We are passionate and knowledgeable fans. We are desperate for a winning team. We all have our whipping boys, both on the field and on the sidelines. Our recent history in the draft is abysmal. I believe all these factors combine to cloud our collective judgment on the quality of the talent on this team. At various times one or more of our group lauds the play of one or more of the following group of young players: Batten, Carrington, Dareus, Hairston, Jones, Moats, Nelson, Rogers, Roosevelt, Searcy, Troup, Sheppard, Spiller and A. Williams. I am hard pressed to say that any of these guys has demonstrated anything beyond being adequate. My definition of a good player includes the capacity to make every player around him more effective. The good player is a factor in the preparation of the opponent on every play. The good cornerback makes the INT instead of knocking it down, makes the open field tackle instead of slowing the runner down. The good defensive lineman fights through the double team, forces the back to chip him which allows his team mate to make the sack, controls his gap and doesn’t watch plays from his back. Good receivers don’t go offside, run precise routes and are fearless. They do not drop passes in the clutch or fumble trying to stretch a gain. A good running back plays like – well, Fred Jackson. Good O lineman don’t kill drives with holding calls, whiff on a blitzing safety or flinch when facing a good pass rusher. The young players on this roster are currently adequate at best. Maybe they will improve to actually being good. Some have only just started getting on the field. I doubt they were on the sidelines because they demonstrated exceptional talent (although it happened with S. Johnson.) Winning teams have playmakers who are leaders. Except for healthy Fred and Kyle, the Bills have a roster that goes from adequate to below average. I encourage you to go over the roster player by player and grade them. As fans we should not continue to confuse adequate with good.

The Bills are ranked #1 in the NFL in Red Zone scoring percentage at 75%. This is an improvement from 51% last year. The Bills are averaging 3.2 takeaways a game, which is #2 in the NFL. This is an improvement from 1.4 per game last year.

Of the two stats I am of the opinion that the Red Zone scoring is the more likely of the two to be sustainable since there is always an element of "that's the way the ball bounces" in the turnover battle. However, the much improved safety play and overall opportunism of the defense may keep us rolling.

First some disclosures:  I am not now nor will I ever be a college football expert.  I am a fan, not a fanatic.  I watched Cam Newton a total of 3 times this season:  Alabama, South Carolina and Oregon, so I can hardly claim comprehensive knowledge.  As usual imperfect knowledge does not prevent me from forming an opinion and that opinion is he should not be drafted by the Bills with the 3rd pick in the 2011 draft.  My primary reason is that because of the system utilized by Auburn it is impossible to make any judgment about Newton’s ability to read and react to the defense.  The Auburn system took almost all of that out of Newton’s hands.  They ran a no huddle with a base spread set up which almost always had Newton in the shotgun.  As the defense aligned, Newton and the offense were signaled the play from the sideline.  I never saw Newton audible from that.  The offensive play caller had total control.  My understanding of the NFL is that a play (or plays) is called by the offensive play caller via radio to the quarterback in the huddle.  The offense lines up and now the quarterback takes over, reads the defense, adjusts or changes the play.  Responsibility passes to the quarterback once the huddle is broken.  Obviously, the ability to make these reads is critical to the success of a quarterback in the NFL.  I know that very few college offenses require a quarterback to make the reads the NFL requires but I think the Auburn system is particularly lacking in requiring any decision making by the quarterback.  Another “system” type issue is that Newton played behind either the best or second best (Wisconsin?) offensive line in college football.  The 4 senior starters had a collective total of over 150 starts among them!  Wrap me in a comfort blanket Mom!  Newton’s athleticism is undeniable but I watched him consistently throw off his back foot while moving.  He was accurate on short and medium passes from hash mark to hash mark but his short passes toward the sideline were frequently poorly thrown.  Finally, he seldom had to throw into the type of small window an NFL quarterback is faced with all the time.  Time after time his receivers were wide open down the field for easy completions.  We all know that doesn’t happen very often in the NFL.  I am confident that CHIX will see this similarly and will also have the benefit of the “Wonderlic” test to complete the “Rule of 26, 27 and 60.” Newton will find himself trying to play without training wheels somewhere other than Buffalo.

It seems that Nix/Whaley have made a significant number of moves which have generated very positive results.  If our excellent community/staff could pull together a summary of the moves it may prove to be very interesting.  If the NFL goes to an 18 game schedule the ability to make in season moves will become even more important.  I'll get started by listing a few on the O line:  Urbik, Wrotto and Rhinehard.

