SB Nation User Blog: jonfmorse

Sheehan Says Aviles May Deserve RoY

jonfmorse — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:27:14 -0000

Hey, guys! Still busy moving, but saw this and nobody else has posted (probably because I think it's BP Premium content, so sorry about that).

Sheehan: AAR and IBA

American League Rookie of the Year

   1. Evan Longoria
   2. Mike Aviles
   3. Joba Chamberlain

Longoria's VORP edge on Aviles is tiny, and what's surprising is that his defensive edge, at least in the plus-minus system, doesn't exist. Aviles was +15, Longoria +11. I had no idea Aviles had sustained his hot start, and there's a pretty strong case for him ahead of Longoria, based largely on him being a better defensive shortstop than was advertised. Chamberlain pitched very well in both his roles, and could have won had he stayed on the mound all year.

Sheehan gives the AL MVP and Cy Young to Cliff Lee (with honorable mention to the Mexicutioner for the latter), and AL MoY to Madden. NL, it's Pujols, Santana, Geovany Soto, and Fredi Gonzalez.

I'm not sure whether they're restricting the IBA to premium users, but if not be sure to vote when they go live in a few days. Maybe we can push Aviles over the top.

Nice to see the Tigers all alone in last place -- now go Twins!

Were We Just Not Trying Hard Enough?

jonfmorse — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:37:28 -0000

The Royals all got the message loud and clear from general manager Dayton Moore: Change is coming.

There was Moore’s public pronouncement Sept. 2 in The Star. And there was the more private meeting, shortly thereafter, in which he bluntly informed the players that (a) he was coming back; (b) manager Trey Hillman was coming back; and (c) not all of them were coming back.

Those paragraphs open a piece by Bob Dutton in today's Star. And it gets you wondering, given the timing of both the private meeting in question and the beginning of the team's recent tear.

The Royals were floundering, having stumbled along, sleepwalking as it were, through a 7-20 August and beginning September 4-4. Nothing was going right, and while it seemed that 100 losses was still off the table, the mid-90s were beckoning with the skeletal hand of the anthropomorphized version of Death Incarnate.

But suddenly, Dayton Moore steps into the clubhouse and informs the team that jobs are on the line -- and since then, virtually every member of this team has suddenly begun to Not Suck. Over the last fourteen days, the team OPS is .877. That's right, the TEAM. Let's look at the lineup over the last two weeks, by OPS:

C  Buck:       .406/.481/ .888
1B Shealy:     .364/.620/ .984 (with 5 HR)
2B Callaspo:   .436/.543/ .979 (.543 SLG?  CALLASPO?)
3B Gordon:     .391/.595/ .987
SS Aviles:     .375/.566/ .941
LF Guillen:    .370/.388/ .758
CF DeJesus:    .500/.703/1.203
RF Teahen:     .314/.429/ .742
DH Butler:     .385/.458/ .843 (1.489 OPS over the last week)
    Gathright: .750/.667/1.417 (only 8 PA)
    Ka'aihue:  .400/.538/ .938 (only 15 PA)

Maier has 24 PA with a .573 OPS. Olivo: 20 PA, .500; Pena: 13 PA, .558; German: 17 PA, .527. Gload has had 2 PA, and who cares.

Does this tell us anything? Well, small sample sizes hardly ever do, but I think we can at least tell who's decided to fight for their jobs, and who just doesn't give a damn. Guillen and Teahen have failed to step up. Of course, we're pretty much stuck with one of those unless Dayton finds a sucker. Everyone else in the starting lineup, though, grabbed their bootstraps and hauled. This streak has been a total team effort on the part of the offense (which, not coincidentally has scored a ridiculous 81 runs in two weeks).

On the mound, meanwhile, the staff has compiled a combined 2.31 ERA in the last fourteen days. That's just sick. Young Hiram has, of course, been a key to this, going 3-0 over that span, averaging exactly 7 IP per start, and coughing up all of 2 ER. Meche has provided 19 IP, going 3-0, 2.37, while Zack's gone 2-0, throwing 14 innings of shutout baseball. That's 1-1-2 performance right there. Duckworth went 1-1, 3.75, which isn't bad at all but doesn't matter in the scheme of things.

Bannister, on the other hand... well, he DID provide two wins, but that's 2-1 5.29 for our boy genius. He'll be around next year, but he needs to figure out what he's doing.

Soria's thrown five scoreless innings and picked up five saves. Ram-Ram's tossed 3.2 innings at 2.45. Nunez, 6 scoreless. Peralta's pitched in with two scoreless. Yabuta, 3.1 scoreless. Jimmy Gobble has provided four scoreless innings. Bale's tacked on another five.

