So most mock drafts out there have the Chargers picking for need in the first round of the draft, the typical positions are pass rusher, safety, and offensive tackle. I have seen the following names mentioned at pick number 18:

Pass Rusher: Nick Perry, Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw, Whitney Mercilus

Safety: Mark Barron, Harrison Smith

OT: Cordy Glenn, Riley Reiff, Jonathan Martin

The only value pick that I have seen out there is David DeCastro at OG, although one could say that that pick is also a need pick with the loss of Kris Dielman to retirement/training staff.

My goal here is not to pick one of those positions since those have been discussed ad nauseum by just about every mock drafter out there. Instead, my goal after the jump will be to look at some positions that the Chargers may not be a position of need for the Chargers in 2012, but a position that the Chargers could see a prospect sitting there at pick number 18 that is too enticing to pass on.

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Hello again everyone, it's been a while since i posted on here but the combine has come and gone and I'm back with my analysis of the OLB's/DE's like I did in this article last year.

I will start this breakdown by quoting from my article last year since I am lazy and I know that you are too lazy to click that link that I provided for you above, so here it goes.

The first thing that scouts and GM's look for is explosiveness. Explosiveness can be measured in several ways, but the best drills in the combine that show lower body explosiveness are the broad jump and the vertical jump. The only measure of explosiveness in the upper body at the combine is the bench press. What Kirwan recommends doing is adding up the results from these three tests to determine a player's athletic explosiveness. First off, let's take a look at a prototypical NFL 3-4 OLB and how he fared at the combine in these tests:

Now obviously not every prospect is going to match up with these results, as Ware has been an elite talent ever since he was drafted, but that is the bar by which these defensive players will be measured by. Below are the results from the 2011 Combine in the same drills and with the same calculations:

A number anywhere in the 70’s would raise the eyebrow of an NFL GM and make him take a closer look at that player.

If you look at those results from last year's class, you can see that explosion number was a pretty good predictor of the success of JJ Watt and Ryan Kerrigan, although Aldon Smith had a pretty good season as well despite having a less than elite explosion number (when you look at his college production numbers as I will later on in this article, you can see where that production came from). Although Von Miller didn't quite surpass 70 in his number, he was pretty darn close. Obviously there is more to predicting an elite pass rusher than adding up some numbers, but it's still fun so after the jump I will break down the results from this offseason's combine and we can attempt to figure out the next elite pass rusher.

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So it's been 2 years since the Chargers have won the division (and made the playoffs). The team no longer needs to build to win in the playoffs, the team needs to get back to basics and build to win the division and just make the playoffs. So where to start?

The point of this column is going to be analyzing the Chargers roster using the assistance from the good people over at Football Outsiders to see how the Chargers roster stacks up to the other rosters in the division. I'll also take a look at the last two seasons to see if the Chargers are trending upward or downward in each category.

For today's edition, I'm going to start with the Wide Receivers...after the jump.

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In what was most likely the second-to-last game for Norv Turner as the Head Coach of the Chargers, he sure didn't seem to put up much of a fight when the Chargers traveled to Detroit. I'll start here with a quotation from our good friend Dan Dierdorf at the end of the game:

It just doesn't seem possible that a San Diego team we saw Sunday night take apart the Baltimore Ravens, the next week would lay an egg like this.

Clearly Dan hasn't been watching the Chargers a whole lot this season. That statement epitomizes both the Chargers and the playcalling of Norv this season. At times they can be dominant, and times they can look like a team that belongs with a top 5 draft pick. It should be clear, though, that the fact that the Chargers had a mathematical chance at a playoff spot with 2 games to go does not mean that they are a playoff caliber team.

After the jump we will jump into the personnel details from the Detroit game.

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Well, folks, that was a painful game to watch. I'm normally more inclined to be an optimist about these things, but this team sure makes it hard sometimes. I might also add that I was quite worried when I realized that the Chargers were facing the Chiefs on Monday Night Football (like the horrible season opener last year)...in Arrowhead (where the Bolts always suck underwhelm)...on Halloween. It looked to me like the perfect storm for a completely characteristic nationally televised collapse that has become all too familiar with those who root for the Chargers.

One thing is clear: Philip Rivers is not right. There is something off. This isn't exactly groundbreaking news here, but it is having an earth-shattering effect on this team. In past seasons, Rivers has been the glue that holds the team together when the players around him were failing...now he is the reason that this team isn't currently undefeated (that's right, I said it).  

So what gives? No one outside of the organization (as well as many of those in the organization) knows the answer, but as fans (and bloggers) it is pretty much our duty to hypothesize about the severe regression of our fearless leader, El Capitan. Hypothesizing will begin after the jump...

