SBNation.com User Blog: jim0ijk

The State of the Bengals

jim0ijk — Sun, 20 Jan 2013 03:39:14 -0000

This post is my opinion on the state of the Bengals. For this post I am assuming that the Bengals will be able to resign anyone they want.

Offense:

QB: I think going into the next year the Bengals are set for next year once we resign Gradkowski. Many people think Dalton regressed, but I do not. What I saw is that last year, Dalton looked for Green, then rushed through his progressions and threw the ball out of bounds. This year he tried to go longer before throwing it away and took sacks. I expect next year for him to continue to progress and make better choices. That said, I think we all believe and hope that Dalton's ceiling is Drew Brees,who is similar in stature, and was a high 2nd round pick that came into the league drafted after the best weapon available (LT). (I am going to compare Dalton's stats to Brees' stats in San Diego, I am ignoring Brees' 1 game in his rookie year) Consider this: In his first 2 years starting, Dalton had a better completion % than Brees. Dalton had more passing Yards this year than Brees had in SD, and more last year than Brees had in any of his first 4 years. Dalton had the same number of TDs this year than Brees had in his best year with SD. Dalton threw fewer INTs per game than Brees in his first 2 years starting(Brees threw more TDs/game his 2nd year than his first, just like Dalton). Dalton threw more 20 yard passes last year than Brees in any year at SD. Dalton has thrown 1 less 40 yard pass than Brees threw total in SD. At that point, SD gave up on Brees, I think Dalton has fared extremely well his first 2 years, and am excited about him going forward. Iwould like to see another young QB brought in for depth, some likel Alex Carder from Western Michigan.

WR: I think our 1-4 receivers are set for next year with Green, Jones, Sanu and Hawkins at 1-4. I think that Sanzenbacher and Whalen should get a chance to compete for the roster, and we should draft another receiver. I do not think we should draft a receiver high unless he is expected to be the number one returner. Both Jones and Sanu played well in their stints as the number 2 receiver. I also think our offense ran best all year when Sanu was the number 2, but I think he slips to number three next year, but will remain the key receiver on third down and red zone which can make the offense very dangerous.

RB: BJGE played well especially in short yardage situations and grinding out the clock at the end of games. He provided more big plays than I expected; however, I think we should use one of the first 2 picks on a RB. I would not be opposed to drafting 2, one all-around feature back and a speed back that can return. I like Leonard, but would not bring him back except as a camp body who could be brought in off the street in case of injury. I do not like Scott, and would not bring him back. I like Peerman and Boom on teams. I would bring them back to compete, but think both are replaceable. I want to see the competition at camp between Connors and Pressley, and I think whichever we keep will be better for it.

OL: I like our starting offensive line, and think that if Wharton comes back, we have our back-up at center, guard, and tackle in Robinson, Wharton, and Collins. I would like to see a replacement for Roland drafted, and maybe another Guard, both in the late rounds to compete, but likely go to the practice squad.

Defense:

DL: I like our top 4 coming back next year, Johnson, Dunlop, Peko, and Atkins. I think it is time to move on from Geathers, unless he wants to stay with a huge pay cut. I still like our depth with Gilberry and Anderson backing up at the ends. I am torn on Sims, I like his presence against the run, but Still and Thompson a shot, and we wasted a pick if we don't keep them. Then again, Sims was taken nearly as high. No matter what I am happy with our top 4 tackles. I think we need to draft an end in the 1st 4 rounds to maintain our pass rush dominance, and allow Zimmer to create pressure with the front four.

LB: Many people here think Maualuga should go. I would keep him, assuming the cost is reasonable, and resign Thomas Howard, then start Rey, Burfict, and Howard (from strong to weak). This would protect Rey on passing downs, and keep our top 3 tacklers from the last 2 years. I would let Lawson go, he is too expensive for his impact. Doing this allows us to draft a LB high, even in the first round, but allows us flexibility.

CB: I really wish we had seen more of Kirkpatrick this year. If he comes in like he should next year, we have solid corners in Hall, Kirkpatrick, Jones, and Newman. Still, we could use our 1st round pick on another corner. The league has shifted to the point that there are three corners on the field. Drafting a 1st round corner should allow Jones to be our primary returner, which I think is the team's best return option.

S: I would like to see us take a safety in the 1st 2 rounds. I don't think the players are there to take a first round safety. I think Strong safety is one of the 3 weakest positions on the team, along with running back and kick returner. I like Nelson at the other safety, but we all know Crocker should be gone. Sands needs to go for hitting a woman. I like Miles on teams, but I don't think Mays is going to pan out.

Special Teams: I like Huber and Harris, and am comfortable with either Nugent or Brown. I like our gunners and coverage units. I think we need an upgrade at returner, which could be Jones or someone we draft at RB, WR, or corner.

