SB Nation User Blog: jimbo2psu

Everyone take a deep breath!

jimbo2psu — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:19:39 -0000

I notice a mountain of skepticism coming from our most loyal BSD readers this week after the game preview post. 9 guys predicting MSU to win in the comments, vs. 8 for the good guys. Where's the love??? True, we had 2 make-or-break games this season, and we got broke both times, at home. True, our special teams looks like the Washington Generals against whatever competition we've come against. But let's not forget that our team has still has some dominant performers capable of taking over a game against lesser talented teams. One of my favorite posts each week was the statistical comparisons, but I didn't see it this week, so here are a few of the major matchups I looked up while I was at work today, between brief moments of productivity (games against FCS teams not included). I'm hoping this will get something of a collective deep breath out of the BSD community.

I heard their D-line was kinda awsum?

Michigan State in Big Ten games: 19 sacks

Penn State in Big Ten games: 19 sacks

But but but...our O-line SUX!!!!

Michigan State sacks allowed vs. FBS opponents: 12

Penn State sacks allowed vs. FBS opponents: 12

So the lines should be a wash, right??? Maybe not.

Michigan State 100-yard rushing performances: 1. 1! All season they've had 1 guy go over 100 yards.

Penn State 100-yard rushing performances: 6 (2 came against Illinois, and almost a 3rd)

Hey isn't their quarterback good though! He could slice us apart!!!

Michigan State 300-yard passing performances: 1 (Nichol and Cousins both hit 200 against Wisc though, so call it 2)

Penn State 300-yard passing performances: 1

Moral of the story: Penn State has performed better than Michigan State in almost every measurable offensive and defensive statistical category this season. We've been more consistent, more productive, less penalized, better. One last nugget: Michigan State has also allowed 4 quarterbacks to pass for 300 on them, and another for 291. Only Chappell of Indiana has done that against Penn State this year (298 last week).

Hey! What about that special teams thing? That wouldn't have supported the conclusion I came to before looking up all these other stats, so I skipped it. LET'S GO STATE!!!! HAAAAAAATEEE DANTONIO!!

Alternate to Gameday Whiteout Idea

jimbo2psu — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:48:43 -0000

Probably way too late for this, but I see a couple problems with the Gameday Whiteout. First of all, there's no way this idea will get out to EVERYONE showing up at Gameday, especially Iowa fans who would never want to go along with it anyway. So people will show up with their own signs and it would be tough to convince them not to attempt to show the country their creativity. People would likely be pissed at someone telling them they "can't" show their signs for the entire show, creating kind of a conflicted atmosphere amongst PSU fans. The other bad thing about the Whiteout is that it will make any signs against PSU way more visible since these guys would not comply. Not sure if I have a complete solution to this, and maybe the Whiteout would look really cool anyway, but here's my thought. Convince people to flip their signs around to the blank side at the BEGINNING of Gameday and keep it like that until the first commercial break or so. That way, we can get the initial shock of white at the beginning of the show while everyone's watching, AND let everyone show their wordsmanship the rest of the way through. Thoughts???

People are starting to notice

jimbo2psu — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 14:31:35 -0000

Check out this article from rivals: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=904928

True, it's a lukewarm compliment to this year's team. But the write-up seems fair and everything written about the program before this season is painfully true. The Penn State Nittany Lion men's basketball team: 16-5 with an outside shot at the NCAA tournament going into February, and one of the six most pleasantly surprising teams in all of college basketball this year. I'll take it!

Spread HD analysis from a Penn State fan

jimbo2psu — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 16:13:00 -0000

Bumped...A solid response (with a little snark) to my piece on PSU's Spread HD offense. - Paragon

I recently read an article on this site titled simply "The Spread HD", that claimed "Instead of trying to break this offense down and all of its components I think it’s more important to see how PSU will match-up against USC’s Defense."

Really? In an article named after the Penn State offense we're still letting the USC defense dominate the discussion? If the article is supposed to be about PSU's offense then what better time to break down, oh I don't know, PSU's offense?!

The following is one fan's attempt at analyzing Penn State's offense from this past season.