Philip Rivers

#17 / Quarterback / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 228

Born: Dec 08, 1981

College: North Carolina State

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First off, if you haven't read Orz's bye week Playbook Confidential, you MUST.  He does a great job covering the trends that have popped up in the season leading up to the bye and what conclusions can be drawn from them.  

Many of us have been quite down on the Chargers offense lately with their inability to score points (more like Touchdowns) in the red-zone.  When I was looking over stats in the bye week, I came upon several statistics that most of us probably wouldn't have guessed.  The Chargers lead the league in several important offensive categories that I think deserve some extra attention after the jump.

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This installment is going to cover a slightly different area than some of our previous Playbook Confidential articles.  Most of the time we analyze the previous game and play-calling versus different personnel groups.  In this article, I'm going to take a look at some of the different offensive formations that the Chargers employ out of the same personnel grouping. 

Why do this?  Well, I'm glad you asked.  When a defensive coordinator makes his defensive playcall, the offense hasn't even broken their huddle yet.  All the information that the defensive coordinator has to make his playcall decision is the pattern of the offense during the game, his scouting from the previous week, and the offensive personnel in the huddle.  The more "looks" (formations) that an offense can give a defense from the same personnel grouping, the more that causes headaches for a defensive coordinator, and the more mismatches can be created.

After the jump I will go more in-depth and focus on all of the different "looks" that the Chargers have given out of the same personnel grouping.

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Hello all, I'm back for another chapter in this series breaking down the playcalling by personnel groups.  Unfortunately I was on travel all last week and was unable to do a breakdown after the Vikings game but Orz did a wonderful job covering everything in his article over here.

So a quick preview of some things that will be covered in this article:

• The Chargers' most predictable personnel group continues to be the most successful
• The Chargers continue to rely on 2 TE formations
• And some other observations that came to me as I did my analysis

Join me after the jump for the nitty-gritty details.

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Good afternoon, Bolts fans!  I'm back again for another edition in the Playbook Confidential series, this time with a breakdown from the third preseason game at Arizona.  In case you didn't see my first story in this series, you can check it out here.

Much like in the first story, after the jump I will break down any playcalling patterns that I noticed as a result of the personnel that Norv used in the first half (and a little into the second) of the preseason game in which the starters get the majority of their preseason reps.  I will also combine this week's numbers with last week's numbers just to see if any other patterns develop.

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I have this system that I use when watching Charger games where I chart Norv's playcalling by what personnel grouping he has in the game.  For example, "11 personnel" (1 RB, 1 TE) and if Norv calls a run or pass from that personnel grouping.  It is a quick and easy way to get move involved in the game, but also to easily see tendencies develop in the offensive playcalling. 

Why do I chart by personnel grouping instead of formations, you ask?  Because the first thing that a Defensive Coordinator looks at before he makes a defensive play call is what personnel grouping that the offense is sending into the game.  This is the first move in the chess match that develops for each play call, and is largely what the Defensive Coordinator makes his play call based off of since it is too late to call a play when the offense has lined up in their formation.

However, breaking playcalls down by formation is also a very worthwhile way to identify playcalling tendencies, and Orz did a great job breaking that down yesterday over here.

I used this same system in Charger games last season, and it was very interesting to see how Norv would set up a defense for explosive plays using personnel groupings.  For example, many times you would see Norv run for up to 80% of the playcalls out of "21 personnel" (2 RB, 1 TE) in the first half.  The defensive coordinator would take notice of this, and scheme to stop the run every time he saw the "21 personnel" grouping in the second half.  Norv would then dial up a deep pass from the "21 personnel" grouping when he needed a big play...and he would get it.

After the jump, I'll show you my results from the first half of the Cowboys preseason game.  I didn't chart the whole game, but only the plays in which Rivers and Volek were playing with the starters on offense.

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One game into the preseason there are still several questions remaining about certain positions on the Chargers roster and numerous predictions surrounding the team.  The defense is still starting to take shape, so it's hard to make too many predictions about the defense at this point, but the offense is fairly solidified at this point at least as far as starters go.

In this post, I'll visit the different groups on offense and make my predictions as to the sort of production that we can expect from those groups.  I'll be making comparisons to players on other teams around the league to give a better idea of the quality of play we can expect from those positions since just pure numbers are hard to picture.

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Hey everyone, welcome back for the second installment of training camp photos! Hope you enjoy!

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I braved the crowds at training camp today so that I could bring you the latest and greatest breaking stories; and not to mention I really wanted to see some football. Reports say that about 3,000 people showed up today, and by the time practice started at 4:15, it was definitely standing room only. I was able to find a spot in the stands which enabled me to snap some pictures. I didn't have the best angles at times, so I apologize if some of them appear cluttered. 

