Or at least one gets that idea from this tweet from Goold.

http://twitter.com/#!/dgoold/status/126767852756807680

Given Westbrook (a groundball pitcher) was added to the roster, I assume he is the fallback option for a start in TX.  I doubt Tony is even contemplating my radical suggestion that Lynn start a game in TX because Sanchez was left off the WS roster.  I don't think you add Westbrook (over Sanchez) to bolster the pen.  Westbrook is there as a potential starter.  Shall be interesting to see how it plays out.

Here are the WPA numbers for Teixeira and Holliday from Fangraphs.

Teixeira

2006 1.14

2007 2.36

2008 5.87

2009 3.58

Holliday

2006 2.37

2007 4.64

2008 4.87

2009 3.51

Boras said Holliday is this year's Teixeira.  Looking at the numbers, I might have to agree with him although I think Teixeira is the more valuable player.  Mark Teixeira got $180 mill over 8 years ($22.5 million per season).  It's a different economy out there and the Yankees may be the only team able to shell out that kind of money for a player like Teixeira.  Let's say Holliday and Teixeira are really 3.5 WPA players as opposed 5 WPA players and that the Yankees overpaid.  They always do.

All that said, one has to assume that Boras will find some GM to offer 6 years, $120 mill for Holliday.  If that's what Holliday is worth, what will Pujols get?  Let's put Pujols aside and focus on the Holliday issue in the short term.    If our current payroll sits at $70 mill and we add Holliday, that's $90 mill.  We still need 1 starting pitcher.  Assume we go bargain basement for $5 mill plus incentives on Smoltz.  Even if Dewitt is willing to swallow that $95 mill plus pill for 2010, how will he feel in 2011 when (with raises and arbitration) it swells to $100 mill?  Then we have to find money thereafter to resign Albert Pujols?  Even in the short term it gets troublesome.  No dry powder to pickup even a midlevel player at the deadline to give the team a boost for the stretch.

One way to easy the payroll pressure from signing Holliday would be in RF.  Trade Luddy and turn RF over to Craig / Mather / Jay.  You save $5 mill and now have wiggle room with payroll down the stretch.  If we don't sign Holliday, then one would assume they resign DeRosa and place him in LF as a stop gap.  I think arguments can be made on both sides of the issue.  Who would you rather have in the starting outfield: Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick?

p.s.  If option 1 is selected, the failsafe position (should the rookie platoon fail in RF) would be move Skip to right and plug Lugo in at 2B.

The thing that jumps out at me from today's Derrick Goold article (love the work DG is doing for the Post BTW)--

"Cardinals' definition of their approach has evolved from 'aggressive' to 'creative' and then later to 'opportunistic.'  To further illustrate their current tack Cardinals officials unpacked a familiar catchphrase: 'dry powder.'"

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/3357B8DB59222555862575290011339E?OpenDocument

My problem with how this has all unfolded is not the "opportunistic" approach per se.  Rather, it is that the club has been all over the board on its approach.  One example: they jumped the gun in extending Joel Pineiro after limited viewing of his wares (and to make matters worse, gave him a 2 year deal).  Then this year they decline to offer arbitration to Looper who was a Type B FA even though we have need of a starter.  Last year, the sandwich pick we got for Percival turned into starting pitcher Lance Lynn (a prototypical Duncan sinker baller).  I predict Lance runs up the Cards minor league system in 2009 barring injury.   The logical conclusion is that the Cards are hoarding money to make at least one FA play.  They tell the media they are going to be "aggressive".  Aggressive turned out to be Mark "I shot myself in the foot" Worrell for Khalil Greene.

In business, you thoughtfully settle on a strategy, implement the strategy, then alter your course to changing market conditions.  But you don't give up on the strategy until you have fully given it a chance to either succeed or fail.  There is value in knowing that first strategy does not fit the market before going on to the second strategy.

The best move JMo made last year was 1 year deal for Loshe during spring training.  It now appears that is the new strategy ... wait until after the big dollars are foolishly spent and then move in late to bargain shop.  Great strategy in this economy (given that the team has to be nervous about revenue going forward).  BUT JUST PICK ONE STRATEGY AND STICK WITH IT.  Current strategy--The Cards are bargain shoppers on the FA market who also look to trade from areas of surplus talent to fill holes.   See, not so hard.

