SB Nation User Blog: jscot

The Sched Ahead -- 11/09/09 Week Three, Primoris Annus Blazerium Dominatium

jscot — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:11:26 -0000

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road). The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

I had always viewed games using these categories, but this fan post convinced me that others might be interested, and thus the sched ahead posts began, with all results generated by an Excel spreadsheet (laziness FTW). Due to complaints from the numerically challenged, I added food names to the basic Cat 1-4 designation.

Preseason overview

As a bonus, I have used the "jscot stupid sched projections" (c). These stupidly assume that a team will continue to win each category of games at the same rate they have won them to date. These are deferred until we get further into the season.

I am still using last season's win-loss records to determine whether teams are a winning opponent or a losing opponent. This will probably hold for another week or so before I start to use this year's record.

Last week's update

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-1) split two Jawbreaker Home games (Cat 2) and won a Cat 1 Cream Puff. Not great, but decent.

Dallas (2-1) won two at home, a Cream Puff and a Jawbreaker, and lost a Cat 4 back to back at New Orleans. A decent week.

Denver (2-2) started the week great with two Banana Peel road wins against losing teams, but then ran into trouble and lost two tough Rocky Road Cat 4s against winning teams. Not a bad week, you expect to lose the games they lost.

Houston (2-1) had a great start to the week with a Cat 4 Rocky Road in Utah, gave it back with a Cat 2 home loss to L.A., and then closed out with a Cat 1 Cream Puff win against OKC. A good week.

L.A. (4-0) won a game in every category. Cat 4 at Houston, Cat 3 at OKC, Cat 2 home to N.O., and Cat 1 home to Memphis.

N.O. (1-3) also played a game in every category, but didn't fare as well. They started by slipping on a Cat 3 Banana Peel at NY (on a back to back), won a Cat 2 at home against Dallas, then dropped a Cat 1 against Toronto (this game may shift to a Cat 2 if Toronto keeps playing well), and lost a Cat 4 at L.A.

Phoenix (3-1). The Suns are hot. Three Cat 4s and they won two, at Miami and Boston, losing at Orlando, then adding a Cat 3 win at Washington. Very impressive. Last year they didn't win their second Cat 4 Rocky Road game until January 25th. They didn't win their third until April 8th. They seem likely to get another one before April 8th this season.

The Spurs (0-2) lost two Rocky Road Cat 4s, at Utah and Portland. The only redeeming feature for them is that they were games that they might be expected to lose.

Utah (1-3) had a really bad week, losing a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, and only going 1-2 at home, with a win over S.A. but a Cat 2 loss to Houston and the most painful loss for any Western contender so far this year, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Kings.

Helped themselves: L.A., Phoenix.

Neutral: Portland, Dallas, Denver, Houston.

Hurt themselves: N.O., S.A., Utah..

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	0	1	1	20
Dallas	1	1	2	19
Denver	1	2	3	19
Houston	1	1	2	20
L.A.	1	0	1	21
N.O.	0	3	3	19
Phoenix	2	1	3	18
S.A.	0	3	3	20
Utah	0	2	2	21

Phoenix picked up two big wins in these toughest games, Houston and L.A. each got one. San Antonio last year was strong in this category, they aren't looking too impressive right now.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	0	1	19
Dallas	1	0	1	19
Denver	2	0	2	17
Houston	1	0	1	18
L.A.	1	0	1	18
N.O.	0	1	1	18
Phoenix	2	0	2	18
S.A.	0	0	0	18
Utah	0	0	0	18

New Orleans became the first Western contender to drop a road game against a losing team. In general, Western contenders should be expected to win somewhere between 65-85% of these games. So far, that is holding.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	2	4	17
Dallas	1	0	1	21
Denver	1	0	1	21
Houston	1	1	2	21
L.A.	2	1	3	19
N.O.	1	0	1	21
Phoenix	0	0	0	22
S.A.	1	0	1	20
Utah	1	1	2	20

Here's our first schedule disparity. We've played significantly more tough home games than some of our rivals. Unfortunately, we've also lost two of them. We should be looking to win around 70-80% of these games, perhaps more.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	0	1	19
Dallas	1	1	2	17
Denver	1	0	1	18
Houston	1	0	1	17
L.A.	2	0	2	17
N.O.	1	1	2	17
Phoenix	2	0	2	17
S.A.	1	0	1	19
Utah	1	1	2	17

Two losses in this category. Last year, the Western contenders went a month without losing any home games to losing teams during the stretch run. This year, there are already 3, as N.O. dropped one to Toronto and Utah went down to Sacramento. Toronto seems a candidate for reclassification as a winning team in a week or two, though.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	3	2	5	36
Dallas	2	1	3	38
Denver	2	0	2	39
Houston	2	1	3	38
L.A.	4	1	5	36
N.O.	2	1	3	38
Phoenix	2	0	2	39
S.A.	2	0	2	39
Utah	2	2	4	37

Portland, Houston, N.O., and Utah (twice) dropped home games this week. Portland and L.A. have played more of their home games than the other contenders.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	1	2	39
Dallas	2	1	3	38
Denver	3	2	5	36
Houston	2	1	3	38
L.A.	2	0	2	39
N.O.	0	4	4	37
Phoenix	4	1	5	36
S.A.	0	3	3	38
Utah	0	2	2	39

Western playoff contenders overall were 8-9 in road games for the week. We are not the only Western power to start a little slow.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	3	5	37
Dallas	2	1	3	40
Denver	2	2	4	40
Houston	2	2	4	41
L.A.	3	1	4	40
N.O.	1	3	4	40
Phoenix	2	1	3	40
S.A.	1	3	4	40
Utah	1	3	4	41

As far as overall quality of opposition, we have generated some imbalance here -- we have fewer remaining games against winning competition than any of our rivals.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	0	2	38
Dallas	2	1	3	36
Denver	3	0	3	35
Houston	2	0	2	35
L.A.	3	0	3	35
N.O.	1	2	3	35
Phoenix	4	0	4	35
S.A.	1	0	1	37
Utah	1	1	2	35

Note that the Hornets have already lost two to losing teams. All of last year we only lost five.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	18	6	8	1	3
Dallas	18	8	3	5	2
Denver	19	5	7	3	4
Houston	21	8	5	3	5
L.A.	19	6	11	0	2
N.O.	15	5	8	2	0
Phoenix	19	8	5	4	2
S.A.	15	5	8	1	1
Utah	18	6	5	6	1

Above is overall back to backs, categorized by the difficulty of the second game. Every team except Portland and L.A. played a back to back this week. Denver played two. Next is remaining back to backs where both teams are on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	1	1
Dallas	6	1	0	4	1
Denver	5	1	2	0	2
Houston	9	2	1	3	3
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	5	1	3	1	0
Phoenix	10	3	2	3	2
S.A.	7	2	3	1	1
Utah	8	3	2	3	0

