SB Nation User Blog: jscape2000

Rumor Mongering

jscape2000 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:56:04 -0000

I don't think I've posted my annual guide to the Hot Stove yet, so look for that in the coming days. But for now, just remember that the Yankees will be tied to everyone. While I wish I was a GM, and so I consider every rumor and even manufacture an idea or two of my own. Maybe this makes me the media's whore, but I'm ok with it.

My advice: just don't get to excited about who the Yankees "are sure" to get or not get until you see a press conference and a man in a jersey. And remember when the Yanks don't make the "obvious" move, they have a plan of their own that they are following.

Fox Sports (Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi):

Some agents and executives, viewing Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner as little more than spare outfielders, actually believe the Yankees should focus more on center field than left.

Cameron posted a UZR of 10 last season, with an OPS+ of 111, even though his linedrive rate dropped to its lowest since 2002.

His plate discipline looks about the same as it has in previous seasons, which overall, is a good thing.

And yet, if I were Brian Cashman (who showed strong interest in Cameron as a trade candidate last season), I'm not sure I'd do more than kick the tires. Sure, if he'd sign for the same one year that we'd like Damon or Matsui to sign for, the sabermetrician in me would love the deal.

However, combined with Swisher, that's a lot of strikeouts in our lineup. Cameron's career low was to strike out once every 4 PA (back in 2000). It's not that I think the strikeout is a 'bad' out, but I recognize that hitters prone to strikeouts tend to be streaky and/or vulnerable to top flight starting pitching.

Still, Cameron would actually be an upgrade over Damon because Cameron plays center (well) and could cover any outfield spot in a pinch.

Melky & Brett: Neither a Starter Nor a Reserve Be

jscape2000 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:08:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Do you think Melky or Brett should get more playing time?

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Melky Cabrera

Brett Gardner

.274/.336/.416

OPS: .752

wOBA: .331

EQA:.259

UZR/150: -2

BB: 8.1% K: 12.2%

LD: 20.9% GB: 49.5% FB: 29.6%

.270/.345/.379

OPS: .724

wOBA: .337

EQA: .264

UZR/150: 15.4

BB: 9.5% K: 16.1%

LD: 18.1% GB: 49.0% FB: 32.8%

All those numbers are just a really long way to say, these guys are pretty interchangeable.

Despite Joe G.'s insistence on treating Gardner as a 4th outfielder throughout the playoffs, Gardner is the more valuable player in my eyes because of his superior batting eye. Melky has an edge in slugging (equivalent to turning 18 singles into doubles over the course of 500 ABs). I also prefer Gardner's greater range over Melky's arm.

Gardner won the starting job out of spring training, then lost it by hitting .220/.254/.271 in April.

As a split-time situation (hard to call it a platoon when Gardner hit lefties better than he hit righties in a small sample, and Melky saw twice as many ABs against righties than lefties) developed, neither player could win the job outright, but each seemed to heat up as the other cooled off. Gardner outperformed Melky in May and June (.937 OPS to .732), then Melky began to heat up in July (.819 to .621).

And when Gardner hit the DL with a broken finger at the end of July, Melky reminded the world why he needs a partner in CF by hitting .260/.322/.395 for the rest of the season.

Either player could probably be a starter on any other team, counting on his above average defense to make up for his bats weakest moments. But, we are the Yankees, with a legacy of slugging center fielders. Patience is, at the best of times, short.

Objectively speaking, we shouldn't hand the starting job to either player, not for Gardner's epic defense (though I'd be ok with it) and not for our happy memories of Melky's walkoff hits.

Poll

How would you handle playing time in CF?

Ramiro Pena is already on the roster, plus Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez and Reegie Corona are Rule 5...

jscape2000 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:05:31 -0000

Ramiro Pena is already on the roster, plus Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez and Reegie Corona are Rule 5 eligible. That’s a lot of 40-man spots to commit to middle infielders. "Something will give," Cashman said. "Last year I had too many guys to protect and we did that three-for-one for Nick Swisher. We made the right calls. We had decisions to make about who we should protect and who we felt like, alright, we’re not going to protect but we think we’ll get them back."

