Lookout Landing "footbaLL" has traditionally been a fun, welcoming, low-impact way to enjoy the sport.  Women and children have been welcome at previous games.  We either play two-hand touch or with flags... but absolutely no tackle.  Injuries are usually limited to being sore in strange places the next day. 

Please consider joining a footbaLL event on Saturday, December 19th.  If you'd like to participate please leave your RSVP in the comment section.   We're looking for 6-10 participants... which allows teams to be small enough that everyone (except the quarterback) can be a receiver and routes can be strategically designed. We'll also plan to have a game on December 26th for those of you who would like to play but cannot make it to this one.

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Since there seemed to be enough interest to at least get a couple games going on neighboring courts, or a rousing set of mixed doubles, I'm proposing a LL Tennis Event.

Location is the Madrona Playground off of Spring and 34th.
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UPDATE: Polling has indicated that Saturday, June 6th at 2pm is the most popular option, so that will be the time.

I'm hoping to hear from the folks that expressed interest previously (Lanterman, ACblue, RC, Jaejo, Serotonein) as well as anyone else who might be lured out.)

In the past we've pulled together a lot of very fun Lookout Landing sporting events... we've had stickball, softball and football games... occasionally pulling over 20 people together. While that was fun, the open invite community aspect of Lookout Landing has died down some. And toward the end of those football games, we were lucky to get 6 people showing up. Nothing lasts forever... c'est la vie.

BUT... after playing in a weekend tennis tournament recently, I've been gung ho to play more tennis. The weather is gorgeous, it's a fantastic game, good exercise... and easier to find enough people to play, right? Except... not so much.

I realize I know almost no one that plays tennis in Seattle. Rather than despair, I thought I'd see if there are any Seattlites out there that might want to play tennis. If the intimacy of 1 on 1 matches is a little much for you... we can try to get groups of 4 together and play some doubles... or grab two courts and mix it up. No need to have kick ass gear or anything... and tennis balls are cheap.

One foreseeable issue: Tennis isn't quite the same as other team sports. It may not be terribly fun to play opponents of radically different skill levels. If you're interested, you might want to indicate your experience/skill level.

As AC recently pointed out, there are no "baseball movies." Baseball movies just use the national pastime as the mileu for a story about "coming of age" or "learning about love" or "making peace with your asshole father" or whatever.

So there's another baseball film playing right now at the Harvard Exit. But Sugar falls into an unusual camp as an art-house/Sundance-style immigration film. The characters are subtle. The plot doesn't go all crazy Hollywood on you. Everything is believable, occasionally touching, occasionally funny, ultimately human. The moments that make you tear up aren't shots of Sugar finally making the big club... but rather when a waitress takes an extra minute to teach Sugar how to order eggs rather than brushing him off as someone that "needs to learn how to speak proper English."

The biggest criticism I've heard is that the film-makers heavy-handedly chose the name Sugar to evoke the idea that baseball players are the new island crop in our exploitative triangle trade system (as sugar cane used to be.) They may have, but the film actually seems pretty even-handed to me. It does not present the US in a uniformly bad light. Here's the best review I found in a brief search.

I'm curious what other people thought of it, or if they are willing to go see it as baseball fans. When I was leaving the theater I said, "That was almost an anti-baseball movie." But after thinking about it for a day, and after reading some reviews... I agreed with something I read: "It was really just an anti-Sammy Sosa movie."

I didn't love it, but I did think it had quite a bit of integrity and I didn't immediately forget it once I had left the theater.

I've long been interested in trying to shed more light on the true value of first round draft picks... those fascinating commodities... so full of talent and potential. I've often heard arguments about the value of a prized draft pick in terms of his value vs. that of an established major league player. And many of these arguments have seemed to me to be overblown and ignorant of the statistical destiny of our beloved blue chips. In order to be more informed, I decided to do some sloppy half-assed research.

My own personal prejudice is that we tend to overvalue prospects because we cannot help but see them for all their potential and none of their warts. We don't imagine them succumbing to injury in their sophomore year or the hole in their swing causing them to flame out when they get to AAA. We imagine that 2 sandwich picks are excellent compensation for losing a veteran player. But what can history tell us about the true value of those early picks? I spent an hour today looking at all the first round draft picks from 1990 to 1999 to see what percentage of these players wound up being impact players at the MLB level.

I looked at all the first round picks from these years, and sorted the players into 3 categories: all-star, useful player and bust. I have to admit that this was a subjective process. (I'd love to see what another researcher would find.) There were 280 total picks to rank. I also broke out the top 10 picks from each year and did a sub-analysis.