That is what I think, thanks for reading and feel free to agree with me further below.

My Ideal draft

jim0ijk — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 17:18:36 -0000

There was a recent post on the main board that asked us to post our ideal drafts, but I did not have time to reply.

Here is my ideal draft

1a. Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: We need a long term starter, but don't need an immediate starter. Gilmore can have an impact covering in the Nickel until he is ready yto start full-time.

1b. Dunt'a HIghtower, MLB, Alabama (could go Hightower/Kirkpatrick with same endstate) Rey is just too much of a questionmark with his history of arrests, substance abuse, and ankle injuries. He can play on the outside long-term if he continues to develop, but we need a MLB who will play for us.

2. (Trade our 2nd and 4th to move up) Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Takes over as the feature back with support from Leonard (3rd down), Scott (Chnage of pace), and BJGE (shrt yardage).

3. Brandon Brooks, G, Mia (OH): Offers competition if not immediate starting at RG.

4. (Trade Cincy and NE 5th round picks to move back up into 4th) Marvin McNutt, WR Iowa: Offers a balance of posssesion and big play ability opposite AJ Green. Has good size and speed, and might be drafted earlier in a weaker WR draft.

5. DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia: Provides depth on the DL, and we have had good success with D-linemen out of Georgia.

6. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: A 3/4th scale model of Andy Dalton to back him up long-term.

Have-at me.

There was a recent post on the main board that asked us to post our ideal drafts, but I did not have time to reply.

Here is my ideal draft

1a. Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: We need a long term starter, but don't need an immediate starter. Gilmore can have an impact covering in the Nickel until he is ready yto start full-time.

2. (Trade our 2nd and 4th to move up) Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Takes over as the feature back with support from Leonard (3rd down), Scott (Chnage of pace), and BJGE (shrt yardage).

3. Brandon Brooks, G, Mia (OH): Offers competition if not immediate starting at RG.

5. DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia: Provides depth on the DL, and we have had good success with D-linemen out of Georgia.

6. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: A 3/4th scale model of Andy Dalton to back him up long-term.

Have-at me.

Misconception in Free Agency

jim0ijk — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 20:32:35 -0000

I like many people on the board thought that we signed Harvey and Anderson to replace Fanene and Rucker as a flyer based on draft potential. After reading Peter king’s assessment of our free agency period, I decided to relook it. We were wrong.

It is true, that neither Harvey nor Anderson lived up to their eighth overall draft position. However, in their combined 9 years in the NFL, they have more tackles than Fanene and Rucker have in their 13 years, and many more solo tackles. They also have more passes defended, which makes sense since both are taller. They have fewer sacks, but the average 2 a year, just like Rucker and Fanene.

Once I really looked at the number I realized that Harvey and Anderson are younger bigger, faster and more productive than Rucker and Fanene. They did not live up to their draft potential, but we did not draft them so that does not matter. Anderson and Harvey are an upgrade to our defensive line.

My Off-Season Thoughts

jim0ijk — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 16:45:48 -0000

My Off-Season Thoughts

Defensive performance:

I thought our Defense was solid over-all. I think that right now we lack impact players on who will get close to double digit sacks, or get interceptions consistently.

Defensive Line:

I think our defensive line is good, but we need some guys to develop to the point they can beat one on one match-ups consistently, especially Dunlop and Johnson on the edge. We should add depth to the line through the draft, but keep the core intact if possible.

Linebackers:

I thought Maualuga's performance in the middle was superb until the ankle injury. He shut down Jacksonville at the end of the game almost single-handedly. After the ankle injury, he was slow. This is his second ankle injury in his career, and we need to keep an eye on that. Thomas Howard was one of our top performers on defense and he makes Rivers expendable. Manny Lawson was solid at the SLB. Skuta and Brandon Johnson provided solid depth.

Secondary:

Cris Crocker was one of the two weakest links on the team. I think the team knew this going into the season, which is why they drafted Sands and traded for Mays. They were gaining confidence in Mays towards the end of the season, but he was hampered by injury. Nelson was the high point in the secondary. I do not grade our corners as harshly as some. I think that Hall, Clements, Jones, and Jennings were solid but unspectacular.

Offensive Performance.:

Our Offense was mediocre. We need to improve in every aspect except the big pass play.

Rush Offense: Both Scott and Benson were underwhelming. They did not seem to able to get a tough yard when necessary, nor kill games at the end. Benson's best quality is his durability, which is a good attribute, but we need more. Some will blame the offensive line, which needs to improve, but I look at what Demarco Murray did in Dallas, and I see that the running back is a key ingredient. Dallas played their best ball when Murray was running wild.

