Mostly because I tire of the same repeated Reds stories coming out of all the Reds sites, media outlets and the national media of the last several weeks - and because a Bucs Dugout diary cross post from yesterday inspired this idea.

Lets step outside the box as Reds fans and put on your GM caps - Pretend your Neal Huntington for a day. How would you fix the Pirates?

It's tough as Reds fans to remember some times that there are fans who have had it worse off for longer than the Reds have. And the Pirates would definitely be one of those teams.

I'm looking for some honest answers - and I know there are some astute baseball fans around here.

Pirates 40 Man Roster
Top Prospects List
(Baseball America) (Baseball Prospectus)

Day One of the Draft is over, and here is who the Reds ended up with and any videos that MiLB.com has on file

1st - Devin Mesoraco, C, HS - Scouting Video
SuppA - Todd Frazier, SS, Rutgers - Scouting Video
SuppB - Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, HS - Scouting Video
2nd - Zack Cozart, SS, Ole Miss - Scouting Video
3rdA - Scott Carroll, RHP, Missouri St
3rdB - Neftali Soto, SS, HS - Scouting Video
4th - Blake Stouffer, 1B, Texas A&M
5th - Andrew Bowman, LHP, Nebraska

And here's what Baseball America has to say about each

Mesoraco

As strong as this year's high school class was considered at the outset of the season, it got even better when high school righthanders Jarrod Parker and Nevin Griffith and Mesoraco came out of the gate showing better tools and ability than they had last summer and fall. Griffith and Mesoraco appeared in showcases, but they didn't show impact potential until this spring, and Mesoraco has been the biggest riser of them all. An arm injury led to Tommy John surgery when he was a sophomore, and he was relegated to DH duties as a junior. His arm strength has slowly returned, and this spring he has shown a 70 arm with quick, efficient releases. Defensively, Mesoraco compares favorably to 2001 Angels first-rounder Jeff Mathis, with athleticism serving as the foundation of an agile, quick-twitch player who receives and blocks exceptionally well. He shows above-average bat speed and 50-55 power at the plate. He's a solid-average runner, too, rounding out a legitimate five-tool package that probably won't make it out of the first round.

Frazier

Todd is the third Frazier brother who will be drafted, following Jeff (Mariners) and Charlie (Marlins) in the legacy of the famed Tom's River, N.J., Little League teams of the late 1990s. He has been a three-year starter at Rutgers and carved a reputation as a solid all-around player with a long track record of performance despite a modest tool set. He raised his profile by showing plus power with wood last summer with the college national team, but scouts are apprehensive about his long-term ability to hit for average because of unorthodox swing mechanics. He's a solid-average runner with adequate hands and an average arm, tools that might play at third base or second, but not at shortstop. His instincts and makeup are outstanding, and if he gets to his power as a pro, he'll play his way into a big league lineup. He should be drafted no later than the second round.

Lotzkar

It's an unprecedented year for talent in Canada, and Lotzkar has established himself as the consensus second-best Canadian prospect behind Phillippe Aumont. He played on a club team coached by Doug Mathieson, the father of Phillies righthander Scott. Lotzkar, 17, developed physically at the perfect time, adding 15 pounds of muscle and two inches between last summer and this spring. His fastball sits near 91 mph, touching 94. His arm action is loose and clean, though he doesn't repeat his delivery and remains unrefined as a pitcher. His command is erratic. His breaking ball has improved, while his changeup is below-average. Lotzkar turned in an impressive showing in Florida in front of a throng of scouts in April, and because he's projectable and has shown feel for two potentially plus pitches, he's a candidate to be taken in the supplemental round.

Cozart

In this year's draft class, Cozart is a commodity as a college position player with passable skills in the field and at the plate. One scout described him as a "manager's dream" for his hustle and steadiness. He swung the bat best down the stretch this year and may have played his way into the supplemental round. A player in the mold of Adam Everett, his glove is ahead of his bat and he's an above-average defender with solid-average range, supple hands and enough arm to make the play in the hole. He is a solid-average runner. Cozart is a dead-pull hitter with solid-average bat speed and gap power. He cheats on fastballs on the inner half and can be susceptible to balls on the outer half of the plate. How well he handles the wood bat will determine his ultimate value, but he's a backup big league shortstop at worst.

Carroll

Signability concerns have caused Carroll to slide in two previous drafts, but he should go in the first five rounds this June. He ranked as Missouri's top high school pitching prospect in 2003 (ahead of eventual 2006 first-rounders Max Scherzer and Kris Johnson), when a scholarship to play quarterback at Purdue scared teams off. Carroll didn't play much in football and wasn't allowed to play baseball in two years with the Boilermakers, so he transferred to Missouri State. He started for the Bears at quarterback in the fall of 2005 and showed a live arm as a pitcher last spring, but his demands for top-three-round money as a draft-eligible sophomore knocked him down to the Angels in the 16th round. Los Angeles wanted to follow his progress in the Cape Cod League, but he came down with biceps tendinitis and returned to Missouri State, giving up football. Carroll has shown progress in his second year back on the mound, and has added 15 pounds of muscle and now carries 220 on his 6-foot-5 frame. His fastball sits at 91-92 mph and touches 94, and he has done a better job of maintaining his velocity through games and the season as a whole. He has replaced a flat changeup with a low-80s splitter and added a low-80s slider to go with a slow curveball that he uses as a change of pace. Carroll trusts his secondary stuff and locates his pitches more now than he did a year ago. He projects more as a reliever in pro ball, a role in which he could air out his fastball and wouldn't have to rely on his breaking pitches as much.

Soto

Of Puerto Rico's three most established prospects, Soto has the best present hitting ability, showing more power than Reynoldo Navarro and making better contact than Angel Morales. Unlike those two, Soto isn't expected to stay in the middle of the diamond. He's an adequate defender with solid-average arm strength who has improved his lateral quickness and running since last fall, but ultimately Soto's bat is going to have to carry him. He has a rudimentary feel for the strike zone, with a willingness to work counts. He has a whippy swing with plus bat speed, though his swing gets long at times. Balls jump off his barrel, and if he can continue to make adjustments he might develop into a heart-of-the-order slugger with lots of doubles and 25 home runs a year.

Stouffer

First baseman/third baseman Blake Stouffer also has improved significantly for the Aggies. He barely played as a freshman and hit .259 as a sophomore, but he hinted at his breakout with a strong performance in the Alaska League last summer. Stouffer has jumped his average to .391 this spring and stole 20 bases in Texas A&M's run-happy attack. He's a switch-hitter who can hit for average and gap power, and he's a good athlete and runner, but his future defensive position has scouts perplexed. He doesn't have enough power to play on an infield corner as a pro, and he may not have the hands to handle second base, which would give him the best chance to make the majors. He could wind up as a center fielder or as a utilityman.

Bowman

Drew Bowman entered 2004 as one of the top high school lefties in the nation, but his velocity dropped and a commitment to Arizona State clouded his signability, so he fell to the Brewers in the 21st round. He redshirted in 2005 and pitched sparingly in 2006, prompting his transfer to Nebraska. Scouts have seen him touch 93 with his lively fastball this spring, but they'd like to see more of him to know if he's legitimate. In the last seven weeks before the NCAA regionals, he made two appearances and retired just one of the seven batters he faced. Bowman's secondary pitches are inconsistent, and there are questions about his mental toughness.

In our first 2007 Draft installment, we took a look at who the Reds could potentially take with the 15th overall pick.

Next up we're going to put the spotlight on who the Reds could potentially (or should) target with their two picks in the lengthy Supplemental round, the 34th & 53rd overall picks. I've just thrown a bunch of names out there that could go in either slot, as once you get past the top 10-12 guys, the next 30-50 aren't that far apart talent wise. I don't pretend to have any insider information, and  most baseball pundits don't venture a guess beyond the 1st round, so this is just a compilation of some interesting draft prospects.

Corey Brown, CF, Oklahoma State
All around athlete with big time pop and gold glove-esq CF defensive skills - but with potential holes in his swing. Sound familiar to anyone?

Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
Real wild card. Dominating stuff with mid 90's fastball & a nasty offspeed offering to go with pinpoint control. But he's got a weird motion, violent mechanics, and only pitches out of the stretch. Some see him as an ace, others as a closer, others as a TJ surgery waiting to happen.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Brad Suttle, 3B, Univ of Texas
If the Reds don't decide to go the Dominguez/Aherns route with their first pick, perhaps this is another way to get a bat from a corner IF spot. Strong Arm & good D to go with solid gap power, but he's slow, many wonder if he'll ever hit for power and he's only a sophomore so he'll have some serious leverage to use on Draft Day.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Kyle Russell, OF, Univ of Texas
Lefty/Lefty Athletic OF type with big time power but the same Stubbs type questions of whether his power is a non-wood bat mirage. Strikes out by the bushel. Just like Suttle, a sophomore seeking big time money who will have some leverage to use.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Kyle Blair, RHP, Los Gatos HS, Calif
Polished HS pitcher with excellent control and three good pitches to go with his low 90s fastball. But none of the three are well above average and he's a relative new comer to the scene after skyrocketing the last few months.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Aaron Poreda, LHP, Univ of San Francisco
Big 6-6 lefty with plus mid 90s fastball with excellent command. Might be Aaron Harang's left handed twin. No real solid pitches beyond his fastball though & has low career strikeout rates.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Nick Noonan, SS/2B, Francis Parker HS, Calif
So I'll let a little personal info slip in, this is the guy that I wish beyond hope that the Reds can nab at 34. Loads of Chase Utley comparisons fit in here. Big time left handed bat, extremely athletic, above average base stealer - above average at every tool, though not spectacular.  He'll be a middle infielder, but the knock on him is that despite being a SS up till now, he just won't cut it range or arm wise as a major league SS.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami Springs HS, Miami
Rated as one of the best, if not a close 2nd, defensive catchers available in the draft. Like most catchers, has questions on whether or not his bat will take him to the bigs.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Justin Jackson, SS, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.
Well above aveage defensive SS with a cannon for an arm. According to BA some scouts think he'll eventually hit for power, others don't. Prolific basestealer as well
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Pete Kozma, SS, Owasso HS, OK
Another Johnny Come lately who earned himself quite a bit of cash with a big senior year. Was projected as a 5th to 6th rounder this spring, now is being mentioned as a potential 1st round guy. Not a flashy guy, just solid at every key skill, and could be an every day MLB level SS. Supposedly has off the charts baseball smarts and fundamentals.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

J.P. Arenciba, C, Tennessee
Another catcher with a big time bat. However unlike the others previously listed, there are some, but not unanimous doubts that Arenciba is good enough to stay a catcher. Question is do you think his bat's special enough if he's a 1B?
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

That's about half the list, I'll see if we can finish the other half tomorrow

With the calendar turning to June, that means the MLB draft is just around the corner.

The Reds have themselves quite a few picks in the first 150, and to start us off, here is a quick rundown of players to look out for with the Reds 15th overall pick - guys who likely to be available and/or have been rumored to be linked with the Reds.

Matt Wieters, C/RP, Georgia Tech
Boras guy, may fall due to signing demands. Consensus best college hitter available (as a switch hitter no less), made even more elite by the fact he is a catcher. Also serves as the Yellow Jackets closer.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Matt Dominguez, 3B, HS
Reds are familiar with him as he attends the same high school as last year's X round pick Josh Ravin. Big time power bat combined with gold glove defense at third base.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Jason Heyward, OF/1B, HS
Huge monster power with good strike zone judgement from the left side. Plays CF now but will likely be a LF or 1B in the bigs. Scouting video shows he would be quite the athletic first baseman.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Kevin Aherns, SS/3B, HS
All around package from Texas, a switch hitting SS who may stay there or slide over to 3B. Was on no one's radar until the last few months, when he rocketed up the charts with a huge senior year (a la Jay Bruce).
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Blake Beavan, RHP, HS
Baseball America reports that the Reds would love to see Beavan fall to them, but it's highly likely that someone will take him before 15. Big 6'7 righty with a nasty 96mph heater and pinpoint control.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee
Baseball Prospectus floated his name as a potential Reds target due to Chris Buckley's history of only drafting College Bats in the first round (and the lack of them available). Boras client just like Wieters. Been injured for most of the season, but a lefty/lefty speedster in CF with power potential.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
Probably the best college power hitter available. Excellent eye & strikezone judgement. Former catcher turned 1B, has had a breakout senior season at Florida after underwhelming in 2006. Not really a defensive stalwort, although the scouting reports say he's much improved at 1B this season.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Devin Mesoraco, C, HS
Not even making Top 50 lists just a few months ago, another HS bat making noise just weeks before the draft. Baseball America now lists him as the best HS catcher available. Excellent defender with a plus arm and big power bat. What's not to like?
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
The Schmidt rumor has popped up in a few places, with the Reds taking the big polished lefty ace from the SEC. Schmidt has a plus fastball and a plus changeup to go with excellent command. Some may say it's an overdraft because he's listed in most places in the 22-28 range, but it's not overdrafting if you get the guy you really wanted.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Well, here is our chance to be like the cool kids with all the Red Reporter meet ups back east.

Yes, I know this may just be me (and possibly Justin of JinAZ fame) on Wednesday night, but occasionally I've met up with posters from here and Redszone, so I'm throwing it out there as an open invite.

I've got tickets to Monday & Wednesday's games, so if anyone is looking to enjoy an adult beverage or two and talk about the Reds before the game, post here and we'll hammer out the details.

Fellow SBNation Blog Beyond the Boxscore (a daily read for me) offered up their 2007 preview of the Reds today - and lets just say they didn't pull any punches

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/3/17/81715/2385

I gotta say, though, it's tough to be positive about the Reds. Sure, in Homer Bailey and maybe Chris Denorfia, the Reds have a couple of kids who could make a difference, but probably not enough this year to matter. In the big picture, though, the Reds are built around a couple of starters coming off of career years, an incredibly shaky bullpen, and an offense that...well, better be improved on defense.

. . .

If you're going to take on a lot of risk, you want to make sure you have the possibility for an appropriate reward. By building an old team with too many stopgaps at important positions, the Reds have left open the possibility of a disastrous season without the upside of a very successful one.

Sure, if Griffey stays healthy, Arroyo and Harang repeat, and Homer Bailey provides a Jered Weaver-like second half, the Reds could easily crack .500 and maybe even find themselves briefly in the wild card race. But it's tough to see even that degree of luck finding its way to Cincinnati.

The Reds may be a better team than their division rival Pirates, but that doesn't mean they're a better-run franchise, at least for the next year or so. It's tough to imagine a nastier thing to say, but I'm afraid it's a fair judgment. One can only hope disaster strikes early enough that Krivsky doesn't last much longer.

I would tend to agree with most everything Jeff posted - except that I think Krivsky will be given longer to sort things out. Doesn't exactly bring sunshine to your day, but the truth can be a little tough to swallow sometimes.

I'm happier with the direction of the franchise, but not happy, if that makes sense. My secret twisted hope for the season is that the Reds bomb big time out of the gate - forcing Krivsky to pull a Terry Ryan of 2006 - dump all the worthless/over the hill vets and go cheap & young - and salvage whatever you can out of it.

Hey everyone - So here's my rundown of today's game.

I'm new the site - and I won't pretend I'm a die hard Royals fan - I'm actually a lifelong Reds fanatic and a frequent poster over at Royals Review's SBNation Sister site Red Reporter.

But I am an AZ resident, and over the last several years have become more and more a fan of quite a few KC players (Particularly Teahen, Greinke & DeJesus)

I've been poking around here for a while, and after today's game I thought I'd break my cherry.

Anyway - I was able to skip out of work this afternoon and head over to Surprise to catch the Royals/Rockies. Here's what I saw.

Zack Grienke - Excellent excellent day from him. Was pretty filthy - albiet against the Rox B Squad. Was up at 92 with his fastball and was spotting it pretty well. He was running the full speed ladder - with his big looping curve coming in at 69 (he only threw it 3 times that I remember) with his changeup in the mid 70s and his slurvy/slider along with a two seamer in the mid 80s. Had two K's looking from his breaking stuff.

Dotel - was dialing it up today. Hit 96 at one point and 95 on a few others. Doubt he broke a sweat.

Kenny Ray - Was just awful. Baker hit an absolute bomb off him to LF - into the Parking Lot as a no doubter. Hit it like he knew it was coming. The next two hits were rockets as well.

Teahen - One of the Rockies lefites (Mabry?) got good wood on a shot to the gap, and he noticably went towards the line with his first step, but recovered nicely to make the grab. Other than that the few hit his way he looked more comfortable than when I saw him last week. Big fly to CF that left the yard. German right before him hit nearly an identical shot that was about five feet lower and bounced off the top of the wall. Teahen's was nearly a mirror just with more umph behind it. Also had a really nice swipe off Lopez - Ianetta didn't really have a chance to get him.

Gordon - made two solid plays in the field - but nothing really at the plate that was noteworthy.

Other than that - it was an enjoyable afternoon, gorgeous day at about 88 degrees out here in AZ.

Seriously - did I miss a fad when long hair suddenly became en vogue?