Since I am aware of a personal prejudice I tried to grade fairly. But there are obvious flaws in my research. I was unwilling to look up stat lines for every player. (That would take too much time.) As a 35 year old baseball fan, I have a decent memory of the years when these players established their careers... but I may have graded someone as a bust that actually had a useful career as a relief pitcher for some lame national league team (though I did catch Matt Thornton as a "useful player".) It may also turn out that some of the 98/99 draft picks still blossom into quality ML players. I tried to choose a cut off date long enough ago that that wouldn't be a factor, but I also had to choose an era when I would be instantly familiar with the players. Also, some players show up twice... so Jason Varitek counts in the "all-star" bracket two times, since he was drafted two times. I didn't control for this factor, guessing that it evened out over the long haul. Lastly, as scouting and analysis has improved, the quality of the draft may have improved as well. Fewer teams may be making bad draft picks now as compared to the 90's.

Total number of first round draft picks from 1990-1999: 280

Total number of "all-stars": 31 or 11%

Total number of "useful players": 64 or 23%

Total number of "busts": 185 or 66%

Total number of top 10 draft picks from 1990-1999: 100

Total number of "all-stars": 13 or 13%

Total number of "useful players": 29 or 29%

Total number of "busts": 58 or 58%

As you would expect there is a small, but significant difference between the top 10 picks and the rest of the first-rounders.

If you are evaluating a first round pick, you can expect a 34% chance (or about 1/3 of the time) that that player makes an impact at the major league level. If it's a top-10 guy, you can bump that percentage up to 42%. Assuming there's no gross irregularities in the system, I assume sandwich picks are only about 25-30% likely to make an impact at the MLB level.

This is actually a slightly higher success rate than I thought I would see... though that 66% doom rate (58% for top 10 picks) still makes me more cautious than the average LLer when it comes to setting a value on prospects. These were all guys that looked like studs at some point... often older and further along when drafted than Triunfel (just to pick an example) is now.

I just bought my tickets online. 12:01 AM Thursday night at the Cinerama. Anyone else willing to spit in the eye of the 9-5 workweek and join in? The movie is almost three hours long, so don't count on getting to sleep before 4am or so.

Despite the critics blackout, the film is getting positive responses from just about everyone that's leaking their impressions. And it IS the greatest comic book ever written... so why not do something silly? Movietickets.com has tickets for sale. Do not expect to be able to just show up and buy tickets.

I haven't gone down for a midnight premier at the Cinerama since Lord of the Rings finished up. I remember standing around with hundreds of people (many of whom were dressed up as their favorite characters) sipping on my flask of whiskey trying to stay warm. If you're any kind of fanboy, there's no way to beat the feeling of seeing a film with hundreds of other zealots who are on maximum geek out. I guess it's like a playoff baseball atmosphere.

So here you go: my guaranteed winners, the slamdunk ten best films released in 2008 (presented in dramatic countdown-style format.)

10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I can't say too much about this movie without giving away spoilers. Oh what the heck, it appears that Brad Pitt actually ages backwards! So when he's a child he looks like an old man, and when he's an old man he looks like a child. How crazy is that?! When he meets his lover "in the middle" they are both sexy as hell 40 year olds... but you can't help but think there's a tragic doom impending as he turns into a young boy and she turns into a vamping cougar. I can't comment more than that though because I haven't actually seen the movie.

9. Gran Torino

By most accounts this is a tour de force. Clint Eastwood continues to pummel us all senseless with his gritty performances and redeem himself for making countless crappy movies during the 80's. In one trailer, Clint Eastwood actually snarls, "Get out of my yard, you damn kids" while shaking a .44 magnum most crankily. Well, I got out of Clint Eastwood's yard a long time ago, so I passed on this instant classic. Hope the rest of you enjoyed it though... and I'm absolutely positive it warrants it's slot on the top ten list.

8. Taken

How much ass does Liam Neeson kick? Well I guess we'd actually have to watch the movie to find out! But I can tell you for certain that the trailer looks absolutely kick ass. Liam is all mean and serious and you can tell that the men who abducted his child are in for a brutal beat down. He looks like he's got Matt Damon (Jason Bourne) meets Daniel Craig (James Bond) written all over him.

7. Revolutionary Road

This film reminds me so much of all those Neil Simon plays... where there's always a bar in the living room... and most of the characters are downing four fingers of whiskey in every scene. Back in my acting days, I was all about those scenes. That apple juice tasted good. And we couldn't really afford apple juice at home, so it was a real treat. My guess is that Kate Winslet and "old man" DiCaprio probably muffed a few scenes on purpose, just so they could get another glass of "whiskey". My educated guess is that this film is totally worth seeing. I'm hoping to get to it myself.