Pass Offense: Our pass offense was also mediocre. Dalton needs to improve next year for us to compete for the division. With our receiving corps, there is no reason he can't throw 25TDs or more and 10 or less INTs. AJ Green is phenomenal. Simpson needs to come back to the ball on short routes especially hooks. He needs to understand this is the NFL and he is playing against better corners than he did in college. Otherwise, he was number 12 in yards among number 2 wide receivers in the league. A lot of people want to replace Simpson with, but I think that Simpson with improvement from his first year starting, is solid. I think that Whalen, Hawkins, and Shipley all played well in their roles. Gresham is a work in progress as well, but progressing nicely. Lee was adequate. Leonard was spectacular in his role, which could be expanded some. The other running backs were abysmal in the passing game.

Special Teams:

Special teams were solid all around. Hopefully Nugent gets over his late season slump. Tate was solid but I don't think he did enough to warrant his position as a return specialist.

How do we improve?

First off, I am not a splash free agency guy. I look at teams in similar markets(Indy, Pittsburgh, Green Bay) that have succeeded and I don't see splash free agents there. Our best free agents were not splash guys. Bobby Williams and Cedric Benson were our best recent signings, and there wasn't a huge market for either.

What positions can be improved?

Nate livings is probably our weakest starter, followed by Crocker. Neither should be re-signed, not even for depth. I am not a fan of either Scott or Benson and I think we need to replace both. We need a starting corner; however, we can draft a talented guy who is one year away. Bobbie Williams is old, and suffered a season ending injury, will he be able to recover?

What positions can be replaced from within?

This is my biggest question mark. Is Mays ready to start after learning the system for a season? He was a late pick-up and was not in training camp, so he had a learning curve. If so, he make drafting Barron a waste. Is Boling ready to be the LG? The coaching staff wanted Boling to start at left guard this year, but that got derailed by the Williams suspension. Remember that he was getting first team starts at both LG and RG during the preseason, even though the coaching staff knew he needed to start the season at RG, they wanted to know if he could replace Livings. Unfortunately, we still don't know. Is Otis Hudson ready to start at RG? Alexander said he was the most improved lineman and he was drafted to replace Williams. We know that our future running back is not on our roster. Moch also remains a question mark.

Who should we re-sign?

Nelson long-term. Lawson for one year. Simpson for 3-4 years. Nugent long-term. I don't think we can re-sign Collins, but we should if we can. Brandon Johnson, Fanene, and Pressley. I would re-sign Jennings and Jones if reasonable. If we draft a corner early, I would use Jones as our returner and 4th corner.

What are our needs?

Running back is our biggest need because we need to replace both RBs. Because we have questions at both guards, but possible replacements for both, I think Guard is our second biggest need. We can make it through another year at corner with our current roster, but we need a new starter, so that is our third need, aslo if we get an immediate starter Clements could be moved to nickel/safety. We need depth on the defensive line to replace Fanene, Rucker, and Geathers. I think this is Geathers last season with us, and the other two are nearing 30. We need depth at Linebacker, this need grows if Lawson gets a long term offer and leaves. Back-up Offensive Tackle if Collins signs elsewhere to start. We could use another TE if Coffman is a bust. We need safety depth. I like our receivers, unless someone else signs Simpson, then we have a need.

Where do we fill them?

Marvin has always seen cornerback as a first round position. He traded down in the draft to get Deltha Oneal, and drafted Joseph and Hall in the first round. This is the second position fixed, after Quarterback, when there is a need. Marvin has addressed RB early when there is a need. He drafted Perry and Irons in the first two rounds. When they didn't work out he replaced Perry midseason with Benson. This season is the biggest offseason need we have had a RB. Marvin has historically drafted guards to start immediately in the second round. Historically Marvin has replaced safeties in Free Agency.

From that I think we draft Richardson if available at 17, if not we take the best corner available. At 21, I think we take the best corner available, unless we took one at 17, then we take the best Guard, RB, or Barron.

Marvin has been gold drafting defensive linemen in the 3rd and 4th round, with Peko, Geathers, Rucker, Sims, Atkins, and Johnson all drafted in that range. I would fill our defensive line needs there.

In free agency, the signing I would most like to see is Benjarvus Green-Ellis. He has shown the ability to gain rushing yards in a passing offense and can share the ball. That does not eliminate the need to draft a RB.

My Off-Season Thoughts

Defensive performance:

I thought our Defense was solid over-all. I think that right now we lack impact players on who will get close to double digit sacks, or get interceptions consistently.

Defensive Line:

Linebackers:

Secondary:

Offensive Performance.:

Our Offense was mediocre. We need to improve in every aspect except the big pass play.

Special Teams:

Special teams were solid all around. Hopefully Nugent gets over his late season slump. Tate was solid but I don't think he did enough to warrant his position as a return specialist.

