jianfu
May 27, 2008 Feb 13, 2012 104 2681
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Kyrie Irving is not the Rookie of the Year
Wages of Wins chimes in on the top rookies thus far.
Timberwolves: The Minnesota Timberwolves are a two guard away from being very good. They know it. The league knows it and Timberwolves’ fans have known it all season.
The Wolves have a number of cashable parts. The problem is there does not seem to be a lot of interest in Wes Johnson, Wayne Ellington or Luke Ridnour – especially not for a starting caliber two guard.
Sources close to the situation say there are few teams that would do a deal for rookie Derrick Williams but at this point the Wolves seem unwilling to move him or entertain talks involving him.
The parts the Wolves would cash don’t seem to be drawing much, so while the Wolves understand they need to upgrade, they are not eager to make a bad deal, but expect them to be active in the march up to the deadline. If a starter at the two spot shakes loose, they seem eager and willing to pull the trigger.
Keep an eye on Houston’s Courtney Lee… Wolves’ coach Rick Adelman knows him and it seems he is available from the Rockets. If the price comes down, don’t be surprised to see a deal.
Courtney is no Kevin Martin, but at this point the Wolves are buyers in a sellers’ market place.
Hoopsworld.com, FWIW...
Discussions continue between the Blazers and Nicolas Batum's agent, Bouna Ndiaye, on an extension, but deal not close, sources say.
23 Jan
I apologize if it's a little weird to post whispers about a non-Wolves player, but...
Knock knock!
Love finally has a pair of enticing reasons to stay in Minnesota
A piece from SI's Lee Jenkins on the Love/Rubio/Adelman foundation.
Lost amid all the Love contract talk...the Wolves exercise 2012-13 options on Wes and Wayne any day now
Lakers to Pursue a Trade for Kevin Love?
Get your latest annoying, unsourced Kevin Love trade rumors here!
This time: Pau Gasol and fool's gold the Odom TE.
Washington Post on the NFL Version of Moneyball
Hint: Zygi Wilf and the Vikings don't play it...
Redemption, thy name is Sullivan
One name that is sticking out like a sore thumb at the top of the rankings in a "what are you doing there?" kind of way is John Sullivan (+7.5) of the Minnesota Vikings. In two seasons since taking over from Matt Birk in Minnesota Sullivan has ranked 28th (in 2009) and 26th (in 2010). His poor play as a run blocker, along with most of the rest of the offensive line has been a thorn in the side of the Vikings. The poor play of Sullivan and his fellow linemen has limited the impact Adrian Peterson has been able to have the last two seasons, which makes what he has achieved all the more impressive. This season however, Sullivan has very quietly raised his game and at the midway point of 2011, Sullivan is our third-ranked run blocking center.
In years past, Sullivan has struggled even against the worst defensive tackles in the league but this Sunday he showed the extent of his progress, claiming a season high +2.5 run-blocking grade against the Panthers’ subpar interior defensive line. The Vikings averaged 5.3 yards per carry on runs off his left hip and on 35 rushes off of his right hip this season the Vikings are averaging 7.9 yards per carry. Those sorts of numbers would have been unheard of around Sullivan in years past, and backup the notion that to this point Sullivan is a leading candidate for the most improved player in the league.
Hate to rain on everyone's "Suck for Luck" parade, but there is an under-the-radar storyline regarding the heralded Stanford quarterback that will soon be out there.
Think all your team has to do is finish 1-15 to get Andrew Luck? It might not be that easy. The presence of Luck's father, Oliver, is something league executives will be watching closely as we get closer to April. This well could be Eli Manning in 2004, or John Elway in 1983, if the Stanford quarterback's camp doesn't like the situation the highest picking team presents.
"Absolutely. I've heard that for the last two years," said one college scout, who's on the road and paid to ferret this stuff out. "There's no question that it could be a Manning thing all over again."
The Manning comparison, of course, arises because Archie Manning drove the bus on youngest son Eli forcing a trade from San Diego to New York. And don't get this twisted -- this isn't a criticism of Luck or his father, who is also the athletics director at West Virginia. They have the leverage, the next 10-15 years of Luck's life could be in the balance, and so it makes sense to use that power to find the right spot.
It's just that, based on the way Oliver and Andrew Luck have carefully orchestrated their decisions in the past, teams are expecting this circumstance to arise if the wrong team is sitting at No. 1.