6. Rachel Getting Married

Indie dramas always rock. Especially ones about getting hitched. Remember how good Margot at the Wedding was?! Well, this one got an 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, so I'm pretty sure it was good. And, quite frankly, it's important to sneak a few "small" movies into your top ten list so you don't come off as too Hollywood! I wouldn't want to lose my credibility as an ace movie-reviewer guy!

5. Vicki Christina Barcelona

Woody Allen is still alive, and still working through his sexual neuroses. This is a sure bet formula for a great movie. And now that he's quit casting himself as the male lead, you no longer get that creepy feeling as a scrawny old man gets it on with hot young stars. And the cast doesn't get much hotter than this! My sources tell me that there's even a hot threesome featuring Sexiest Man Alive poster boy Javier Bardem. And who are the buns for this man-mean sandwich? None other than Penelope Cruz and Scarlett Johanssen! Va-va-va-voom!!!

4. Waltz with Bashir

Some of you are probably thinking that this is just a rip off of Persepolis... another animated middle-eastern autobiography. But I say, anything a woman can do, a man can do better! What's wrong with a little healthy competition anyway? If Munich taught me anything, it's that Steven Spielberg is the greatest film maker in history... and that it takes a man's perspective (someone that's really been there) to understand why war is bad. It was obvious while watching Munich that Spielberg and screen writer Tony Kushner knew a thing or two about war first hand. I'm betting this film wins the best foreign film Oscar and might even help create peace in the middle east.

3. Doubt

This is probably one of those did-he-or-didn't-he kinds of movies. Lots of shots of the mega-talented Phillip Seymour Hoffman looking either pious or guilty... it's hard to tell (because he's THAT good!) Now I'm categorically against the raping of altar boys, and I'm guessing this film probes that sensitive material... I'm not sure though since I haven't seen it yet. But if this film can get me to "doubt" my stance on Catholic priest sexual abuse, then it must be one hell of a picture. Let it never be said that I don't seek out challenging films!

2. The Wrestler

I didn't need to see this film to know it deserved the #2 slot. The trailer ALONE made me cry. There's that scene when Mickey Rourke is all, "I'm just a broken old piece of meat, and I don't deserve your love... I just don't want you to hate me" and then tears roll down his face! OMG, that is acting gentlemen! (Too bad the academy won't recognize him with a deserved best actor Oscar.) And with that Bruce Springsteen song in the background... I was bawling halfway into the credits of the film I had gone to see.

1. Synecdoche, NY

Let me start off with a modest confession. I haven't actually seen this film either. However, let me follow it up with an even more modest confession. Writer/Director Charlie Kauffman is WAY smarter than me. He's maybe one of the smartest people alive. I don't really get what he's doing 78% of the time. That's how smart he is. So I can tell you unequivocally that this is the best film of 2008, never even having seen a trailer for it. Because if I saw it and didn't like it, I would know that the reason is that I'm just not smart enough to understand it. And neither are you (haha) so go see it right now folks!

Lastly, I want to put out an honorable mention to Let the Right One In. I couldn't actually include it in the top ten list because I haven't seen it yet... but my friend Dan says it's dynamite.

There you go. I may not have seen a lot of movies this year, but that never stopped me from sharing my opinions on them anyway! I wish you a happy 2009 and hope that we'll keep getting this kind of quality entertainment out of Hollywood for another year.

Saturday and all the roads on Capitol Hill are dangerously icy and the sidewalks snowpacked. This means it's time to lace up the cleats and take a nice long walk in search of the perfect onion rings. First get an iPod (or preferably a Creative mp3 Player) and queue up some walking music. If you have any high-quality giant headphones, now is the time to wear them because they will double as ear warmers.

Recommended tunes for walking in the snow:

American Analog Set ~ I'm the Postman

Lovage ~ Strangers on a Train

Lupe Fiasco ~ Day Dreamin' f. Jill Scott

Modest Mouse ~ Missed the Boat

The Shins ~ Sleeping Lessons

Blue Scholars ~ Bayani

Kings of Convenience ~ Gold in the Air of Summer

June Panic ~ Ghosts

Jesse Sykes and the Sweet Hereafter ~ Eisenhower Moon

Beta Band ~ Dry the Rain

Thom Yorke ~ Black Swan

The destination: The Deluxe (sure hope they're open!)

The goal: to drink beer and eat onion rings

The time: 4:30 pm today

Part 3 of today's hot topic postings is necessitated by LONG ASS load times and the failure of my last comment to post. I have at least 500 characters of venom in my bloog. My BVC is 500 miles per hour. There was a perfectly ormal chat happening re: robert's serach for both his jacket and his pizza. RC was about to enlighten us to the secret ingredient in her LImey G&T's (perhaps qualudes) and... I had thoroughly thrashed that vermintz Kevin_Ess, my new nemisis... in a game of "insult each other" but making usre to really scare people like coach, just because. But some rare appearches like POsitive Paul, who may or may not have made a single (malt) drunk post? And there was lots of hip hop links to youtube... which gave me good soundtrack for all night dance party because snow means no workie tomoroow.

