e've all seen the regional blackout map for MLB:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/MLB_Blackout_Areas.png


Many people complain about MLB.tv or Extra Innings being blacked out during national broadcasts... My complaint is something different.

There are too many places where you don't have fair options to watch a team. I live in Columbus, OH (I believe Charlie lives here as well) and am a Pittsburgh Pirates fan. For some reason, Columbus is marked as a Pirates area. There are other places, like Canton, closer to Pittsburgh that aren't marked as Pittsburgh territory. The problem is, there is no fair option for me to watch the Pirates. People who are actually within an hour or so of Pittsburgh can get FSN Pittsburgh with a standard cable package (~$30-40/month). People who live all over the country can watch the Pirates by buying MLB.tv for $100 for the year.

The only exception is people in Columbus, Ohio. FSN Pittsburgh is not a cable option. I have called my cable company and asked for any package that includes FSN Pittsburgh. There is none. When I complain to MLB.tv customer service, they insisted people own the rights to show the game there.

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A couple years ago I got really into NFL history and started to ponder which NFL franchise was the greatest. We all know the Steelers lead the league in Lombardi trophies with 6. But Packer fans will argue they cheer on the league's greatest as they have 12 total championships. The counter-argument, of course, is that most of those championships should hardly count as they were in the days of leather helmets and other such nonsense.

But I figure, why can't we quantify what each championship is worth? So a while back, I came up with a formula that applies a different value to each of a team's championships depending on the state of the league when it was won. Here's the key:

Early: This counts championships from 1920-1932. During this era, the league had no championships game, no common schedules (just play whoever, whether they're from the NFL or not) and no draft, among other things. Not to mention that it was basically a bunch of semi-pros playing in their spare time and not hitting each other all that hard because there was no money in it. This is the base value so each championship from this era counts as 1 point.

(Note: You could argue that the 1932 year shouldn't be in this era because there was a championship game. However, it was impromptu, and it was freakin' indoors. Although take any chance you can to learn about that game as it was one of the most influential games of all time.)

Legit: This category covers two eras, 1933-1945 and 1950-1959. These were eras with a planned championship game, and for most of these eras there was a common draft and schedule. The knock on these eras is how small the league was at this time, ranging from 8 to 12 teams. However, these eras are still important because the champion each of these years is the undisputed greatest team on the planet. A championship from these eras scores 4 points.

Contested: This category covers 1946-1949 and 1960-1965. These years are much like the "legit" championships except that there was a rival league at the time (the AAFC and the AFL) and the two leagues did not meet for a championship game at the end of the season. These leagues count, as opposed to the UFL, because teams from these leagues had teams that were eventually absorbed into the NFL (the Browns, 49ers and a now defunct Colts team from the AAFC, and the entire AFL). Since it's questionable which team is the true champion from these eras, a champion from any league at this time receives 3 points. This helps the Browns a lot because they won the AAFC all four years. You can't just brush those off because the Browns also won the NFL championship immediately once they were merged into the NFL. Like the AFL champs, the Browns always challenged the NFL champion to a final game, but the NFL always declined. While the Packers won the first two Super Bowls no problem, there's really no guarantee that they would have beaten the Oilers, Texans (Chiefs), or Bills of the day.

Bowl: Super Bowl championships. These are worth 7 points, almost twice as much as a legit championship from previous eras. The reason is that the league was much bigger at this point (starting at 22 and going up from there) and quickly grew into the stable and incredibly popular league we know today.

The final result? The Packers and Steelers are the top two teams in the league, with the Packers holding a slight edge, 45-42. The Steelers, of course, did absolutely nothing before taking over the league in 1974 and never letting go. Meanwhile, the Packers won 3 of each type of championship: 3 early, 3 legit, 3 contested, and 3 Super Bowls.

That means the winner of Super Bowl XLV will be the undisputed greatest franchise of NFL history. The stakes are high!

Below is the full list:

(edit: added the lions. Thanks to MDSTEELERSFAN for pointing out the omission)

Texans will let CB Robinson leave

This is a guy many of us wanted back in 2004 when Big Ben didn't even seem like a possibility. He panned out pretty well for the Texans. The Steelers say they'll use a "self-imposed" salary cap, but why shouldn't they at least throw their hat into the ring for Dunta? He's only 27. If the price goes too high, then just step out. With Polamalu's health always a risk, it's be good to upgrade a cornerback spot. I certainly hope Ike and Gay can improve, but they were terrible without Troy last year.

We've all seen the Steeler playoff scenarios as articulated by Sick Puppy below:

1) Pittsburgh win + Houston loss/tie + New York loss/tie
2) Pittsburgh win + Baltimore loss/tie + Denver loss/tie + New York loss/tie
3) Pittsburgh win + Houston loss/tie + Baltimore loss/tie

We know the Jets and Ravens "control their own destiny," and that everyone else is involved in complicated tie breakers. We are all wondering how much New England and Cincinnati care about their games vs. the Texans and the Jets. What hasn't yet been fully realized is the significance that the time of day of the games next week plays a role.

