 / .391; 2.27 K/BB) , but has had less success against righties (.248 / .345 / .415; 1.42 K/BB). He gets himself into trouble with his high walk-rate, but he's generally been able to weasel out of it, thanks largely in part to a very low career BABIP of .262. Throughout the minors, Happ was actually better at getting righties out, though that must be in part affected by his terrible luck on balls put in play by lefties (.342 BABIP), as his K/BB ratios were a bit better against lefties.

Happ is mainly a four-seam fastball pitcher. His fastball clocks in somewhere between the high 80's and low 90's, but it has quite a bit of rise to it and some nice lateral movement as well. He has less success with his change, which is nothing special. He also throws a slider that we'll see him try to backdoor against righties as an out-pitch.

28 June

Jamie Moyer (5-6, 5.97, 1.52)

Moyer, like Hamels, was covered for the last series. We hit him quite well last time (six runs in six innings), so hopefully we can do the same thing this time around. In his last start he kept the Rays at bay over six innings, yielding just one run and striking out four (though he did walk three batters and give up three doubles).

Today's post title, by the way, comes courtesy of Belle and Sebastian.

Red Eyes on Orange Horizons: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Cincinnati Reds

jessef — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:49:23 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Bronson Arroyo auditions for a role in Kung-Fu Hustle II, the sequel to Stephen Chow's 2004 masterpiece. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

After a tough luck series in which we dropped two out of three (both in extra innings), we continue interleague play at home in a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds. If we can take this series we should be back in business this weekend, when Philly tries for revenge on us at Skydome. The series opens tomorrow night, when Brian Tallet starts on short rest against Reds ~~pinch hitter~~ starter Micah Owings. On Wednesday and Thursday nights, the Jays send Scott Richmond (on an extra day's rest because of his unsuccessful relief appearance on Saturday) and Brett Cecil out, while the Reds counter with Br~~and~~onson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, respectively. It will be important to get off to a good start tomorrow night, because Arroyo and Cueto are both capable of shutdown performances.

23 June

Micah Owings (4-7, 4.50, 1.528 WHIP)

The Tulane alumnus is probably as well known for his hitting prowess (a lifetime .305 / .337 / .552, with 7 HR in 166 plate appearances) as for his pitching ability. And, although we're playing in an AL park, we might see him bat. It would not necessarily be a bad idea if the Reds use their DH to hit for SS Alex Gonzalez (no, not that one), 3B Adam Rosales or CF Wily Taveras. Micah Owings is probably a better hitter than any of the three, although Taveras does add quite a bit of speed. While his batting line is impressive, the strikeout-rate of 5.4 K/9 and walk-rate of 4.3 BB/9 that he's posted thus far are less impressive. For a pitcher with such undesirable peripherals, though, his strand-rate of 73% is quite good, though that's likely to come down soon. Owings is also a fly-ball pitcher with less than a 40% ground-ball rate, which could bode quite well for a rested Jays offence tomorrow night.

So far this season, Owings has PQSed 1, 0, 5, 1, 4, 4, 3, 0, 2, 2, 5, 3 and 3, for an unimpressive PQS-mean of 2.5 and Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 31% and 23%, respectively. While I personally think Owings is fun to watch (though this is more for his hitting than his pitching), it would not shock me terribly if the Jays added to that disaster-rate.

The righthanded Owings has been hit hard by lefties (.273 / .351 / .456; 1.49 K/BB) but has kept righties mostly in check (.240 / .322 / .391; 2.39 K/BB) throughout his career. So far this season, he has done the same, but has managed to reduce his gopher balls to lefties (just 2 HR in 146 plate appearances). That has, of course, come with a K/BB-rate of 1.0, though, so he may just be trying to keep the ball off the plate against power-hitting lefties.

Owings is a three-pitch pitcher whose arsenal features average fastball in the high-80's and a decent change. He also throws a slider, but his fastball is probably his best pitch. When your best pitch is a fastball that can just touch 90 mph, you're probably in trouble. Don't be surprised if Owings becomes an outfielder in the next few years.

