Hello all,

I haven't written a FanPost for this site before so I'll do a quick introduction. My name is John and I've been a United fan since I spent a year in the UK back in college in 2003. I grew up playing soccer in the US but never knew much about international footy until the 1994 World Cup. I didn't really start following the EPL until I spent a year abroad in the UK. That was the year Arsenal went undefeated, and given my ignorance of English Football history I considered Manchester United to be a plucky, fun underdog to root for. As I learned the history of the club and especially as I became enamored of Ferguson and the squad (esp. Scholes and Van Nistelrooy) I started to become a real fan. Now that I have discovered the joys of online streaming I watch every game I can!

Anyways, in response to the win yesterday I started to look seriously at United's chances of winning the league. For these projections, I'll assume each team will win the games they should, though we all know everyone will inevitably drop points with shock draws or losses. Obviously the win over Tottenham was huge. The win probably knocked Tottenham out of title contention, though their remaining schedule is not very difficult. Here are the remaining games for Tottenham (currently 53pts):

@ Everton, Stoke, @ Chelsea, Swansea, @ Sunderland, Norwich, @ Bolton, @ QPR, Blackburn, @ Villa, Fulham.

Continue reading this post »

EDIT NUSS: Bumped because it's interesting. Money is always at the forefront of conversations with WSU. At least, it is when pot busts aren't.

Hi all,

Someone (hollyweirdcoug?) asked about the financial breakdown for teams participating in the NIT tournament, and I was able to find some information. There's enough of it to make a fanpost rather than a separate comment. All my information comes from reckless speculation, hearsay, and a close personal relationship with someone whose brother had a class from Glenn Johnson.

No, that was a lie. All the information is in the NIT Team Manual, found here (pdf).

Continue reading this post »

I'm a little too obsessed with Bubble Watches and bracket projections. I can't help it - as long as the Cougs have a shot I'll keep reading every opinion by Joe Schmoe (or Lunardi). I thought I'd try to simplify the various convoluted scenarios since there are only a few games left prior to the conference tournaments. I am mainly using the amalgamation of brackets found on the Bracket Matrix Project website, but I also tend to trust Glockner's Bubble Watch more than the others so I'll focus on his take on the bubble too. His latest one (Monday) is here.

Currently, WSU resides in either First Four Out or Next Four Out in almost everybody's bracket. A few people still have us in, like RPI Forecast as an 11 seed (in over K-State & Butler...) and Busting Bracketologists (an 11 seed, UCLA is a 12...). Conventional wisdom suggests these guys are hitting the smack, but whatever. We're somewhere between a solid and a fringe bubble team.

Next I'll put a rough list of teams we really want to lose, and lose often. I'll take a cannibalism within the Pac-10 if it gets us a tourney spot but I think a nice scenario would be to get 4 Pac-10 teams in. Thus we should root for UCLA to do well except, of course, when they come to Pullman. I am not sure UCLA tanking down the stretch would necessarily result in an at-large spot for the 3rd place team in the Pac-10 anyway. The list of teams we want to lose does not include teams that are probably going to get into the tournament even if they lose a bunch, mainly because such teams still have to play teams that are closer to us on the bubble and I'd like the better teams to win.

Teams above us we want to lose:

Illinois, UNLV, Florida State, Clemson, Va Tech, Boston College, Cincinatti, Marquette, Old Dominion, Va Tech, Colorado State, Richmond, Missouri State, Michigan State, UTEP, Memphis, Wichita State, UAB, Cleveland State, OK State, Alabama, Georgia

Teams below us we want to lose:

Maryland, VCU, Nebraska, Penn State, Duquesne, Dayton, Rhode Island

We're also playing a nervy game with a few other Bubble Teams. We want K-State, Baylor, Gonzaga and Butler to do well but not TOO well. If possible, it would be great if most of those teams won one more big game and lost the rest. That could keep their RPI decently up while also making their profile inferior to ours.

So a few important games are coming up. There's a neat feature on the ESPN scoreboard where you can look at the scores for ESPN's definition of bubble teams. Just click where you'd normally sort scores by conference and you'll see an option for Bubble Watch. Tonight, for example, it looks like we'd like Temple to beat Richmond, NC State to beat Clemson, Minnesota to beat Penn State, LSU to beat Alabama, and UW and UCLA to win.

