The way I see it, we have about 4 possibilities of bowl games, 2 of which seem to be out of the Utes control.  So here are the factors, according to me, that will be determinative in our success or failure. 

I realistically think the National Championship will be between Oregon and the SEC Champion (Assuming that champion comes from the SEC West), and no matter how dominant Utah plays, I don't think we would get the nod over any of those teams. 

Ultimately, I give Utah about a 10% chance of playing in the NCG.  About a 50% chance of beating TCU, about a 40% chance of going undefeated (Note that this includes the TCU game - So it's a subset of the 50%), and about a 25% chance of everything else working out to make a 12-0 Utah team finish 2nd in the BCS polls.  It's unlikely, and I haven't even done the math, but it seems that all the math adds up to about 10% chance. 

Just did the math.  Exactly 10% chance based on those assumptions.

40% x 25% = 10% -- Easy enough. 

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Alabama.  They are #8, with 4 ranked teams coming up on the schedule, including 2 of the top 10 BCS teams (Auburn and LSU).  If they win out, I think they have a clear shot at the national championship. 

Oklahoma and Oregon probably still get it if they are undefeated, but I don't think anyone else on that list gets in over them, even if Mizzo wins out (Not gonna happen either). 

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BSU fans are some of the cockiest, most in your face, fans I have ever seen.  I have rarely seen fans so in your face, both on camera and in person, and they will let you know that BSU is the #1 team in the country, and dare you to prove otherwise.  And for a while, I tried. 

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