
jlk9697
Sep 09, 2008 Jun 01, 2012 31 1475
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Santiago / Barmes Comparsion: Did Pirates get fleeced?
Reports today have come out that Ramon Santiago has agreed to a 2 year deal worth a total of 4.2 million to return to Detroit for the next two seasons. Many on this site preferred Santiago to Barmes and advocated going after him. To me, they're pretty similar players. Perhaps not in skill-set, but in overall production. I don't think it's any more likely that Barmes will flame out or break out in Pittsburgh as it is Santiago would have. They're the same age and both have their issues.
What's done is done. The Pirates have Barmes and the Tigers get Santiago back. The point isn't to debate who will be the better player, but whether the Pirates aggressive nature has backfired.
The Pirates signed Clint on a two year deal for 10.5 million. Had they been more patient, there's a possibility Barmes would've already signed elsewhere.
There's also the possibility that the Pirates would have signed Barmes for a considerably cheaper rate given what Santiago got to return to the Tigers.
And then there's always the possibility that it could have been the Pirates, not the Tigers to sign Santiago had they preferred that. It would have taken an over-payment to go from an ALCS team to a perrenial loser, but certainly not as much as we'd paid Barmes.
Perhaps I'm missing a large component in this whole thing (And please correct me if I am), but I'm just not putting together the facts of why Santiago is worth over 3 million less per season.
Opinions on Bautista
OK, I know we're all sick of it. The topic of Jose Bautista and his role with the PIrates has been discussed entirely too much. However, that's not what I want to bring up.
I'm curious to play the "what if" game here and get some opinions. Not "what if he was a Pirate", but rather, "what if he'd figured out his swing mechanics at a young age?"
It's well reported that the Blue Jays hitting coach (I think?) had Bautista swing in front of a mirror, which seemed to "click" with him and he became a monster almost over night.
Let's imagine this hitting coach was on the Pirates, Orioles, Rays or Royals back in 2004 when Bautista was 23.
Do you guys think Jose Bautista would be the greatest hitter of this generation? Better than Pujols? Better than A-Rod? It sounds like a wildly crazy thing to assume, but Bautista did hit more HR's last year than Albert ever has and he's on pace this season to possibly eclipse that number.
Would Bautista be in the 400 HR club by 30?
Lindor over Rendon AND Cole?
I was browsing the Insider MLB Draft Blog page and came across a name I'd heard of before, but had forgotten about: Francisco Lindor. For those not familiar, he's a 5'11 switch hitting shortstop prospect from a prep school in Florida.
The short article basically said that Lindor's performance this season is solidifying his status as a Top 5 pick. Now, a separate article from ESPN suggested the Pirates may want to avoid negotiating with Boras and look at alternatives to both Cole and Rendon. I don't buy it, but Lindor's an interesting case in his own respect. Lindor may be represented by Boras as well, I haven't checked.
Lindor's slick with the glove, has power from both sides of the plate, and unlike Machado, is not projected to move from SS. Also doesn't hurt that he apparently has blazing speed. We hear this all the time, but he looks like a solid 5-tool talent.
I don't think I'd have the balls to pick Lindor over Rendon or Cole, but I'm definitely interested in seeing how things shape up the rest of the season. Rendon and Cole both have "health" issues, could Lindor be the darkhorse?
Here's a video from Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvdmZt2uu9Q
Watch the first 30 seconds or so to check out his fielding, but then skip to 2:30 and check out the wheels on this kid. Cutch-esque.
Pursuing Adam Wainwright an option?
This post really has no base, but I thought it would be an interesting subject to think about. If you weren't aware (Though I'm sure you were), Adam Wainwright will have to undergo Tommy John surgery, missing all of the 2011 season. This made me wonder if an aggresive, thinking outside the box approach may be to target an injured potential star like Wainwright and hope he returns to form. I'm not sure how common (If ever) deals like this are, but I think it could possibly make sense for a couple of reasons.
For the Pirates
1. The Pirates will be closer to contention in 2012 and 2013, so Wainwright's missed season nearly as crushing as it is to the Cardinals.
2. A chance to acquire a proven ace at possibly a discounted rate. A healthy Wainwright will probably never be traded.
3. 2012 and 2013 are team option years (9 and 12 million). Even if Wainwright isn't 100% in 2012, the team still has him for 2013, when they're going to more realistically challenge for a division title.
For the Cardinals
1. 2011 could be Albert's last year. Someone like Paul Maholm (Among other things), could help stabilize the rotation and fill at least a partial gap that Wainwright's leaving. If Pujols bolts, the Cardinals still have a decent team, but nowhere near where they are with him (obviously).
2. 2011 could be Albert's last year. They may not get anything for losing Pujols, in terms of trade value. This could be an opportunity to bolster their system, get younger, and plan a very quick rebuild.