By and large, Penn State will try to run the ball on you. You can safely say that about any Penn State team in history and this year has been no different. Our offensive line consists of 3 first-team All Big Ten guys (including the Rimington Award Winner), 1 second-teamer, and one honorable mention. True, the line hasn't given up many sacks but has struggled at times providing ample time on passing downs. They earned their stripes running the football, and they take a lot of pride in bulldozing and road-grading. All receivers are also excellent blockers, led by Derrick Williams in that department. It's obvious Penn State spends a lot of practice time on stalk-blocking with their receivers.

Penn State has passed most effectively this season through play-action and on the early downs when the threat of the run kept defenses honest. The best way to beat Penn State, in my opinion, is to commit to stopping the run because the pass generally won't kill you, especially when you know it's coming. At times this season, Penn State has tried to force the pass when it hasn't been necessary, to results that range from decent to disastrous. The best example of this is probably when in our first series of the Iowa game (our only loss), we opened with 3 pass plays that resulted in inc, inc, fumble, punt from our own end zone.

The PSU names you'll hear on New Year's Day:

Darryl Clark: A stud when he has time to throw. Has a habit of getting excited and missing high early in the game, which has been a problem especially in routes over the middle. In general an accurate passer that has good chemistry with experienced senior receiving corps. Can shake a little bit and pick up a first down with his legs on occasion, and he's not afraid to take off, but would rather use his legs to buy time to find the open receiver. Think more in the style of Ben Roethlisberger and less Juice Williams/Michael Vick.
Evan Royster: Quietly put together a great season, and is arguably the most important piece to the Penn State offensive puzzle. Vision is easily Royster's best quality as a back. There have been countless times when he has found 4, 5, 6 yards out of a tiny crease and made things easier for Penn State on 3rd down. He's best used between the tackles because of this ability, and doesn't have great breakaway speed or prolific dance moves on the outside.
Stephon Green: I hate the obligatory "thunder-and-lightning" expression used to describe every running back tandem these days, but Green is more lightning than thunder for sure. He has a ton of speed and not much else, and it's been frustrating at times to see him bang into the line at full speed for 2-3 yards instead of being patient, waiting for a hole to develop, making one cut and then taking off. He's a redshirt freshman and has some room to grow, but has been very effective on screens and sweeps throughout the season and can gash you for a big gainer periodically.
Derrick Williams: This guy has been the heart and soul of Penn State this season. Dynamic playmaker that lines up all over the field, he needs to be accounted for on every play because he can hurt you from anywhere. Lines up in the backfield often, runs the sweep, loves the wheel route and has scored several times on it, can go over the middle or take it deep. Has played QB here and there in the Wildcat formation, and has actually completed a couple passes. Was a QB in high school and has lobbied to play the position at Penn State in the last couple years to no avail (would have been nice when Morelli was back there looking like a blindfolded high schooler).
Jordan Norwood: Most sure-handed receiver on the roster. He's a tiny guy, probably no heavier than 165 lbs, but goes over the middle all the time and loves it. As a freshman in the Orange Bowl, he took a hit over the middle that looked like it knocked the life out of him, jumped right up and asked for seconds. One of the toughest guys on the team and a great 3rd down option. If Maualuga gets ahold of him the trainers will probably get on tv.
Deon Butler: Quietly became Penn State's all-time receptions leader this season. Has been a great deep threat his entire career, and also a great 3rd down option. Him and Norwood have been much more consistent pure receivers than Derrick Williams, but the "big 3" all have different strengths and seem to complement each other well.
Graham Zug: 4th receiver has proved a more than capable option this year, and Penn State has gone 4-wide often enough and has shown faith in him. Not anything all-conference worthy yet, but has potential and can hurt you. Also is the Divine Creator of the Universe according to Black Shoe Diaries. Before all things, there was Zug.
Brett Brackett: 6'6" target creates mismatches and is lined up at wide receiver but used as more of a glorified tight end. Used sparingly but has shown good hands.
Andrew Quarless/Mickey Shuler: You never really know who will show up at tight end for Penn State. Quarless seems to have more pure athletic ability, but has been in the dog house for stretches (due to general stupidity, underage drinking, etc). Shuler is a hard worker with very good hands and a good blocker. Neither is likely to hurt you too much in the passing game, but both can make a big catch here and there.

