Just re-launched Texas Farm Review for 2012. Only $10 for the entire season if you subscribe before March 1st. Yearly subs after I leave for Spring Training will be $14.95 for the entire 2012 season. Lots of heavy-lifting (content wise) during those weeks on the back fields of Surprise, with patches of intensity throughout the season, specifically during the AZL and Fall Instructional League campaigns. Hope to have you on-board for 2012!

Link to Top 25: Click Me

Preview:

1. SS Jurickson Profar

2. LHP Martin Perez

3. 3B Mike Olt

4. RHP Neil Ramirez

5. 1B Ronald Guzman

Link

While certainly a top 10 system in all of baseball, the Rangers can no longer brag that their collection of talent resides in the rarified air of the top tier. Thanks in part to the graduations of Neftali Feliz and Mitch Moreland, the trading of Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, Michael Main, and Omar Poveda, the rapid decline of former prospects Kasey Kiker and Danny Gutierrez, and the developmental hurdles encountered by top prospects Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, the overall ranking of the Texas farm has taken a hit, and the makeup of the system has shifted (somewhat) from high-impact talent to depth. That’s not to say that the minor league system is void of high-impact talent; rather, the farm’s value is more directly tied to depth than in previous years.

Let’s take a closer look at what the Rangers currently have on the farm and assign a basic trade value to each prospect (trade value based on a big ticket return like Greinke, Johnson, etc). I’ll group the players into tiers based on their present value, and give you some brief scouting breakdowns like potential impact, attributes, and red flags. After we’ve established value for the farm, I’ll make a case for why trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense for the Rangers at the present, and how that could affect the shape of the system in the future.

Tier #1

LHP Martin Perez

Potential impact: Quality #2 starter on a first-division team.

Present value: Top 25 prospect in baseball; primary piece in a trade.

Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with compact delivery, above-average command projection, and three pitches with plus potential. At present, his fastball can sit 92-96 with good lefty movement; his curveball flashes plus at times, and projects to be a 60 grade pitch at maturity; his changeup plays well off his fastball with great shape and tumble, and projects to be above-average with a chance to be well-above-average at peak.

Potential red flags: Lacks physical projection; struggled with command and consistency in 2010; saw fastball velocity ebb and flow during season; the unknowns associated with present age.

Some links:

David Brown Interviews BA's Ben Badler: Link

Keith Law: Link 

BA: Link

DPL: Link 

Because of the abstract nature of scouting 15/16/17 year-olds, the reports can and will vary a great deal. For example: I've heard crazy hyperbole about Mexican RHP Luis Heredia, with some people calling him the best Mexican arm in recent memory, with Ynoa-like projection. Others, like Klaw, mention that his body might have some question marks and his secondary stuff is fringy. At this point, its best to look at these reports on the surface and remember that player development is the name of the game.

Another thing to keep in mind: If the Rangers don't make a splash by signing Peguero (another player with conflicting scouting reports), or another top 25 name, it doesn't mean they won't be able to acquire projectable talent as the year progresses. In a weaker class, at least on paper, the names attached to the team might not be familiar to the average fan, or even the die-hard fan, but finding the hidden gem is the most exciting aspect of amateur scouting, and the Rangers have one of the most competent international departments in baseball. So rest assured, that even with limited resources, Daly and Co. should be able to find interesting talent to add to the stockpile. 

Redundancy Police: Posting this here to keep the party going for a few days. 

http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/1/10/kevin-goldstein-prospect-qa.html

KG's rankings

Q: Is Tanner Scheppers and dominant reliever or a top of the rotation starter and when will he see Arlington?

Goldstein: If it were up to me, I would start him in Triple A and get him to the majors as fast as possible, as a reliever. Here’s the thing, Tanner Scheppers is pitching on borrowed time.  Tanner Scheppers is going to break. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.  HE IS GOING TO BREAK! Every time he throws a pitch in the minors, you are taking a risk. You are wasting your time. You have to be able to reap major league benefits from this talent as soon as possible because at some point between now and the time he is 30 (if not sooner than that), he is going to break. I would fast-track him and get him into the bullpen as soon as possible.

Q: What makes Martin Perez the top LHP in the minors?