24 June

Bronson Arroyo (8-5, 5.16, 1.393 WHIP)

The ultra-sensitive Arroyo (does anyone else remember how three or four years ago FOX showed him play that Oasis song seemingly every Saturday?) has put together a pretty solid resume outside of his britpop-shredding, with 79 career wins and 4.36 career ERA (106 ERA+, two points higher than Catfish Hunter's!). Arroyo could be in the decline phase of his career, however, as his strikeout-rate has declined to just 4.9 K/9 (48 K in 89 IP vs. 6.2 K/9 career). Combine that with a walk-rate higher than he's ever had since he was a fulltime starter (3.3 BB/9 in 2009 vs. 2.8 BB/9 career) and Arroyo is either starting slow, having a bad year or could be cashing in his chips soon. Fortunately for him, he's guaranteed $11 M in 2010. The Jays have hit Arroyo hard (5.84 career ERA in 10 starts), so hopefully that trend continues Wednesday night.

Arroyo's PQSed 4, 3, 2, 1, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1 and 4 this season for a mean of 2.6 and Dominance- and Disaster-rates of 21% each. As you might expect from a pitcher with a 5.47 FIP, those numbers are not good, but he has worked pretty deep in some games, going at least seven innings seven times, including three times when he went at least eight.

Like Owings, Arroyo has been hit hard by lefties (.288 / .352 / .477; 1.44 K/BB), but has been pretty good against righties (.249 / .307 / .398; 3.03 K/BB) throughout his career. Lefties have hit him even harder this season to the tune of an 844 OPS and righties have done pretty well, too (758 OPS), in spite of just a .243 BABIP.

Arroyo's fastball, which was never very good, has been even worse as he turned over the wrong side of 30. He does use the two-seamer to generate grounders, but he is quite lucky if he can touch 90 with it, so he uses it as sparingly as possible. He throws a change that comes in around the speed of a crawl that he uses against lefties when he's locating it well. His best pitches, though, are his curve and his slider, which can be relatively deceptive coming out of his ridiculous toe-pointing delivery.

25 June

Johnny Cueto (6-4, 2.55, 1.124 WHIP)

The 23 year-old righty from the Dominican Republic has a full year of major league experience under his belt now and he's been markedly better than he was last season. His peripherals this season (6.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9) are solid, but certainly do not support his very tidy 2.55 ERA. Look for that to rise closer to his still-decent FIP of 4.18 as the season progresses. He has kept hitters from making good contact thus far, as they have just a 16.5% linedrive-rate against him. Nonetheless, his .256 BABIP will likely increase, even if he can keep them from hitting the ball solidly as well as he has so far. His strand-rate will come down from its incredibly high 81% before the season is over, which will also contribute to a rise in ERA.

In his 14 starts so far, Cueto has PQSed 4, 0, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4 and 0 for a very nice mean of 3.3 and an excellent Dominance-rate of 57% against a Disaster-rate of just 14%.

So far, Cueto's been about equally effective against both lefties (.238 / .333 / .430; 1.73 K/BB) and righties (.265 / .318 / .443; 3.64 K/BB), but as those K/BB ratios sugges, this has been in large part due to a difference in BABIP of .305 vs. righties as opposed to a much tidier .265 vs. lefties. Lefties produced an higher BABIP than righties (.323 vs. .291) against him in the minors, so we could just be seeing an artifact of a small sample size so far in the majors.

Cueto, like Owings, is a three-pitch pitcher, but he has an above-average fastball (low-90's and with some nice downward movement to generate grounders) and a very good slider. His change is nothing special but he does use it to keep lefties from getting too comfortable and locking in on his fastball. Look for him to back-door his slider against them with two strikes, as well.

No Heart Could Be As Sad As Mine, Ain't Nobody's Fault But Mine: GameThread for Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, 21 June 2009, 1:35 PM EDT

jessef — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:40:04 -0000

So the Jays look to avoid the sweep tonight, I don't really want to talk about the first two games. As Carlos Delgado said upon being traded to the New York Mets, "It's not about the past. It's about the present and the future."

Let's get back to our winning ways this afternoon. Lyle's still in the 7 slot and Rolen is still batting cleanup. After scoring a total of four runs in our last 21 innings, a strong performance from Ricky Romero won't guarantee anything, but it sure wouldn't hurt either.

Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

06/21/09 1:35 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays	Washington Nationals
Marco Scutaro - SS	Cristian Guzman - SS
Aaron Hill - 2B	Nick Johnson - 1B
Vernon Wells - CF	Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
Scott Rolen - 3B	Adam Dunn - LF
Adam Lind - LF	Austin Kearns - RF
Alex Rios - RF	Alberto Gonzalez - 2B
Lyle Overbay - 1B	Willie Harris - CF
Rod Barajas - C	Josh Bard - C
Ricky Romero - P	Shairon Martis - P

After Many Glasses of Work, I Get Paid: GameThread for Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, 20 June 2009, 7:05 PM EDT

jessef — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 22:24:54 -0000

Well, last night sucked, but let's hope tonight goes a bit better. Brett Cecil makes his return to the major league club, while the Nats send Ross Detwiler to the mound. There's nothing you can do about some losses, but hopefully we can bounce back tonight with a win and take the series tomorrow. Millar starts tonight for Overbay against the lefty and Raul Chavez spells Rod Barajas.

Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

06/20/09 7:05 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays	Washington Nationals
Marco Scutaro - SS	Cristian Guzman - SS
Aaron Hill - 2B	Nick Johnson - 1B
Vernon Wells - CF	Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
Scott Rolen - 3B	Adam Dunn - LF
Adam Lind - LF	Elijah Dukes - RF
Alex Rios - RF	Alberto Gonzalez - 2B
Kevin Millar - 1B	Willie Harris - CF
Raul Chavez - C	Wil Nieves - C
Brett Cecil - P	Ross Detwiler - P

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brett Cecil	2-1	4.38	1.38	18	6

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ross Detwiler	0-3	5.23	1.53	23	14

Tonight's thread title comes courtesy of They Might Be Giants.

I Gotta, Gotta, Gotta, Gotta Move On: GameThread for Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, 19 June 2009 7:05 PM EDT

jessef — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 22:38:13 -0000

Hey all, the Jays look to make it four in a row tonight when they make the short trip from Philadelphia to Washington to take on the Nationals. Washington continues to be first in war and first in peace but, unlike the Senators, the Nats are last in the National League (the Senators always played in the American). Nonetheless, things might not be so easy for the Jays as they look to do battle with up-and-comer Jordan Zimmermann, tonight's starter who has been quite good (though at times unlucky) so far this season. We'll need to make sure we see the bullpen early because Zimmermann has had some trouble going deep into ballgames, but has been quite good as long as he's been in.

There was quite a bit of activity on the site this afternoon, Tom took a bit more detailed of a look at Marco Scutaro's walk-double yesterday, Hugo highlighted another unfortunate setback for Dustin McGowan (get well soon, No Run-DMc!) and Ed from Federal Baseball gave us a little preview as to what to expect to see this weekend from the Nats. I also made a little post on the Nationals starters we'll be seeing, so for a little more information regarding Zimmermann, you're welcome to take a look.

Scott Rolen continues to hit cleanup and Lyle Overbay continues to hit in front of Big Rod and the pitcher's slot (if Tallet bats three times with the bases loaded, I'm going to be very annoyed). Speaking of Tallet, he's looking to rebound from his atrocious start against the Marlins last Sunday.

Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

06/19/09 7:05 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays	Washington Nationals
Marco Scutaro - SS	Cristian Guzman - SS
Aaron Hill - 2B	Nick Johnson - 1B
Vernon Wells - CF	Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
Scott Rolen - 3B	Adam Dunn - LF
Adam Lind - LF	Elijah Dukes - RF
Alex Rios - RF	Josh Bard - C
Lyle Overbay - 1B	Willie Harris - CF
Rod Barajas - C	Anderson Hernandez - 2B
Brian Tallet - P	Jordan Zimmermann - P

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brian Tallet	4-4	4.87	1.29	58	35

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jordan Zimmermann	2-3	5.37	1.35	60	16

Let's get this series started off right, boys!

Special thanks to Modest Mouse's "Never Ending Math Equation" which has now been used for post titles an unprecedented (at least as far as I know) three times today.