Homer Bailey

Gary Majewski

Paul Wilson

Eric Milton

Bronson Arroyo

Not that I really truly care how they players crop their dew - I just find it amusing and odd on some level. It's like the bizarro world Marge Schott era Reds.

I promise this will be the last time I talk all season about players grooming. Well - hopefully the last time. Unless others have a drastic need to be made fun of. Then the deal is off.

In light of Reds 2006 No. 1 pick's performance at Billings this summer, I decided to do a little investigation.

This is a question I've always had, When does whether or not a player can hit matter to their future chances as a major leaguer? Is it rookie ball? Is it A or AA ball? Using Drew Stubbs as my main point of debate, I posed the question. Does hitting in Rookie Ball matter?

First, I wanted to look at some of Drew's peers. Coming out of college, Stubbs was considered one of the best college hitters available.

I'm using OPS for comparison - an imperfect stat, but an excellent quick and dirty way to show batting eye & power.

Lets look back a few years just to let some history develop. These are the top College draftable bats of the year, taken in the 1st round of that year's draft.

2002 Draft 1st Round College Bats
Drew Meyer - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he OPS'd 593 - and he's been awful ever since. A career AAAA player.
Khalil Greene - Skipped Rookie Ball - Put up an OPS of 893 in High A in his first year.
Russ Adams - Skipped Rookie Ball - OPS'd 933 for Low A in his first year
Nick Swisher - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A with an OPS of 888.

2003 Draft 1st round College Bats
Rickie Weeks - Played 1 game at Rookie ball before moving to Low A to OPS 1050
Michael Aubrey - Skipped Rookie ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 960.
Aaron Hill - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 938.
Brian Anderson - Played 13 games at Rookie ball (and OPSing 1084 in 58PA) before moving on to High A and put up an OPS of 925.
Brad Snyder - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he put up an OPS of 860
Conor Jackson - Skipped Rookie Ball where he moved onto High A and OPS'd 943

2004 Draft 1st round College Bats
Stephen Drew - Sat out a year, but when he came back, he skipped Rookie Ball and started at High A where he put up an OPS of 1224
Josh Fields - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off at High A where he put up an OPS of 778
Landon Powell - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he put up an OPS of 725
Richard Robnett - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A where he put up an OPS of 841

So we have a couple of players on there who started off with a 1st season OPS under 800 (like Stubbs 768). Drew Meyer, a player who has proven that he pretty much can't hit at any level going on four years now. Landon Powell, a catcher who didn't start out on fire a full level above Stubbs, and Josh Fields, who didn't play baseball full time until he was drafted, but still put up the same numbers as Stubbs two full levels above him. Fields went crazy the next summer, and is now regarded as one of the White Sox top prospects.

The rest, all put up better numbers, and they did it against better competition at a higher level.

But that could be just a small sample size. So, just for fun, here is a link to every Red playing right now, every Red from the last couple of seasons, several AAAA players, and a few top prospects in the Reds system right now. Take a peek at how everyone did in Rookie ball, and how old they were when they went thru that level. You'll notice that for College players - the overwhelming majority were deemed a good enough hitters to skip rookie ball altogether.

Drew Stubbs - College Player - 21 - .251AVG/.366OBP/.402SLG/.768OPS

Drafted as a College Player
David Ross - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason LaRue - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.366OBP/.410SLG/.776OPS
Scott Hatteberg - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Rich Aurilia - College Player - 20 - .337AVG/.453OBP/.465SLG/.918OPS
Ryan Freel - JunCollege Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Chris Denorfia - College Player - 22 - .340AVG/.425OBP/.405SLG/.830OPS
Sean Casey - College player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joe Randa - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Dane Sardinha - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jacob Cruz - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Larson - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Tim Hummell - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Barry Larkin - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
John Vander Wal - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jermaine Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Corky Miller - College Player - 22 - .271AVG/.455OBP/.450SLG/.905OPS
Brendan Harris - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jesse Guiterrez - College Player - 23 - .294/AVG.302OBP/.550SLG/.852OPS
Matt Kata - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Andy Abad - College Player - 21 - .248AVG/.326OBP/.317SLG/.643OPS
Aaron Boone - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.362OBP/.453SLG/.815OPS
Kelly Stinnett - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Steve Smitherman - College Player - 21 - .316AVG/.373OBP/.551SLG/.924OPS
Eric Valent - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Walker - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brady Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball

Drafted as a High School Player
Javier Valentin - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.290OBP/.356SLG/.646OPS
Royce Clayton - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Phillips - HS Player - 18 - .290AVG/.352OBP/.408SLG/.760OPS
Edwin Encarnacion - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .284AVG/.333OBP/.384SLG/.717OPS
Adam Dunn - HS Player - 18 - .288AVG/.404OBP/.424SLG/.828OPS
Ken Griffey - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joey Votto - HS Player - 18 & 19 - .296AVG/.407OBP/.506SLG/.913OPS
Jay Bruce - HS Player - 18 - .266AVG/.341OBP/.484SLG/.825OPS
Austin Kearns - HS Player - 18 - .315AVG/.433OBP/.426SLG/.859OPS
Felipe Lopez - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Hollandsworth - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason Romano - HS Player - 18 - .257AVG/.340OBP/.413SLG/.753OPS
Brandon Watson - HS Player - 17 - .303AVG/.365OBP/.319SLG/.684SLG
Norris Hopper - HS Player - 19 & 20 - .279AVG/.350OBP/.314SLG/.664OPS
Cody Ross - HS Player - 18 - .218AVG/.303OBP/.401SLG/.704OPS
Reggie Taylor - HS Player - 18 - .222AVG/.295OBP/.314SLG/.609OPS
Russell Branyon - HS Player - 18 - 211AVG/.316OBP/.357SLG/.673OPS
Dernell Stenson - HS Player - 18 - .216AVG/.332OBP/.330SLG/.662OPS
Gookie Dawkins - HS Player - 18 - .241AVG/.315OBP/.308SLG/.623OPS

Signed as a Free Agent
Anderson Machado - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.318OBP/.296SLG/.614OPS
Miguel Perez - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .345AVG/.406OBP/.406SLG/.812OPS
Juan Castro - FA Player - 19 - .276AVG/.375OBP/.327SLG/.702OPS
Wily Mo Pena - FA Player - 17 - .247AVG/.303OBP/.446SLG/.749OPS
Ray Olmedo - FA Player - 18 - .236AVG/.286OBP/.323SLG/.609OPS
D'Angelo Jiminez - FA Player - 17 - .280AVG/.354OBP/.449SLG/.803OPS
Ruben Mateo - FA Player - 17 - .301AVG/.376OBP/.455SLG/.831OPS
Jose Guillen - FA Player - 18 - .264AVG/.313OBP/.427SLG/.740OPS

And here are the players from the 2002, 2003 & 2004 Billings teams who did not post at least an .800 OPS
2002
Brad Correll
Daniel Mateo
Walter Olmstead
Alan Moye
Steve Booth
Troy Cairns
Manuel Paula
Rafael Motooka
Jarrod Schmidt
Ryan Fry
Jared Humphries
Yinner Colina
Jeremy Ison
2003
Chris Dickerson
Rusty Beale
Rusty Beale
Phil Gentry
Robert Mosby
Troy Cairns
Juan Acevedo
Will Hudson
Chad Ziemendorf
Kyle Smith
Clay Cleveland
Manuel Paula
Jeff Urgelles
Ivan Reyes
Tonys Gutierrez
Rafael Motooka
2004
Bradley Key
Trevor Lawhorn
Paul Janish
Drew Anderson
Travis Kaats
Craig Tatum
Drew Phillips
Elvin Beltre
B.J. Szymanski
Jason Ellis
Tiago Campos
J.D. Roberts
Jordan Belcher
Matt Levering
Reynaldo Gonzalez
The HS players and FA signings are a big mish mash of results, but because of their relative young age, all had years to develop before moving up to the higher levels. You'll notice the 2002-2004 Billings list littered with washouts and failures, not a single real prospect on that list.

So there you have it. My first breakdown of the season. Does Stubbs still have a chance to turn out to be something? Sure, the game of baseball has lots of quirky ways about it. Stubbs could go ballistic this summer and render this entire discussion mute. But it certainly doesn't look promising.

All points to skewer or help build upon my methods and conclusions are welcomed and encouraged.
Edited some formatting & spelling @5pm

No punchline needed.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9999764

MESA, Ariz. -- Oft-injured Kerry Wood is out again -- this time because of a flub in a hot tub.

The Chicago Cubs pitcher is not expected to throw off the mound for a few days after he slipped this week getting out of a hot tub at home. Wood landed on his stomach and chest.

"It was just a little spill," Wood said Thursday. "I didn't think anything of it. Nothing's wrong. It's just going to be a few extra days. My arm feels great. My body feels good."

