SB Nation User Blog: johnbai

LL Tennis Event - June 6

johnbai — Tue, 26 May 2009 20:56:38 -0000

Since there seemed to be enough interest to at least get a couple games going on neighboring courts, or a rousing set of mixed doubles, I'm proposing a LL Tennis Event.

Location is the Madrona Playground off of Spring and 34th.
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UPDATE: Polling has indicated that Saturday, June 6th at 2pm is the most popular option, so that will be the time.

I'm hoping to hear from the folks that expressed interest previously (Lanterman, ACblue, RC, Jaejo, Serotonein) as well as anyone else who might be lured out.)

Tennis?

johnbai — Fri, 22 May 2009 22:43:16 -0000

In the past we've pulled together a lot of very fun Lookout Landing sporting events... we've had stickball, softball and football games... occasionally pulling over 20 people together. While that was fun, the open invite community aspect of Lookout Landing has died down some. And toward the end of those football games, we were lucky to get 6 people showing up. Nothing lasts forever... c'est la vie.

BUT... after playing in a weekend tennis tournament recently, I've been gung ho to play more tennis. The weather is gorgeous, it's a fantastic game, good exercise... and easier to find enough people to play, right? Except... not so much.

I realize I know almost no one that plays tennis in Seattle. Rather than despair, I thought I'd see if there are any Seattlites out there that might want to play tennis. If the intimacy of 1 on 1 matches is a little much for you... we can try to get groups of 4 together and play some doubles... or grab two courts and mix it up. No need to have kick ass gear or anything... and tennis balls are cheap.

One foreseeable issue: Tennis isn't quite the same as other team sports. It may not be terribly fun to play opponents of radically different skill levels. If you're interested, you might want to indicate your experience/skill level.

Sugar: Baseball Movie

johnbai — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:27:25 -0000

As AC recently pointed out, there are no "baseball movies." Baseball movies just use the national pastime as the mileu for a story about "coming of age" or "learning about love" or "making peace with your asshole father" or whatever.

So there's another baseball film playing right now at the Harvard Exit. But Sugar falls into an unusual camp as an art-house/Sundance-style immigration film. The characters are subtle. The plot doesn't go all crazy Hollywood on you. Everything is believable, occasionally touching, occasionally funny, ultimately human. The moments that make you tear up aren't shots of Sugar finally making the big club... but rather when a waitress takes an extra minute to teach Sugar how to order eggs rather than brushing him off as someone that "needs to learn how to speak proper English."

The biggest criticism I've heard is that the film-makers heavy-handedly chose the name Sugar to evoke the idea that baseball players are the new island crop in our exploitative triangle trade system (as sugar cane used to be.) They may have, but the film actually seems pretty even-handed to me. It does not present the US in a uniformly bad light. Here's the best review I found in a brief search.

I'm curious what other people thought of it, or if they are willing to go see it as baseball fans. When I was leaving the theater I said, "That was almost an anti-baseball movie." But after thinking about it for a day, and after reading some reviews... I agreed with something I read: "It was really just an anti-Sammy Sosa movie."

I didn't love it, but I did think it had quite a bit of integrity and I didn't immediately forget it once I had left the theater.

Trying to Better Understand the Value of First Round Draft Picks

johnbai — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 21:53:06 -0000

I've long been interested in trying to shed more light on the true value of first round draft picks... those fascinating commodities... so full of talent and potential. I've often heard arguments about the value of a prized draft pick in terms of his value vs. that of an established major league player. And many of these arguments have seemed to me to be overblown and ignorant of the statistical destiny of our beloved blue chips. In order to be more informed, I decided to do some sloppy half-assed research.

My own personal prejudice is that we tend to overvalue prospects because we cannot help but see them for all their potential and none of their warts. We don't imagine them succumbing to injury in their sophomore year or the hole in their swing causing them to flame out when they get to AAA. We imagine that 2 sandwich picks are excellent compensation for losing a veteran player. But what can history tell us about the true value of those early picks? I spent an hour today looking at all the first round draft picks from 1990 to 1999 to see what percentage of these players wound up being impact players at the MLB level.

