SB Nation User Blog: jianfu

Nick Punto: Backup or Starter?

jianfu — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 03:03:32 -0000

Nick Punto: Backup or Starter?

Courtesy of one of the most hardcore saber blogs out there, insidethebook.com.

Ed Weiland's Draft Grades

jianfu — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:37:48 -0000

B: Minnesota Timberwolves: They get the grade for nabbing Rubio. While there appears to be some drama to be played out here, Rubio is a great talent that no team should be taking a pass on if the opportunity to draft him is there. Select him, get his rights and deal with whatever follows. That he came for a couple of players who weren’t really wanted anyway makes it that much better. The rest of the draft was rather weak. Lost in the puzzlement over the selection of Flynn at #6 is that he’s way overvalued as a prospect. That’s a bigger problem than drafting 2 PGs. I’ll never get too down on a team for taking the best player, even if he plays a position the team already has filled. My issue with Flynn is he’s nowhere near the best player available here. That he plays the same position as Rubio just magnifies the gaffe. Adding a Curry, Williams, Derozan, Hill or even a Mullens would have been a much better move. Ellington was a nice late round one pick up, until we realize that the pick they selected him with was part of the Garnett trade. I also give the Wolves some points for a general backcourt reshuffling. This team needed a new look and they got it.

He also does an interesting comparison of the PGs in this draft with the famous quarterback draft the NFL had in 1983, with Rubio, as the first chosen, playing the role of John Elway; Flynn, the second, playing the role of the bust Todd Blackledge; and Lawson, the sixth PG taken, playing the role of Marino, the 6th QB taken that year.

It should be noted he's not all that high on ANY of the alternatives he suggests above. He just really doesn't like Flynn as a prospect, and I think he's suggesting they should have just drafted a finisher once Rubio fell into their laps.

I pretty much agree with his points, FWIW, although I think grabbing a future first rounder might be a slick move. Or maybe not, as Weiland and Hollinger both see Lawson as an awesome prospect. OTOH, scouts and analysts who consider body type (Richard Lu) think Lawson was probably picked about where he should have. Guess we'll see. Depends on how good Lawson is and where that Charlotte pick ends up being.

Draft Outsider Blog: HOPSON Projection, DKV Joventuts Ricky Rubio

jianfu — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 23:06:10 -0000

Draft Outsider Blog: HOPSON Projection, DKV Joventuts Ricky Rubio

This is why the Wolves should hold on to this kid.

Love-Mayo Trade Update

jianfu — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 21:51:08 -0000

Not sure how much this has been touched on, but the controversial trade from draft night 2008 just took on some more shape. If we eliminate all the gratuitous names of cap/contract guys and/or the gear greasers (e.g., Mike "Hot Potato" Miller), the Wolves have essentially traded OJ Mayo and Randy Foye for Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.

Interesting. And while I personally hope the see Love and Rubio in Wolves jerseys for many years, who knows what The Wrath might do. It's possible this deal keeps on shape-shifting over the next year or two.

WoW: Superstar Search in the NBA Draft

jianfu — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:33:13 -0000

WoW: Superstar Search in the NBA Draft

Dave Berri says the odds aren't good for landing a superstar in this draft.

Top Hoopus Prospects and their Strength of Schedule

jianfu — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 22:06:05 -0000

I posted this over in the "Jackson'd!!!" comments, but I'm going to make it a FanPost of it, too. Because level of competition makes a difference!

Now that we have a Hoopus Consensus Top 10 Draft board, I thought this would be a good time to look into the level of competition these guys faced. I think all of us, at least at some level, are looking into these guys' numbers to try to separate them. I think you can't do that without doing some accounting for the context these guys were playing in.

According to Pomeroy, here’s the strength of schedule ranks for the Hoopus draft board members teams:

1) Oklahoma (Blake Griffen): #37
2) Rubio N/A
3) Arizona State (James Harden): #20
4) Davidson (Stephen Curry): #223 (ouch! Although played well in tourney last year)
5) UConn (Hasheem Thabeet): #18
6) Memphis (Tyreke Evans): #65
7) Southern California (Demar DeRozan): #6 (!)
8) Brandon Jennings n/a
9) UCLA (Jrue Holiday): #35
10) Syracuse (Jonny Flynn): #2 (!!!)

