SB Nation User Blog: jscape2000

Revisiting the Santana Trade as a Commentary on the State of Baseball

jscape2000 — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:57:29 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - ASSOCIATED PRESS

We traded for Vazquez?

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It didn't really hit me until I started reading Tyler Kepner's article on the Vazquez trade.

Phil Hughes + Melky Cabrera + Jeff Marquez + Ian Kennedy = Johan Santana

Jeff Marquez + Wilson Betemit = Nick Swisher

Melky Cabrera + Arodys Vizcaino = Javier Vazquez

IPK + Phil Coke + Austin Jackson = Curtis Granderson

Phil Hughes = 5th starter/ bullpen ace

Throughout its history, baseball has undergone an evolution in how it evaluates player value.

In the '30s and '40s strikeouts were the worst thing a hitter could do. A high batting average made superstars, and walks were under-appreciated. The stolen base has gone in and out of style. Pitchers have been measured by wins, by IP, by K's, and by WHIP (baserunners per inning).

Obviously, everyone understands the value of an ace: Sabathia, Lee and Halladay were all traded for bundles of young talent. Santana will likely be remembered as the outlier because Bill Smith put a higher value on keeping Santana away from the Yanks and Red Sox and didn't get a marquee player from the Mets.

But might baseball undervalue durable starters who pitch many innings around league average?

These players are making their money via free agency (Marquis just signed a 2 year $15M deal with the Nationals). It could the reverse; the media frenzy around Doc Halladay started 2 years before he could have filed for free agency. Ditto for Cliff Lee.

The Yanks brought aboard V for a league average center fielder and a young top prospect. Jarrod Washburn went to Detroit for an MLB reliever and a high-A starter. Jason Marquis was only worth Luis Vizcaino. None of these guys would be a fan-base's first choice to top a rotation, but clearly a pitcher able to post quality starts is an asset. How are they so undervalued?

Javy el Jankee (so long, Melky)

jscape2000 — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:01:20 -0000

Interwebs are full of rumors of a Yankee reunion with Javier Vazquez.

Word is Vazquez and (lousy) reliever Boone Logan for Melky, minor league lefty Mike Dunn, and maybe A-baller Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino and Melky would hurt, but I always like Javy. He got run out of town for having a lousy second half and being part of the Kevin Brown-Johnny Damon Game 7 in the Year We Shall Not Name.

He's had a WHIP of 1.20 over the last 5 seasons and averaged 213 IP. You wanted an ace, Brian Cashman delivered an ace for spare parts and projections.

I don't know the budget situation, but this could reopen the door for Johnny Damon.

Update (10:15):

Says Sam Borden:

For the bargain price of Melky, Mike Dunn and (apparently) the other A-Rod, Arodys Vizcaino, Cashman has:

1. Given the Yankees rotation incredible depth.
2. Likely pushed the Yankees toward a resolution on the Joba to the pen question.
3. Retained financial flexibility for next offseason and beyond (Vazquez’s contract is up after 2010).
4. Relieved a glut of extra outfielders.

Strengthening the bullpen by adding to the rotation is an important part of this move. The more I think about it, the more I like it.

Goodbye, Melky. League average is so often under-appreciated.

Update (11:16):

Says Joel Sherman:

The Yankees project Vazquez as a Type-A free agent next winter, so they can offer arbitration and - if it's rejected - get 2 high picks to begin replenishing the system.

The Corner and Cliff Lee

jscape2000 — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 12:53:52 -0000

When Roy Halladay signed his extention with the Phillies, Cliff Lee became the top free agent on the 2010 market. He's coming off two Cy Young caliber seasons at age 29 and 30, but he was pretty pedestrian before that. While we're confident that Lee won't sign at a discount in Seattle, he's not CC Sabathia.

Josh Beckett might still work out a deal in Boston, but with his injury history (back and hands), the $85M deal the Sox just gave John Lackey, and the emergence of Jon Lester, the Red Sox might be willing to let Beckett take offers on the open market. Unless someone offers a Tom Hicks-Arod overpay, the Red Sox can be confident that they'll be able to match any final offer.