I have not read this term used in discussion often on this board although opportunity cost has become trendy.  I think the concepts work together as an opportunity cost is neither good nor bad unless compared with marginal gain from a prospective transaction.  When adding player A, the marginal gain is the production the team receives from player A over the default option for the team had they not made the transaction.  The opportunity cost is that separate action prevented or forgone by acquiring player A.

Let's look at the proposed Fuentes FA acquisition.  The marginal gain is not how much better Fuentes makes our bullpen over last season.  The marginal gain is how much better will Fuentes be than the inhouse options of Perez, Motte, Kinney.  There is an argument that we are moving these three down a slot in the bullpen, thus, Fuentes is really  displacing a guy like Brad Thompson.  Reasonable minds can debate it but the marginal gain is the prospective bullpen with and without Fuentes.  I'm not a fantasy stat guy so I'll not debate win share and other metrics.

The opportunity cost is the lost 1st round draft pick and the player that the Cards could have acquired with the $10 mil annual salary going to Fuentes.  If I say this is Ben Sheets, you may retort that he will cost more than $10 million per season.  True but that is not the test.  If the Cards forgo signing Fuentes, it is possible they may find modest payroll savings at other positions to put them into a position to acquire Sheets.  For instance trading Rick Ankiel ($3 million) and replacing him with Rasmus (league minimum).  There is not a way for the Cards to wangle the cost savings to acquire both Fuentes and Sheets but I think they could find the money to land Sheets alone.  That's an opportunity cost.  Then calculate the marginal gain to the team of Sheets in your rotation versus the dumpster dive for a Dave Duncan reclamation project that will occur if we sign Fuentes.  Of course, it's possible JMo could pull another rabbit out of the hat as he did last season with the Lohse deal or signing Fuentes frees up McClellan to go to the pen.

Reasonable minds can differ on the facts but I think this has to be the analysis.  I'm sure most people on this board already make these assessments mentally when sizing up a deal ... but I wonder if guys like Strauss actually sit down and think about it.

For a number of years, TLR has been grating on me.  There is the Don LaRussa intimidating younger players on the team (example, B. Ryan last season).  There is the slavish devotion to left-righty matchups, the use of extremely small sample sizes to determine use of pinch hitters or spot starts, his occasional ridiculous jihads against the local press for preceived slights in their of him.  The list of personality quirks is endless.

.... but I came to a conclusion recently: as entertainment, I very much enjoy watching the LaRussa Cardinal teams.  My wife was born out of the country and is a reality TV queen.  She is now way into the Cardinals.  That's when it dawned on me--the LaRussa Cardinals are a long running reality show.  We have the tragic deaths of Daryl Kyle (drug use) and Josh Hancock (alcohol).  TLR's interesting DWI arrest--fell asleep with the car running and in gear at a red light.  The star who is a regular on the show--Sir Albert Pujols.  The stars who feuded with TLR and left--Edmonds and Rolen.  TLR always seems to have a wipping boy--A. Reyes.  He also seems to adopt a player as a son / mascot.  Before it was Taguchi.  As my wife pointed out the other night, Miles is TLR's new adopted son.  We have the nepotism story line--the struggling C. Duncan.  Dave Duncan--the consummate resurrector of disgarded pitchers, the magician at making starters out of relievers, and one of the hardest heads in the game of baseball who will attempt to jam a square peg in a round hole come hell or high water.

It's great theatre!  Really, I think a day will come when we have a manager who is mild mannered, always plays the correct percentages, and is a fair evaluator of talent.  I'm sure my wife will lose interest in such a team.  I'm sure to miss these LaRussa drama teams.

As much as I whined about the return of TLR for 2008 and his mucking up the roster with vets, I have to say that (so far) there are not a lot of personnel moves that I really have legitimate grounds to bellyache about ... won't stop me from complaining mind you.  Resigning Miles after non-tendering the little guy seems to be the biggest problem.  It cascades along the infield.  If Miles was gone and Ryan was working in at SS and 2B, we'd have room for a corner IF bat.  I don't know how long it's been since Joe Mather played 3B, but that kind of bat on the bench would be nice to exchange for Miles.  Heck, I'd take Freese on the bench in exchange for Miles.