By subtracting the two, we get games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	14	6	6	0	2
Dallas	12	7	3	1	1
Denver	14	4	5	3	2
Houston	12	6	4	0	2
L.A.	18	6	11	0	1
N.O.	10	4	5	1	0
Phoenix	9	5	3	1	0
S.A.	8	3	5	0	0
Utah	10	3	3	3	1

The imbalance here is little changed from last week. Advantage S.A. and Phoenix, disadvantage L.A. Note that quite a few teams are picking up wins on back to backs, so while a back to back is a scheduling difficulty, it by no means guarantees a loss. Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	8	0	1	2	5
Dallas	12	0	2	7	3
Denver	17	0	2	12	3
Houston	10	0	0	3	7
L.A.	8	2	1	4	1
N.O.	13	2	1	4	6
Phoenix	11	0	0	5	6
S.A.	12	0	0	5	7
Utah	15	1	3	4	7

Note that Denver and Utah are going to face significantly more tired opponents than Portland. Note also that Denver gets 12 (!) of their Cat 2 games (home games against winning opponents) when the opponent is on a back to back. That means that Denver, which already has the altitude advantage, has a double advantage on most of their toughest home games. Expect the Nuggets to rack up a lot of home wins this year.

The Coming Week

Well, we seem to have finally hit a stretch of decent play. Will it carry over to the road? This next week will tell us a lot about this team.

Portland. Four road games in five nights, Memphis, Minnesota, N.O., Charlotte. Three of them are Cat 3 Banana Peel games, the one at N.O. is a Cat 4, but they've been struggling. Every game is winnable. In the NBA, every road game, especially, is dangerous. The key to the trip, in my opinion, is Memphis. If we win that, I like our chances in Minnesota the next night, and like our chances of at least getting one of the next three (including the Atlanta game next week). A winning road trip, and the rough start to the season becomes just a memory.
Dallas. Home to Houston (Cat 2), then a back to back at S. A. (Cat 4), followed by two Banana Peels at Minnesota and Detroit (who will be on a BtoB).
Denver. Smith should be back. Two more road games, Cat 4 at Chicago then a Banana Peel at Milwaukee (BtoB), then home to the L@kers, who will be on a back to back. They'll be hoping for a couple wins, anyway.
Houston. Tricky week for the Rockets. Cat 4 at Dallas, Home Cream Puff against Memphis (both teams will be on a back to back), then a Banana Peel at Sacramento and a Cat 4 at the L@kers. 2-2 would actually be a pretty decent week.
L.A. Cat 2 at home against Phoenix (who will be on a BtoB), then a BtoB themselves with a Rocky Road at Denver, then back home for another Cat 2 Jawbreaker against Houston.
N.O. Back to back tonight at the Clippers (Cat 3 Banana Peel), a tough Cat 4 at Phoenix, then home for a Cat 2 against Portland, followed by a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Atlanta (both teams on a BtoB). Tough week for a team that has been struggling.
Phoenix. After last week, these guys are ready for anything. At Philly tonight (Cat 4, BtoB for both teams, fifth game in seven nights for the Suns). Then home for a Cat 2 against N.O. and then a back to back Cat 4 at L.A. Closing the week with a Cat 1 at home against Toronto. If they win 3 of the 4, you have to start believing that this team may be a legit playoff threat.
S.A. Rough start for the Spurs, maybe they can get well at home. Three home games this week, two Cat 1 Cream Puffs (Toronto, OKC) and one Cat 2 Jawbreaker (Dallas, who is on a BtoB). Anything less than three wins will be a disappointment.
Utah. You can be sure it wasn't part of their plan to be 2-4 before going on the road this week. Four games, one Banana Peel and three Rocky Roads. Starting at the Knicks, then on to Boston, and then back to back against Philly and Cleveland. Utah has the Knicks' first round pick this year, so a N.Y. win would be especially sweet. If the Jazz escape with two wins, it will be a good week for them.

That's it for this week. Really, only San Antonio has a week that makes you think it is set up for them to have a great week. Just about everyone else has some scary games. If we can get three wins, we'll improve in the standings and give ourselves a winning record on the road.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids?

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post says that around 250 of the 400 have been sold. Maybe Dave will give us an update soon.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

New Look/Feel of the Site

jscot — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:36:11 -0000

Is there any aspect of this that actually improves anything, or have we just changed for the fun of it?

That sounds overly negative, perhaps, but I don't see any new features that make me say, "Wow, I like it so much better now?"

On the other hand, I really don't like it that you can't have a space between paragraphs in the comments. That makes comments so much harder to read. You could indent the start of every paragraph, I guess, but that is a pain.

I started putting a blank line with a single period on the line in between each paragraph, which makes it a little more readable. But that isn't really convenient.

Any other changes that anyone noticed, positive or negative?

The Sched Ahead -- 11/02/09 Week Two, Primoris Annus Blazerium Dominatium

jscot — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:02:41 -0000

SUMMARY INFO

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Preseason overview

I am still using last season's win-loss records to determine whether teams are a winning opponent or a losing opponent. This will probably hold for another week or two before I start to use this year's record.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) lost a Rocky Road (Cat 4) game, won a Cat 3 Banana Peel road game, and split 2 Jawbreaker home games (Cat 2). Not a very good week, but not horrible. I said last week that 3-1 would be a solid week, and that every one of those games could be lost if we didn't bring our game. Since we didn't really have a quality performance in any of the games, it's hard to complain about two wins out of the four.

Dallas (2-1) opened with an alleged Cream Puff loss to Washington at home, then got a nice Rocky Road win at LA and followed with a Banana Peel win at the other LA. Lessons -- Dallas appears to be as dangerous as a lot of people thought, so also Washington, and the hype machine on the Clips (0-4) looks dead already.

Denver (3-0) won a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2) against Utah, stole a Cat 4 in Portland, and won a Cream Puff at home against Memphis.

Houston (2-1) lost a Rocky Road in Portland, won a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Golden State, and won a Jawbreaker home game (Cat 2) against Portland. No one should write these guys off yet.

L.A. (2-1) won a home Cream Puff game (Cat 1) and split two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games.

N.O. (1-2) did no better than expected, winning a home Cream Puff and losing two Rocky Road Cat 4 games (Spurs and Boston).

Phoenix (3-0). These guys aren't ready to ride off into the Suns(et) just yet. Channing is on fire. On the other hand, the schedule wasn't brutal, winning a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clips and two home Cream Puffs against Golden State and Minnesota. Not tested yet.

The Spurs (2-1) won at home and lost on the road, winning a Cat 1 against Sacramento and a Cat 2 against N.O., and losing a Rocky Road Cat 4 at Chicago.