I have been active on Rumblings for about 3 years and seldom miss a day.  The quality and quantity of postings on the sight is truly impressive.  “Party lines” are becoming more and more evident among Rumblers as this disastrous season progresses.  I will try to lay out the “platforms” of each “party” and solicit your votes and comments including additional parties and platforms.  Outrage, hyperbole and sarcasm preferred.  Jump!

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Although the polls may not be officially closed, the tabulated votes show a crushing defeat for CHIX.  Since I am so negative, I will focus on the negative:  Sir Budford Nix's disapproval rating went up by a multiple of 10 - from 5% on 9/7 to 50% today.  That debacle paled by comparison to his hand picked, offensive guru, NFL experienced, head coach, Chan the Man.  His disapproval rating went up by a multiple of 47!  It went from a paltry 1% disapproval to today's 47%.  Nothing like playing real games to sharpen the mind.

Just watched Nix's hand picked savior of the franchise.  He stated that he had no clue as to what happened to the offensive line play because he had not seen the film.  All he could say was that he had a "sense" that things were not working.  Well coach I've got breaking news for you: digital replay of everything that goes on in the game is instantly available to you should you chose to use it.  It is not really very hard.  You need a bunch of cameras, people to operate them and someone you trust to evaluate what is happening.  Then you might actually be able to adjust while the game is still being played.  Just a thought.  

This could have been one of the all time stupidest coaching decisions ever made.  An unproven quarterback (or 3), an inexperienced offensive line who had never played together and Team Jauron says "Perfect, let's go no huddle."  In fact it was never a no huddle but a "muddle" with the resulting worst of all worlds.  Even the harshest critics of Chix can't believe they will do anything that stupid.  I can't remember how long they went with it but it was way too long.

Below is a key quote from Nix’s remarks on why he did not take a QB in their first couple of rounds (Chris Brown, April 29th):

“Here’s the way we looked at it,” said Nix. “We’ve got guys physically that can do anything as well as anybody in the draft physically. Throw the ball well, make all the throws, mobile, can move around and are smart. We’ve got guys like that. Now obviously they’ve been kind of inconsistent and up and down, but there are a lot of reasons for that.”

Let’s take them one at a time per QB.  “Throw the ball well.”  Edwards, prior to his first concussion, threw the ball well.  Since then he has been reluctant to make any throw down the field.  Fitz does not throw the ball well period.  In one game in the snow BB was just ok but I would give him an incomplete.  “Make all the throws.”  Same as above.  “Mobile, can move around.”  None of them are Drew Bledsoe but none are JP either.  “Smart.”  I think TE is smart enough to know that he does not ever want to get hit as hard as he was hit on that first concussion and therefore will always prematurely check down.  Fitz definitely smart but smarts cannot make up for his glaring lack of ability.  BB was allegedly bounced from Packers because he was either too dumb or too lazy to learn the playbook.

I totally agree with his other points about the coaching and rooster turmoil and injuries but  drawing a straight line from them to not taking a QB in the early rounds seems a stretch.

I believe that the better analysis is that Buddy and his cohorts are risk averse.   Neither Jimmy nor Colt was mortal lock and therefore Buddy couldn’t stomach the risk.  Praising his existing band of trio of sub standard NFL QBs is a diversion.

More below.

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Buffalo, NY—Buffalo Bills coaches said quarterback Trent Edwards was reading far too much into the positioning and schemes of the opposing defense Sunday, obsessing over what the secondary's coverage might imply about him as a player and a person and taking the play of the safeties in particular as a personal affront. "So are they showing signs of a blitz because they think I can't get rid of the ball fast enough, or because they think I can't handle pressure and scramble away from commitment at the first signs of trouble?"Edwards was overheard asking his coaches. "Look, I know the tendencies of this defense, and the corners wouldn't be playing so far off if they thought I had any backbone. They obviously don't believe I have the inner strength to go deep. And you know what? Maybe they're right." According to the coaching staff, Edwards is still overthinking their decision to bench him.

There is an adage always used in baseball that any player over the course of a season becomes the back of his baseball card,  In other words your career stats are who you are and cannot be outperformed over any reasonable period of time.  I believe this adage can also be applied to football.  I started thinking about this when commenting on a fan post and decided to take a more detailed look at H of F owner, Ralph Wilson.  The back of his card after the jump.

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I’m pretty much shocked to realize that this is my 50th season as a Bills’ fan.  Going into the season opener with all the turmoil at OBD, I was totally prepared to be blown out by the Pats on the road.  Instead, I was peaking on an emotional high only to be devastated by an extraordinarily painful loss of a game we should have won.  Good teams win in those circumstances; poor teams will find the way to lose (my 400th loss as a Bills’ fan.)   The Dick Jauron coached Bills’ teams, with the exception of the first quarter of last year, have found the way to lose.  When I watched the Pats game a second time I was struck by how mediocre a team they were and less impressed by the Bills’ performance.  The loss of Poz was a blow, not because I think he is good (I don’t) but because his back up (Marcus Buggs) arguably must be worse.