But Miles is water under the roster bridge.  At least we jettisoned So Taguchi.  So here the Cards find themselves 41 games into the season and, after a hot start, are scuffling.  But they're only 1 game back @ 23-18.  On opening day, we all would have pleasantly hoisted a Budweiser if told this would be the Cards' record on 5-14.  But some problems are starting to rear their head.  Our bullpen, once thought of as a strength, is showing signs of collapse.  Izzy has been demoted.  The rest of the relievers have looked human.  The starters haven't been much better.  Loshe has regressed substantially after a hot start.  Write Clement off.  Write Mulder off.  For some reason, TLR & Dunc have written Anthony Reyes off.

Given that we are competitive this season to date, the question is what do we do to improve this team?  I know what would have happened if Uncle Walt were still the GM--he'd be looking to deal prospects to bring in more vets.  JMo ain't gonna play that game.  Hallelujah.  The path to improving the team going forward must appear clear to everyone not part of the two headed monster known as LaDuncan.  We finally have talent in the upper levels of our farm system.  The answer to the bullpen woes sits a few hundred miles down I-55 in Memphis.  Chris Perez was told he was coming to the show then, hours later, told to stay put.  Was there a tug of war between LaDuncan and JMo?  Did Papa Dewitt step in and side with LaDuncan?

I think the situation with Izzy in microcosm determines the course for this team.  Izzy should not be a Cardinal next season.  Springer is not a long term solution.  Franklin is getting by with smoke and mirrors.  C. Perez needs ML experience in 2008 to not only improve the club today but prepare him for a larger roll in 2009.  If the Cardinals insert Izzy back into the closer role while C. Perez continues to blow away minor league hitters, then LaDuncan will have their hands firmly on the rudder of the good ship SS Redbird.  If C. Perez is called to STL and slowly gets handed more responsibility as he shows he can handle it (ala McClellan), then we know JMo has finalized a palace coup and has command.  I'm pulling for you JMo.  We'll keep our eyes on the Izzy / C. Perez situation.

Anthony Reyes just raised his trade value substantially.  Mozeliak's instances that Reyes remain on the 25 man roster against the wishes LaDuncan has just paid dividends.  But there is really nowhere for Anthony Reyes to go in this organization.  As the injured starters (Pineiro, Mulder, Carpenter, Clement) come off the DL, current starters will be returned to the bullpen.  And then there is Josh Kinney.  Soon, current bullpen members will be voted off the island.  Reyes and McClellan are the obvious choices (both with options).  Gee, who gets more love from Duncan?  They both may have to go to Memphis in the first half of this year.

It just makes sense that the Cards will deal A. Rey early this season.  And isn't Colby Rasmus one of the three best OFers in the Cardinals organization right now?  C. Duncan can't stay healthy.  The big boy is a DH / 1B waiting to happen.  Let's say we package A. Rey and C Duncan.  What are we looking for in return?  My vote would be for a middle infielder who can start immediately.  Any thoughts on this topic?

I know there are comments on this topic in the main post today but it is pretty significant news so I hope it does not offend that I started a separate post on the topic.  As you probably know, Reyes made the 25 roster as a reliever:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/0CC52FE90F73636E86257418001216EB?OpenDocument

This despite Duncan correctly saying Reyes was not setup for the reliever roll.  How do you think was the conversation we between MO and TLR when the decision was made to set the 25 man?

TLR: I cannot abide by stench of straight bill.  Banish him to Memphis.

MO: No sir.  I cannot comply with your galant wishes.  Reyes is on the 25 man.  You shall play him sir.

TLR: Like hell I will Junior!  He can rot in the bullpen like a corpse left on the gallows.

MO: You are the manager and you decide who plays.  But I as the GM decide who is on the 25 man.  So there.

(MO then sticks out his tongue out at TLR.)

Reyes is absolutely unsuited to relief.  All I can figure is that they are trying to trade him and his perceived value may be higher as a guy off the 25 man versus someone down on the farm.