I'm the Same as I Was When I Was Six Years Old: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Washington Nationals

jessef — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:10:55 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Jordan Zimmermann shows off the high socks. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

Talk about bouncing back! After getting swept at home against the Florida Marlins, the Jays managed to bounce back strongly in Philadelphia, braving the rain and sweeping the interleague rival Phillies in the three game set, in spite of Brad Mills's disappointing debut yesterday afternoon, behind strong performances from Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond and just enough late-game hitting. The team has now won seven of its last 11 games and looks poised to improve on that against the lowly Nationals this weekend, 19 - 21 June, in Washington, D.C.

The series opens tonight at 7 pm Eastern Daylight Time. The Jays turn to Brian Tallet, who looks to bounce back from his disastrous performance on Sunday, and the Nationals will give the ball to Jordan "The Nationals Other" Zimmermann, an up-and-coming righthanded pitching prospect who just happens to share his last name (though with a different spelling) with Ryan Zimmerman. Maryland native Brett Cecil makes his return to the Big League club (hopefully triumphantly) on Saturday evening, and the Nationals counter with southpaw Ross Detwiler. The series closes on Sunday, when Ricky Romero will hopefully be rewarded with a win after two good starts with nothing to show for them and the Nationals send out Shairon Martis, another up-and-coming righty. The Jays do manage to avoid Jon Lannan, who has held offenses at bay (3.38 ERA this season) despite his striking out just 42 in over 80 innings. After sweeping the Phils, hopefully we can keep things rolling against the worst team in all of baseball.

Hugo stole my thunder when he titled his post after Modest Mouse's "Never Ending Math Equation" but I am leaving it as is to honor the trifecta of 22 and 23 year-old starters the Nationals send to the hill this weekend.

19 June

Jordan Zimmermann (2-3, 5.37, 1.351 WHIP)

This past February, Baseball America ranked Zimmermann as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball, so we are not talking about a nobody here, but at just 23 and with only a year and half (and less than 200 innings pitched) in the minors, the 2007 draftee could probably use a bit more seasoning. However, since the Nationals are the Nationals, they don't really have anyone else to turn to and Zimmermann entered the rotation in 2009. Although his record, ERA and WHIP indicate a below-average pitcher, Zimmermann's peripherals are strong, which bodes well for him going forward. In 57 innings over 10 starts, Zimmermann has struck out 60 (9.7 K/9) and walked just 16 (2.6 BB/9), while allowing 8 HR (1.29 HR/9). Nationals Park is quite spacious, which should suppress his HR-rate, but an astounding 20% of flyballs hit against Zimmermann have gone for homers. Zimmermann has also had some bad luck with balls in play, as his BABIP of .349 shows (though hitters have hit him pretty hard, when they've made contact, as his 25% line-drive rate suggests). As his HR/flyball and BABIP come back down a bit, Zimmermann's ERA should more closely resemble his very tidy 3.87 FIP or even tidier 3.23 xFIP.

In his 10 starts thus far, Zimmermann has PQSed 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 5 and 4, for a very nice mean of 3.7 and a 60% Dominance-rate against no Disaster starts. However, this highlights one of the shortcomings of PQS -- Zimmermann has managed to pitch more than six innings just once so far. Pitching six innings, as Zimmermann has done four times, optimizes PQS because it allows for a HR-rate of 1.5 HR/9 and a strikeout-rate of just 6 K/9. That being said, as his peripherals suggest, Zimmermann's been quite good this year, though with the Nationals bullpen he needs to get deeper into games if he wants to see his win total climb.

So far Zimmermann's been very tough on righthanded batters, (.263 / .314 / .484; 5.80 K/BB), whose OBP is inflated by their .345 BABIP. He's had more trouble with lefties, losing them to walks much more frequently (.290 / .350 / .452; 2.80 K/BB), but his solid strikeout-rate (28 Ks in 138 Plate Appearances) suggests that he isn't afraid to try to make his pitches against them. His performance with regard to platoon split at the major league level is consistent with his minor league performance as well.

Zimmermann relies heavily on a good, hard two-seamer in the low-90's, which he uses to generate grounders. He occasionally mixes in a change that breaks away from lefties to keep both lefties and righties off-balance. He also throws a tight slider with good movement that he uses to great effect against righties and a big curve that also serves as a change-of-pace.