Utah (1-1) lost a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Denver, then won a Cream Puff at home against the Clips.

Helped themselves: Denver, Houston, Phoenix.

Neutral, neither better nor worse than could be expected: Dallas, N.O., S.A., Utah.

Hurt themselves, lost games they could have been expected to win: Portland, L.A..

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	0	1	1	20
Dallas	1	0	1	20
Denver	1	0	1	21
Houston	0	1	1	21
L.A.	0	0	0	22
N.O.	0	2	2	20
Phoenix	0	0	0	21
S.A.	0	1	1	22
Utah	0	1	1	22

Eight games played in this category. Only Dallas and Denver got wins, about par for the course. Houston was a chance for us to get a rare win in this category, but there will be other chances.

Last year we were 5-17 in this category. It is success on the road against good teams that is needed to take the next step up.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	0	1	19
Dallas	1	0	1	19
Denver	0	0	0	19
Houston	1	0	1	18
L.A.	0	0	0	19
N.O.	0	0	0	19
Phoenix	1	0	1	19
S.A.	0	0	0	18
Utah	0	0	0	18

Four games, four wins. Nobody dropped a road game against weak opposition this week. Last year we were 15-4 in these games (three of those losses were when Blake was out). Taking care of business on the road against weak teams is the mark of a strong team.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	1	2	19
Dallas	0	0	0	22
Denver	1	0	1	21
Houston	1	0	1	22
L.A.	1	1	2	20
N.O.	0	0	0	22
Phoenix	0	0	0	22
S.A.	1	0	1	20
Utah	0	0	0	22

Portland and L.A. lost home games against winning teams this week, both to Western Conference rivals. At least we were competitive in ours.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	0	0	0	20
Dallas	0	1	1	18
Denver	1	0	1	18
Houston	0	0	0	18
L.A.	1	0	1	18
N.O.	1	0	1	18
Phoenix	2	0	2	17
S.A.	1	0	1	19
Utah	1	0	1	18

One loss, Dallas going down to Washington. In all probability, that is going to be flipped to a Cat 2 loss as the Wiz are likely to establish themselves as a winning team. Phoenix will like their start, but they have already played 10% of their easiest games.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	1	2	39
Dallas	0	1	1	40
Denver	2	0	2	39
Houston	1	0	1	40
L.A.	2	1	3	38
N.O.	1	0	1	40
Phoenix	2	0	2	39
S.A.	2	0	2	39
Utah	1	0	1	40

Portland, Dallas, and L.A. all dropped a home game. L.A. has played more than anyone, with 3, and didn't go on the road in preseason, either. This week, we'll see what happens away from L.A..

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	1	2	39
Dallas	2	0	2	39
Denver	1	0	1	40
Houston	1	1	2	39
L.A.	0	0	0	41
N.O.	0	2	2	39
Phoenix	1	0	1	40
S.A.	0	1	1	40
Utah	0	1	1	40

Western playoff contenders were 6-6 in road games for the week.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	2	3	39
Dallas	1	0	1	42
Denver	2	0	2	42
Houston	1	1	2	43
L.A.	1	1	2	42
N.O.	0	2	2	42
Phoenix	0	0	0	43
S.A.	1	1	2	42
Utah	0	1	1	44

As far as overall quality of opposition, we played 3 games against winning teams, and have fewer left than other teams. Phoenix still hasn't played a winning team.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	0	1	39
Dallas	1	1	2	37
Denver	1	0	1	37
Houston	1	0	1	36
L.A.	1	0	1	37
N.O.	1	0	1	37
Phoenix	3	0	3	36
S.A.	1	0	1	37
Utah	1	0	1	36

Last year we feasted on bad teams, going 33-5. That will be a big part of the story this year, whether we can match or even improve on that. So far, so good.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	18	6	8	1	3
Dallas	19	9	3	5	2
Denver	21	6	8	3	4
Houston	21	8	5	3	5
L.A.	20	7	11	0	2
N.O.	16	5	9	2	0
Phoenix	20	9	5	4	2
S.A.	16	6	8	1	1
Utah	19	7	5	6	1

Above is overall back to backs, categorized by the difficulty of the second game. Notice we have fewer of these than everyone except N.O. and S.A. Next is remaining back to backs where both teams are on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	1	1
Dallas	6	1	0	4	1
Denver	6	2	2	0	2
Houston	9	2	1	3	3
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	5	1	3	1	0
Phoenix	11	4	2	3	2
S.A.	7	2	3	1	1
Utah	8	3	2	3	0

You can see that Phoenix, while having plenty of back to backs remaining, has a very large number in which the opponents are also on a back to back. By subtracting the two, we get games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	14	6	6	0	2
Dallas	13	8	3	1	1
Denver	15	4	6	3	2
Houston	12	6	4	0	2
L.A.	19	7	11	0	1
N.O.	11	4	6	1	0
Phoenix	9	5	3	1	0
S.A.	9	4	5	0	0
Utah	11	4	3	3	1

Note that there are pretty significant differences here between L.A. and Phoenix or S.A. Our schedule is towards the more difficult end of the spectrum. Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	9	0	1	3	5
Dallas	14	0	2	8	4
Denver	17	0	2	12	3
Houston	11	0	0	4	7
L.A.	8	2	1	4	1
N.O.	14	2	1	5	6
Phoenix	11	0	0	5	6
S.A.	12	0	0	5	7
Utah	15	1	3	4	7

In this category, it is an advantage to have the larger number -- more times that you face a tired opponent.

Remember, a back to back does not guarantee anything. We lost to Denver when they were on a back to back and we weren't. We beat OKC when we were on a back to back and they weren't. On average, it increases the chance of victory by about 3-5% when your opponent is on a back to back. That's significant enough to matter, but it isn't going to swing that many games.

The Coming Week

First week of the season is over. Everyone has had their home opener, and all but L.A. have seen the road. Time to get down to real work.

