Optimal Lineup

jgraham — Mon, 05 May 2008 16:12:10 -0000

Bobby Cox seems to be changing the lineup pretty often. I know a lot of that has to do with injuries, but I started to wonder which lineup would give the Braves the best chance to win.

Thankfully there are some brilliant people at Baseball Musings to help me out with just that. They have a lineup analysis tool that allows you to look at a number of possible lineups and the expected runs/game based on the starters' OBP and SLG. I entered several variations - current stats, three-year performance, etc. - and came to some interesting conclusions, which you will see below.

One point, however, repeated itself in every test: the pitcher needs to bat 8th. I started by putting the OBP and SLG at .200 (appr. Tim Hudson's numbers) but then changed the OBP to .180 and the SLG to .150 - no shift in the lineup. Maybe Tony LaRussa isn't as crazy as we all thought. On to the lineups...

Current Stats w/o Platoon

Escobar
Jones
Teixeira
McCann
Kotsay
Francoeur
Johnson
Pitcher
Blanco

This lineup will score 5.761 runs/game. That's 933 runs for an entire season, which would be phenomenal. Of course, that requires Chipper to remain the best hitter, oh, ever. Maybe we should take a more realistic approach...

Three-Year Stats w/o Platoon

Escobar
Jones
Johnson
Teixeira
Diaz
Francoeur
McCann
Pitcher
Kotsay

This lineup only scores 5.536 runs/game. Also, as you've probably noticed, I threw Diaz back in there only because Blanco's a rookie and didn't think it was fair to balance 56 PAs against the thousands for everyone else.

I could keep going, but the possibilities are endless. Current stats against lefties, three-year stats in May, on and on and on. What do you think? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

Poll

Should Bobby Cox bat the pitcher 8th?

Yes

7 votes

No

20 votes

27 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation User Blog: jgraham

Optimal Lineup

Should Bobby Cox bat the pitcher 8th?

Yes

No