As stated earlier, Penn State has had the most success this season on the ground, and has had success through the air mostly when they've established themselves on the ground first. That being said, it's a pretty diverse running game, with Royster and Green running between the tackles, Green and Williams mostly taking the corner, and Clark taking what the defense gives him when the defense won't give him anything through the air. In short yardage, Royster is probably the best option because of his ability to turn nothing into a little bit.

This seems like a cop-out, and may be a little of my homerism coming through, but in my opinion Penn State hasn't been stopped all year. They've stopped themselves a couple of times. At Purdue in the first road game on the Big Ten schedule (always a major stumbling block of Paterno teams, usually because of Paterno's mandated ultra-conservative, win-with-defense gameplan in road openers), 20 points scored was a low-point. At Ohio State, the Penn State staff was happy to engage in a boring, defensive slugfest on the road (possibly to lull the crowd? I'm probably giving the staff too much credit there) against a freshman QB, and the freshman QB made a game-breaking mistake. At Iowa they got cute and it cost them a shot at the national title game. They came out throwing the ball and sucked, and up by 2 with a few minutes left in the game threw over the middle for an interception that led to Iowa's game-winning drive when running the ball, eating clock and pinning Iowa deep would have served them better.

Here's the fun part. Penn State hasn't faced a defense as fast and ferocious as USC's this year. They're both going to bring it. Both teams had something bigger on their minds this season but both teams will bring their A game to the Rose Bowl. I think this game will be won on 3rd down, and a lot of it will depend on how USC's linebackers can cover. Penn State probably won't get big chunks on the ground in the early downs, but very well could get enough to set up 3rd-and-manageable. When that happens, look for Penn State to spread you out and hope to find a mismatch in coverage somewhere. If USC goes man-to-man (which I hear is not common anyway), Penn State probably has too many capable guys to be consistently stopped. Going with a soft zone is probably not the best option either, because Penn State is full of quick pesky guys that are very good at finding the holes in zones. I'd say the best bet for USC is to blitz early and often. Bring the pressure, take Darryl Clark out of the game because he can be rattled by pressure and hasn't faced a ton of it this year. If you can slow down the running game and pressure Clark, Penn State will have a very tough time getting points on the board despite the considerable advantage in net punting/punt returns and penalties.

Oh and, be nice to our quarterback. Our backup just transferred before the Rose Bowl....

ESPN Bowl Playoff Simulation

jimbo2psu — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 18:47:34 -0000

I just ran a bunch of simulations based on different rankings on ESPN's Playoff Simulation page, powered by Accuscore, and found it to be pretty interesting. Here are the average percentage chance we'd have against top FBS teams according to Accuscore on the ESPN page:

vs. #1 Oklahoma: 27% chance of victory
vs. #2 Florida: 20%
vs. #3 Texas: 36%
vs. #4 Alabama: 39%
vs. #5 USC: 36%
vs. #6 Utah: 68%
vs. #7 Texas Tech: 54%
vs. #9 Boise State: 68%
vs. #10 Ohio State: 61%
vs. #11 TCU: 59%
vs. #12 Cincinnati: 81%
vs. #13 Oklahoma State: 48%
vs. #14 Georgia Tech: 75%
vs. #15 Georgia: 61%
vs. #16 BYU: 77%

Crazy to me that we would be (though only slightly) an underdog to Oklahoma State.

Also, interesting Bowl matchups:

Northwestern 28% vs. Missouri
Michigan State 29% vs. Georgia
Ohio State 23% vs. Texas
Oklahoma/Florida 50/50
Utah 21% vs. Alabama

Thoughts?