A year ago, Brandon Webb was the top pitcher on this list. As of December 2008, Webb had averaged 227IP for the last 5 seasons, a 1.25 WHIP, a sinker worth 0.6 HR/9IP, and 7.1K/9. An impingement in his shoulder left some people wondering if the D-backs would pick up his $8.5M option for 2010 (they did). We'll have another year to watch him try to ensure his career is more Mike Mussina and less Ben Sheets.

One thing we haven't talked about yet: the Yankees have to sign at least one of these starters. C.C. Sabathia will be a free agent after the 2011 season. He might not significantly beat his current deal in dollars, but just like Arod, he can find someone (maybe the Yankees) willing to extend it through the end of his career.

One thing I didn't like about last offseason was A.J. Burnett's deal. Yes, he was the second best starter on the market, and yes, the Yankee needed him. Everyone knew that. So the Yankees offered a 5th year ever though no one else was in that neighborhood. And this year Lackey wanted the same contract. The Yankees have less need this year, but someone was willing to give Lackey his price (in years; I really don't care about dollars).

One (or more) of the pitchers on this list are going to get a Sabathia/Santana deal. I'm not sure any of them are really worth those many years. But the Yankees backed themselves into a corner when the ink dried on Burnett's contract. As we've learned so many times, you can't spend your way out of mistakes- everything has to go right with the development of Joba and Hughes. I hope it's not asking for too much.

News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

jscape2000 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 06:19:49 -0000

Tyler Kepner has the shake down on the Johnson-Damon drama:

Johnson is not precisely taking over for Damon. In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.

I know some folks wanted Damon back; some think Cash made a wrong choice, and the Yanks' will regret it when they have a sore Johnson in June.

These are negotiations. I pretend that I'm not budging, you pretend that your not budging. Sometimes, one of us thinks we're not serious when we really are. The difference in real value of Damon/Matsui vs Granderson/Johnson is marginal, and this gives Cashman a little more leverage in future negotiations with Scott Boras. Next time Boras makes an outrageous demand to Brian Cashman, and Cash replies "That's unreasonable, so I'll go to my other options," Boras will be quicker to buckle.

Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes thinks that Brett Gardner could be a better left fielder than Jason Bay next season when we weigh offense, defense and baserunning.

I call malarkey because Joe G. proved in September and the postseason that he doesn't think Gardner gives him the best chance to win. If Joe G. has someone else, anyone else to run out there, he will use the other guy. Whether it's an ice-cold Melky or Nick Swisher having a Soriano-esque bout of futility at the plate, Joe G. thinks that GGBG's speed can only be a weapon off the bench.

Gardner has the potential (assuming no regression in the notoriously fickle UZR), but I don't think he'd ever get the opportunity.

Who's the greatest Yankee to ever wear #14? YankeeNumbers gives you the full run-down. My short list is down to Lou Piniella, Bill Skowron and Miguel Cairo. Grand Central has some work to do to put himself in that company.

The most important baseball man to ever wear 14 as a Yankee is easy, though: Bobby Cox.

Donnie Collins replaced Chad Jennings at the SWB Blog, and he's doing a fine job. He notes that former Yankee farmhand Eric Hacker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants- Hacker was DFA'd and traded to the Pirates for Romulo Sanchez, who is currently on the Yankees' 40-man and has an outside shot at making the bullpen out of Spring Training.

This is something else that Cashman has done well lately: holding on to the right guys, and flipping the marginal guys for other marginal guys he can have an extra season or two to develop.

Pitchers and catchers report in the longest 8 weeks of the year.

I try to always cite my sources. I think I link to one of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs every single day. And there's a reason: they're awesome. The work they do updating and sharing their respective information is as important as anything happening on the internet (from a baseball standpoint).

In the spirit of the season, I want to say a huge thank you to the folks who run each of those sites. What I do would be impossible without what they do.

Damon came back to Yanks at 2 yrs/$20M late Thurs. But by then, Yanks and Johnson had essentially...

jscape2000 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:48:26 -0000

Damon came back to Yanks at 2 yrs/$20M late Thurs. But by then, Yanks and Johnson had essentially agreed to 1/$5.5M; there was no going back

Tyler Kepner makes it sound like Damon overplayed his hand.
As I said earlier today, I see no reason Johnson can't be pushed into a more part time role so Damon could play the field 4 days a week.