How do we improve?

What positions can be improved?

What positions can be replaced from within?

Who should we re-sign?

What are our needs?

Where do we fill them?

Let's face facts

jim0ijk — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 13:04:08 -0000

Our chances of winning rely almost entirely on the arm of Andy Dalton. He has a lot of weapons, but if he
does not control the ball the way we did in 2009, we have little chance of winning any game.

Things I like:

1. 60% completion percentage: I admit 60% completions may not translate into the regular season, but for optimism sake, I will assume it does. It's not great, 20th in the league last year, but it would have tied Sam Bradford who most belive had a successful rookie season and led St Louis to their best season in years.

2. 1 Sack: More importantly, Dalton had a very good sense of where the pressure was, when to get rid of the ball, and when to run. If we want to have a shot, we must gain positive yards on most plays and avoid negative plays. Sacks will kill us becuase we aren't going to gain a lot of yards per play.

3. 1 - 40 yard pass, 4 - 20 yard passes: The main concern with Dalton was arm strength. Of 16 players eligible for passing stats, he was tied for 2nd for passes 40 yards or longer, and tied for 6th with 4 passes of 20 yards or longer. Not great, but with AJ Green on the recieving end, its enough to keep safeties thinking about getting beat, which keeps the short game open. A successful deep atack isn't about long touchdowns, its about making the defense fear long touchdown passes. Dalton can do that.

Things I didn't like.

1. 3 INT: Last year, INT killed us, especially pick sixes. Dalton threw three in 60 passes which translates into 30 if he throws 600 passes (Palmer threw 586). That said, his interceptions decreased each game. If he throws picks we lose, plain and simpe, I don't think we are a comeback team this year.

2. 1 TD: We were 11th in the league in rush offense in the preseason. But we aren't going to getting rushing TD's unless opposing teams begin to fear our redzone passing game. I think our defense will be stout, but they can't win if we don't get some TDs.

After the Preseason I am more realistically optimistic than I was before. Dalton played well, and we improved each game. 3 of our first 4 opponents didn't look better in the preseason than we did, and I think we have more upside. Our defense was stout when given adequate field position. Our running game and short passing game looked good, our deep game was enough to keep defense guessing, and our punter and kicker looked great. We need to shore up our deep pass defense, but Michael Johnson, Rey Maualuga, Carlos Dunlop and Pat Sims look frightening up front, in a good way. If we keep sacks in the 20's and interceptions in the teens, we could be in the running for the play-offs.

Don't Chase a Free Agent Quarterback

jim0ijk — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 21:32:25 -0000

The more I think about it, the more I believe Andy Dalton should start this year. There are two obvious possibilities if Dalton starts.

1. The Bengals win

2. The Bengals lose

Now I agree, the Bengals may do better if we bring in a veteran quarterback. But, I ask what does an 8-8 season with a veteran quarterback accomplish? Nothing really.

If Dalton starts and the Bengals win, then mission accomplished we have our quarterback.

But if the Bengals lose with Dalton as the starter, then we have an evaluation of his performance to make a educated choice on taking Andrew Luck or Landry Jones early in the draft. If Dalton does not start, then all we can do is judge his potential versus their potential. There is obviously the potential to develop a situation like San Diego when they had Rivers and Brees, but I would argue that worked out fine for them. A quarterback with potential is easy to trade. The worst position we could be in is to wait on Dalton and have him not work out. That puts us back into the situations with Klinger or Smith, where we had to suffer through several years before we knew the quarterback would not succeed, and were stuck with them. This year is unique because of the shortened off season combined with bringing in a new offense. A veteran free agent does not improve the team, he just takes snaps away from Dalton. Because Dalton is a second round pick, he can be replaced as quarterback of the future next year, but I think giving him the chance to compete to start with Jordan Palmer and LeFevour lets us know if he should be the quarterback of the future, or if we should continue to look. I am not against bringing in a free agent to compete if Dalton is not ready, but we should cahse one with the expectaion that he sart for a year.

The more I think about it, the more I believe Andy Dalton should start this year. There are two obvious possibilities if Dalton starts.

1. The Bengals win

2. The Bengals lose

Now I agree, the Bengals may do better if we bring in a veteran quarterback. But, I ask what does an 8-8 season with a veteran quarterback accomplish? Nothing really.

If Dalton starts and the Bengals win, then mission accomplished we have our quarterback.