Goldstein: The combination of where he is right now (with his age), what he has done so far, and where he can be. This is not the first left-handed teenager to dominate a full-season league and then hold his own at a higher level. It’s just a matter of how he is doing it. He’s not just throwing fastballs by people, he is showing a mature repertoire. As you know, he has very real secondary pitches and a good idea how to pitch. There is so much more to come out of this kid that it’s scary. The Johan Santana comps are unavoidable at this point, and frankly a bit lazy, but you can understand them at least: he’s left-handed; he’s Venezuelan; he has a helluva change-up; he has a plus fastball. It’s so rare to find a pitcher his age who is that complete a product. He just needs to refine. He doesn’t have holes in his game. To have that at such a young age is very rare.

Beyond the questionable timing involved with the Saturday publication of a lascivious series of photographs portraying Josh Hamilton in a less than favorable light, there is one more outstanding issue that, in my mind, still merits attention -- the Johnny Narron angle. Less than 24 hours before the story erupted onto the national media scene and the Rangers hastily organized an early-afternoon press conference, Narron, the Texas Rangers' second-year special assignment coach and aptly described "baseball mentor, personal confidant and chaperone" to Hamilton, dismissed the photographs' validity while telling Deadspin.com that he "[didn't] put a lot of credence in someone saying they have photographs of Josh in a bar" and indicating that Hamilton had not, to his knowledge, suffered any sort of lapse in his sobriety: "I'm sure, in the depths of his drug addiction, he was in a lot of bars," Narron goes on, suggesting that the photos predate Hamilton's recovery or perhaps were doctored. "He was in and out of bars, crackhouses, everything. There are probably photographs of him in all kinds of places."

In my opinion, the Rangers system is made up of several tiers. The first tier houses prospects like Justin Smoak and Martin Perez, guys that usually find their way onto most Top 100 lists. The second tier is usually for guys who don't quite have first tier ceilings, but still possess immense skill sets and are often mentioned as having major league futures.

The third tier is a long queue of interchangeable prospects that could swap spots depending on a hot streak, promotion, or just gut feeling. These players could evolve into a higher echelon of prospect or they could eventually fade into the attritional fog. Fourth tier players usually have major question marks surrounding their prospect status, either as a result of a limited professional record, age (young/old), and/or skill set translations. 

A few samples:

 1. 1B Justin Smoak

Justin Smoak is clearly one of the best position prospects in all of baseball. His combination of patience and power potential could make him a devastating hitter in the middle of a major league line-up. His defense has been a bit of a disappointment so far, but given his work ethic, he should eventually be an above-average defensive first-baseman at the highest level.

6. RHP Wilmer Font

Link

Q: In your opinion, who are the most overrated and underrated prospects in the Rangers' system? Why?

Keith Law: I don't know that there's anyone who's overrated in the Rangers' system; I suppose you could say [Taylor] Teagarden, who didn't hit at all this past year and whose arm problems might be a permanent issue. By my count, he only caught on back-to-back days 31 times all season, across all three levels.

Underrated ... [Michael] Main, certainly. [Kasey] Kiker. [Robbie] Ross. All three are dinged because they're not tall, but Main's a great athlete with huge stuff, and all three are excellent competitiors with Kiker and Ross showing good feel for pitching.

Q:You rank Martin Perez as the number 13 pitching prospect in all of baseball. The buzz on Perez among Rangers fans is heavy, but you're the first to key on him to that extent nationally. You suggested he has a chance to "shoot up the system" -- at age 17, what sort of track would you put him on if you were calling the shots?

Keith Law: It really depends on his performance -- I doubt anyone suggested last winter that [Neftali] Feliz should finish 2008 in AA, but his performance clearly merited it. Perez should start 2009 in Low-A [Hickory], and if he's dominating, there's merit in skipping him over the [High-A] California League, especially if he's showing great command.

 

Link

Kasey Kiker on throwing off the mound at RBIA:

Let me try to explain this. It was a great feeling. My spikes really dug in the dirt. It was weird because I would throw all of my pitches and I would look down and there wouldn't be a hole. I'm not used to that. I'm used to something being wrong. I'm usually looking for something to be wrong like a rock or a huge hole. I looked down and it was like I had just started. It was perfect.

Michael Main on new Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux:

 I thought he was a great guy. He was really funny and he told a lot of jokes. Very personable guy. I know that I'm a young guy and not really close to the big leagues, but I felt like I could talk to him about things. He is a really good fit for the organization.

Link:

Q: What was it like playing in the Unites States, separated from everything that was familiar to you? 

Perez: Its not easy if you don't know the language. If you come from Venezuela, like me, you have to get used to how difficult it can be here in the States. You are alone and bored, but that's what you have to do if you are going to be here for years without family, without friends, without anyone. It is hard, but it's worth it.