"We talked about this before (Luck's sophomore) season started," said the scout. "Some people know the dad well, and the hands-on approach he has. In Andrew's defense, he seems pretty in control of everything. So I could see it being a mutual decision. And if he can control it, why play behind a (crappy) offensive line, or in a bad situation? He's gonna have that control. If he doesn't like the team there, all he has to do is voice that, and there'll be teams looking to trade up.
"The Luck camp has a ton of firepower here. More than anyone I can remember."
The Rise of the "Space Player"
If you enjoy great analysis on interesting football trends, I recommend visiting Chris Brown's smartfootball.com. He tends to focus more on the college game because there's more diversity of style and often more innovation on Saturdays, but I like his NFL stuff, as well.
Anyway, here's a piece he wrote for Grantland breaking down Darrren Sproles and how the Saints really have their finger on the pulse about how to best utilize players like him. "Space" players. It's a great read. But if you read it and wonder if Percy Harvin could have even more potential, or frustrated that the Vikings seem lagging behind the curve on a number of fronts, you're not alone.
Fran Tarkenton: Vikings Need to Play Christian Ponder
The franchise's signature signal caller speaks...
"Players know. Who's going to be our future? Who can we build with? Maybe it's Christian Ponder. We won't know until he plays in games how he reacts. We desperately need that for the immediate future of our franchise."
Is it McNabb?
by jianfu on Sep 30, 2011 2:35 PM EDT
on Daily Norseman
Obviously, the Vikings passing attack ain't exactly a symphony right now. They're currently 27th in net passing yards per attempt. But we don't need numbers to tell us that they not reminding us of 2009.
A lot of fans are ready to move on from McNabb. But how much of this stumbling start is his fault? MarkSP18 recently made note of McNabb's completion percentage being roughly his career average in a recent post, which reminded me of an old article from PFF that attempted to isolate which components of a quarterback's performance remain (relatively) stable when he switches teams. Here's some quick money quotes (skimming out the math):
What happens when a quarterback changes teams? Which performance stats remain most consistent, suggesting they are more the responsibility of the quarterback himself, and which are least consistent, suggesting that outside forces (such as teammates, game situation, and random luck) play a larger role?
***
It's pretty clear which performance category is least consistent from year to year and probably belongs to the individual quarterback the least. It's probably the one the general public uses to judge a quarterback the most--interceptions. You rarely hear after a game about how the receivers caused the interceptions, or the bad luck of it all, or the game context dictated the interceptions.
At the other end of the spectrum, two performance measures stand out at the top--completion percentage and sack rate. One of those, of course, is the one passer performance measure that is not currently included in the NFL's passer rating formula.
What are McNabb's career rates in these two areas?
Completion %: 58.9%
Sack rate: 7.1%
What are McNabb's rates thus far through this short season?
Completion %: 58%
Sack rate: 9%
Now, to be clear, 2011 has offered a minimal sample size, too little to even be relevant, actually. But, statistical legitimacy aside, McNabb's basically been who he's been thus far. He's taking a few more sacks, maybe, so maybe he's been holding the ball too long, or maybe the line's just that poor, or maybe that's just a fluke.
He's still absolutely included in the team's 1/15 on 3rd down in the second halves of games, among other things. But that sort of stuff has a tendency to even out a little bit (let's hope). And I haven't found his demeanor particularly inspiring.
But the larger point is, there probably isn't a quick fix to the passing game, unfortunately. They've probably been a little unlucky (although stuff like 1/15 might get cancelled out by turnovers, which they've been decent with thus far), and you could certainly argue they could use some better playcalling. But reality is, they're probably just outmanned right now. (How's THAT for an observation?)
Now, this isn't necessarily a pro-McNabb post or anything. I'm certainly not going to argue against seeing what Ponder or Webb can do at some point this season, particularly if they can't pull out of this nosedive. But, QB performances are often part of an environment. Whatever factors are contributing to this flat passing game might equally affect Ponder/Webb as well.
11 commentsOverall, looking at the entire database of teams from 2002-2010, there is no correlation between second-half decline in Weeks 1-3 and second-half decline in Weeks 4-17. (If you want to get technical, the correlation coefficient is .05 on offense, -.07 on defense, and .02 overall.) If we look only at the 40 most extreme teams, the correlation is slightly higher (.13). Still, most of this evidence suggests that the Vikings aren't going to have these kinds of second-half collapses all season. If they continue to play at the level they are playing at overall, they should be a .500 team the rest of the way. Unfortunately, they're starting in an 0-3 hole, but they're not going to end up in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes.