My Offseason Thoughts

jim0ijk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:04:21 -0000

My entire offseason thought process changed on one play in the San Diego game. It was a deep pass late in the third quarter. With 7:11 left to play in the third quarter, Palmer threw deep. It was incomplete maybe 5 yards beyond Andre Caldwell's reach, 65 yards or so down field. Until that throw my thought was we could trade Palmer and Chad and maybe pick up 2 3rd or 4th round picks. That throw made me rethink all my assumptions about Palmer's dead arm. It helped me understand Palmers poor QB play between the Chicago game where he had a 146.7 rating and the Chargers game when he had a 157.2 rating. Two games with nine passing TDs that bookend 23 games with 28 touchdowns to 24 Interceptions. The contrast is so stark it hurts the eyes. The Bears game was Chris Henry's last full game. The San Diego game was the first without TO. In those two games we had a deep passing attack. I had thought Palmer's arm was dead. He had completed some deep passes, but they always seemed short. TO and Chad had to pull up and that gave the coverage time to adjust. That throw made me realize our top two receivers were now slow. Carson's arm isn't dead, he has been trying to put touch on his deep passes because our receivers can't run under them, can't adjust to them as they need to. Palmer needed to put his passes at the exact right spot or TO wouldn't catch them. Simpson and Caldwell can run under Palmer's passes, as Henry did. That's what made Cincinnati's passing game so dangerous early last year. The Bengals passing game was broken along with Henry's arm. We didn't need aging stars like Coles and TO, we needed young guys who are hungry and can run and catch. It looks like the Bengals will bring back Chad, but I think that they will have a good set of receivers in Chad, Simpson, Caldwell and Shipley. Chad was still 26th in yards this year, despite TO's shadow. Simpson finished the year with 120 yards a game his last 2. Caldwell had 90 yards a game his last three. Shipley was second among rookies in catches. Gresham looks to be our TE for years, and Coffman finally showed something. Our running game was better with the addition of Pressley.

I say all of that to preface my evaluations of our needs. Since I now think that Palmer remains our QB, there are only 6 possible picks I see with the 4th pick. De'Quan Bowers, Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley, Voin Miller, and AJ Green.

That said I rate our needs in this order: LG, Safety, LB (SLB or MLB), RG, RT, DE, WR, DT, RB, CB.

Offense:

QB: As I said above, I think Palmer's arm was hidden by lack of receiver speed. Since starting QB is not an immediate need, I would like to see what Lefevour can do rather than bring in another. He was highly rated in the Draft, but fell partly because of his decision not to throw at the combine.

RB: I think Benson has some good years left in him. Scott and Leonard fill niches, and Peerman has looked adequate as Benson's back-up. I can't see a RB as a need for a 4th round or higher pick, and I don't think we get better than Peerman and Scott after that, but we should draft a PS player or sign a highly prized rookie free agent.

FB: I think Pressley is good and nothing more than a rookie free agent should be considered.

WR: If Chad stays we need a new project receiver that can be taken in later rounds. If Chad goes we need a polished possession receiver that can contribute to go with the project.

TE: We could use a blocking TE to replace Kelly and contribute on teams, but not until the late rounds. Gresham is a star in the making and Coffman looks ready to be his back-up. (Please stop using TEs as FBs, That is stupid. IF you want a FB, carry a FB.)

LT: Whitworth should go to the Pro-bowl and Collins has always looked solid in his place.

LG: This is the position that could be most improved in the draft. Undrafted guys are fine as back-ups but this position should be addressed in the second round, third at the latest.

C: I don't really have anything to say at center.

RG: If Otis Hudson is ready he should start, Williams has been a great player for us but his time is done. If Smith can play Guard and stay healthy this is no longer a need.

RT: Smith is our most talented lineman and needs to stay healthy; Collins finished the season well as a starter and could compete this year. We could use a better back-up than Roland.

Defense:

DE: I know a lot of people dislike Geathers, but I like him on running downs. Dunlop could be a star on the other side, and MJ has great aptitude at knocking down passes. I could definitely stick with a DE line-up of Geathers, Dunlop, MJ and Fanene, but 4th round or later talent would be nice for depth.

DT: I know Fairley has looked great this season, but I think Atkins is the proverbial bird in the hand in comparison. Sims and Peko can hold the line to allow the LB to make tackles as cover 2 tackles should. McDonald showed enough to me to be our 4th DT, but more depth is always nice.

WLB: I am not a huge Rivers fan, but the combination of Rivers and Brandon Johnson may be the deepest position on the team. Johnson must be resigned.

MLB: Rey is not ready, Muckleroy may be the next Dhani Jones. He played well on teams and I would like to see him get some snaps.

SLB: If Rey is ready to move inside, then I think we need a new SLB.

CB: More depth is always nice, but J-Jo must be resigned. I am nervous about our injuries at CB this year, and you can never have too many.

Safety: I like our safeties except for injury. I think Crocker's ship has sailed. Patrick Peterson may project as a better Safety that CB, and we could use safety who can cover.