Is anyone else wasting ungodly amounts of time playing Fallout 3? I know there was a buzz about it in some earlier threads.

I've just started playing, but could probably share some early tips and impressions if someone wants any part of the game reviewed. Anyone have early tips for me? No spoilers, of course.

Also: I CANNOT get that song out of my head. I've been wandering around at work singing, "I'm not trying to set the world on fire..." That 3 Dog radio station gets repetitive, but they picked out some fantastic music to listen to while roaming the radioactive wasteland.

Anyone interested in invading SBN game threads for playoff teams? The Rays seem like a logical choice, but perhaps we should storm Halos Haven and post pictures of Nelson saying "HA-ha" every time something bad happens to them. Of course, that would mean rooting for Boston. >:(

Anyone have a specific suggestion on game threads to invade? It might be fun to harrass the Cubbies faithful... though it would actually be kind of cool for them to finally win a World Series (and think of the Lou Pinella love-fest that would follow.) And it's easy enough to root against the Dodgers. How about the Phillies? Is Moyer getting a playoff start? Maybe the Brewers... they can't have many posters for their SBN blog. Or maybe we could go razz the Yankees at Pinstripe Alley... oh wait. I forgot. Man, I'm not sure what to do during the playoffs when I don't have the Yankees to root against.

Well, the weather got all shitty... so I guess it's time for the LL folks to consider an offseason of touch football games down at Cal Anderson park. I know the Seahawks accidentally got into the Mariners' vitamin pills have started kicking ass the way they are supposed to. So let's build on their momentum with our own tales of glory.

Remember last year, and that time that Matthew juked everyone out of their shorts and scampered for a 80 yrd touchdown. (Oh wait, that happened like every 3rd play.) But remember the tragic glory of Gomez nose-breaking touchdown catch... Or his rib-cracking touchdown catch... oh wait... Gomez gets injured on like every 3rd touchdown he scores. OK, OK, but remember that time that Bretticus threw an interception... oh wait... that happens on like...

;)

Anyone have some times and dates they want to throw out?

Late addition: Looks like there could be a game as soon as this Saturday... look at the comment below to reply!

This coming Wednesday... over at Bluebird Blather, or whatever they call themselves... let's invade their game thread. Washburn is pitching for us... which ought to be worth about 200 posts alone. Let's lose in spectacular style.

Their average diary only gets about 4-5 responses. So let's blow their minds with a 600 comment debauched revelry complete with inside jokes, MS Paint versions of Washburn hitting on 14 year old ballgirls, and photoshopped versions of JP Ricciardi wearing a KKK hat surrounded by scrappy white players.

Plus we can offer to trade Geoff Baker back to them for Roy Halladay.

*WARNING* Please do not sully Jeff Sullivan's good name or the fair city of Seattle by venting actually racist or misogynistic rants. Drunk posts are not an excuse to be an asshole.

shine on sweet zenith. blaze brother sun, and scorch us into new realms. graham approaches... the wind blows backwards and the trees shudder as something wicked this way comes. drunk posts appear with increasing frequency. rehashed arguments give way to meta-threads, beer discussion, birthday shoutouts, personalized baseball cards. no one cares that we have are mysteriously winning games. could this be the last days?

my vacation starts next week. i bought 6 fifths of alcohol at the store yesterday. after last night Matthew knows how to make a wicked margarita. (BTW, you left your sausage at my girlfriend's house... something i never thought i'd have to say.) i have a "welcome home" present for mighty Grey-Ham, slayer of the Persian horde. can anyone speak to the quality of Aviator Gin?

AND, it's a hundred fecking degrees outside.

i think all signs point toward an epic all-drunk thread sometime around the middle of next week. can we pick a particular game thread to ambush? maybe on the opponent's blog? anyone else feel the need to unleash the dogs of mildly self-destructive drunk-trolling? i guess i can do it by myself if necessary, but that would just be a sad case of a johnny-come-lately trying on the asshat of intox-o-posting. when you're hocking a loogie, why not shoot for the stars?

"also, fuck you and the shift key you rode in on." - e.e. cummings

Poll

Best midweek night for drunken blogging?