I looked at all the first round picks from these years, and sorted the players into 3 categories: all-star, useful player and bust. I have to admit that this was a subjective process. (I'd love to see what another researcher would find.) There were 280 total picks to rank. I also broke out the top 10 picks from each year and did a sub-analysis.

Since I am aware of a personal prejudice I tried to grade fairly. But there are obvious flaws in my research. I was unwilling to look up stat lines for every player. (That would take too much time.) As a 35 year old baseball fan, I have a decent memory of the years when these players established their careers... but I may have graded someone as a bust that actually had a useful career as a relief pitcher for some lame national league team (though I did catch Matt Thornton as a "useful player".) It may also turn out that some of the 98/99 draft picks still blossom into quality ML players. I tried to choose a cut off date long enough ago that that wouldn't be a factor, but I also had to choose an era when I would be instantly familiar with the players. Also, some players show up twice... so Jason Varitek counts in the "all-star" bracket two times, since he was drafted two times. I didn't control for this factor, guessing that it evened out over the long haul. Lastly, as scouting and analysis has improved, the quality of the draft may have improved as well. Fewer teams may be making bad draft picks now as compared to the 90's.

Total number of first round draft picks from 1990-1999: 280

Total number of "all-stars": 31 or 11%

Total number of "useful players": 64 or 23%

Total number of "busts": 185 or 66%

Total number of top 10 draft picks from 1990-1999: 100

Total number of "all-stars": 13 or 13%

Total number of "useful players": 29 or 29%

Total number of "busts": 58 or 58%

As you would expect there is a small, but significant difference between the top 10 picks and the rest of the first-rounders.

If you are evaluating a first round pick, you can expect a 34% chance (or about 1/3 of the time) that that player makes an impact at the major league level. If it's a top-10 guy, you can bump that percentage up to 42%. Assuming there's no gross irregularities in the system, I assume sandwich picks are only about 25-30% likely to make an impact at the MLB level.

This is actually a slightly higher success rate than I thought I would see... though that 66% doom rate (58% for top 10 picks) still makes me more cautious than the average LLer when it comes to setting a value on prospects. These were all guys that looked like studs at some point... often older and further along when drafted than Triunfel (just to pick an example) is now.

OT: LL Watchmen Outing?

johnbai — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:49:08 -0000

I just bought my tickets online. 12:01 AM Thursday night at the Cinerama. Anyone else willing to spit in the eye of the 9-5 workweek and join in? The movie is almost three hours long, so don't count on getting to sleep before 4am or so.

Despite the critics blackout, the film is getting positive responses from just about everyone that's leaking their impressions. And it IS the greatest comic book ever written... so why not do something silly? Movietickets.com has tickets for sale. Do not expect to be able to just show up and buy tickets.

I haven't gone down for a midnight premier at the Cinerama since Lord of the Rings finished up. I remember standing around with hundreds of people (many of whom were dressed up as their favorite characters) sipping on my flask of whiskey trying to stay warm. If you're any kind of fanboy, there's no way to beat the feeling of seeing a film with hundreds of other zealots who are on maximum geek out. I guess it's like a playoff baseball atmosphere.

OT: 10 Best Movies of 2008!

johnbai — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 21:18:25 -0000

So here you go: my guaranteed winners, the slamdunk ten best films released in 2008 (presented in dramatic countdown-style format.)

10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I can't say too much about this movie without giving away spoilers. Oh what the heck, it appears that Brad Pitt actually ages backwards! So when he's a child he looks like an old man, and when he's an old man he looks like a child. How crazy is that?! When he meets his lover "in the middle" they are both sexy as hell 40 year olds... but you can't help but think there's a tragic doom impending as he turns into a young boy and she turns into a vamping cougar. I can't comment more than that though because I haven't actually seen the movie.

