There was a recent post on the main board that asked us to post our ideal drafts, but I did not have time to reply.

Here is my ideal draft

1a. Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: We need a long term starter, but don't need an immediate starter. Gilmore can have an impact covering in the Nickel until he is ready yto start full-time.

1b. Dunt'a HIghtower, MLB, Alabama (could go Hightower/Kirkpatrick with same endstate) Rey is just too much of a questionmark with his history of arrests, substance abuse, and ankle injuries. He can play on the outside long-term if he continues to develop, but we need a MLB who will play for us.

2. (Trade our 2nd and 4th to move up) Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Takes over as the feature back with support from Leonard (3rd down), Scott (Chnage of pace), and BJGE (shrt yardage).

3. Brandon Brooks, G, Mia (OH): Offers competition if not immediate starting at RG.

4. (Trade Cincy and NE 5th round picks to move back up into 4th) Marvin McNutt, WR Iowa: Offers a balance of posssesion and big play ability opposite AJ Green. Has good size and speed, and might be drafted earlier in a weaker WR draft.

5. DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia: Provides depth on the DL, and we have had good success with D-linemen out of Georgia.

6. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: A 3/4th scale model of Andy Dalton to back him up long-term.

Have-at me.

I like many people on the board thought that we signed Harvey and Anderson to replace Fanene and Rucker as a flyer based on draft potential. After reading Peter king’s assessment of our free agency period, I decided to relook it. We were wrong.

It is true, that neither Harvey nor Anderson lived up to their eighth overall draft position. However, in their combined 9 years in the NFL, they have more tackles than Fanene and Rucker have in their 13 years, and many more solo tackles. They also have more passes defended, which makes sense since both are taller. They have fewer sacks, but the average 2 a year, just like Rucker and Fanene.

Once I really looked at the number I realized that Harvey and Anderson are younger bigger, faster and more productive than Rucker and Fanene. They did not live up to their draft potential, but we did not draft them so that does not matter. Anderson and Harvey are an upgrade to our defensive line.

My Off-Season Thoughts

Defensive performance:

I thought our Defense was solid over-all. I think that right now we lack impact players on who will get close to double digit sacks, or get interceptions consistently.

Defensive Line:

I think our defensive line is good, but we need some guys to develop to the point they can beat one on one match-ups consistently, especially Dunlop and Johnson on the edge. We should add depth to the line through the draft, but keep the core intact if possible.

Linebackers:

I thought Maualuga's performance in the middle was superb until the ankle injury. He shut down Jacksonville at the end of the game almost single-handedly. After the ankle injury, he was slow. This is his second ankle injury in his career, and we need to keep an eye on that. Thomas Howard was one of our top performers on defense and he makes Rivers expendable. Manny Lawson was solid at the SLB. Skuta and Brandon Johnson provided solid depth.

Secondary:

Cris Crocker was one of the two weakest links on the team. I think the team knew this going into the season, which is why they drafted Sands and traded for Mays. They were gaining confidence in Mays towards the end of the season, but he was hampered by injury. Nelson was the high point in the secondary. I do not grade our corners as harshly as some. I think that Hall, Clements, Jones, and Jennings were solid but unspectacular.

Offensive Performance.:

Our Offense was mediocre. We need to improve in every aspect except the big pass play.

Rush Offense: Both Scott and Benson were underwhelming. They did not seem to able to get a tough yard when necessary, nor kill games at the end. Benson's best quality is his durability, which is a good attribute, but we need more. Some will blame the offensive line, which needs to improve, but I look at what Demarco Murray did in Dallas, and I see that the running back is a key ingredient. Dallas played their best ball when Murray was running wild.

Pass Offense: Our pass offense was also mediocre. Dalton needs to improve next year for us to compete for the division. With our receiving corps, there is no reason he can't throw 25TDs or more and 10 or less INTs. AJ Green is phenomenal. Simpson needs to come back to the ball on short routes especially hooks. He needs to understand this is the NFL and he is playing against better corners than he did in college. Otherwise, he was number 12 in yards among number 2 wide receivers in the league. A lot of people want to replace Simpson with, but I think that Simpson with improvement from his first year starting, is solid. I think that Whalen, Hawkins, and Shipley all played well in their roles. Gresham is a work in progress as well, but progressing nicely. Lee was adequate. Leonard was spectacular in his role, which could be expanded some. The other running backs were abysmal in the passing game.