25%

Tuesday natch, I'm busy managing Obama's campaign the other nights

6 votes

37%

Wednesday of course, I'm too busy with my fantasy team on the other nights

9 votes

37%

Thursday I'm afraid, I have Bible study on the other nights

9 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

Reading through the Baker-bashing post below... and hearing the various reasons why many people oppose trading Ichiro... I was shocked to discover that so many people expect us to compete for the division crown next year. Honestly, I hadn't even considered that possibility. I understand that 2009 is impossible to predict, since we don't even know who the GM will be, let alone who he/she will sign or trade. But please vote below so that I can figure out if there's any LOL consensus on an overall optimism or pessimism going forward.

Poll

In 2009, the Mariners will...

8%

Make all the right off-season moves and win the AL West, finally putting an end to Angles hegemony.

11 votes

10%

Finish a close second, and maybe vie for the wild card.

13 votes

50%

Finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

63 votes

30%

Struggle to avoid the basement, appearing helpless and hopeless.

39 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed

Author Michael Lewis's worship of the Oakland A's breaks down for me when I look at the bigger picture of the importance of games in my life. He sees himself documenting the triumph of reason over stupidity... as if baseball were a reenactment of the Scopes Monkey Trial. Science and reason are unassailable heroes. Lewis salivates at the prospect of Harvard grads with laptops and databases figuring out a smarter way to run a ballclub. He chortles at clubs who were repeatedly fleeced by Billy Beane's famous trades. He points out the genius of Beane's strategy at every point.

But it's more like corporate ethics masquerading as science. To be ruthlessly efficient and to exploit market inefficiencies is a pathway to winning ballgames. It's the same path that Wallmart founders used to build an economic juggernaut. There is a science to it, but it isn't a paragon of "the scientific approach." And it may have unforeseen consequences.

The broader impact is that it rips away the facade of baseball. The game of baseball... a child's game played by adults and paid for by fans that want entertainment... isn't supposed to be all about maximizing your market leverage. It's about hometown heroes. It's about clutch performances. It's about which player you want to be when you grow up.

The problem is that no one ever wanted to be Scott Hatteberg.

And I dug up some actual data to make this case:

In the seven seasons from 2000-2006, the A's had a monster run... They sustained a near .600 winning percentage despite their woeful payroll. They made the playoffs five of those seven seasons. During that time span the league-average yearly attendance was around 2.3 million fans. Oakland averaged a meager 2.1 over that time frame. Their season total attendance eclipsed league average exactly once... in 2003, the year after they had won 103 games. In 2006, a year when they won 93 games and the division title, they actually drew less than 2 million fans... one of the worst showings in the league. Despite their amazing success in the win column, fans really didn't care. They didn't show up because watching guys take walks and go from base to base rather than risk an exciting stolen base attempt is boring. As much as I have tried to like this team (I always root for underdogs) I was never able to latch on to any of their players either.

Compare this to 1988-92, when Tony LaRussa's club made it to the post-season four out of five years. Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire powered a high-octane offense. Rickey Henderson stole every base in sight. These were a rip-snorting, steroids-injecting bunch of bashers. The average attendance per year for that half-decade was significantly above league-average (about 2.6 million fans per season compared to a league-average of 2.2 million.) People just 12 years earlier had shown up in droves for this same team.

Billy Beane decided somewhere along the line that winning ballgames was the most important goal... Win and everybody's happy. The Mariner's front office conversely seems to have decided that making money is the bottom line, so they worry more about drawing 3+ million fans every year than they do about winning. They put more thought into their funny advertising campaign each year than they do the annual draft.

Personally, I find that the real bottom line... the line that everyone keeps smudging... is entertainment. Professional baseball shouldn't exist. It's ridiculous that we pay grown men tens of millions of dollars a year to play a kid's game. It's ridiculous that I follow it as closely as I do. The only reason I pay any attention to this game is for its entertainment value.

Beane and company are changing the way the game is played behind the scenes (constantly evaluating the market to see what skills are undervalued.) They're also changing the way the game is played on the field (fewer stolen base attempts, more emphasis on taking pitches.) These changes have resulted in more wins. More wins means that other teams are adapting to this approach. Already on-base percentage has become overvalued and the A's have had to start searching for other interesting stats. It's an ever evolving process of trying to outshark the next guy.

The problem is that walks are a loophole. They are a penalty invented by the framers of the game. They aren't what baseball is supposed to be about. The core of the game, which is what made America's pasttime popular in the first place, is a pitcher trying to throw the ball past a guy doing his best to knock the stuffing out of it. Walks are boring. They slow down an already glacial game even more. And yet, Beane's success is changing the landscape of baseball so that more and more players are trained to look for walks. This is, as reflected in the attendance data cited above, BAD FOR BASEBALL... because baseball is still about entertainment and walks can never replace the core dynamic of the game.

