SBNation.com User Blog: jroman

Prospect Wayback Machine

jroman — Thu, 16 May 2013 00:31:35 -0000

Here's the pitchers from Tuesday night's game:

St. Louis	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR
Gast(W, 1-0)	6.0	6	4	4	1	3	1
Maness	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Martinez, C	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	0
Kelly, J	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0

Starter John Gast was pitching for Palm Beach in High-A as a 22 year old in 2011. Azruavatar considered him a "breakout candidate" in March of 2011 after his improved control in Batavia after being drafted, which he did not exhibit in Florida State. And Azruavatar was way right. Pat yourself on the back, sir! However to one up Azru, in January of 2011, I considered Gast as one of my "poised for a breakout" players.

On May 10th, Gast pitched 7 innings, getting the win while striking out 4 and walking 2.

Seth Maness wasn't yet even on the Cardinals at this time in 2011 because he was picked in the 11th round of the draft in June, but he started in Batavia and quickly was moved up to Quad Cities and then Palm Beach during that summer. Azru didn't have much on Maness when he was drafted as a senior out of East Carolina.

Two years ago, Carlos Martinez was in his age 19 season in Quad Cities and I was able to catch Martinez in action in May of 2011 pitching for the Quad Cities River Bandits at Busch Stadium. Here's the video of Martinez and two other pitchers. In February, Joe Strauss of the P-D wrote up about the Cardinals getting the first good look at Martinez in a Cardinals uniform at Spring Training.

Martinez is among a vanguard of young arms the club believes represents a transformational presence within a system rated thin on high-ceiling starting pitchers at Double-A and Triple-A. Martinez threw alongside supplemental round draft choice Seth Blair. Another supplemental pick, Tyrell Jenkins, is scheduled to throw Sunday.Martinez's fastball 'sits" in the mid-90s, with the ability to touch 98-99 miles per hour.

The next and last pitcher in the game was Joe Kelly. The scouting report on Kelly was: "Lively arm, 92-94 MPH with good sink, 87-88 MPH power slider." Out of UC Riverside he was projected as a closer-type, but the Cardinals continued to use him as a starter in the minor leagues including in 2011 when he was starting in Palm Beach early in the season before being promoted to Springfield.

The Cardinals are blessed with a farm system that is not only high on top-end impact talent, but also mid range depth. And we have not yet seen half of it yet, including the best hitting prospect and several more high end pitching talents almost ready for the major leagues. The Cardinals at this point may not have to sign a free agent in the next few offseasons. With 2 more 1st round picks, the Cardinals are showing no sign of slowing down.

Additionally, just to prove this just wasn't a one game blip, Wednesday's game featured 3 of 5 Future Redbirds in Shelby Miller, Maness and Trevor Rosenthal. We can see the top of the hill with the talent that the Cardinals have assembled in the minor leagues, but we are still a ways to go until all the young players are playing at their peak.

Is Jake Lemmerman More Than Just Another Guy?

jroman — Mon, 06 May 2013 20:08:27 -0000

The Cardinals acquired Jake Lemmerman during the offseason for internet punching bag and talk radio superstar Skip Schumaker. Lemmerman was instantly compared to Pete Kozma and even Skip Schumaker himself before he even hit the field for the Cardinals. Lemmerman is on his third tour of duty at the double-A level, but obviously his first in Springfield.

The 24 year old has started hot in Springfield and being just above the average age for players in double-A, he's not terribly old for the league despite 3 years running in the league. Let's start with the good, he can play shortstop, he has been described as "reliable" and "consistent". Those are great traits to have, but he's not really jumping off the screen with those adjectives. So far this season, he has his best OPS at AA at .775 and average at .266, which is helped by a BABIP of .375. That BABIP is high, but a 20% LD rate indicates that he's making solid contact. He's always been able to get on base and his .370 OBP looks sustainable as a 70-90 point level over his batting average.

However, a player like Lemmerman really needs to eliminate the strikeouts as much as possible. He's striking out 22.8% of his plate appearances. Additional bad news, for Lemmerman is that he is blocked by one, possibly two players at Memphis. Greg Garcia is certainly a better prospect than he is at this point, and Ryan Jackson is most likely a better defender (although I'm not sure where the club stands on that one right now to be honest.).

I'm going to qualify the question in the headline here as I don't think Lemmerman's "Just Another Guy" as he should be at least a solid defender at short and a major league utility guy within 3 years, however with the Cardinals stacked farm system, he IS just another guy in the middle infield because they have more talented players ahead of him in the pipeline. His acquisition seemed like the Cardinals shedding Schumaker and receiving a player who could fit in their pipeline between Garcia ahead of him and Ronny Gil and Alex Mejia behind him. The fact that the Cardinals have the luxury of a double-A shortstop that has an OPS of .775 as an "Org Guy", is yet another fantastic sign of the health of their system.

Classifying Cardinals Prospects By Age

jroman — Thu, 02 May 2013 15:33:19 -0000

I'm piggy-backing off the research done by Fangraphs and Noah Isaacs last year. I'm assuming the age averages will stay roughly the same from year to year. Let's take a look at each team and see where the players land with regards to age. There are four different classifications:

Elite Prospect for those who are below or equal to the bold diagonal lines on Noah's graph.

Below Average age for those who are below the average age for their level. (For AAA, which average age trends way older, I included the caveat on which prospects are also above or below the average major league rookie age of 24.5.)

Above Average Age for those who are above the average age for their level.

And lastly, the "Non Prospect - Old for League" players.

(Spoiler alert, one surprise among the Elite Prospect labels is Adam Ehrlich who was moved up from Extended Spring Training to Palm Beach for 2-3 nights before a few players were ready to come off the DL. Probably safe to discard him as an outlier.)

Memphis

Name	Age	Tm	Notes
Oscar Taveras	21	MEM	Elite Prospect
Michael Wacha	21.92	MEM	Elite Prospect
Kolten Wong	22.67	MEM	Elite Prospect
Greg Garcia	23.83	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
Maikel Cleto	24.08	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
John Gast	24.33	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
Eduardo Sanchez	24.33	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
John Gast	24.33	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
Keith Butler	24.42	MEM	Below average for league and below average rookie age
Michael Maness	24.67	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Ryan Jackson	25.08	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Tyler Lyons	25.33	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Jorge Rondon	25.33	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Tyler Lyons	25.33	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Vance Albitz	25.42	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Eric Fornataro	25.42	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Travis Tartamella	25.5	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Nick Additon	25.5	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Nick Greenwood	25.75	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Jermaine Curtis	25.92	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Samuel Freeman	26	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Adron Chambers	26.67	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Jamie Romak	27.75	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Marc Rzepczynski	27.83	MEM	Below Average Age for League, but above average rookie age
Chad Huffman	28.17	MEM	Non Prospect - Old for League
Barret Browning	28.5	MEM	Non Prospect - Old for League
J.R. Towles	29.33	MEM	Non Prospect - Old for League
Brock Peterson	29.58	MEM	Non Prospect - Old for League