As for the candidates trying to make our illustrious board:

Louisville (Earl Clark and Terrence Williams): #15
Duke (Gerald Henderson): #13
UNC (Ty Lawson): #12
Arizona (Jordan Hill): #7
Gonzaga (Austin Daye): #80

Obviously you can get even more detailed and analyze how prospects did in games they had an opportunity to against top competition (e.g., Curry?), but short of that, maybe this is a big feather in the cap for DeRozan and Flynn.

Made; Not Born

jianfu — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:28:11 -0000

Made; Not Born

Football Outsiders considers coaching and development far, far underrated in the drafting process.

RT and the NFL Draft

jianfu — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 01:14:52 -0000

Q: In 2008, how many starting RTs were drafted in the first round?

A: According to pro-football-reference.com's starter depth chart, 9.

Vernon Carey (Dolphins, #19 in 2004)
Damien Woody (Jets, #17 in 1999 by Patriots)
Willie Anderson (Ravens, #10 in 1996 by Bengals)
Marc Columbo (Cowboys, #29 in 2002 by Bears)
John Tait (Bears, #14 in 1999 by Chiefs)
Gosder Cherilus (Lions, #17 in 2008)
Jeff Otah (Panthers, #19 in 2008)
Levi Brown (Cardinals, #5 in 2001)
Alex Barron (Rams, #19 in 2005)

Naturally, as a Vikings fan I'm looking at this vis a vis the potential of the Vikings drafting Eben Britton in the first round. Looking at it like this, we can almost eliminate most of these names.

Woody, Anderson, and Tait are all vets who have long moved off their original positions (Woody was a center in the day, the other two were LTs)

Columbo and Brown are LT busts, playing RT by default.

Carey's sort of unique. He had been promoted to LT in 2007, but then the Dolphins drafted Long and he moved back to RT. So it's tough to say how much of that is due to Carey's limitations, or the fact his team sprung for a guy considered a franchise talent.

That leaves Cherilus, Otah, and Barron as potential comparisons. These guys were drafted in the 1st round as RTs, or at least 2nd-best OTs. Cherilus is maybe on the fence with that statement, but he was never considered an elite pass protector as a prospect, and was maybe caught up in the OT hullaballo last draft. Otah and Barron were drafted into situations with well established/regarded starters (Gross and Pace) at OT. Outside of these two (or three), it seems the 1st round RT is a rare beast.

Now, the tricky part is I believe RT is maybe the team's biggest need. They absolutely, positively cannot whiff at that position in this draft, not unless they want to fall back on game-but-overmatched Artis Hicks. From that perspective, Britton is an intriguing choice. More than anything, the 1st round isn't necessarily about difference makers or franchise-calibur talents (although you take them when they're there), it's about consistently finding good starters. If Britton lives up to some of his comparisons (Michael Roos, Eric Winston, Jon Runyan), he'd be well worth the #22 pick.

OTOH, this quick and dirty (and hardly infallible) ditty of analysis suggests the vast majority of teams get by finding RTs later in the draft. And if the Vikings do their homework and/or get lucky and pick the right guy out of the 2nd-tier group with guys like Jamon Meredith, Troy Kropog, and Gerald Cadogen, they don't need to burn their first pick to address a problem. (Or they hope a guy like Oher falls, who has a chance to boot McKinney over to the right side.)

I'm honestly torn on this. Given the team needs playmakers, maybe they should hold off on OT til later. But as I said, they cannot whiff on the O-lIne. It's really that bad/thin. And regardless of what position you're discussing, your chances of finding starters decrease substantially the further down the draft you go. Guess we'll see.

Eben Britton's Draft Diary: Minnesota Visit

jianfu — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 05:23:35 -0000

Eben Britton's Draft Diary: Minnesota Visit

Britton details his visit to Winter Park. Says it reminded him of a college recruiting atmosphere, in that unlike his other visits where there were only 1-3 prospects, the Vikings had 28 there at once.

Hayward-Bey v. Maclin

jianfu — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 00:26:53 -0000

There's a lot of interesting analysis over at FieldGulls this time of year. Today, for instance, they compare DHB and Jeremy Maclin using yards per target against top 30 competition, with some perhaps surprising conclusions.

I'd love to see how Harvin might fare with similar analysis. I keep doing 180s on the guy, on the one hand thinking gadget players don't work and Chilly's just not the coach for him, and then on the other hand thinking he could change the dynamic of the offense by utilizing more 3-wide sets, spreading the defense vertically and horizontally (taking defensive players out of the box as well as opening running lanes), and being an actual dangerous YAC threat on all those 5 yard passes in the playbook. Maybe I'll need to keep checking over there.