Wood said he probably would not have thrown off the mound until Friday had he not gotten hurt. He participated in most drills on Thursday when pitchers and catchers worked out for the first time.

Bothered by an injured right shoulder the past three seasons, Wood is being converted to a reliever after being limited to four starts last year.

I didn't get an answer in the fantasy thread, so I thought i'd break this out to hopefully get a response.

Weren't we in the midst of creating a Red Reporter based OOTP league for 2007?

Did I miss out or did we just decide it wasn't workable.

I was really excited about the idea - hopefully it is still a go.

Fellow SB Nation blog author John Sickels wades into the fray of how Edwin Encarnacion does for the rest of his baseball career.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/1/19/121036/647#commenttop

Besides having him leave the Reds as a FA in 2012 to go to Seattle, some interesting thoughts of what he thinks young Edwin's career will turn out to be.

I've been thinking more lately that this could be a part of Wayne Krivsky's strategy that I'm not giving enough credit. - JD

Turns out the bailing out of free agents Rich Aurilia & Scott Schoeneweis will have some positive consequences. According to Jim Callis of Baseball America, the MLB Draft order for 2007 is just about set.

Here is what the picks are looking like for the Reds

1st round
15th Overall
1st Round Supplemental
37th overall (Aurilia)
52nd overall (Schoeneweis)
2nd Round
79th overall
3rd Round
104th overall (Aurilia)
109th overall

Some potential changes. If the Dbacks sign last year's 1st round pick Max Scherzer before the draft deadline - every pick above 64th moves up one. There is also the potential for three more picks to be added to the 1st Round Supplemental section, if Chan Ho Park, David Wells & Ron Villone sign elsewhere.

Otherwise, it's been a long, long while since the Reds have had that many picks early in the draft.

The best part of that news is that in baseball circles it's thought that the 2007 draft is one of the strongest in years. Hopefully the Reds take full advantage of this opportunity.

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet

The best Reds beat reporter Marc Lancaster is moving onto greener pastures in Florida - taking a new job covering the Devil Rays for the Tampa Trib.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/12/ok-heres-deal.asp

OK, here's the deal

Since so many people have inquired...as of right now, this is what's going on with my job situation. I've interviewed for a job covering the Devil Rays for the Tampa Tribune, been offered that job and accepted it. I don't know exactly when I'll be leaving, because there's still some red tape to sort through at the corporate level. Until all that gets settled, I'm still here, blogging away.

To be perfectly honest, this blog played a huge part in this new opportunity coming my way, and I'm thankful to all of you for that. The response here has been great since the beginning, and I hope it continues.

Thanks again -- I'll keep you posted.

In the comments he mentions that a fellow Post reporter named Trent Rosencrans would be taking over his spot. Anyone familiar with his work with U of C?

For those who haven't been following, the last two weeks Baseball America has been slowly revealing who they feel are the best 20 prospects in each minor league, and the Reds have been fairly well represented this year, unlike previous years. Impressively so, is that the Reds have three No. 1 slots out of the 16 total leagues (to be fair, Homer Bailey is two of those 3, but still)

Here is a rundown of all the Reds affiliated leagues, and what spot Baseball America placed Reds.

Gulf Coast
No Reds made the list

Pioneer
Drew Stubbs 7th
Chris Valiaka 13th

Midwest
Jay Bruce 1st
Johnny Cueto 12th

Florida State
Homer Bailey 1st
Johnny Cueto 14th

Southern League
Homer Bailey 1st
Joey Votto 7th

International
Chris Denorfia 20th

Sorry the link to the International League isn't available, as it will be revealed online on Wednesday, although magazine subscribers have already gotten all of the league breakdowns in the mail.

Impressive that both Cueto & Bailey make the list on two levels. Even more so that Bailey is considered the best prospect in two leagues. Bruce was the fourth HS OF taken in the '05 draft, yet he ranks above higher picks Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin, who both played in the Midwest this year.

At least as far as impact talents go, things may be looking up for the Reds farm system.

Or pretty close to one. So much for him being on the market this decade. On another note, can you imagine how many tractors Oswalt can buy now with that money?

HOUSTON -- Roy Oswalt rang in his 29th birthday on Tuesday with the best gift imaginable -- a nice fat contract that probably ensures he will end his career as a Houston Astro.

Following the right-hander's start against the Brewers, whom Houston beat, 10-3, the Astros announced they inked their ace right-hander to a five-year contract, with an option for a sixth year. The contract, unprecedented for a Houston pitcher, is worth $73 million, but Oswalt could make as much as $87 million should the club pick up the option year.

Oswalt will be paid $13 million in 2007 and '08, $14 million in '09, $15 million in 2010 and $16 million in 2011. The club can either exercise a $2 million buyout after '11, or pick up the $16 million club option for 2012.

Oswalt also received a full no-trade clause, and he'll donate $100,000 per season for the length of the contract to the Astros in Action Foundation.

"Obviously, Roy's star quality is apparent to everybody," general manager Tim Purpura said. "But All-Star and World Series participation, [League Championship Series] MVP, 20-game winner two years in a row ... really, he's the epitome of what I see our organization being about."

Added club owner Drayton McLane: "Look at the significant wins he's had over five years. It's his competitiveness. I don't know anyone that has a more burning desire to win. Roy is one of the very few premier pitchers in baseball, and he's only 29 years old. The best is yet to come."

Oswalt's first comments were directed toward the Astros, as he expressed his appreciation for the only organization that found him in tiny Weir, Miss., and drafted him in the 23rd round in 1996. He then became emotional while thanking his parents, Billy and Jean.

"The first person I called was my dad," a choked up Oswalt said. "The things he's done for me growing up have been tremendous. Both of them, my dad and mom."

The Reds have a lucky record so far this year. Let me explain using the idea of a Pythag Record.

If you're not familiar with the idea of a what a Baseball Pythag record, here the basic idea.

It takes the simplest idea about teams winning in baseball, and puts it into stat form. Essentially, the more runs you score and the less runs you allow the other team to score, the better your record ends up being at the end of the year.

It's based on taking the Runs Scored and Runs allowed, and coming up with a Winning Percentage. Multiply that by the games played and you have your Pythag Record.

To show how this works out - Check out these numbers

Reds   RS/RA       Actual      Pythag    Diff
2002 - (709/774) - 75-87   -   78-84   -   3
2003 - (694/885) - 63-99   -   69-93   -   6
2004 - (750/907) - 67-95   -   76-86   -   9
2005 - (820/889) - 75-87   -   73-89   -   2

How does this have anything to do with the Reds and the chase of the 2006 Wildcard?

Let's take a look at the Top 8 Wildcard contender?s actual records

Cincinnati      57-55
Los Angeles  57-55
Arizona         56-56
Philadelphia  54-57
Colorado       54-57
San Fran       54-58
Houston        53-58
Milwaukee     52-59

Now - how about each teams Pythag records

Los Angeles  61-51
Colorado       57-54
San Fran      56-56
Philly           55-56
Arizona         55-57
Houston        54-57
Cincinnati      53-59
Milwaukee     48-63

In tight race, you need everything to go your way to win out. The Reds have been several games lucky on the positive side of the margin, while the rest of the contenders, save Milwaukee, have been unlucky. And in baseball, luck tends to equal out. And with time running out on the Wildcard, the Pythag record is not on the Reds side. Translated over the course of the season, the Pythag Record shows the Reds finishing at 77-85, which won't get them anywhere near the playoffs. Something to think about as the Reds take on the Cardinals.

If you're interested in more about the Pythag Record, MLB.com's Standings page now allows you to follow this easily by selecting the "X W-L" box to go with your Home/Road Splits.

Also, Baseball Prospectus has a more in-depth look at the Pythag Record here. And the actual formula used to compute the Pythag Record Winning Percentage is (RAx1.83)/(RAx1.83) + (RSx1.83).

Here is your latest rumor

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5358

You haven't seen Wayne Krivsky's Reds in many trade rumors this weekend. That's not to say the Reds aren't trying to make moves. They have one offer out on a player that would really signal a new era in Cincy, though it's unlikely to happen.

And the follow up posted about 30 minutes ago

The name? Craig Wilson. At least three teams are in on him right now, but once again, the Pirates are asking for the moon. The Reds willingness to get in on a rental player signals that they're looking to win now, whether it's to catch the Cards or to hang on to the wild card. The team is now willing to take on some salary if that's what's needed, a big change from the old ownership. Wilson is hardly the only name that the Reds have looked into, although their focus is still on pitching.

A name that perhaps has been forgotten among Reds fans makes his major league debut on the hill for the Angels on Monday.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060716&content_id=1559719& ;vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana

Dustin Moseley will make his Major League debut on Monday against the Indians and Joe Saunders will follow his Triple-A Salt Lake teammate on Tuesday.

