
joshmassey
Jul 18, 2008 Jan 20, 2012 43 169
website: http://martiansattackingindianapolis.blogspot.com
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NFL Playoffs Picks, Aiding And A'Betting: Seahawks-Bears, Jets-Patriots
On a day like this one, I'd like to pretend football doesn't exist, that last night's misery was just a bad dream or a hallucination caused by refried beans and stale beer. Here come two games staring us in the face, though - one almost impossible to get excited about, and one with a storyline that has been beaten to death. It seems to be a day that has to be driven by gambling, because financial investment in one of these four teams is far preferable to an actual emotional one.
The picks:
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Seattle @ Chicago (-10). Suddenly, this is a battle to host the NFC Championship Game - just like everybody predicted, right? Two exceedingly average teams will meet this afternoon, and this game probably relies on a single player more than any of the other playoff match-ups. If Jay Cutler can keep his passes out of Seattle hands, it should be enough for a Chicago victory. However, as anybody who's watched Cutler over these past 16 months knows, that ain't a sure thing
And expect a closer game than the line suggests. Only four of Chicago's 11 wins were by more than double digits, with two coming against Minnesota and one Carolina - so those shouldn't even count. PICK: Seattle
Sunday, 4:30 p.m.
NY Jets @ New England (-10). Rex Ryan's most amazing achievement of this season? He actually has me rooting for the Patriots. A few months ago, during New York's run on "Hard Knocks," I sorta dug Ryan's brash, talky approach to his job - but man, that welcome wore the hell out. With every blowhard sentence out of his mouth, my New England fandom amps up a notch, and making me want to see Tom Brady win is Ryan's worst sin yet.
Oh, and Wes Welker is probably my new favorite non-Falcon - his multiple, straight-faced jabs at Ryan in this press conference is the stuff of instant legend. PICK: New England
Yesterday: 1-1
Last Week: 1-3-0
Regular Season Total: 133-116-7
Lines via SBNation.
NFL Playoffs Picks, Aiding And A'Betting: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Eagles
Oh, what a difference a day makes. Upsets reigned supreme in the Saturday games, leaving Atlanta Falcons fans in the perhaps uncomfortable position of being Vick Fans #1. If Philadelphia wins tonight, Seattle heads to the Georgia Dome on Saturday and the NFC Championship path is seemingly easier. If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers emerge victorious, they're Atlanta-bound - and the road is that much rockier. So swallow your pride, Atlanta fans, and root for #7 like it's 2004 up in here.
The picks:
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Baltimore (-3) @ Kansas City. The "better team" went down in both Saturday games, so my logic here isn't completely sound. But dammit, the Ravens are superior to the Chiefs at almost every position, and I have to believe the talent gap is wide enough to overcome KC's home field advantage. Of course, I could have typed the exact same words yesterday regarding New Orleans and Seattle.
The Ravens haven't actually lost a road game since their early November match-up in Atlanta, and that's my deciding factor here. Joe Flacco and the Ravens D should lead their team to a double-digit victory. PICK: Baltimore
Sunday, 4:30 p.m.
Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2). This is by far the hardest call of the weekend, which should send up warning flags considering most "experts" are 0-2 in the playoffs (I am also 0-2, but would never use the "expert" label outside of Die Hard and the collected works of Sylvester Stallone). There is nothing that would shock me here - a close game, a Packers blow-out, an Eagles runaway. So in the interest of putting something down, I'll side with the home team, pretty much because that's the way I'll be cheering.
And if you haven't heard, gambling based on "who you want to win" is generally a bad idea, so my advice: stay away. I just don't freaking know. PICK: Philadelphia
Playoffs: 0-2
Regular Season Total: 133-116-7
Lines via SBNation.
NFL Playoffs Picks, Aiding And A'Betting: Saints-Seahawks, Jets-Colts
Oh my goodness, the NFL postseason is here. To properly express my excitement, I could use flowery language to impart my emotions, or I could simply type the letter E in caps about 5,000 times. So now, I summarily bequeath to you, my hearty readers, EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE ... (Ok, you get the idea.)