3. 2011 could not be Albert's last year. It's going to take a boatload to sign Pujols. That much we know. Taking Wainwright off the books, along with 3-4 prospects and an ML proven player could help the Cardinals shave salary if they do end up inking Pujols.
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Curious what the masses would think about something like this going down. Would you love it? Hate it? Of course, it all depends on the price of acquiring Wainwright.
Personally, I think a package of Maholm, Allie, D'Arnaud, and Locke would be interesting. I know some will say that's a huge over-payment for the risk, and some will say that's not nearly enough for two season of a potential Cy Young winner.
ESPN #1 overall in 2011 draft
ESPN (Churchill and Law) did a bit of preliminary 2011 MLB draft analysis at who the Pirates may take #1 overall. It's an Insider article, so I won't copy anything, but basically Anthony Rendon's still the favorite though questions of his size, struggles playing for Team USA, and ankle are reasons we may look elsewhere.
Cole and Purke are the two most often mentioned as choices here if we don't take Rendon. Law seems to think that both may have bonus demands that price them out of the #1 choice.
Other options could be
Sonny Gray - Short, RHP, Vandy with great makeup
Bubba Starling - Seems like an uber-athlete. 5-tool CF who can also hit 90's from the mound. Considering football as well.
George Springer - OF Connecticut - College bat with big power and athleticism. They mention if Rendon's price is too much, Springer could be a logical choice.
Keith Law's Organizational rankings
In his first organizational ranking of 2011, Keith Law has the Pirates sitting at 21st. This is a bit discouraging. I kind of assumed we were around 21st or so before the 2010 draft. Adding huge arms in Taillon, Allie, and Hereidia, I thought would've bumped us up to the mid teen rankings. What's more discouraging for me is that Law has the Reds, Cubs, and Cardinals as having better systems than us, particularly the Cubs after the Garza trade.
The full article is Insider only, but I'll summarize the NL Central: Reds 8th, Cardinals 14th, Cubs 20th, Pirates 21st, Astros 27th, Brewers 30th.
If anyone is curious, Law ranks the Royals first because of their strong pitching. He really praises Dayton Moore, which is a tune you don't hear too often. Hope I didn't break any online/blogging code of ethics with this post.
Full link is below
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?page=2011MLBOrgRanks
Any chance the Pirates get in on Rafael Soriano?
I'm pretty sure the consensus here will be a resounding no, but with the slow-nature of things in baseball right now, I figured this topic may be a bit interesting to discuss. Had this been discussed at the beginning of the off-season, I'd have said "No way", but it appears Soriano's suitors are beginning to dwindle with Boras' asking price, particularly the three years.
A two year deal, however, could make some sense. The FO may think that with the upgraded platoon in RF and their belief in Overbay, the Pirates may be able to contend for a wild card this year (Not my opinion). If that's the case, an electric bullpen of Meek, Hanrahan, and Soriano would be a great start to building a Padres-esque winning philosophy.
The Pirates would also be able to keep Soriano fresh, much in the same way the Rays did. Having Meek and Hanny, both capable of closing games, can ensure Soriano doesn't get overworked and become a health risk.
I'm not advocating paying above-market value for Soriano. No team in our position should do this. I guess I'm questioning the possiblity that if Soriano's suitors have run dry, and there appears to be a bargain for his talents, do we jump in? This has always been an interesting internal debate for me. Should a team jump in on a great value regardless of the most pressing need? No guarantee whoever gets Soriano will get a great value, just hypothetically I'm curious what everyone thinks.
Should the Pirates go after Carlos Quentin?
Quentin, for those not familiar, is the 28 year old White Sox outfielder who has had one monster season and two above average seasons since then. He has a career OPS of .835 and wouldn't become a free agent until the 2013 season.
According to MLBTR, the Sox are looking to ship him, but the return they want may be pricey. One report lists them wanting bullpen help, another says bullpen help wouldn't be enough. Quentin is movable to the Sox after they acquired Dunn. Quentin and Dunn are equally terrible outfielders leaving Quentin the odd man out with Dunn at 1st and Konerko returning.
The main reason the Pirates may want to pursue Quentin is to stick him at 1st base. Quentin is athletic enough that he'd probably have no trouble handling a move to first, and could actually go from a defensive liability in the outfield to a possible plus defender at first. This would give Pedro two more years to prove he can handle third base, while locking 1st base down through 2012. The other main advantage this would create is that Jones/Diaz would be (I assume) a strict platoon in RF, unless one's play demanded a full-time job.
First things first, is Quentin a player we want?
Second, if yes, what kind of package do you think would be enough to acquire him?
Hanny, Meek, Maholm, Doumit, AA SP's, Ohlendorf all have been mentioned in some capacity as possible trade pieces. What do you fellas think?
Sandy Alomar never considered a candidate?
I know many of us have beaten a dead-horse with this managerial search, but I'm going to give the dead horse one more kick while Hurdle makes up his mind.