Living in the USC world

jimbo2psu — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:14:07 -0000

Throughout the last week or so, I have heard nothing from the USC camp but excuses as to why they are so unbelievably talented, so deserving of a title shot, so embarrassed to be degraded by playing another "Slow-10" team in the Rose Bowl, etc. Here's the thing, the sports world DOES NOT EXIST SOLELY BASED ON TALENT! This is obvious to most that will read this post, but I think most USC faithful can use a reminder

So, as a reminder to USC and everyone else, here is a hugely incomplete list from the top of my head showing what may be different about the sports world if USC had their way, and the sports world were based on talent and potential alone (I should note beforehand that I'm a baseball fan first, so sorry that most of these will probably be baseball-heavy).

Sports movies that never would have been made:

Hoosiers
Rudy
The Rookie
Rookie of the Year
any Rocky movies
The Bad News Bears
Major League
Mighty Ducks
Cool Runnings

Champions that never would have been crowned:

1969 New York Mets
1997 Diamondbacks
1985 Villanova Wildcats
2007 New York Giants
1980 United States hockey team
2004 Whoever won gold in Olympic basketball
1986 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Notable sports players that would (or might someday) be in the Hall of Fame:

Doc Gooden
Darryl Strawberry
Len Bias
Bo Jackson
Michael Vick (or at least he would still have a job at the moment)
Ricky Williams
Happy Gilmore
Ki-Jana Carter
Vince Young
LaVar Arrington

In this world, sports games themselves would be replaced with foul shooting contests, 40-yard dash times, skills competitions, Wonderlic scores, shoe sizes, pedigree, experience and talk.

Over here in the slow east, we still believe in showing up and winning with hard work AND talent. So bring on those asses. We'll play them in their own backyard.

Am I the first one?

jimbo2psu — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:27:14 -0000

I just noticed this on espn.com's front page, the very first thing that jumps out at you from the worldwide leader's website: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&page=dash0811&sportCat=ncf

It sickens me mostly because I'm a Penn State fan, and the thought that a nationally known writer gets so much joy out of my favorite team's title hopes ending just seems wrong. He's jumping around and dancing like an idiot over Penn State's loss like he just won $1000000.

It sickens me that he calls the Big Ten "overmatched, overrated and outdated". And it especially pisses me off that after talking like that, he goes on to talk about the "big boy leagues" like we're the f'n Moutain West or something.

It pisses me off again that he calls Michigan State the one "overachiever" of the Big Ten, despite admittedly only knowing that the preseason top 3 of the conference included neither Penn State nor Michigan State.

It pisses me off that, even if we beat Michigan State, it will go largely unnoticed by this idiot and other even though he just named them the overachiever of the league.

Sorry for the repetition, because I know we just got done blasting Forde last week (with a huge assist from the Iowa blog), but I just saw this and I had to vent. I probably should've seen this article coming anyway....

The night Penn State was too country for Terrelle Pryor

jimbo2psu — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:03:00 -0000

There was so much good about last night it's hard for me to take it all in. Two gutsy, tough, prideful football teams in an absolute slobberknocker of a game. Two outstanding coaches that got 100% effort from their teams for the entire game. And one Penn State victory. Take nothing away from Ohio State because they gave us everything they had and it was almost enough. But take nothing away from Penn State either.

They were the better team tonight, just as they have been the better team every single time they've stepped onto the field this season.

What I liked best about the Ohio State game is that we just lined up and smacked them around and won the game at the line of scrimmage. We didn't get too cute and we didn't do anything gimmicky; we just outmuscled and outplayed them. Wins like this are what Penn State was built on and it's very nice to know that with the Spread HD, and with more and more teams all over the country slinging the ball like a hot potato, that Penn State still values blocking, tackling, and hitting, the philosophy that made Penn State great and perhaps the same thing that made one Terrelle Pryor famously claim that Penn State was "too country" for him.

The most ironic thing of all, to me at least, is that I always think of the Big Ten as a mid-western, corn-eating, bruiseball, smash mouth kind of conference. It has always been a "country" conference hasn't it? If that's not what Terrelle Pryor wanted, he shouldn't have attended Penn State, Michigan or Ohio State or anyone else in this conference. Since he chose Ohio State though, I bet he woke up with a headache this morning. Here's to hoping he has plenty of nights like last night for the next 4 years.

