SB Nation User Blog: jonk

Playoff Rotation

jonk — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 05:15:01 -0000

I think the short 5 game series in the first round puts extra emphasis on your top starters. It is possible to have two excellent pitchers start 4 of the 5 games (with only one going on short rest). The Phils are in a good situation to take advantage of that. I had talked about this earlier, but I am actually changing how I'd pitch my starters.

Myers: Wed Sept 24th
Hamels: Tues Sept 23rd
Moyer: Sat Sept 27th

Gm 1	Wed	Oct. 1	Myers	6 days
Gm 2	Thu	Oct. 2	Hamels	8 days
Gm 3	Sat	Oct. 4	Moyer	6 days
Gm 4*	Sun	Oct. 5	Myers	3 days
Gm 5*	Tue	Oct. 7	Hamels	4 days

I'd throw Myers out there for game 1 and have him pitch on short rest instead of Blanton (assuming he was successful). Going on that Myers last two games were a blip and that he was successful on short rest before, I think this would be our best pitching roatation. He'll have an extra 2 days of rest prior to game one, and this allows us to pitch Hamels in game 5 on normal rest or even start the next series if we win it before 5.

To me, this looks like the best possible way the Phils could manage their post season staff. If Myers blows up in game 1, then by all means, use Blanton if we get to game 4. However, leave yourself the option if Myers pitches lights out.

Phillies need to capitalize

jonk — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:49:05 -0000

Off of the bomb scare yesterday. They need to throw some chili, cheese wiz, hot sauce and pickles onto a hotdog and call it the Bomb Dog. I know I won't eat it, but there are a ton of fat slobs in Philly who will and they will be fighting the terrorists with each bite!

Best Case Scenario

jonk — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 06:11:55 -0000

To me, the best case scenario has nothing to do with the individual teams and matchups, but rather, limiting the exposure of their best players against ours. Since there is nothing we can do to force that, we can hope that luck throws us an Ace of Spades.

Going on the presumption that the final standing will look like this:

Cubs
NL East Winner
NL West Winner
Wild Card

We have the following scenarios:

Phils take East, Brewers take WC, Phils play Brewers.
Phils take East, Mets take WC, Phils play NL West winner.
Phils take WC, Phils play Cubs.

Of those scenarios, which ones work out best for the Phillies? The WC scenario is the only one where we do not have home field advantage (which is less of a concern for the Phillies than the Cubs), but not a desirable proposition. Factor in facing Zambrano and Harden in the first two games and this appears to be the least acceptable.

That basically has us rooting for the Mets or the Brewers. If the Mets win, we face the NL West. If it is LA, the current leader, we face Billingsly and Lowe. If we face Arizona, then it would be Webb and Haren with a little RJ sprinkled in. Looks like LA would be a better choice in terms of starters faced. If the Brewers win, we face Sabathia and Sheet (probably).

So, it seems like LA would be the most desirable of all possibilities in terms of starters faced. While that may, or may not be true, the best case is if we don't have to face one of the top starters in the first or second game. What is an easier rotation to face?

Sabathia
Sheets
Bush
Sabathia
Sheets

Sheets
Bush
Sabathia
Sheets
Bush

The same thing goes with LA. I'd much prefer to face Billingsly once rather than twice. So, the best case is hoping that the Mets and Brewers tie for the wild card. Sabathia is scheduled to pitch on Thursday the 25th against Pittsburgh. If they don't push him back to face the Cubs, then he'd likely start the 1 game playoff against the Mets.

The Dodgers actually have Billingsly scheduled to pitch on the last Sunday. If they are one up on the DBs, then I could see them holding off Billingsly to pitch in the playoff game.

Ths NLCS is slated to start on Wednesday Oct 1st with game 2 on Thursday. Neither pitcher would likely to be ready to pitch on Thursday (well, maybe Sabathia) if they had pitched on Monday. This gives the possibility that you would only face their best pitcher once in the playoffs and their 3rd or even 4th best pitcher an extra time.

I am hoping that the Mets and Brewers tie, we see a CC/Santana game where the Brewers win and then have to come into Philly expecting CC to only pitch in game 3. If the Mets take the WC, I am hoping the Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks in a 1 game playoff with Billingsly pitching just because the DBs have 3 viabale starters compared to the Dodgers (who do have Kuroda though). On a personal level, I'd love to see the Mets make it and then play the Phillies in the NLCS, but I'd much prefer the advantage of missing the other team's best starter and having an easier road to the second round.