20 June

Ross Detwiler (0-3, 5.23, 1.531 WHIP)

The big lefty (6' 5") was the sixth overall pick of the 2007 draft and is just 23 years old, but hasn't quite met the Nationals expectations yet. Detwiler's pitched 32 2/3 innings over six starts so far and his peripherals have not been terribly impressive, striking out 23 (6.0 K/9) and walking 14 (3.7 BB/9). He has done an excellent job keeping hitters in the ballpark (just 0.52 HR/9) but that has probably been influenced by good luck on fly balls (just 6.2% of flies have left the park, a rate that is probably unsustainable). Obviously, at just 23, he still has plenty of time to improve and he's made quite a jump to pitching in the majors after just 29 innings at AA this season, following a solid season in high-A ball in 2008.

In his six starts so far, Detwiler has PQSed 4, 4, 0, 3, 5 and 3 for a mean of 3.17 and a Dominance-rate of 50% vs. a Disaster-rate of 17%. However, Detwiler, like Zimmermann, has not pitched very deep into games, so his PQS-scoring is probably a bit inflated, particularly when you include his abnormally low homerun-rate.

Detwiler has faced righty-heavy lineups so far, and they have hit him hard (.301 / .368 / .456; 1.64 K/BB), thanks in part to a .349 BABIP. He's limited the damage against lefties (.172 / .273 / .241; 1.67 K/BB), but a .208 BABIP suggests that his success against them is luck-driven (just 33 Plate Appearances). Luck-driven or not, Detwiler has yielded just two extra-base hits (both doubles) against lefties, so it does not look like they hit him all that hard. Detwiler did not have much of a platoon advantage against lefties in the minors, but his minor league sample size is quite small as well.

He throws a four-seamer in the mid-to-low 90's and a two-seamer just a few clicks slower. He's still working heavily on his change-up, which he's had trouble locating thus far. He also throws a true curve (not a slurve-type pitch). With such a limited arsenal, the Jays should be able to sit fastball against him, but you never know.

21 June

Shairon Martis (5-1, 4.76, 1.361 WHIP)

The Curacao native and Netherlands WBC team member has managed a great record with the worst team in baseball, in spite of an ERA of 4.76 and a K/BB-ratio of 0.85. Over 75 2/3 innings and 13 starts, Martis has struck out just 29 (3.4 K/9) and walked 34 (4.0 BB/9), which should be a recipe for disaster, but he has managed to escape thanks to a low homerun/flyball-rate (8.7%) and an unsustainably low 67.5% strand-rate, as well as a quite-low .245 BABIP. Translation? Martis is primed to come back down to Earth big-time, let's just hope it's on Sunday and not later on.

The Netherlands national has PQSed 0, 3, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 0, 2, 3 and 3 so far, for a mean of 2.31, a Dominance-rate of just 8% and a Disaster-rate of 16%. The Disaster-Rate is not too bad, but unless Martis can strike out some batters (particularly in the NL, where he faces a pitcher each time through the lineup), he won't last too long. He hasn't struck out more than two batters in a game since 8 May, so hopefully that trend continues. After being promoted to AAA last season, Martis's K-rate jumped to 9.1 K/9 from 6.9 K/9 at AA, so the league might have needed a bit of time to catch up to him.

The 22 year-old Martis has been shelled by lefthanded batters (.312 / .397 / .532; 0.72 K/BB), so look for Lyle Overbay to have a big day against him. He has kept righties to a miniscule line (.146 / .233 / .299; 1.82 K/BB), but a .148 BABIP is probably indicative of Lady Luck smiling upon him more often than not. BABIP differences notwithstanding, Martis's platoon splits in the majors have been indicative of his minor league record.

Martis has a pretty decent fastball, which he can throws in the low-90s, but he may rely on his changeup too much, especially if he has trouble locating it. He throws a pretty good, tight slider and mixes a curve in sometimes, but he has had a lot of trouble locating the slider. Unless his fastball starts moving a little more and he starts locating his other pitches better, Martis should be back in the minors soon (though his W-L record, coupled with the Nationals' perennial futility, will probably keep him up in the bigs longer than is necessarily good for his development).