Three Draft Scenarios:

Most preferred: Take Robert Quinn or Von Miller in the First round in the mold of David Pollack. This is even better if we can trade back 2-3 spots to allow someone to take a QB. Then move Rey to MLB, Draft a LG in the second, a Safety in the third then for depth.

Second Choice: Draft Peterson as the defensive center piece as a safety and provide insurance if J-JO or Hall walks. Take a LG in the second and draft for depth the rest of the way with an eye towards LBs.

Third Choice: Take Fairley or Bowers whose pressure will make the entire defense better. Then Draft a LG in the second, a Safety in the third, then for depth with an eye toward LB.

Palmer for QB

jim0ijk — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 22:23:33 -0000

I believe that Palmer will lead us to our 3rd play-off appearance this year. I believe he will get at least one play-off win. I still hold out hope that we will win the Super bowl, but even if we do not I do not see a better QB who is available to lead us.

Since 1998, there have been 34 QBs taken in the first round. Six of them have a better career rating than Palmer. These are *Aaron Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, *Pennington and *Culpepper. Thirteen are Busts because they did not last with their original teams nor are they starting anywhere else. These are Leaf,* McNown, #Akili Smith, Couch, Harrington, Carr, *Grossman, *Boller, *Leftwich, *Losman, Leinert, *Quinn, and Russell. One is #Palmer. The rest fall into three categories: undetermined, potential franchise QBs, or they are getting a second chance with another team. I list undetermined as Bradford, *Tebow, Stafford, Sanchez, *Freeman, Alex Smith, and Vince Young. McNabb, *Campbell, Cutler, and Vick are getting a second chance, while *Flacco, Ryan, and Eli Manning seem to be franchise QBs who do not have a career rating higher than Palmer does. Incidentally, Plamer’s rating last year was better than Ryan’s but below Flacco and Manning.

I admit there are other ways to get a QB. Of the 15 QB’s who had a better rating than Palmer last year, 7 were not drafted in the first round, but these QBs have a much lower success rate than the 16% that were drafted in the first round and were better than Palmer.

Of the 9 who are better for their career or were better last year, 2 are out of the league, and 6 were unavailable when the Bengals drafted that year. The only QBs we missed out on that would still be on the team is Aaron Rodgers, a player that almost every team missed on, and Flacco, whose career rating is lower than Palmer’s, his rating this year is lower than Palmer’s and he threw 4 picks against Cincinnati.

Many people on this board are saying we should drop Palmer and draft someone who is better next year. This seems simple but as we see above QB’s who are better than Palmer are rare. Further, to drop Palmer would probably also mean we lose Marvin Lewis. That puts drafting the QB of the future into the hands of one Mike Brown who brought us such winners as David Klinger and Akili Smith, who had the worst rating of the QBs drafted in the first round in the last 14 years. Even with a decent talent evaluator, there is only a 6% chance of drafting a QB who is better than Palmer is.

Some would argue that Palmer is done. He is old, beat up and scared.

He is old by league standards but not by QB standards. Peyton Manning did not have his first season with a QB rating over 100 until his 7th season as a starter. Palmer is currently in his 7th year as a starter. Further, there is a parallel in records a s a starter between Manning and Palmer Manning went 13-3 in his second year just as Palmer went 11-5. The Colts then slipped to 6-10 2 years later, as the Bengals went 4-11-1 3 years later. The Colts were 10-6 the next year then has had perennial 12 win seasons since. I am not saying that Palmer is Manning or that the Bengals are sure to mirror their success, but so far, even despite our offense we are very much in the play-off picture.

He has been beat up; however, I rewatched the preseason highlight footage from this year, and I do not think he is permanently damaged. Palmer was crisp. He threw the deep ball well to Owens against Philadelphia. He was accurate on short passes. He completed 70% of his passes. Granted he was not pressured much but that is not completely under his control.

I do think that Palmer is scared, but I think that can be overcome. I believe that late last season Carson lost faith in his receivers except Chad. That led to poor throws and poor decisions. This year, I think Carson started ok against NE. Once NE dropped their defense a bit in the second half, Carson got into a rhythm and started hitting the open receiver. Against Baltimore, he felt pressure and his receivers began to drop the ball again. I believe he immediately reverted to his thought process at the end of last season. I believe this is something he has to work through, but I believe he will be back.

The big complaint against Palmer is that he has not won a play-off game. Since Palmer became a starter, 20 other QBs have won a play-off game. It is frustrating that 8 of those QB’s have entered the league since Palmer, especially since 4 of them were available to us. These are Flacco, who Carson Palmer regularly beats, Tony Romo, who just got his first win last season, Rex Grossman, who is available if we want him (any takers?) and David Garrard (who I believe is available for a straight up trade, any takers?)

