SB Nation User Blog: jonk

We've been REAL lucky people...

jonk — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:44:11 -0000

But now we have to step it up. A lot has been made about BP's 3rd order wins and how the Mets are significantly better than us. Instead of looking into that since the statistic is fairly complicated, I'll simply look at the difference between OPS For and OPS Against. I have referenced that numerous times here and it does a good job of removing park effect since you and your oppoents play on equal ground.

Team	OPSF	OPSA	DIFF
Phillies	.786	.810	-.024
Mets	.750	.737	.013
Marlins	.726	.734	-.08
Braves	.716	.714	.002
Nats	.747	.800	-.053

Yeah, you read that right, we have the second worst OPS differential in the NL East. How we have maintained 1st place is pretty amazing. Most of it is probably due to our pitchers giving up a ton of solo homeruns and not walking too many hitters. Either way, we have a 1.5 game head start with the second worst differential, and what has happened doesn't matter anymore. What matters is what WILL happen and the Phillies won't be as lucky in the future games if they continue to have this kind of split.

Platoon Pitchers?

jonk — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:28:53 -0000

Non-Phillies idea here, but I was wondering if it would make sense to platoon pitchers. If you had Micah Owings on your team (and maybe Dontrell Willis of old), you basically put on in left field while the other pitches and switch back and forth between left handed and right handed batters. The platoon advantage you get might be worth the 1 less bat in your offense even if you don't have a Micah Owings.

Obscure Phillies

jonk — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:15:02 -0000

This will be a group project. Post your links to obscure Phillies, ones you remember or don't. Reading WholeCamel's link about Doug Glanvile, I was wondering when the Phils started off 0-14 getting pounded by the Braves and Marlins. I noticed he was referring to the Cubs and looked to see when the Cubs played the Phils. There I saw a name I don't ever recall seeing before.

Edgar Ramos:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramosed01.shtml?redir

He pitched in four games for the Phillies.

"December 9, 1996: Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies from the Houston Astros in the 1996 rule 5 draft.

June 6, 1997: Returned (earlier draft pick) by the Philadelphia Phillies to the Houston Astros. "

Anyone else remember him?

Do the Phillies need a #1/#2?

jonk — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:59:18 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Paul Maholm pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 28, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

Browse more photos »

We all know the Phillies need one more pitcher. Myers filled the role perfectly last year coming back from the minors and pitching lights out. While a lights out pitcher would be great, we really don't NEED one (assuming Cole comes back around). What we need is a guy who is league average and lets our offense put up the runs. I wasn't a HUGE fan of the Blanton move last year, but he performed his role perfectly and I completely miscalled that. He was what this team needed, a guy who posts a 4.50 ERA and wins because of the offense.

There has been talk about Penny, Oswalt and now Wang, but the pitcher that I think would be the best move for the Phillies is...

Paul Maholm.

He has a career 4.30 ERA and GB/FB ratio that would make your mother blush at 1.2. He doesn't strike out a ton, but he keeps the ball down and in the park, which is perfect for CBP. He is in his 4th year making $2.5 mil, but I think the Phils could offer a decent deal to bring him over and he'd compliment this stadium and our offense very nicely.

Of course, him and Pedro would be even better...

Can't stop being Werthy...

jonk — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:31:05 -0000

Ok, lame title, but Werth has been smokin...

10 plate apperances, 10 times on base, a ton of walks and a homer. OBP went up over 20 points in 1 day. The prior two PAs were a sac fly and a hit.

Back away from the bridges people...

jonk — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:52:03 -0000

Remove your head from the nooses, put down the gun, stop sharpening the knives, turn off the toaster, stay away from the prositutes...

All that matters is winning the NL Least. We are 2 games up. When we are two games back, then it is itime to panic.

That is all.

MLB, it's time to fix things...

jonk — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:18:29 -0000

As a lot of you know, I have bemoaned on here before about the unfairness between the two leagues. Since we are in the midst of Interleague Play (which I actually like to a degree), I'll complain a little more.

I am shouting it from the rooftops so all can hear:

Life is better in the American League, EVEN with the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Analysts love to mention that the AL is the superior league with better talent. I am sure in some ways that is true, but to what extent? Does interleague play record really show the difference? I don't think there are any real answers to this, but I do know this it is almost impossible to measure since there are multiple differences between the two leagues, and most benefit the AL.

Problem: The DH is a huge advantage for American League teams. How NL owners don't see this inherent disadvantage in interleague play and the World Series, I have no idea. American League teams pay one player to be the DH at all times. NL teams do not have that luxury. Look at Sheffield for an example. A rumor had him coming to the Phillies this past year and he wouldn't because he thought there was no chance at starting at all. That was 42 year old Gary Sheffield. DH stats are skewed because often a better hitter on a NL team will DH while the slick fielder plays in his spot. However, look at the bottom of the list. Even with a small sample size, we see the bottom 10 teams are all NL teams. Sketchy data? Sure, but I think we can still see a pattern there.

Solution: Put the DH in the NL. I don't care to see pitchers hit. It's not fun and is usually aggravating watching a pitcher hit with 2 on and 2 out. The DH is a good rule and should be adopted in the NL.

Problem: The number of teams in each league. The AL has 14 teams while the NL has 16. This creates a disadvantage for NL Central teams and a significant advantage for AL West teams. If all those teams were identical, the AL West team would have a 25% chance at making the post season while the NL Central team has a 16% chance. In addition, if you remove the 3 division winners, there are 11 AL teams fighting for the WC spot and 13 NL teams. That's a 9% chance for an AL team to get the WC and a 7.7% chance for an NL team. That makes it even easier for an AL West team and harder for an NL Central team.

Solution: There are 2 possible ones. Option A is to move the Brewers back (or whatever) and have an interleague series occur all the time. I kinda like that, but I like option B better. Add two more teams to MLB and split them up like the NFL does with 4 per division and 8 divisions overall. Then, make a TRUE divisional series by having the best team in the division play the #2 team to see who makes it into the "playoffs". That removes the problem with the unbalanced schedule screwing over teams fighting for the WC in harder divisions. Yeah, half the teams make the playoffs, but honestly, getting more cities involved is always more fun.

Where is Pedro Martinez?

jonk — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 13:08:44 -0000

Anyone got the scoop on him? I have read in a few places teams are thinking about him. Is he still unable to pitch, cause I am not sure what there is to think about especially since someone snagged up Freddy Garcia.

I want me some Pedro.

LH LH LH

jonk — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 03:32:05 -0000

Not to kill the vibe of this great win/demoralizing loss vibe, but we almost got bit again on the LH LH LH Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Feliciano comes in and shuts them all down. That is where having Werth hit against a lefty could be huge.

Where Charlie really gets this wrong is that he starts the 3 lefties in a row against a righty. That makes less sense than starting them in a row against a lefty. They are going to get thier ABs against the righty no matter what, whether it is in a row or separated by a right handed hitter. What you are then doing is setting up for the checkmate for the other team to bring a lefty right in.

The only way this is viable against a righty is if you are willing to PH for one of your lefties, which the Phils are not willing to do (and I am not saying that they should). Split Howard and Ibanez with Werth. Howard might actually get some walks when facing a righty then.

Pump us up on Amazon

jonk — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:25:58 -0000

Shameless stuffing the ballots is ok with me (and MattS too).

http://www.amazon.com/The-Good-Phight-Phillies/dp/B000N8V2II/ref=sr_1_17?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1198032592&sr=8-17