Portland. Three home games, Atlanta, S.A., and Minnesota. The Spurs will be on a Utah/Portland back to back. Love for Minny is the only notable player expected to be missing. Two Cat 2s and a Cat 1. Since we've already dropped one Cat 2, it would be good not to let another get away. 2-1 won't be a disaster, but we should be looking to get all 3 of these.
Dallas. Home to Utah (Cat 2), then a back to back at N.O., followed by a home game against Toronto. They'll be looking for at least two wins. Both Utah and Toronto will be on a back to back when they get to Dallas.
Denver. "On the road again...." Four in five nights, back to back Cat 3s at Indiana and New Jersey, one night off, then consecutive Rocky Road Cat 4s at Miami and Atlanta. J.R. Smith is still out, which isn't going to help them. They did really well on a similar trip last year in February, but this will be a good test for them. The trip continues with two more road games next week.
Houston. Cat 4 at Utah, Cat 2 at home to L.A. (who will be on a back to back), and then a Cream Puff at home against OKC.
L.A. Cat 3 at OKC, Cat 4 Rocky Road at Houston (back to back), then home for a Cream Puff (Cat 1) against Memphis and a Cat 2 against N.O. Will be looking for at least three wins of the four.
N.O. Back to back tonight against the Knicks (Cat 3 Banana Peel), then home for a Cat 2 against Dallas (who will be on a back to back) and a Cat 1 against Toronto. Finally, they close the week with a Cat 4 at the L@kers.
Phoenix. Well, that was fun so far, but now.... On the road for five in seven nights. And they are tough. Cat 4s at Miami, Orlando (back to back), a night off then another Cat 4 at Boston, another night off, and then an alleged Cat 3 at Washington. They'll start next week with a back to back coming off the Washington game at Philadelphia. If they win two of the five on the trip, that would be a pretty solid accomplishment.
S.A. Just two games, both Cat 4 Rocky Roads, at Utah and then back to back at Portland. All the DeJuan Blair fanboys will get their dream -- Blair against Outlaw off the bench at PF.
Utah. Home against Houston tonight (Cat 2), then a tough back to back Cat 4 at Dallas (Utah couldn't win Cat 4 back to backs last year at all). Then, home games against San Antonio and Sacramento. Historically, their success has been built on being virtually unbeatable in SLC. That will be tested this week.

That's it for this week. Projections are coming in the days ahead. If work settles down, I'll try to do daily updates again like I did last year, but for now that isn't happening. Check out the Magnum P.I. as well.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids?

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post says that around 250 of the 400 have been sold.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

I'm really feeling let down

jscot — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 07:58:01 -0000

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Opening up at home, the first two games were supposed to be a breeze. Sure, the second game was against a team that a lot of people think is going to be a contender, but the first game was against a weakened opponent. And this team is supposed to be an elite team, most of the national pundits say so. If you are elite, you should win easily at home against weak opponents, and you should beat good teams at home, too.

I just don't get what is wrong. The offense was totally flat. And the team gave up so many fouls, the other guys just paraded to the free throw line.

Sure, there is a starting forward out, but this team is supposed to be deep. I just don't get it.

And I know that the big free agent acquisition hasn't had time to really meld into the team and learn the system yet. I get all that. But when you are an elite team, you ought to take those things in stride.

I don't really want to think about it much, but that game could be important in a tie-breaker later in the season. To make it up, these guys are going to have to go into their place and get a win, and that isn't going to be easy.

This season started with such high hopes. To have it all come crashing down in the second game, in a HOME game, is kind of hard for fans of this team to take. Is this team really elite, or not?

I mean, we know Dallas is supposed to be good, but come on....

Dear Nate,

jscot — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:01:31 -0000

I've appreciated our correspondence over the years. It pleased me to see that, right after I sent that memo to you that Andre might not be our starter, you began to speak up about that as well. It was good to see that our strategy of using Andre to make the second unit into a devastating weapon worked so well against the Rockets.

We've both had a lot of positive things to say about Travis and his potential over the years, and it was nice to see in the last game. Please mention to him that I'm proud of him, and that I hope he'll bring that defensive and rebounding effort on a consistent basis. One game doesn't a season make. But that was an "out of this world money" kind of game, I must say. Perhaps we can see a few more of them.

Nate, the real reason I'm writing, though, is about tonight's game. As you no doubt know, Denver played last night, a tough game against Utah, and got a nice solid win in their home opener. These kinds of games, home opener against a strong division rival, can leave some guys feeling rather drained emotionally. And, of course, physically drained as well, since Melo played 40 minutes, and other key players played over 30 minutes.

You will know that J.R. Smith and Renaldo Balkman are both suspended for this game. That means their depth is kind of suspect. Lawson is a nice backup, and so is Birdman, but they aren't deep. Foul trouble could be a problem for them, and when guys are tired, they tend to foul more (ask Greg about this from last year).

Nate, make them even more tired. I'm especially thinking about Carmelo, who played 40 minutes, and is a dangerous player. Please make sure that the guys understand that a valuable weapon in defending players like this is to wear them down on the other end. I'm thinking particularly about Martell.

Please, Nate, for this evening, have Martell constantly running off of screens. It is harder to fight through a screen then it is to run around it. And of course, if Martell gets tired from constant effort, we can have Travis do the same, or Rudy. I would like to see Anthony chasing Martell, and then chasing Rudy.

Keep that four seconds across mid-court thing going tonight. And please avoid Roy isolations except for final possessions in the quarter, or when Melo is guarding Brandon, or when we get down to the last six minutes or so. We want these guys, and especially Anthony, to work on the defensive end. We don't want Carmelo standing around and watching while a teammate tries to guard Brandon. He must work, work, work. We know he makes a lot of clutch shots at the end of the game. We want him to be very tired by then. If he gets tired sooner, clutch shots might be irrelevant.

We can wear these guys down. And their bench is so depleted, they won't be able to keep up with ours. Have Andre post up Lawson -- he's not used to defending a player like Andre.

We should be able to give these guys a whipping.

Oh, did I mention the weather? Seems like they had a foot of snow in Denver, which means the travel to Portland will have been worse for them. The more we push them, the more likely they are to fold. Fatigue will set in at some point -- the more we work them, the worse that will be.

Best of luck, Nate. You know how well my suggestions work out when you follow them. I don't expect you to follow them all, of course. You are the coach, and I am not yet ruler of the world, so you have some leeway on taking my suggestions. For now. Yet, should you ignore too many of my suggestions, I unfortunately might remember that later. World dictators (even the benevolent ones) have a tendency to remember things. Especially if it is things that led to their favorite team losing a game. Perhaps it should not be that way, but it is. I say this with the utmost consideration and respect for you, knowing that you will listen with the utmost attention to anything I say on the Internet about your duties.

Yours sincerely,

jscot (future ruler of the world and Internet bletherer supreme)

The Sched Ahead -- 10/26/09 Week One, Primoris Annus of Blazerium Dominatium

jscot — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:11:12 -0000

SUMMARY INFO

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Preseason overview

As a bonus, I have used the "jscot stupid sched projections" (c). These stupidly assume that a team will continue to win each category of games at the same rate they have won them to date. I will not explain why this is stupid. If you post stupid things and say they are stupid, you are exempt from explaining why they are stupid.

That should be a law. I will make it so when I rule the world. It would save so much time if people didn't have to try to explain their stupidity.

And so we begin. The First Year of Blazer Domination.