Q: How do you deal with that isolation at such a young age?

Perez: I left my house at the age of fifteen and I am the youngest of my family, so I felt really alone. Little by little you realize that without your family around you, you have to develop another kind of attitude. You have to focus on other things. But it's something you have to work at little by little, to get used to being alone.

Link

Q: What was it like playing in the Unites States, separated from everything that was familiar to you? 

Perez: Its not easy if you don't know the language. If you come from Venezuela, like me, you have to get used to how difficult it can be here in the States. You are alone and bored, but that's what you have to do if you are going to be here for years without family, without friends, without anyone. It is hard, but it's worth it.

Link

Over the past nine days I profiled the prospects that I believe have a chance to take a big step forward in 2009. Some on the list will no doubt blossom into top prospects in our system, while others will inevitably take a step back in their development.

The beautiful thing about following prospects is that it allows for the opportunity to witness the emergence of hope. Last season that hope came in the form of the meteoric rises of Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, but also the less-heralded climbs of prospects such as Mitch Moreland and Tim Murphy. 

My Nine in '09:

• Matt West
• Miguel De Los Santos
• Clark Murphy
• Geuris Grullon
• Matt Thompson 
• Kennil Gomez 
• Jacob Brigham
• Cristian Santana
• Evan Reed

Updated link

Esteemed Baseball Prospectus author Kevin Goldstein, widely regarded as one of the foremost experts in the field of prospect evaluation, was generous enough to devote some of his valuable time to answering reader-submitted questions pertaining to the Texas Rangers' electric minor league system late last week.

Read on for Goldstein's takes on Engel Beltre and Michael Main, as well as his sleeper breakout candidate for '09. His answer is going to surprise you. 

Goldstein on whether or not Engel Beltre's ugly K/BB ratio will spell doomsday for him as a prospect: 

Strikeouts to walks are not in the tools. They are not tools. He's a five-tool prospect. [Greg] Golson is a five-tool prospect. The problem is that [Beltre] has such a bad approach. It's a huge red flag. Beltre will swing at anything. There is no question about it. It's going to have to get refined or he's going to turn into Golson. But if he has one thing on his side, it's time. He was just so young in '08, playing in full-season ball, and he clearly belonged on a talent level. He's never going to be Rickey Henderson and draw 100 walks a year, but obviously he needs to become more selective or it's going to be a problem.

Link

Esteemed Baseball Prospectus author Kevin Goldstein, who is widely regarded as one of the foremost experts in the field of prospect evaluation, generously devoted some of his valuable time to answering reader-submitted questions pertaining to the Texas Rangers' electric minor league system earlier this week.

Goldstein on Elvis Andrus:

I'm a guy who just isn't an Andrus believer, and there's a reason for that. Offensively, he's a guy without secondary skills. He doesn't work the count very well and he doesn't have any power. He's a very good defensive shortstop, but he's not a crazy great defensive shortstop; he's not a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, he's a really good shortstop.  I feel the guy is going to hit .280 or .290 and steal some bases, but at the same time he's going to draw 30 walks and hit four home runs for you. He's an everyday shortstop that is going to hit 7th for you. That's not an All-Star, that's a regular shortstop. I mean, what has he really done? He's not just going to find it. It's not there to find.

Link

Q: Are you cocky, confident, or a combination of the two? 

Beavan: Every professional athlete is cocky in his or her own way. That's what makes you good. Whether it's cocky as far as showing people in body language, or the quiet cocky, I think everybody is some sort of cocky. I'd say I'm more confident than anything. Back in high school I'd tell you that I was definitely cocky, but now I've been through a year and a half of professional baseball, with instructs and stuff, and it brings you back down to earth and humbles you and makes you realize that you aren't the only good athlete out there -- that you are going to have to work just as hard, if not double the effort of the other guys, if you want to be on that stage.

Question: Assume that Beavan's velo is already back in the 92-95 range. Does that have influence on where you would rank him on a prospect list? How much higher would you rank him because of the increased velo?

Click Me

Q: Has your routine changed at all now that you are considered a legit pitching prospect? Do the coaches expect more from you?

I think I have the same routine I always did. I work and work and work and work and work and work. I always give 100 percent. I am always prepared. I never stop. My first year, I had a lot of pressure on me, especially in that first game. There was a lot of pressure to play well. I didn’t want to let anybody down. But moving through it got me ready. I realized that in that first game and the pressure left. Now it’s much easier. I know I belong now."