Special Teams:

Special teams were solid all around. Hopefully Nugent gets over his late season slump. Tate was solid but I don't think he did enough to warrant his position as a return specialist.

How do we improve?

First off, I am not a splash free agency guy. I look at teams in similar markets(Indy, Pittsburgh, Green Bay) that have succeeded and I don't see splash free agents there. Our best free agents were not splash guys. Bobby Williams and Cedric Benson were our best recent signings, and there wasn't a huge market for either.

What positions can be improved?

Nate livings is probably our weakest starter, followed by Crocker. Neither should be re-signed, not even for depth. I am not a fan of either Scott or Benson and I think we need to replace both. We need a starting corner; however, we can draft a talented guy who is one year away. Bobbie Williams is old, and suffered a season ending injury, will he be able to recover?

What positions can be replaced from within?

This is my biggest question mark. Is Mays ready to start after learning the system for a season? He was a late pick-up and was not in training camp, so he had a learning curve. If so, he make drafting Barron a waste. Is Boling ready to be the LG? The coaching staff wanted Boling to start at left guard this year, but that got derailed by the Williams suspension. Remember that he was getting first team starts at both LG and RG during the preseason, even though the coaching staff knew he needed to start the season at RG, they wanted to know if he could replace Livings. Unfortunately, we still don't know. Is Otis Hudson ready to start at RG? Alexander said he was the most improved lineman and he was drafted to replace Williams. We know that our future running back is not on our roster. Moch also remains a question mark.

Who should we re-sign?

Nelson long-term. Lawson for one year. Simpson for 3-4 years. Nugent long-term. I don't think we can re-sign Collins, but we should if we can. Brandon Johnson, Fanene, and Pressley. I would re-sign Jennings and Jones if reasonable. If we draft a corner early, I would use Jones as our returner and 4th corner.

What are our needs?

Running back is our biggest need because we need to replace both RBs. Because we have questions at both guards, but possible replacements for both, I think Guard is our second biggest need. We can make it through another year at corner with our current roster, but we need a new starter, so that is our third need, aslo if we get an immediate starter Clements could be moved to nickel/safety. We need depth on the defensive line to replace Fanene, Rucker, and Geathers. I think this is Geathers last season with us, and the other two are nearing 30. We need depth at Linebacker, this need grows if Lawson gets a long term offer and leaves. Back-up Offensive Tackle if Collins signs elsewhere to start. We could use another TE if Coffman is a bust. We need safety depth. I like our receivers, unless someone else signs Simpson, then we have a need.

Where do we fill them?

Marvin has always seen cornerback as a first round position. He traded down in the draft to get Deltha Oneal, and drafted Joseph and Hall in the first round. This is the second position fixed, after Quarterback, when there is a need. Marvin has addressed RB early when there is a need. He drafted Perry and Irons in the first two rounds. When they didn't work out he replaced Perry midseason with Benson. This season is the biggest offseason need we have had a RB. Marvin has historically drafted guards to start immediately in the second round. Historically Marvin has replaced safeties in Free Agency.

From that I think we draft Richardson if available at 17, if not we take the best corner available. At 21, I think we take the best corner available, unless we took one at 17, then we take the best Guard, RB, or Barron.

Marvin has been gold drafting defensive linemen in the 3rd and 4th round, with Peko, Geathers, Rucker, Sims, Atkins, and Johnson all drafted in that range. I would fill our defensive line needs there.

In free agency, the signing I would most like to see is Benjarvus Green-Ellis. He has shown the ability to gain rushing yards in a passing offense and can share the ball. That does not eliminate the need to draft a RB.

