SB Nation User Blog: jpmorgan5150

Shoulder injuries - Mulder vs. Carpenter

jpmorgan5150 — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:15:50 -0000

I missed this somehow, but Mulder's rehab was very similar to Chris Carpenters.

I was curious to see if there were any differences or similarities in Mulder and Carpenters injury history. Here is what I found:

Carp had elbow problems in 1999 (surgery to remove bone spurs); he had a rough year in 2000 and had a great year in 2001. Then, in 2002 he came down with shoulder troubles. He had shoulder surger to repair a torn labrum to end the season in September 02.

The Blue Jays DFA'd him to AAA and he elected free agency. The cards picked him up for the minimum and he rehabbed through July in 2003 until he had to have a second shoulder surgery to remove scar tissue (sound familiar?) in July. He missed the rest of the year; before the surgery he was AWEFUL in his rehab assignment in the minors.

All this information is from the Cardinals bio page on Carp/Mulder.

Basically, Carp was terrible in 2002 (he was injured) and then was out from September 2002 through all of 2003 and started the season with the Cardinals in 2004. His injury and two surgeries kept him from being effective for two years.

Knowing this now, I'm really surprised that the Cardinals extended him long term. I was all for it when it happened, but that was a bad contract. They are now examining the higher risk mechanics and the hightened risk that bad mechanics bring with it (or so I've heard/Classic Mechanics), but hopefully that will allow them to make smarter decisions on signing pitchers (although it didn't help much with Wainwright, if Chris O'Leary is to be believed).

Mulder had a similar track record. He lost effectiveness in 2006 and went in for shoulder surgery in September. After coming back in late 2007 he had surgery again to repair scar tissue in September. His injury has kept him from being effective for two plus years.

Similar to Carp with a few significant differences. Mulder had the shoulder problems that lead to reduced performance, like Carpenter. He also had a second surgery to remove scar tissue. As I see it, there are some differences in their injuries:

Carpenter also had elbow troubles. O'Leary says the inverted L causes both shoulder and elbow troubles, but I'm no expert. Hopefully Carp's shoulder is in good shape now.
Mulder had to change his mechanics. I have not seen anything that shows that Carp had to change his mechanics after should surgery, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.
Carpenter had from July to spring training to recover from his surgery, 7 months; Mulder has had from September to May, roughly 8 months. Its a wash.

My point is this - pitchers can recover from shoulder trouble and be effective. I would hate to cut bait on Mulder before confirming that his shoulder is in tatters and he won't be an effective pitcher. I would hate to see him move to another team and regain his former self. Both of these guys are great guys, and its a shame to see them struggle due to injury (which is completely out of their control).

That said - I'll be the first to wave goodbye and move on if he is not effective. I will still quietly hate Billy Beane for what he did to us. I remember hearing the news about the trade and thinking "Carpenter & Mulder. Wow."

Decisions in the War Room

jpmorgan5150 — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:25:40 -0000

Why in the world would the Cardinals target Matt Herges? Don't we have enough older RHRP in the pen? Does it have anything to do with the rotation or current RHRP?

I have a couple of theories I want to float concerning the Cardinals rotation issues and what I think is going to happen going forward, especially concerning the rotation.

Today's excellent post by lboros details the scary state of Wellemeyer's arm. The rule holds true that when you increase the innings from one year to the next a pitcher's injury risk goes through the roof. I'm lazy and at work and don't have time to look up the exact amount (I think its an increase of 80 innings, if memory serves me).

Looper went through the same thing last year (as lboros points out); now he looks like an effective pitcher, a year later. Wellemeyer may be in the same boat - as lboros detailed, not effective for the rest of the year, future looks bright.

So what are the Cardinals considering? Here is my theory. There is no way that Mo trades for Fuentes or Holiday from Colorado. The cost would be some significant prospects and payroll - and I don't want the Cards to overpay for production they can get from current players or prospects. Also, that does not jive with the stated philosophy - and until proven otherwise, I'm going to believe they are really trying to build from within.

However, the Cardinals did inquire on Matt Herges (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/rockies-trade-t.html). WHAT? Why would they inquire on Matt Herges? The link says they are looking for a veteran presence...what? Don't we have several veteran prescences in the bullpen already!

Herges is having a good year - here is baseball prospectus link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hergema01.php. However, he reminds me of Springer - older righty with solid numbers, no significant road/home split and is tough on lefties. However, I'm a little scared by his righty numbers.

VS. LEFT: .210 / .559 VS. RIGHT: .306 / .869 HOME: .261 / .770 AWAY: .256 / .659

He is 38 with an ERA of 3.32 over 43 innings, 31/15 k/bb rate. He is signed through this year for $2.5M with an option for next year.

Why would the Cardinals want another righty? The only thing that makes sense is that they are going to move McClellan to the rotation (IMHO).

I think the plan is this:

See what Mulder has. If no contribution is expected as a starter, try again as a lefty specialist. They will try everything to make sure they are not overlooking an asset.
If Mulder isn't a starter, McClellan gets moved to the rotation.
Trade small time prospects for another shut down right handed reliever - Matt Herges.