Hopefully this has been more enlightening than confusing. Go Cougs!

With the first half of conference play concluded, I wanted to take a look around the league and start looking seriously at prospective outcomes, including but not limited to NCAA appearances. First, here are the current standings:

Tiebreakers in the table are head-to-head, so at this point we're in 5th despite the better overall record than Cal. Let's first look at who's in the mix for postseason tournaments. I'd say all of the top 5 teams have a chance for the NCAA tourney and USC and Stanford could still make the NIT. This broad statement is based off of nothing more than win-loss record. The top 5 except Cal are widely recognized as having a shot at the NCAAs, but Cal has just enough of a non-con record to justify making it as an at-large if they go bonkers the rest of the season. USC certainly has the marquee wins but has already lost too many games to mediocre competition, so I'd say their only real hope is winning the conference tournament, which they certainly could do. Oregon or Oregon State could probably host a CBI game if they wanted to put up the money, but I don't see them having much of a shot at anything better. ASU is just, well... looking forward to next year? Now for the remaining schedule, not counting the conference tournaments:

Washington schools

Remaining Schedule: at Oregon schools, hosting Bay Area schools, at Arizona schools, WSU @ UW, and hosting the LA schools.

Both schools are looking to go on five game winning streaks, with UW playing ASU before Arizona. Neither team had huge amounts of trouble with the Oregon schools at home, and while it's never easy to win on the road both schools should be favored to sweep. By contrast, both teams had trouble in the Bay Area but should get a favorable home court advantage to see them over the top this time around.  You'd have to figure Washington only has two real tests left, @ Arizona and hosting Wazzu. Arizona State is a team both schools should look out for. They were only swept this last weekend by a combined 3 points! Could be dangerous at home. The LA schools probably present more of a challenge to us, seeing as how we got swept down there to open conference play. However, we should expect to at least split at home.

My Outlook: UW 8-1, WSU 7-2. KenPom says: UW 8-1, WSU 6-3. The Arizona game is a toss-up for us, and I'm not sure if we will win at UW, so I'll mark us for two losses. UCLA is a little scary too but we really should win at home.

Arizona schools

Remaining Schedule: at Bay Area schools, Arizona @ ASU, hosting Washington schools, at the LA schools, and hosting Oregon schools.

Arizona sure has a difficult back end of the schedule. They'd love a sweep this week because they have a really tough four game stretch after their rivalry game. At least they end the season with what should be two very winnable games. ASU might get their only remaining wins of the season against the Oregon schools too.

My Outlook: Arizona 6-3, ASU 2-7. KenPom says: Arizona 6-3, ASU 3-6. I see Arizona splitting their 3 tough weeks and sweeping the bottom 3 teams in the conference. ASU is probably just playing to defend home court, which I hope they do unsuccessfully against us.

LA schools

Remaining Schedule: UCLA @ USC, hosting Oregon schools, at the Bay Area schools, hosting Arizona schools, at the Washington schools. UCLA also hosts St. Johns on Saturday, a game which suddenly has more importance thanks to their upset of Duke the other day.

These schools have a relatively easy home schedule remaining but a very difficult road schedule. UCLA has all its obstacles to the NCAA's in front of it, and they really need to beat Arizona, USC, and split their road trips. Beating St. Johns would be helpful too. They could turn a marginal resume into a very impressive one with a strong finish to the season. But they could just as easily lose the important ones and drop to the NIT. Edge of your seat stuff, here. USC could make a late play for the NCAA's if they win out but short of that I'm not seeing it for them.

My Outlook: UCLA 4-5 (5-5 overall), USC 6-3. KenPom says: UCLA 4-5 (5-5 overall), USC 5-4. I think USC wins the rematch with Arizona and beats UCLA, but otherwise the two teams are pretty similar.

Bay Area schools

Remaining Schedule: Hosting Arizona schools, at Washington schools, hosting LA schools, at Oregon schools, Seattle @ Stanford, Stanford @ Cal.

If they can hold home court, both these schools could finish in the top half of the Pac-10. Cal could even make a fairly impressive case as a bubble squad. Cal has about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, though I don't see them winning either game in Washington. Stanford has the opportunity but probably not the ability to make a late run, but they are a tough out at home and could mess with the top of the standings by pulling off an upset or  two.