Nothing has changed in any of the tables, and I am both busy and lazy, so I refer you to the preseason overview if you want to review those. Again, I am using last year's finishing record for each team to determine categories. This initial weekly update is simply a look at this week, for games 10/27-11/1. I may or may not be able to provide daily updates for a while, but hope to keep the weekly ones coming.

There will be no jscot Stupid Sched Projections until every team has played at least one game in each category. The projections may be stupid, but they are not Division-By-Zero-Stupid.

The Coming Week

Portland. We start with two Jawbreaker (Cat 2) Home games against Houston and Denver (BtoB for them), then go on the road for a Cat 4 Rocky Road against Houston and a dangerous Banana Peel Cat 3 road game BtoB in OKC. All four are definitely games we could win, but we could also lose more than one of them if we don't bring a good effort right from the start. Balkman (and JR Smith, HT PoliSam) will be out when we play Denver. Scola should play but may not be 100% in the opener. Three wins would be a solid start for us, four would be superb.
Dallas. The Mavs open with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Washington, though Washington probably won't stay in Cream Puff territory this year, so that's probably not a fair assessment. Antawn Jamison is out with a shoulder injury. They follow with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at the L@kers, then the next night a Banana Peel Cat 3 at the Clips in which both teams are on a back to back. No travel for Dallas on the back to back, while the Clips play in Utah the night before, and it is their fourth in five nights (what a start!), so even though it is in LA you'd have to give Dallas the edge. Camby should be back by then, which would help the Clips. Josh Howard may not be ready for opening night.
Denver. They start with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Utah, then the next night are in Portland for a Cat 4 Rocky Road back to back. They close the weak/week (take your pick) with a Cat 1 Cream Puff home game against Memphis. Renaldo Balkman has a two game suspension to start the season. Later: JR Smith is suspended for the first seven games (thanks to PoliSam).
Houston. Open with a Cat 4 at Portland, then have a back to back Banana Peel Cat 3 at Golden State. Close the week with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Portland. They can't afford to start 0-3, and winning at Golden State is hard even when you aren't on a back to back (Azubuike is hobbled for the Warriors, but that is unlikely to have much impact), so expect them to throw everything at us in Houston if we get them opening night. Scola has been out with an ankle, but practiced Sunday for the first time, and should play. 1-2 would be a respectable week for them, 2-1 would be outstanding.
L.A. The Evil Empire starts with three home games, Cat 1 Cream Puff against the Clips (Camby may be out for the Clips -- and Blake Griffin as well, HT PoliSam), then two Cat 2s against Dallas and Atlanta. Pau is likely to miss the opener, but ought to be back after that. I would expect Dallas to have Josh Howard back by the time they face the L@kers. No real reason LA should lose any of these, but the Dallas and Atlanta games have the potential to be tough.
N.O. Pretty tough start, opening with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at San Antonio, home for a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Sacramento, then East for a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Boston. Two wins would be a great week.
Phoenix. The Suns begin their attempt to return to the playoffs with a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clips, who will be on a back to back after opening against the L@kers. They then go home for Cream Puff Home games against Golden State and Minnesota. They will be looking for a 3-0 start.
S.A. Interesting start, with a Jawbreaker Home game against N.O., then BtoB Cat 4 Rocky Road at Chicago. Finally, back home for a Cream Puff against Sacramento, who will be on a back to back themselves (brutal start for Sac this week, 3 in 4 nights, all on the road, at OKC, NO, and SA). The Spurs will be looking for at least two out of the three.
Utah. Just two games in opening week, Cat 4 at Denver then Cat 1 Cream Puff Home to the Clips, who will be on the third game of a four in five nights stretch. Ronnie Price is day to day. Balkman will be out for Denver in the opener.

Opening Night

Houston at Portland. Will the Rockets launch or fizzle? We see them for two of their first three games. Lots of interesting sub-plots here. Revenge for the playoff loss. Ariza coming back to Portland. The best center in the West (Yao) out injured, while the heir apparent, who was out injured when they came early last year, is on the rise. Scola killed us in the playoffs, and he's hobbled a little. A team that is hurting, but still has some players, and may become dangerous if T-Mac returns strong -- but we'll get them twice before he comes back. Great time to face and beat them. Will be much tougher in Houston, but we should definitely get this first one.

Washington at Dallas. The Eastern Hype team vs. the Western Hype team. Jamison out, Josh Howard doubtful. Both have some big changes from last year. Both have been hyped as greatly improved. I'm skeptical of both, though Washington should obviously be better than last year. Dallas should get this one. If they don't, it may tell us the hype about Washington is true, or that the hype about Dallas isn't, or both. If the Mavs do win, all it tells us is they are still a good team that won a home game.

LAC "at" LAL. Perhaps Pau will be out, Blake Griffin will be all-world for at least one night (questionable for opening night), Baron Davis will play the best game of his career, and Cheikh Samb will be forgotten. Perhaps.

Game on. Let's roll.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids?

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post stating that around 230 of the 400 have been sold.

From Dave's post:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

Why Mills got the Spot -- an Alternative Explanation

jscot — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:26:31 -0000

There's a possible explanation for the Mills/Udoka/Collins decision that I don't think has been mentioned yet. I thought it deserved a fanpost by itself because it perhaps triggers discussions about what kind of organization the Portland Trailblazers are running.

This explanation has nothing to do with internal politics, whether people or Vulcans are making the decisions, or whether Paul Allen said that he pays the money and he gets to decide.

Rather, it is a question about "culture".

The mantra for several years has been that the Portland Trailblazers want to "do things right." One of the things that the team has tried to emphasize is that this organization watches out for its players. Players are not just "hired hands", they are valued people who are taken care of as people.

Note the Pendergraph signing. Some people questioned whether we should have signed him after his injury.

Note the Martell signing after his injury. If he hadn't been extended, we might have been able to sign him for $2-3 million a year this summer -- would anyone have offered him much more than that? There was some head-scratching on Bedge when he was given that contract after his injury, it looked risky to some, but instead of leaving him hanging out to dry they took care of him. Perhaps it will cost the team a lot. Perhaps it will pay off. Martell is a happy player.

Note the comments KP has made about wanting to take care of Brandon and LaMarcus.

On a more controversial point, note the comments KP made about not wanting to have it on his conscience about playing Darius.

It has been part of the "culture" the team is trying to create that they take care of their players.

Patty Mills was injured in a Blazers practice. He hadn't yet been offered a contract. His injury almost certainly cost him the chance of getting a job in Europe this year -- their season has already started, and he still can't try out. He was stuck in a bad way -- out of school, perhaps unable to make a team anywhere this year. All because he got injured in a Portland practice.

Most comments on Blazersedge have been looking at this from a basketball perspective, but we've been told it wasn't for basketball reasons. Perhaps this was just about taking care of a player who got hurt in one of our practices.