Curt Schilling has a bum shoulder.  The team doctors medically cleared him after last season, he signed a 1 year deal for $8 mill, and then, apparently it worsened.  Sound familiar?  The team doctors are prescribing rest then a strengthening program while a shoulder specialist (Dr. Morgan) says Schilling needs to go under the knife pronto if he is to pitch this season.  Sounds real familiar.  Can you say Mark Mulder?  What's interesting is that Schilling is publicly dis'ing the Boston team doctor.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/02/schilling_backs.html

And did you catch the elaborate prank pulled against the Phillies Kyle Kendrick?  They convinced the kid he had been traded to the Japan's "Yomiuri Giants" (the team does not exist).
http://www.mcall.com/sports/all-kendrickvideo0218,0,730095.story?track=rss

It's a minor league contract ... but I still don't trust TLR to give Juan a fair and balanced evaluation: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/5C9E01BF754FC855862573E50069DA42 ?OpenDocument

That is the problem with continually have the mindset that the team is in the hunt.  Tomorrow gets sacrificed for today.  We have a lot of young talent in the OF.  The Cards need to sort that talent out and see what they have.  Yes, the team can use a right handed power bat on the bench but Juan has had 128 ML ABs since 2003!  I just don't see this guy helping the Cards in any meaningful way.  Who do show the door so Juan makes the team?

Here's the link:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-02-01-mets-santana_N.htm

Obviously, even if the Cards had the prospects to land him, the team never would have coughed up this kinda coin over 6 years.  This sort of deal is out of our league for anyone not named Pujols.  How will other big market teams like the Cubs and Dodgers respond?  I think they'll both push up payroll.

I thought I had some grasp of the Mozeliak philosophy for this team after the early moves.  Pick up expensive option on Izzy.  Resign Springer, Pinero to short term deals.  Not splashy (at the time, looked overpriced) but signings do not hamper the team long term.  Check.  Jettison Taguchi, Miles, Edmonds.  Allow the team to get younger.  Check.  Sign Izturis to a short term deal to bolster middle infield.  Former gold glover who was available in the bargain bin.  Stop gap.  Check.  Shopped Rolen at player's request but pulled back when the package offered didn't meet the value he perceived for the player.  Check.  Signed Clement to an incentive laden deal with a club option.  If Clement is healthy, the team is not required to endure another round of the TLR/Duncan v. A. Reyes test of wills (they surely will crack the kid this year if more of the same ensues).  All reasonable moves so far.

He might have pandered a bit to TLR / Duncan with the Izzy and Springer signings (TLR's head pops when he doesn't have vets in the 9th and 8th inning slots) but, other than the expensive bullpen, all the moves follow reasonable pattern--gradually get the team younger while still maintaining the appearance of fielding a competitive team.

I was further encouraged by most of what I heard from the Bernie interview of Mozeliak on the radio a few days ago.  When asked (after landing Clement) whether he would go along with the TLR tradition of bringing to spring training a raft of starting pitchers on minor league deals, he said quite firmly "no".  When asked why, he replied, "to do so limits the opportunities for the guys you already have in our organization"  Hallelujah!  Music to my ears.  Tony craves gris for his player mind game, spring training mill.  It's his way of motivating the players.  But the downside is that you steal ST innings from true organizational prospects.  If our goal is to build from within rather than continually filling out the roster from the refuse bin, then Mozeliak should say "no" to the annual boat of ST refugees.  Good for him.

But in the closing moments of the interview, Bernie asked Mozeliak what his next moves were on the horizon.  His reply, "first off, we need to strengthen our utility position, then prepare for the arbitration cases."  Say what?  What utility hole pray tell do you need to fill?  Scott Spiezio @ corner IF.  Brendan Ryan @ middle IF.  We already have six outfielders for five positions.  What in the name of Stan Musial could Mozeliak be referring to?

