SB Nation User Blog: jjray

'stlcardinals' twitter list

jjray — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:59:07 -0000

'stlcardinals' twitter list

Twitter recently came out with a list feature to help group twitter accounts you follow by subject. I created one for the Cardinals and put in there Bernie M, Strauss, Goold, Luhnow, and vivaelbirdos. Open to suggestions for anyone else who tweets on the Cards.

Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick

jjray — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:48:13 -0000

Here are the WPA numbers for Teixeira and Holliday from Fangraphs.

Teixeira

2006 1.14

2007 2.36

2008 5.87

2009 3.58

Holliday

2006 2.37

2007 4.64

2008 4.87

2009 3.51

Boras said Holliday is this year's Teixeira. Looking at the numbers, I might have to agree with him although I think Teixeira is the more valuable player. Mark Teixeira got $180 mill over 8 years ($22.5 million per season). It's a different economy out there and the Yankees may be the only team able to shell out that kind of money for a player like Teixeira. Let's say Holliday and Teixeira are really 3.5 WPA players as opposed 5 WPA players and that the Yankees overpaid. They always do.

All that said, one has to assume that Boras will find some GM to offer 6 years, $120 mill for Holliday. If that's what Holliday is worth, what will Pujols get? Let's put Pujols aside and focus on the Holliday issue in the short term. If our current payroll sits at $70 mill and we add Holliday, that's $90 mill. We still need 1 starting pitcher. Assume we go bargain basement for $5 mill plus incentives on Smoltz. Even if Dewitt is willing to swallow that $95 mill plus pill for 2010, how will he feel in 2011 when (with raises and arbitration) it swells to $100 mill? Then we have to find money thereafter to resign Albert Pujols? Even in the short term it gets troublesome. No dry powder to pickup even a midlevel player at the deadline to give the team a boost for the stretch.

One way to easy the payroll pressure from signing Holliday would be in RF. Trade Luddy and turn RF over to Craig / Mather / Jay. You save $5 mill and now have wiggle room with payroll down the stretch. If we don't sign Holliday, then one would assume they resign DeRosa and place him in LF as a stop gap. I think arguments can be made on both sides of the issue. Who would you rather have in the starting outfield: Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick?

p.s. If option 1 is selected, the failsafe position (should the rookie platoon fail in RF) would be move Skip to right and plug Lugo in at 2B.

Anthony Reyes slotted to be Cleveland's 4th starter

jjray — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 20:58:05 -0000

Anthony Reyes slotted to be Cleveland's 4th starter

Although most of Cards nation probably does not care, I'm still an Anthony Reyes and hope he succeeds with Cleveland.

Dry Powder

jjray — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:12:41 -0000

The thing that jumps out at me from today's Derrick Goold article (love the work DG is doing for the Post BTW)--

"Cardinals' definition of their approach has evolved from 'aggressive' to 'creative' and then later to 'opportunistic.' To further illustrate their current tack Cardinals officials unpacked a familiar catchphrase: 'dry powder.'"

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/3357B8DB59222555862575290011339E?OpenDocument

My problem with how this has all unfolded is not the "opportunistic" approach per se. Rather, it is that the club has been all over the board on its approach. One example: they jumped the gun in extending Joel Pineiro after limited viewing of his wares (and to make matters worse, gave him a 2 year deal). Then this year they decline to offer arbitration to Looper who was a Type B FA even though we have need of a starter. Last year, the sandwich pick we got for Percival turned into starting pitcher Lance Lynn (a prototypical Duncan sinker baller). I predict Lance runs up the Cards minor league system in 2009 barring injury. The logical conclusion is that the Cards are hoarding money to make at least one FA play. They tell the media they are going to be "aggressive". Aggressive turned out to be Mark "I shot myself in the foot" Worrell for Khalil Greene.

In business, you thoughtfully settle on a strategy, implement the strategy, then alter your course to changing market conditions. But you don't give up on the strategy until you have fully given it a chance to either succeed or fail. There is value in knowing that first strategy does not fit the market before going on to the second strategy.

The best move JMo made last year was 1 year deal for Loshe during spring training. It now appears that is the new strategy ... wait until after the big dollars are foolishly spent and then move in late to bargain shop. Great strategy in this economy (given that the team has to be nervous about revenue going forward). BUT JUST PICK ONE STRATEGY AND STICK WITH IT. Current strategy--The Cards are bargain shoppers on the FA market who also look to trade from areas of surplus talent to fill holes. See, not so hard.