Best Moments of Part 1 of Bill Belichick: A Football Life
An early review by Shutdown Corner of the NFL Network documentary on Belichick. Anyone watch? I thought it was outstanding, but I always find Belichick interesting.
What Will the Vikings do with AP?
by jianfu on Sep 1, 2011 2:01 PM EDT
on Daily Norseman
No one can predict the future, but we love to try. With news coming down that the Titans and Chris Johnson have agreed to a $54-$56 million deal ($30 million in guarantees), it's natural to wonder if this might be a shoe-dropping-moment in whatever negotiations (if any) the Vikings have with Adrian Peterson.
Leaving aside what they should do (as that's been discussed around here a time or two), what do you think the Vikings will do with Peterson?
How Quarterbacks Age
Might get a bit technical, but here's an interesting study by Brian Burke on QB aging. (It also suggests, perhaps, that too many people are reading too much into Donovan McNabb's poor 2010 season.)
WAR Games with Bill Smith After the Santana Trade
We'll never know what coulda/shoulda/woulda happened if we could hit a RESET button somewhere and re-do the Santana trade offseason, but here's review, WAR-style, of the mess Billy Smith's made on a few fronts.
Football Outsiders Almanac Free Sample Chapter...
...just so happens FO's free peek to their annual this year is the Vikings chapter.
Curiously, they're predicting a decent year of 8 or 9 wins, thanks to a last-place schedule and some regression (in a good way) in third-down and red zone performances. It doesn't hurt that they also consider McNabb a good QB still.
On the negative side, they hit on all the concerns most fans know well (age, secondary, o-line, depth...), and they're not particularly enthusiastic about the future.
Childress opens up about Favre, Moss fiasco in Minnesota
Chilly speaks to NFL.com.
Wednesday: Donovan McNabb
Average: 3,305 ± 130 passing yards, 20 ± 1 TDs, 14 ± 1 INTs
Best-case scenario: 4,400 passing yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs
Worst-case scenario: 2,400 passing yards, 11 TDs, 23 INTsMcNabb was a quarterback we featured in last year's Wisdom of Crowds, and he ended up exceeding yardage expectations while underperforming in both touchdowns and interceptions. This season, the prognosticator's dilemma revolves around whether or not McNabb can parlay a better running game into better passing stats despite having a wide receiver corps of equal talent. After all, Percy Harvin may be Santana Moss's doppelganger, but Ryan Torain is no Adrian Peterson.
One clue that might help solve the mystery is that the Vikings replaced offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell with Bill Musgrave. In his last stint in the position, Musgrave coached a Jaguars offense that averaged 3,368 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. With Mike Shanahan last season, McNabb had prorated stats of 4,156 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. Put that together, and you have 3,762 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. That's pretty darn close to what our readers have to say.
Earlier today, when talking about the trade for Jeff Keppinger, GM Brian Sabean referred to "something bigger" that he was working to complete.
I can’t be sure he was referring to Twins outfielder Michael Cuddyer, but I’m told that the Giants recently expressed interest in him with an eye toward playing him at second base.
Cuddyer has played 13 games at second base this season and Giants scouts felt he was serviceable at the position. But the Twins had a steep asking price and so Sabean revisited the Astros because Bruce Bochy needed immediate help and he knew he could close the Keppinger deal with a phone call.
With Sabean still determined to upgrade the offense and "lengthen the lineup," I wouldn’t rule out the Giants revisiting Cuddyer in the next 10 days. Whether the Twins adjust the price is another matter.
An observation/opinion from Giants' beat writer Andrew Baggarly
Might the Lockout Affect David Kahn's Future?
by jianfu on Jul 1, 2011 2:18 PM EDT
on Canis Hoopus
We've been kicking around how the Wolves coaching situation is likely being influenced by Taylor's desire to see how the lockout unfolds, most recently in Andy G's tongue-in-cheek, Olive-Stone-like thread on the subject. My opinion, and it's just that, is that it's simply a matter of Papa Glen seeing how much the lockout bleeds out of Rambis' deal before he needs to cut a check.
Anyway, this leads me to consider the other partner-in-crime in 32-132: David Kahn. Because if I recall correctly, David Kahn was given a three-year-deal when he was hired in 2009. That would mean this coming season is his "contract year." What's weird, of course, is there might not be a season.
First, I need to concede I'm not quite sure if he's on a three-year deal. Because I've tried searching for it, and the best I can do is a TWolvesblog post pointing out that numerous Rambis-based news articles mention Kahn's three-year deal. So outside of that, I'm just going off memory. I'm sure somebody here knows for sure. If I'm mistaken, then this post is probably moot. (Alternatively, if this has already turned into a McHaleian unwritten handshake deal between Kahn and Taylor, God help us...)
