SB Nation User Blog: jscape2000

To Be the "Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth"

jscape2000 — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 04:59:56 -0000

From Gehrig's official website:

Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about the bad break I got. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth. I have been in ballparks for seventeen years and have never received anything but kindness and encouragement from you fans.

Look at these grand men. Which of you wouldn't consider it the highlight of his career just to associate with them for even one day? Sure, I'm lucky. Who wouldn't consider it an honor to have known Jacob Ruppert? Also, the builder of baseball's greatest empire, Ed Barrow? To have spent six years with that wonderful little fellow, Miller Huggins? Then to have spent the next nine years with that outstanding leader, that smart student of psychology, the best manager in baseball today, Joe McCarthy? Sure, I'm lucky.

When the New York Giants, a team you would give your right arm to beat, and vice versa, sends you a gift - that's something. When everybody down to the groundskeepers and those boys in white coats remember you with trophies - that's something. When you have a wonderful mother-in-law who takes sides with you in squabbles with her own daughter - that's something. When you have a father and a mother who work all their lives so you can have an education and build your body - it's a blessing. When you have a wife who has been a tower of strength and shown more courage than you dreamed existed - that's the finest I know.

So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for.

'Sure, I'm lucky,' he said.

It's a folksy, casual but proud declaration, even in the face of doom. Open your eyes, he says. Look at the things I've got you'd beg for. Of course I'm the luckiest man alive.

Is that perspective what makes Lou Gehrig an indelible American icon? Today, 70 years after he actually said all that, is it his honest assessment that is as impressive as his courage?

When Babe Ruth stood at the same spot 8 years later, he quipped, "You know how bad my voice sounds- well it feels just as bad." But Gehrig wasted no words in self pity, and he was not attempting to entertain. No one would have thought less of him if he had, just as I'd never fault Ruth for a little levity. But Gehrig is working with great confidence and a crystalline understanding of who he was: the hero to millions, legend of the game, a superstar.

Baseball wasn't big business yet in 1939 (at least not for the players; the owners did alright); there were easier ways to make a living than as a baseball player. Gehrig worked winter jobs to make ends meet, but he understood the adoration of the crowd. He knew how badly everyone in the stands had wanted to be him every one of those 2164 games.

Maybe that's what makes Gehrig's speech so resonant- we can all see ourselves in it. He opens by addressing us directly, by praising us even though someone somewhere must have booed at some point. He offers us a day in his life, and since that's all we've ever want we'll take it. And now we're standing at home plate, and we are speaking with the greatest courage and humility imaginable, just the way we would want to if we were important enough to share our tragedies with the world. Anyone can be a victorious champion, and we often forgive the faults of those who fail. Thrown helmets, curses, smashed water coolers are overlooked, even admired as signs of dedication (except by Lou Piniella). But the greatest champions show the same even temper in victory and defeat.

Lou Gehrig gives us a glimpse of perfection, and we are left looking on with pride, jealousy, and awe because he is who we wish we could be, even at the worst of times.

Sergio Mitre and the Future of Phil Hughes

jscape2000 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:11:26 -0000

An interesting footnote in the Times' recap of the first game against the M's.

Helping Hughes’s case to stay is the veteran Sergio Mitre, who is 2-0 with a 2.88 E.R.A. in four starts for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Having Mitre as insurance for the rotation lessens the need for Hughes to fill that role.

Mitre is 28 years old, and one of the Marlins who needed TJ surgery after Girardi left, though I haven't heard Joe G. blamed as directly as for Josh Johnson (and Mitre's usage bears this out).

From 2002-2006, Mitre was a swing man, usually appearing in a dozen games or so, starting 7 and relieving the rest. His high for IP was 60 in 2005.

In 2007, Mitre's innings jumped from 41 the previous season to 149. He started 27 games and produced 180 hits, 41 BB and 80Ks.

Mitre's put his sinker to good use in the International League, and has held the opponents slugging down (albiet in a small smaple size).

I like the move (or non-move). Mitre is the kind of guy who should be in the minors waiting to be called up for a spot start, not Phil Hughes. Hughes is showing too much potential to waste his arm in AAA.

Thinking About 16-11

jscape2000 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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I want the Yanks to play .600 ball against the bottom of the barrel, .500 against the contenders.

So far this season, I've asked the Yankees to go 47-31, which would put them atop the division (assume at least one of those extra wins would have come at the Red Sox expense. Instead they've gone 44-32 with a couple wash outs to make up.

The Yanks are not in bad position. They're 3 games up on Texas and Toronto for the wildcard, and if the season ended today they'd probably meet the Angels in the first round of the playoffs.