Hopefully this has just been a market-correction blip, rather than a permanent change. Otherwise baseball is in trouble. Someone upset the applecart and now Bud Selig and the rest of the game's leadership is going to be hardpressed to fix it. Michael Lewis sees this as something to celebrate... a new kind of enlightenment. I don't think I can agree. These changes are going to force changes in the rules of the game to keep it interesting... like when a video game requires an update patch because enterprising players found a way to circumvent the rules and gain an unintended advantage.

Reading MoneyBall for the first time this weekend. (finally)

The early chapters are all about the 2002 draft, the first year Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta took over from the scouts. Billy had 5 first rounders to play with… and was trying to make them pay off quickly without picking guys who would break the bank with signing bonuses. Much is made of picking Alabama prospect Jeremy Brown, a fat catcher with an insane OBP, in the first round of the 2002 draft. Scouts didn't even have him in the top 25 ranked catchers!

I decided to look up his career stats to see how that panned out for Beane and company... he had a cup of coffee with Oakland, but retired in February of 2008, after putting up an .833 OPS in his 2007 season at AAA Sacramento. He did show good plate discipline throughout his minor league career, with an overall OPS of .809.

Looking over the rest of the Oakland draft:

Beane's biggest prize was Nick Swisher (with the 15th pick.) Swisher enjoyed 2 productive seasons with Oakland before being shipped off for Ryan Sweeney and two minor league pitchers with high k/9 rates.

Another pick (straight out of Paul DePodesta’s laptop) was Mark Teahen and his .493 OBP from St. Mary’s. He had a very good year in AA ball for Oakland before being shipped to KC. His rookie year with the Royals made him a household name… .874 OPS. Now, at 26, he’s tailed off each year and is posting a measly .706 OPS in 2008.

The last bat taken in the opening round was John McCurdy, who absolutely destroyed the competition with a 1.324 OPS at U Maryland… but posted a .667 OPS in the minors, never making it past AA, and retiring after 2006.

The first round also netted Beane three pitchers: Joe "Cupcakes" Blanton (who got rushed to the show and has been a solid middle of the rotation guy for the A’s over the last 3 years,) and two other college pitchers. Ben Fritz looks like he couldn’t succeed beyond AA, though he’s still trying in the Detroit organization now. Meanwhile Steve Obenchain (despite his awesome name) couldn’t do squat above A ball. He spent 2007 in the Independent League. Fun fact: Cupcakes threw 230 innings last year.

2nd Round pick Steven Stanley, a 5’7" outfielder, topped out with a half-season of AAA ball.

The 3rd rounder was William Murphy, a pitcher who impressed, and was part of the deal that landed Mark Redman, who was later flipped for Jason Kendall.

4th Rounder John Baker was a catcher that played the last few years at AAA, he was traded to the Marlins for Jason Stokes, a younger power hitting first baseman (who was picked in the 2nd round of the same 2002 draft.)

Mark Kiger, slap-hitting infielder, kicked around the minors, and now (at 28) is playing for the M’s AA farm team.

Brant Colamarino was touted by DePodesta as "possibly the best hitter in the draft", and he may have been but the #218 pick never managed to hit above the AA level.

6th rounder Brian Stavisky put up some pretty numbers… until he hit AAA where he was overmatched or hurt. LAA picked him up however, and he’s still playing in 2008.

Then there’s a whole lotta names I’m not going to look up… until, sitting way down at the bottom, I see the Athletics’ 40th round pick: Jonathon Papelbon. He elected not to sign, and was then picked in the 4th round by the Bosox the next year. I’m sure Billy Beane threw a chair at a wall when Paps went on to "smear" the rest of the league. (You see what I did there? Haha!)

So Beane and DePodesta actually pulled off an upset in getting good value out of 3/5ths of their first rounders... especially when you consider that they weren't going to touch anyone (outside of Swisher) with a huge signing bonus demand.

---

Looking at the Mariners’ 2002 draft… hmm… #1 John Mayberry is a good player… good enough that the Texas rangers drafted him 3 years later with the 19th pick overall (he elected to attend Stanford.) Mayberry, now 24 is putting up a .905 OPS in AAA.

Our 2nd rounder, Josh Womack spent the first 5 years of his career struggling at A ball.

We also failed to sign our #3 pick, who was redrafted by the Giants the following year.

Our #4 completely sucked and never made it out of A ball.

We tried to draft Travis Buck in the 23rd round. Another signing failure.

But the 39th round saw us pick Bryan LaHair, who’s going into this 3rd year of .800-ish OPS at AAA. He’s only 25.

---

Look at the whole draft here: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/2002/Round-1-1.shtml

The first two rounds contain an awful lot of talent… much of it just now emerging.

You can really see the impact of drafting college guys… most teams are just reaping the benefits of the 2002 draft, while Oakland has already (in Swisher’s case) gotten two good years out of him and dumped him for more prospects.