Phillies Tidbits

jonk — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 06:55:00 -0000

Entering the last week of the season, I figured I'd try to look at some interesting stats.

Hamels: 220.3 IP

Assuimg Cole makes his next start and pitches 2+ innings, he'll be on pace to have the most innings pitched by a starter in 10 years. Unless that game goes into some deep extras and Cole pitches them all, he won't match Shilling's 268.7 IP in 1998. Yeah, 15 complete games. I don't remember that either. No CY Young votes for him either. As a side note and purely an opinion, I noticed that Tyler Green still happened to be on the team that year and I watched him on the post game show today and he sucked. No offense Tyler, but you were awful. He said that Howard is a legit MVP candidate because the difference between his .247 avg and Pujols avg is all a bunch of empty bloop hits that mean nothing because you are left on base. I mean, COME ON MAN!

Carlos Ruiz: 66 OPS+ (for a "starter") is the lowest since...wait for it...last year. Abe Nunez had an OPS+ of 54 last year in 252 ABs. Nunez had 11 extra base hits in 252 ABs. Yeah, and we made the playoffs.

Phillies: Have 7 guys with double digit HRs and 3 guys with 9 (Jenkins, Coste and Dobbs). If 1 or 2 of those guys top 10, that would be the most players with double digit homeruns since 2004, when Lieby, Thome, Polanco, Bell, Rollins, Burrell, Abreu, Michaels and Utley all did it. (Btw, in 1998, they only had 3 guys get double digit HRs, Brogna, Rolen and Abreu).

Phillies: Currently 20 games over .500. The most the team has been over .500 since 1993 when they peaked at 35 over on Sept 28th. This team has been 2 games under .500. That team was never under. The 2000 team was never over .500 and the 2001 and 2003 team was bever under .500. Both those teams were painful to watch as they were always good, but just never were consistently really good. The 1997 team bottomed out at 47 games under .500.

Offense: Worst OPS+ (103) (tied with 2003) since 2001 when they had a 97. Tomas Perez was 4th on that team in OPS+ at 103.

Pitching: Best ERA+ (at 113) since 1976 (115). The '94 strike team was at 112. Consequently, that gives them the 4th best ERA+ for this franchise since 1920. That 1976 team was built a little differently with 3 starters at 200+ innings and 3 bullpen guys at 90+ innings. 10 guys on the staff the entire year except for 3 innings of 1 game.

Offense: Need just 11 HRs to break their all time mark of 216 set 2 years ago.

Myers: Has recorded his 5th season with double digit wins. Last Phillie to do that was Curt Schilling who also had 5.

Phillies: Last time they made the playoffs in back to back years was 1980 and 1981. Would be nice, right?

Playoff Odds

jonk — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 08:26:44 -0000

Even the most cynical of statistical analysis has to agree that odds are what keep people involved. If your team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, well, then you probably are watching football on Sunday afternoon. Now, how do we get the odds and are the different versions out there really all that, um, different? I don't think it matters as long as the basic rules are the same.

Baseball Prospectus updates their odds report every morning, so, I may add an update to this post because the Met's loss has not been factored in.

The basic Post Season Odds are here with an explanation:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Phillies 34.02 Div 25.309 WC 59.33 PO 28.04 1D 31.54 7D

The Phils had a 34% chance of winning the division, a 25% chance at the WC and a 60% chance of making the playoffs. Sunday increased our odds of making the playoffs by 28%, quite a huge jump (it is obvious why). They have increased their odds by 31.5% over the last 7 days. I'd suspect with the Mets loss, our odds of the division will increase to around 42% and our overall odds to around 66% (I am not sure how WC odds canabalize division odds and vice versa).

ELO (Electric Lights Orchestra) odds love us more:

Phillies 38.16 Div 29.345 WC 67.51 PO

PECOTA, not so much (FU PECOTA YOU LOSER):

Phillies 33.40 Div 26.25 WC 59.64 PO

All much better than a week ago, we'll all agree on.