*Also, check out our new prospect map.  It's a work in progress, but I think Joey did a great job with it.  Very cool. 

Seeing how Michael Main is a candidate on the community prospect list, I'd thought I'd share this interview with the readers of minorleagueball. 

Q: What adjustments did you make this fall at instructs that had such a positive effect on your pitching performance?

Main: Adair [minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair] and I reconstructed my whole wind-up, and worked on pitching more athletically. Once we did that, everything just started to click. It just started to come alive a little bit, and it felt really good.

Full Interview 

From Joey Matschulat:

The new website is now available for your perusal at www.bbtia.com, and while it still very much remains a work in progress, the backbone of BBTiA's new home is essentially in place. 

You'll find the same entertaining, thought-provoking content you've come to expect at the independent iteration of BBTiA, plus an additional familiar face. John Vittas has now come full circle and will be rejoining the website he helped build once upon a time as we attempt to establish our own formidable version of the Three J's -- an alphabetically similiar repository of talent that can hopefully rival or surpass that of the late-90s Dallas Mavericks trio of the same name.

From the Main interview:

Q: When did you realize that playing baseball for a living could be a reality?

Main: Probably coming into high school. It’s the only thing I’ve really ever wanted to do. When people would ask me that question, I would always tell them that I wanted to be a baseball player. Coming into high school I thought I could really make a run at this thing. I started developing and becoming a pretty good player. That is when everything started to click and I thought I could really do this.

As usual, your comments are appreciated. 

Click Me

I had the privilege of attending the FIL and I’d like to share some of my observations on the players whom I was able to either see play in game/simulated/side action, speak with personally, or gather information about from the players/scouts in attendance.

On Martin Perez:

Exceptional player/person. I watched Perez throw a side session and I was really impressed with his stuff. His clean, repeatable mechanics in combination with excellent raw stuff point to a pitcher that far exceeds the 17 years of Martin Perez.

His fastball has excellent life and sources say he can already run it up to 94 mph. His curveball, perhaps his best pitch, is a serious hammer. He can drop it into the strike zone at will. His change-up shows promise and will end up giving Perez an arsenal of three above-average pitches to choose from.

I had the privilege of conducting a lengthy interview with Perez, and I can honestly say that it was one of my favorite ones ever. Perez is extremely confident in his ability, but, like Michael Main, doesn’t feel the need to wear it like a badge on his sleeve, or as a chip on his shoulder. He is also one of the smartest players I have ever talked to.

The cool thing is that his knowledge isn’t limited to just the baseball diamond. Perez can speak intelligently about anything you throw at him. I really can’t say enough about this kid. I have a feeling that he could end up being one of the top prospects in baseball at some point. No joke.

My interview with Perez should be ready to go later on this fall.

Updated link:

Link

I had the privilege of attending the FIL last week and I’d like to share some of my observations on the players whom I was able to either see play in game/simulated/side action, speak with personally, or gather information about from the players/scouts in attendance.

On Blake Beavan:

Blake Beavan: Lots of Beavan during my trip. He closed out the Friday game by uncharacteristically walking two batters, one on four pitches. He ended up getting out of the inning by striking out two batters, but he wasn’t that sharp. In his one inning of work, Beavan threw 29 pitches, with 26 of them being fastballs. Considering the average velocity of his fastball was 90.3 mph, I assumed he was only throwing two-seamers. However, when I was discussing the game with Beavan, he told me he was only throwing four-seamers and that he didn’t throw a single two-seamer. Odd.

I have enough for a good interview with Beavan, but I think I’ll wait until the spring to bust it out. Enough has already been made of his velocity drop and I’d rather not recycle the same subject matter. I will say this: Beavan is quite aware of his velocity dip, but feels confident that it will return to the 92-95 mph level.

Comments/Questions/Suggestions/Insults?

Q&A

In Part III of Baseball Time in Arlington’s three-part Q&A series with Coach Bagonzi, the venerable pitching expert weighs in on the risks associated with tall pitchers, the always interesting scapular loading debate and Derek Holland's mechanics.

Coach Bagonzi on tall pitchers:

"It probably is more difficult for really tall pitchers (6′ 5″ and up) to maintain the mechanical consistency and dexterity that smaller pitchers have, because corrections may inflate margins. However, I would never back away from signing a 6′ 6″, 220-pound pitcher, and I’ve seen more of this type lately - great leverage with tremendous potential."