I'm still burning from the Yanks early exit.  I do not like the best of 5 series.  Too many upsets.  Just does not seem right after 162 game marathon so here is what I'm thinking and would like to hear your thoughts:

1. The two wildcard teams play a best of three series instead of the proposed one game and in scenario.  No travel days so the other teams only lose a five days at the most.  Games one and three at the team's park with the better record.  Could be difficult if the series is EC / WC but travel days could be problematic with stretching the season out too much.

2. The next series starts the next day after the third scheduled game of the wildcard series with the wildcard winner playing the team with the best record.

3.  All series except the wildcard are seven game series.  The cream rises to the top in a seven game series.

Effectively this structure is a big penalty for the two wild card teams as they will probably be unable to throw their #1 until game 2 or 3 in the next series.

Several days away from the Yanks lastest failure in the playoffs, I keep thinking how is Cashman (I think he will be back) going to bridge the one or two years until hopefully the next wave of young Core players is ready, while giving the Yanks a chance to compete next year.

Considering A-Rod an immovable object, it seems a reasonable strategy to unlock the block to getting Montero's bat into the lineup consistently would be to trade Tex for a #2 SP such as Cain, Ervin Santana, Latos, and maybe a prospect chip or two.  Trading Tex would open the 1B spot for Montero.  From reports Montero is not a strong defensive catcher and is too slow for the OF so 1B is probably the eventual spot.

So, the natural response is, "Why trade a proven commodity in Tex when the Yanks could package Montero, one of the Bees, and probably two other top prospects for King Felix or another #1."  The response: Get Young.  Let's finally see what the Yanks have been developing in their farm system.  If the Yanks' scouts and outsides observers have credibility then at least one of the following should be at least a #2 SP within two years: Banuelos, Brackman, Betances.  And maybe anothr will serve as a closer?

So, within two years the rotation would be: CC (needs to be signed), Cain/Sanata/Latos or some other #2, Nova, Hughes (hopefully) or AJ, one of the Bees.  Not horrible.  And if it does not work out the Yanks could always overpay for parts to be competitive.

With Tex gone, Montero playing 1B, the DH spot is open for A-Rod full-time and enables the Yanks to put Nunez at 3B.  Having Nunez full-time at 3B will enable the Yanks to see what they really have.  If the Yanks are fortunate Nunez gets his defense under control and comes a stronger contributor offensively.  Is .275 / 15 / 80 / 30 SB unreasonable?

The lineup looks like: LF - Gardner, SS- Jeter, 2B - Cano, DH - A-Rod, 1B - Montero, CF - Granderson, Swisher - RF (think he should be resigned), Martin (resign if reasonable) / Romaine - C, Nunez - 3B.

As I write the lineup above, I'm not overly excited, how can it be approved?

At the risk of being ridiculed (which happens often to me on this blog), I propose signing FA Reyes and putting him at 3B, moving Nunez to RF and not resigning Swisher.  Use Swisher's $9 million salary to offset the $20 million / yr cost of getting Reyes.  Reyes plays 3B until Jeter retires.  Reyes' defense at 3B cannot be worse then Nunez's current performance - can it?  If this happened the lineup could be: 3B - Reyes, SS - Jeter, 2B - Cano, DH - A-Rod, 1B - Montero, CF - Granderson, C - Martin / Romaine, RF - Nunez, LF - Gardner.  The lineup would have a lot of speed, but loses 62 HRs and 196 RBIs (Tex and Swisher) that needs to be replaced by Montero and Nunez - which will probably only provide 35 HRs and 140 RBIs?  So, as I write this I'm thinking, "I love the speed and dynamic nature of the lineup by adding Reyes, but people are out of position and there is a lot of offense to make up."  So, I'm back to re-signing Swisher and the original configuration.

Obviously, the above is just an average Yankee fan, writing out some thoughts, like many Yankee fans have been pondering since Thursday.

Watching this team has been yelling at the TV like a Mets fan.  Of course at the players inability of being clutch, but also of Girardi's tactics.  I'm not the first to compliant about Giradi so I'm probably highlighting the obvious but I need a place to vent.