On Why the Offense could put up 2005 numbers while remaining Run Focused.

jim0ijk — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 19:36:46 -0000

Much to-do has been made of Brat’s lack of creativity limiting the offense. I am of the opinion that Brat has been limited by personnel since 2006. In 2007 there were no RBs, in 2008, there was no QB or Center, in 2009 there were no receivers (after Chris Henry Broke his arm).

First, I want to compare the 2005 rushing game to the 2009. We all know that run-first Bengals of 2009 had one of the best rushing seasons in franchise history, rushing for over 2000 total yards, which is pretty darn good. What you haven’t thought about is that in 2005, the pass happy Bengals rushed for .1 yards more per carry and were only outrun by 10 yards a game by the 2009 team. The 2005 team also had 6 more rushing TDs. I only say this to show that the 2010 team can be even better than 2009 in terms of rushing, because the running backs in 2010 will be better than 2009, they just need a better passing offense to open running lanes.

Running Backs: Benson is very similar to Rudi Johnson in production. Rudi was more durable and better on the goal line, but Benson is a much greater break-away threat. I call this a draw. Bernard Scott, however, is better than Chris Perry. He rushed for more yards in 2009 than Perry did in 2005. Perry contributed more than Scott in the passing game, but Scott as a rookie contributed far more than Perry did as a rookie and can be expected to do even more this year. In 2005, Carson Palmer was the team’s 3rd best rusher in 2005, and would have been in 2009 if not for Benson’s injury forcing Larry Johnson to play 3 games. But, Carson is a better runner now than in 05. Palmer, while still not a threat to break a long run, double his yards per carry, scored 3 TDs and ran for a few key first downs. He was an effective runner when the passing game was working. In 2005 there were no other rushers worth mentioning, because none had more than 10 carries, but in 2009, Brian Leonard came on as a force on 3rd downs and negated Perry’s yardage advantage over Scott. Brian Leonard makes on clutch plays, and if nothing else forces opposing defenses to plan for a 3rd option in the backfield. The 2010 team could run for even more yards

Offensive Line: The 2009 offensive line was not nearly as good as the 2005 line. The 2010 line will also probably not be as good as the 2005 line, but they could be close. The line developed into a cohesive unit which blocked well for the run, but could do better blocking for the pass. If healthy, Andre Smith could improve both pass and run blocking. The Right Tackle position gave up 10 sacks, 1/3 rd of the teams sack total in 2009. Andre Smith is should cut down that number significantly if not erase it all together. Additionally, Kyle Cook should be better after a year of calling the protection schemes. Finally, the 2010 line has better depth than any the Bengals have had at any time I can remember. Livings, Collins, and Roland all have starting experience, and Hudson has talent.

Tight End: Many people on the board have questioned Reggie Kelly’s value to the team, what has not been questioned is that Kelly is better than Coats, Foshi, and Roland combined at the TE position. That said, it is likely he will be backing up Gresham this year. That said, Coats and Foshi contributed more statistically in receiving yards than did Kelly and Schobel did in 2005. If Gresham is healthy, he could easily have the best season for a Bengals’ TE since Tony McGee’s 1995 campaign.

Wide Receiver: First, I want to highlight the lack of receivers last year, because many people are underestimating Chris Henry’s importance. In the first seven games, when Henry was healthy, the Bengals averaged 23 points a game, afterward; they averaged 16, a drop-off of 1 TD a game. However, if you subtract the 2 return TDs before the injury and the 3 afterward, the offense scored 21 points with Henry ( 3TDs a game) and 13 points without him (1TD and 2 FGs).

The Receivers this year should be better than they were last year. In fact this should be the Bengals best receiving corps ever, and could eclipse 2005. First for that to happen Chad has to be Chad, and Chad was not Chad the last 2 years, or was he? IN the first 8 games, when Henry was playing, Chad averaged 80 yards a game, afterward, which had that covered the full year he would have amassed around 1300 yards, his 5th best season. Next, assuming Bryant isn’t healthy early, TO has to be better than Chris Henry and TJ combined in 2005. That seems impossible since TO is old and TJ & Henry had 109 catches for 1378 yards and 13 TDs.

But I think it is possible. TO has equaled or exceeded 13 TDs seven times in his career. That catches are inconsequential in the end, but the yards are tough. TO has only exceeded 1378 yards twice, but in those years, he averaged 15 yards a catch. Last year, he still averaged 15.1 yards per catch and, in fact, he exceeded his career average per catch, while catching swill from Ryan Fitzpatrick who some of you may remember (the rest have blacked out that period). TO could have a career year, if you believe, as I do that Carson Palmer is as good or better than the other very good QB’s TO has had in Garcia, McNabb, and Romo. After that, Shipley, Simpson, Cosby, Bryant, and Caldwell just have to beat Kevin Walter’s and Kelly Washington’s 30 catches for 300 yards and 2 TDs, but Caldwell exceeded that last year.