My Outlook: Cal 5-4, Stanford 3-6 (4-6 overall). KenPom says: Cal 5-4 , Stanford 3-6 (4-6 overall). The LA schools and Arizona are the tossups here, as I don't see either team winning in Washington or doing better than a split in Oregon. Ultimately I think they have too many weaknesses to make a run despite their favorable schedule.

Oregon schools

Remaining Schedule: Hosting Washington schools, at LA schools, OSU @ Oregon, hosting Bay Area schools, at Arizona schools.

Boy, it just gets better and better for these guys. An unfavorable home slate next week with two tough road trips after that. Probably both teams have a shot at sweeping the Bay Area schools at home, but the real difference in the standings will likely come from the rivalry game. How soon does football season start?

My Outlook: Oregon 2-7, OSU 1-8. KenPom says: Oregon 3-6 , OSU 2-7. Ken actually has OSU blanking out the rest of the season game-by-game but apparently figures they'll nick two games somewhere.

So overall, I think you'd have to say UW has the most favorable remaining schedule. WSU and Cal have pretty good remaining schedules, while Arizona's is a little tougher. UCLA has the best chance to make a statement over the last nine games but by no means will it be easy. Here's how I think the final standings will look, more or less.

This ends up looking to me like the top 3 teams making the NCAA's, UCLA and USC and Cal all having reasonable shots at the NIT, and everyone else doing their own thing. If this holds up, we should have a good bubble resume with wins over (at least) Washington, UCLA, USC, Gonzaga, Cal, Baylor, Portland, and Miss. State (they've finally got their act together). Throw in a win at Arizona and we're really in business. Having read all this, or more likely having skipped to the end, what do you guys think?

As always, Go Cougs!

I'm going to come right out and say the world isn't ending. We will still have a decent shot at the tournament even if we lose this weekend. Why? We have two things working in our favor.

1) Our RPI. While our RPI currently isn't great (#65), it has been climbing and more importantly our opponents' RPI is climbing. Though Portland has fallen (as expected) to the 51-100 range, UCLA has crept into the Top 50, Arizona into the Top 25, Cal is approaching Top 50 (#54), Stanford has almost cracked Top 100 (#111) and Baylor & Gonzaga are holding steady in the Top 100. As the conference schedules go on, expect all games other than Gonzaga, Portland and Butler to look more important. Our SOS will increase and we'll be in a good position heading into the conference tournament. Currently, we are 3-6 against Top 100 teams, but we get a rematch with four of those losses, and three of them at home. Which brings me to...

2) Our remaining schedule. Win or lose Sunday, the next four games seem eminently winnable. @Oregon, @OSU, hosting Cal, and hosting Stanford. This represents a great opportunity to head into our road game at Arizona on a four (or five!) game roll. Arizona will come into that game having just finished a three game road trip, so they could be tired or they could be fired up to be at home, who knows. We then play The Classic Trap Game (sorry) against ASU before heading to Seattle and hosting the LA schools. We have a reasonable chance of going 7-2 down the stretch.

The biggest hole in our resume right now is a quality win. Gonzaga and Baylor have sadly not duplicated their success from the last few years, and close doesn't cut it in losses to K-State, UCLA and Arizona. However, unlike last year's bubble teams in the Pac-10, we have played plenty of quality opponents. 3-6 in the Top 100 isn't a great record, but by the end of the year it could easily look like 7-9 (losing both to UW and Arizona), or if we can steal a game or two 8-8 or 9-7. That's not exactly high seed material but it is probably enough to get us in the tournament.

So losing to UW isn't the end of the world. I think we can finish 3rd in the Pac-10 and make the tournament but we have to win the games we should and maybe even nick one as an underdog. I'm not sure if this team can be consistent enough to do it, but the opportunity is there. Go Cougs!

My fellow Cougars, this was an excellent week for the state of Washington. But for a moment, let's focus on Cougar Basketball (because I'm avoiding making a presentation for school).  A somewhat convincing sweep of the Oregon schools helped us level our conference record at 2-2 and reach 12-4 overall. We were certainly expected to win both games and outside of a rally by Oregon State we did so easily. Since we've reached approximately the halfway point of the regular season, let's look around the interwebs to evaluate the State Of The Cougs.