At 1:00 pm, Pittsburgh and Houston play. So no matter what happens, if Pittsburgh wins, they will be technically alive at the end of the game. New England's 3 seed will be in doubt so they should play hard.

Let's say New England does their job and beats Houston. Then we only need either a Ravens lost at 4:15 or a Jets loss on SNF. Oakland is certainly a wild card, but if they lose to the Ravens, we are dependent on a Bengals win on SNF to go to the playoffs.

Will the Bengals care? If New England wins, the Bengals will have the 4th seed unless they win and also beat New England on Strength of Victory. Right now, that is up in the air, and is a very close race. But by 8pm on Sunday, it could be obvious that the Bengals will lose that race and thus have nothing to play for. There is a 50/50 chance that the game won't make any difference to them.

If New England were to lose to Houston, we'll be cheering hard for the Raiders and Chiefs at 4:15. If both of those games were to go our way, would Cincinnati have anything to play for in this case? They would have the 3rd seed if they won, and by 8:15 there's a 50/50 chance they will have already won the Strength of Victory race with New England, rendering the game meaningless.

So whether New England wins or loses, because of Strength of Victory possibilities, there's a 50/50 chance the Bengals will have already locked up either the 3rd or 4th seed. It's bad enough that they might not try hard if their seed was in doubt; now the NFL has handed a great big late holiday present to the Jets.

In other words, cheer hard for the Patriots and Raiders!

Also keep in mind that New England and Cincinnati are facing teams they could potentially play in the first round of the playoffs! If they beat the teams, they'll eliminate them, and if they lose, they could play them again the next week. So will they even fully gameplan? Why should they, when the other team will be? That way NE/CIN can see their full hand of cards while keeping theirs secret. That's bad enough, but pushing the Bengals game back to when everything else is decided makes the situation even worse.

Our odds don't look as good as the scenarios suggest.

(If your're only interested in the ultimate conclusions of these scenarios, scroll down to the bold text at the bottom.)

imike29 has posted Steeler playoff scenarios that, while not perfect, give a pretty decent picture of what needs to happen. Since I spent a while thinking this through yesterday, I thought I'd share my understanding of our situation for anyone interested in who we really need to cheer for and how much it all matters to the Steelers. All this assumes the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Dolphins. As Cornell78 pointed out, scenarios exist in which the Steelers could lose to the Ravens and still qualify for the post-season, but literally 10 out of 10 games would have to go our way. Not likely. So, assuming the Steelers finish 9-7, there is good news:

1. If 4 out of 4 games go our way this week, we control our own destiny. That means HOU, JAX, NYJ, and DEN losing at MIA, NE, IND, and PHI, respectively. All four teams are road underdogs, although it remains to be seen how long Peyton and company will play against NYJ.
2. No matter what happens this week, if PIT wins, PIT cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even if all four of those games go against us, there will still be a chance for us to proceed given the right Week 17 outcomes.
3. If we win, we have a great chance of being in the SNF game next week. NFC scenarios are unlikely to be 100% sure to decide playoff spots. If we control our own destiny as per point 1, we'll likely be on SNF. But even if NYJ won, MIA would then control their own destiny and we would play on SNF for that reason.
4. There is no "one game" or "one team" that we need to go our way. Any ONE of the following teams could win out and we could still qualify: DEN, JAX, NYJ, HOU, TEN. Also, BAL could win in week 17 and we can still qualify. We are not dependant on any one team.

Having said that, some games matter more than others, and there are many teams in better positions than us. Our advantage is that none of those teams are very good.

There are really two tiers of teams to get past: BAL/DEN at 8-6 and JAX/NYJ/MIA/HOU/TEN at 7-7. The more teams we can get past in one "tier," the more breathing room we have in the other tier. There are only two spots, so at the end of the day we have to get past all but one of these teams. However, there are many ways to accomplish this feat.

Let's first look at the 7-7 tier. MIA plays HOU and PIT, so not all teams can win out. But if they could, their order in playoff tiebreakers would look like this (conference record in parenthesis): JAX (8-4), MIA (7-5), NYJ (7-5), HOU (6-6), PIT (6-6), TEN (5-7). MIA finishes ahead of NYJ based on season sweep, HOU finishes ahead of PIT based on common opponents. When you look at this list, things look like they're in bad shape, but keep these things in mind:

1. PIT can eliminate MIA in week 17 with a win.
2. All these teams are 7-7 and have two chances to lose. Odds are the teams will be split among 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 at the end of the year, because they're all pretty average. We're assuming PIT is one of the 9-7 teams.
3. Finally, these "standings" are not carved in stone and can change based on how the chips fall these last two weeks and how the DEN/BAL games go.

Now certainly, PIT is stuck behind JAX and NYJ. If both teams win out, the Steelers have no shot. But if one of them lose a game, we have a shot, and if both of them lose just one game, we are practically at the head of the class!  That is because there are multiple scenarios in which HOU can finish behind PIT despite both teams winning out.

