Big debate over in one of the Kendall threads regarding catcher defense metrics and whether they appropriately weight things or, indeed, are even worth a hoot.  It's primarily between WURoyal and NYRoyal, with some other contributions (most notably from AxDxMx).  WURoyal is concerned that we're just not paying enough attention to the importance of preventing runner advancement.

However, that thread has turned into the Narrow Column, and it's become unwieldy... and in the process of trying to respond to it, I realized that it was probably worth a post on its own, because it will either incite more debate, or will serve as a primer on the individual play impact of something a lot of people either seem to think can't be measured or don't measure correctly themselves.

(I should also note that I started working on this post a couple of days ago; since then, d_f has outlined his figurations, which take some of the following into account as well.  But I'm going with the post anyway.)

In short: there is a value to a catcher against whom baserunners are afraid to run, but it's not nearly as important as you might think.

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The other night, our man Mitchell stepped to the plate against Eddie Bonine of the Detroit Tigers with the game in a scoreless tie and runners on second and third, two outs.  Mitch put together a fine, fine plate appearance, working the count full and fouling off some junk before ripping a base-hit to left which drove in a run before The Human Windmill worked his magic to end the inning.

I realized something during that plate appearance, though; something which really shook my faith in a sort of tenet of sabermetric dogma:

Sometimes, a walk is truly a suboptimal result for a hitter.

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Dear Dayton,

I know it's been a rough season for you. Things just haven't gone the way you planned, and although you can't come out and admit it to the press, I'm certain that you know mistakes were made. Terrible mistakes. Frankly, I'm disappointed both in the team's performance, and in the "process" you're asking us to trust; the former for obvious reasons, and the latter because it certainly seems to be a flawed process. That's what I'd like to talk to you about.

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I made an off-hand comment in the ASG game thread about how I'd like to see the ASG be a game between the big-market and small-market teams, and billybeingbilly challenged me to come up with the rosters.

So, I did.

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So we've all been over the same rocky ground before; Trey this and Trey that, stupid or just normal, fire him or get a grip.  It's all good discussion, regardless of what our Eternal Hero might slur on the local news; we're fans, and when you get right down to it that's our job.  We all know that letting The Professor pitch to Babe RuthJim Thome was a bad idea, but this isn't about rehashing that.

No, this is about why we overreact.

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