While McClellan was in relief last year in AA Springfield and has been a reliever this year, he is also up for a higher injury risk. I seem to remember some similarity to Carp & Wainwrights pitches and McClellan's offerings, but I can't find the link now.

My guess would be that the Cards are hesitant to move McClellan to the rotation due to injury risk, but now that we are 1/2 through the season he could be effective for at least a good portion of the remaining season before having problems. Hopefully he wouldn't pitch effectively into the playoffs and then struggle with injury, but it could happen.

Either way, here are my fearless preditions:

Mulder is ineffective through two starts. He is moved to the bullpen and ineffective and eventually cut loose.
McClellan is moved to the rotation.
Mo trades for two relievers - Herges (or his equivalent) and a cheap cost controlled left hander, probably no one that has been mentioned at this point. I'll be very surprised if anyone significant gets moved from the minors (any of our top 10 prospects).

I'll probably be wrong, and Wellemeyer or Mulder may be effective. Time will tell. Either way, moving McClellan to the rotation is an aggressive move and stands well with the philosophy of building from within.

Give Mozeliak some credit!

jpmorgan5150 — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:02:40 -0000

This is my first post - I'm an avid reader. I think we should give Mozeliak some props considering we are approaching the all star break and the trade rumors are heating up again.

It has been a while since spring training, but I watched mlbtraderumors and the blogs religiously during the winter meetings/offseason. The entire time I was pretty disappointed - and I'm sure I wasn't alone. I wanted to see some very specific action to improve what was a pretty terrible team last year. Outstanding starting pitching - I wanted a trade. Impact bat - I wanted a trade. Nothing really happened that I considered significant.

This is from memory (since I'm lazy and at work), but Mozeliak said a number of things in spring and during the early season that we should validate with the half season results.

We will be competitive.
We won't trade Rolen to the Brewers for Dave Bush (action more than words).
We don't need an impact bat, we have internal options. (Hello Ryan Ludwick!)
Our starting pitching will be exciting to watch (although we aren't adding starters every month as predicted).
We will have a surplus to trade with at starting pitching and the outfield.

That is all I can come up with without searching the news archives. However, lets give Mo some credit. He is a solid 3 out of 5, and may yet be right on starters coming back and dealing from a surplus with the starting pitching. We'll see.

He nailed the Rolen trade - pretty impressive. He scouted Ludwick at Colorado (although Ryan didn't play when he went to watch), so I have to think he had him on a short list (but that is my opinion) and may have been involved in signing him. And the cards are more than competitive this year.

On the same note, we are approaching the trade deadline and many people are yelling for Mo to trade Duncan. First, give Mo and La Russa credit for staying with Duncan - the guy looks to be coming out of his customary half season slump. If he can hit 20 homers in the second half, look out. It looks like both Glaus and Ankiel are hitting the long ball - those three can be pretty imposing when coupled with the Mang.

However, I'm sick of seeing the fan posts that list Reyes and Duncan as great trade chips and tout Mather over Duncan. Mather is unproved. Reyes is injured and has been REALLY BAD in the big leagues, minus one Detroit start and one world series start. The only way he gets traded is if the cards are willing to sell low - and every team is slobbering to buy low on someone with Reyes perceived ability. That means we get crap in return, unless we get someone with as high a risk/reward back in return. We aren't going to trade Reyes and Duncan and get Fuentes, Nady, anyone worth what we want.

As for complaining about Duncan - he is in an elite club with Pujols as the only Cardinal to hit 20 or more homers in their first 2 full seasons. Duncan has also hit consistently at the major league level. I hate nepotism as much as the next guy, but Duncan could stand on his own in any organization in the big leagues.

Look at Daric Barton's stats - one of the chips in THAT trade - and you can see Duncan's first full year was incredibly superior (although Dunc was older).

Barton - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bartoda02.shtml

Duncan - http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/duncach01.shtml

While Barton is not an outfielder (is Duncan?), I think that Oakland would love to have Duncan's first year as a major leaguer over Barton's first full year so far.

My point? Mozeliak is building legitimacy. I'm willing to trust the guy a little more now based on this half season. Also, the trade deadline is coming, and the rumors are starting to pile up. Matt Holiday? Fuentes? What I've seen from Mo says no way to selling the farm for either of these guys.

I would guess if a deal is done it will be from a position of strength - catcher and outfield. I would guess that we will see Anderson or one of our outfield (maybe even Skip or Ludwick) traded for a cost controlled lefty, not a rental. And we should be looking at teams that have a desire for either catcher or outfield. I will rate outfield higher - Anderson is not ready for a role in the big leagues yet, so he is not a typical 'shore up a position for a playoff run' type trade.

Here is my prediction - an active roster outfielder and a prospect or two for a cost controlled lefty. I would guess Rays, but you never know. Who else needs outfileders?

I could be wrong, but so far Mo has been above average and we should give him some trust going into the trade deadline.