The pair will make spot starts to give Jered Weaver and Kelvim Escobar extra time to recover from minor injuries. Weaver is experiencing tendinitis in his biceps, while Escobar has a similar problem in his elbow.

Moseley, who is 8-4 this year with a 3.99 ERA for the Bees, found out just before his scheduled start on Saturday that he was getting called up.

"When [Bees manager Brian Harper] called me in there, the first thing I thought when he said Bill Stoneman said something was maybe I'm traded or something," Moseley said.

"I kind of sat there with my jaw on the ground. It was a dream come true."

If all goes to plan, Moseley will make only one start with both Escobar and Weaver set to pitch next weekend in Kansas City. The right-hander, though, isn't discouraged by his short stint in the Majors.

"I'm part of the Anaheim organization and if I'm in Salt Lake or if I'm here I just want to do something to benefit the ballclub," he said.

Moseley will have some level of comfort on Monday, with manager Mike Scioscia planning on starting former Bees teammate, Mike Napoli, behind the plate.

The Angels acquired Moseley from the Reds in 2004 in exchange for starter Ramon Ortiz. A first-round pick in the 2000 draft, the pitcher said he improved his technique last year while recovering from a right shoulder strain that limited him to 17 starts.

"I have more maturity as a pitcher," he said. "I just learned some things about my delivery and different things that helped my arm and it's actually helped me throw more strikes this year."

The Angels optioned infielder Erick Aybar to Salt Lake after Sunday's game to make room for Moseley.

From the sound of his interviews after the trade, Bowden really burned this kid and his family and they were happy to be rid of the Reds.

I've always had a soft spot for Dustin, and wish him nothing but the best for the Angels.

You can thank Dan O'Brien for flipping him for Ramon Ortiz, he of the 170IP at over 5.00ERA in 2005.

By Awesome, I mean Awesomely Bad.

Everyone knows from watching just how ugly the blood bath has been, but I decided to look a little further.

Here are some fun with numbers for the month of June.

Houston Astros Series

Starters - 18.0IP, 13H, 4ER, 5BB, 15K, 1.00WHIP, 2.00ERA
Relievers - 11.0IP, 12H, 6ER, 2BB, 3K, 1.27WHIP, 4.91ERA

St. Louis Cardinals Series

Starters - 17.2IP, 18H, 6ER, 4BB, 10K, 1.25WHIP, 3.06ERA
Relievers - 9.1IP, 5H, 4ER, 2BB, 3K, 0.75WHIP, 3.86ERA

Chicago Cubs Series

Starters - 26.2IP, 22H, 10ER, 5BB, 18K, 1.01WHIP, 3.38ERA
Relievers - 9.1IP, 15H, 9ER, 2BB, 7K, 1.82WHIP, 8.68ERA

Milwaukee Brewers Series

Starters - 20.0IP, 20H, 8ER, 6BB, 24K, 1.30WHIP, 3.60ERA
Relievers - 9.0IP, 6H, 3ER, 4BB, 6K, 1.11WHIP, 3.00ERA

Chicago White Sox Series

Starters - 14.2IP, 23H, 15ER, 6BB, 11K, 1.98WHIP, 9.21ERA
Relievers - 12.1IP, 20H, 12ER, 3BB, 4K, 1.87WHIP, 8.76ERA

New York Mets Series

Starters - 21.0IP, 21H, 8ER, 4BB, 12K, 1.19WHIP, 3.43ERA
Relievers - 5.0IP, 9H, 8ER, 4BB, 1K, 2.60WHIP, 14.40ERA

Which gives us the following for the season

Starters - 443.2IP, 467H, 209ER, 119BB, 335K, 1.32WHIP, 4.24ERA
Relievers - 198.0IP, 223H, 113ER, 74BB, 135K, 1.50WHIP, 5.14ERA

Here is how both the Bullpen and the Starters fair when compared to the Rest of baseball

Bullpen IP - 23rd out of 30
Bullpen ERA - 25th out of 30
Bullpen WHIP - 26th out of 30
Bullpen Hits Allowed - 23rd out of 30
Bullpen AVG Against - 28th out of 30
Bullpen OBP Against - 25th out of 30
Bullpen SLG Against - 30th out of 30
Bullpen OPS Against - 29th out of 30

Starters IP - 6th out of 30
Starters ERA - 6th out of 30
Starters WHIP - 7th out of 30
Starters Hits Allowed - 22nd out of 30
Starters AVG Against - 13th out of 30
Starters OBP Against - 6th out of 30
Starters SLG Against - 16th out of 30
Starters OPS Against - 10th out of 30

So there you have it Reds fans. The Bullpen and the Starters are near polar opposites in comparison to the rest of baseball.

The aspect of baseball that is typically toughest to construct, and therefor by far the most expensive(and the Reds Achilles Heel), starting pitching, is excelling for the Reds in just about every way. Keep in mind too, that the Reds starters numbers include 40 innings of Dave Williams blowouts, so the numbers since his depature have been even higher against the league.

The part of baseball which is typically, in comparison, the easiest and cheapest to construct, is failing the Reds and will, in the end, cost the team any shot at a post season birth.

What may be most maddening about the stats above, is that there are 22 other teams in baseball who have asked their bullpen to throw more innings than the Reds have in 2006. So naturally the question must be asked, if they have been bad with so little work, how much worse would it be if they had to throw more innings?

Here is a stat breakdown of the Reds pitchers thru the game on Wednesday, June 14th.

Make sure to take into account the small sample sizes - especially those of relievers like Joe Mays, Justin Germano and Mike Gosling, who have 5 innings pitched combined as a Red this season.

On the season
Reds Starters - 408.0IP, 423H, 186ER, 109BB, 312K, 6.88K/9, 2.40BB/9, 1.30WHIP, 4.10ERA
Reds Relievers - 183.2IP, 201H, 98ER, 69BB, 129K, 6.32K/9, 3.38BB/9, 1.47WHIP, 4.80ERA

Category leaders
ERA - Arroyo - MLB 4th
Strikeouts - Harang - MLB T-4th
Innings Pitched - Arroyo - MLB T-5th
K/9 - Harang - MLB - 7th
K/BB - Harang - MLB - 10th

Reds Starters

Average Pitches thrown by the Starting Pitcher
99.9

Pitches thrown per Game Started
Arroyo - 109.3
Harang - 105.9
Claussen - 97.9
Ramirez - 96.3
Milton - 94.5
Williams - 85.6

Quality Starts
Arroyo - 10
Harang - 7
Ramirez - 6
Milton - 6
Claussen - 4
Williams - 3

Total Pitches
Arroyo - 1530 (710S/538B)
Harang - 1479 (715S/524B)
Claussen - 1270 (591S/450B)
Ramirez - 876 (396S/312B)
Milton - 756 (339S/242B)
Williams - 683 (290S/258B)

Pitches per Plate Appearance
Harang - 3.91
Arroyo - 3.90
Claussen - 3.79
Ramirez - 3.73
Williams - 3.52
Milton - 3.44

Innings Pitched
Arroyo - 96.2
Harang - 89.2
Claussen - 75.0
Ramirez - 55.0
Milton - 52.2
Williams - 40.0

WHIP (Walks + Hits per IP)
Milton - 1.12
Arroyo - 1.14
Ramirez - 1.24
Harang - 1.28
Claussen - 1.48
Williams - 1.75

K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 Innings)
Arroyo - 6.98
Harang - 9.03
Claussen - 6.84
Ramirez - 6.71
Milton - 5.64
Williams - 3.60

BB/9 (Walks per 9 Innings)
Milton - 1.54
Arroyo - 1.86
Harang - 2.31
Ramirez - 2.45
Claussen - 3.12
Williams - 3.60

Reds Bullpen

Total Pitches
Coffey - 562 (246S/213B)
Weathers - 499 (200S/205B)
Hammond - 378 (174S/124B)
White - 371 (165S/123B)
Belisle - 330 (146S/131B)
Mercker - 286 (125S/113B)
Burns - 199 (90S/71B)
Shackelford - 160 (63S/68B)
Yan - 100 (40S/47B)
Mays - 28 (10S/11B)
Gosling - 21 (7S/10B)
Germano - 17(6S/9B)

Pitches per Plate Appearance
Germano - 4.25
Mercker - 4.03
Belisle - 3.94
Coffey - 3.65
Weathers - 3.64
Hammond - 3.63
Burns - 3.49
Shackelford - 3.48
Yan - 3.45
White - 3.37
Mays - 3.11
Gosling - 3.00