First, of course, is the excellent KenPom Cougar page. We're currently rated 33rd in the country, good for 3rd in the Pac-10, behind UW (5) and Arizona (17) and just barely ahead of USC (37). Ken gives us about an 80% chance to finish with 20 or more wins, and sees us most likely ending up at 21-9 (11-7 conf.). Game-by-game, however, sees us only favored to lose in three more games - @Arizona and both UW games. Sounds about right to me. Other than hosting Arizona, every other game is a game we should win with 60% probability or better.

KenPom also has myriad miscellaneous pieces of information that may be of interest. The only statistics where we are not at least average are FTA/FGA and Offensive Rebounding - neither of which should be a surprise to fans who've watched the games. The only Coug who ranks in the top 500 players in free throw rate is Marcus Capers, and the only reason he ranks high in that is because all he does is dunk and shoot free throws.  I'm a little surprised that Klay Thompson and Reggie Moore aren't higher on the list and perhaps that's something we'll work on over the year.  Another interesting tidbit - despite playing at least 50% of the available minutes, Abe Lodwick and Capers both register as limited contributors to the offense. Luckily we've had total man-crush posts about both players to help us recognize their roles!

via www.colinmulvany.com

via cdn2.sbnation.com

Over on ESPN, Lunardi has updated his NCAA bracket projections. He's had us taking a play in first round spot for the last few projections but now we're a solid 10 seed (if you're looking, we're in the Southeast region against Temple). Washington gets a 5, Arizona gets an 8, and USC gets a play in first round spot for the right to play as a 12 seed. UCLA is about 8 spots away from making the field. Our RPI (might be Insider, sorry) is 59th, with our best wins coming against Gonzaga and Portland (!). The RPI will get straightened out as good teams play each other more often in-conference, so the value of those two wins will probably decrease while the Baylor win will become more helpful and the K-State & USC losses look less bad. Unless K-State has truly gone off the deep end... Our best news is probably that we have no bad losses, and if we can avoid losing to ASU, Oregon and Oregon State the rest of the year we will finish with zero sub-100 RPI losses. Overall, while it's still early, we're on pace to make the Big Dance.

That opinion is confirmed by several bracketologists other than Lunardi. I encourage you to click that link and check out the Bracket Matrix website. They compile rankings from a whole host of bloggers and analysts along with the date they were last updated. I don't know which ones are actually worthwhile but the matrix is good at least for gauging the wisdom of the masses. We are generally in the 10 - 12 seed range. Another good psuedo-projection is Andy Glockner's Bubble Watch, which is a fun read and is usually updated weekly. He has us "in the mix" and currently as an 11 seed.

Before the season, I think most of us felt we could finish in the top half of the conference and maybe sneak into the tournament but more likely make the NIT. Now it looks like we can play our way into the tournament without needing to do something crazy like finish with a 14-4 conference record plus a couple Pac-10 tourney wins. My best guess is that we would lock a spot, regardless of Pac-10 tourney performance, by winning out at home and only losing @UA and @UW. We're probably in if we lose those two plus hosting Arizona and UW, and we're at the cusp of not making it if we can't beat USC & UCLA at home and take at least 1 of 2 in the Bay Area (without winning one of those others, of course). Tournament teams win those games, at least in a semi-down year for the Pac-10.

Hope this was a useful and stimulating post. This team has been growing in talent and experience and could put together a special run towards the end of the year. And if Klay stays, next year could be truly great. But for now I'm happy to just enjoy the ride.  As always, Go Cougs!

Twas the night before Christmas, and in the Palouse
Not a creature was stirring, not even a Moos;
Dissmore's was closed, and the stoplights were red
And even Rock Lobster was snug in his bed.
The football team's season was over and done,
Went out on a high note (but we wish they'd won);
Across a great ocean, another team lay,
Tired from hours of practice that day.
Only one man could not fall sound asleep,
His thoughts turning inward, searching and deep.
He knew all the pressure had crushed him last year,
But hope sprang anew when fresh help did appear.
"This year is different, we are not the same.
We will find glory and honor and fame."
Though he knew this himself, there was one more test,
The nation was skeptical, demanded the best.
How could they prove they belonged in The Dance,
What would it take to leave nothing to chance?
As he fell asleep and he started to dream,
With visions in mind of a 2-3 zone scheme,
Of isos and backdoors and picks and then pops,
Of hustle and rebounds and stops after stops,
The man knew his destiny would be fulfilled,
For nothing could hinder when he imposed his will.
As the team slept they knew they would win the next day,
For they had their leader, a warrior named Klay.