9. Gran Torino

By most accounts this is a tour de force. Clint Eastwood continues to pummel us all senseless with his gritty performances and redeem himself for making countless crappy movies during the 80's. In one trailer, Clint Eastwood actually snarls, "Get out of my yard, you damn kids" while shaking a .44 magnum most crankily. Well, I got out of Clint Eastwood's yard a long time ago, so I passed on this instant classic. Hope the rest of you enjoyed it though... and I'm absolutely positive it warrants it's slot on the top ten list.

8. Taken

How much ass does Liam Neeson kick? Well I guess we'd actually have to watch the movie to find out! But I can tell you for certain that the trailer looks absolutely kick ass. Liam is all mean and serious and you can tell that the men who abducted his child are in for a brutal beat down. He looks like he's got Matt Damon (Jason Bourne) meets Daniel Craig (James Bond) written all over him.

7. Revolutionary Road

This film reminds me so much of all those Neil Simon plays... where there's always a bar in the living room... and most of the characters are downing four fingers of whiskey in every scene. Back in my acting days, I was all about those scenes. That apple juice tasted good. And we couldn't really afford apple juice at home, so it was a real treat. My guess is that Kate Winslet and "old man" DiCaprio probably muffed a few scenes on purpose, just so they could get another glass of "whiskey". My educated guess is that this film is totally worth seeing. I'm hoping to get to it myself.

6. Rachel Getting Married

Indie dramas always rock. Especially ones about getting hitched. Remember how good Margot at the Wedding was?! Well, this one got an 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, so I'm pretty sure it was good. And, quite frankly, it's important to sneak a few "small" movies into your top ten list so you don't come off as too Hollywood! I wouldn't want to lose my credibility as an ace movie-reviewer guy!

5. Vicki Christina Barcelona

Woody Allen is still alive, and still working through his sexual neuroses. This is a sure bet formula for a great movie. And now that he's quit casting himself as the male lead, you no longer get that creepy feeling as a scrawny old man gets it on with hot young stars. And the cast doesn't get much hotter than this! My sources tell me that there's even a hot threesome featuring Sexiest Man Alive poster boy Javier Bardem. And who are the buns for this man-mean sandwich? None other than Penelope Cruz and Scarlett Johanssen! Va-va-va-voom!!!

4. Waltz with Bashir

Some of you are probably thinking that this is just a rip off of Persepolis... another animated middle-eastern autobiography. But I say, anything a woman can do, a man can do better! What's wrong with a little healthy competition anyway? If Munich taught me anything, it's that Steven Spielberg is the greatest film maker in history... and that it takes a man's perspective (someone that's really been there) to understand why war is bad. It was obvious while watching Munich that Spielberg and screen writer Tony Kushner knew a thing or two about war first hand. I'm betting this film wins the best foreign film Oscar and might even help create peace in the middle east.

3. Doubt

This is probably one of those did-he-or-didn't-he kinds of movies. Lots of shots of the mega-talented Phillip Seymour Hoffman looking either pious or guilty... it's hard to tell (because he's THAT good!) Now I'm categorically against the raping of altar boys, and I'm guessing this film probes that sensitive material... I'm not sure though since I haven't seen it yet. But if this film can get me to "doubt" my stance on Catholic priest sexual abuse, then it must be one hell of a picture. Let it never be said that I don't seek out challenging films!

2. The Wrestler

I didn't need to see this film to know it deserved the #2 slot. The trailer ALONE made me cry. There's that scene when Mickey Rourke is all, "I'm just a broken old piece of meat, and I don't deserve your love... I just don't want you to hate me" and then tears roll down his face! OMG, that is acting gentlemen! (Too bad the academy won't recognize him with a deserved best actor Oscar.) And with that Bruce Springsteen song in the background... I was bawling halfway into the credits of the film I had gone to see.