Good news everyone, FOOTBALL IS BACK!

Concerned that you see James Holt lined up at OLB with the first team?  Me too.  English was working on the side with his still–recovering foot injury and the Free Agents (LaBoy and Barnes) can't participate until August 4th; I'll get to that later.

More of my thoughts and musings, and tons more pictures after the jump.

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So AJ has been notorious for many things, one of which is his unwillingness to do anything for than dabble in the NFL's free agency period.  History has shown that AJ prefers to take Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA's) and has found some players that teams decided not to draft that have made some solid contributions.  A lot of these players become the fan favorites because, let's face it, everyone loves an underdog story.

Anyhow, there are several reasons that make me believe that AJ should, and will, make an about-face this season and do exactly the opposite of his normal trend.  I expect we will see hardly any UDFA's picked up by the Bolts, and more veteran Free Agents than we are used to here in San Diego.  Join me after the jump to see my reasoning...

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I will brace myself for some serious backlash here, but please hear out my argument before making a judgment on this one.

We all should know that Reggie Bush is a local product, having grown up in La Mesa and attending Helix High School.  He went on to become a star at the high school and college level (with some apparently questionable off the field transactions).  Regardless, he was a good enough to win the Heisman trophy, which he later returned, and get drafted number 2 overall to the New Orleans Saints.

Since joining the NFL he has career stats of 524 carries, 2090 yards rushing (4.0 avg), and 17 TDs.  In the receiving game he has 294 receptions, 2142 yards (7.3 avg), and 12 TDs.  Additionally, as a punt returner he has scored 4 TDs.  These stats are not quite what you would have expected out of Reggie after 5 seasons based off of his performance in college, but he has also suffered numerous injuries and only played in 50 games in those 5 seasons.  Many critics attribute these injuries to the hard surface at the Superdome and claim Bush would be better served playing on grass (it should be noted that all of the AFC West teams have real grass fields).

Anyhow, after the jump I will make the case to bring this local product back to San Diego.

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So we all know there isn't a whole lot of NFL news right now that isn't associated with the labor dispute, but that doesn't mean that teams aren't ready to go for the moment that the doors unlock and free agency opens.  I'm fairly positive that the Chargers have their list of "needs" and "wants."

Echoing the article in which I made the case for the Chargers to keep Vincent Jackson, you may have guessed by the title of this article who this one is going to be about, because I know you're a smart fan already since you are here at BFTB in the first place.

In case you don't know the history of Kevin Burnett, I'll briefly sum it up here then dive in deeper after the jump.  Burnett attended the University of Tennessee and was recruited as a safety, but was moved to linebacker by his sophomore year.  This move enable him to bring athleticism to the linebacker position that by his senior year enabled him to earn 120 tackles, 6 TFL, 1 sack, and 1 INT in his final season, although he had been known to be injury prone.  Kevin Burnett was then drafted by Dallas in the 2nd round of the 2005 NFL draft at pick number 42.  Burnett spent the next 4 seasons in Dallas largely as a backup (only starting 4 games), suffered numerous injuries, and never achieved more than 53 tackles in any given season.  He was eventually released from Dallas after a lackluster career there and the Chargers signed him to a 2 year contract in 2011. After the jump, I'll show you what Burnett has done in San Diego.

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The last season or two, Vincent Jackson has not made many friends in San Diego, and he has increased the number of enemies.  As fans, I think we make the mistake of taking these personnel situations too personally.  Jackson's holdout last season seemed to instill in many fans' and analysts' minds that he had burned his bridge in San Diego.  After becoming a problem on and off the field in San Diego, he decided to abandon his team in an effort to show that he deserved more money.  "This spells the end of Vincent Jackson in San Diego," they said.  I respectfully disagree.

If this past offseason has taught us anything, it is that the NFL is first and foremost a business, and a sport second.  Both sides have made it very clear that "the love of the game" comes a very distant second to the "love of the wallet."  With that being said, come with me after the jump to check out why I think Vincent Jackson can and will remain in San Diego.

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So most of you probably know that each time is allowed only 30 player visits prior to the draft.  The news on these visits is scattered all over the internet, and its hard to find a place that is able to confirm all of the information and compile it in one location.  I'll attempt to do that for you, and I'll provide some links of my sources, but I can't find everything so if you have a player that I haven't listed, feel free to post the link in the comments and I'll add it to my list.

Now some of the visits are merely in place to mislead other teams with no intent of drafting a player, and others are out of genuine interest for that player.  I won't even begin to make any guesses, I haven't seen any pattern to who AJ picks for visits, so I'll just be compiling the info for you.  I'll also add a rough approximation of targeted round in which that player is expected to be drafted.