Springfield

Name	Age	Tm	Notes
Carlos Martinez	21.75	SPR	Elite Prospect
Luis Mateo	23.08	SPR	Below Average for League
Juan Castillo	23.5	SPR	Below Average for League
Starlin Rodriguez	23.5	SPR	Below Average for League
Richard Castillo	23.67	SPR	Below Average for League
Anthony Ferrara	23.75	SPR	Below Average for League
Justin Wright	23.83	SPR	Above Average for League
Boone Whiting	23.83	SPR	Above Average for League
Kevin Siegrist	23.92	SPR	Above Average for League
Deryk Hooker	24	SPR	Above Average for League
Dean Kiekhefer	24	SPR	Above Average for League
Jake Lemmerman	24.08	SPR	Above Average for League
Seth Blair	24.25	SPR	Above Average for League
Michael Blazek	24.25	SPR	Above Average for League
Neal Pritchard	24.33	SPR	Above Average for League
Audry Perez	24.5	SPR	Above Average for League
Thomas Pham	25.25	SPR	Above Average for League
Mike O'Neill	25.33	SPR	Above Average for League
Adam Melker	25.42	SPR	Above Average for League
Xavier Scruggs	25.75	SPR	Above Average for League
Scott McGregor	26.5	SPR	Non Prospect - Old for League
Ramon Delgado	26.75	SPR	Non Prospect - Old for League
Chris Swauger	26.83	SPR	Non Prospect - Old for League
Kevin Thomas	26.92	SPR	Non Prospect - Old for League
Ruben Gotay	30.5	SPR	Non Prospect - Old for League

Palm Beach

Name	Age	Tm	Notes
Adam Ehrlich	20.5	PMB	Elite Prospect? (see notation above)
Anthony Garcia	21.42	PMB	Below Average for League
Jesus Montero	22	PMB	Below Average for League
Stephen Piscotty	22.42	PMB	Above Average for League
Tim Cooney	22.5	PMB	Above Average for League
Danny Miranda	22.83	PMB	Above Average for League
Samuel Gaviglio	23.08	PMB	Above Average for League
Lee Stoppelman	23.08	PMB	Above Average for League
Travis Miller	23.25	PMB	Above Average for League
Ronald Shaban	23.25	PMB	Above Average for League
Tyler Rahmatulla	23.33	PMB	Above Average for League
Jonathan Keener	23.5	PMB	Above Average for League
James Ramsey	23.5	PMB	Above Average for League
David Popkins	23.58	PMB	Above Average for League
Colin Walsh	23.75	PMB	Above Average for League
Jonathan Rodriguez	23.83	PMB	Above Average for League
Matthew Williams	23.83	PMB	Above Average for League
Kyle Hald	24.08	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Iden Nazario	24.25	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Ronny Gil	24.25	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Daniel Stienstra	24.25	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Brandon Creath	24.33	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Nicholas Longmire	24.42	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Jose Almarante	24.5	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Cody Stanley	24.5	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Jimmy Parque	24.67	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Tyler Melling	24.75	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Heath Wyatt	24.83	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Jonathan Cornelius	25.08	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Aidan Lucas	25.17	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Geoffrey Klein	25.25	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Chris Corrigan	25.5	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League
Scott Gorgen	26.42	PMB	Non Prospect - Old for League

Peoria

Name	Age	Tm	Notes
Carson Kelly	18.92	PEO	Elite Prospect
C.J. McElroy	20.08	PEO	Below Average for League
Charlie Tilson	20.5	PEO	Below Average for League
Dixon Llorens	20.58	PEO	Below Average for League
Breyvic Valera	20.83	PEO	Below Average for League
Tyrell Jenkins	20.92	PEO	Below Average for League
Jhonny Polanco	21.17	PEO	Below Average for League
Gerwuins Velazco	21.67	PEO	Above Average for League
Patrick Wisdom	21.83	PEO	Above Average for League
Ildemaro Vargas	21.92	PEO	Above Average for League
Hector Hernandez	22.33	PEO	Above Average for League
Kurt Heyer	22.42	PEO	Above Average for League
Alex Mejia	22.42	PEO	Above Average for League
Joshua Lucas	22.58	PEO	Above Average for League
David Washington	22.58	PEO	Above Average for League
Steven Ramos	22.92	PEO	Above Average for League
Jacob Wilson	22.92	PEO	Above Average for League
Nicholas Martini	23	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Kyle Helisek	23.17	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Jordan Rasmus	23.25	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Jordan Walton	23.25	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Joseph Scanio	23.42	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Dail Villanueva	23.42	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Corey Baker	23.58	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Michael Aldrete	23.75	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Joe Cuda	23.75	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Michael Swinson	23.75	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Zachary Petrick	23.92	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League
Joseph Donofrio	24.08	PEO	Non Prospect - Old for League

Other Under The Radar Bullpen Candidates

jroman — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:25:58 -0000

Carlos Martinez - RHP - The rumors were getting hot and heavy that before Maness' call up, Martinez might be the next Cardinals pitcher to go right from double-A to the majors. Martinez 2013 season was delayed by visa issues getting out of the Dominican and getting back into the US, otherwise, he likely would have been the call. His high 90s arsenal has a lot of scouts and evaluators counting the days until the Cardinals can find a place for him in St. Louis. He should be moved up to triple-A soon and probably into St. Louis before the season is over.

Jorge Rondon - RHP - Rondon is already on the 40-man roster as the Cardinals protected him from the Rule 5 draft last offseason. Andy wrote up the hard-throwing righty last year. He can throw hard and strike guys out. He's got the perfect bullpen profile for the Cardinals.

John Gast - LHP - Gast and Tyler Lyons make up the (near) future of the Cardinals left-handed pitcher pipeline, which has been quite dry of late. He's been the Memphis Redbirds best starting pitcher so far in 2013. He's not yet on the 40 man roster, but that can be dealt with obviously. His career FIP against lefthanders is 3.75, which is just .35 lower than his number against righthanders. And of course, he still has that killer pickoff move if he allows a baserunner to first.

Tyler Lyons - LHP - The other head of the two headed Memphis southpaw snake (well, five-headed if you count Additon, Browning and Freeman too!) is the more polished lefty specialist option, as he has struck out a quarter of the lefthanders he has faced in his minor league career and had a career 3.48 FIP against lefthanders. Strikeouts are king in the bullpen and Lyons brings them in spades.

Keith Butler - RHP - Butler already has made one move this year, from double-A Springfield to triple-A Memphis as he went from the Springfield closers job to the Memphis bullpen. He'll make a bullpen in the majors at some point, but he's behind a lot of other names right now.

Victor Marte - RHP - Just. Say. No.