Do we want players without a guaranteed contract to be willing to come work out over the summer? Yes, we do.

Do we want to have the reputation of an organization that takes care of players and doesn't leave them twisting in the wind if something goes wrong? Yes, we do.

Do we want players to be saying, "I tried out for Portland, got hurt while I was there, and they did nothing for me?" Obviously not.

The cost here is negligible, in NBA terms. It is not that there is a hard and fast ethical responsibility to keep Mills, but there are some real pluses from a cultural and organizational standpoint going forward. If we want to attract free agents, we want a reputation as an organization that takes care of people. If we want current players to sign reasonable extensions, we want them to feel good about this organization and the way they run their business, rather than demanding a premium because they hate the organization. We want this to be an organization that players want to be part of, rather than one where they can't wait to finish their contract so they can leave.

Players are people, not simply assets to be moved around on the basketball court. They like to be treated as people, and they like to see other players treated that way as well -- it gives them confidence that if the situation ever arises where they need to be treated as a person rather than a basketball asset, this team will be there for them.

If one of our centers goes down, and we can't swing a trade for a big man, we may have to pick up a D League guy who can probably play as well as Collins, anyway (I mean, really, we're talking Collins here, this isn't hard). To do so, we might have to end up waiving Mills after all. But if so, he'll have had a few pay days anyway, and everyone will know that we did what we could for him, but we had to get a big man.

Collins reportedly has a job in Phoenix. Ime has a job somewhere. Where was Patty Mills going if we cut him? Mills needed this spot more than the other guys did, and he needed it because he got injured on our court playing under the supervision of our coaches getting ready to play for our Summer League team. I don't know if that is what drove this decision or not, but it might be a big factor.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is all just because Paul Allen likes Mills (as some have speculated), and he made the decision. Maybe it's simply to save a few hundred thousand dollars, but if that were the case, the spot might just as well have been left open and save a few hundred thousand more. Maybe my idea here is all wrong, and the team stumbled on the right decision for the wrong reason, but the decision to keep Patty Mills is still the right one.

As a basketball fan, I think both Collins and Udoka were more likely to see the court this year, more likely to be able to contribute a little bit (though the chances of any 15th man contributing at all are pretty slim). In addition, I love Ime's game, his history, Ime the person, and it would have been great to see him on the team again.

But as a human being, I like retaining Patty Mills, and I would like my team's management a little less if they hadn't done so.

Dear Mr. Stern

jscot — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:03:42 -0000

Now that the preseason has been underway for a week, and every team has played a game, I thought I would just drop you this little note. There's a few things that just aren't entirely clear to me which I thought you might be able to help clear up. Since I know that, more than anything else, you are concerned about the fans having confidence in the integrity of the competition in the league, I'm sure these questions are near and dear to your heart.

I have noticed that Darius Miles apparently isn't on anyone's training camp roster, Mr. Stern. As a fan who has implicit confidence in the league office upholding equal opportunity for all, this concerns me greatly.

It was evident last year that Mr. Miles could have a home with a team that was looking to improve themselves on the court. He was able to gain a spot in the top 12 players (active roster) of one of the most respected of NBA franchises, a franchise manifestly motivated to put the best product on the court at all times. Clearly, this man's career is not over.

This makes it even more troubling that he cannot even gain a spot on the training camp roster of any team anywhere in the league. We know that training camp rosters can be up to 20 players. Surely, if Mr. Miles were one of the top 12 on one of your fine franchises last year, he can crack the top 20, nay, top 15 on at least one team now. In fact, we know he was so valuable last year that it was worth it for a team to put him on the active roster even while suspended so as to help him clear his suspension. Are we now to believe that he doesn't even warrant an invite to any team's training camp? One of your most esteemed GMs, in an unbiased statement which could have no ulterior motive, said, "Without question, he can play in this league."

Mr. Stern, it grieves me to ask this question, have the franchises of your league colluded to freeze out this fine player and gentleman? Has Paul Allen bribed them to join in his franchise's spurious allegations about Mr. Miles' health? I have searched for any other explanation of this, and can find none.

It is true that there are allegations about some off-court incident or other during the off-season. I find it hard to believe that Mr. Miles could be involved in any such incidents, but even if it were so, and Mr. Miles were to sadly be suspended, it is evident that teams would be willing to overlook such things and work with Mr. Miles to overcome such an obstacle. Based on recent history, it is obvious that inconveniences like this would not be a hindrance to resurrecting his career. We know that teams could have no ulterior motives in such actions, but be driven by strict self-interest in improving their teams.

Mr. Stern, I have always been impressed by the league's willingness to acknowledge that the league's own doctor was wrong in Mr. Miles' case. This was a wonderful maneuver. If the doctor had said that Mr. Miles was fit to play, he would still have been on Portland's books, so they could have prevented him from playing for other teams, and even traded him as an expiring contract. By the league doctor getting it wrong, Portland still pays his entire salary, became a luxury tax payer instead of recipient last year, and they lose cap space now. Any possibility of Portland getting any benefit from the millions being paid to Mr. Miles was taken away by this wrong diagnosis by the league doctor. This was actually a brilliant move on the part of the league which has obviously been beneficial, and gloriously, all negative consequences of this wrong diagnosis were born by Portland and none of them by the league. Truly, sir, you do know your business.. It has allowed Mr. Miles to further his career, for he is obviously fit and healthy and able to play -- but now, there appears to be a conspiracy denying him again. Will the league allow this to stand?

Sir, I am troubled by this situation. If Mr. Miles cannot even make a training camp squad, the conspiracy theorists will have a field day. Some may even float the ludicrous notion that Mr. Miles is not really healthy enough to play basketball, and that two of your franchises informally colluded to circumvent the intent of the CBA, one to hinder a competitor and the other to gain financially. They will even point out that one of these franchises not only received an increased share in luxury tax of approximately $196K, but also benefited by significantly increasing the disbursement to low revenue teams.

Such an absurd idea should never be countenanced, of course, but we know how things tend to spread, don't we? There were reports earlier this summer that one of your franchises had made a brilliant financial move by signing and playing Mr. Miles, not because he helped the team, but because of the financial impact on Portland and the increased luxury tax which that franchise received. You see how these things spread. Even people in Memphis are going to start to suggest their goal isn't winning.

Do you really want to see Portland make an appeal to have the Miles cap space reinstated? Do you realize, if they do, how difficult it will be to reject it while maintaining an appearance of even-handedness, if Miles can't even make a training camp roster? Surely, this must be avoided.

I would urge you to get to the bottom of this as soon as possible. Find out who is blackballing Mr. Miles. Inform the franchises that they are to play to win and so must give Mr. Miles his chance. It is not too late.