Marginal Gain

jjray — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 23:58:13 -0000

I have not read this term used in discussion often on this board although opportunity cost has become trendy. I think the concepts work together as an opportunity cost is neither good nor bad unless compared with marginal gain from a prospective transaction. When adding player A, the marginal gain is the production the team receives from player A over the default option for the team had they not made the transaction. The opportunity cost is that separate action prevented or forgone by acquiring player A.

Let's look at the proposed Fuentes FA acquisition. The marginal gain is not how much better Fuentes makes our bullpen over last season. The marginal gain is how much better will Fuentes be than the inhouse options of Perez, Motte, Kinney. There is an argument that we are moving these three down a slot in the bullpen, thus, Fuentes is really displacing a guy like Brad Thompson. Reasonable minds can debate it but the marginal gain is the prospective bullpen with and without Fuentes. I'm not a fantasy stat guy so I'll not debate win share and other metrics.

The opportunity cost is the lost 1st round draft pick and the player that the Cards could have acquired with the $10 mil annual salary going to Fuentes. If I say this is Ben Sheets, you may retort that he will cost more than $10 million per season. True but that is not the test. If the Cards forgo signing Fuentes, it is possible they may find modest payroll savings at other positions to put them into a position to acquire Sheets. For instance trading Rick Ankiel ($3 million) and replacing him with Rasmus (league minimum). There is not a way for the Cards to wangle the cost savings to acquire both Fuentes and Sheets but I think they could find the money to land Sheets alone. That's an opportunity cost. Then calculate the marginal gain to the team of Sheets in your rotation versus the dumpster dive for a Dave Duncan reclamation project that will occur if we sign Fuentes. Of course, it's possible JMo could pull another rabbit out of the hat as he did last season with the Lohse deal or signing Fuentes frees up McClellan to go to the pen.

Reasonable minds can differ on the facts but I think this has to be the analysis. I'm sure most people on this board already make these assessments mentally when sizing up a deal ... but I wonder if guys like Strauss actually sit down and think about it.

LaRussa, the reality show

jjray — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:15:16 -0000

For a number of years, TLR has been grating on me. There is the Don LaRussa intimidating younger players on the team (example, B. Ryan last season). There is the slavish devotion to left-righty matchups, the use of extremely small sample sizes to determine use of pinch hitters or spot starts, his occasional ridiculous jihads against the local press for preceived slights in their of him. The list of personality quirks is endless.

.... but I came to a conclusion recently: as entertainment, I very much enjoy watching the LaRussa Cardinal teams. My wife was born out of the country and is a reality TV queen. She is now way into the Cardinals. That's when it dawned on me--the LaRussa Cardinals are a long running reality show. We have the tragic deaths of Daryl Kyle (drug use) and Josh Hancock (alcohol). TLR's interesting DWI arrest--fell asleep with the car running and in gear at a red light. The star who is a regular on the show--Sir Albert Pujols. The stars who feuded with TLR and left--Edmonds and Rolen. TLR always seems to have a wipping boy--A. Reyes. He also seems to adopt a player as a son / mascot. Before it was Taguchi. As my wife pointed out the other night, Miles is TLR's new adopted son. We have the nepotism story line--the struggling C. Duncan. Dave Duncan--the consummate resurrector of disgarded pitchers, the magician at making starters out of relievers, and one of the hardest heads in the game of baseball who will attempt to jam a square peg in a round hole come hell or high water.

It's great theatre! Really, I think a day will come when we have a manager who is mild mannered, always plays the correct percentages, and is a fair evaluator of talent. I'm sure my wife will lose interest in such a team. I'm sure to miss these LaRussa drama teams.

Going whole hog

jjray — Wed, 14 May 2008 23:07:27 -0000

As much as I whined about the return of TLR for 2008 and his mucking up the roster with vets, I have to say that (so far) there are not a lot of personnel moves that I really have legitimate grounds to bellyache about ... won't stop me from complaining mind you. Resigning Miles after non-tendering the little guy seems to be the biggest problem. It cascades along the infield. If Miles was gone and Ryan was working in at SS and 2B, we'd have room for a corner IF bat. I don't know how long it's been since Joe Mather played 3B, but that kind of bat on the bench would be nice to exchange for Miles. Heck, I'd take Freese on the bench in exchange for Miles.