Yesterday we found out.  Aaron Miles.  The guy who fought off the hotel room intruder at gun point.  He was thrown overboard but, inexplicably, found some way to scamper back onto the boat!  The only reasonable explanation is that TLR hates B. Ryan and, thus, could not abide the stench emanating from the reality that, as things pre-Miles signing stood, B. Ryan was almost guaranteed a spot on the 25 man.  Miles just displaced him.  Completely unreasonable signing.  Miles is nearly incapable of playing SS.  No pop in the bat.  No speed on the bases.  No upside.  Ryan is a solid SS.  Some speed on the bases (yes, can steal a base).  Might have an upside.  Might have some pop.  We just need a larger sample size to tell.    

So Mozeliak threw Tony a bone.  Miles is the bone.  Lord, I hope it stops there.

Here is the story from Goold: tiny URL.

There are quotes in Goold's article from DeWitt. Why tell the press Mozeliak is guaranteed a job with the new front office unless Mozeliak is being passed over the GM position? This looks more and more the way things are going. I am starting to believe that Mozeliak is TLR's man in the front office. Will rally the x-Jocketty personnel around him to form a faction? If so, DeWitt has just granted him immunity from getting voted off the island at tribal counsel. Brilliant.

Second thought. The Cards GM job looks less appealing by the moment. The new guy will be saddled with a strong-willed and powerful coach not of his choosing, the owner's handpicked scouting-minor league kahuna, and the former GM's right-hand man. They'll have to dump a long-term contract and lots of cash on Antonetti to get him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3064898

The other diary was well over 100 comments.  Cumbersome to scroll thru so I started another diary.  $6.5 mill per year ... not as bad as feared.

Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro

... not exactly a starting rotation that makes the opposition wet its shorts.  But we've had worse in STL.

What I just can't figure out is the organizational che the 2008 Cardinals are throwing out there.  A) Are we rebuilding?  B) Are we making a run for it?  C) Or is this a team built to be 500 which qualifies them to be in the hunt in the NL Central but mucked up with vets preventing any real room for growth as a team?

I fear C.  Maybe that is wants DeWitt anyway, a steady competitive team with small peaks and valleys.

I've been kicking around in my mind Bernie's La Russa v. DeWitt article--
http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bernies-extra-points/2007/10/la-russa-v-dewitt/

Interesting piece.  Interesting subject.  Bernie, in well reasoned fashion, lays out the argument for DeWitt to check his testicles, man up, and tell TLR that the organization is now committed to the moneyball / cyber system / grow from within methodology and, thus, TLR is not the man to lead the team under the new regime.  Fair enough position.  As Bernie put it, "La Russa isn't the right manager for this evolution, this revolution. It's almost as if DeWitt wants to have one foot in the future, and one foot in the past. C'mon, Bill. Be realistic. Make up your mind. Step up to the plate. You have to choose between the 'new' world or the old-school La Russa world."

Then in the very next paragraph, Bernie takes it all back: "But there is one way that all of this works... at least for 2008" ... hire John Mozeliak as the new GM and he can bridge the gap between the old and the new, between Luhnow and TLR.

Say what?  I thought you just said it had to be one or the other?  One never gets to eat his cake (i.e., screw the mistress) and have it too (i.e., keep your loving wife).  These things blow up inevitably.  Keeping TLR while committing the organization to the stat driven / grow from within strategy are incompatible goals.  A divorce is inevitable.  You might be able to keep it together for one more year ... but why bother?  The only possible rationale is that our team is close to going over top so give it one last shot.  But we don't have the pitching for one last shot in 2008.  If it is coming with this group of core players, 2008 is not the year IMHO because the replacement for Chris Carpenter is not there.  And Chris Carpenter, if he comes back at all, will not be Chris Carpenter in 2008 ... he'll be an impostor.

In my view the team needs one organizational philosophy that infuses the franchise top to bottom.  All rowers on the boat need to be rowing in the same direction and to the same beat.  TLR won't change.  Ergo, TLR has to go.  Man up DeWitt.  Pull the trigger.

Walt is out due to a difference of opinion with ownership over organizational philosophy, i.e., stat driven player development emphasis v. veteran ball club that primarily uses the farm system as an acquisition tool for vets.  Yeah, there was the power struggle / personality conflict but, at bottom, my view is that the Walt camp had a different opinion of how to build the team going forward than that espoused by ownership.  Walt's protege Bruce Manno is also out.