Cape Cod League 2012 Pitchers

jroman — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 15:18:41 -0000

Here are the top six pitchers by ERA in the Cape Cod League in 2012:

	Team	G	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA
Blair, A	YD	8	6	38.1	27	5	12	44	1.17
Manaea, S	HYA	9	8	51.2	21	7	7	85	1.22
Reed, A	HAR	7	7	36.2	42	9	7	38	2.21
Connolly, R	COT	23	0	51.1	38	13	15	56	2.28
Windle, T	BRE	7	7	38.1	29	10	7	47	2.35
Schlitter, C	FAL	8	7	43.0	36	13	8	41	2.72

Aaron Blair - RHP, is a draft eligible junior out of Marshall University. He's a 4 pitch pitcher who can touch 97 MPH. He's a big arm who saved his best work for the Cape Cod league. He would be a prototypical Cardinals selection. Seems like a late 1st, early 2nd round selection.

Sean Manaea - LHP, is a draft eligible junior of of Indiana University. He's awesome, lefthanded and pitched amazingly on the cape. Forget about him, Cardinals fans, he's going in the top 5-10 in the 2012 draft.

AJ Reed - LHP, is a sophomore and a 2014 draft prospect out of University of Kentucky.

Ryan Connolly - RHP, is a bullpen specialist, a senior of out Coastal Carolina University. He's a submarine pitcher. I want the Cardinals to draft him in the 3-10 rounds as a senior sign just because I'd (selfishly) love to have a submariner in the Cardinals organization.

Tom Windle - LHP, is a draft eligible Junior out of the University of Minnesota. He looks to be a late 1st round prospect. Minor League Ball has a scouting report on him, but he only started 4 games for Minnesota in 2012, so we will see which teams project him as a starter and draft him in the first round accordingly.

Craig Schlitter - RHP, is a draft eligible Junior out of Bryant University. Bryant is a small school, however it just made the jump to Division I. On the Cape, "the league's hitters have carried an OPS+ of roughly 48; they been 52% worse than average when forced to face him. On a similar note, Schlitter's ERA+ is approximately 301, or 301% better than league average." His twitter handle of @imtheschlitt is a fantastic embrace of his potentially awkward last name. Seems like a good under the radar selection, but with such a good performance on the Cape, he will not be under the radar for long.

Cape Cod League 2012 Hitters

jroman — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 16:14:46 -0000

Two charts: First the leaders in Slugging and then On-base. (I wanted to just do OPS, but the Cape site wasn't as friendly when sorting by OPS). Players in italics appear in both lists.

Slugging:

Player	Team	P	AVG	OPS	SLG	OBP
*Horan, T*	WAR	3B	.342	1.127	.717	.410
Aldrich, D	COT	OF	.350	1.04	.658	.382
*Ervin, P*	HAR	OF	.323	1.06	.631	.429
Jagielo, E	HAR	OF	.291	.963	.589	.374
*Kemp, T*	COT	OF	.343	1.072	.583	.489
Robbins, M	BOU	OF	.316	.946	.581	.365
*Schwarber, K*	WAR	OF	.343	.996	.564	.432
*Knapp, A*	CHA	C	.293	.971	.557	.414
Gregor, C	ORL	IF	.329	1.016	.550	.466
Dosch, D	FAL	IF	.326	.914	.537	.377

On Base:

Player	Team	P	AVG	OPS	SLG	OBP
*Kemp, T*	COT	OF	.343	1.072	.583	.489
Biondi, P	COT	OF	.388	.926	.448	.478
Gregor, C	ORL	IF	.329	1.016	.550	.466
*Schwarber, K*	WAR	OF	.343	.996	.564	.432
*Ervin, P*	HAR	OF	.323	1.06	.631	.429
Blair, Z	YD	SS	.338	.854	.426	.428
Travis, S	YD	3B	.339	.897	.482	.415
*Knapp, A*	CHA	C	.293	.971	.557	.414
Pehl, R	YD	2B	.329	.933	.519	.414
*Horan, T*	WAR	3B	.342	1.127	.717	.410

Let's take a look at the five names that show up on both lists:

Tyler Horan - 3B, is a draft eligible redshirt junior from Virginia Tech. He seems like a Matt Adams-type with big power (lead the Cape Cod League with .375 Isolated Power) and good on base percentage from the right side. The scouting reports indicate that he has the ability to end up in the corner outfield despite playing 3B on the Cape.

Phi Ervin - OF, is a draft eligible junior from Samford University. He showed power in the Cape league with isolated power of .308, good for 2nd in the league. Minor League Ball profiled him and his smooth swing from the right side in February.

Tony Kemp - OF, is a draft eligible junior from Vanderbilt University. The Cape Cod site has him playing outfield, but he was converted to 2B at Vanderbilt (sounds like he's already ready for the Cardinals!). He is more of an on-base and speed type player, but showed a little pop in the Cape Cod League. He had 18 stolen bases in 35 games on the Cape. The CF/2B tweener showing speed and power in the Cape Cod League sure sounds like a Cardinals-type pick to me.

Kyle Schwarber - OF, is a non-draft eligible sophomore from Indiana. I'm sure we will circle back to him in 2014.

Andrew Knapp - C, is a draft eligible Junior from the University of California Berkley. Knapp is a switch-hitting catcher who hit for power and average in the Cape Cod League with wooden bats. Enough said. The Cardinals should be interested in this guy without a doubt and he shouldn't be waiting very long for his name to be called. He might be an easier sign than most juniors because the Cal baseball team was almost disbanded before last season.

Is The Light Coming On For Tommy Pham?

jroman — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 16:38:43 -0000

Tommy Pham is an enigma. He's a toolshed of an outfielder. He can play center, he can steal bases and he can hit for occasional power. But, he can't stay healthy and he hasn't yet put all of his tools together into true production and has shown only flashes of what he is capable of. This year might just be that year where Pham combines his tools and can stay healthy for a full season.

Tommy Pham is already 25, but he has been in the Cardinals system for what seems like an eternity since the Cardinals drafted him out of high school as a shortstop/pitcher in the 16th round all the way back in 2006. If anything, that is a testament to Pham's determination and his talent as plenty of players the Cardinals drafted in 2006 have washed out already. To put how long ago this draft was in perspective, the best Cardinals draftees from that draft are Chris Perez, Jon Jay, Allen Craig and Luke Gregerson.

Pham did not really jump onto the map until 2010, when he was promoted midseason to Springfield as a 22 year old and he OPS'ed .966 in 38 games. Here is azruavatar's observations on Pham from 2010. He returned to centerfield in Springfield the next year but his season was cut short in June after 40 games with a hand injury suffered while taking a swing. He was playing reasonably well with an .895 OPS and a solid 10.9% walk rate. He was even rated the Cardinals 20th best prospect by John Sickels at Minor League Ball before the 2012 season.

20) Tommy Pham, OF, Grade C+ : Has always had the tools and was putting them together in Double-A before stopped by injury. Career .314/.398/.527 hitter in 264 Double-A at-bats.