Indeed, the only problems in the bullpen have been Wells and Lowery each throwing one inning and allowing 1 ER (9.00 ERA, but nothing to sweat over really), Robinson Tejeda allowing 2 ER in 1.2 IP, and... Mahay, whose three-run inning the other night sums up his contribution over the last two weeks. (He did have another 1/3 inning appearance last week, scoreless.)

I don't think we learn much from the pitching staff, except perhaps that Dayton's meeting had some impact on Davies. The relievers simply didn't get enough innings to determine whether they've stepped it up; any one of them could have had a balloonish ERA by coughing up a two-run homer.

“We should have been playing this way all year long,” pitcher Zack Greinke said. “We’ve just underachieved. I guess by the end of the year, the numbers aren’t terrible. But we expected more than this.”

Yeah, Zack... that's exactly right. With the screws put onto them, almost every member of this team stepped it up, which means they could have done better the entire season. (You, however, get a pass, my young friend, as you have done everything asked of you and more.)

Small sample size... doesn't mean much, but when the boss is looking to slice fat off the payroll in order to go all-in on the next set of building blocks, tanking the last two weeks of the season after being told the layoffs are coming? Bad plan. Teahen, Maier, Olivo, German... you've probably written your tickets out of here. Guillen's probably put himself on the trading block (if that's even possible). Butler's actually done well over the last two weeks, but in comparison with his own teammates he's not made a big impression, and may find himself as trade bait.

But Buck may have saved his job. Gathright certainly hasn't hurt his cause, although 8 PA isn't enough to put any weight on even if you're deliberately considering small sample size. In the pen, Gobble and Bale have asserted themselves, while Davies has probably earned his spot in next year's rotation, while Bannister's put himself at risk of a visit to Omaha.

But I don't see a big trade. The only real chips are true keepers: Grienke (Dayton's allegedly in the hunt for a starter as it is), Soria, and DeJesus. DeJesus isn't the chip he could be, either, because his injury situation severely decreases his value.

And now, we prepare for game 162, and a crucial off-season. It'll be interesting to see what Dayton does -- and whether the team's performance (good or bad) truly influences his decision-making. If Teahen's not wearing Royal Blue next year, you'll know the answer.

And on that note, after today's game, I bid you all adieu for a few days, as I load up the truck and move to... well, not Beverly Hills. Grapevine, TX, where I'll be forced to endure the Texas Rangers as my local team. It's okay; I've done it before, for almost 8 years. But, you know, the Royals were actually still very good then, so it wasn't quite so painful.

(NSFW) George Brett: Explosive, or Just Messing with the Rooks?

jonfmorse — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:25:04 -0000

(NSFW) George Brett: Explosive, or Just Messing with the Rooks?

I didn't want to embed this YouTube video due to its content, so I'm just linking to it instead. Someone sent me this, and it's extremely crude and vulgar. George tells some rookies at spring training a story about food poisoning. Personally, I think he was just messing with them, but some folks seem to think he was serious...

Game 113 Overflow Thread

jonfmorse — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 02:24:17 -0000

Our mods have abandoned us, NHZ is afraid to watch the Royals and Red Sox combat one another, Aviles is ONLY 1-4, the bum, and Meche was masterful while Masterson is on for the Sawx. So I guess I'll save the day with an unofficial overflow, assuming I can pad this intro with enough words to make the silly error message go away and allow me to post the darned thing! Okay, five more words, then.

A Series of Unfortunate Events

jonfmorse — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:03:43 -0000

I've been reading, and watching, and pondering the fallout from yesterday's little fracas with some level of detached bemusement. A lot of things have been said, and very few of them actually make any sense. Some of them got covered in the post-mortem thread, but let's try and break this down piece-by-piece.

First, let's cover the main point of contention from His Craziness, Ozzie Guillen. Guillen was furious that his pitcher got the thumb without any warning having been issued. I'm going to be fair to Ozzie and agree that this was probably a bit harsh. The problem here is, there should have already been a warning issued. Carrasco had already nearly decapitated Olivo twice. Bill James once argued convincingly that umpires should have the authority to run a guy just for being dangerously wild; his point was that it's not a punitive measure, but a safety measure. Gary Cederstrom should have pointed at Carrasco after the pitch which wasn't a HBP but could have been and said "That's it, one more and you're gone." His failure to do so directly contributed to the situation. I understand that doing so would have been somewhat extraordinary, but it's the umpire's responsibility to both recognize a potential threat and to protect the players on the field where possible. I do not for the life of me comprehend how, after already having thrown two pitches in the vicinity of a batter's head, an umpire could not at least consider the possibility the pitcher's gunning for him. It is beyond all rational belief.