Looking at just the remaining schedules of the Mets, Phils and Brewers, we get this:

Mets: 3 @ Was, 3 @ Atl, 4 vs Chi and 3 vs FLA

Brewers: 3 @ Chi, 3 @ Cin, 3 vs Pit, 3 vs Chi

Phils: 3 @ Atl, 3 @ Fla, 3 vs Atl, 3 vs Was

Ignoring the possibility that the Cubs mail it in when they win the division, the winning percentages for opponents look like this:

Mets: .497 OPP Win %
Brewers: .523 OPP Win %
Phillies: .4478 OPP Win %

Thanks to the Cubs (as WholeCamels points out), the Phillies have a significant edge in their opponents for the rest of the year. The upconing series is interesting for the Brewers and the Cubs. If the Cubs sweep the Brewers (and lets presume that Houston and Stl are out of it) then the Phils probably have an easy walk to the Wild Card. If the Brewers somehow sweep the Cubs, then the Cubs probably have something to play for when they face the Mets and maybe the Brewers at the end of the year.

I am by no means stating that I want the Brewers to sweep the Cubs to have the Cubs worry a bit and then have to play hard against the Mets. I'd rather the Cubs just knock them out.

The Phillies have 83 wins. I think 90 will get them at least a tie for the division or the WC. That means going 7-5 over the last 12 against weak divisional foes. 8-4 will probably mean that they are almost assured of tie.

Of course, we could hope for the Mets and the Brewers to win out and the Cubs to get swepts by the Cardinals and the Phils win 9 games to beat out the Cubs for the WC spot, but that would be as ridiculous as making up 7 games in the last 2 weeks of the season.

Brett Myers III

jonk — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:19:01 -0000

Call me crazy, but this is one of the images I get in my head when I think of Brett Myers this year...

This was the epic battle performed while he was in the minors. Good versus evil (though, in Myer's case, it may be evil vs slightly more evil). Either way, it looks like mild mannered Brett Myers has fought off his demons and returned to us. Sure, he ain't this good, but you know, I spent a lot of time saying he wasn't that bad earlier, so, I guess it evens out.

From March 31st to June 27th, here is Myer's line:

3 W 9 L 101.2 IP 115 H 70 R 44 BB 24 HR 88 K 5.84 ERA 45 Avg GS .907 OPSA

From July 23rd to August 25th, here is Myer's line:

4 W 1 L 48.2 IP 39 H 10 R 13 BB 38 K 2 HR 1.66 ERA 64 Avg GS .587 OPSA

What can we make of this? I am sure MattS has some sort of detailed analysis of GB/FB and ratios and stuff, but has Brett been a different person/pitcher lately? I am not sure what can really be determined by this or if it is just luck or normalization of some stats. But the difference is striking and I don't know if it has anything to do with his demotion, but that turns out to be the spot of the split.

The 3 basic rate stats look like this:

Pre demotion: 3.9 BB/9 2.16 HR/9 7.80 K/9
Post demotion: 2.41 BB/9 0.37 HR/9 7.38 K/9

So, is walks per 9 have dropped by 1.5, his HRs per 9 have dropped bu almost 2 and his strikeouts have actually dropped by about .5 per 9. The biggest impact on his ERA is clearly the homeruns. You are talking about at least 2 runs a game just based on homeruns, ignoring people on base (though there is a stat (and I am doing this off of memory) that Myers has the fewest 3 and 4 run homeruns in MLB of all players with over 100 HRs given up).

Is this sustainable?

Career: 3.20 BB/9 1.31 HR/9 7.54 K/9

Looks like there is a nice middle ground for him to settle into. It seems that the decrease in walks and strikeouts result in more balls in play. Those tended to be flyballs for the old Brett, but the new Brett is seeing a ton more groundballs.

Pre: 1.27 GB/FB
Post: 1.925 GB/FB

I think the primary reason for this is his use of his offspeed pitches. He seems to be throwing his curveball (and for strikes) a lot more. He had games earlier in the year where it looked like he was 80-85% fastballs, and players were teeing off of them. I don't know if this is just teams not having a new scouting report on Myers or just a better approach for him. It will be an interesting last month of the season to see how this ends up.

Thank you small sample size...

jonk — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 09:05:23 -0000

We can debate what is a good sample and what is not, but I think everyone in the world can agree that 1 AB is not (unless it is a Derek Jeter post season AB). So often in my life does the small sample size end up biting me in the ass. The odds are usually against it working out if you need a very successful play since very successful plays happen so rarely, but we had one, and it might be what ends up being the catalyst to putting the Phils in the playoffs.

What was this AB you may be wondering (or not)?

Friday, August 22nd, Bottom of the 4th inning, 1 on and 2 outs.

R Howard homered to left, P Burrell scored.