The picks:
Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
New Orleans (-10) @ Seattle. Trust me, Falcons fans - I've looked at this game from every angle trying to find a Seahawks victory hiding within. The Saints are going cross-country! Seattle has a legendary home crowd! It's supposed to rain, which should hamper Drew Brees! New Orleans can't run the ball without Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory! People from Louisiana always get thrown off by modern conveniences like electricity and toilets you don't have to dig!
Just as I'm getting my hopes up, though, I remember - oh right, the Seahawks. Matt Hasselbeck. A team that recently gave up 40 points to SAN FRANCISCO. No amount of travel, jeers, precipitation or running back incontinence will throw off the Saints faithful. Silver lining, though: should N'awlins end up in the Georgia Dome next week, we should have an open-air stadium by the end of the game. "Epic" just seems too small of a word. PICK: New Orleans
Saturday, 8 p.m.
NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2 1/2). It was my hope to enjoy a postseason without looking at Mark Sanchez's To Catch a Predator-ish attempts at facial hair, but here we sit. New York's season has run the gamut from "Hard Knocks" to contract disputes to blustery Rex Ryan press conferences to - ick - foot fetish videos.
What truly jumps out at me, though, is the end of the Jets season - three losses in the last five games, including two in which they couldn't even manage seven points. So they're going to Indy relying on their defense, and that's a bad gameplan - Peyton Manning has been plugged into a wall socket all week, and his electrochemical cyborg half-cells are at full charge. PICK: Indianapolis
Sunday's picks coming soon.
Last Week: 5-11-0
Regular Season Total: 133-116-7
Lines via SBNation.
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The divisional playoffs commence on Saturday afternoon, and by tomorrow night the country will know the NFC and AFC championship game match-ups. Gambling opportunities are rapidly dwindling, of course, so it's time to flaunt your season winnings or make a (perhaps ill-advised) push to climb back even.
Of course, on a weekend like this, it's best to treat gambling as the cherry on top of an awesome custard, jam and meat trifle. Not only do Atlanta fans get to see their team travel to the NFC Championship Game, but they can make the money to buy a ticket! It's the power of positive thinking, people, and positive thinking (along with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Brent Grimes, Curtis Lofton, etc.) will make your Saturday night a happy and profitable one.
The picks:
Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3). There's absolutely nothing about these teams that seems mismatched: gutty QBs, oft-muffled but potentially explosive running games, receivers who don't leap to mind but probably should, relentless and fracture-producing defenses. So when it doubt, go with the team with these three advantages:
1) A bye week. No team needed a bye as much as the hobbling Steelers, and the week off allowed them to heal up and catch their breath.
2) Home-field advantage. Atlanta may have the stats, Kansas City may have the history, but Pittsburgh probably offers the league's best pure home support.
3) Experience. The Ravens have had some playoff success in recent years, but it doesn't compare to Pittsburgh's. Ben Roethlisberger has done some good postseason things, to say the least - and a lot of his supporting cast has been with him all along. PICK: Pittsburgh
Saturday, 8 p.m.
Green Bay @ Atlanta (-1 1/2). Falcons fans are suddenly pulling their hair out over this one, as a nation of "experts" and polls back the pea soup-colored opponent from the north. As a life-long Atlanta fan, I get the stress - leave it to 'em to win the first seed, and still end up getting screwed (Green Bay coming here, two-seed Chicago hosting 8-9 Seattle). Sure, the Packers almost beat Atlanta earlier in the season, and are now supposedly coming back with a resurgent running game. I understand the freak-out, I really do. I just ain't takin' part.
Two words make me confident about Atlanta's success: James Starks. Starks is the previously unknown Green Bay running back who broke out last week, to the tune of 123 yards against Philadelphia. In almost everything you read about this weekend's game, he's going to be Green Bay's savior - the missing piece they've needed all along. STOP THAT. Yes, he had a good game against Philly's 15th-ranked rushing defense. But let's not forget there's a reason we hadn't heard of him until 2011. There's a reason he spent multiple weeks this year on the "inactive" list. And it's this guy, who rushed six times for eight yards against Detroit, who's going to break Atlanta's seemingly unflappable home field advantage? Back off with that nonsense. Not only do I call a Falcons victory, but Starks doesn't go over 40 yards. PICK: Atlanta
Sunday's picks coming soon.
Last Week: 1-3-0
Regular Season Total: 133-116-7
Lines via SBNation.