Thinking About Matt Capps

jscape2000 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:39:11 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Other guys would be called MattCapps as a nickname. MattCapps is just who MattCapps is.

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Aside from having the most assonant name on the free agent market, Matt Capps is one of the most attractive relievers available.

He's so sexy that his about half the teams in baseball want him to join their squad.

This might be surprising because Capps posted a 5.80 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, 12.1 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9. You're thinking, maybe he's that drunk sort of sexy.

But there's one thing I've learned about baseball, and based on their roster construction, I think the Yanks have learned it too: don't expect anything out of relievers. Don't expect them to be good, don't expect them to be bad. Unless it's Mo Rivera, you simply never know what you're going to get.

Part of this is statistical. Sample size is important in evaluations, and evaluating relievers year to year depends on a tiny sample size. Matt Capps threw 54 innings last season, 53 the season before. CC Sabathia threw 44 innings last May.

Another related piece is dumb luck. "The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game." In a small sample size identical performance can produce disparate results. I already gave you Capps' numbers from 2009. Here are the numbers that stayed relatively the same: 7.6 K/9 (career 6.9), LD% 18.7 (career 20.2), GB/FB 1.00 (career 0.82). Matt Capps posted a .370 BABIP, up 70 points from his career average. For all these reasons, and no doubt more, the Yankees (and half the teams in MLB think Capps will return to being the guy who posted a 1.06 WHIP with 6.7 K/9 in his first 3 full seasons.

The Yanks have a slew of relievers and potential relievers who will do what they have done the last two season, mix and match the middle innings to ferry the ball to the great Rivera. Mark Melancon, Damaso Marte, Houdini Robertson, Aces Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin, Nova, Kontos, Jonny Albaledejo, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Edwar Ramirez and Hector Noesi are all pretty much certain to see some time on the Yanks' roster. I picked Zach McAllister as the Yanks' top prospect because I think this will be his year somehow, someway, and I still think Alan Horne could make a charge. Plus there's always Joba and Phil should the Yanks sign another starter.

Matt Capps will make a decision soon about where he wants to play, and the Yankees will be on the list. They will be on because it is to Matt Capps' financial benefit for the Yankees to be involved. I will try my best not to pay attention, try not to think about what a valuable addition Matt Capps would be to our bullpen. He's probably only putting the Yankees on his list to drive up his price for whomever he will eventually sign with. The free agent dollars are in closers and that's the guy he should want to be if he's interested in securing his family's financial security through the next generation; being part of the Bridge to Mo should be the farthest thing from his mind.

But if he signs with the Yankees, expect the most exultant jscape post in a while.

The Yankees, Nick Johnson and Jim Thome

jscape2000 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:57:17 -0000

I started having this thought even before rumors surfaced of the Yankees' interest in Nick Johnson.

If Johnny Damon won't come back on the Yanks' terms (and I'm of the belief that Damon won't beat a $20/2Y offer), there are a slew of free agent options who would be available on 1 year deals. Two of the most intriguing pure-DH options are Jim Thome and Nick Johnson.

Thome 2007-2009: 1572 PA .256/.380/.517

Johnson 2007-2009: 721 PA .277/.424/.410

[Update at 1:58 p.m.: Discussions with Johnson are 'hot']

There are four parts of the story here: staying healthy, making contact, working the count and driving the ball.

Clearly, Jim Thome has been better at staying healthy. Will he continue to be? While Thome hasn't been available 150+ games in 6 seasons, he's played in less than 130 since 2003 until his trade to the NL this past season. On the other hand, Johnson had hand problems when he was with the Yankees, a back problem with the Expos/Nationals, a broken cheekbone on a grounder, a broken leg after a collision on a pop-up, and a torn ligament in his wrist. Two interesting/ encouraging things about Johnson: 1) he's a year removed from his wrist injury, so he might show more power than his .410 SLG suggests; 2) only the wrist injuries are re-occurring (and separated by many seasons), and two of the injuries that have cost him the most time are freak injuries.