Pham's 2012 started back in Springfield again, and he was playing although fighting through a shoulder injury that was bothering him in Spring Training. He lasted only 12 games in 2012 after re-injuring his shoulder diving back to first base on a pick off. His numbers seem to indicate that he was attempting to play through the injury with no stolen base attempts and a huge K rate of 44% and a .515 OPS.

At this point in the story, Pham's story looks like so many others: a potentially successful baseball career that is derailed by injury. Pham was exposed to the Rule 5 draft this offseason and went unclaimed, most likely due to his injury problems. But, the Cardinals were happy to hold on to Pham and he returned to Springfield again in 2013 and is by all accounts healthy and proving his ability. In the first 12 games (which is the same number of games in played in his injury plagued 2012) he is OPS'ing 1.102 with a scalding 20.6% of balls in play hit for line drives. His balls in play are generating some luck within his numbers, but he's helping himself with a lot of line drives and his speed is helping his numbers with 5 triples.

The Cardinals would be lying if they knew what to expect from Pham in the future, but so far he's showing that he should be put back on the map. He's blocked in front of him by Adron Chambers and Shane Robinson, but with his tools, he could prove to be better than both in the long term.

Minor League Slow Starters

jroman — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 16:04:28 -0000

Michael Wacha – SP – Memphis

Everyone’s Spring Training darling jumped past Springfield after 8 innings there in relief last year and is starting his first full minor league season at the top of the minor league ladder in Memphis and has struggled in his first 2 starts over 9 innings. His FIP is at 7.09 is 3 runs higher than his ERA, which indicates that despite his struggles, he is still getting a lot of luck with a BABIP of .200. The main difference in his numbers from last year is the contact he is allowing within the strikezone. Wacha’s contact allowed on pitches in the strikezone is a staggering 95.9%. So, 96% of the time he throws a ball in the strikezone this year, the batter is making contact. Compare that to 60.8% in Springfield last year. Looks like Wacha is not yet able to get AAA batters to swing and miss at strikes yet. We have all seen Wacha pitch and heard the reviews. He has the stuff, but has not put it into results as a starter in Memphis yet. Everything indicates that he will, however.

Hector Hernandez – SP – Peoria

Hernandez, who is repeating at the A-ball level and is in his 3rd season at the level, had a bad first outing of the year despite only giving up 4 hits and 3 runs, his BABIP is at dangerously low levels (.111) but 2 HRs and 1 walk will push that FIP up to 7. As I always have a soft spot for lefties with big sweeping curveballs, I’m hoping Hernandez will turn it around and start moving up the levels again.

Audry Perez – C – Springfield

Perez, a player never known for his offense and who has a walk rate of under 2% for his minor league career, it is never really a headline when he is struggling to start the year, but he is even struggling compared to his career numbers. Perez has 2 hits in 30 plate appearances and no walks. Perez has a .069 BABIP and with only 1 strikeout, he is well below his career average in that category. His luck is going to turn, but if he keeps pounding 60% of his balls in play into the ground, it will not go much higher.

Charlie Tilson – OF – Peoria

You can hardly blame Charlie Tilson for his slow start after losing all of last year to a shoulder injury and previously having only 30 professional PAs in rookie ball after being drafted in 2011 out of high school. But, 3 hits in 33 PAs is still a very bad start. Only 1 walk so far and 7 strikeouts. Additionally, one of the 4 times he got on base, he was thrown out trying to steal. Tilson’s .125 BABIP should regress up, but like Perez, he will have to hit fewer than 76% of his balls in play into the ground.

Small Sample Size Heroes

jroman — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:55:02 -0000

James Ramsey – CF - Palm Beach

The Cardinals surprise 1st round pick in 2012 was thrust immediately into advanced A ball at Palm Beach last year after the draft and predictably, he struggled a bit even though his wOBA+ was right at 100 for average in the pitcher’s league. The Cardinals put him back in Palm Beach to start the season and he has started out the year red hot. In his first 25 plate appearances, his batting average is .350 (not wildly high for his track record) which is supported by a .438 BABIP (which is quite high, but we have seen small sample size heroes with a much higher BABIP). He’s hitting 3% more line drives than league average so far as well. Ramsey is going to come back to earth slightly, but he’s having a great year so far, here’s hoping he keeps it up and justifies his draft position.

Stephen Piscotty – RF – Palm Beach

Piscotty, another 2012 draftee who is also supposed to move quickly was placed in full season low A ball after the draft and thrived with a 116 wOBA+. He was promoted to Palm Beach to start this season and the third baseman turned outfielder is tearing the cover off the ball despite some pretty strong bad batted ball luck. In his first 20 PAs, Piscotty is batting .333 despite a BABIP that is .250. In his 6 hits, 2 are HRs and 1 is a double. His numbers still have some rise in them despite his 5.6% LD%. Piscotty is due for some better contact and some better luck. Look out.

Colin Walsh – 2B – Palm Beach

The first three entries are all from Palm Beach so far, but they have the three top hitting prospects so far. Colin Walsh is a 2010 draftee and has worked his way up the ladder and is capitalizing on a strong season last year and has started out hot in Palm Beach. Must be the weather, everyone is red hot down there. (Well, not everyone, sorry Ronny Gil!) In 24 PAs, Walsh is hitting .364 with a very high .500 BABIP. That is certainly not sustainable! His line drive average is at 6.3% which is below his career average and the league average. Walsh is due for his numbers to regress to the mean even when he begins to make harder contact. But, the .962 OPS and 148 wOBA+ are great signs to start the season.

Keith Butler – Closer – Springfield

I had to mention Keith, who is repeating in Springfield as their closer. Through his first 7 batters faced, Butler has struck out 5, allowed 2 batted balls and no hits. His ERA is obviously 0, but his FIP is -1.80. You read that right, negative 1.8.

Kyle Hald – SP – Palm Beach

Kyle Hald, the Cardinals 2011 draftee, a lefthander out of Old Dominion has had two great starts to begin the year for Palm Beach. He’s pitched 11 innings and has struck out 25% of the batter he’s faced, 90% of those strikeouts swinging. He’s buoyed a bit by .276 BABIP, which is 50 points below average, despite the fact that he’s allowing 12% more line drives than his career average and the league average. He is saving himself by not putting extra guys on the bases with 0 walks so far. He’s no Seth Maness, but his career walk rate of 4.4% is still quite good.

Cardinals Minor League Roster Reactions

jroman — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 18:50:30 -0000

Peoria Chiefs (Cardinals class A)

I can't tell you how hard it is for me to not look up the Quad Cities River Bandits, but I'll get used to it soon enough.

Pitchers - Kurt Heyer, drafted in 2012 out of Arizona, Heyer was the top starter for the Wildcats. He projects as a low-ceiling, high floor guy and a quick mover. But, the highest ranked prospect on the team is Tyrell Jenkins. Hector Hernandez, my personal sleeper pick is also on the staff.

Infield - Peoria has a very interesting infield with three 2012 draftees in 3B - Patrick Wisdom, 2B - Jacob Wilson and SS - Alex Mejia. But, they also have Breyvic Valera, one of 2012's top sleepers vying for playing time at second.