The homerun that may have saved the season.

Sounds ridiculous to proclaim that one AB as the possible saviour to the season. Right? Well, let's think about what this AB did (and it did a lot).

The Phils' offense had been in a slump. We had heard all the numbers of how poorly they have been playing since the break. So, Charlie, finally giving in after sitting on his thumb, puts Pat third between Utley and Howard and moves Utley into the 2 hole. He had done this before, notably, at the end of last year, but then went back to the Utley, Howard, Burrell 3-4-5.

What this does is not only give our 3 best hitters a shot to have an extra AB per game, but also splits Howard and Utley so that Pat can actually have a chance to hit against a late inning lefty. While a lot of people tout that lineups don't matter much, it is often expoused from simulators who take averages and possibly don't take into account micromanaging that can have a significant effect at the end of a game. Pat splitting Howard and Utley may mean that either Pat faces a lefty in a high leverage situation or that Utley or Howard may not face a lefty (which is good for Howard).

So, how did this all come from 1 AB? Well, I kinda cheated since it is really 2 ABs that did it, but the Howard homer sealed it. With 2 outs and nobody on, Pat did what Pat does and got on base via the walk. A beutiful 10 pitch AB against Maddux who was cruising and averaging 0.7 pitches per plate appearance before that AB. Up stepped the big dog and took 2 balls and then sent the 3rd pitch (a strike) into the left field seats. A 2-run shot that put the Phils ahead enroute to a 8-1 victory. The next day they decided to keep the same lineup and blasted LA again 9-2.

What this means is that Pat is likely to bat third for the significant future and Howard behind him. Additionally, Werth will likely bat behind Howard in the 5 hole and then Victorino switch hitting and then Feliz or Dobbs batting 7th. This move gives the Phillies a ton of flexability in the late innings and strengthens the bottom half of the lineup with Victorino down there. Personally, I'd switch Vic and Rollins, but I think that they probably project to similiar numbers the rest of the year so it won't be that big of a deal.

We wouldn't be here if Howard struck out. He whiffs, Pat get stranded, the Phils get shutout and then he leads off with Ruiz the next day and all hell breaks loose. Ok, maybe not that extreme, but that homer lead the way to the Phils scoring 17 runs over the best pitching staff in the NL over the last 2 days. Charlie loves himself some small sample sizes and this time it works out in our favor as this is certainly the best move for the lineup. Let's hope he keeps it this way.

FU BOOOOOO!!

jonk — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:55:33 -0000

While driving this evening, I was having my ears bled out by listening to WIP who always caters to the lowest common demoninator fan and justifying it by calling it passion. The host, whom I won't bother mentioning, was taking calls and defending the town for booing Jimmy Rollins. One guy called up and said that he booed Burrell relentlessly for the past 2 years (really?) but voted for him as an All-Star cause he finally is playing like he should, also booed Jimmy during all 4 At Bats and will continue to do so until Jimmy apologizes to [him] via the media.

Are you freakin kidding me?

There seems to be an obvious disconnect with the fans (and radio people) who advocate booing. On one hand, they say it should invigorate the player, showing him that he isn't playing up to snuff (and an argument was seriously made that it pushed the Phillies to the 80 WS). On the other hand, it was argued, that the players should have thick skin and not let it bother them to the point that they lash out in the media. Well, which is it? It appears that they want to have their cake and eat it too. The players SHOULD listen, but only if it makes them "play" harder. The most ridiculous comment was that the fans of this city just want to see effort. Um, excuse me? WTF? Seriously?

I could easily branch off onto a tanget talking about how pathetic the sports talk is in this city and how the hosts are all just a bunch of charicatures of themselves and cater to enraging people rather than actually being logical and reasonable about sports. However, I really am going to get to the crux of booing. What is the point of it and what is it REALLY supposed to do?

Sorry for all of you religious people here, but I am going to use a religious analogy here that I think is apt. The idea of booing is equivalent to hell. We can draw on the concept that a player doesn't want to get booed like a person doesn't want to piss off the almighty lord and end up visiting Satan in the hot underworld. Thus, the deterent is fear. Fear of booing is equivalent to the fear of god. I believe one of the lost gospels commented on playing hard, running into walls and taking the extra base as the means to a happy afterlife (by happy afterlife, I mean being able to eat at Chickie's and Petes without some drunk asshole calling your mom a whore). So, to sum up, fear of getting booed should prompt players to play better like the fear of god should keep us from stealing, or killing, or molesting small animals.