This team looks old.  And while some players are long in the tooth (specifically ARod, Jeter, Posada), the following regulars (Grandy, Gardner, Cano, Swisher, Martin, Tex) are in their prime years of 27 - 32.  So, why does this team look so old?  The lack of aggressiveness on the base paths.  Yes, we are not blessed with enormous speed, but 10 steal attempts by Gardner in 38 games.  Crazy!  Granderson is 4.  Ugh!  Also, whatever happened to the hit-and-run.  I do not see it.  The team is too stationery.  Yes, the team is not hitting well.  But, personally, I would rather see players thrown out because players swing and miss because of aggressive play, then this stationery wait for the three-run homer.  Press the damn issue Girardi!

And what the heck was Girardi thinking about Posada last night!  Batting 9th!  That is suppose to shake things up!  If anything, I would have rather seen Posada CATCHING a game and keep him in his batting slot and make Martin the DH.  I CANNOT BELIEVE POSADA HAS NOT CAUGHT ONE GAME THIS YEAR!!!  Give the guy a damn bone!  I mean would it kill the Yankees if Posada caught once a week?  It gives him something to look forward to and probably brings his head back to the game somewhat.  Instead Girardi bats him 9th.  I feel like this move alone should be the reason for Girardi's firing and bring in a fiery manager like Bobby Valentine.

Since Artest is on the outs in LA, do you think there is any chance the Knicks have enough to trade for Artest?  Assuming the Carmelo trade occurs based on the rumored Chandler, Curry, Anthony and a pick what do you think of a starting lineup of: Felton, Artest, Carmelo, Amare, Turiaf?  Defense improves significantly while no reduction in overall scoring.  If Turiaf can't go then slide Amare in C and Fields in SG.  I'm expecting that due to Artest's high contract the Knicks may be able to get Artest for Walker and Azu?  Leaving the Knicks with Douglas, Fields, Williams, Moz and fillers off the bench.  Crazy?

Where does the Soriano deal leave Joba?  I think he is going to be looked at as a starter.  What is the risk in that at this point?  It is a much better option than trading him.  Joba should be a serviceable 5th starter.  Even a 4.50 ERA gets him 8 wins.  And what happens if he perform half-way decent?  The guy has good stuff, has been jerked around more than enough by the Yankees and deserves a fair shot at the 5th slot.  No pitch count.  Go out there at take it Joba.

Expect Greinke to be a Yankee before Sunday. It will add pressure to Lee and will put the Yankees in a position where maybe they run up the cost on another team getting Lee since the Yankees will already have Greinke in their stable. I mean is there any other reason to get Martin except to include Jesus in a trade for Greinke?

So, we will probably go into work with a rotation of CC, Lee, Greinke, Hughes and AJ and all will be right with the world as Yanks vs Red Soxs.

The Lee move is exactly what a desperate team does.  Grasp for anything!  As a lifelong Yankee fan I am miserable with this move.  Yes, it makes them better.  Yes, it allows them to compete in 2011.  Yes, that this all Yankee fans care about - except those that remember the 80s!  Remember those long years?  If not, they will be here soon.

Boston has had a great off season and we cannot compete against that this year.  Why are we even trying?  This is truly mortgaging the future!  I know we are not giving up youth.  I know it is not my money.  But this is WRONG!  Lee is a BAD, BAD, BAD move.  I sign that we are moving back to the 80s.

With that off my chest, now the next move is that the Yankees will trade for Greinke  Say good-bye to Joba, Jesus and two other good prospects.

So, now that I talked through this, I have to admit a rotation of CC, Lee, Greinke, Hughes, AJ makes me feel a little better :)

What do the Yankees need?  Pitching.  What is not available on the free agent market?  Pitching.  Lee should be an option the Yankees pass on unless when the final offer comes to them (and it will of course) and the annual salary is no greater than $20 mil and for only six years.  But even then I would pass.

The Yankees are in dicey waters.  No doubt their core is old.  From a risk/reward standpoint I would like to see them pass on free agents this off season and roll the dice with a strategy of seeing "what they have."  They can always tweak as the season progresses.