Guys, the Pac-10 is ours to lose. Washington can't even beat a mediocre team like Texas A&M on the road? Arizona gets their face slapped by BYU in Utah? I think our home advantage in Pullman is at least as good as those places. We can make Beasley a fortress!

I think the top three or four teams will win almost all of their home games. If we can pull it together for a few road games, especially if we manage to win @UW, @ Zona, and @USC. This year is our year! Let's go!

Go Cougs!

We're halfway through the non-conference portion of most teams' schedules, so let's take a quick look around at the State of the Conference. My original post is here, and please note the excellent comment by PaulThomas which lists the various tournaments our teams are participating in this year.

As a quick summary, this year has not been as bad as last year, but it's still bad. Wait, don't look at that link... OUCH MY EYES. Man, that list of losses is impressive, and the notable wins were few. In fact, wins that actually made people across the nation sit up and take notice were.... zero. Actually zero. We're not quite that bad this year.

If anything, we seem to be on pace for more bad losses and more solid wins this year. Go figure. Part of that probably has to do with my taking the conference as a whole, rather than going team-by-team in detail. I think we all know that UW and Arizona are good this year, and barring massive setbacks are our early favorites for conference champions and NCAA consideration. WSU has looked good but has yet to notch anything resembling a signature win. Cal and USC both have had their moments, but while Cal is up and down USC looks to be getting its act together at last. The rest of the conference has been nothing special.

Good wins: Cal over Temple and USC over Texas are (I believe) our only wins over teams ranked at the time.

Good losses: If there can be such a thing, it would include UW to Michigan State and Kentucky, WSU to K-State, Cal to Notre Dame, UCLA and Arizona to Kansas, UCLA to Villanova, Oregon to Missouri, and ASU to Baylor. These were all chances to impress and for the most part we played well in these games, just not well enough to win. I'm not including Oregon's blowout to Duke because all it showed is that the bottom of the Pac-10 has no business being on the floor with a Top 5 team. Shocking.

Decent wins: WSU over Fresno State, UW over Virginia and Texas Tech, Cal over New Mexico and Iowa State, Stanford over Virginia and DePaul, Arizona over Rice and Oklahoma, and ASU over UAB.

I'm not going to list the bad losses or inconsequential wins at this time. They all either have a non-positive or flat out negative impact on our conference. Overall, there have been a few blowout wins over teams expected to keep it close (e.g. UW over Virginia, Arizona over Rice, Cal over New Mexico) and the aforementioned two Top 25 wins, but this conference is currently in the mediocre-at-best category.

Again, halfway through the schedule the conference as a whole already has more decent or high-profile wins as it did last year, and is playing much better in close losses to top teams as well. So we're better than last year. We may still end up with only two teams in the tourney if WSU, USC, Cal or a surprise team do not seize their remaining chances to make an impact.

Important games the next few weeks: WSU vs. Gonzaga (Wed) and vs. our possible tournament opponents (starting 12/22), UW at Texas A&M (12/18), Cal vs. SDSU (Wed) and Kansas (12/22), USC at Kansas (12/18) and Tennessee (12/21), and Arizona at BYU (Sat) and NC State (12/19). We need these games people! Step it up!

Since our conference performed so pitifully last year, I thought it would be helpful to go through all the important non-con games. As we all know, better performance here will likely result in more teams selected to the NCAA tournament. In parsing each team’s non-con schedule down to the important ones, I’m assuming that our teams will beat the "cupcakes," though we all know just how certain those wins are. I consider any true road game against a team with a pulse as important, and I didn’t consider tournament games beyond the guaranteed ones. The games are listed below by team and with predicted results from Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. The most important winnable game for each team is in bold, except I cheated and did two for WSU. Keep an eye on these games as they come up, and root for the Pac-10 to do well (yes, even that team). I’ll try to update the list with actual results at the end of the main non-con part of the season.