Fun fact: Micah Owings was actually the second Micah in the draft… behind Micah Schilling.

Brad Evans, sports douche over at Yahoo Fantasy Baseball has this to say about Felix: "STRONG SELL in all leagues."

Evans mostly is complaining about the escalating walk rates and the porous M's defense.

He then goes on to report that Johnny Mac is blaming Kenji and his poor ability to get in sync with pitchers. I haven't been following too closely... has anyone else heard Mac say this?

Personally, I've always thought that a catcher's influence on "calling the game" was important, but a little overrated. What do you think about this possible issue?

The Recommended Fan Posts feature seems wasted... especially if it's just a section for a couple of old posts that used to be important. Why not reserve that section for Upcoming LL Events. That way organizing and RSVP Diaries don't need to be bumped, and we can get an earlier start on planning our baseball/softball/stickball/whiffleball games.

If this were a real fanpost, it would be at least 300 characters.

Scarlett Johansson is auctioning off a date with her to the premier of her new film this July. The proceeds benefit OxFam, a fantastic international agency. Currently there are 96 bids and the total is up to $15,000.

I think if everyone just pitches in a few thousand dollars I could win this thing. If you are able to sponsor my fundraising, I'll be sure to post some great photos and myself and Scarlett at the event. If you're unable to attend a Full Belly Event, this is a great way to show support for my charitable endeavors anyway.

There are millions of YouTube videos out there but I can't just wade through them looking for hidden gems. I know all y'all Lookout Landers have some great taste in humor though. Afterall, I would never know about The Hiphopapotamus vs. The Rhymnocerous if it wasn't for you.

I encourage everyone to post links, or embed vids, of their favorites. It'd be great to have a huge diary cataloging many of the best funny clips from the past as well.

Here's my submission.

Several posters (Matthew, Graham, etc.) have talked about their "numbers" (their systems for creating predictions about how the M's will do this year -- in terms of runs scored and runs allowed.)  

I'd love it if everyone (that is actually running an analysis) would post their predictions for RS/RA.  And you could also post your predicted record (based on whatever version of the Pythag system you use.)  You don't have to give your justification (keep your secret formulas!)... but I'd prefer it if only people with actual systems post their numbers.  I.e. don't just pull some numbers out of your ass.

Also, whoever can find them... please feel free to post the official projected numbers offered up by other blogs/pundits.  My guess is that someone will get bragging rights at the end of the season, and this diary can have all the projection info in one spot.

I've been thinking about the public outcry when "League Average" pitchers get 3 year deals averaging $7 million per year.  People seem to think that a "League Average" pitcher doesn't really help your team (after all, he's just "average") and therefore isn't worth the money.

I violently disagree.

I think the first erroneous assumption is that you can always get AAA starters to pitch for you instead.  But that means giving starts to players like Baek, Campillo, etc...  These are NOT league average pitchers... they are well below average.  They are BELOW average about as much as Santana is ABOVE average.  That is, those starts hurt you almost as much as having Johan starting helps you.

The second erroneous assumption is that you can take flyers on injured players with star potential and probably get a league average starter.  Mark Prior will not be a League Average starter next year.  He may pitch like an average pitcher the last month or two of the season, but that doesn't cut it if you have to give 20 starts to Baek in the meantime.  Same story with Bartolo Colon... he may pitch decently for part of the season, but who is going to cover for his fat ass when he's on the DL?  You guessed it... our BELOW average AAA staff.  The ability to be average for 200+ innings per season is worth a lot.

There is a cost, but a worthwhile cost, to having a stable of healthy, reliably average pitchers.  When your 3,4,5 guys in the rotation are all capable of of .500+ seasons... even stringing together a good month like Washburn and Batista did a few times last year... that's how you become an elite franchise.  That's how you win 100 games.

I'm drooling at the thought of Felix/Bedard at the TOR pumping up our winning percentage while Silva, Washburn and Silva keep us from giving any ground.  That's a dynamite line up... especially with Morrow and/or RRS available to cover starts when someone goes down with an injury.

Depth and stability are precious in baseball... and it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Washburn and Silva got their money.  That's just the cost of decent, reliable starting pitching these days.

And if you're a 2/3 guy instead of 3/4 guy (like say, Gil Meche) you're going to get even more money and more guaranteed years.  At some point, you have to stop thinking "All these deals are insane... that's too much money to pay for this kind of talent" and realize that the stakes are high, the players negotiate well, there are massive bidding wars happening behind closed doors, and that's just how much it costs to sign these players.

Poll

I would rather...