Here is my reasoning:

Current Roster

Offense

Very Strong Performers: Cano, A-Rod, Tex

Strong Performers: Grandy, Jeter (expect a rebound)

Average Performers: Swisher, Posada, Gardner

Question Marks: Jesus

Overall: Slightly Above Performers

Pitching

Very Strong: CC (18 - 20 wins)

Strong: Hughes (15 - 18 wins)

Average: AJ (better pitching coach, cannot be as bad as last year) (10 - 15 wins)

Question Marks: Nova, Pettitte, Joba (yes, I would like to see him back in the rotation - this is a very high risk/reward decision - if he performs at 4.50 era we are fine) (8 - 10 wins each; figure three pitchers substituting in the 5th slot))

Overall: Average 

Bullpen: Average (10 - 15 wins from the pen / spot starters)

The above should result in  77 - 98 or an average of 87.5 wins and if we get some positive surprises we are right there in the hunt.  Let the Angels overpay for Crawford (that is a win for the Yanks anyway - out of the division and he will be a good player but not great).  Let Texas or Phila get Lee or even better the Nats - in three years whoever gets Lee will be crying with that contract.

Maybe add some bit players to strengthen the bench, but even that I would feel like let the youth play.

Many of posters will say I'm ridiculous and that this is a weak team.  But I think I would rather a weak team with some upside then being saddled with horrible long-term contracts.  It is time for other teams to choke on that.

Are the Yankees in the same spot they were in  when CC was a free agent - that they MUST get Lee?  I certainly hope not.  I think Lee will be a HUGE mistake.  I would rather the Yankees add Garland to CC, AJ, Hughes, Andy and if Garland does not work have Nova slide in.  Keep Nova on the team as long relief coming out of Spring Training.  Btw, I think Joba should get another shot in the rotation or used in a trade for a pitcher.  I think he is wasting away in the pen.  And, he really was not that horrible in his first year as a starter.

What would happen if the Yankees publicly state that they are out of the running for Lee and are moving on?  Do you think anyone would take them seriously?  Would it bring down Lee's value?  Let the market establish the market price for Lee without the Yankees.  I'm sure Lee's agent with give the Yankees the last look.  Isn't that what an agent is suppose to do?  Get the best price for their client.  And if the Yankees' are interested, giving the Yankees the last shot is the thing the agent needs to do.  The trick is can the Yankees' disinterest be seriously taken?  Btw, I DO NOT WANT LEE ON THE YANKEES.

It is sad to see Jeter playing like this.  The sixth inning at bat shows just how much he has slipped.  Can you imagine him NOT at least hitting the ball to the right side to get Gardner to third in any other post season?  I understand Lee was incredible, but I'm so use to seeing Jeter rally the troops.

Tomorrow will be better.  Probably goes seven and I think the Yanks pull it out.  AJ will be strong tomorrow.

Let me first say that I am not a blind Joba supporter. I think he has good raw materials to work with, but so do many pitchers that never reach their potential.

Since the Yankees are about winning now, despite the youth movement, would it surprise you if the Yankees trade Joba? What about a Joba, Montero, Brackman for Mauer deal? Or maybe a three-team trade to get Crawford?

It just seems like Joba has become a problem for the Yankees. A square peg in a round hole.

Listen, I would like to see Joba stay. I think he will be an integral part of the next "nucleus", but I would not put it past the Yankees to make a move.

The Yankees are going to f this up.  Granderson is not an experiment.  And there is NO WAY he should be batting seventh.  Damn it!  Put Jeter back in the 2 slot and put Granderson lead off.  And stop this crap about Granderson playing LF.  Stick him in CF.  Before his injury Granderson was one of the feared young up and coming players in the MLB.  And what are the Yanks doing?  Treating him like a spare part!  Girardi get your head out of your arse and put the proper lineup together coming out of Spring Training which is:

Granderson, Jeter, Tex, ARod, Cano (he will flourish here), Posada, Johnson, Swisher, Gardner

You have to love the speed when the lineup turns over 9,1,2

What the heck is Cashman doing?  Winn batted under .160 against lefties batting righty last year.  This is just a replacement for Gardner.  Cashman has screwed up the offensive side this offseason with the addition of Johnson and Winn.  We would have been better off passing on both of them and just keeping Damon.  I think Cashman is just being spiteful now on Damon because he despises Boras so much and wants to embarrass him.

Can someone tell me who the heck is batting 5th?!  I asked this question at the start of the off-season and it has still not been answered!  People laughed at my suggestion of Ankiel as a low cost option.  Now, tell me who is going to protect A-Rod.  Cano?  Posada?  Granderson?  Who!

