SB Nation User Blog: jri111

Russert Rememberd

jri111 — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 08:02:08 -0000

Russert Rememberd

Wilson, Brandon and Players Issued Subpoena

jri111 — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 23:25:03 -0000

Nick Mendola / Joe Buscaglia Reporting
nick@wgr550.com

http://wgr550.com/Wilson--Brandon-and-Players-Issued-Subpoena/2358285

The Buffalo News is reporting the police are expected to subpoena Bills owner Ralph Wilson, chief operating officer Russ Brandon along with three players among others to divulge their knowledge of the hit-and-run accident involving a vehicle registered to running back Marshawn Lynch's name.

The players are said to include rookie wideout's James Hardy and Steve Johnson, along with offensive lineman Christian Gaddis. Three other Bills executives will also be questioned.

Buffalo police officer Allan Kasprzak and three other officers arrived at One Bills Drive today at 2 pm looking for answers. Kasprzak were there for an hour and a half, investigating into the hit-and-run accident involving Marshawn Lynch's sport utility vehicle and a woman May 31 on Delaware Avenue.

Police conducted a probe of the accident that injured a 27-year old Ontario woman, and say they've received no cooperation from Lynch and little from his teammates, according to The Buffalo News.

"I expect [Bills players] to be cooperative and truthful,” Clark said before arriving. “If I get any indication that they are anything less than cooperative and truthful, I will go to the grand jury, which will compel them to testify.”

Lynch was on the practice field today but remained mum on the situation. After practice, Lynch walked past a wall of reporters ignoring them as he walked towards the locker room.

Bills Vice President of Communications Scott Berchtold met with the media after practice and commented on how the club has handled the ongoing investigation.

"We've cooperated fully and will continue to cooperate fully with the authorities."

The players were not quick to jump to any conclusions regarding Lynch, leaving questions to be answered by the coaching staff.

"That's nothing I think to do internally with the team. Thats something that the coaches are going to handle. I mean who really knows exactly what happened if you weren't there," said WR Josh Reed. "All I know is that he is coming out here and he's working 100 percent with the rest of us."

In other Bills news, Lee Evans, Jon Banks and Jason Peters were not in attendance at Thursday's minicamp. Evans prepared to practice but never made it to the field due to illness.

Head Coach Dick Jauron told the media after practice that the clubs final day of mini camp practice would be cancelled as a reward to the players for their hard work and strong attendance throughout OTA's and the mini-camp. Owner Ralph Wilson Jr. addressed the team this morning on the field but was not made available for comment.

Lee Evans discusses the Patriots, JP Losman, his relationship with Trent Edwards, and Lynch's all...

jri111 — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 19:24:20 -0000

Lee Evans discusses the Patriots, JP Losman, his relationship with Trent Edwards, and Lynch's alleged hit-and-run

Donte Whitner Expects Big Things From The Bills

jri111 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 21:05:46 -0000

Donte Whitner Expects Big Things From The Bills

Walsh’s tapes show that the Patriots recorded the signals of offensive and defensive coaches in r...

jri111 — Thu, 08 May 2008 02:24:54 -0000

Walsh’s tapes show that the Patriots recorded the signals of offensive and defensive coaches in regular-season games against the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills, the Cleveland Browns and the San Diego Chargers and against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2002 American Football Conference championship game. In that game, the tape has been edited to show Steelers coaches signaling plays, followed by two different camera angles of the actual plays that were called.

The New York Times reports that Walsh handed over eight tapes in total. There was no evidence that the Patriots taped the Rams walk through practice before the Super Bowl.

Trading down and grabbing McKelvin too?

jri111 — Thu, 01 May 2008 02:49:38 -0000

First, I would like to preface this by saying that I liked the McKelvin pick. This “fan post” is not intended to bash the front office. This is something that I have thought about since the draft and have not had the time to write it up and post it until now.

The question is: Could Buffalo have traded back and still have gotten McKelvin?

I think the answer may have been yes. Buffalo picked at 11. The teams that picked 12-14 were the Broncos, Panthers, and Bears. None of those teams needed a CB. It just wasn’t going to happen. Neither did Detroit at 15 (the subsequently traded out of their pick w/ KC, see below).