But Miles is water under the roster bridge. At least we jettisoned So Taguchi. So here the Cards find themselves 41 games into the season and, after a hot start, are scuffling. But they're only 1 game back @ 23-18. On opening day, we all would have pleasantly hoisted a Budweiser if told this would be the Cards' record on 5-14. But some problems are starting to rear their head. Our bullpen, once thought of as a strength, is showing signs of collapse. Izzy has been demoted. The rest of the relievers have looked human. The starters haven't been much better. Loshe has regressed substantially after a hot start. Write Clement off. Write Mulder off. For some reason, TLR & Dunc have written Anthony Reyes off.

Given that we are competitive this season to date, the question is what do we do to improve this team? I know what would have happened if Uncle Walt were still the GM--he'd be looking to deal prospects to bring in more vets. JMo ain't gonna play that game. Hallelujah. The path to improving the team going forward must appear clear to everyone not part of the two headed monster known as LaDuncan. We finally have talent in the upper levels of our farm system. The answer to the bullpen woes sits a few hundred miles down I-55 in Memphis. Chris Perez was told he was coming to the show then, hours later, told to stay put. Was there a tug of war between LaDuncan and JMo? Did Papa Dewitt step in and side with LaDuncan?

I think the situation with Izzy in microcosm determines the course for this team. Izzy should not be a Cardinal next season. Springer is not a long term solution. Franklin is getting by with smoke and mirrors. C. Perez needs ML experience in 2008 to not only improve the club today but prepare him for a larger roll in 2009. If the Cardinals insert Izzy back into the closer role while C. Perez continues to blow away minor league hitters, then LaDuncan will have their hands firmly on the rudder of the good ship SS Redbird. If C. Perez is called to STL and slowly gets handed more responsibility as he shows he can handle it (ala McClellan), then we know JMo has finalized a palace coup and has command. I'm pulling for you JMo. We'll keep our eyes on the Izzy / C. Perez situation.

We have some trade chips, what do we need?

jjray — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 13:28:29 -0000

Anthony Reyes just raised his trade value substantially. Mozeliak's instances that Reyes remain on the 25 man roster against the wishes LaDuncan has just paid dividends. But there is really nowhere for Anthony Reyes to go in this organization. As the injured starters (Pineiro, Mulder, Carpenter, Clement) come off the DL, current starters will be returned to the bullpen. And then there is Josh Kinney. Soon, current bullpen members will be voted off the island. Reyes and McClellan are the obvious choices (both with options). Gee, who gets more love from Duncan? They both may have to go to Memphis in the first half of this year.

It just makes sense that the Cards will deal A. Rey early this season. And isn't Colby Rasmus one of the three best OFers in the Cardinals organization right now? C. Duncan can't stay healthy. The big boy is a DH / 1B waiting to happen. Let's say we package A. Rey and C Duncan. What are we looking for in return? My vote would be for a middle infielder who can start immediately. Any thoughts on this topic?

The Reyes Mexican Standoff

jjray — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 18:50:02 -0000

I know there are comments on this topic in the main post today but it is pretty significant news so I hope it does not offend that I started a separate post on the topic. As you probably know, Reyes made the 25 roster as a reliever:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/0CC52FE90F73636E86257418001216EB?OpenDocument

This despite Duncan correctly saying Reyes was not setup for the reliever roll. How do you think was the conversation we between MO and TLR when the decision was made to set the 25 man?

TLR: I cannot abide by stench of straight bill. Banish him to Memphis.

MO: No sir. I cannot comply with your galant wishes. Reyes is on the 25 man. You shall play him sir.

TLR: Like hell I will Junior! He can rot in the bullpen like a corpse left on the gallows.

MO: You are the manager and you decide who plays. But I as the GM decide who is on the 25 man. So there.

(MO then sticks out his tongue out at TLR.)

Reyes is absolutely unsuited to relief. All I can figure is that they are trying to trade him and his perceived value may be higher as a guy off the 25 man versus someone down on the farm.

Schilling spat w/ Boston team doctor

jjray — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 20:10:04 -0000

Curt Schilling has a bum shoulder. The team doctors medically cleared him after last season, he signed a 1 year deal for $8 mill, and then, apparently it worsened. Sound familiar? The team doctors are prescribing rest then a strengthening program while a shoulder specialist (Dr. Morgan) says Schilling needs to go under the knife pronto if he is to pitch this season. Sounds real familiar. Can you say Mark Mulder? What's interesting is that Schilling is publicly dis'ing the Boston team doctor.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/02/schilling_backs.html

And did you catch the elaborate prank pulled against the Phillies Kyle Kendrick? They convinced the kid he had been traded to the Japan's "Yomiuri Giants" (the team does not exist).
http://www.mcall.com/sports/all-kendrickvideo0218,0,730095.story?track=rss