This is a glaring hole that has not been addressed!  Of the three above, I think Cano provides the best protection for A-Rod.  Granderson can be pitched to by a lefty and Posada does not scare me if I have a choice of pitching to A-Rod or Posada.

I know he had a horrible second half, but Dye is the only FA that attracts me and I think presents a threat to a pitcher in the 5 hole.  He also batted .292 against lefties last year and hit a HR every 18 ABs regardless of facing lefties or righties.  If he can be had for what Damon will sign for ($5m) I would say Cash should get him.  Why get Damon at this point when they signed Johnson (another lefty hitter)?

Is this lineup so horrible?

Jeter (R) - Johnson (L) - Tex (S) - ARod (R) - Dye (R) - Cano (L) - Posada (S) -  Swisher (S) - Granderson (L) 

No, but I would prefer:

Granderson - Jeter - Tex - ARod - Dye - Cano - Posada - Johnson - Swisher

I know Granderson's OBP is not a great lead off candidate, and Jeter had an incredible year in lead off, but I think Granderson's talent gets minimized further down the lineup.

Please tell me why I'm wrong about Dye and an alternate solution.

The Mets are doing exactly what they should be - staying pat.  Let's face it this is a weak FA year and the Mets have a lot of question marks.  The best risk/reward decision for the Mets is to make minimal moves and hope that Beltran, Reyes and Wright come back to form.  Yes, they have a weak bottom of the lineup, but if we are honest the Mets are a long shot to compete this year.  Why add an overpriced, McReynolds-like Bay or Holliday to the mix?

I say just get DeRosa and a lefty RP. DeRosa provides a lot of flexibility and is a good clubhouse influence.  The Mets need a second lefty reliever and there are a couple that are reasonable and finally resign DelGado because the Mets need some lefty lineup balance.

With these moves the Mets could put out a decent lineup of:

Reyes, Murphy (2B / LF), Beltran, Wright, Delgado, Frenchy, DeRosa (LF / 2B), Santos

DeRosa could also play 1B in case Delgado has some injuries or the Mets need to give him a breather (figure he will play 100 to 120 games).  Maybe flip DeRosa and Murphy to get some more balance in the lineup.

The Mets bench would also be decent with: Castillo (S), Pagan (S), Blanco (R), Cora (L), Evans (R)

I think the Mets should back away from Bay.  It is a wrong move.  He is not a difference maker, the Mets cannot afford a large, long term contract and the Mets do not need another righty batter.  The Mets need flexibility this year.  2011's free agent market will be much better and there is a chance that a healthy Mets team could put in a decent showing.  I think they will not be able to contend with the Phils and Braves in 2010 because they just have too many question marks and not enough power, but here is what I think:

1) They should add Mark DeRosa (3yrs / $18 mil).  Total versatility here.  Keep Murphy at 1B and put DeRosa in 2B.  Or put him at OF?  Or put him at 1B.  Get it?  A great fit.

2) Forget Molina.  Stick with Santos and save the money.

3) Add a lefty RP.

SP: Santana, Pelfry, Maine, Perez, Niese,

RP: KRod, Igarashi, Nieve, Stokes, Parnell, Feliciano, lefty FA

Lineup: Reyes (S), DeRosa (R), Beltran (S), Wright (R), Frenchy (R), Murphy (L), Pagan (S), Santos (R) 

Bench: Castillo (S), Cora (L), Evans (R), Martinez (L), Blanco (R)

Giving up on the season too fast?

I really like what Cashman is doing this off season.  Hopefully, we does not screw it up by picking up Bay or Holliday.  He seems to be creating roster flexibility to feed in the young players and keeping payroll down.  I think taking a flier on Chapman would fit well with the strategy.

Supposedly, Chapman's stuff is fast but straight.  Possible high end bullpen instead of a SP?  Who knows.  But let's say the Yanks bring him in.  Now, the Yanks have a lot more flexibility.  The Mo countdown continues and the Yanks need to prepare a replacement.  By bringing in Chapman and slotting him as a SP initially (#5 guy) and keeping Hughes as the 8th inning guy, if Joba or Chapman struggle then you can flip flop.