Cederstrom, for his part, exacerbated this situation post-game by apologizing to Guillen. He apologized for the wrong thing, however; he should have apologized for not issuing the warning a pitch earlier, not for running Carrasco without the issuance of a warning. Of course, even then, this misses the point; Carrasco took a swing at Olivo while he was being held. Never mind that it was a embarrassing and ineffective swipe; it was enough justification to get ejected regardless of his intent with the pitch.

Guillen then went on to argue that there's no way he would have instructed a pitcher to throw at a guy with the bases loaded, and the talking heads parroted this line as if it were the true gospel of Alexander Cartwright himself. The talking heads neglected to consider one thing, that being that Guillen was being mendacious in saying it: the game was essentially already over at this point. Giving up another run? Big deal. Does anyone really believe that Ozzie's not crazy enough to give up a run deliberately when the game's already lost just to get a little revenge? In fact, is there really anyone who in retrospect doesn't think that's the perfect time for Ozzie to headhunt someone and then look innocent and claim he wouldn't do it in that situation? Everyone knows Ozzie is an insane genius, but this thought never occurred to the experts employed by the Worldwide Leader?

Yes, perhaps it's true; perhaps Carrasco was just wild. I know that when I see a pitcher who's lost control, it's completely common to see them basically hit the exact same spot with three straight pitches. Please. Greg Maddux would have had a hard time throwing those three consecutive pitches with such superrnaturally consistent accuracy.

And then we have John Kruk, whining like a wounded boar about how unfair it is that good teams can't retaliate in these situations while "last place" teams have nothing to lose. John, perhaps you want to rethink that (as well as taking a look at the standings, which you, being an expert, should be presumed to be familiar with before going on the air). Considering what the Royals have done to the White Sox over the last two weeks, it's arguable which one of these two teams is the "good team" anyway, but that's neither here nor there. The "good team" in your eyes is not the team that was prevented from retaliating. To "retaliate" is to "requite or make return for a wrong or injury with the like." Was Kruk really suggesting that, in the wake of the Royals retaliating for Carrasco's "lack of control", the White Sox should then have been allowed to retaliate right back simply because they're in a pennant race? What asinine logic.

Oh, and John? I like how you completely missed the distinction between Zack Greinke laying a pitch into the well-padded ass of Nick Swisher vs. DJ Carrasco aiming at Miguel Olivo's head. Well played.

Obviously, I'm biased in this, being a Royals fan and considering the White Sox to be an organization roughly equivalent to E. coli. But all this requires is some rational thought. I just wish the national media were more capable of same as we basement-dwelling nobodies without journalism degrees.

This may seem strange coming from a BP guy, but the truth is pitchers are babied these days, and...

jonfmorse — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 19:39:03 -0000

This may seem strange coming from a BP guy, but the truth is pitchers are babied these days, and that babying has gotten out of hand."
--Joe Sheehan

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7858

FJM vs. The Kansas City Star

jonfmorse — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:43:31 -0000

FJM vs. The Kansas City Star

Well, Jeffrey Flanagan, anyway. I hope our intrepid actuary understands that when the Star sports staff has a big dinner get-together, Flanagan has to sit at the kids' table.

Steve Mingori, 1944-2008

jonfmorse — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:27:06 -0000

In the wake of our thrilling comeback victory and Mark Teahen's eruption of hustle comes very sad news. Former Royal reliever Steve Mingori passed away Thursday of natural causes at the age of 64.

Mingori, a native Kansas Citian, was a valuable piece of the Royals' division-winning teams of the 70s, although never being considered one of the stars of the team. Our compatriot RoyalsRetro recently wrote an in-depth profile on Mingori, ranking him as the 62nd greatest Royal of all time, so I'll direct you there for more on his career.

I'm sure I speak for the entire RR community in offering condolences to the Mingori family. Rest in peace, Mingo.

"Well, You Won't Have Old Joe Bo to Kick Around Anymore."

jonfmorse — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:26:24 -0000

"Well, You Won't Have Old Joe Bo to Kick Around Anymore."

Dear Dayton:

NO! Bad hands! No touch!

Scherzer: Smarter than Banny?

jonfmorse — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:00:29 -0000

Scherzer: Smarter than Banny?

Free article at BP: Eric Seidman interviews Max Scherzer, and Max is a stathead!