The list will be after the jump.

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Before you read this article, put yourselves in AJ's shoes...*ahem*...AJ's flip-flops, and first answer this question:

What do you expect of a first round draft pick?

I believe we would all have different opinions. You see, some would look at this question from the financial side and say that if you picked the player in the the first round, you are paying that player at a level that some of the elite players in the NFL are not getting paid, so to be a good value pick that player must be playing better than the NFL's elite at that position.

Others would answer that if that player improves your team (in any way), they were a good first-round draft pick. 

Others would say that you should always take the highest valued player on the board, regardless of position and your own roster's depth, and if you stay true to your board, it was a good draft pick because it will all work out better in the end.

I'll take the cop-out answer and say that it depends, and will explain after the jump.

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Editor's Note: This article was originally posted on Tuesday, but it was front-paged after several other articles had been posted, so it never got the exposure it deserved. I've updated the date and time to ensure it receives genuine front-page exposure. -- creanium

I was watching the DL and LB day VERY closely this year as I think our first round pick should and will fall into one of those positions. Before watching the combine, I was very hesitant for the Chargers to take a 3-4 DE in the first round at pick #18, just seemed like a position that didn't have enough of an impact on every single down. I was convinced that there would be several players available at our pick at the OLB position that would be better options than the DE position, I could have been wrong.

After the jump I will break down the defensive prospects and rank them by both their athleticism exhibited in the drills at the combine, and their production in college. After all, a "workout warrior" does nothing in the NFL, as shown to us by Vernon Gholston and Aaron Maybin.

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So every year for the last few years before the draft I have been making a list of sorts of the players that I would be happy with the Chargers taking with their draft pick...and the length of the list varies based on draft position.  For example when the Chargers were draft at #16 in 2009, I came up with a list of the top 16 that I would be happy with.  When they were drafting at #28 last year, I scratched together a list of the top 28 that I would be happy with.

I have found this is a much better way to get a good/bad feeling about the upcoming draft to temper expectations.  In 2009, Larry English was not on my list, but I also didn't know much about him.  In 2010, Ryan Mathews was on my list and towards the top, but it also helped that the Chargers moved up to take him.  I felt better about this move because it was very hard for me to come up with a list of 28 players that I was happy for the Chargers to draft in the first round, as a matter of fact I think I only came up with 25 or so.  In that case I was either hoping the Chargers would move up to get a player they wanted or trade down and accumulate draft picks.

For this year's draft I was able to put together a "pre-combine" list of 18 players that I would be happy with the Chargers taking...the list (after the jump) will indubitably change after the combine.

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John's post on the need for a defensive playmaker ties in really nicely with a post I have been working on and now seems to be the time to post it.

I am a firm believer that winning in the NFL, particularly now with the strength of the passing game, lies in winning the possession game. Now the key here is that I don't mean winning the "time of possession" but that you get your offense more opportunities with the ball than your opponent's offense. This is particularly true when your team has once of those much sought after "franchise QBs".

The top 4 teams in the regular season in the turnover battle were as follows:

1. New England Patriots +28
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +17
3. Atlanta Falcons +14
4. Green Bay Packers +10

The Chargers? 24th with a -6 turnover differential.

Do I really need to convince you that getting the ball to Philip Rivers more often will result in more success?

After the jump I will dive into the keys for the Chargers to improving their success in winning the turnover battle.

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A silver fox article in the paper this morning got me started on thinking about all of the personnel that may potentially be unrestricted this upcoming offseason if there is a new CBA by that time.  (here is the link to the article if you didn't see it: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/nov/30/chargers-face-possible-losses/ )

There are several big names on the list of potential UFA's and many that I think the Chargers need to sign long term.  There are many good points in the article linked above, and some I will reiterate, but I highly suggest you look over that article as I will mainly focus on the personnel decisions that I think should be made and not comment on the overall situation as I will defer to the silver fox for those comments.

Anyhow, here is the list of players who's contracts are up after this season (after the jump, gotcha!):

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At the risk of having an emotional fanpost here following a tough loss, I'm going to pose some questions that need to be answered.  The questions revolve mostly around the RB situation and the reasons behind playing certain RB's in certain situations. 

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So by now everyone has noticed one of the glaring weaknesses in the 2010 Chargers through 3 games: Special Teams.  Many ideas are being thrown around to solve the problem, some realistic, some not: they include "trade VJ to get KO back" and "Fire the ST Coach." Those are both pretty extreme, and I'm not sure either would solve the immediate issues on the ST unit.

After the jump I will delve into the reasons that we are seeing such a poor showing from a unit that has historically been one of the strengths of the team wearing lightning bolts.

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