But, does the means justify the ends? Are we doing it for the right reason? Shouldn't we not steal or murder because it is something we don't want done to us rather than because it would piss god off? Likewise, shouldn't a player play to a high level because it is expected (and will rake in the cash) rather than to avoid the boos? I mean, I am not discrediting the fan (or god's) role in this, but rather, what should true motivation be? The problem is that too much justification is made of booing; they are professionals; they make a ton of money; they deserve it; we deserve a winner. Blah, blah, blah.

Is this how you would motivate your child? Little Stevie brings home a test with a grade of a C-. Do you then tell Stevie that he sucks. That he isn't worth the money you put in for him. That he shouldn't be in the family and you are going to bring in another kid to take his spot?

But they aren't children? They are professionals at the workplace?

Is this how you want to be motivated at work? You miss an email telling you that a deadline was at 4pm and it is already 5pm. Your boss comes over and then tells you how much better Anderson is than you. That he should have given Anderson the report to work on or that you suck and you can never do anything right. That they are now looking for a replacement for you.

Sports have been ingrained into our society that we take it very personally. I tend to think that it is an outlet for people who need to vent other frustrations. Booing Burrell is really telling your wife you are pissed off at her for not performing oral activities the night before. Telling Rollins he is a prima dona is really you telling the mechanic that $1200 bucks for a new transmission is ridiculous and that you are going to shove that wrench up his ass.

However, one of traits that separates humans from animals is the ability for us to manage our emotions. Kick a dog and he gets pissed and bites you. Stick a needle in a lion's eye and he'll likely maul you. Tell an elephant he is fat and he'll sit on you.

Humans are a step up from that. We have the ability to determine where the frustration comes from. Pat Burrell strikes out with the bases loaded and the Phils down by a run, we boo. But what are we booing? Are we mad at Pat? Maybe, but more likely frustrated at him. We are really mad at the situation. The possibility of tying the game or taking the lead was there and due to the statistical odds showing their face, we didn't do it. So, we boo and call Pat a loser or something else I don't want to put here.

But in reality, we are placing blame on those who really don't deserve it. Pat tried to hit the ball. He wanted to hit the ball. He put every effort in and he failed. Failure is a part of sports. It is the failure part we are booing and it reality, it is a silly concept. Boo! Screw you statistical odds! Eff you regression to the mean! I hope you die, standard deviation! All we get out of this is a bunch of bad vibes and unhappy players.

So, when you get all worked up and ready to boo Jimmy for correctly stating that Philly fans suck (as evidenced by the home winning percentage differential being the worst in MLB), think about what you are actually booing. You are booing a rich dude, who gets paid to play a sport in a town that he has no real connection to because you paid money to watch a sport being played that has no real impact on your life or anything that goes on in the world around you. Maybe you should be booing yourself for putting so much emotion and money into something that is likely to let you down and has no tangible effect on your life. Or better yet, instead of booing, just relax, shrug it off and say, "Go get next time, pal!" I don't know if I have ever heard that at one of the millions of game I have been to, but I am sure Jimmy or Pat or Ryan would appreciate it. And I am sure your blood pressure would appreciate it too.

Phillies DIPS

jonk — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:54:54 -0000

While responding to dajafi's Kendrick post, I decided to look at the DIPS ERAs for all the Phillies pitchers. For those unaware, DIPS stands for defense independent pitching stats and was coined by Voros McCracken at the tail end of last century...so get read up. While not the perfect of all stats, it certainly gives an idea what a pitcher would be doing if luck had no role whatsoever.

Player Name ERA DIPS DIPS%

JC Romero 2.27 4.51 1.99

Chad Durbin 2.15 3.20 1.49

Brad Lidge 2.10 2.61 1.24

Jamie Moyer 3.64 4.28 1.18

Ryan Madson 3.16 3.71 1.17

Cole Hamels 3.22 3.68 1.14

Clay Condrey 3.60 4.03 1.12

Kyle Kendrick 5.01 5.15 1.03

Brett Myers 5.02 5.16 1.03

Adam Eaton 5.80 5.15 0.89

These numbers don't bode well for the Phils. Even Myers and Kendrick are showing to be a little lucky. Romero is living up to his initials. I would have thought Moyer to be a bit higher though.

Let's hope that the luck continues to flow.