And to anyone with an AP vote: please think twice before you write off this entire conference. With the latest victory Penn State has proven they can beat you any way you want to play. They can win at home and on the road, in a shootout (Illinois) or in a grind-it-out slugfest (Ohio State). They can win with offense, defense and special teams, and most of the time with all three. Voters HAVE TO start noticing this. There is no glaring weakness on this team at all except that it hasn't played against the toughest of schedules. Well, there is still one game on the schedule that hasn't been decided yet, and if the voters doubt how we would do against top-notch competition there is only one thing to do: put us up against this top-notch competition!

I'm not going to say how disappointing or unfair it would be to keep an undefeated Penn State out of the title game because this may be Joe Paterno's last shot at it, or because he has been slighted so many times in the past with undefeated teams. Paterno wouldn't want a sympathy invite, anyway. It's just that we deserve to be there because of our play and for no other reason. We still have some work to do to get there of course, but I have no doubt that Joe Paterno and the coaching staff as well as the leaders on the team will keep their heads about them and keep working hard every day for the goal they have in mind. Because Penn State is just too country to look ahead to the bright lights of what may lay ahead.

Fun with statistics

jimbo2psu — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:46:38 -0000

I have seen a lot of talk in the last couple days about Big Ten championships and National Title contention, and I have to agree that I'm as excited as anyone about what's happened so far this year. After Saturday's win I'll admit I had one hand on the crazy straw and one hand on the refrigerator door, eyeing up the Kool-Aid...but before I go completely insane, here is some sobering statistical analysis...

DISCLAIMER: I expect this post to be boring to many (most) and I realize I'm a nerd. Try to stay awake. This could be informational.

To be favored in a game, your chances of winning are predicted to be over 50%, nothing ground-breaking there. And Penn State has 7 to go in this regular season. We could well be favored in every game from here on out, but how far over 50% are our chances in each remaining game? For starters, let's blindly say we have a 70% chance of victory in each individual game left this year:

Our chances to run the table are then 0.7^7 (0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7, one for each remaining game), or 0.082. Using this logic, we have an 8.2% chance of running the table and (obviously) a 91.8% chance of going down to somebody. Assuming a national title game appearance is a lock if we go undefeated (it isn't, but it's probably close) and that game would be a toss-up, our chances of bringing home the crystal football are 4.1%.

This simplifies things quite a bit, of course, because we have a greater chance of losing on the road to a Wisconsin or Ohio State than at home to Indiana. If anyone wants to get really techinical, you could predict what you think the line will be for each of our remaining games, then do some research to see what the success rate has been in the recent past based on that spread. But, using an easy formula like this you can see that our chances are not great for a national title game appearance.

I don't mean to be a total doom-and-gloom guy, just trying to offer some perspective, and here's some more: USC and Texas were considered head-and-shoulders above their competition in 2005 but even still, running the table as preseason #1 and #2 was a once-in-a-lifetime event, no matter how much more talented they were than their competition along the way. Consider this: even if you said USC would beat each of their opponents 9 out of 10 times in 2005 (a reasonable assumption?), that leaves them with a 0.9^12 = 28.2% chance of running the table. Saying the same for Texas that year, we need this 90% chance to hold for 24 games, or 0.9^24 = 8%. And that assumes USC and Texas were expected to dominate each and every team on their schedules that year. The moral of the story? THIS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STUFF IS HARD!!!! It's hard to get there! It's even harder to win!!! And, get this: (as much as I HATE tOSU) It's WAY harder to get to two title games in a row and lose both than it is to get to one and win!!!

IMPORTANT PARAGRAPH: At this point, Penn State has the best shot of winning the Big Ten, statistically speaking. PSU will be favored this week against Purdue, and if victorious, again next week at Wisconsin. If I had to put money on anyone to win the conference right now, my money would be on Penn State...but I'm smart enough not to put money on it. The moral of the story? It's awesome to dream, and I'm as much a dreamer as anyone, but realistically we have a LONG way to go. Buckle up. It's going to get bumpy. There are twists and turns. Oh and, no Kool-Aid on the bus.