Sir, there is another matter which I feel I need to bring to your attention. It is the status of preseason games. Sir, I was always under the impression that these did not count. They are not included in season standings, statistics, etc. But I was overjoyed last year to learn, in fact, that they do count and a player can "gain credit" for games played even while a suspension is hanging over his head (for which they don't count). This lead me to think that the status of preseason games was changing, and that these non-counting games now "count".

This is a good thing. I like preseason games, because the off-season seems to drag for a long time, in some years anyway. But now, I am dismayed to find that not all preseason games are on LPBB.

Sir, how can we have confidence that we are being told the truth about who plays non-counting counting games if we cannot see them? How will we know which teams are helping players to overcome scurrilous attempts to medically end their careers? Again, the league's integrity could be called into question here. Perhaps you could take action of some sort.

Sir, there is one other thing I must call to your attention. We know how important it is that there be competition in the league, and that one team not be allowed to achieve total domination. This would be especially true if that team were not in a major media market, for financial reasons which it is understood you should not discuss publicly. That San Antonio situation will wind down soon, and it's about time.

Sir, I recognize the valiant attempts the league has made in the past year on this front, as one particular team seems to be building a powerhouse that could destroy any semblance of competition in the league for years to come. I appreciate the noble efforts of the league on this front, extending to your medical staff providing faulty guidance, and to interesting and varying interpretations of the import of preseason games. Truly, you are to be commended.

But sir, I watched the highlights on NBA.com the last two nights. This situation is not going away. Despite all you have done, it appears to be worsening. More is needed, sir. Their center is looking, well, pretty good, sir. And you did notice that they managed to parlay the cap space they did have into a pretty good player. Do you really want another "San Antonio" situation to develop, just as that one is nearing its end? More is needed, sir, and perhaps soon.

What happens if no team from California makes the Finals for years? Do we really want to see that happen? Do we?

With Warmest Wishes (www)

jscot of Blazersedge.com

Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto)

jscot — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:33:15 -0000

Dave started an interesting discussion on the front page when he asked:

What one thing do the Blazers need in order to maximize their success this season?

The thing that is so encouraging about this team is that there were so many suggestions. While most had to do with Greg Oden improving in one way or another, Blazer fans could come up with many things that could make this team much, much better than the team that won 54 games last year.

The eternal off-season drags on, so in an attempt to help eternity pass slightly more quickly, I thought it was time to list our reasons for optimism.

Cowardly disclaimers

Anyone who reads many of my comments knows I like disclaimers, so that I can always say, "Well, I said this wasn't a sure thing." So we'll start with some disclaimers:

The only defense for injuries is depth, and with a roster limited to 15 men, and economic realities (including the salary cap) no team can stockpile enough talent to safeguard against injuries derailing a season. There is no guarantee that injuries won't zap us hard this year.
No one can predict the future, so we are only dealing in probabilities and possibilities here.
None of the things that might happen below are guaranteed to happen. Some of them are likely. Some are unlikely. Each one could happen, and if it did, it would help us. The statistical probability of ALL of them happening is probably lower than the probability of some nutcase in Scotland ruling the world some day -- and we all know how probable that is.
Some of these are actually mutually exclusive. It is probably not possible for Martell to have a breakout year, Nic to improve enough to earn 30 mpg, and Rudy to earn 30 mpg as well.
I will not attempt to place precise probabilities on each of these things.

Probable Positives

(More likely than not to happen)

Individual Players

Brandon Roy will not regress in his game, but rather stay the same or improve. He's in his fourth year, healthy, and fit. Some players do regress in his situation, but it is unlikely that he will do so.
LaMarcus Aldridge will not regress -- same reasons as Brandon.
Greg Oden will see at least marginal improvement in conditioning, agility, defending without fouling, and offensive effectiveness. All of these should happen just by virtue of recovery from microfracture and an extra year of experience and coaching.
Joel Przybilla and Steve Blake may see reduced minutes, but are likely to provide similar productivity in their time on court. These players are both consistent veterans in their prime, with games based on skill and technique more than on athleticism -- there is little reason to expect any real decline in their games this year.
Andre Miller is likely to fit in well enough to be a very significant upgrade over the Sergio/Jerryd combo at backup PG.
Andre Miller is likely to perform at a high enough level to take some minutes from Blake and give us higher productivity during those minutes.
The addition of Miller is also likely to mean that we are much less vulnerable to injury to our starting PG than we were last year, when we only managed 9-6 while Blake was out.
Nic Batum is likely to improve at least marginally as an all-round player and as an offensive threat.
Rudy Fernandez is likely to improve at least marginally after a year of learning the ropes, adjusting to culture shock, etc.
Martell Webster is likely to provide a positive contribution by the end of the season, if not sooner.

Team Considerations

It is probable that the coaching staff has learned some things and is progressing.
Because most of the players have not changed, there is likely to be greater offensive synergy as they are more aware of each other's tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. Because we have an unselfish team, this synergy will increase year to year as players are together.
Team defense is likely to improve this year due to increased strength as young players mature, increased experience, improving execution of coaching instructions (same personnel, again), greater familiarity with opponent offensive tendencies, and greater awareness of each other. Note that every player except Steve and Joel should be expected to be better at carrying out his role within a team defense this year due to greater maturity, strength, and experience -- and Steve and Joel should not be any worse than last year.
Team confidence is likely to be much higher this year. We aren't wondering at the start of the year whether or not we'll make the playoffs. We know we are for real. We won't have that "deer in the headlights" moment in the first home playoff game -- we know what we have to do now, and we know we can do it. The "we are winners" mindset is contagious on a team, and it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
We will probably push the ball more and get at least a few more easy baskets per game.
Any injuries that keep a player out for less than 15 games are unlikely to significantly hamper us due to our tremendous depth. Nate is likely to be able to "chop and change" with twin towers, small lineups, or whatever is needed sufficiently that we can withstand the loss of almost any player and still be competitive against most teams in the league. We saw this last year when, even when Brandon went down, and with Martell out (our all-star and our other starting wing at the start of the season), we were able to go 2-2 against tough competition. Even when LMA was out we were competitive against the best for one game. This team is not worse than last year.

These are all, in my opinion, probabilities. It is very highly probable that enough of them happen to make us a significantly better team. In fact, it is a virtual certainty that we will be a better team unless we suffer a significant (as in season-ending) injury to Brandon, LMA, or Greg. The loss of Joel for much of the season would hurt badly if it happened, but it is likely that Greg's progress would significantly mitigate that loss, and the addition of Andre and progress of other players may well provide enough positive factors to fully negate it.

Real Possibilities

(I am placing here things that may happen, but which I consider reasonable possibilities. I do not consider them to be probable, but neither do I consider them unlikely.)