Bringing in Chapman allows:

SP - CC, AJ, Pettitte, Joba (SP/RP), Chapman (SP/RP)  RP- Mo, Hughes (SP/RP), Marte, Robertson, Aceves (SP/RP), Brackman, Beimel (FA - lefty), Gaudin (SP/RP)

I understand Granderson is relatively weak against lefties, but why wouldn't the Yanks lead him off?  Jeter is not a lead off hitter.  He is a great #2 batter.  Having the first baseman holding Granderson on will just further increase Jeter's already legendary numbers.  I just do not see the benefits of having Granderson bat anywhere else.  Granted hitting 20 - 30 hrs is nice to have in the mid to lower part of the lineup, but we already have them down there.

Even if the Yanks sign Damon, I'm still thinking Granderson should lead off and Jeter bat second.

I still think the Yanks need a #5 hitter.

With the lack of OF free agents out there (I have no interest in Bay or Holliday), would it make any sense to move Cano to LF and sign Hudson or Polanco (I prefer Hudson due to switch hitter and two years younger) to play 2B?  Figure Hudson costs $4 million including incentives.  I still want to see the Yanks sign Ankiel. I think he would be a solid addition (great arm and has some pop for $3 million including incentives?).  These two signings provide the Yanks with an interesting lineup while saving significant payroll:

Jeter R- Hudson S- Tex S- A-Rod R- Posada S- Cano L- Swisher S- Ankiel L- Melky S

Maybe add Cameron or Byrd for $5 million to strengthen a bench of Gardner OF - Pena IF - Cervelli C?

Wrong to move Cano?

I posted this back in December 2008, but thought it appropriate to repost as ammunition for us Yankee fans.  Sports ownership is not a charity.  It is a business like any other and the Yankees make sound business decisions.  Period!  Now, go get #28!

So everyone is screaming about the Yankees' spending ways.  So I decided to take a look at how they rank against other clubs using the following methodology:

2008 Payroll divided by 2008 attendance divided by Cost of Living Index and the Yankees rank 22 at $22.70 per attendee.  Here are the numbers.  Am I wrong with this analysis?

So, I'm thinking do not bring back Damon or Matsui.  Save the $26 million, but pick up Bengie Molina for 2 years, $3 million each and make Posada the DH for 75% of the time.  Then add Ankiel ($2.5 million, 1yr + incentives) to play CF or LF.

Finally resign Pettitte and an incentive laden contract for either Bedard ($5 million + incentives) or Myers ($2 million + incentives)

Lineup of:  Jeter, Cano (fellow fans of this site convinced me this makes sense), Tex, ARod, Posada, Ankiel, Swisher, Molina, Melky

Rotation: CC, AJ, Pettitte, Bedard, Joba

Then in 2011: AJax moves into CF, Hughes in Rotation as Pettitte retires.

Start picking it apart...

So, with a great season behind the Yanks, meetings taking place this week and trades already completed, let's talk about the Yanks lineup next season.

Who is batting 5?  I do not trust Cano there and I think the Yanks need a lefty in that slot.  But who?  Matsui is just too much of a luxury.  I wish he could play the field somewhat, but he can't so I do not see how the Yanks pay him.  I'm assuming Damon gets resigned but he will bat 2nd again.  Nothing enlightening there.  No one on the farm for the 5th slot.  And the free agent market is horrible!

So, where does that leave the Yanks?  A trade?  But what do the Yanks have to trade?  Melky? Joba? Hughes?  Not much.  Unless Cano, but that does not accomplish a thing.  Cano is a solid 6 or 7 and maybe one day develops into a 5.

So, with all of the above what do the Yanks do?  I do not see a good solution.  Maybe just sign Damon, bring up AJax have him play CF, move Melky to LF and keep Swisher in RF?   Although not too excited about: Jeter, Damon, Tex, ARod, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Melky, AJax.  It is missing something.  Maybe add a Type B FA or do you think the Yanks are going after Holliday or Bay?  Seems like they may be forced to.

Incredible!  What an at-bat from Damon and great base running!  He deserves a thank you contract.

The Yanks are playing fantastic response ball.  They seem to get motivated when the Phils do something positive.

AJ should throw tomorrow.  No screwing around with Guadin.  Seal it now!  The Phils must be downtrodden and Lee will not duplicate his Game 1 performance.

Good to see Joba throwing hard again.  I blame to 1-2 slider call for the 3-2 gopher ball.  But that damn bat of Posada, just keeps making up for it.  Go Posada!