Arizona at 16 had a pressing need for CB and took my personal favorite (insert sarcasm here) DRC. The Chiefs originally has the 17th pick and they traded up to 15 to grab o-lineman Brandon Albert. The Chiefs actually vastly overpaid the Lions to move up those two spots by giving them a third AND a fifth. Those two picks, along with the 17th overall pick actually adds up to about the value of the 11th overall selection, not the 15th.

So what do we know?

1. We know that of the 6 teams picking between 12-17, four of them absolutely were not taking CBs in round 1, one desperately needed a CB and the other was targeting O-line.

2. We know that the Bills did have a trade partner in KC and that they could have at least gotten an extra 3rd and 5th round pick out of the trade down.

So what don't we know?

1. Whether McKelvin was the first CB on Arizona’s board.

2. Who Buffalo’s second rated CB was (DRC?) and how much lower of a rating did he have as opposed to McKelvin

3. Whether another team (like the Eagles) would have been tempted to trade past Buffalo at 17 if McKelvin started to fall into the mid-teens.

Since we don’t know the answer to these questions it’s hard to make a determination on whether the Bills should have traded down or not. I am less risk-adverse that the current regime though, so I would have traded down and taken my chances. At the very least the Bills would have gotten the second CB on their board. They even had the option of grabbing their top rated WR (Devin Thomas presumably) at 17 if the CB they wanted was not there.

Poll

Presuming that the Bills could have added an additional 3rd and 5th round draft pick by trading down to number 17 overall, What should the Bills have done?

Leodis McKelvin seems like the "it" pick of the moment for the Bills. Here's a look at possibly ...

jri111 — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 04:33:40 -0000

Leodis McKelvin seems like the "it" pick of the moment for the Bills. Here's a look at possibly the newest Bill...

Kansas City: The Perfect Trade Partner?

jri111 — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:49:56 -0000

I stated earlier this week that I cannot remember a time where trading down has been more prevelant. Of course, if the Bills wish to trade down, they will need to find a trade partner. Kansas City obtained the #17 pick via the Jarad Allen trade earlier this week, could they be the perfect trade partner for Buffalo?

It Started with a Highway Robbery

The Jarad Allen trade was ridiculous, any way you look at it. $70+ million contract ?! $30 million in guarantees?! Giving up a first, and two third round picks?! Like I said, ridiculous!

How would you like to have KC's draft picks? Thirteen overall pick, including two first round picks, three third round picks, and six in the top 100 selections. Talk about ammo!

And to top it off, I think the Chiefs have a real possibility of landing arguably the best player in the draft to replace Jarad Allen: Chris Long. How? Well the other Long is already a Dolphin and it looks more and more like Dorsey will be a Ram. Atlanta will either go Ellis, Ryan, or McFadden. Oakland is will either go with Gholston or McFadden. That would leave KC with Allen's replacement AND still 12 more picks, including the 17th overall pick! Crazy! If I were a Chief fan, I would be giving a thousand thanks to the Vikings organization.

Here are Kansas City's picks and their "value":

5th overall (1st round) - 1,700
17th overall (1st round) - 950
35th overall (2nd round) - 550
66th overall (3rd round) - 260
73rd overall (3rd round) - 225
82nd overall (3rd round) - 180
105th overall (4th round) - 84
136th overall (5th round) - 38
140th overall (5th round) - 36
170th overall (6th round) – 23.4
187th overall (6th round) – 16.6
210th overall (7th round) – 7.4
239th overall (7th round) - 0

Is a Trade Likely?

From John Clayton over at espn.com:

Trading places: Expect the Chiefs to actively shop for a trade that could put them into the top 12 of the draft in order to get one of the top offensive linemen. One possible trade partner could be the Buffalo Bills. With the 11th pick, the Bills are looking at wide receiver Devin Thomas and one of the three top small-college cornerbacks. By moving back, the Bills could maybe pick up a third-round pick and still have a choice of one cornerback and possibly Thomas.