I'm curious what our community thinks of Sandy Alomar Jr. I'm not sure if he has been mentioned in other threads or not. As we know, he was a finalist for the Blue jays job, but that eventually went to Farrell.
Alomar, having played in Cleveland, I assume would have some sort of Neal Huntington connection. I don't know if they were ever in the organization at the same time, but surely their paths crossed. He has never managed at any level, so perhaps the Bucs wanted someone with prior experience, or maybe Alomar wants nothing to do with the Pirates.
Whether or not he'd actually be a good manager I don't know. I guess I'm just surprised with the Cleveland connection, his Latin American roots, strong interest from the Blue jays, and excellent ability as a former catcher that he was never even mentioned as a candidate.
Sign Uribe and then worry about where he plays
Not quite as attractive as options like Beltre, Lee, or even Hudson, but Uribe could be a reasonable fill-in that would make the 2011 defense and pitching better.
One could switch Uribe back to his original position of 2nd base. Less range would be required and he'd be able to go from an average-below average fielder at SS to (I hope) a plus defender back at 2nd. From there, the defensive alignment would begin. Walker to 3rd, Pedro to 1st, and presumably Ronnie would be re-signed.
The second option management could take if they wanted to sign Uribe would be to cut bait with Cedeno. The Pirates could then evaluate Uribe at both 2nd and SS. Let's say the Pirates sign Uribe, and let Cedeno walk. If they ultimately end up deciding they want Walker at 2nd, Uribe has shown that he's at least adequate at SS, despite what the eye-ball test showed me in the playoffs.
Third, and very unlikely(but my personal favorite), the Pirates could make Uribe their everyday 3B. Let's face it, he's a big guy, his range is probably going to decline in the next couple of seasons. I'm just guessing here, but I'd imagine Uribe would make an excellent 3B while not having to worry about covering ground up the middle. He has about 150 games at 3rd with a UZR of 4.0.
The excellent post about a month ago regarding an infield defensive alignment briefly mentioned Uribe. However, Uribe was mentioned as a shortstop candidate. Personally, I'd like to try Uribe at third because I'm not a believer in Pedro at third.
The great thing about signing Uribe would be he has played 3rd, SS, and 2B in his career. If the buccos are at all wondering how to evaluate Pedro and Walker at their respective positions, signing Uribe early could give them plenty of infield flexiblity this off-season.
Curt Young a managerial candidate?
ESPN is reporting that Curt Young is turning down an offer to come back for his 8th season as the Oakland A's pitching coach. His reasoning it appears is to explore other options at the major league level.
There is no doubting alot of the success A's pitchers have had over the years from Hudson, Mulder, Zito to the recent successes of Trevor Cahill (18-8), Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey. Also, Gio Gonzalez made some strides this year.
The rumor flying around now seems to be that Young is jumping ship for the Boston pitching coach job now that Farrell is gone. This would make sense, but should the Pirates put in a call to Young and see if he's interested in more by coming here?
I don't know Young all that well, despite the success of plenty of pitchers he has coached. I have no idea if he has managerial ambitions, if he fits the "manager's profile", or if he's ready for such a position. I'd love to hear from someone who may have a bit more knowledge on Young.
I'll summarize by saying the idea of having a manager who was a former pitching coach for a small-market team used to throwing young pitchers out there is an extremely intriguing thought.
John Gibbons Removes Himself From Consideration
From MLBTR, Bob Dutton of the KC Star tweets that John Gibbons has removed himself from consideration for the Pirates managerial search.
Maybe he didn't feel like waiting, maybe he sensed he wasn't going to get the job, or maybe he has an offer to coach elsewhere, but it appears John Gibbons will not be the next manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
UPDATE by Charlie: Who knows what's going on here, but so far it looks like Gibbons dropped out so that he could stay on as the bench coach in Kansas City, which seems weird to me. Maybe once he learned about the Pirates' job he decided it wasn't for him, but we may never know.
Should the Pirates go after James Loney?
Loney, after a disappointing season in LA (.723 OPS), is an outside candidate to be non-tendered by the Dodgers. Tim at Piratesprospects talks a bit about Loney, basically saying his road splits would make him a pretty good target for the Pirates, in hopes of a bounce back year as Loney is only 26.
I don't think there's even a slight chance the Dodgers don't at least get something for Loney. If Coletti doesn't want him, he'll know someone will and shop him accordingly. The Pirates should, at the very very least, make a call to see of his availability (Though I have a hard time believing Loney didn't come up at least once in discussions at the deadline).
There's several reasons I would LOVE to have James Loney come here.
1. As noted, his road splits have always been better, so leaving Dodger Stadium could improve his weak power numbers.
2. This may be the one and only opportunity to acquire him, at his prime. He's 26, and has hit better in each of the past 2 and a half seasons he has been in the majors, prior to this season. One would think that entering the age he is and switching parks, he'd almost certainly have to improve on last year's performance.
