• joined Mar 24, 2008
  • last login Jul 14, 2014
  • posts 16
  • comments 6609

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  • MLB Chicago White Sox
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  • NCAAB Illinois Fighting Illini
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User Blog

Horrible Tragedy


Our prayers go out to all of you in Minnesota affected by this tragedy. We stand with you in spirit. It's horrible to think that this could all have been prevent. Stay strong and may God have mercy on us all.

When do Standings Matter?


Beyond the Box Score looks at the relationship of a team's standing during the season and its final record. Spoiler: Standings at the end of April don't mean much

White Sox Groupon


All you can eat/drink for two hours before the game. Choice between games against Angels, Rays and A's

What team should I root for?: the...


What team should I root for?: the flow chart Link

Frightened to Swing? The Odd Approach of Batters to facing Carlos Marmol


The fact that Marmol gets the most called strikes of anyone in the majors (the inevitable result of having these pitches taken by batters) should not be over-emphasized. It is not the main reason for his insane K rate. Remember, Marmol has one of the highest (#9 out of all qualifying pitchers) swinging strike rates in the league, and there's a high correlation (R^2=.666) between swinging strike rate and K%. Meanwhile, the correlation between a pitcher's called strike rate and K rate is zero (R^2=.006). This shouldn't be surprising if you've been following along...after all, the swing rates against Marmol on 2 strike counts are still quite high and close to normal, showing that the vast majority of these called strikes come on counts where they can't result in an at-bat being over. That said, it does explain why the K and BB rates of Marmol are so extreme, especially for a pitcher who actually does hit the strike zone not at a super infrequent rate. Batters when they find themselves ahead in the count, particularly in 2 ball counts (but starting in 1-0 counts), are opting to take pitches rather than to try and hit Marmol's elusive slider. The end result is that batters are putting less balls in play than they would otherwise and thus are having more opportunities to take walks or to strike out.

Testing the 2007-2010 Forecasting Systems


To the extent that we want to declare a winner, Chone seems to have done the best, overall, and in some various breakdowns. But, all the four systems performed very well, both against each other and against Marcel. The strong showing of Marcel serves as a cautionary note that it would be very difficult for a forecasting system to stand alone as the best. They are all very close, and there’s little to distinguish between them.

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects


Over the last decade, Major League Baseball organizations have treated top prospects as their most valuable commodity. They are inexpensive (at least for the first six or seven years) and they can produce genuine star players. But of course they can also give rise to failure, lots and lots of failure. Every organization has several prospects that tantalize with scouting reports of potential success, but it seems like they often disappoint. Failure of top prospects is extremely common. At the same time, many top prospects become good, or even great players. So, based on historical precedent, what can we expect from various kinds of highly regarded prospects?


What should Dayan's nickname be?

What should Dayan's nickname be?  There has been much debate.  It is time a consensus to be reached.  So here we go.     a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a...

Beyond the Boxscore Looks at the Sox in 2010


An Analysis of the White Sox in 2010 and beyond

Team Baserunning Evaluations


Apparently the Sox are right about average at baserunning

Uribe Signs with Giants


Heyman claims that Uribe has signed a $1mil minor league deal with SF

Red Sox Shopping Lowell


The Red Sox may be looking to dump Mike Lowell and his contract. Any interest if the asking price is low?

The Emergence of John Danks


Interesting article on Beyond the Box Score: "... Acquired in the deal that sent Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers, Danks made his major league debut for the White Sox last year in his age 22 season experiencing more than a few growing pains as the season progressed. So-so control, coupled with extreme flyball tendencies made Danks’ first major league season a rather forgettable one. At the end of the year he had pitched 139 innings, posting an ERA of 5.50 and a VORP of just 1.8 runs. This season, we have seen an entirely different pitcher: Danks has already pitched 107 innings, posting a 2.52 ERA and a VORP of 34.8 runs, the final figure currently being the second best mark in the American League. What has caused such an unprecedented turnaround? Sure Danks has always been talented, but an ERA drop of nearly three full runs indicates he has been utilizing that talent differently than he did last season. Let’s take a look at Danks from a Pitch F/X standpoint. I’ll be the first to admit, I have only experimented with the tool a handful of times, so please feel free to drop a comment if you have a suggestion. ..."

Fist Time Coaches


First time coaches over the past 10 years have faired pretty well.

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