Anyway, this leads to the question of what to do should the season (or most of it) be eliminated? I think many of us thought one more bad year might be it for Kahn (maybe not a safe assumption with Papa Glen running the show, granted). But what if there's no season? Surely Taylor can't extend the guy after 32-132. OTOH, would Glen Taylor simply bid adieu and hire somebody else next spring?
So, is this Kahn's contract season? And if so, and the lockout wipes most-to-all-of-it out, what becomes of him?
WoW: 2010-2011 Top Underpaid Players
Wages of Wins declares Kevin Love the most underpaid player in the league last year. Not a huge surprise given that metric considers him the best player in the league last year, and he's on his rookie deal.
I don't think win score is the best stat out there, and I don't think Love's the best player in the league. But value-wise, no doubt the Wolves are robbing him blind right now. I suspect he'd be up there no matter what measure you want to use.
Anyway, 18 of the top 30 underpaid players, according to WoW, are on rookie deals. The rest are largely super-duper stars who are underpaid thanks to contract caps, or they're non-scoring, WoW-style studs (e.g., Kidd, Rondo, Chuck Hayes).
At any rate, this could be evidence vindicating Stop-n-Pop's theory of (paraphrasing) "Superstars, good young players on rookie deals, or bust."
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More Oddity?
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2011 1:51 PM EDT
on Canis Hoopus
I brought this up elsewhere, but with the addition of Derrick Williams last night, many are suggesting the Wolves' best (or maybe, most interesting) lineup next year should eventually be:
Rubio
Wes
Beasley
Williams
Love
So what's so odd about that? (I mean, besides the fact it's a mad science experiment trying to demarcate the fine line between "tweener" and "versatile"?)
Rubio (5th overall pick, 2009)
Wes (4th overall pick, 2010)
Beasley (2nd overall pick, 2008)
Williams (2nd overall pick, 2011)
Love (5th overall pick, 2008)
Yup, all five are former top-5 picks. (We can even swap in Darko, as well.)
My first thought was that has to be completely unique right now, right? Is there another team out there that even comes close?
Moreover, how unique is that historically, particularly in the post-merger, post-expansion era? If we could somehow formulate an NFL-style "draft points" system, would that lineup rank as one of the highest "draft" lineups in recent memory?
Sadly, I can't answer that. Have no idea how.
But moving beyond the trivia, what do people make of that? Do they undervalue role players/glue guys, or do they simply not know how to find them? Does this indicate an overall swing-for-the-fences mentality in Kahn's roster construction, or is it just a fluke? (That's not to suggest you can "only" find glue guys/role players outside the top 5; we know that's not true. But I don't think anybody's going to vouch for the Wolves' ability to find diamonds in the rough once the "elite" talent is picked over.)
My suspicion is a little from column A, a little from column B: They don't adequately value role players, and they probably do have some serious evaluation limitations.
Or maybe, since Beasley's the one guy who wasn't drafted by the Wolves, it's simply they've been terrible long enough that top 5 picks are going to accumulate on the roster.
At any rate, I just found that interesting.
Ellis’ defense is red flag for interested teams
Interesting article about the mixed impressions of Monta's D. Wolves still need a 2, and he's available, probably in a buy-low situation...not my preferred target, though.
Kevin Pelton's Prospect Comps
Anxiety about Jonas V rising...
Ed Weiland on the Draft's Shooting Guards
He has Brooks #1, Thompson #2, and Burks #3. He says Brooks checks out great in almost everything he looks for, and the only reason he can't predict all star games is because he didn't emerge until late in his career. But he notes that might be an opportunity thing, as Brooks has looked like a prospect on a per minute basis for a while now.
Interesting in that I believe Hollinger didn't like Brooks so much. Nerd fight!
Kahn said meeting with KR before now wouldn't have been productive b/c feelings were too "raw" after way season ended. "We're in a process."
Que?
Cavs still debating No. 1 pick
Eight days before the NBA draft, Cleveland Cavaliers coach Byron Scott told Yahoo! Sports the franchise isn’t close to deciding whether to use the No. 1 pick on Duke guard Kyrie Irving or Arizona forward Derrick Williams
We'll see.
It doesn't sound like they like him at all...RT @twolfpsychology: Do you think the wolves would consider Biyombo at #2?
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