3. He'd be a positive upgrade on defense at 1B. This season 1.3 UZR, 2009 he had a 2.3 UZR. Loney also finished 3rd in the NL in fielding %. He doesn't appear to be an outstanding defender, but certainly an upgrade and a reason for management to keep Walker and Pedro where they are now, which is their stated preference.
4. Because he doesn't put up gawdy, flashy numbers as a 1B, he'll relatively cheap for the level of production he's capable of putting up. They rarely look at solid defense or ability to draw a walk as reasons for a huge raise. Loney also isn't a FA until 2013.
5. To me, he'd be a great fit long-term. He's a complementary player. A player like Loney is league average and for a small-market team sometimes that's okay. From what I've read, Loney seems to be a "team player" and a good organizational guy to have.
All in all, I'd be willing to make a trade for Loney's rights. I think pretty highly of, I'm sure others on here may not, others may even think higher of him than I do. I'd be willing to give up a prospect along the lines of Diego Moreno to get him here.
Thoughts? Feelings?
Smizik = Logical
I know, crazy thought.
In Smizik's latest piece he basically says AP's follow up piece where they let Bautista rip the team apart, talk about the dismantling of several promising teams, and lack of spending is very unfair to the Pirates, and he's correct.
Smizik points out the pending FA status of players like Bay and Nady as good reasons for splitting up the team, which the AP blatantly ignores.
It's actually very logical of Bobbo, something I rarely find myself saying.
Smizik, if you're reading this, congratulations, this may be the one and only time you have more supporters on BucsDugout than on your own blog.
Here's the link: http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/bobsmizik/archive/2010/08/26/ap-article-on-pirates-unfair.aspx#comments
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Lastings Milledge / Delmon Young Comparison
I was looking at Delmon Young's truly breakout season this year and thought back to our own acquired "former top prospect who seemed like a bust" in Lastings Milledge.
These are their overall numbers straight from Baseball-Reference:
Milledge: G PA AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
| 5 Seasons | 422 | 1629 | 1471 | 162 | 394 | 71 | 8 | 33 | 167 | 40 | 20 | 104 | 284 | .268 | .328 | .394 | .722 | |||
Delmon Young
| 5 Seasons | 569 | 2313 | 2172 | 270 | 639 | 127 | 8 | 53 | 320 | 32 | 18 | 93 | 397 | .294 | .326 | .433 | .759 | |||
Delmon has almost 700 more PA's than Milledge and is only truly realizing his full potential this season by hitting for both power and average. Both are 25 years old, with Milledge being about 5 months older, though it seems both guys have been around forever, doesn't it? Delmon has gotten 1500 PA's since joining the Twins, despite putting up a pedestrian .741 OPS and .733 OPS the past two seasons, before a huge spike up to .845 this season...
Now, just because Delmon realized his potential doesn't mean Lastings will necessarily realize his, I get that. This is just an eye-opener to the people saying Milledge has gotten enough at-bats to determine he won't succeed. The only way to really determine this is to keep trotting a guy out there.
Thoughts?
Down goes Moskos
ESPN (And maybe others?) are reporting that Daniel Moskos has been demoted back to AA. Since joining Indy he has an ERA over 10.00 and has allowed 20 ER's in just over 17 IP. I don't know Mosko's arsenal that well to know what the problem was, but clearly he suffered immensely from being dominant at Altoona to disasterous at Indy. At least he gets a chance to help the Curve in the playoffs now. Kidding, but in all seriousness, it's unfortunate Danny wasn't able to continue his succes in Indy, as a September call-up could've been in the works had things gone smoothly.
AA Starters Expected Arrivals
With the addition of a new SP prospect in McDonald, I got to thinking of our solid Altoona rotation and what we may be able to expect next season as far as the rotation goes.
To recap here's some general stats for the main four down in Altoona:
Rudy Owens 22 - 20 starts, 2.92 ERA, 7.6 SO/9, 1.5 BB/9
Bryan Morris 23 - 13 starts, 4.21 ERA, 9.00 SO/9 3.4 BB/9
Justin Wilson 23 - 19 starts, 3.06 ERA, 8.10 SO/9, 4.1 BB/9
Jeff Locke 22 soon 23 - 4 starts, 1.96 ERA, 8.6 SO/9, 1.6 BB/9
Owens is clearly the one who will advance to AAA first, and probably the Majors first if that transition goes smoothly. I'm just wondering what the timetable everyone sees for the arrival of these guys is, or if you see all staying in the organization? We can probably deal one of these arms in addition to something else (Doumit? Jones?) and maybe get a promising SS.
It seems like we may have a bit of a logjam at SP next season. All four of these guys should be out of AA (Maybe not Locke) relatively soon next season. That will leave us with Owens, Morris, Wilson, Morton, Lincoln, Veal, Hart, DCutch, McDonald, Karstens, all in that AAA - Back of the rotation majors grey area. I suppose it's a good thing to have options (Although not all good options), I guess my only concern is that these Altoona kids will be held back because they don't have space in either AAA or the ML-Team.