The Thomas interest aside (I think they are targeting McKlevin at 11), I think the Bills trading down with KC makes perfect sense for both teams. KC's biggest need is offensive tackle – it was before the Allen trade – and it remains their biggest need after the trade. Kansas City cannot pass on a guy like Chris Long though, and there really are not any offensive tackles worth the 5th overall pick (with Jake Long off the board). The next tier of OTs (Albert, Otah, Clady, and Williams) have a good chance of being gone by the time the Chiefs pick at 17. The Chiefs have more then enough picks (13) to be able to trade up and not lose much. It goes without saying that the Bills have all the incentive in the world to trade down and trading down to 17 would still give them a chance at one of the top CBs and probably the top WR on the board.

According to the original trade value chart Buffalo's 11th pick is worth 1250 points and Kansas City's 950 points, a difference of 300. Looking at the point values above, you can obvious see any number of possible pick combinations to get to 300. Buffalo could easily get a high 3rd AND 5th round pick for the number 11 overall selection from Kansas City. My favorite combination: the 66th overall pick (3rd pick in the third round) + 136th pick (the 1st pick in the fifth round) for the 11th pick.

Bills Draft Board/Strategy

jri111 — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 18:33:15 -0000

PART I: THE DRAFT BOARD

Note: This is a post that is based on Brian's front page story. I was going to post it as a reply, however, it got too long. What follows below is how I believe the Bills draft strategy is unfolding:

Well I attempted to do an "overall" list, however, I realized I couldn't do that until I ranked the players by position, so here are my positional rankings, the way I think the Bills have it (first round grades only):

The positional orders are based on need (i.e. WR is first on the list because that is the biggest need. CB follows that, and so on...)

WR:

Devin Thomas
Malcolm Kelly
James Hardy
Limas Sweed

CB:

Leodis McKlevin
Antoine Cason
Brandon Flowers
Mike Jenkins
Aquib Talib
DRC

TE:
There are no tight ends with a 1st round grades (have Bennett rated highest however)

C:
There are no centers with a first round grade

FB:
There are no fullbacks with a 1st round grades

DE:

Chris Long
Vernon Gholston
Derrick Harvey
Phillip Merling

DT:

Sedrick Ellis
Glenn Dorsey

S:
1. Kenny Phillips

LB:

Keith Rivers (devalue)
Jerod Mayo (devalue)

G/T:

Jake Long
Brandon Albert (devalue)
Ryan Clady (devalue)
Jeff Otah (devalue)
Chris Williams (devalue)
Gosder Cherilus (devalue)

QB:
1. Matt Ryan

RB:

Darren McFadden
Rashard Mendenhall
Jonathan Stewart

So from those positional lists, when I put my board together, I am going to eliminate Chris Long (DE), Vernon Gholston (DE), and Jake Long (OT) because I believe they all have the slightest chance to fall to the Bills at 11. I am also eliminating all of the QB's and RB's because they are positions of no need (at least at the top end of the draft), so Matt Ryan (QB), Darren McFadden (RB), Rasheed Mendenhall (RB), and Jonathan Stewart (RB) are gone as well. I am not "eliminating" the G/T or the LBs but I am "devaluing" them because of need. I don't see Buffalo taking guys at these positions in the first round, unless the value greatly outweighs anything else. So with that, here is my "overall" list:

Sedrick Ellis - DT
Glen Dorsey - DT
Leodis McClevin - CB
Derrick Harvey - DE
Antoine Cason - CB
Devin Thomas - WR
Brandon Flowers - CB
Brandon Albert - G/T
Keith Rivers - LB
Ryan Clady - OT

Click the "read more" to see Part II - Draft Strategy

PART II: DRAFT STRATEGY

First, lets look at two of the more interesting comments that caught my ear from Modrak yesterday over at Buffalobills.com:

"We've done our studies and history has said that over time," said Modrak. "All of us have broken ranks on those things. Part of it is picking 11th, a point where there's enough guys coming off the board that it's not slam dunk wherever you're going. There is consideration what you can pick up next time around and not be isolated, and ask, 'What's better for us now and what's better for us in a little while?'"

And though the Bills draft board at this point isn't complete, they will have a definitive course of action with just a few candidates pegged for number 11.