If they stayed equally healthy, what's the value of Johnson's extra .021 batting average? Let's imagine the Yanks' DH gets to play 130 games, with the rest going to Posada, Arod, Jeter, Tex and Swisher. That's roughly 500 PA- 128 hits for Thome, 139 hits for Johnson. While I acknowledge that a hit is better than a walk (walks only drive in runs when the bases are loaded), those 11 extra hits over a season are less than an extra hit every other week.

On the other hand, Thome would get on base 190 times. Johnson would get on 212 times. That's 11 extra hits, plus another 11 walks (which are almost, if not quite, as good as a single). At the risk of sounding too much like Crash Davis, an extra hit a week is the difference between an All-Star and a scrub.

But slugging is Thome's advantage, and in a big way. Sticking with our 500 PA assumption, Thome is going to tally 258 total bases (his best season by that measure since 2004) and Johnson will wind up at 205 total bases. Roughly, that's a 35 HR, 25 doubles, and 70 singles season from Thome, compared to a 10 HR, 25 double, and 115 singles for Johnson.

Johnson is the ideal #2 hitter, Thome would look brilliant at #5. Who would you rather have? Let me hear your thoughts, and I'll leave mine in the comments at the end of the day.

Yanks Want Private Workout with Chapman

jscape2000 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:51:06 -0000

Yanks Want Private Workout with Chapman

The Yanks were impressed by Chapman's improved physique (better diet and conditioning) and his slightly altered mechanics.

I'm of the opinion that the Yanks should spend big on international free agents. I was disappointed by Igawa, but I like the approach and am not scared of another disappointment. The Yanks will never draft high, so they should flex their financial muscle in every other way.

h/t RAB

A Tiger's Thoughts on Granderson

jscape2000 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:55:56 -0000

by Duane Burleson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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I've been holding on to this piece for the last couple of days because of all the attention the Halladay trade and Lackey signing were (rightly) receiving.

Whenever the Yankees and the Tigers cross paths, I reach out to cartoon enthusiast and blogger extraordinaire Ian Casselberry of SBN sister-site Bless You Boys.

His thoughts on Curtis Granderson after the jump:

I (along with plenty of other Tigers fans) thought Curtis Granderson was a core part of the Tigers' roster, but evidently, the team felt differently. Here in Detroit, we're still trying to work out exactly why the Tigers considered Granderson expendable. One guess is that they didn't see him improving the flaws in his game.

As you've already written, the big problem with Granderson is his hitting against left-handed pitching. His .484 OPS this year was just awful, and it affected Granderson's reliability in the lineup late in the season. Against lefty starters, he was either moved down in the order or benched, which is not what you want from one of the key players in your lineup.

Granderson got knocked for his defense late in the season, But as perplexing as that was, he's still an excellent defensive centerfielder. Sometimes, his preference for playing shallow hurts him, and he lets a few balls go over his head. But he seems to get good jumps, with an ability to make the spectacular play. His throwing arm isn't the best, but it's not terrible, either. And Granderson makes up for that with good positioning and decision-making.

The biggest change in Granderson's game last year was the emphasis on power over hitting to the gaps and using his speed. It's just a theory, but I think Jim Leyland messed with his head early in the season by moving him down in the lineup to drive in more runs. That got Granderson away from hitting doubles and triples, and I think it lingered when he was put back in the leadoff spot.

Presumably, the Yankees won't need Granderson to be a RBI man, since they already have that covered. Without that burden, he may get back to what made him successful in previous seasons.

Being 'the man' on a team can effect a players approach to the game in subtle and obvious ways. Hopefully Ian is right, and Granderson rediscovers the magic now that he's not the heart of the lineup (Arod), the focus every story, or even the biggest philanthropist on the team (Jeter).

Many thanks to Ian for taking the time to put this together.

Yanks were willing to offer Jesus Montero in big package but not Joba or Hughes for Halladay. Jays...

jscape2000 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:15:33 -0000

Yanks were willing to offer Jesus Montero in big package but not Joba or Hughes for Halladay. Jays liked Drabek.

Heyman tweets about the Yanks' non-move on Halladay.

Not sure if this means wouldn't include Joba or Huges with Montero, or wouldn't include Joba or Hughes at all. Either way, I agree with the decision, especially if Cash was certain that Halladay was leaving the AL.