WSU:

Nov. 23 Portland (semi-home), 68-64 W

Nov. 26 at Fresno State, 70-58 W

Dec. 3  Kansas State, 68-70 L

Dec. 8  Gonzaga, 71-70 W

Dec. 19 at Santa Clara, 69-66 W

Dec. 22 Mississippi State (neutral), 68-67 W

* Ken says the Portland game is neutral, likely because it’s equal distance from both schools. But I am pretty sure it’s going to be a crimson crowd at Key Arena and thus have labeled it a semi-home game. Ken also sees our only non-con loss being the home game against KSU, but notice how close all of these important games are supposed to be. If we can manage to win one of the two bold games and three of the other four, we'll be in good shape with a top 5 conference finish to sneak into the NCAA tournament.

UW:

Nov. 23 Virginia, 74-67 W

Dec. 4  Texas Tech, 85-73 W

Dec. 6  Portland, 82-66 W

Dec. 11 at Texas A&M, 73-74 L

Dec. 22 Nevada, 89-64 W

* Ken seems to think the Huskies will have little trouble with the exception of @A&M, which should indeed be a good game and a key matchup for comparing big conferences at the end of the year.

California:

Nov. 20 New Mexico, 73-71 W

Nov. 25 Temple (neutral), 62-69 L

Dec. 4  at Iowa State, 70-71 L

Dec. 8  San Diego State, 66-70 L

Dec. 12 Southern Miss, 67-65 W

Dec. 22 Kansas, 68-78 L

* Like us, Ken sees a lot of tightly contested games for Cal. However, they are predicted to be the losing side in most of them. Cal is supposed to take a step back this year, but if they can beat the Temples and SD States of the world it will go a long way towards improving the national image of the Pac-10.

Stanford:

Nov. 18 Virginia, W 66-65

Nov. 25 Murray State (neutral), 64-65 L

Dec. 18 at Butler, 61-69 L

Dec. 21 at Oklahoma State, 66-73 L

* Stanford plays few important non-con games and seems poised to lose them all, though hopefully they pound Virginia into the ground. They are also supposed to lose to something called a "Murray State," which after some research I discovered is predicted to win the Ohio Valley Conference. The More You Know.

USC:

Nov. 20 Bradley (neutral), 65-62 W

Nov. 27 at Nebraska, 59-62 L

Nov. 29 at TCU, 66-62 W

Dec. 5  Texas, 64-67 L

Dec. 18 at Kansas, 59-72 L

Dec. 21 at Tennessee, 60-68 L

* USC plays the most ambitious schedule of all the Pac-10 teams and could get punished for it. They play 3 teams with legitimate Top 25 aspirations and a couple tough road games against potential NIT teams. If the Trojans can steal two or even three of those projected losses they will prove themselves a contender and will greatly benefit our conference.

UCLA:

Nov. 16 Pacific, 69-60 W

Dec. 2  at Kansas, 65-77 L

Dec. 18 Brigham Young (semi-home), 74-75 L

Feb. 5  St. John's, 70-65 W

* UCLA has a surprisingly weak schedule this year. Pacific is on the verge of being a gimme game despite being the favorite to win the Big West conference. @KU is almost certainly a loss, which leaves a couple games with BYU and St. John’s as the only real swing games. It would be nice if they won them both.

Arizona:

Nov. 27 Kansas (neutral), 69-75 L

Dec. 1  at Rice  , 73-65 W

Dec. 5  Oklahoma, 78-65 W

Dec. 11 at Brigham Young (semi-away), 73-77 L

Dec. 19 at North Carolina State, 68-70 L

* Arizona is likely our 2nd best shot to make a non-con statement after USC. They are the first of four (!) Pac-10 teams to take on Kansas this year and have a decent chance to win. They finish up their schedule with two more-or-less road games against respectable teams so they could head into conference play with a head of steam.

ASU:

Nov. 16 at New Mexico, 67-66 W

Nov. 20 UAB, 68-57 W

Dec. 2  at Baylor, 63-70 L

Dec. 5  Richmond, 64-61 W

Dec. 17 at Nevada, 72-61 W

* Tonight’s test against UNM might be the toughest game on the schedule outside of an almost-certain-loss to Baylor. It is especially important because an away win in Albuquerque might be their only impressive road win in the non-con schedule. Let’s go Devils!

Oregon:

Nov. 27 Duke, 65-81 L

Dec. 2  Missouri, 70-78 L

Dec. 17 at Virginia, 63-72 L

* Oregon has already won a couple close games over mediocre teams. Hey, at least they didn’t lose! They shouldn’t be challenged until they host Duke in the Rose Garden. They only have a few tough games this year and probably will lose them all. I’ll be okay with that as long as they don’t lose the "easy" ones too.