"In reality, our pick is pretty well established in that we have the tight shot circle of the people we're looking at," said Modrak. "If they all came off the board then you're into a little bit more of discussion."

He also said that CB has good depth, but that's one of those positions where one of them comes off the board and then a run starts and all of a sudden the depth is gone.

So what do I infer from all of this? Well the draft board above I think exemplifies nicely. Although Ellis and Dorsey are top of the list, they both very easily could have gone in the "Long-Long-Gholston" category of too remote to consider. After that is McKlevin. He fits a position of need and would be the next highest player on the Bills board. We can consider him "Plan A." At this time, though, he probably has about a 35-40% chance of being their when the Bills pick, so having a solid Plan B is important.

Here's where I think it gets interesting. The next four guys on the board or Harvey, Cason, Thomas, and Flower at 4-7, respectfully. First off, I think these four guys, along with McKlevin make up the "tight" circle that Modrak is talking about. Secondly, if the Bills stayed true to their board, then they would take Harvey. Well we all know how I feel about DE in round 1, and it obviously ignores two important positions of need (CB and WR), which happened to be represented by players directly below Harvey on the board (Cason and Thomas). So the question becomes: Do the Bills draft by the board, or do they by-pass Harvey and go with Thomas or Cason?

But it's not just a simple "pick one or the other" question. The Bills also have to think about (1) the value of the pick, (2) the depth of the position, and somewhat related, (3) which players will be available in later rounds, (4) the teams drafting around you, and of course,(5)overall team needs/shape of current roster.

First, value. Well we already established that Harvey would be the best value according to the board. But Thomas and Cason are a close second and third. So, although Harvey has the edge, it's not a drastic separating factor.

Second, depth (in terms of the draft class). Another one that works in favor of Harvey. DE depth, compared to WR and CB depth is very weak. So if Buffalo really wants a blue-chip DE, they will have to Harvey, because one will not be available by the time the Bills pick again at #42. CB has good depth, however, like Modrak said, once the run on good DBs starts, the good depth quickly disappears. WR is not top-end heavy, but has decent depth. Of course, it is also the team's clear-cut, most pressing need, so even though the depth is there, getting the top guy on your board at that position becomes much more necessary.

Third, which players will be available in the later rounds. In relation to depth, Harvey wins out here because the DE's in the later rounds don't hold up to the CBs and WRs. CB's that could be available in round 2 or 3 include Flowers, Branch, King, etc. WR's that could be available in round 2 include Kelly, Hardy, Nelson, etc. Out of all of the positions, WR has the best chance of having the best players available in round 2. I think Flowers will be gone and up until a week ago, Kelly was the Bills favorite.

Fourth, taking into account the teams drafting around you and their needs. Lets look first at DE and Harvey. If Harvey is there when the Bills pick at 11 and they pass on him, he will likely go within the next 4 picks. Detroit at 15 has expressed interest in him and he'd likely not slide past them. So if the Bills want Harvey, they would have to take him at 11. As for Thomas and Cason, the issue is not so clear. Teams directly below Buffalo are not in desperate needs of WRs or CBs. You have to go to the late teens to start finding teams that could be interested. However, with CB, you also have to consider the teams in front of you. There is a good chance by the time that Bills pick at 11, two CBs will already be off the board. This of course, depletes the overall depth, and makes a team more apt to grab one of the top guys now, instead of waiting.

Lastly, you have to look at overall team needs and the shape of the roster (and salaries). This is where it hurts Harvey the most. Out of the three positions, DE has the most talent, depth, and financial investment. In addition, the hole at WR is so large, that it becomes even more of a need. The depth is better at CB, but it appears the front office feels that the top end talent can be better. If the Bills take Harvey in round 1, they would have to deal with the consequences of obtaining lesser talent to fill these holes.