Now that DeWitt has thrown down the glove and unequivocally stated the organization's philosophy going forward, does the Dave Duncan pitch to contact philosophy still hold?  It's an important question because Duncan is still under contract for next year.  In years past, Duncan stood in the way of bringing a pitcher to the big club unless he had a sinker of some sort in his repetroir.  The pitch to contact philosophy was clearly entrenched throughout the Cards minor league system.  ElBirdo's interview with Adam Ottavino made this pretty clear if one need more evidence than statements from D. Duncan himself and Dyar Miller.

My personal opinion is that pitch to contact is a reclamation philosophy for vets who no longer have the stuff to be strikeout pitchers.  Younger pitchers with strikeout stuff should not be force fed the pitch to contact mantra.  It lessens their aggressiveness with hitters and fundamentally changes the way they approach hitters.  For player development, enhance what the pitcher brings to the table rather than forcing all starters into the two seam, pitch to contact box.

Bottom line: I'd don't see how Duncan comes back if he is told his way of doing things no longer applies to the minor league system.  Also, I don't see how the Cardinals really commit to player development 100% without chucking the pitch to contact mantra.  Dave Duncan has to go which means Tony has to go.

http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=475672&sid=823481887e206b0e5518ea3987df6282

I like the idea of taking a flier on a kid who is still young but has scuffled in his one shot at the show.  We clearly need more depth in the infield given Scott Rolen's health but I still think they need to play Brendan Ryan.

Who do you think gets the boot off the 25 man roster to add this kid?  Might this be the final nail in the Juan E coffin?  We'll have to send money with Juan E to dump him on another team.  Given that Bernie speculated in his last blog post that a few teams were interested in Juan, I can only assume that means he cleared waivers already.

Interesting interview of Dyar Miller about A. Reyes on local radio here in STL (590 the fan).  Excuse if someone has already posted.  They also touched on Dan Haren.  Hopefully not mischaracterizing Dyar's comments but here are a few of them:  

"We're a two seam sinker ball organization."

"Would be hard to get Anthony to develop sinker because of his arm action.  But Anthony can be effective throwing his four seamer down in the zone."

"Keisler has developed a sinker in Memphis and is winning with it."

http://www.kfns.com/vdDynamic/AudioBits/2-AudioBit3355.mp3

The Keisler comment scares me.  Would they move Keisler ahead of Reyes on the AAAA depth chart because he can throw a sinker?  Wouldn't surprise me.

In a piece in today's Post on the All-Star game, they have a segment of retrospection on the Mulder trade.  I found this quote from TLR especially telling:

>>La Russa, recalling that trade, said, "(Cardinals pitching coach) Dave Duncan and I have been together a long time and been friends for a long time and it's probably the closest we've ever come to having a disruptive relationship -- because he was very adamant that Dan be a part of St. Louis' future."<<

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/D31C9058753EF45D8625731400123240 ?OpenDocument

I've taken some shots at Dunc recently over his abhorence of young pitchers.  I'm very glad to hear that he fought against trading Danny Haren.

Sorry if someone has posted this already.  Nice human interest story on Brendan Ryan's callup.

http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=228&p=2&c=649099

-------------
"One-line diaries are prohibited on Viva El Birdos. Give your diary a bit more thought, then give it another shot."  Hum, interesting, didn't know that.

For those who did not hear the exchange between TLR and Bernie M. of the Post after TLR imperiously deigned not to take questions from any Post reporters after a tongue in cheeck article by Derrick Goold, here is a link to the audio:
http://kmox.com/pages/67880.php

Here is a link to the Goold story:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/3D9C787870A16102862572CA000E5C22 ?OpenDocument

My take is that TLR's actions were in very poor form.  He makes a very bad coaching decision (or multiple) that result in an ugly loss then refuses to take questions from the main reporters covering the team.

I don't get why you throw Looper in his first ML start against the Mets when the rotation could have been stacked to put Reyes in that slot.  Looper facing Beltran and Delgado (lefty power) ... doesn't look like the smart play.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/9D91F1A383FA8DD7862572AB00146E11 ?OpenDocument

Anybody else got a take on why this makes sense?