But I want that division crown, and July is a good month to make up some ground.

Team	Games	'08 W%
Seattle	2	.377
Tor	4	.531
Min	3	.540
LAA	3	.617
Det	3	.457
Bal	3	.422
Oak	4	.466
TB	3	.599
ChiS	2	.546

So, I clump the Twins, Angels, Rays and White Sox into 'contenders.' So 6-5 there.

In the other 16 games, I'll take 10-6.

The Tigers and White Sox have swapped places in their division, so call that a wash. But the Twins are a .500 team and look it, while the wheels have really fallen off the Athletics.

The Yanks have the room to make a move this month, with Phil Hughes looking dominant in the pen and the rotation starting to click. They'd better take it.

Looking Back at June

jscape2000 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:45:27 -0000

While the Yanks still have one more game to play in June, I'm ready to take a look at whether or not they lived up to expectations.

The cliche says 'pound the weak teams and split with the contenders.' So I've set the line for contenders at .550 and asked for .600 baseball against the guys below the line and .500 baseball above the line.

In April I saw a weak schedule and wanted a romp. Instead of 15-8 the Yanks went 12-10 with a rain out. Disappointing.

May was encouraging, a tougher schedule, so I asked for 16-13 but was rewarded with 17-12. All seemed right with the world.

June, though. Oh, June.

I wanted 8-3 against the combo of Cleveland, Seatle, Washington, Texas, and Atlanta, a .700 WP considering anything less than a sweep of the Nationals would be embarrassing. But following embarrassment, the Yanks have to beat Seattle tomorrow just to finish 7-4.

And then against the contenders. 15 games against the Mets, Marlins, Rays and Red Sox.

Thank goodness for the Mets. The Yanks took 2 of 3 from the Rays only to drop all three to the Sox. Luis Castillo's fielding and Johann Santana's worst outing in history allowed the Yanks another 2 of 3. Then the Marlins came on strong, crippling the Yanks' offense. But again, the Mets picked us up- how sweep it is. We managed to finish 8 and 7 against contenders for the month, despite the Red Sox sweep.

I asked for 16-10, and I got 14-11 with a game to play. June is definitely a month that was even tougher than expected. And that's before Billy Mays died.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at what to expect from July.

Yankees at Mets: Is Today the Day for 500?

jscape2000 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:05:19 -0000

With an off day coming, I expect to see Mariano Rivera play either way. What better way to cap a sweep of the Mets than with a milestone for the greatest closer ever?

For that to happen, though, Chien Ming Wang is going to have to step up and perform in a way he hasn't lately. If you had bet me a hundred dollars last May that the sinkerballer would go a year between victories I would have called you a fool.

Wang has shown the old life on his pitches in his last couple of outings, but the endurance isn't there yet.

The offense wasn't quite intimidating yesterday, but it was efficient. I'd love to see Arod, Posada, and a few others all get hot together and power us through the next stretch.

Lineup

New York Yankees @ New York Mets

06/28/09 8:05 PM EDT

New York Yankees	New York Mets
Derek Jeter - SS	Daniel Murphy - 1B
Nick Swisher - RF	Alex Cora - SS
Mark Teixeira - 1B	David Wright - 3B
Alex Rodriguez - 3B	Gary Sheffield - LF
Robinson Cano - 2B	Fernando Tatis - RF
Jorge Posada - C	Fernando Martinez - CF
Melky Cabrera - LF	Brian Schneider - C
Brett Gardner - CF	Luis Castillo - 2B
Chien-Ming Wang - P	Livan Hernandez - P

Remembering Lou Gehrig's Famous Speech

jscape2000 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 21:45:21 -0000

Remembering Lou Gehrig's Famous Speech

Gehrig's sudden death was a shock for the baseball world, but in the last 70 years the meaning of his message has stretched beyond baseball.

Yankees at Mets: Recap

jscape2000 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:04:37 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

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Bruney looked brilliant. He's going to be a crucial piece to the division crown.

Jorge juiced one.

Pena made a pretty play.

And AJ Burnett looked like a $16 million dollar man.

It's really all about the pitching: the Yankees have allowed only one run to the Mets so far, and a 3.72 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in June.

Let's break that down a little.

In April, the staff averaged 3.9 BB/9. In May, 4.0. In June, 3.3.

Meanwhile, the K/9s have jumped 7.1, 7.5, to 8.5. To look even deeper, it's the relievers who have suddenly become dominant.