Outfield - The Chiefs have 2011 2nd rounder Charlie Tilson in center, who missed all of 2012 with an injury. Will be exciting to finally see what the kid can do given really playing time.

Palm Beach Cardinals (Cardinals class A+)

Pitchers - Sam Gaviglio (to way oversimplify it) is the Kurt Heyer out of the 2011 draft class. Righthander, college arm, fast mover. The rest of the staff is lacking the sizzle of the Peoria staff however.

Infield - Slick-fielding and light hitting Ronny Gil is at short and I continue to have a soft spot for the young man as he moves up the ladder. Colin Walsh is at 2nd with Jonathan Rodriguez, (J-Rod part deux) at 1st. Cody Stanley, one of the St. Louis Cardinals few catcher prospects is behind the plate for the Palm Beach Cardinals.

Outfield - The Palm Beach outfield is quiet interesting with two advanced outfielders from the 2012 draft class in James Ramsey in center, he'll need to stick in center to raise his prospect profile and he'll need to stay one step ahead of Charlie Tilson, a player he is about 3 years older than. Also, there is Stephen Piscotty, although listed as a 3rd baseman will have both his future and his present in the outfield. Exciting up and comer, Anthony Garcia fills out the other corner outfield spot as he attempts to build on his strong 2012 in A ball. Nicholas Longmire, a name most people remember around these parts for his short season hype will be the 4th outfielder.

Springfield Cardinals (Cardinals class AA)

Pitchers - Springfield has a very interested, deep and crowded starting rotation. They've got Richard Castillo, who used to be way too young for his league when he was in Palm Beach 3 years ago, but now he is just about average age for his league. They've also got Boone Whiting, reigning Cardinals minor league player of the year in 2012. They also have highly drafted Seth Blair with Scott McGregor and Anthony Ferrara in the rotation. Their DL has some players on it as well, with highly thought of Jordan Swagerty and Scott Gorgen both situated there. 40-man rosterees Michael Blazek, Keith Butler and Kevin Siegrist have (perhaps permanently) been shifted to the bullpen, which shows where the organization thinks of them going forward.

Infield - The X-man Xavier Scruggs is at 1st, but 2012 breakout star Starlin Rodriguez steals the show at 2nd base and newly acquired Jake Lemmerman is at shortstop.

Outfield - Tommy Pham, who was drafted all the way back in 2006 and has been around what seems like forever is in centerfield, but listed as a DH.

Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals class AAA)

Pitchers - The St. Louis Cardinals really took a lot of the sizzle out of this pitching staff, with all three of Miller, Rosenthal and Kelly staying with the big club. There are however, some names still to watch. Spring Training darling Michael Wacha and control expert Seth Maness headline the pitching staff with intriguing lefties John Gast and Tyler Lyons following them in the rotation. Lots to like here even without the top trio, which shows you the level of high end, near major league ready pitching the Cardinals are blessed with.

Infield - Greg Garcia and Kolten Wong, who have been a double-play pairing since their time in college at Hawaii, continue to hold down the center of the infield defense. And Ryan Jackson was returned to Memphis yesterday and hopes to regain the mojo that made many consider him the Cardinals best defensive shortstop. However, he looks to be a utility infielder both in Memphis and St. Louis.

Outfield - Oscar Taveras. Period. Oh yea, and there's Adron Chambers too.

2013 Minor League Hitters Upward Regression Candidates

jroman — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 18:59:30 -0000

Carson Kelly

The Cardinals went over slot for Carson Kelly in the 2012 MLB draft and the 17 year old started the year at short season Johnson City. He didn't put up big numbers, but with a terribly low BABIP, Kelly is due for an upwards regression this upcoming year when he will most likely play in short-season Batavia.

	G	PA	BABIP	LD%	GB%	OFB%	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kelly	55	222	.226	7.9%	44.9%	37.1%	14.9%	4.5%	.224	.262	.395	.657
Lg Avg	-	-	.315	13.8%	45.5%	29.4%	21.3%	8.6%	.255	.330	.386	.716

As you can see, Kelly had about 60% of the average player in the league line drive rate, but lost about 90 points on the batting average of balls in play versus the average player in the league. However, despite that, he did not have an above average amount of ground balls, but he did hit more outfield flies than normal. Line drives are the highest BABIP hit in baseball and ground balls and fly balls are more easily turned into outs. Carson Kelly's lack of line drives would indicate some of his lower BABIP, but not all of it.

Tyler Rahmatulla

Rahmatulla blasted the ball at Quad Cities in 2012, but struggled when he was moved up to Palm Beach. The 34th rounder in the 2011 MLB draft out of UCLA jumped right to full season Quad Cities to start his first full year in the minors and then was promoted to Palm Beach in June. Let's focus on his Palm Beach numbers:

	G	PA	BABIP	LD%	GB%	OFB%	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rahmatulla	45	167	.183	8.9%	40.2%	35.7%	21.0%	11.4%	.147	.248	.224	.472
Lg Avg	-	-	.306	16.0%	42.4%	30.1%	19.1%	8.5%	.255	.327	.373	.700

BABIP is a little lower in Palm Beach with better pitchers and better defenders all over the field, but Rahmatulla may have set some sort of record. Similar to Carson Kelly, Rahmatulla was not squaring up the ball for line drives in Palm Beach and was hitting more fly balls than average. However, that does not make up the difference in the BABIP completely. His walk rate increased from Quad Cities to Palm Beach, so he was obviously seeing the ball well. The Cards might push him to Springfield next year with only Rule 5 pickup Matt Cerda and Jermaine Curtis ahead of him on the depth chart in the minors.

Roberto De La Cruz

Poor Roberto De La Cruz. Any other player who had not received the bonus De La Cruz did ($1.1 million) would have been out of the organization by now, but let's take a look at De La Cruz's 250 PAs at Quad Cities in 2012.

Aff	G	PA	BABIP	LD%	GB%	OFB%	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
De La Cruz	61	250	.265	13.1%	50.6%	26.1%	26.8%	2.0%	.207	.229	.306	.535
Lg Avg	-	-	.304	15.1%	44.4%	28.5%	19.5%	8.6%	.253	.326	.378	.704

De La Cruz was actually making some good contact, with only 2% below the league average for line drive percentage. However, he pounds over 50% of his balls in play into the ground as ground balls and he isn't going to get a lot of hits that way. His BABIP of .265 is still low, so expect an improvement next season. That being said, his K% and BB% are dreadful and will have to come up to at least league average to make any difference as a prospect going forward.

But, he is only going to be 21 years old next year and will probably repeat in low-A, but at the new affiliate in Peoria.

Ronny Gil

Mr. Gil has always been a favorite of Future Redbirds, even when he went by his old name, Grabriel Hernandez. He's always been able to play shortstop, but his offense is the big question mark. And when he is unlucky at the plate, it really hurts his value.