Has NH given any sort of timetable for what to expect? I know he's generally against that sort of thing, I'm just curious to hear what he plans on doing if four pitchers in AA continue to have success and push the envelope.
What to do with Brandon Moss?
The often forgotten about Brandon Moss is hitting over .300 in July with 5 HRs coming in his last 30 at-bats. Moss, on the year, has 16 HR's and and OPS of .805, which is actually impressive considering the horribly average start he had to begin the season at AAA.
The question is, if he continues to produce, assuming Milledge/Jones/Tabata/Cutch all stay healthy, what do we do with Moss?
He's still only 26. He has had enough ML at-bats to most likely categorize him as a bust, but every guy is different. We also have to consider (Though we hear this sort of thing from every player), that Moss changed his stance/approach at the plate and credits much of his recent success to that. If this is a circumstance where that's legit, Moss could be a great 4th outfielder or long shot starter.
Trade him at the deadline? Strong AAA numbers will be attractive to some teams, especially if he's a side piece of a deal, instead of a centerpiece, much like he was when he was traded to the Pirates.
Trade/Cut Church and make Moss the new 4th outfielder? I'd prefer this, as I see Moss as a younger, cheaper Church and well, wouldn't we rather have a younger/cheaper Church than an older/more expensive Church?
Completely disregard Moss? Basically, we accept that he's an AAA player and don't give him much thought unless an outfielder or Jones has an extended injury.
I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are on Moss, if any.
The difference between Duke and Karstens, miniscule?
Duke is often compared with Maholm as their careers have been pretty similar so far. Both are soft tossing lefties that rely on the groundball and are at a similar age. I think we're all in almost a 100% unison here though, that Maholm is by far the better of the two pitchers, all you have to really do is look at this year, or a little deeper at their career numbers to see that.
I thought it would be fun to examine the career and season differences between Duke and Karstens. What did I come up with? No surprise Karstens has been the better pitcher this season. Duke has been worse than normal, and there's still a long 2nd half to go, but thus far, Karstens has, in almost every way, been better this year. Is this a fluke? Probably, but not as much of a fluke as you might imagine. Keep in mind Karsten's sample size is much smaller than Duke's, but I'm pretty sure that over 280 innings in the majors we can pretty much guess Karstens will not get drastically better or worse.
2010 Season: Zach Duke: 5.49 ERA 4.92 FIP, 1.72 WHIP 1.85 SO/BB
2010 Season: Jeff Karstens: 4.46 ERA 5.37 FIP 1.43 WHIP 2.13 SO/BB
Career statistics:
Zach Duke (885 IP) 4.41 ERA 4.28 FIP 1.47 WHIP 1.92 SO/BB
Jeff Karstens (283 IP) 4.99 ERA 5.16 FIP 1.45 WHIP 1.38 SO/BB
Looking at their career stats, you'd obviously peg Duke as the better pitcher, which we all have. However, with Duke's contract running up and a likely increase in salary, I personally, can live with Karsten's taking Duke's spot in the rotation for next year. The FIP for 2010 shows Duke's had some bad luck and Karsten's some fortunate luck, but all of the other indicators point to Karsten's just being better in the appearances he has made. Keep in mind Karstens is also less than a year older than Duke, so there's a good chance neither is likely to breakout. Karstens gets a pretty bad reputation around these parts, and I'm in no way advocating he's a good pitcher, only that this year, and career wise, is he really that much worse than Duke?
Reflecting on the timing of Huntington's trades
This is something I was thinking about today and figured some of you may have an input as well. As we all know, every GM will make blunders in trades, NH included. Trades don't always work out well for both sides, or in our case either side most of the time.
To me, the one thing a GM can do is maximize his resources by trading a guy at the right time. That means knowing the value of your asset and whether or not it's likely to increase or decrease from a given point. I think here it's fair give Neal credit where credit is due (Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady), but also question him on the timing of his trades and perhaps the timing of trades he never made.
Duke - Should have been flipped while we had a stellar defense that made him look better than he was.
Doumit - Should have been flipped after a clearly fluky 2008 season where his numbers have never come close.
Adam LaRoche - Probably should've been flipped in the off-season, where we'd be getting back more instead of 2 months of service.
Andy LaRoche - Who knows what was actually on the table with Oakland, if anything, but perhaps we should've taken a good hard look at accepting something less than Gio and Sweeney.
Bay - I know the package was thought to be pretty good, but there really wasn't a dire need to move him at that point. Deals from Cleveland and Tampa that have surfaced seem to have been better times to deal Bay as well.
Again, this isn't a direct criticism so much as an interest in what you guys think. Personally, I think he has been off on his timing of trading guys, but I will give him credit for McLouth and Nady, which seemed to be timed quite well.