Our chances of winning rely almost entirely on the arm of Andy Dalton. He has a lot of weapons, but if he
does not control the ball the way we did in 2009, we have little chance of winning any game.

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The more I think about it, the more I believe Andy Dalton should start this year. There are two obvious possibilities if Dalton starts.

1.       The Bengals win

2.       The Bengals lose

Now I agree, the Bengals may do better if we bring in a veteran quarterback. But, I ask what does an 8-8 season with a veteran quarterback accomplish? Nothing really.  

If Dalton starts and the Bengals win, then mission accomplished we have our quarterback.

But if the Bengals lose with Dalton as the starter, then we have an evaluation of his performance to make a educated choice on taking Andrew Luck or Landry Jones early in the draft. If Dalton does not start, then all we can do is judge his potential versus their potential. There is obviously the potential to develop a situation like San Diego when they had Rivers and Brees, but I would argue that worked out fine for them. A quarterback with potential is easy to trade. The worst position we could be in is to wait on Dalton and have him not work out. That puts us back into the situations with Klinger or Smith, where we had to suffer through several years before we knew the quarterback would not succeed, and were stuck with them.  This year is unique because of the shortened off season combined with bringing in a new offense. A veteran free agent does not improve the team, he just takes snaps away from Dalton.  Because Dalton is a second round pick, he can be replaced as quarterback of the future next year, but I think giving him the chance to compete to start with Jordan Palmer and LeFevour lets us know if he should be the quarterback of the future, or if we should continue to look. I am not against bringing in a free agent to compete if Dalton is not ready, but we should cahse one with the expectaion that he sart for a year.

My entire offseason thought process changed on one play in the San Diego game. It was a deep pass late in the third quarter. With 7:11 left to play in the third quarter, Palmer threw deep. It was incomplete maybe 5 yards beyond Andre Caldwell's reach, 65 yards or so down field. Until that throw my thought was  we could trade Palmer and Chad and maybe pick up 2 3rd or 4th round picks. That throw made me rethink all my assumptions about Palmer's dead arm. It helped me understand Palmers poor QB play between the Chicago game where he had a 146.7 rating and the Chargers game when he had a 157.2 rating.  Two games with nine passing TDs that bookend 23 games with 28 touchdowns to 24 Interceptions. The contrast is so stark it hurts the eyes. The Bears game was Chris Henry's last full game. The San Diego game was the first without TO. In those two games we had a deep passing attack. I had thought Palmer's arm was dead. He had completed some deep passes, but they always seemed short. TO and Chad had to pull up and that gave the coverage time to adjust. That throw made me realize our top two receivers were now slow. Carson's arm isn't dead, he has been trying to put touch on his deep passes because our receivers can't run under them, can't adjust to them as they need to. Palmer needed to put his passes at the exact right spot or TO wouldn't catch them. Simpson and Caldwell can run under Palmer's passes, as Henry did.  That's what made Cincinnati's passing game so dangerous early last year. The Bengals passing game was broken along with Henry's arm. We didn't need aging stars like Coles and TO, we needed young guys who are hungry and can run and catch. It looks like the Bengals will bring back Chad, but I think that they will have a good set of receivers in Chad, Simpson, Caldwell and Shipley. Chad was still 26th in yards this year, despite TO's shadow. Simpson finished the year with 120 yards a game his last 2. Caldwell had 90 yards a game his last three. Shipley was second among rookies in catches. Gresham looks to be our TE for years, and Coffman finally showed something. Our running game was better with the addition of Pressley.

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I believe that Palmer will lead us to our 3rd play-off appearance this year. I believe he will get at least one play-off win. I still hold out hope that we will win the Super bowl, but even if we do not I do not see a better QB who is available to lead us.

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Much to-do has been made of Brat’s lack of creativity limiting the offense. I am of the opinion that Brat has been limited by personnel since 2006. In 2007 there were no RBs, in 2008, there was no QB or Center, in 2009 there were no receivers (after Chris Henry Broke his arm).