Aff	G	PA	BABIP	LD%	GB%	OFB%	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gil	119	456	.286	12.8%	49.1%	24.4%	21.3%	5.9%	.224	.275	.293	.568
Lg Avg	-	-	.306	16.0%	42.4%	30.1%	19.1%	8.5%	.255	.327	.373	.700

Like De La Cruz, Gil hit a LD% that was slightly below average and hit an above average percentage into the ground. His K rate and walk rate are way below average as well. However, expect Gil's speed to give him an above average BABIP like the .337 BABIP he had in Quad Cities last year going forward and his numbers to improve accordingly.

The Case for CJ McElroy as a Top Prospect

jroman — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 17:34:54 -0000

CJMcElroy is my "just missed" prospect of the year, I had him ranked 19th out of 20, but when the rankings were tabulated he fell just on the outside looking in. McElroy was just drafted in 2011 out of Clear Creek HS in League City, Texas and is still quite a raw product with lots of potential, but the skills that are there indicate the potential of a very valuable player.

No discussion of CJMcElroy starts without his father, former major league pitcher ChuckMcElroy, whose presence most likely guided the two-sport star to a career in baseball over running back for the University of Houston. CJ is still nineteen years old and has not yet gotten to full season minor league baseball, playing only in the GCL in 2011 and short season Florida State League in 2012.

He is a plus plus runner, although he hits from the right-side he is still able to turn deep ground balls into hits. His speed also makes him a potentially elite base stealer as well. He had 24 stolen bases in 29 attempts in just 61 games. Baseball America graded McElroy the fastest runner in the Cardinals system after the 2011 season. He’s not a home run threat, but his speed will keep up his slugging percentage going forward through his triples.

His speed also allows him to play a good centerfield with the ability to get to balls in the gap other players may not be able to. We will need more time to truly evaluate his play in centerfield, but needless to say, his offensive profile fits more in center where less power is necessary.

The Cardinals outfitted McElroy with a new swing this year and eager (or over eager) to use it, McElroy did not take a lot of walks that would have given him opportunities to steal and put a lot of noise in his numbers, which are not overwhelming. .271/.332/.646 BA/SLG/OPS for the year to be exact. But, McElroy is a player that works beyond the numbers with increasing skill in center and speed on the basepaths to take the extra base or break up a double play or cause an error. But, you have to get on base to steal and McElroy will have to increase his on base percentage to become a viable speed threat in the top of the order going forward.

However, as every coach in every sport has said for hundreds of years, "you can't teach speed" and CJ McElroy has it. He's got the potential to put together his other skills to become a major league player as well.

Cardinals Sign Dominican Pitcher Alexander Reyes

jroman — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 17:36:45 -0000

Alexander Reyes grew up in Elizabeth, NJ, just outside of Newark, NJ. His family is of Dominican decent and per DPLBaseball.com, he moved to his family's native Dominican Republic a year ago in December of 2011 so that he would be able to train all year round to become a professional baseball player. Not coincidentally, the Cardinals signed Reyes almost exactly a year after he moved to the Dominican because there is a MLB-mandated year grace period before a prospect can be signed out of the Dominican Republic.

Ben Badler of Baseball America indicates his surprise at the fact that Reyes received such a large bonus (the 2nd biggest bonus of the year for a Dominican pitcher) despite the fact that a lot of scouts had not actually seen him pitch. Badler does say that the Astros and Royals were both also interested in Reyes and he did spend time at the Royals academy, so it is unlikely that the Cardinals stashed Reyes at their academy for the whole year.

Reyes does seem to have found a bit of a loophole in MLB's US draft system as was able to move to the DR for a year and sign with whichever team he wanted and/or whichever team offered him the most money. In this case, everything Reyes did was completely within the rules and the Cardinals are the team that will benefit.

Now on to the scouting reports.

DPL Baseball:

Reyes shows a present plus fastball and 2 other solid pitches, projecting him to be a quality starter down the road. His FB velocity sits 91-93 (95)mph; CB has tight rotation and can throw it for strikes; CH is deceptive with movement down in the zone. He commands his pitches and pounds the strike zone with a good feel for pitching.

Ben Badler of Baseball America:

Those who have seen Reyes say he is 6-foot-3, 185 pounds and has had his fastball increase in recent months, going from the high-80s to sitting 90-93 mph and touching 94. A converted shortstop, Reyes' best offspeed pitch is his changeup, which he already sells with good arm speed, and he mixes in a curveball as well.

As he moved from the US just last year, Reyes is fluent in both English and Spanish and should make his first appearance for the Cardinals in the US-based short season leagues, most likely the GCL in 2013.

Imagining Future Redbird Trade Bait

jroman — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 02:33:26 -0000

First and foremost, lets take a look at two targets that have been connected (if even in fan speculation) this offseason, Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera. Amongst shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances, both Lowrie and Cabrera have almost identical wRC+ (via Fangraphs) with 111 to 112. Remember, 100 is average, so both players are in the top 5 for shortstops. Cabrera is 27 and won't turn 28 until after the 2013 season. Jed Lowrie is 28 and will turn 29 before the 2013 season. The main difference between the two players is their play with the glove. Cabrera has averaged -10 runs with the glove per season, his main issue being a lack of range. Jed Lowrie has been better, but hasn't had a positive year with the glove since 2009. However, with the most innings of his career this year, he was about average at shortstop.

Here's a very recent deal that does not include an infielder, but I think it comes close when you look at a player who plays a highly demanding defensive positions.

Minnesota Twins trade CF Denard Span to Washington Nationals for RHP Alex Meyer.

Denard Span is a player who plays a premium defensive position and is certainly within the top 10 best defensive centerfielders in the game. He is not a big power threat at the plate with a career slugging percentage of .389, but he knows how to get on base. Span is probably a better defender than Cabrera and Lowrie, but they have got the advantage over him at the plate. Finding comps is an exercise in futility, but I think they are all three within the ballpark when it comes to overall value to a team.

Let's take a look at who the Nationals gave up for Span in Alex Meyer. Meyer is a player who was drafted out of Kentucky in 2011 and was signed to a $2 million bonus. He pitched at both A and high A this year with a 3.09 K/BB ratio between both levels. From Mark Anderson at Baseball Prospectus after the trade:

Alex Meyer is an absolutely massive guy with an imposing presence on the mound. His long, lean frame can be difficult to keep in check throughout his delivery, but he made strides in 2012 with his consistency. With that improved consistency, Meyer’s fastball that sits in the 94-95 mph range found the strike zone more frequently. He can run his fastball up to 98 mph and there are times when his fastball plays up a grade because his long extension gets the ball on hitters more quickly than they expect when it comes out of his hand. Backing up his fastball, Meyer has a true plus slider that can miss bats and helps him maintain a high strikeout rate. His changeup is well below average and he rarely shows feel for throwing it.