1. Synecdoche, NY

Let me start off with a modest confession. I haven't actually seen this film either. However, let me follow it up with an even more modest confession. Writer/Director Charlie Kauffman is WAY smarter than me. He's maybe one of the smartest people alive. I don't really get what he's doing 78% of the time. That's how smart he is. So I can tell you unequivocally that this is the best film of 2008, never even having seen a trailer for it. Because if I saw it and didn't like it, I would know that the reason is that I'm just not smart enough to understand it. And neither are you (haha) so go see it right now folks!

Lastly, I want to put out an honorable mention to Let the Right One In. I couldn't actually include it in the top ten list because I haven't seen it yet... but my friend Dan says it's dynamite.

There you go. I may not have seen a lot of movies this year, but that never stopped me from sharing my opinions on them anyway! I wish you a happy 2009 and hope that we'll keep getting this kind of quality entertainment out of Hollywood for another year.

OTFOD: 12-20-2008

johnbai — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 18:48:03 -0000

Saturday and all the roads on Capitol Hill are dangerously icy and the sidewalks snowpacked. This means it's time to lace up the cleats and take a nice long walk in search of the perfect onion rings. First get an iPod (or preferably a Creative mp3 Player) and queue up some walking music. If you have any high-quality giant headphones, now is the time to wear them because they will double as ear warmers.

Recommended tunes for walking in the snow:

American Analog Set ~ I'm the Postman

Lovage ~ Strangers on a Train

Lupe Fiasco ~ Day Dreamin' f. Jill Scott

Modest Mouse ~ Missed the Boat

The Shins ~ Sleeping Lessons

Blue Scholars ~ Bayani

Kings of Convenience ~ Gold in the Air of Summer

June Panic ~ Ghosts

Jesse Sykes and the Sweet Hereafter ~ Eisenhower Moon

Beta Band ~ Dry the Rain

Thom Yorke ~ Black Swan

The destination: The Deluxe (sure hope they're open!)

The goal: to drink beer and eat onion rings

The time: 4:30 pm today

Acme this.. dont you patronize to me!

johnbai — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 07:37:20 -0000

Part 3 of today's hot topic postings is necessitated by LONG ASS load times and the failure of my last comment to post. I have at least 500 characters of venom in my bloog. My BVC is 500 miles per hour. There was a perfectly ormal chat happening re: robert's serach for both his jacket and his pizza. RC was about to enlighten us to the secret ingredient in her LImey G&T's (perhaps qualudes) and... I had thoroughly thrashed that vermintz Kevin_Ess, my new nemisis... in a game of "insult each other" but making usre to really scare people like coach, just because. But some rare appearches like POsitive Paul, who may or may not have made a single (malt) drunk post? And there was lots of hip hop links to youtube... which gave me good soundtrack for all night dance party because snow means no workie tomoroow.

OT: Fallout 3

johnbai — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:03:03 -0000

Is anyone else wasting ungodly amounts of time playing Fallout 3? I know there was a buzz about it in some earlier threads.

I've just started playing, but could probably share some early tips and impressions if someone wants any part of the game reviewed. Anyone have early tips for me? No spoilers, of course.

Also: I CANNOT get that song out of my head. I've been wandering around at work singing, "I'm not trying to set the world on fire..." That 3 Dog radio station gets repetitive, but they picked out some fantastic music to listen to while roaming the radioactive wasteland.

Playoff Game Threads

johnbai — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:07:00 -0000

Anyone interested in invading SBN game threads for playoff teams? The Rays seem like a logical choice, but perhaps we should storm Halos Haven and post pictures of Nelson saying "HA-ha" every time something bad happens to them. Of course, that would mean rooting for Boston. >:(

Anyone have a specific suggestion on game threads to invade? It might be fun to harrass the Cubbies faithful... though it would actually be kind of cool for them to finally win a World Series (and think of the Lou Pinella love-fest that would follow.) And it's easy enough to root against the Dodgers. How about the Phillies? Is Moyer getting a playoff start? Maybe the Brewers... they can't have many posters for their SBN blog. Or maybe we could go razz the Yankees at Pinstripe Alley... oh wait. I forgot. Man, I'm not sure what to do during the playoffs when I don't have the Yankees to root against.