LoHud

Turn Cody Ransom, Pena and Reegie Corona (who I've had an eye on for a few years) into a high caliber player?
For your mouth to God's ear, buddy.

Another Wang Decision

jscape2000 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:59:24 -0000

NYPost:

As for Chien-Ming Wang, his agent, Alan Nero, said surgeon James Andrews cleared the righty to throw beginning on Dec. 1, and that he could be ready by mid-April or early May to pitch in regular-season games after shoulder surgery.

However, Yankee doctors have not seen Wang and the team plans on non-tendering the righty rather than risk paying a minimum of $4 million for him in 2010. The Yanks will then consider if he is worth offering a low-base, incentive-laden contract to return.

Early May is the earliest estimate I've heard.

Obviously, I've never sat in on an arbitration, but Wang has gone 9-8 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 137 IP over the last 2 seasons. I doubt he would make much more than the minimum.

Unless the Yanks think that Wang will sign a two year deal or a one year with an option (like Jon Lieber and Sergio Mitre), the difference of a couple million dollars seems triffling.

The Yankee brass has always seemed to undervalue Wang, taking him year to year rather than working out a long term deal like they did for Robbie Cano.

The Hughes Rules: the 3 Step Plan

jscape2000 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:13:47 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

"I just hope Cash listens to jscape's suggestions."

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No, I have no idea how the Yanks will handle it. But here's my hope:

1) Make Hughes win his spot out of Spring Training (which I think he will).

Gaudin, Mitre, Aceves, Chamberlain, IPK, Nova, Kontos, McAllister, even Igawa. If he's not one of the 5 best guys in Tampa, he goes into the mix in the bullpen or down to Scranton where he can start and have his innings closely monitored. He can then be the first to the rotation in the event of injury or ineffectiveness.

2) Let him pitch to his MLB career high (86) and then move him to the pen so his innings can be managed.

Joba was solid (though not brilliant) up to and just past his previous career high (110IP, 3.58ERA, 1.40 WHIP), and he was putrid beyond that (46.2IP, 7.52 ERA, 1.89 WHIP). The plan needs to be to make those 'learning' innings as low leverage as possible. The prospect of a late season return by Wang plus whoever is effective from the supporting cast listed in Step 1 should give the Yanks the depth next season to handle Hughes more gently than they handled Joba last season.

3) Shut him down if he has a Joba-esque September.

No command, no confidence, no reason to be on the mound.

The Salary Situation

jscape2000 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:22:09 -0000

Most of the names I left off the list (I believe) are 1st year players who will have their contracts renewed at or near league minimum (.4M). I'll assume at 50% raise for all the arbitration eligible players.

Via Cot's

Pitchers	2009	2010	Hitters	2009	2010
Sabathia	14	23	Rodriguez	32	32
Burnett	16.5	16.5	Teixeira	20	20
Rivera	15	15	Jeter	20	21
Pettitte	12.5	0	Posada	13.1	13.1
Wang	5	7.5	Damon	13	0
Marte	3.75	4	Matsui	13	0
Gaudin	2	0	Nady	6.5	0
Bruney	1.25	2	Cano	6	9
Mitre	1.25	1.25	Swisher	5.3	6.75
Chamberlain	.4	1	Hairston	2	0
Hughes	.4	1	Molina	2	0
Robertson	.4	.4	Hinske	1.5	0
Aceves	.4	.4	Cabrera	1.2	2
Coke	.4	.4	Gardner	.4	.4
Sub-Total	73.25	72.45	Sub-Total	136.0	104.25
			Total	209.25	176.7

While Damon and Matsui's salaries are coming off the books, CC's deal calls for a big increase this season.

Let's assume that the Yanks plan to start the season with a $200M payroll. That leaves some money for midseason reinforcements.

Jeter-Cabrera-Teixeira-Arod-Posada-Cano-Swisher-DH-Gardner

CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes, Aceves/Mitre

The Yanks have roughly $24M to play with, how would you spend it?