Individual Players

Brandon may improve still further offensively, as Andre creates opportunities for him to be even more effective, as he develops other facets to his game, and as the increased threat of other players makes him even more deadly.
Brandon may improve defensively as he has to carry less of the burden offensively.
LaMarcus may marginally improve as a low post defender and defensive rebounder.
Aldridge may become a greater scoring threat by taking the ball inside more, and possibly drawing a few more fouls as well.
Aldridge may become a significant threat on the fast break (we saw some of this near the end of last year).
Greg, instead of marginal improvement, may take a major step forward defensively, playing 25-28 mpg with significantly less foul trouble, patrolling the paint, blocking shots, and dominating the boards.
Greg may take a major step forward offensively by becoming a significant low post offensive threat, with one or two effective offensive moves developed over the summer.
Greg and/or Joel and/or LMA may become an offensive threat in the pick and roll with Andre.
Nic may take a major step forward offensively, averaging double digits in points and earning 30 mpg.
Martell may break out before the end of the season like many of us thought he would last year, shooting over 40% from 3 on 5-6 shots per game, with improved defense and aggressively taking the ball to the hoop.
Rudy may become a much more well-rounded offensive threat, knocking down mid-range jumpers and taking the ball to the hoop more often.
Rudy may become a better defender on and off the ball.
Steve may up his shooting and the rest of his game to the point where starting PG really is a difficult decision for Nate.
Travis may bring the rebounding the way he did in that one Houston game last year on an occasional basis, rather than once a year.
Travis may improve at taking the ball to the hoop occasionally, rather than settling for pull up jumpers all the time, thus improving his true shooting percentage and drawing more fouls.
Travis may improve marginally in his defensive rotations and on-the-ball defense.
One of Pendergraph, Cunningham, or Howard may provide an important contribution at some point in the season.

Team Considerations

We may become a very effective running team, pushing the ball up court off of rebounds and blocked shots, and creating a lot of easy baskets.
The veteran experience of Miller and Howard, and the increased experience of the rest of the team, may bring a real improvement in handling difficult situations like back to backs on the road, tough games at tough opponents, bouncing back from tough losses to strong opponents, coping with injuries, etc. These guys may help make us more "professional". We may lose fewer games due to injuries this year.
We may really learn how to take advantage of our shotblockers in a team defensive scheme.
Our early schedule gives us a possible opportunity to go on a tear at the start of the season and establish ourselves as one of the unquestioned elites of the league, with possible benefits in confidence, respect from referees, etc.
Last year, our Pythagorean predicted wins based on point differential was two greater than our actual wins. We actually underperformed in wins/losses last year by two wins. We may match or even exceeded expected wins this year.

Note that we will probably be a better team even if none of the things on this second list (the Real Possibilities) comes into play. And it is highly probable that at least some of the things on this list will happen, because most if not all of them are reasonable possibilities.

Unlikely, but Possible

There are too many things here to list. These are things that cannot really be expected, but are possible, and could have a significant impact on our fortunes if they do. Travis could become a consistent rebounder or a lock-down defender (some may laugh, but he has the physical tools, and it is easier to learn to be a lockdown defender than a good help defender). Rudy could be so good he wins Sixth Man of the Year. Everything could click for Jerryd by mid-season and he becomes a major rotation player for us at the point. Dante sets the world on fire, and takes Outlaw's minutes. KP steals a starter quality PF from someone to back up LMA, or makes a blockbuster deal to bring us a top 5 PG, or something. Martell knocks down 50% on threes, averages 15 ppg, and is a lock down defender, starting with game 1. Nic shows that he is going to make everyone forget Tayshaun Prince.

Any of those things could happen, but they aren't the kind of thing that you expect or plan on happening. We've got a great team without any of them -- but the fact that those possibilities are even out there, that KP actually has assets he could trade to pull off a blockbuster, that we have players with enough talent that we can even dream of such things, is just more reason for optimism, after the other reasons listed above.

Da BOM

This is a Blazer Optimist Manifesto -- "da BOM". We are not blind optimists, us Blazer optimists. We have sound reason to be optimistic. All of our reasons for optimism may not pan out. Life is like that. But we have enough probable reasons to be optimistic, and enough other possibilities that could greatly help us, that for Blazer fans, optimism is the real realism. It is far more realistic to expect this team to outperform last year's team than to expect it to underperform last year's. And last year, we tied for the second best record in the West.

This is not a prediction of post-season success. You have to be fortunate with injuries to have post-season success, and unless you are dominant, you may need some luck with matchups as well. Experience probably helps a little more in the post-season than in the regular season (though it helps in the regular season as well). This team is still very young, and while much more experienced this year than last, still far more inexperienced than LA or the Spurs.

This is, however, a recognition that in all probability, we have a great team this year. Not good, not even very good (we were very good last year), but great. We are one of the elites, one of the teams that people have to think about when they talk about teams that could win it all if they get some breaks. They may not know it now, but by the end of this year, they will know it.

We're ready to roll, and few teams that get in our path will come out with their ego unaffected and their losses column unchanged.

A Much Need Poll -- Travis, Hold or Fold?

jscot — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 21:03:56 -0000

I love Travis, and want him to stay a Trailblazer.

This is not blind love. I see that he doesn't consistently box out on the defensive boards. I see the defensive lapses and the apparently ill-advised shots (though more of them go in than you would think deserve to go in). I see that his passing isn't always the best.

Doesn't matter, though. There's a lot he brings. I'm not going to go into it, someone else can. I just wanted to put that stuff there to say that if you talk about those things in the comments, they aren't going to change my mind. I am glad Travis Outlaw is a Trailblazer, and want us to hold him.

If KP decides to fold, I'll assume he knows more than me. But this fanpost is about what I want. I don't even care if it costs us a couple of wins to keep him. Sure, if KP can trade him for LeBron, we should at least consider that. But Travis is a Trailblazer, and I hope he always will be.

If you read the Bedge much, you will see a lot more comments saying, "Trade Travis" than you will comments saying, "Keep Travis." Or at least, it seems like it. I'm betting that I'm in the majority, though -- that a lot more people around here want to hold on Travis than fold on Travis.

So if you are in the relatively silent majority that want to keep Travis, here's your chance to be heard. All it takes is a click of the button. You don't even have to comment if you don't want to. Even if all the comments on this thread are for dumping Travis, the numbers at the top will tell the real story.

And if you want to trade Travis, you'd better warm up your fingers and click away, because most Blazer fans love the guy, and you're going to lose this vote. But try to make it at least close enough so KP will think there will be SOME fans left if he trades Travis.

Poll

Keep Travis Outlaw, or trade him? Hold or fold?

Keep Travis

206 votes

Trade Travis

268 votes

474 votes | Poll has closed