And here's Kevin Goldstein,also from Baseball Prospectus on the Nats top 11 in January of 2012:

The Good: Meyer is a pure power pitcher. He's an imposing presence on the mound and sits in the low-to-mid 90s with a fastball that can touch 98 mph and features a heavy downward plane due to his size. He'll flash a plus slider and has some feel for a change. He's an intense competitor who worked hard to hone his raw abilities.
The Bad: Meyer's body and complicated delivery can lead to command and control issues. His changeup comes in a bit too firm at times and could use more velocity separation. He often racks up high pitch counts, and his overall package profiles better as a closer for some.

The one player that seems to match closely with Meyer is the Cardinals' RHP Tyrell Jenkins. Jenkins is further away from the majors than Meyer, but may have a higher upside when it is all said and done. Jenkins also was drafted in the first round and was also given a bonus over a million dollars.

Here's Kevin Goldstein again before the 2012 season: (Emphasis mine to show similarities.)

The Good: There are few more athletic pitchers than Jenkins in the minors. He has long levers, but his silky-smooth delivery allows him to throw strikes with an 89-95 mph fastball that should sit more consistently at the upper parts of that range as his game matures.
The Bad: Jenkins remains a very raw product. He'll occasionally show an impressive curveball and has some feel for a changeup, but they're both inconsistent offerings that will require plenty of refinement. He needs innings and repetition more than anything.

And here's Goldstein's former podcasting compadre Jason Parks on Jenkins after the 2012 season:

The 19-year-old Texan has a plus fastball, a pitch that can already work in the 91-95 mph range, and has touched higher in bursts. His curveball is a bat-missing weapon, a heavy, vertical breaker with depth, and every source I spoke with projected it as either a plus pitch or a potential plus pitch. Like his changeup—which shows good action to the arm side and deception from the fastball—the curve is still more flash than fire, but both have above-average potential.

Neither the Indians or Astros are looking like teams that will challenge for playoff position in the American League and both would be able to afford the wait until at least 2015 for Jenkins. For the Cardinals, he and his sky-high upside are a bit of a luxury with three high profile pitchers primed to graduate into the major leagues. Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are all ahead of Jenkins on the depth chart and much closer to the majors.

If pitching prospects don't fit their fancy, the Astros are in motion to the American League and are in search of a Designated Hitter and the Cleveland Indians ran out the rotten husk of Travis Hafner most often at DH last season. Both teams could be a good fit for the Cardinals tailor made DH prospect, Matt Adams.

Would either the Indians or the Astros take any one of Tyrell Jenkins or Matt Adams and either one of Pete Kozma or Ryan Jackson for their shortstops? Would it take more? How much more?

Breakout St. Louis Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of 2012: Seth Maness

jroman — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 16:39:34 -0000

The Cardinals drafted Seth Maness in the 11th round of the 2011 MLB draft out of East Carolina University. In his first season in professional baseball he pitched in Batavia, Quad Cities and Palm Beach between June 19th and the end of the season. He began this season where he left in 2011, in Palm Beach. He spent just over a month there before it was obvious that he had earned the promotion. He moved up to Springfield and did not miss a beat.

Let's look at his strikeout and walk numbers. (Next three charts via Minor League Central.)

Tm	PA	K%	BB%	KS%	KL%
Springfield	503	16.5%	1.8%	11.1%	4.0%
Lg. Average	-	19.4%	8.5%	13.9%	5.0%
Palm Beach	177	16.4%	0.6%	13.0%	3.4%
Lg. Average	-	19.1%	8.5%	14.2%	4.8%
2012 MiLB Total	680	16.5%	1.5%	11.6%	3.8%

Manness' strikeout numbers are below league average and that's a worrying part of his game, especially at this level. But, look at the walks. He is 7-8% below league average for both Springfield and Palm Beach. That walk rate is beyond unheard-of and is starting to run into the "other-worldly" category. Less than 1% of his plate appearances in Palm Beach resulted in a walk and less than 2% at Springfield.

The basis of Seth Maness' lack of walks is his ability to throw strikes. The Texas league average for percentage of pitches thrown in the strikezone is 59.5%. Seth throws pitches in the strikezone 67% of his pitches.

Let's take a look at his contact. A pitcher of his type should not be allowing much hard contact if he is hitting his spots.

Tm	PA	LD%	GB%	OFB%	IFB%	GB/FB	Bunt%	U%
Springfield	503	13.1%	50.9%	26.7%	5.4%	1.58	1.5%	2.5%
Lg. Average	-	15.7%	45.5%	28.2%	7.0%	1.29	1.2%	2.3%
Palm Beach	177	11.6%	55.8%	23.8%	6.1%	1.86	0.0%	2.7%
Lg. Average	-	16.0%	42.4%	30.1%	7.5%	1.13	1.4%	2.5%
2012 MiLB Total	680	12.7%	52.2%	25.9%	5.6%	1.66	1.1%	2.5%

And that is exactly what he is doing. His line drive percentage is below league average at both levels, which is a great sign because his strikeout numbers are not huge. Over 50% of the time, the contact that Maness allows is into the ground which is turned into an out a majority of the time.

Let's look a bit at the luck involved:

Tm	BF	IP	ERA	FIP	SIERA	GB%	LD%	BABIP
Springfield	503	123.7	3.27	3.59	3.56	50.9%	13.1%	.280
Lg. Average	-	-	4.09	3.95	4.04	45.5%	15.7%	.303
Palm Beach	177	46.0	2.15	3.42	3.28	55.8%	11.6%	.282
Lg. Average	-	-	3.88	3.64	4.14	42.4%	16.0%	.306
2012 MiLB Total	680	169.7	2.97	3.54	3.49	52.2%	12.7%	.281

Seth Maness' BABIP is certainly above average, but with the low LD% and high GB% I don't consider this to be a line with a bunch of "good luck". Maness has produced more ground balls, which are more reliably turned into outs and therefore has a lower BABIP. He is also hurt by the fact that Springfield (and the Texas League in general) is very hitter friendly.

If we are going to project what type of major league pitcher Maness will become, here is the list of major league pitchers with a BB% under 6%, K% under 16% and a GB% above 48%. (Via Fangraphs) It is a limited group for a few reasons, one being that it is extremely difficult to be successful in the major league when you strike out so few batters and even more difficult to maintain such a low walk rate against major league hitters who are more patient and more capable of hitting good pitches. Additionally, the profile is very rare.

Name	Team	G	IP	BABIP	GB%	LD%	xFIP	K%	BB%
Scott Diamond	Twins	27	173.0	.292	53.4 %	21.0 %	3.93	12.6 %	4.3 %
Clayton Richard	Padres	33	218.2	.272	53.8 %	18.4 %	4.16	11.8 %	4.6 %
Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	31	191.0	.309	46.6 %	21.6 %	4.17	15.0 %	5.7 %
Mike Leake	Reds	30	179.0	.306	48.9 %	24.5 %	3.82	15.3 %	5.4 %
Rick Porcello	Tigers	31	176.1	.344	53.2 %	24.2 %	3.89	13.7 %	5.6 %

However, there is a caveat and that is the fact that none of the players above maintained nearly the walk rate that Seth Maness did in the minors. All had a walk rate around or slightly under 6% in the minors similar to their major league numbers.