Coke has been untouchable in June: 11.2 innings, only 8 baserunners against 12Ks.

Robertson has looked good since his return, too. Did you realize he has 16 Ks in 9 June innings?

Aceves has of course been nasty- 15 baserunners in about 14 June innings. I would argue that it is his role that is making the real difference. The starters have averaged around 5.2 each month, but with Aceves locking down those crucial middle innings the other relievers have avoided overexposure and overwork.

Yankees at Mets: Be As Good As Last Time

jscape2000 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 16:07:45 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

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AJ Burnett was nearly perfect last time out, and took the tough luck loss despite 1 run over 6.1IP. He stymied the Mets two weks ago- 7 shutout innings.

He's exactly the man I want on the mound as the Yanks try to run their modest winning streak to 4 games.

Mets starter Tim Redding was a Yankee for an inning back in 2005. When most of the starter went down simultaneously, the Yanks called up the journeyman and childhood Yankee fan. And in Fenway Park, Redding got murdered. I was in a bar in Aurora, NY, waiting for a buddy to get off his shift in the restaurant across the street; for whatever reason, there was a Red Sox fan sitting next to me. Redding gave up 4 base on balls, 4 hits, and left in the bottom of the second, down by 3 with the bases loaded and nobody out. It was an awful day. I had to drive, so I couldn't even drown my sorrows.

I'm of the humble opinion that he owes us an easy day.

Interested in an Outfielder?

jscape2000 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:53:28 -0000

With Nady out for the season, does it make sense for the Yanks to trade for another outfielder?

When the Yanks traded for him last season, it was openly acknowledged he was brought in to replace Bobby Abreu. When Cash swiped Swisher from the ChiSox (for Wilson Betemit!) a part of the attraction was that Swisher would be a Yankee for several seasons and a reasonable price.

I think it's an experiment that the Yankees should look to repeat as the trading deadline approaches.

Melky, BG, and Swisher are under control for next season but that's an outfield of question marks. While AJax is killing the ball (.321/.385/.424), he's also missing the ball (71K in 68 games).

The Padres' Scott Hairston would be an interesting target- a hard swinging CF. He's 29 and under team control through 2010. Kevin Towers has liked the Yanks pitching prospects in the past.

The Astros have a pair of 26 year olds, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. They're both under team control for longer, so the price would be higher. Maybe for a Zach McAllister and a reliever?

Catching the Red Sox this year will hinge on the starting pitchers. But adding a young outfielder who will stay with the team for a few years will give the Yanks greater depth and more flexibility in the off-season.

Jeter at 35

jscape2000 — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:12:29 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

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Happy birthday, Cap'n.

You're owed $21.6M this season and $22.6M next season.

You have 2623 hits, and if everything goes right you'll be a few dozen hits shy of 3000.

You've got some decisions to make DJ; you've talked so often and so sincerely about being a Yankee that it would a shock if you ever wore another uniform.

But you might have to take a pay cut to stay in pinstripes. There's not really a precedent for the downward negotiation of the second richest contract in free agent history. But when you look at the deals handed out to Jorge Posada (30% raise for age 36-39), Mariano Rivera (40% raise for age 38-40), and Alex Rodriguez (10% raise for age 32-41) you might be thinking raise. How pissed will you be if the Yankees give you the Andy Pettitte treatment?

You're the Yankee shortstop. You're playing the best defense of your career through better positioning and off-season focus on movement. You're going to be remembered as the Yankee shortstop the way people think of Mickey Mantle as the Yankee centerfielder- no one really talks about 404 games at the corners and at first from '64-'68.

But you're 35. Of the 7 shortstops in the Hall of Fame who played most of their careers after WWII, they played 58.6% of their games at short from their age 35 season on. You'll argue that those numbers are skewed by the switches of Ernie Banks and Robin Yount, but you were never in the defensive class of Ripken or Smith. The change is coming, can you live with it?

If I were the Yankees, I'd have started negotiating a contract extension already. Then the blame is on you if we can't get it done for rough $18M through age 40, bonuses for breaking the Yankee hit record later this season or early next season, for 3000 hits, for breaking Rickie Henderson's Yankee record 326 SB, Gehrig's 534 doubles, and Ruth's 1959 runs.

Once the new deal is signed you start shagging fly balls in the outfield. I'm not ordering the switch until I'm sure we have your replacement, but when you move it'll be permanent. Once Ripken moved to 3rd he didn't bounce back and forth. I watched the Mike Piazza first baseman experiment, and you're not going to do that. The move will be final.

Happy birthday, Cap'n. It's going to be an interesting year.