Would you rather...
I'm very curious what the outcome of this scenario will be and what the priority of most fans on here is.
Let's say in 2010 the Pirates continue this trend of fortunate one run games, they also continue to get stellar performance from the bullpen, a boost from the guys in AAA, and a solidified rotation going into the second half. The pirates go on an 8 game winning streak to end the season, finishing 82-80, 17 years over with. Guys like Cutch, Tabata, Andy, Lincoln, Pedro and the rest of the core produce nicely in this season and look to be the cornerstone of the future.
Now let's say in 2010 the Pirates completely fall apart. The rotation is barely functional, the bullpen collapses from being overworked, the defense continues to stink, coupled with some tough luck losses and a long 12 game losing streak, the Pirates finish 62-100, the worst in the Majors by one game. However, the core players mentioned above Cutch, Tabata, Andy, Lincoln, and Pedro (basically, the future), all held their own and developed well, despite the rest of the team being a complete disaster.
Which situation is more desirable? On one hand, the streak we have all had to hear about and endure has finally been broken, and we go into 2011 feeling great about our ballclub. We feel that the playoffs may only be a year away, but at the same time, realize how lucky we were this season and the bullpen may not be anywhere near as dominant next year. On the other hand, another terrible season, but with a glimmer of hope. The core is playing great, which is all that really matters right now anyways, right? In addition we have the draft rights to as sure of a prospect as they come in Rice SS Anthony Rendon. We may feel it's a blessing in disguise after being so terrible, but not terrible enough to hit on Strasburg or Harper.
So, which do you choose?
How much is coaching to blame? A strange proposal.
I don't just mean John Russell. Yes, he has made some questionable in-game decisions, in additon to not having the guys as prepared in my opinion, as they should be, at small ball things a club like this has to master, like bunting, baserunning, etc.
I'm talking about Don Long and Joe Kerrigan. How much blame should they get? I'm being completely serious here, I really don't know. When a team plays this bad, is it more a matter of individual's failing at an epic rate all at the same time? It would seem to me that when all facets of the game are going horribly, that's an indication of poor coaching. Obviously the talent level isn't there right now and guys are struggling, I would just think that good, consistent coaching wouldn't permit this type of embarassment. I admittedly have no clue though and I'm curious what you all think.
Would this be a ludicrous thought? We obviously can't make big splashes in FA. We can and have tried to make them in the draft and Latin America. Could the next step be in top-tier coaching? Is it crazy to think about offering Rudy Jaramillo (Texas hitting coach) and Dave Duncan (Cards pitching coach) triple what they're making now to come here? Pay Perry Hill a salary he'd never dream of to come back. All-in-all it's not going to amount to anywhere near paying what you'd pay one middle of the rotation veteran.
Just a thought, but hey, if the Pirates are willing to bat the pitcher 8th and install that absurd outfield shift, thinking outside the box doesn't seem to be something they're opposed to.
Holy Matt Capps..
One word: Damn.
0.79 ERA and 8 saves so far. Yikes. Now, to be fair, it is early in the season, and Huntington has built a pretty solid bullpen thus far, and it seems at a cheaper cost than Capps' arbitration would have brought, BUT in my opinion, that's not really the point.
The Capps non-tender was, in general, a bad idea. Even if Capps implodes half-way through the year, in my opinion it's still a bad idea. As Charlie and many have pointed out, on a team with a ridiculously low payroll, it's a much bigger risk to let Capps go than to risk him not performing to the standards of his contract. Huntington seems to think he can build the bullpen year to year, and that may be so, this group looks pretty good, but wouldn't it look alot better having Capps added in to the mix over Taschner, Burres, Penn, and the likes...
This speaks of a much, much, bigger and scarier problem thus far of the Neal Huntington era, and that is talent evaluation. Yes, non-tendering Capps is a savvy move if you think you can build the bullpen cheaper and Capps isn't worth the money, but you HAVE to be certain. So far, it looks like Huntington was dead wrong about Capps. Great plan, shady execution seems to define Huntington's time here with the Pirates.
I will admit I haven't looked at the deeper numbers on Capps this year such as velocity or babip to see if he's merely getting lucky, but if Capps goes on to make an All-Star appearance closing for the Nationals and is a top 5 guy in saves at the end of the year, Huntington may be the one being non-tendered at the end of the season.
We need Prince!
I realize the likelihood of the Pirates acquiring Prince Fielder this off-season is slim to none, but man, this guy would be absolutely perfect in a Pirates uniform, so let me dream for a minute. I was at the game last night, and this will go completely unnoticed on the box score, but Prince hit three balls that missed the RF foul pole by about 10-15 feet each time. All three foul balls were EASILY home runs if straighted out by a few feet.
