This sucks 

[Azru Edit:]  That sound you hear is the air being blown out of St. Louis's lungs from that wrenching punch dealt to our collective midsection.  To say that was a rough game would be like losing a few limbs and calling it a flesh wound.  Unfortunately, we aren't in a Monty Python movie.  (I'd be an enchanter summoning fire without flint or tinder if we were in that movie.)

Try to stay sane.  We aren't out of it yet though things don't look good.  And please don't kill each other in the threads.  The last thing any of us wants to do is play the heavy after a game like that.

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I'm in my weird literal nocturnal study mode (damn you LSAT!) so I didn't get to see the game but it was definitely good to see Colby Rasmus hit a HR on a line drive in the highlights.  That got me to thinking that it seems every one of his home runs has been a towering shot, and checking hittracker that was indeed the lowest elevation angle on any home run he's hit this year---yay observational powers.

And that got me wondering: he can hit it 450+ feet, why isn't he hitting for power (FJM alert) more consistently than he has.  If he qualified, his average HR standard distance of 409 feet would be 10th in the Majors.  He has 8 "no doubts" which is tied for 12th in the league despite his playing time "issues".  Despite that Rasmus' HR/AB is at 28.9....Butler is the only other guy in that range of standard distances above 22 HR/AB and most are below 20.  Ideally someone could drag out HR per ball in play but it's 3:30 AM, sorry.

Given that he doesn't really have significant contact issues (78.5%, just below average), I don't have a good answer as to why he hasn't hit more HRs.  I don't really know how to coach that raw power to translate into results, but this gives me more optimism about Rasmus than I already had going forward.  He seems a decent candidate to have some 30+ HR years ahead of him.

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To summarize: his stuff is basically back:

• Fastball averaged 91.5, -7.86 horizontal, 6.28 vertical
  
• Cutter 87.0, 1.83 horizontal, 5.38 vertical
• Curve 73.3, 7.26 horizontal, -8.00 vertical
• Change, 83.8, -7.3 horizontal, 7.46 vertical

The velocity obviously is encouraging and as he builds arm strength I can still see him picking up even a full mph.  I already loved his cutter to an unnatural degree, but imagine facing two pitches that come in on nearly the same plane from the same arm action and relatively close velocity......and then end up nearly 10 inches apart.  Good luck.  And then you have to watch out for a sweeping curve that breaks 8 inches down.  Oh and then he's added a "pitchable" changeup throwing it a little less than 10% last night.  Not a big fan that it has the 7.46 vertical movement (more than the fastball....god knows how he's doing that) but it's his 4th pitch and a hitter would be a fool to be sitting on that so it's going to play up. 

I love watching Carpenter pitch.  I can't wait till he gets his command back.

Figured I'd take a quick look at some of the Cardinals pitchers with the Pitch f/x player cards

I know back regarding Ubaldo Jimenez, consistency of release point wasn't nearly as big an indicator as I thought it would be, but I'm still inclined to think it plays a significant role in command and Wellemeyer has been clearly more consistent with his release point vs. last year.  He's also throwing more sliders and fewer changeups (and the changeups he has thrown are actually breaking down more...or rising less technically).  Whatever he's doing it's working.

Our favorite pitcher He Hates Me really does have way more velocity though much, much, much to my surprise he's actually getting more vertical "sink" on the ball vs. last year.  Didn't see that one coming.  I'd probably guess that the slider/curve designations are the result of an updated pitch classifier or something because he threw "curves" last year that had the same characteristics in all 3 categories as the "slider" now...it's still a slurve.  I wonder if the velo is a result of relief or mechanics, probably some of both but he's really focusing on keeping that front shoulder closed by my estimation.

Wainwright seems to have tightened up his release point as well and he's getting an extra inch of break on the curve, otherwise he's pretty much the same.

Now for some reeeeeeallllll change year to year: Lohse's curve is an extra 1.71 inches sharper which represents about a 60% improvement on 3.08 inches.  He's actually lost some velo off the fastball but he's throwing it way...12%...more.  His slider has more break away from right handers while dropping more, probably because he's throwing it nearly 3 mph slower though.  He must have completely revamped his changeup because it's breaking in to right handers about 4.5 inches less than last year and it's got more "sink".  That's gotta be a different grip or something. And we also see a tighter release point (maybe it's an early in the year thing actually and there just isn't enough "wild ones" to shake up the distribution? cause that's 3/4 more consistent than last year).  Again, it's working.