Looking forward to the game against the Bucs, I read all the posts from our noble and talented leader on the blog as well as all the fan posts.  I was particularly interested in the comments from the Bucs’ bloggers who basically said the Bucs had to win this game because they couldn’t win their next several games. 

As a long time Bills’ fan, it is hard to ever be optimistic, but I felt decent going into the game.   Great start as we all know but two plays were devastating: T.O.’s drop and Jackson’s fumble (nice block Roscoe.)   They accounted for a 17 to 21 point swing.  Felt like we took more risks on offensive in the first half than any Jauron Bills’ team:  4th and 1 around our own 38 (made it plus 15 for facemask); going for the bomb on the Bucs’ 30 on 3rd and 1 (TD Evans.)  When I watched the first half for a second time, I thought the O line did a good job (1 holding on Bell), especially the two rookie guards and the center.

The 3rd quarter was just awful.  The ineptitude of the Bucs was greatly appreciated.  Putting up the first 3 points of the half in the 4th was big and the bomb to Owens was huge and, hopefully, an investment in his fragile psychological future.  The defense, particularly late in the game, was good.  I really liked the aggressive blitzing late in the game.  Like all fans, I hate “prevent” defense. 

Overall, a win is a win.  The Bucs are at the bottom in the NFL and if you can’t beat them at home you are really bad. 

I went back and watched the Jets and Pats and it confirmed to me that the Pats are not on their game yet.  It is not even close to the team that went 16 and 0.  The Pats loss to the Jets diminished the Bills’ performance in week 1.

The season ending injury to Butler and the injuries to Schouman, McKelvin and Nelson really hurt.  If some GM is willing to trade an OT for Roscoe, please call but I doubt it.  If Maybin thinks he can continuously rush straight up field and ever get to the QB he is sadly mistaken.   He did the OT a favor by taking himself out of the play almost every time he was in there.  Other random observations include Lindell kicking it into the end zone 3 times; Roscoe failing to catch a punt resulting in the Bills’ starting on the 6 and an excellent first half from Kyle Williams.

The Saints look to be a totally different story.  Tremendous offensive and a questionable defense but we can’t win a shoot out.  I’m praying for rain and 30 mph winds.

I’m trying to game theory this thing.  Major assumption is that all parties will act out of economic self interest.

Peters:  I proclaim myself the best left tackle in the NFL and therefore deserve to be paid as such.  My evidence is All Pro 2 years.  I demand $12 million per.

Bills:  Is he the best left tackle in the NFL and/or is he worth $12 mm?  No to both.  Let’s negotiate and explore a trade.  Maybe some other team thinks he’s worth a No.1 and 3.  The NFL pundits react by not puking all over the Bills’ demand but questioning Peters’ proclamation.

Rest of League:  Judging solely by the fact that no deal has even been hinted at, the Eagles and others have concluded that a No.1 and 3 (or anything close) plus $12 million to a guy with questionable attitude and work ethic, no way.  Timing is a real issue here as doing a deal with the Bills before draft day benefits the Bills because they would have a known hole to deal with and draft pick(s) to use.  After draft day the Bills can only deal with a Peters’ hole by trade.  Assuming the Bills do not draft a top left tackle prospect while retaining Peters, post draft deals for the Bills require more in a trade since an option for them has been foreclosed.     

This appears to be where we are now.  The following feels logical and I know that logic does not often prevail, especially with desperate people on both sides.  But I’m relying on game theory where parties act out of their economic interest.

Peters:  I’m under contract for 2 years; holding out cost me a lot of money last year ($600k), reduced my effectiveness (11.5 sacks) and therefore my market value (no takers at $12mm).  If I do that again, I’m arguably harming myself.  Every day I stay out of camp costs money and every game I miss costs mega money. How can that be in my economic self interest?  Why don’t I go as far as I can in a brief holdout, take either what the Bills or others put on the table or play out another year and revisit the market again?  The most important thing I can do if I do not sign a new contract is to have a great season.  The worst things I can do are 1, not play at all and 2, play poorly.  Of course, by playing I always assume the risk of a career ending injury.  This is an acceptable risk.