Those damn expectations...

jonk — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:24:04 -0000

They will kill you. We certainly have developed a feeling of deservedness. What is good can always be better. The old version is always better than the new one. How quickly we forget what it was like when we had the old version. If only I could break the space-time continuum and have people taste test last year's Phillies with this year's and really see what they'd prefer. 2 less wins and in third place or 2 more wins and in first place? It seems obvious, but, you'd not think that listening to a lot of grumbling around town. It took the Atlanta Braves like 6 or 7 years to get sick of making the playoffs. We aren't even through half of the second season...

Whiner: The Phils aren't as good as last year! Their offense sucks and their pitching is lucky!

Truth:

Last year:

Phils Scored: 5.51 runs/game (OPS+ 111)
Phils Allowed: 5.07 runs/game (ERA+ 97)

This year:

Phils Score: 4.89 runs/game (OPS+ 103)
Phils Allow: 4.27 runs/game (ERA+ 113)

So, we have a net loss of 8 points in OPS+ and a net gain of 16 points in ERA+. Our offense has obviously dropped off from last year while our pitching has made up for it two-fold. The easiest complaint is that the pitching is playing over it's head and isn't this good. Can we not make the same comment about the offense?

Whiner: The Phils playing down to their opponents. They can never beat scrubs from bad teams!

Truth: Like every team in the league doesn't do the same thing. The Phillies have losing records against 7 clubs:

BOS            1   2
FLA             5   7
LAA             0   3
NYM            4   9
OAK            1   2
TEX             1   2
TOR            1   2

Those teams have an average winning percentage of .533. Only Oakland had a losing record and that is because they traded off a few of their best players.

Whiner: But the Phils are so inconsistent in their offense. They have been shutout 8 times. Look at the Mets, just 4 shutouts!

Truth: Many good teams are inconsistent.

Marlins: 7 shutouts
Cubs: 6 shutouts
Braves: 11 shutouts
Red Sox: 6 shutouts
Detroit: 11 shutouts
White Sox: 9 shutouts
Yankees: 7 shutouts

Look, I'd love for them to be shutout less, but would 1 or 2 runs really do it for you?

Whiner: But they hit into so many double plays!

Truth: Before last night's debacle...

Phillies: 77 GIDPs. 25th in MLB and just 1 more than the 28th team.

Whiner: But they have a #1 and 4 #5s!

Truth: Phils have a #1, a #2 and possibly 3 #3s.

Hamels: 133 ERA+
Moyer: 118 ERA+
Kendrick: 102 ERA+
Myers: 87 ERA+
Blanton: 136 ERA+ (limited time)

Myers has looked very good since coming back up and Blanton is somehow getting it done. I think most teams wish they saw these numbers next to their starter's names.

Whiner: But this team has no heart like last year's team. With Rowand, we'd be like 10 games up and suckling on the teat of division champions already!

Truth: Mr. Grit took his flying facesmash act to where the money was. If he wanted to win so badly he would have stayed in Philly. We can see how good his BBQs are doing for the Giants. Also, his line is very mediocre.

2007: .309 .374 .515 OPS+ 123
2008: .281 .352 .432 OPS+ 106

That is 28 points in BA, 22 points in OBP, 83 points in SLG and 17 points in OPS+.

Whiner: But this team is so unlikable! Whaa whaa whaa.

Truth: You are just looking for a reason to hate. Last year's team wasn't any better than this one. You only loved them on the final day of the season; they were frustrating as all hell up until that point (ok, maybe Hamels' beaut on the Friday before). The Phillies are in first place on August 11th and have been there for 63 days this season. Last year's Phillies were in first for 2 days.

Bottom Line: Of the three teams in the NL East, the Phillies have played the best so far. They have the best run differential AND record, which means that as inconsistent as they have been, the Mets and Marlins have been even MORE inconsistent (lets not forget that the Marlins lost a game where they scored 17 runs). Interestingly enough, the Phillies are 7 games better than the Mets against the rest of the league and 4.5 games better than the Marlins against the rest of the league. The Mets and Marlins are not better than the Phillies, so, we can expect them to play better against those two teams.

Take a freakin pill you effin whiners. Your team is LEADING the NL East by 2 games, has the SECOND best run differential in the NL, has the THIRD best record and has a solid 60% chance of making the playoffs. All people do around here is complain. Maybe we have found out the reason why the Phillies have the WORST homefield advantage in all of baseball since 2004. The fans here can really suck.