Oregon State:

Dec. 4  at Colorado, 62-69 L

Dec. 15 at Montana, 60-59 W

Dec. 18 George Washington, 63-59 W

* OSU doesn’t play a team that will even sniff the NCAA tournament this year, at least as an at-large.  Their only games against Ken’s Top 120 teams are at Colorado and hosting GW. However, they do make a trip to DC (at Howard, Nov. 27th) to visit the family for Thanksgiving. How nice! If OSU can manage a win in Boulder they could enter the Pac-10 schedule undefeated and largely untested.

So outside of a few more-or-less guaranteed losses to Kansas, most of these important non-con games can and should be won. Last year we lost almost ALL of them, earning the title of worst BCS league. Hopefully we can be impressive this year and send a few more teams to the NCAA tournament. It all starts tonight with ASU @ UNM. Go Pac-10, and GO COUGS!

I think most of us agree that the Cougs are looking better this year using the eye test. I wondered if it could possibly show up in statistics as well. So I headed over to cfbstats.com to look at the various conference statistics up to this point in the season, and I thought I'd share some interesting information about where the Cougs rank compared to last year. First, obvious caveats.

1. All games are included, not just our limited conference schedule. This is done for two reasons. First, there is too small of a sample size to just look at conference games. Second, and more importantly, the statistics are already sorted this way.
2. Given 1 above, some statistical conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt. For example, OSU played a very tough OOC schedule, so any statistic where we rank higher than OSU must be examined cautiously.
3. WSU has so far played teams currently rated by Sagarin (chronologically) as 19th, 102nd, 70th, 22nd and 39th - good for the 12th (!) rated schedule in the country.
   
4. By the way, OSU has the 1st rated, UW has the 7th, UCLA 10th, WSU 12th, Cal 13th, Stanford 24th, ASU 28th, Arizona 51st, Oregon 57th, and USC 58th. I would say that overall we should be able to look at WSU's statistics in comparison to the rest of the conference fairly accurately. Perhaps we could even argue that our "true" stats would be relatively better compared to an average conference schedule.

Now I'd like to look at the statistics. Feel free to play around on cfbstats.com yourself, but I'm going to point out categories where we finished last in 2009 but have made strides this year. cfbstats.com shows that compared to the other Pac-10 teams we are:

• 4th in Passing Offense
• Tied for 5th in Turnover Margin (at zero, or even)
• 6th in Time of Possession
• Essentially tied for 8th in 3rd Down Conversion Rate
  
• 9th in Red Zone Conversions (scoring), 8th at TD % in Red Zone and 7th in FG%
• 4th in Passes Defended per game (tied for last in 2009)
• 5th in Opponent Punt Return Average (actually only 9th last year)
  
• 1st (!) in Opponent Kickoff Return Average
• 5th in Kickoff Return Average
• 7th in Punt Return Average

To me, the obvious improvements are in passing offense and special teams coverage. Having a better passing offense is likely tied to fewer turnovers and better time of possession. We are still bad at special situations like 3rd down, 4th down, and Red Zone offense, but not as horrible as last year and not worst in the conference. We'd be higher than 9th total Red Zone Offense if we could convert some of those 4th downs and limit turnovers. We're still good at punting (that goes without saying) but this year our coverage has improved - we're not getting gashed on returns as much. For reasons unknown we are good at preventing opponents from returning kickoffs. This may have something to do with small sample size, I'm not sure. Maybe it speaks to the depth of young talent we have, who are traditionally stuck on special teams the first couple years. I'd lean towards the latter explanation because we also have improved our punt return defense and our offensive special team play.

Overall, I'm happy that our offense is doing so much better, and our special teams play (other than FGs) gives hope for the future.  Other than the curiously improved Passes Defended statistic (especially when teams have been running on us so much lately), we are 9th or 10th in pretty much every defensive category. I think we're close to winning a few conference games if we can just shore up the defense even a little bit.  Our best remaining chances look to be @ASU and hosting UW in the Apple Cup. We have a very real chance of beating these teams (and maybe even Cal) and we seem to be improving weekly.  I'm excited for the future. Go Cougs!