First, I want to compare the 2005 rushing game to the 2009.  We all know that run-first Bengals of 2009 had one of the best rushing seasons in franchise history, rushing for over 2000 total yards, which is pretty darn good. What you haven’t thought about is that in 2005, the pass happy Bengals rushed for .1 yards more per carry and were only outrun by 10 yards a game by the 2009 team. The 2005 team also had 6 more rushing TDs.  I only say this to show that the 2010 team can be even better than 2009 in terms of rushing, because the running backs in 2010 will be better than 2009, they just need a better passing offense to open running lanes.

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When mocking drafts, too many analysts look more at need than trends.  Draft trends will tell you a lot about who a team wil draft.

I take, as an exampleand as an aside, the Oakland raiders. The Raiders like a big arm to throw deep to fast receivers. That is why it was predictable that The Raiders took Jamarcus Russell to throw to Heyward Bey.

When looking at the Bengals we must look at who they have drafted during the Marvin Lewis Regime. I have also considered Bengals needs, and free agent signings, but that is less important than drafting trends. As I see it, Marvin Lewis' priorities are: QB, Offensive Tackle, Cornerback. Linebacker,  Guard, Runningback, Wide Receiver, Defensive End, Safety, Defensive Tackle, TE/FB, and kickers in that order. I will caveat that I do not have enough data, in my opinion, to correctly judge WR, TE and FB.   

My evidence is this. Marvin used his first pick, and the first overall pick on his starting QB. His second highest pick was Andre Smith instead of Michael Crabtree when both tackle and WR were, in my opinion question Marks. He drafted his starting CBs in he first round and one CB in the second, of 6 total drafted. He drafted Keith Rivers instead of moving up to take Sedrick ellis. Further he has drafted 4 linebackers in the first 2 rounds and no DT before the 3rd, and 10 linebackers overall vice 7 DTs. He has drafted 2 starting Left Guards in the second round, everyttime ther was a need and a pick available. He has taken 2 running backs in the second round, of 3 total taken, again every time there was need, he used a high pick. He has taken 10 WR in 7 Drafts including 4 in the fisrt 3 rounds. He has taken 2 DE in the first 3 rounds, and 5 overall.  He has taken 7 DTs in 7 years vs 2 FB, and 2 TE, however, he brought in starters at both TE and FB early in his tenure, so the need has been very low. He has drafted one punter.

I see the Bengals needs as WR, TE, G, Safety then depth at every position except punter in that order.

Based on this I expect The bengals will Draft a LB in the firdst round if the right one is available, either a SLB or MLB to back up the first year, then start.

If not, or if Michael Johnson will move to SLB (watch video or 2009 rookie camp), the Bengals will probably use their first round pick on a guard.

I could also see a WR, safety,  or TE (Moeaki from Iowa is the only one I think they might take in the first round as he is the most complete) in the first round, and a combination of 3 or 5 of these based on comp picks and the very real potential to trade down.   

I also argue that if you remove injury, Marvin Lewis has drafted very well. Four of the six  1st round picks have contributed. Chris Perry is the counter arguement, and he did not contribute as the starting RB, but only in '05 as the complimentary back. Andre Smith should start next year, he would have started this year had he not held out. Most teams would be happy with this sucess rate. Cincinnati Bengals The second round has not been as good (but should not be expected to be), with Odell Thurman being a bad risk, and Jerome Simpson a bust in the making ( I know most would say a bust, but I have looked at every 1,000 yard receiver this year and the true break out players Miles Austin and Sidney Rice did not contribute in their first 2 years.) Kewan Ratliff did not pan out, 4 of 7 started this year for their team. In the thrid and 4th round, most of his picks have contributed. Jeremi Johnson, Domato Peko,  Robert Geathers, Landon Johnson, Stacy Andrews and Chris Henry all contributed, and several also contributed a comp draft pick when they left. Caldwell is on pace to have a 800 yrad year next year if he continues to develop on the normal trend for WR. Michael Johnson contributed nicely, leaving only Coffman as a true Question mark.  I think that is good value. The last 3 rounds have been used for depth with a few gems found, notably Fanene, Huber, Ndukwe,  and Brenard Scott.