Innings Pitched
Coffey - 36.1
Weathers - 31.0
White - 25.1
Hammond - 24.2
Belisle - 18.2
Mercker - 15.0
Burns - 10.1
Shackelford - 9.1
Yan - 6.2
Mays - 3.0
Gosling - 1.1
Germano - 1.0

WHIP (Walks + Hits per IP)
Mays - 0.00
Germano - 1.00
Coffey - 1.24
Hammond - 1.26
Weathers - 1.45
White - 1.46
Gosling - 1.50
Belisle - 1.50
Yan - 1.65
Mercker - 1.67
Shackelford - 1.82
Burns - 2.61

K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 Innings)
Shackelford - 7.71
Hammond - 7.30
Burns - 6.97
Gosling - 6.75
Yan - 6.75
Coffey - 6.44
White - 6.04
Mays - 6.00
Mercker - 6.00
Weathers - 5.81
Belisle - 5.79
Germano - 0.00

BB/9 (Walks per 9 Innings)
Mays - 0.00
White - 1.42
Hammond - 1.46
Burns - 2.61
Coffey - 2.97
Belisle - 4.34
Weathers - 4.65
Mercker - 4.80
Shackelford - 5.79
Yan - 6.75
Gosling - 6.75
Germano - 9.00

For the Chicago series

Reds Starters - 26.2IP, 22H, 10ER, 5BB, 18K, 1.01WHIP, 3.38ERA

Reds Relievers - 9.1IP, 15H, 9ER, 2BB, 7K, 1.82WHIP, 8.68ERA

This mirrors the trend on the season so far, with the bullpen being the boat anchor for the pitching staff numbers as a whole.

Reds Starters - 388.0IP, 405H, 178ER, 103BB, 288K, 1.31WHIP, 4.13ERA

Reds Relievers - 174.2IP, 195H, 95ER, 65BB, 123K, 1.49WHIP, 4.90ERA

Take out Todd Coffey's numbers(who didn't see any action during the Chicago series), and the bullpen is just plain scary

140.2IP, 164H, 88ER, 55BB, 97K, 1.56WHIP, 5.63ERA

If the Reds harbor any hopes of making October noise in 2006, this has to be reversed. And quickly.

Apparently, there is a huge link between Albert Pujols and Jason Grimsley. They have the same supplier...err...trainer.

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/so-weve-got-some-affidavit-names-179400.php

Everyone's guessing about who the blacked-out names in the Jason Grimsley report are, and it has been a fun parlor game so far. But we all knew eventually the names would get out. And we've been digging around ... and some sources have given us some names.

How reliable are these names? We feel pretty confident in them, but we can't go 100 percent, since the information is secondhand. We'll say this: If Bud Selig issuing a press release naming the names is a 10, and picking a player at random out of the Baseball Encyclopedia is a 1, we're at an 8.

So. Let's do it then. Remember: Betting lines are for entertainment purposes only.

First: The person who told Grimsley about the positive test in 2003. That's former Royals general manager Allard Baird.

As many people have guessed, one of the "former players" who were sold out by Grimsley: Sammy Sosa. Our source(s) couldn't confirm if the other was Rafael Palmeiro.

Nothing new or exciting about that name. Then it starts to get interesting. We've heard amphetamine rumors of Miguel Tejada, but we can't confirm that. What we can confirm? The doozy.

Grimsley says that a former employee of [redacted] and personal fitness trainer to several Major League Baseball players once referred him to an amphetamine source. Later, this source -- not the trainer -- provided him with "amphetamines, anabolic steroids and human growth hormone." This trainer? His name is Chris Mihlfeld, a Kansas City-based "strength and conditioning guru." (And former Strength And Conditioning Coordinator for the Royals.)

Does Mihlfeld's name sound familiar? If it doesn't, he -- and we assure you, this gives us no pleasure to write this -- has been Albert Pujols' personal trainer since before Pujols was drafted by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 1999 draft. We have no confirmation that Pujols' name is in the affidavit ... but Mihlfeld's is. If you read the document, it doesn't say the trainer/Mihlfeld supplied all the HGH and what-not; it just says the trainer was the referrer.

Yeah. Sigh. We just report what we're told, folks. Ever hope your source is wrong? This is one of those times.

I'll chime in with picks as they happen, and draft discussion should go here. Fun times, this day's kind of like Christmas. - JD

Well, today is the day.

Here is the lowdown.

The draft starts at 1pm EST with the Royals having the first pick.

If form holds true, usually the draft starts after the commisioner's office does a roll call of all the teams and gets all their technical ducks in a row. Last year the draft was delayed for some time while everyone waited for the Yankees to finally show up.

Some places to follow the Live coverage
MLB.com will have the live feed.
As will XM Radio on Channel 189.

Notable websites with Draft coverage
Baseball America
BA Draft Blog
Teamonebaseball.com
Brewerfan.net

Both major last minute mock drafts (MLB.com & Baseball America) have the Reds taking Texas CF Drew Stubbs with the 8th overall pick.

The Reds, once again, have the following picks in the first 10 rounds
1st Rd - 8th overall
Reds select Drew Stubbs, CF, Texas
Texas Bio
USA Baseball Bio

2nd Rd - 52nd overall
Reds select Sean Watson RHP, U. of Tennessee
Tennessee bio

3rd Rd - 84th overall
Reds select Christopher Valaika, SS, UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara bio

4th Rd - 114th overall
Reds select Justin Reed, CF, Hillcrest Christian HS

5th Rd - 144th overall
Reds select Joshua Ravin, RHP, Chatsworth HS

6th Rd - 174th overall
Reds select Jordan Smith, RHP, CC Southern Nevada

7th Rd - 204th overall
Reds select Justin Turner, 2B, Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton bio

8th Rd - 234th overall
Reds select Travis Webb, LHP, Washington State U.
Washington State bio

9th Rd - 264th overall
Reds select Jeremy Burchett, RHP, UC Berkeley
UC Berkeley bio

10th Rd - 294th overall
Reds select Joshua Roenicke, RHP, UCLA
UCLA bio

Well, the time is nearly here. The draft is tomorrow and we'll know soon enough what the true philosophy of the new regime is in regards to development. What may surprise Reds fans is the man with the most influence tomorrow will not be the two most public faces of the franchise in 2006, Wayne Krivsky or Bob Castellini. No, the man running the Reds Draft War Room on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a man by the name of Chris Buckley. Buckley, who's official title is 'Senior Director of Scouting', is probably the most important Reds front office person that the casual fan knows the least about. The Enquirer back in spring training named him one of the Ten most important Reds figures for the next decade. And, just like his predecessor Terry Reynolds, he'll have a wide berth to shape the future of the franchise in his current position.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein spent time last week outlining the 30 individuals responsible for the draft - the scouting directors and here is what he had to say about Buckley

Reds Scouting Director: Chris Buckley. Buckley learned under (The Cubs SD Tim) Wilken, spending 17 years in the Toronto organization before joining the Reds this year. He was the assistant scouting director in Toronto from 1999-2000, assumed scouting director responsibilities in 2001 when Wilken moved up, and then joined Wilken as an assistant GM in 2004. In the three drafts he conducted, all three of the first-round picks reached the majors, and two of three second-rounders have.

The three drafts he is refering to are the 2001, 2002, and 2003 drafts of the Blue Jays, which have included standouts like David Bush, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Shawn Marcum, Gabe Gross and Brandon League. All three drafts were also extremely college heavy.

John Fay attempted to scratch the surface of what direction the Reds were going in the draft in an interview with Buckley draft feature this weekend, where he gave some candid assessments of the draft. Here are some noteworth blurbs

"We're still investigating (Luke Hochevar's) situation," said Chris Buckley, the Reds' senior director of scouting. "We think he might be gone by the time we pick."

But, if he's there when the Reds pick eighth, they might select him.

. . .

"We're going for the best guy," Buckley said.

Signability remains a factor. But the Reds aren't dismissing players simply because they are clients of Boras.

But there is no use drafting Hochevar if you have no chance of signing him. Players - most notably brothers J.D. and Stephen Drew - have played independent ball rather than sign deals they didn't like.

"All teams look at signability," Buckley said. "Even the Yankees have a cap on what they'll spend. It plays a role."

The decision on who to pick will be Buckley's. Krivsky will be involved.

"But I'm not going to tell them who to pick," Krivsky said. "(The scouts) have been working on this since mid-January."

. . .

Again, Buckley said Friday that Hochevar probably would not last until the eighth pick.

"Things will start to take shape over the next 48 to 72 hours," he said.

Baseball America, the draft bible, has Hochevar going fifth to Seattle.

BA has the Reds taking Brandon Morrow, a junior right-hander from Cal. The magazine speculates the Reds would draft Drew Stubbs, a University of Texas outfielder, if he's still on the board.