Another Reason Matsui Won't Be Back

jscape2000 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:32:06 -0000

More photos » by Michael Appleton - AP

"I'll put this in my locker beside my porn collection."

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The Elias Rankings came out today, and everybody's favorite 2009 World Series MVP took a hit in the standings.

Hideki Matsui will be an uncompensated free agent, providing the Yankees with no reason to offer him arbitration.

I have figured from the start that someone will overpay the aging DH, but this pretty much seals the deal.

(By the way, I read Mariners so many places- I get it, they have signed a lot of Japanese players- but my money would be on an organization that is treading water and hoping for a different outcome like the White Sox, Tigers, or Rangers to sign Matsui to a 2 or 3 year deal around $10M per year).

Matsui could come back to my Yankees on an incentive deal with a base around $5M (more for staying off the DL and hitting for power), agreeing to be an 80 game DH and the best pinch hitter in baseball.

A Tweet About Andy

jscape2000 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:36:50 -0000

A Tweet About Andy

"nothing definite yet, but andy pettitte apparently told #yankees teammates he'd like to come back for 1 more year."
-Jon Heyman, SI

The Need for a Lackey

jscape2000 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:11:25 -0000

More photos » by Michael Appleton - AP

"Yes, Lord?"

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The focus of last offseason, and of every offseason since Clemens and Pettitte bolted to Houston, has been pitching.

It has always been pitching, it should always be pitching.

So while all the Yankee talk I read and hear revolves around Damon v. Matsui, I'm not really worried about either. I'd make both of them an offer of 1 year $9M. If either or both accept, welcome back, and if not, I would look at Nady or Reed Johnson. And a trade remains a possibility.

But I'm worried about starting pitching. The Rays aren't as formidable as they looked last offseason, but they'll still be very tough. The Red Sox rotation has one more year to give me a headache.

I don't know if Andy will be back. A championship has been his reason for returning each of the last 3 years, and I suspect he's watched Mike Mussina's ride into the sunset and contrasted it with the unenviable final seasons of Smoltz, Glavine, and Rocket.

I expect Joba to be better and to pitch without a lease.

I expect Phil Hughes to begin the innings-building dance Joba performed this season.

I will always be nervous about counting on AJ Burnett; 1 successful season down, 4 to go. I want a solid backup plan, and right now I'm not sure that Sergio Mitre (who has an option that should be exercised) or Al Aceves are sufficient, especially with Hughes and Chamberlain already in the rotation. Wang might be back in August, if the Yankees don't get stupid and forget to offer him a contract.

So I'm looking for a 200 inning starter to replace or augment Andy Pettitte.

The quick answer is John Lackey, who has maintained a 1.2 WHIP and 7K/9 for the last several seasons. He's younger than AJ, and while not a traditional ace, he is a great pitcher. There's not a lot of other (relatively) sure things out there. Rich Harden? Jason Marquis?

Unless Cashman sees an opening in the trade market, or he is sure that Andy is coming back, I think the Yankees need to be in on the bidding for John Lackey.

Ticker Tape and Modern Art

jscape2000 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:44:39 -0000

Only a Yankee fan could complain about a victory parade.

It's partially my fault, I know. My train didn't reach Penn Station until 10 o'clock. I walked onto Nassau around 10:25. I followed the crowd until we came to a stop around Isamu Noguchi's Red Cube.

I've always had trouble with modern art- my taste for the aesthetic is apparently underdeveloped. I prefer stories, narratives, or portraits. I look at El Greco or Henri Matisse or Salvador Dali and I begin to invent cause and effect to explain how we got it. I can't really enjoy just what is.

Which is why I was disappointed by the parade. I didn't want to just be there- I wanted to see my heroes and celebrate them, and I went into the city to see them acknowledge being celebrated. And standing 15 people deep along Broadway, I didn't get to see that.

Double decker busses rolled by with Yankee employees standing on top. I could see those guys. But I didn't take the train in to cheer the hot dog man.

Mr. Cashman, I know you read the blog from time to time, so here's my suggestion: next year, put the players on top of the buses and let the little guys ride in the little cars.