And finally, A-Rod.  Has he done enough to earn our admiration?  I think so.

I'm excited.  Just like in '96.

I think AJ did a great thing last night.  Really.  Because of his inexcusable pitching in the 7th, the Yankees now get to fill the Stadium for another two games (it is going seven) and the team makes another $5mm in profit from these two games.

Add this to the departing players and the Yankees have a nice war chest to spend: Matsui ($13mm) + Damon ($13mm) + Nady ($7mm) + AJ's contribution ($5mm) = $38mm.  Yum!  Yum!  I'll take a Holliday ($15mm) but who else?  Hmmm...

Thanks AJ.

What will it cost the Yanks to take a flier on Smoltz?  I know, I know.  He has been horrible.  This is simply a matter of risk / reward.  If it is relatively low cost then what is the risk?  He could be a decent #5 option (no worse than Mitre and maybe gets a shot in the arm playing in NY) or a good option in the pen.  The man can still throw and he has been a "warrior" for years.

If the Red Sox get Halladay the Yanks will be the second class citizens of the East for the next four years.  Cashman cannot let that happen.  Halladay is a franchise changer for either the Yanks or Red Sox.

I'm not saying I want the Yanks to get Halladay.  I think it will cost too much in youth.  So, I hope Halladay goes to the NL (Phils or Dodgers).  But if it looks like Halladay is going to the Red Sox then even if we have to give Joba or Hughes, Cashman has to pull the trigger.

So would you take Vernon Wells' horrible contract to get Halladay?  Could the Yanks get both Wells and Halladay and only give up Melky and a couple of mid-level prospects or servicable MLB players (maybe Kennedy and Aceves?) because the Yanks are taking one of the worst contracts in baseball?

Let's look at the numbers:

After '09 Yanks free up $31.55 million in OF payroll with Matsui, Damon and Nady gone.  The Yanks also free up $10.5 million in SP payroll with Pettitte and Wang gone.  So, there is a total of $42 million coming off after the 09 season.

Here are the added payroll costs with this possible move:

Halladay $15.75 million and Wells $12.5 million in 10 = $38.25 million

Halladay $22 million (prj extension) and Wells $23 million in 11 - $8 million (part of Toronto "eating" $40 million of Wells' salary as part of this trade) = $37 million

So, the Yanks actually reduce overall payroll with the trade and have an incredible rotation with flexibility of: CC, Halladay, AJ, Pettitte, Joba in 09, and slide Hughes in Pettitte's spot in 10.  Put Wells into RF, make Gardner the everyday CF, and Damon/Swisher share LF.  A lineup of Jeter, Damon, Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Wells, Posada, Matsui, Gardner in 09 and Jeter, Swisher, Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Wells, Posada, A-Jax, Gardner in 10 and beyond.

A horrible move?  Not really.  Now if the Yanks could get Rios instead of Wells with maybe only Melky and Hughes going I think I would prefer that.

What do you think?  Is this too unfair for the Jays?

Looking at the other teams, I think a trade for a temporary replacement to fill A-Rod's void will be very tough, but here are a couple of ideas:

Pirates - Jack Wilson (horrible contract, slides to 3B); Nate McLouth (who the Yanks love  but is another lefty hitter) for Hughes, Melky, Swisher (Yanks cover $3 million of salary) - this is effectively a way for Pirates to get rid of Wilson's salary and get MLB ready youth and a servicable player in Swisher

Arizona - Chad Tracy (another lefty) for Swisher (Yanks cover $3 million of salary) and Kennedy - another salary dump for Arizona.

Brewers - Bill Hall (yikes, those strikeouts) for Kennedy and Coke - salary dump

Orioles - this is a long shot - Mora for Kennedy and Melky (Pie who?)

A's - Nomar (no Crosby!) for Kennedy

My favorite possiblity is the Pirates, but I think we are looking at Ransom.

Comments.

As a Yankee fan, and more importantly a baseball fan, I am somewhat concerned about today and the remaining names on the "list".  I love this game and my fear is the possiblity that Jeter may have used.  We all know that he is the golden boy of baseball and what happens if he is on the list?

While Jeter's ABs per hits and RBIs are fairly consistent the ABs per HR appear strange.  I know there are a lot of quantitive bloggers here, any plausible explanations?