Buckley acknowledges the Reds have interest in both.

"The thing about picking eighth is you can't be sure what's going to happen above you," he said. "It's not like picking third or fourth."

Buckley came to the Reds from the Toronto Blue Jays. Expect a mix of college and high school players to be picked.

"A guy I worked for in Toronto used to say it's like an investment portfolio," Buckley said. "You want a mix of stocks and bonds. If you go too heavily one way, you get in trouble."

Marc Lancaster also spent some time with Buckley, and here are notes from his story.

"Wayne (Krivsky) and I are on the same page about scouting," Buckley said Thursday. "We're not thinking about 30 days after the draft, we're thinking about three or four years down the road."

. . .

"We're taking the best guy, whether he's a high school guy or a college guy," said Buckley. "Eight's a tough spot, just because the guys I'd take for sure I'm pretty confident are going in front of us, so we're taking the best guy."

When he says it, he means it. In the past, the Reds have sometimes shied away from players perceived as risky when it comes to signability - clients of superagent Scott Boras in particular - but Buckley insists that won't be a factor Tuesday.

"Not at all," he said. "We're going to take the best guy."

Mark Sheldon rounded out the trio with his draft preview, and not surprisingly, Buckley was hitting the same notes in that interview.

"Wherever you are, you always need to take the best whatever," Buckley said. "I'm sure there are some organizational needs you like to meet. But you consistently have to take the highest evaluated player each time you pick.

"If Wayne Krivsky needs a third baseman for next year, I can't just go out get him one in this draft. I seek to have a balanced draft."

If you want to read more about the draft, you can find my other two diary entries from last week on the draft HERE &  HERE

Per Lance McAlister

Following Sunday night's game, LHP Phil Dumatrait was promoted to Louisville from Double-A Chattanooga. He will start Monday night's 7:15 p.m. game vs. the Scranton/W-B Red Barons. Dumatrait is 3-4, 3.62ERA in 10 starts with the Lookouts. He will be making his Triple-A debut Monday night.

Have to wonder if his good performances keep up, if the big lefty won't be in a Cincinnati uniform before too long.

One down, One more to go. The Reds first PTBNL of the season has been named.

The PTBNL in the Cody Ross from the Dodgers deal has a name - it is AA Hurler Ben Kozlowski.

Per Marc Lancaster

The Reds today sent left-hander Ben Kozlowski to the Dodgers to complete the first Cody Ross trade.

Kozlowski, a waiver claim from the Rangers a couple years ago, began the year at Louisville but was shipped out quickly after posting a 12.54 ERA in seven appearances. In 10 games after that with Chattanooga, he was 2-1 with a 1.17.

There still remains one PTBNL sent out of town for the Brandon Phillips deal, and one coming in via the deal that flipped Ross to Florida.

We'll continue the march towards MLB Draft day with a look back at how the Reds have fared in the 1st round in the 15 years since winning the big dance. 2006 will mark the 16th since the Reds took home the World Series trophy, and the results have been anything but good. This is an update to a post I made here last year - but all the player info has been updated, and the latest first round pick from 2005 has been woven into the mix.

Some will ask, why look at only the first round pick? Because 1st round draft picks get all the money, the fame and the infamy when it comes to the MLB Draft. Typically they are the harbinger of a successful or unsuccessful draft. Not exactly fair, but they are the big money players, and as I'll show in a minute, the Reds have had dismal luck with picking the big money guys.

2005: 12th - Jay Bruce - OF - West Brook High School, Beaumont,TX

Currently: Bruce was the 3rd straight Reds first rounder picked from the Lone Star State, and has started off with a bang. Bruce is near or at the top of the Midwest (Low A) League in Doubles, Triples, Home Runs, Total Bases and Slugging Percentage.  If he continues to tear the cover off the ball, a promotion to High A is looming. He'll forever be linked with the two HS OFs picked directly before him, Detroit's Cameron Maybin and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen. Neither of whom has yet to show the power Bruce has been displaying.
MLB Exp: None to date

Analysis: Too soon to tell. But a good start.

2004: 7th - Homer Bailey - RHP - La Grange High School, La Grange TX

Currently: Starting every 5th day for Sarasota.

Bailey only spent a few months with the GCL club, but early returns statistically were less than promising. However, Baseball America saw and heard enough in those 12 innings plus instructional league work to name him the Reds No. 1 prospect going into 2005. Had minor knee surgery in the offseason. But came into Spring Training and really wow'd the major league staff, and was one of the last demotions coming out of camp. Has really started to come into his own since being freed from the shackles of the Tandem starter system.

MLB Exp: None to date

Analysis: Big step forward so far this season. Can only hope it continues

2003: 14th - Ryan Wagner - RHP - Univ of Houston

Currently: Struggling in the bullpen in Louisville.

Wagner was lights out at the end of the 2003, and has had a significant setback to begin 2004, suffering a demotion. Hasn't really been the same since. Was fooling no one last year, and had a terrible spring to start the year off in '06, and  is really just serving up BP in two months down at Louisville. There is still plenty of time to turn it around, but it's getting a little bleaker every day.

Major League Exp: Three seasons so far (108 Games/119 Innings Pitched)

Analysis: Still plenty of hope for him, but sooner or later, it will be Fish or cut bait with him.

2002: 3rd - Chris Gruler - RHP - High School(CA)

Currently: Still in Extended Spring Training, again.

Gruler had arm injuries, just about every kind, since the day he was drafted. It's been said that these were possibly pre-existing but the Reds didn't detect or catch them. Scouting reports now have his velocity topping out in the low 80's. Was named the Reds No. 1 overall prospect by Baseball America going into 2003, but has yet to throw a pitch above Low A ball in four seasons. Had yet another major set back in extended spring training throwing long toss. It's about time to wipe off any chances of this kid making any impact in the majors, or for that matter, making any pitches at the MLB level. John Fay this month wrote a report on how especially painful this pick is, given that the other choice to be picked was current Devil Rays Ace Hurler Scott Kazmir.

MLB Exp: None to date

Analysis: Total Bust

2001: 20th - Jeremy Sowers - LHP - High School(KY)

Currently: On the fast track to the majors...for Cleveland.

The Reds really had no intention of ever signing Sowers, and gave him a low ball offer - so instead took the scholarship offer from Vanderbilt. Was dominant in the SEC, and the Cleveland Indians First round selection in 2004. Has rocketed thru the system ever since. Putting up dominant numbers so far in '06 in AAA.

MLB Exp: None - but coming soon

Analysis: Bust on the Reds part

2000: 23rd - David Espinosa - SS - High School(FL)

Currently: Playing LF for the Detroit AAA squad in Toledo.

Espinosa was a Scott Boras special, along with 2nd round pick Dane Sardinha, netted a major league contract and a multi-million dollar bonus from the desperate Reds in 2000. Was moved to 2b before being traded to the Tigers for RHP Brian Mohler when the Reds were in the playoff hunt. Has since been moved to the OF.  Appears to have topped out at AAA, as his numbers have really dipped at every promotion.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Yet another overhyped Scott Boras client who has amounted to little. Probably may get a cup of coffee at some point in the future but likely a career AAA player.

1999: 14th - Ty Howington - LHP - High School(WA)

Currently: Released by the Reds in Spring Training. Pitching career likely over and out of baseball.

There is no truth to the rumor that the Reds Extended Spring Training Camp has been renamed the Howington/Gruler Medical Ward. Howington wa been plagued by injuries in his seven years with the Reds, although he did flash an occasional glimmer of hope. That glimmer is all we have left of a career left in shambles by a shredded pitching arm.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Career over. Total Bust.

1998: 7th - Austin Kearns - RF - High School(KY)

Currently: Reds Starting RF

Kearns, along with the Reds LF Adam Dunn who was taken 2nd in 98, will likely anchor the Reds OF for the foreseeable future. Rocketed thru the Reds minor league system, and made his major league debut in 2002. Had a weight problem going into the 2005 season, and was demoted for a month to Louisville to correct it. Has caught fire to begin the year after being handed the every day RF job in Spring Training.
MLB Exp: Four seasons (365 games)

Analysis: Looks ready to make the next step as a player, but injuries are always a worry. Can be the Reds best overall player when healthy. Turned 26 this month, and will soon be entering his free agent years, so a decision will need to be reached soon.

1997: 14th - Brandon Larson - SS - Louisiana State Univ

Currently: Will compete for a 3B/DH job for Tampa Bay in Spring Training.