Fielder would be a monstrous upgrade at 1B and, to me, he'd be worth the $20 million per year he's going to command. With 320 ft in RF, Fielder would be as close to a lock for 45 HR that we'd ever be able to find. This would accomplish a few things.
1. 1B is locked down for the next 4-5 years with a power bat the Pirates have needed for so, so long. Yes, 20 million is a ton of money to invest in one guy, but if you're going to spend it on a guy, Fielder is probably as safe of an investment that I could think of. He'd be 30-31 by the end of the deal, so Boras could get him another big pay-day after his time here.
2. Shut the yinzer fan base up about Nutting being cheap for at least a couple years.
3. Provide an instantaneous dangerous middle of the lineup with Fielder and Alvarez hitting behind Cutch. Also, this would allow a Garrett Jones type to move down in the order, somewhere he's probably better fit if he's going to have continued long term success.
4. Personally, I like fat boy. Can't stand Cryin' Ryan, but I find Fielder a likeable personality and a pretty passionate player. I think he would go over really well with the city.
Let me state though that I believe the pitching staff has to show some consistency and success to warrant such a move. It won't matter if we signed Fielder and Pujols, if the staff can't consistently compete. I'm merely putting it out there that as the season progresses, and the lights dim on Clement and Pearce (for a 2nd time), a move like this would do alot for the franchise, especially if Alvarez, Cutch, and the starting pitchers figure things out.
Disclaimer: I fully expect to get blasted for this post.
Trading Ryan Doumit
Since the Garrett Jones thread was so popular, I figured a thread regarding a possible trade of Ryan Doumit may be just as popular. So far, and this is a very big "so far", Doumit has looked pretty good, most notably with that 3 run bomb on Opening Day.
Now, Garrett Jones is a little bit older, but he's also cheaper and doesn't come with the health concerns that Doumit does. I know some fans will gripe that if Doumit finally puts together a full season, it would be suuuch a Bob Nutting thing to do to trade him before he's due for more money next year, but personally, for an injury plagued guy like Doumit, trading him obviously wouldn't be the worst idea.
Let's say hypothetically Doumit has 14 HR, 280 and 70 RBI by the deadline. I really think Texas, if in the hunt come late July, would pay a king's ransom for Doumit. Teagarden and Saltalamacchia haven't been able to prove their worth yet. Doumit would be a potential monster at Arlington and in the middle of that stacked Texas lineup.
I'm actually loving the thought of a Jared Saltalamacchia and maybe an AAA SP for Doumit. Salty would be the perfect fit for Pittsburgh. He's still young at 25, but he's a former top untouchable prospect that hasn't lived up to his hype. He'd probably be, at the very least, a nice fill in until Tony Sanchez is ready. Best case scenario, he fulfills his potential and we've easily won the trade alone.
2010 Draft - Open Forum
Basically, a few of us have been discussing the 2010 draft on an earlier post, so I figured we could use this post to spark up some more conversation about who the Buccos might go with come June while we all patiently wait for April 5th to arrive.
First, I think it's pretty safe to say that Bryce Harper is solidifying himself to be the best talent in the draft. He has performed at or over expectations at JuCo using a wooden bat and is destroying the competition. The Nats in all likelihood have to take him, but if for some reason they don't, the immense immense pressure would be on Huntington. No way Harper slips past #2.
Let's assume Harper does go first, from what I've seen, the guys who could follow him up are:
James Taillon - Huge HS Texas arm, best prep pitcher in the country. He had some mediocore outings to start the season but has dominated the past two. For any of you that haven't seen a video on him, I suggest it. The movement he gets on his pitches looks really promising.
Drew Pomeranz - Big Lefty from Ole Miss, solid stats, though not "elite" talent
Derek McGuire - Similar to Pomeranz talent wise, righty with good but not "elite" talent. Supposedly has four solid pitches.
Manny Machado - Considered by many the best HS positional player, athletic SS, has projectability concerns.
Christian Colon - The early favorite to be the #2 pick, struggled to start the season and likely has played himself out of the #2 slot, a huge finish could change that though.
AJ Cole - Considered the 2nd best prep arm in the country, the Pirates may go this route if they think Taillon is committed to Rice.
Bryce Brentz - Talented college OF, plays in a weak division but has raked so far. There are some strikeout issues with him however.
Anthony Ranaudo - Big power arm from LSU, has been injured and may have hurt his stock. Also a Scott Boras client. He'll really have to light it up down the stretch for the Pirates to consider him at #2 given the injury and agent.
Still a long ways away until the draft, but these guys look to be the front-runners for the Pirates at #2. I've fallen in love with Taillon from what I've seen, but I can't argue if the Pirates want to get someone who can make an impact relatively quick. If that's the case I think Pomeranz or McGuire should be the pick. They should be somewhat easy to sign and climb the system fast.
Well, have at it guys. Who do YOU want to see taken? Who do you THINK will be taken?