75%

watch Adam Jones chase fly balls surrendered by HoRam

64 votes

24%

watch Raul Ibanez give up some hits behind Bedard

21 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Bretticus hasn't been pumping up the hype... but we had a great game last time and I want to play again.  Last I heard we were planning to play at either 12 noon or at 2pm at Cal Anderson.

The weather forecast isn't great for Saturday, but no one is going to stay cold very long so long as you're running around.

Another option might be to play on Tuesday, New Year's Day... the forecast calls for partly sunny with 45-50 degrees.  But waiting may rule out NightWinger or others who are just in town for the holidays.

We need to figure out who can make it and exactly when we'll start...

Now's the time to put your money where your prognosticating mouth is.  Here's your chance to post a comment that you can link back to next fall to prove you knew what was going to happen all along... and that Bavasi is an idiot compared to you.  

The challenge: predict the performances of the starting pitchers that have been linked to the M's:  Santana, Bedard, Kuroda, Silva, Towers, Lohse, Eaton, D-Train, RRS & Morrow (assuming they get a shot at starting at the MLB level.)  And anyone else you can think of.  

Include innings pitched, K/9, WHIP, ERA+, or whatever other lines you feel best indicate performance.

Poll

Signing Silva means...

6%

We won't trade AJ for shite!

6 votes

27%

We'll have a glut of #3/#4 type starters and finish near .500

27 votes

16%

The M's can't evaluate free agent talent!

16 votes

20%

It doesn't matter with Raul in Left and Richie at first anyway.

20 votes

4%

The M's need to learn how to develop pitching in the minors

4 votes

6%

Bavasi overvalues veterans

6 votes

18%

We'll get 200 decent innings instead of inconsistant suck

18 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed

If anyone makes an even tangentially related reply in this thread, they should get the ban hammer.  This diary is only for those who wish to post absolutely non-sequitur arguments.  The more heated, the better.

Begin:

As a virtual community, Lookout Landing has far surpassed the expectations that any participating blogger could possibly have had... begging the question, when will Lookout Landing "Jump the Shark"?

Hey guys... Lookout Landing's little sister blog, Field Gulls, is trying to get a touch football game going... similar to our awesome Lookout Landing softball games. Go here to check it out... and sign up! I'm sure, like the softball games, that people of all skill levels and athleticism are welcome.

Poll

I'd play but...

16%

I spend my Sunday's getting too drunk to walk, let alone play ball

11 votes

5%

I'm scared that I'll have to cover Matthew or WWBaker or someone else who can run circles around me

4 votes

14%

I'm a wuss

10 votes

43%

I live in freakin' England

29 votes

7%

I don't see what football has to do with the hotstove league

5 votes

10%

I'm still doubled over with Taco Bell gastritis

7 votes

1%

My wife/girlfriend would kill me if I got hurt playing football

1 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

During our Lookout Landing softball games, some folks were talking about how much fun it was to play touch football with the Field Gulls crew.  I started visiting that blog as well, but I'm too new there to post anything.  I looked through the last 20+ diaries, but haven't seen any talk about a football get-together.  

Anyone know what's going on with that?  Seems like a great way to spend a Sunday morning before a Hawks game.  And if Coach showed up, we could even play tackle football!

I'll start off with the Gomez medley.

Gomez, powered by his securely attached belt loop keys, squeezes a pop up in front of Chas.

Later, Gomez admired his wicked snap throw to first.

But upon losing the second game, Gomez sobbed openly in the dugout, reminding us all what this game is really about.

As stated in the other wrap up, Matthew was a beast... both at the plate and in the field. I credit the black socks.

Bretticus sports the Sinking Ship Logo shirt.

Graham was modeling his latest footwear.

Corco... um... out-oranged everyone.

We had only a couple drops of rain... otherwise it was a gorgeous day for softball (as you can see from this catcher's-eye view.)

Robert, Bretticus and WWBaker watching the action.

This guy quietly played very well in both games. Sorry I never got his name. (Update: Shane)

FWombat: Long time lurker, first time pitcher.

"Think you can hit it over my head?! I'll build a fucking wall behind me. Now whattaya got, bitches."

Bad knee and all, I still managed a triple. Or maybe it was a pop up and a three base error. I can't remember, and I never will.

Phildopip rocks the cargo shorts.

Both a game highlight, and my best action pic of the day, Jimmimoose makes the sliding catch.

Moose also scared a few people with that bat.

Someone forgot to tell Robert that there is no bunting in softball.

WWBaker had a solid day at the plate, and played a great shortstop too.

Graham, in his neverending war against the Persians.

And a big happy finale... what a team! (Left to right) Jimmimoose, Phildopip, WWBaker, Jaejo, Gomez, Bretticus, Johnbai, FWombat, Chas, Corco, Matthew, Robert, Graham, Shane

Help me out with names and suggested captions.