Bills:  The coaching staff is in a “win at any cost” situation and the front office is in a “win at almost any cost” situation, but they both know that nobody will give the Bills what they think is fair value plus pay Peters.  Even his greedy agent has to recognize the facts.  To reiterate them:  if he is good enough to warrant the top salary for a left tackle in the league, he is worth a 1 and 3 pick plus $12mm.  Since no one is willing to accept that offer, the market says he isn’t good enough.  Let’s make him a reasonable offer (and make sure the fans know we made a reasonable offer) and take our chances.  We can rely on Peters ultimately concluding that he cannot afford a material hold out.  Even with him we are unlikely to make the playoffs (our best player (Lynch) is out for 3 games), so mortgaging our future on him is not a good bet for the franchise.  Draft day will proceed assuming Peters plays but a tackle is taken in tha middle rounds.

Conclusion:  Peters stays, holds out through the first 2 preseason games and comes back without a new contract.  Of course, the Bills go 7 and 9.

Let me take you back to some very insightful and provocative comments made last June by Brian Galliford:

"Character."  It's the overriding quality of hard work and "team player" that former Buffalo Bills GM Marv Levy and his regime worked hard to build a new team around in his two-year run from 2006 to 2007.  Those two character-based teams finished 7-9 in consecutive years under the leadership of Dick Jauron, and with the team moving in the correct direction talent-wise, Levy saw fit to retire for a second time from the Bills organization, which handed the reigns to a trio of Levy's understudies...

Five Offensive Players With Issues
Clearly, the affair du jours is RB Marshawn Lynch's apparent hit-and-run incident from this past weekend.  If it's found that Lynch was the driver and fled the scene of the accident, he'll be charged with a high-level misdemeanor and face up to a year of jail time; we haven't even discussed league punishment yet…. 

What is "Character"?
Maybe Bills fans - including yours truly - have been working under a different assumption of what the word "character" means than the Bills organization itself has.  Often misrepresented as "choir boys" or other assorted metaphors, I've personally always viewed character players as guys who work hard, buy into the team attitude, and do their job the right way.  Naturally, given this viewpoint (which I'm positive isn't shared by everyone here), I've been disappointed with some of the issues that have arisen this off-season, specifically in the case of Lynch, Hardy and Parrish….

But there's also an important part of character that is going to play a big factor in the future of the three guys I just mentioned - learning from your mistakes.  Will Lynch learn from his mistake, follow through on the legal process, accept his punishment and keep his nose clean?...”

Today

Here we are, 8 months later, having gone 7-9 again; the team built with “character” has failed on that level also.  Lynch learned nothing from his “mistake” (How hard is it not to carry a gun?)  Clearly, the Bills’ management made a serious mistake when they drafted Lynch based on some standard that he had at least enough “character” to stay out of jail (a pretty low standard.)  Not only are they horrible at judging talent, they can’t judge character either.  Is the party line that we draft people of “character” just an excuse for fielding a less than mediocre team?  Let’s face it:  as long as Ralph (HoF) Wilson owns this team, we will not compete.  He does not have a clue when it comes to putting together an organization of competent, responsible professionals.

“What Was Coach Thinking?” is the lead article on a page in the Sports section of the today’s New York Times (2/1/09).  The focus of the entire page is a computer program (named “Zeus”) which is based upon proven game theory strategies.  Here are a few links to some of the articles contained on the page: here, here, here and here. 

“Zeus” analyzes “the relative merits of critical play choices – fourth downs, kickoffs and 2- point conversions.”  Of course this is a very limited number of scenarios in a game but it is still interesting.  I could not find a link to what was entitled “The 2008 Zeus Rankings” so I have replicated it below with the addition of the column called “NFL Rank.”  For this I used the team rank found at nfl.com.  The introduction to the “2008 Zeus Rankings” states as follows:

“Zeus assessed every critical call in the regular season and determined when more aggressive actions were warranted.  These rankings reflect the percentage of time each team concurred with the Zeus recommendation.”

What immediately strikes you is that there is no correlation between a high “Zeus” rank and success in the NFL.  In fact you could argue just the opposite.   One of the FAQs accompanying the article states as follows:

“Q. How can some of the best N.F.L. teams score so low while some of the weakest teams top the list?

A.      A coach’s ability to make critical decisions is entirely independent of player talent. A number of important components comprise a successful N.F.L. team, and critical calls are just one facet. The average N.F.L. team cost itself nearly one game (0.98 to be exact) in aggregate Game Winning Chance errors during the 2008 regular season. The average N.F.L. team wins about eight games a season. Critical calls are an important and often overlooked factor, but they are by no means the most important factor determining success. Player personnel, execution, preparing for an opponent and, yes, luck all play into the prospects of making the postseason.”

So, bottom line, Zeus critical play calling is only meaningful if talent, execution and preparation are equal.  Extrapolating from the Zeus analysis, play calling in general takes a back seat to talent, execution and preparation.