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Ryan Church
MLBTR and Fox Sports both report that a deal with Church seems close at this point. Hopefully this would only be a one year deal, but given Church's strong defense and presence as a lefty, a two year deal with him being a rotational starter / fourth outfielder wouldn't be terrible either. This should signal the end of Brandon Moss for good, give Tabata more time to mature in AAA, and mean a 1B/RF rotation of Jones/Clement/Church.
Tigers as trade partners?
NH has shown already that he's at least going to be involved in talks this off-season with the Aki acquisition and the Hardy-Capps trade that wasn't.
Mlbtraderumors.com has a small piece on a few Tiger's players and I couldn't help but think the Pirates fit their needs very well, and vice versa.
First, the Tigers have too much money tied up in star players, so they're exploring trading Edwin Jackson before he becomes a FA in 2012. Jackson, once a TB prospect, had a breakout first half last season before struggling in the second half. Still, he's 26 and is controlled through 2011. This, to me, would be a guy the Pirates would have to target if he is available.
Second, the Tigers are exploring trading Gerald Laird to get an adequate replacement for a fraction of the 2.88 million he made last year. Jason Jaramillo has proven himself more than adequate when given the chance to play everyday and would be as good, probably better than Laird, who often looks slow and out of shape.
Third, RP Brandon Lyons recently became a free agent. The Tigers are interested in bringing him back, but the price Lyons may get on the market may be higher than what the Tigers want to pay. Clearly Matt Capps is a tradeable piece right now and would come cheap and controllable for the Tigers.
Now, maybe Jackson isn't even being considered in any deal, although I'd love the Pirates to grab him. Still, I think with the Pirates willingness to trade Capps and excess at the catcher position, the Tigers would be good trade partners this offseason.
Ideally: Edwin Jackson for Capps, Jaramillo, and... Gorkys maybe? A decent option for when Granderson's legs get a little slower in a few years. Seems pretty even to me.
Thoughts in general?
Delgado...? No way?
Normally, I'm not a fan of free agent speculation, especially when the Pirates are involved, but I just read an article on mlb.com about how the Angels used the money they would have spent on Tex and it got me thinking a bit.
The article, (linked below) compares the 20 million the Angels were prepared to spend on Tex, and how they dispersed it instead to improve at multiple positions, something they might not have been able to do with the signing (Re-signed Rivera, went out and signed Abreu and Fuentes) and spent less than what it would have taken to sign Tex.
Obviously, the Pirates don't have a Tex they're trying to sign, but they do have about $20 million in saved cash from the trades.
One big name came to mind when I thought of the Pirates in this position: Carlos Delgado. He's coming off an injured year and he's old (Crazy thought, right?). This also means his market value will be lower, add in the fact that he's a prideful Puerto Rican who wears #21 for Clemente, has had an OPS lower than .800 only once in the past 13 years, and he's a lefty with that nice short porch in right, and might we be onto something?
It's a crazy idea I know, but it would let Jones try and play RF permanently and suddenly the Pirates have gone from a team with no power to a team with decent power. Pearce and Moss suddenly have their roles being support off the bench.
Bobby Abreu had a poor 2008 and signed with the Angels for 6.5 million. Now, the Angels are perrenial contenders every year. Is it safe to say Delgado would sign a 2 yr/ 18 million deal to play in Pittsburgh? I know that thought will make many cringe, and I can't blame you. In general I'm a fan of the moves Huntington would make and this would certainly go against the grain, but I think it could pay dividends to and help the Pirates turn the team around quicker.
In addition, given we assume the Pirates made that move and had 11 million in addition to spend: Spend maybe 4 million on Grabow and another 5 million on Polanco (Assuming we keep Andy at 3B). No, this doesn't help the team in the long run, which is the ultimate goal, but if NH is serious about the core being in place, adding three pieces like this and an additional couple million in arbitration raises and the Pirates could have a very useful 20 million payroll increase.
Thoughts? (Let the blood bath begin)
2010 Payroll Lowest in MLB?
After all of the recent moves, it would seem that the Pirates will have the lowest payroll in all of Major League Baseball for 2010.
Between Wilson, Snell, Sanchez we have about 18 million off the books for 2010.
The Marlins, with a payroll of around 36 million are this years lowest. In case anyone was wondering, the Pirates sat at about 48 million, third lowest I believe.
Maholm, Duke, Doumit, Vazquez and Capps are the only guys on the team (I think) set to make anything above a million. The payroll, in my estimation (Which could be off as its late and I haven't done as much research for this as I should have) should sit at 20 - 25 million depending on arbitration decisions.
With all of that said: What do you guys think will come of the saved cash?
More bonus money to the draft picks?
Latin America development?
Sign a couple reasonably cheap stop-gap FA's? (Iwamura? Greene?)
Better promotions at the ballgame? (Half kidding)
I realize there's separate budgets for all of those things, I'm just curious where the money saved from payroll cuts will be headed.
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