QB: I believe that a healthy Palmer with weapons in 2009 should have his best year. He has been consistent when healthy with weapons from 2005-2007, except for extra INTs in 2007 due largely to last minute failed heroics.

The Offense is primed to be best Bengals offense ever, eclipsing 2005 and even 1988’s 28 points and 379 yards a game. Combined with a top 5 defense. We may last the last 30 seconds and finally get the SB monkey off our back and return to respectability.

Thanks for taking the time to read.

Jim

Bengals Draft trends

jim0ijk — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 21:30:49 -0000

When mocking drafts, too many analysts look more at need than trends. Draft trends will tell you a lot about who a team wil draft.

I take, as an exampleand as an aside, the Oakland raiders. The Raiders like a big arm to throw deep to fast receivers. That is why it was predictable that The Raiders took Jamarcus Russell to throw to Heyward Bey.

When looking at the Bengals we must look at who they have drafted during the Marvin Lewis Regime. I have also considered Bengals needs, and free agent signings, but that is less important than drafting trends. As I see it, Marvin Lewis' priorities are: QB, Offensive Tackle, Cornerback. Linebacker, Guard, Runningback, Wide Receiver, Defensive End, Safety, Defensive Tackle, TE/FB, and kickers in that order. I will caveat that I do not have enough data, in my opinion, to correctly judge WR, TE and FB.

My evidence is this. Marvin used his first pick, and the first overall pick on his starting QB. His second highest pick was Andre Smith instead of Michael Crabtree when both tackle and WR were, in my opinion question Marks. He drafted his starting CBs in he first round and one CB in the second, of 6 total drafted. He drafted Keith Rivers instead of moving up to take Sedrick ellis. Further he has drafted 4 linebackers in the first 2 rounds and no DT before the 3rd, and 10 linebackers overall vice 7 DTs. He has drafted 2 starting Left Guards in the second round, everyttime ther was a need and a pick available. He has taken 2 running backs in the second round, of 3 total taken, again every time there was need, he used a high pick. He has taken 10 WR in 7 Drafts including 4 in the fisrt 3 rounds. He has taken 2 DE in the first 3 rounds, and 5 overall. He has taken 7 DTs in 7 years vs 2 FB, and 2 TE, however, he brought in starters at both TE and FB early in his tenure, so the need has been very low. He has drafted one punter.

I see the Bengals needs as WR, TE, G, Safety then depth at every position except punter in that order.

Based on this I expect The bengals will Draft a LB in the firdst round if the right one is available, either a SLB or MLB to back up the first year, then start.

If not, or if Michael Johnson will move to SLB (watch video or 2009 rookie camp), the Bengals will probably use their first round pick on a guard.

I could also see a WR, safety, or TE (Moeaki from Iowa is the only one I think they might take in the first round as he is the most complete) in the first round, and a combination of 3 or 5 of these based on comp picks and the very real potential to trade down.

I also argue that if you remove injury, Marvin Lewis has drafted very well. Four of the six 1st round picks have contributed. Chris Perry is the counter arguement, and he did not contribute as the starting RB, but only in '05 as the complimentary back. Andre Smith should start next year, he would have started this year had he not held out. Most teams would be happy with this sucess rate. Cincinnati Bengals The second round has not been as good (but should not be expected to be), with Odell Thurman being a bad risk, and Jerome Simpson a bust in the making ( I know most would say a bust, but I have looked at every 1,000 yard receiver this year and the true break out players Miles Austin and Sidney Rice did not contribute in their first 2 years.) Kewan Ratliff did not pan out, 4 of 7 started this year for their team. In the thrid and 4th round, most of his picks have contributed. Jeremi Johnson, Domato Peko, Robert Geathers, Landon Johnson, Stacy Andrews and Chris Henry all contributed, and several also contributed a comp draft pick when they left. Caldwell is on pace to have a 800 yrad year next year if he continues to develop on the normal trend for WR. Michael Johnson contributed nicely, leaving only Coffman as a true Question mark. I think that is good value. The last 3 rounds have been used for depth with a few gems found, notably Fanene, Huber, Ndukwe, and Brenard Scott.

When mocking drafts, too many analysts look more at need than trends. Draft trends will tell you a lot about who a team wil draft.

I see the Bengals needs as WR, TE, G, Safety then depth at every position except punter in that order.

Based on this I expect The bengals will Draft a LB in the firdst round if the right one is available, either a SLB or MLB to back up the first year, then start.

If not, or if Michael Johnson will move to SLB (watch video or 2009 rookie camp), the Bengals will probably use their first round pick on a guard.