Seth Maness with a breakout season in 2012, has placed his name with the top group of starting pitchers in the Cardinals system, albeit with a different profile than most. Maness should start the 2013 season with Memphis in what could be a stacked rotation. (Rosenthal, Kelly, Dickson, Maness, Lyons, Gast, Martinez, etc.)

He should be an interesting player to keep an eye on over the next 2 years where we see whether he can keep his walk rate insanely low in AAA and even in the major leagues. If he is able to keep the walk rate within his current range below 6% and maintain his strikeout rate, Maness will be able to turn himself into a quality second-division starter like Scott Diamond or Clayton Richard above. If he is not, then he will end up as one of the AAAA players that cannot make the jump to the major league level. Unfortunately, it will not be his walk rate that decides whether he can be a major leaguer, it may be his already below average strikeout rate.

Something that cannot be seen in the stats is Maness' repertoire and his MPH readings. From all reports, Maness is throws his fastball in the upper 80s, which will be an impediment for him moving forward. Also, over at Future Redbirds earlier this year, I was able to interview Maness if you would like to read a little bit more about his repertoire, routine and preparation. If he can get the fastball up a few miles per hour, to sit over 90 MPH, then his prospect status and his chance to be successful in the major leagues both increase greatly.

Bulger Benched

jroman — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:58:11 -0000

Info Here: http://blogs.nfl.com/2008/09/23/rams-bench-bulger/

Here: http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2008/09/23/st-louis-rams-bench-marc-bulger-will-start-trent-green-at-quar/

Looks like Trent Green will start on Sunday against the Bills. This is a HUGE desperation move. And I doubt is going to work.

Bulger has been part of the problem, but not enough to bench him. I don't know about Trent behind our struggling offensive line. This will at least ease the pain for all the Bulger-haters out there.

Info Here: http://blogs.nfl.com/2008/09/23/rams-bench-bulger/

Here: http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2008/09/23/st-louis-rams-bench-marc-bulger-will-start-trent-green-at-quar/

Looks like Trent Green will start on Sunday against the Bills. This is a HUGE desperation move. And I doubt is going to work.

Bulger has been part of the problem, but not enough to bench him. I don't know about Trent behind our struggling offensive line. This will at least ease the pain for all the Bulger-haters out there.

Trade for a DT?

jroman — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 17:03:24 -0000

Profootball talk is reporting that beyond Kris Jenkins, Marcus Stroud is available for trade. Also available at DT is Shaun Rogers of the Lions, Dewayne Robertson of the Jets. Although it looks like Rogers could be already headed to Miami.
Who knows what sort of draft pick could sent over for any of these gentlemen. If I would hedge a guess, I would say a 3rd round pick for Stroud, considering he is making 6 million a year.

Just imagineer this D-Line for a second:
Gholston-Stroud-Carriker-Little.

Yum.

Should we try and deal for one of these DTs?

As with always, anything reported on Profootballtalk should be taken with a grain of salt.

Link:Profootballtalk

Just imagineer this D-Line for a second:
Gholston-Stroud-Carriker-Little.

Yum.

Should we try and deal for one of these DTs?

As with always, anything reported on Profootballtalk should be taken with a grain of salt.

Link:Profootballtalk

Rams Draft 2nd, Draft List and Mock Drafts

jroman — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:09:05 -0000

[editor's note, by VanRam]Good thing the Rams didn't win a fourth game and muddy the draft pick waters...kidding. I've promoted this diary to get us a head start in talking draft. Just a quick programming note, I'll be in and out through the rest of the week supporting my family through a pretty tough time. I'm working on a post about the salary cap for '08 and expect to have that by Friday. In the meantime, let's keep the offseason discussion going. We certainly have plenty to talk about. Thanks to jroman for sorting out the mocks as of now. I suspect as the underclassmen picture shapes up, these lists will change, not to mention Linehan's role in the Senior Bowl.

I just wanted to get a headstart on draft talk and put some of the predictions are prognostications around the web.

Here's the list for the top 10:
First Round

Miami (1-15)
St. Louis (3-13)
Atlanta (4-12) (tie breaker)
Kansas City (4-12) (tie breaker)
Oakland (4-12) (tie breaker)
New York Jets (4-12)
New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cincinnati (7-9)
New Orleans (7-9)

Here are some predictions for the Rams at #2:
Walterfootball.com - Jake Long - OT Michigan
NFL Draft Countdown - CHRIS Long - DE Virginia
Draftking.com - Jake Long - OT Michigan
Footballsfuture.com - CHRIS Long - De Virginia
----
Please feel free to add any others in the comments. Should be interesting to say the least.

I just wanted to get a headstart on draft talk and put some of the predictions are prognostications around the web.

Here's the list for the top 10:
First Round

Miami (1-15)
St. Louis (3-13)
Atlanta (4-12) (tie breaker)
Kansas City (4-12) (tie breaker)
Oakland (4-12) (tie breaker)
New York Jets (4-12)
New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cincinnati (7-9)
New Orleans (7-9)

Prentice Redman

jroman — Wed, 08 Mar 2006 18:06:13 -0000

Has anyone else seen this guy pop out in season projections? (mainly ZiPs - see below)
He has the 6th best Runs Created on the team.
Average better than Bigbie and JRod.
Decent power but a lot of Ks.
My question is here - why did he sneak under the radar and where did these projections come from? Has he played this well in the past?
Redman,Prentice    (CF)
Age    26
AVG    .263
OBP    .324
SPC    .420
AB    467
H    123
R    68
2B    33
3B    2
HR    12
RBI    64
BB    40
K    102
HBP    4
SB    10
CS    7
RC27     4.5
RC 61.9
Update [2006-3-8 13:9:33 by jroman]: Here's his Baseball Reference Page, allow me to say "Whaaaaaa?" I'm so confused. http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/redmapr01.shtml

Predictions(2005 version)

jroman — Thu, 02 Feb 2006 16:52:05 -0000

Here's the numbers from last years Diamond Mind projections vs. what actually happened. I only did the difference in Wins because Losses would be the same and I don't have the time to do Runs For, Runs Against. But maybe I'll do it on my lunch break.
Its very insteresting how the Easts (AL and NL) and both very accurate and the AL Central is just a mess.
(bah! sorry for the bad formatting)

EAST W diff
x-NY Yankees    2
y-Boston    1
Toronto    7
Baltimore    6
Tampa Bay    1

CENTRAL    W diff
*-Chicago Sox    20
Cleveland    14
Minnesota    6
Detroit    8
Kansas City    11

WEST    W diff
x-LA Angels    11
Oakland        3
Texas    1
Seattle    14

EAST    W diff
x-Atlanta    4
Philadelphia    2
NY Mets        1
Florida    1
Washington    2