BLooper is throwing a shade harder with some extra lateral life.  Changeup is a bit different but general principle he's the same.

Thompson seems to have turned his slider into a curveball, one that has more horizontal movement and more break down though it's slower.  His sinker also has way, way more sink to it though he's throwing it 10% less.

Izzy is Izzy though there aren't enough pitches to say anything anyway.

McClellan's slider/curve are pretty filthy according to the movement and he's got 93 to back that up.

One more of interest: Verlander's fastball movement is practically impossible...almost 18 inches on the sinker!!!!!.....by my estimation but it's still not sinking, I'd say he needs to go back to throwing hard though cause he's getting lit.

For anyone else who loves following prospects I would highly advise coming out to Columbia to see Mizzou's Aaron Crow on Friday nights he's worth the $5 price of admission.  Aside from being the possible (dare I say probable) #1 pick come June, he's currently the D-I record holder for consecutive scoreless innings pitched with 42.2 and against Texas next week he goes for the NCAA record of 47.  Oh and Mizzou is ranked #4.

Last night against Oklahoma State he clearly didn't have his best stuff at all....and still threw a complete game shutout on only 106 pitches.  (Of course OSU lost three baserunners on terrible base running and were hitting ropes right at people the first three innings, but regardless.....) Last four games: three CG shutouts (~108 pitches per...seriously), and one 8 IP...41 Ks vs 7 walks.

So if you're a Mizzou grad or just love some baseball and/or potential record breaking you should make it out next Friday at 6:30 at home for a big conference series and see the #1 pick and #4 vs. #16 matchup.

For those interested, this guy has compiled a combo of 7 projection systems. Doesn't say which ones, but it certainly looks like ZiPS and PECOTA are involved to start with based on Josh Willingham/Magglio projections. Apparently CHONE, Marcel and Bill James not included (though honestly with the ridiculous frequency where James is the most optimistic I don't really value those anyway). Interesting to look at at the very least, I wonder how they fare against the individual parts. Since PECOTA looks to be involved I'd guess it'd be smart to download the spreadsheet as quickly as possible before copyright stuff starts. Pujols projected to have the top OBP, (outside of Bonds, but since he's not playing...) and SLG--->OPS for what it's worth.

Watching an inning of this is enough to make me laugh...or cry depending on my mood.  Currently what appears to be a ~5'11 12 year old is throwing 75 despite shitty mechanics and is not surprisingly chewing up some team.  Pitcher's frame, velocity good as is but teach him how to actually throw and he's at 80+ easily: what could be a potential career ahead of him.  Combine 75 from 40someodd feet with a pretty nasty slider and I'd be very surprised if runs are scored here.  Despite hitters having no chance at his fastball as is, he's throwing at least one slider in most AB's that's getting waved at by these kids.  

Which brings me to my point: this kid has no chance at having all his original elbow ligaments and shoulder pieces when he's 20 if he keeps pitching.  I see the word "tear" in his future.  But man he sure is great at 12.  

#1. Please parents, do not teach your kids sliders/curves till they get to high school minimum.  If for nothing else don't do it for my sake, I like watching good pitchers in the big leagues.

The reaction time on a 75 mph pitch at whatever distance they are at is equivalent to that of a 98 mph fastball.  Against a 12 year old?  No chance.  If your kid can't dominate Little League hitters by just commanding fastball/change...your kid isn't that good so spare them the future pain of surgery...the hitters aren't that good.

Anecdotally yet not surprisingly, BY FAR the best futures lie ahead of guys I know who didn't throw any of that crap till they were 17.  They didn't need to earlier and are better now for it.  Those are  the guys that are getting paid now to throw balls at home plate.  On the other hand, almost all the 'Johnny 12-year-old CurveBallers'  ended up with a noodle arm by their freshman year in high school if not earlier.  Though I will say they were ridiculous in 6th grade.  Is that what you want to look back and see?

#2. Find someone who knows mechanics and learn.  I am going to be conservative when I say 98% of little leaguers throw with terrible mechanics...taught to them by parents and pitching "coaches".  Which brings me to: I went through all kinds of pitching coaches but when I later learned how to actually throw I realized those guys knew nothing (I'm not being hyperbolic).  Don't trust a guy because he charges $50/hr.  If they don't mention "arm action", they probably don't know what they are doing.  Mechanics are far far far from a precise science, but the instinctual way of throwing, at least that taught to the 98% is definitively bad as well as inefficient.

Sorry for that rant, but I can't stand watching these guys slowly blow up their arms pitch by pitch.