For this reason, I'll call NYJ, JAX, and HOU the "Little 3." If we can pass all three, we are dependent on very little as far as DEN/BAL, and only need one of them to lose one game out of the three we're not involved in. Keep in mind: These are not very good teams. One of them is likely to lose.

Even if we only pass two of the Little 3, there are still opportunities to make the playoffs if BAL and DEN  really blow it.

Obviously, to pass JAX or NYJ, we need them to lose a game this week or next week. NYJ could actually win the division if they win out, but in that case, NE would take their spot in the wildcard chase ahead of us, so it's moot for the Steelers.

For HOU, even if they win out, then if TEN wins out too, TEN will jump ahead of HOU within the division. Wildcard ties are broke first within the division, so in that case TEN would eliminate HOU and then we would win a tiebreaker over TEN. Besides that, if HOU and PIT finished at 9-7 and TEN loses a game, and then DEN beats PHI but loses to KC, PIT could get in in that situation as well, and BAL's game against HOU would become irrelevant. For a PIT/HOU/DEN tiebreaker, it would come down to Strength of Victory. Right now, DEN has the edge over PIT, but if some otherwise irrelevant games went our way, we could jump them. (I wouldn't attempt calculate this unless it is still a possibility next week!) If we ended up in that tiebreaker, BAL's game would become irrelevant because if they win, the Strength of Victory determines the 6th seed, and if BAL loses, SoV determines the 5th seed and if the Steelers lose SoV to DEN, they would then lose to HOU based on common schedule.

In sum, we need to jump ahead of at least two of the LIttle 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), and ideally, all 3. This would mean those teams losing a game, although in HOU's case, there are other possibilities to jump ahead of them (TEN winning out or that complicated paragraph above). If all three are eliminated, we only need to climb ahead of EITHER BAL or DEN. If only two are eliminated, we must climb ahead of both.

So let's jump back to BAL's and DEN's games for a moment. If we beat BAL, they can beat OAK and tie us at 9-7, but would finish ahead of us in any playoff scenario because they finish ahead of us in the division due to division record. Finishing ahead of Baltimore is simple: They must lose at OAK in week 17. This isn't as far fetched as it seems, as OAK now has 5 victories and even JaMarcus Russell has now contributed to a win.

However, as I just stated, if we jump ahead of all three of the LIttle 3, we don't need to finish ahead of BAL. In that case, we could alternatively jump ahead of DEN, in which case they would have to lose just one game: @PHI or vs. KC. PHI is playing very well right now and has not yet clinched the division. (And Denver does not look good.)

So, reviewing, if we pass all of the Little 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), only one of BAL/OAK's 3 games have to go our way in order to qualify for a wildcard spot. If we pass only two of the Little 3, we need to pass both BAL and DEN by having BAL lose to OAK and having DEN lose one of their games (in most cases).

Passing the Little 3 means having them lose a game, except for HOU, which needs to lose a game or have TEN win out, OR if we end up in a 3-way tie with HOU and DEN, we could advance based on Strength of Victory if certain games go our way. This would happen if DEN beat PHI but lost to KC (if those two games were switched around, DEN would win 3-way-tiebreaker based on 7-5 conference schedule and HOU would be ahead of us due to common opponents tiebreaker).

Having thought all this through, I'd estimate the following odds of qualifying for the postseason for the wildcard contenders, assuming for each team that it won out:

BAL and DEN; 100%

JAX: 85%

MIA: 75%

NYJ: 70%

PIT: 50%

HOU: 45%

TEN:5%

The odds may seem high, but keep in mind that many of these teams will lose the next two weeks, eliminating themselves and helping out the teams who manage to win. TEN is in bad shape. The only teams they beat in tiebreakers are HOU and MIA. Otherwise, they need all but one of the following things to happen: BAL to lose twice, DEN to lose twice, JAX to lose at least once, NYJ to lose at least once, and PIT to beat BAL but lose to MIA. That means they MUST have 4 of 5 games go their way, PLUS have JAX and NYJ to each lose once. (Or have 5 of 5 go their way and have either JAX or NYJ lose once.) Makes all these analysts saying that "TEN could be dangerous!" seem silly since, while they're playing well, the Titans have almost no shot to qualify for January football.

So, first of all, Go Steelers! Second of all, BOO Baltimore! Thirdly, Boo Denver! Finally, Boo HOU/Boo JAX/Boo NYJ/Go TEN!

Edit: I have found one error in my calculations. If MIA wins, and DEN and JAX and BAL lose, MIA will not quite control their destiny in week 17. If they're tied with BAL/DEN/both at the end of the season, it would come down to Strength of Victory for MIA to beat one or both of those teams. So it's unlikely that MIA would control its destiny heading into Week 17. Even so, if both teams win this week, it's the best Week 17 matchup in my opinion.