http://www.sbnation.com/users/jgraham Posts made by jgraham on SB Nation http://www.talkingchop.com/2008/5/5/472967/optimal-lineup jgraham Mon, 05 May 2008 16:12:10 -0000 <p>Bobby Cox seems to be changing the lineup pretty often.&nbsp; I know a lot of that has to do with injuries, but I started to wonder which lineup would give the Braves the best chance to win.</p> <p>Thankfully there are some brilliant people at <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com">Baseball Musings</a> to help me out with just that.&nbsp; They have a lineup analysis tool that allows you to look at a number of possible lineups and the expected runs/game based on the starters' OBP and SLG.&nbsp; I entered several variations - current stats, three-year performance, etc. - and came to some interesting conclusions, which you will see below.</p> <p>One point, however, repeated itself in every test: the pitcher needs to bat 8th.&nbsp; I started by putting the OBP and SLG at .200 (appr. Tim Hudson's numbers) but then changed the OBP to .180 and the SLG to .150 - no shift in the lineup.&nbsp; Maybe Tony LaRussa isn't as crazy as we all thought.&nbsp; On to the lineups...</p> <p><b>Current Stats w/o Platoon</b></p> <p>Escobar<br />Jones<br />Teixeira<br />McCann<br />Kotsay<br />Francoeur<br />Johnson<br />Pitcher<br />Blanco</p> <p>This lineup will score 5.761 runs/game.&nbsp; That's 933 runs for an entire season, which would be phenomenal.&nbsp; Of course, that requires Chipper to remain the best hitter, oh, ever.&nbsp; Maybe we should take a more realistic approach...</p> <p><b>Three-Year Stats w/o Platoon</b></p> <p>Escobar<br />Jones<br />Johnson<br />Teixeira<br />Diaz<br />Francoeur<br />McCann<br />Pitcher<br />Kotsay</p> <p>This lineup only scores 5.536 runs/game.&nbsp; Also, as you've probably noticed, I threw Diaz back in there only because Blanco's a rookie and didn't think it was fair to balance 56 PAs against the thousands for everyone else.</p> <p>I could keep going, but the possibilities are endless.&nbsp; Current stats against lefties, three-year stats in May, on and on and on.&nbsp; What do you think?&nbsp; Vote below and tell me why in the comments.</p> <fieldset class="poll-box"> <legend>Poll</legend> <h5 class="poll-title">Should Bobby Cox bat the pitcher 8th?</h5> <div id="poll_container_22843_714661910"> <form action="/polls/vote/22843?container_id=poll_container_22843_714661910" method="post" onsubmit="new Ajax.Request('/polls/vote/22843?container_id=poll_container_22843_714661910', {asynchronous:true, evalScripts:true, parameters:Form.serialize(this)}); return false;"> <ul class="poll-list clearfix"> <li class="clearfix"><span class="radio"><input id="poll_option_113882" name="poll_option" type="radio" value="113882" /></span> <span class="option">Yes</span></li> <li class="clearfix"><span class="radio"><input id="poll_option_113883" name="poll_option" type="radio" value="113883" /></span> <span class="option">No</span></li> </ul> <p class="poll-vote-submit"><input class="button" name="commit" type="submit" value="Vote!" /> &nbsp; 27 votes | <a href="#" onclick="new Ajax.Request('/polls/results/22843?container_id=poll_container_22843_714661910', {asynchronous:true, evalScripts:true}); return false;">Results</a></p> </form> </div> </fieldset>