So what does all this mean, overall? All three players offer something the others don't: Harvey-value, Cason - need/value, Thomas - major need. However, when taking everything into consideration (including the knowledge that the Bills were high on Kelly pre-workout), I think the Bills pass on WR in round 1 with the hopes of trading back up to grab Kelly or having him fall to them at #42. So that leaves "plan B" down between Harvey and Cason and all the factors leave me to think that this is going to be a hard decision for the organization and one that might tilt on some draft day action. The Bills will go into draft day with one above the other, that's for certain. However, I do think they will be flexible. For example: If they decide Harvey will be their "Plan B," they only do so with a caveat. Knowing the team needs, if another team like Detroit or Philly offer a good deal to trade down, the additional 2nd or 3rd round pick the Bills could get for trading down, may ultimately put Cason above Harvey in terms of value, even though he didn't start out there.

Here's my guess on how the Bills draft plan looks:

Plan A: McKlevin at 11 if he's there

Plan B: If McKlevin is gone, the Bills will fish around for trade partners. If they find one, they will trade down to the mid- to late teens and grab the best CB available, whether that be Cason or Flowers.

Plan C: If the Bills fail to find a trading partner, they will take Harvey at 11, if Harvey is gone at 11, they will take Cason.

Note: of course, they very well could have either Harvey rated clearly above Cason or vice versa. If that is the case, then Plan B just reverts to picking one or the other. Of course, if it's Cason, I think they will entertain trade offers, because taking him at 11. If it's Harvey, they will just take him at 11.

Reopening the WR Trade Market?

jri111 — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:26:15 -0000

[editor's note, by Brian Galliford] Bumped from the diaries. Excellent points brought up as usual by jri111. End Note

From Saturday's Buffalo News:

Give us your thoughts on our Buffalo Bills pick -- Tennessee State CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. You might be surprised I didn't give the Bills a wide receiver. Don't be. Word is the Bills don't have a receiver rated high enough to warrant the 11th overall selection. I sense that the Bills might try to trade for a veteran wideout before the draft.

There are two major roadblocks to such a thought, however. First, the WR trade market is nearly non-existent. Other teams like Philly have tried unsuccessfully to trade for big names such as Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgerald without much luck, and there is little chance that other teams would have better luck. Second, issue of money. Money, of course is always a concern when it involves the Bills. Any WR Buffalo trades for would most likely require a large contract. That's hard to justify when your own star receiver is entering his contract year without a new deal. So why am I wasting my time with this if it can't be done? Because it can be done.

Of course, it would not be easy. Buffalo would simply have to "make an offer they can't refuse" to teams such as Detroit or Arizona for the likes of Roy Williams or Anquan Boldin. What is that offer? Well, most players are not traded for very high draft picks anymore because of the overly large contracts. The highest draft pick given up is usually a second rounder or some combination of a second round pick and a later or future pick. So to get over this, Buffalo would have to offer a higher pick than normal: how's the 11th overall pick sound? They would also have to pony up the big money for whoever they trade for. That's a lot to give up. Many would say too much. I would say they were wrong.

Buffalo is a a young team with some vets entering the prime of their careers (Evans, McGee, Crowell, etc.). Their window is starting to open. However, in today's NFL, the window is smaller than ever. Can the Bills afford to wait three seasons for a guy like Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly to develop into the receiver they need to be successful? With the exception of CB, the defense is in place. A young QB with potential is entering his second year in the league and a star running back is about to be born. They have one star WR locked up for at least two more seasons (considering the franchise tag) and are one or two weapons away on offense from having a contender.

So why not? Trade the 11th pick! We all agree that there is not good value for Buffalo there anyways. Turn it into value. Pay the money. And reap the rewards. If the Bills want to pro actively get better, they may have to look at other ways of doing so at the WR position aside from the draft. The trade market is currently non-existent for wideouts. If they want it, they'll have to create it. They create a market by making a hard and solid offer. Make teams like Detroit or Arizona at least think long and hard about it before they reject it.

The Bills are in a quandary at the 11th pick this year. They have a dire need at WR, but no player worth taking at that pick. The worst thing about this, however, is not the value of the players - that can be argued - it's the overall talent. The top end talent is just not there and taking one of those players would require taking on a lot of question marks. Admittedly, this is a far reaching and fantastical idea. However, sometimes it requires great ideas to achieve great things. We all dream of the Bills achieving great things. They now need a great idea to get them there.