A real life Crash Davis if there ever was one.  Former Reds 3B Aaron Boone moved to 2nd to accommodate Larson in the spring of 2003, but that was really the begining of the end for Brandon. Could never showcase power he demonstrated at AAA in the bigs due to continued fluky and bizarre injuries. Released in Sept of 2004 after a season filled with injuries and poor performances, was cut from Tampa Bay's Spring Training in 2005, and spent the rest of the year at AA for Texas putting up uninspiring numbers. Was invited to ST with the Nationals and now toiling away at AAA. Hasn't sniffed the majors since being cut by the Reds, and that dream gets farther every day.

MLB Exp: 4 years(109 games)

Analysis: Total major league return after seven seasons: 8HR, 37RBI, .179BA & .271OBP in 109 games. Bust.

1996: 25th - John Oliver - OF - High School(PA)

Currently: Out of baseball

Never rose above A ball. Oliver was traded to the Red Sox in '99, having hit .208 in three years with the Reds. If not the worst pick in this span it's a close 2nd. Hindsight maybe 20/20, but major leaguers like Jason Marquis, Milton Bradley, Jacque Jones, Jimmy Rollins and future Red Chris Reitsma were all selected in the next 20 picks following Oliver.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Bust

1995: Team forfeited its 1st round pick with the signing of Damon Berryhill.

1994: 9th - C.J. Nitkowski - LHP - St. John's Univ

Currently: Didn't make the Pirates squad out of Spring Training as a LOOGY, currently working out of the pen for the Pirates AAA club.

Nitkowski made the Reds team in 95, starting 7 games, with 32IP, and a 6.12ERA.

Traded to the Tigers for David Wells.

MLB Exp: Ten seasons(336 games)

Analysis: Nitkowski has been a serviceable reliever for a decade. Although I doubt the Reds wanted to take a lefty specialist in the first round. His trade did net Wells, who was a key contributor during the 1995 season, the only year since 1990 when the Reds made the playoffs. Wells was then turned after the 95 season for Trovin Valdez and Curtis Goodwin. Valdez was a organization washout while Goodwin was the Reds fourth OF for the next two seasons.

1993: Team forfeited its 1st round pick with the signing of John Smiley

1992: 5th - Chad Mottola - OF - Central Florida Univ

Currently: Currently playing in AAA in the Blue Jays organization

Mottola played 35 games for the Reds in 1996, getting 79AB and batting .215. Was the "player to be named later" during a deal with the Rangers in 1998. After 14 professional seasons, has only 109 MLB at bats to his name

MLB Exp: 4 seasons (49 games)

Analysis: Bust - Was expected to be a Reds power hitter when drafted 5th overall at age 20, but has never panned out. Mottola is particularly painful to the Reds Chief Scouting Director at the time, Gene Bennett, who was overruled on the drafting of Mottola by the entire Reds scouting staff. The director had wanted to take a 17 year old SS out of Michigan named Derek Jeter.

1991: 20th - Calvin "Pokey" Reese - SS - High School(SC)

Currently: Retired and out of baseball

At one point, the deal for Ken Griffey Jr. was at a halt because the Reds refused to include Reese in the deal. Less than 2 seasons later, he was shipped to the Rockies for Luke Hudson and Gabe White after he had quit on the team. Spent all of '05 injured. Signed a major league deal with the Marlins in the offseason to be the everyday 2B - then, without telling anyone on the team, he disappeared one day not to be seen again. Resurfaced weeks later saying he had retired from baseball. Once a quitter always a quitter eh Pokey? Reese spent five season with the Reds, batting .285 in 1999.

MLB Exp. 9 seasons (856 games)

Analysis: Considering the regard with which the organization held him at one time, Pokey's fall with the Reds was sharp and swift. Before the '06 season, was consider that he could be an everyday 2b for most major league teams. Now it's doubtful any team would give him more than a minor league deal with a short leash to prove himself, should he unretire.

The 2006 MLB Draft is coming up quick - seven days from today (Tuesday) to be exact - and of course as it happens every year around this time, the rumors are swirling as to who will be picked where.

In the first 10 rounds, here is the list of where the Reds pick overall

1st Rd - 8th overall
2nd Rd - 52nd overall
3rd Rd - 84th overall
4th Rd - 114th overall
5th Rd - 144th overall
6th Rd - 174th overall
7th Rd - 204th overall
8th Rd - 234th overall
9th Rd - 264th overall
10th Rd - 294th overall

It should also be noted that the Reds may get a bonus left over from 2005 to add to this year's draft class. Last year's Draft and Follow pick Milton Loo is listed as the 64th best talent available in the draft, and the Reds own his rights, at least for a few more days. He is taking part in the NJCAA World Series, and has until 48 hours after his team is eliminated to sign - and that series ends on Saturday, so we'll know come Draft Day whether Loo is a Red or on the open market again.

Here is a wrapup of all the Reds related rumors so far and who started them (or at least will fess up to starting them.

Jim Callis of Baseball America, had this guess about the Reds first round pick.

8. REDS. Cincinnati will hope that (Drew) Stubbs or especially (Clayton) Kershaw will make it down to them, but that won't happen. The Reds haven't expressed much interest in (Tim) Lincecum, making Morrow the more likely choice.

Projected Pick: Brandon Morrow.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has this guess

8. Cincinnati Reds: Bill Rowell, 3B, Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J.

For a while, it loooked like the Reds were all over Stubbs, but I now have reason to believe that won't happen. Some say that Rowell, a high school shortstop who profiles as a power-hitting third baseman, might be sliding because of a poor playoff performance, but word on the street is that the Reds were bringing Rowell in for a private workout. If he puts on a show, the Reds will be tempted to take him here.
Last week's projection: Stubbs.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus gave his two cents about the Reds 8th overall pick

8. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are high on Reynolds and University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs, but it's possible Stubbs could be too expensive. Enter Billy Rowell. The New Jersey high school shortstop will end up moving to third base or even further down the defensive spectrum, but he's drawing Troy Glaus comparisons for his size, approach, natural loft and incredible leverage. He's almost certainly going to be the first high school position player off the board, and while Rowell didn't even enter the year as a first-round pick, there are whispers that the three teams ahead of the Reds have him in the back of their minds as well.

So it remains to be seen what the Reds will actually do - given the new regime in place and the likelihood that none of the above scribes have any idea who the Reds braintrust will pick.

BA is keeping a running tab called the "Draft Tracker" - a list of the Top 30 players in overall talent, not where they think the player will get picked, and all put Rowell are listed in the top 10 (Rowell is listed at 17th overall).

For those wanting to do their own research, Baseball America has the Top 200 Scouting Reports up and available for browsing.

With all the noise about Homer Bailey and Travis Wood, I don't know if anyone has been following Johnny Cueto this season. But he has just been flat out nasty so far since being promoted to Dayton.

Numbers right now on the season are as follows

47IP, 13ER, 25H, 6BB, 59K, 2.49ERA, 0.66WHIP and 2 CG shutouts

LINK

Dragons' Cueto throws another gem
Right-hander extends scoreless streak to 19 innings
By Daren Smith / MLB.com

Johnny Cueto continued his remarkable run for the Dayton Dragons on Thursday night.

Cueto ran his scoreless streak to 19 innings with seven frames of two-hit ball as the Dragons held on for a 3-2 victory over the South Bend Silver Hawks at Stanley Coveleski Regional Stadium.

The 20-year-old right-hander has been virtually unhittable in his last three starts, limiting Midwest League foes to three hits and two walks while striking out 22. He has not lost since April 10 and has not given up a run since May 8 against Cedar Rapids.

Cueto (5-1) surrendered five runs in his first start of the season but has yielded only eight since, lowering his ERA to 2.49. Opponents are hitting just .151 against him, a figure that drops to .106 on the road.

Against South Bend, a team that was held to one hit by West Michigan in its last game on Tuesday, Cueto gave up a two-out single to Trey Hendricks in the second inning before retiring the next 13 batters. The string was broken by Leyson Septimo's leadoff single in the bottom of the seventh.

As soon as Cueto exited, the Silver Hawks sliced their deficit to 3-2. Ricardo Sosa delivered a two-out double off reliever Logan Ondrusek and Frank Curreri followed with his first homer of the season. Pinch-hitter Greg Thomson greeted reliever Blake Hendley with another double, but Pedro Ciriaco flied out to end the threat.

Hendley gave up a leadoff single to Septimo in the ninth but got 2005 top overall draft pick Justin Upton to hit into a double play, then retired Bryan Byrne on a groundout for his 11th save.

Habelito Hernandez staked Cueto to an early lead with a two-run homer, his first, in the second. The Dragons got a key insurance run in the eighth on Brandon Szymanski's RBI double.

All three runs were charged with South Bend starter Cody Evans (1-6), who gave up five hits and two walks while striking out five. The 22-year-old right-hander has lost his last three starts.