SB Nation User Blog: jscot

We Don't Have a Clue (Edit -- NOW WE DO)

jscot — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:01:05 -0000

The last couple of weeks have been really fun for Blazer fans. We've had the privilege of agonizing over trades of draft picks, despairing over the guy(s) who we didn't pick, and wondering at whom KP was going to throw Paul Allen's money. Now, we get to rejoice or sink into depression (whatever floats your boat) that he's going to throw that money at Hedo.

This has all been so much fun I decided to return briefly from my work exile and come back and say this: we don't have a clue what KP is really going to do.

History

Who on the Bedge predicted the following:

The way we acquired LaMarcus Aldridge.
The way we acquired Brandon Roy.
The makeup of the Zach trade fascilitating the acquisition of James Jones and Rudy Fernandez.
The acquisition of the rights to Jerryd Bayless.
The Diogu/Ruffin trade.
etc.

Undeniable truth: KP is unpredictable, and few of his moves were signaled in the media in advance.

Rumors

Supposedly, we're trying to sign Hedo.
Supposedly, if we don't get him we're going to get Ariza.
Previously, there were rumors about Kidd.
Bibby has been mentioned.
Sessions has been mentioned.
Miller has been mentioned.
Trading for Nash has been mentioned.

Undeniable truth: Most of the rumors aren't true. Maybe the Hedo/Ariza rumors are true, and maybe they aren't.

What we Know for Sure

There are some things we do know:

We know that Blair was not considered an option even in the second round. We do not know why.
We know that quantity for quality trades are usually expensive. It cost 2 late second round picks (though they were very unlikely to be of use to us) to move up two spots in the first round. It cost Sergio and cash to move up to #31.
We know that KP saw value in moving from #24 to #22. We do not know why. Maybe it was part of a plan to move up further that didn't pan out, or to draft someone that went at #20 or 21 that he thought he could get at #22, or he thought Dallas might pick Claver, or he originally intended to draft Casspi and changed his mind, or for some other reason.
We know that KP cleared a little more cap room by trading Sergio and drafting a Euro.
We know that if he wanted someone who was drafted higher than #22, the cost of trading up was greater than he was willing to pay.
We know that there was no one available at #22 and that was not expected to be available at #31 that KP thought would significantly help us right now, so he drafted for the future.
We know that he saw some value in trading up to #31 which indicates they thought highly of Pendergraph.
We know that KP sees value in having the rights to high-talent Euros.
We know that we can relatively painlessly get to a salaries plus cap holds level of just under $50 million.
We know that the current NBA Salary Cap is $58.68 million, which means if it does not change, we have just under $9 million a year to offer, and we can increase to $10 million by renouncing Koponen and Freeland.
We know that the NBA Salary Cap is reported to be going down to $57.3 million. If this is true, to offer Hedo $10 million a year, we have to renounce the rights to Claver as well, or else make a trade that reduces our salaries in some other way. Therefore, we are unlikely to have actually offered Hedo $10 million a year until any such trade is actually nailed down -- the likelihood of renouncing Claver right now is low, and that is the only way we could make that offer right now. Given that there are not many teams that would want to make a trade that increases their salary commitment (and reduces ours), the likelihood of such a trade is low. Therefore, if we are going to pay Hedo $10 million a year, it will almost certainly be via a sign and trade that sends someone (and their salary) to Orlando -- which means, depending on who we send (or perhaps I should say "how much salary we send"), we may still have a little cap space to work with after acquiring Hedo.

Most of the other things that we "know" we don't actually know. We don't know that Portland wanted Psycho T, whatever Larry Miller said (was that said for an ulterior motive? Who knows?). We don't know why Blair was passed over (though we know that lots of GMs and/or team doctors made the same assessment as Portland, and they probably know a lot more than even the most knowledgeable fans). We don't know what they really thought of Lawson. We don't know if KP really tried to move higher in the draft or not. We don't know whether the guys they got were really the guys they targeted all along (we know Nate said that, but he would, wouldn't he?).

We don't know if we've made a firm offer to Hedo, and if we have, none of us really has a clue what the terms of that offer are. We don't know if we've made offers to anyone else. We don't know what Rudy has said to Portland, or what he really thinks. We don't know if KP has talked to NJ about Harris. We don't know if NJ is willing to shop him or not (I personally doubt it). We don't know if KP has talked to Sessions' agent, though Sessions' agent ought to have been calling KP, if he's doing his job.

What Could be Happening re: Hedo

KP could be targeting Shane Battier. If Houston is playing hard to get, he could be using Turkoglu negotiations as a ploy to send the message to the Rockets that we don't have to deal with you, so you'd better quit the silly demands or we'll just sign Hedo and you can just drift into Yao-less mediocrity without any of our young talent.
He could be plotting an unbalanced trade for someone else and is again using Hedo as leverage to pressure potential trading partners.
KP could have a deal in place for Devin Harris for Steve, Rudy, and Travis. If Rudy goes, Martell becomes our backup SG, and with Travis also gone we are suddenly thin at SF. Hedo could be the key to getting Harris without devastating the rest of our lineup -- both Martell and Nic can backup the two wing spots.
We may have offered Hedo $8 million a year for 4 years, telling his agent he won't get more than that anywhere else, and the agent may be spreading rumours of more than that to try and get Toronto to increase their offer.
We may be after Ariza for $6 million a year for 3 years, and allowing all the Hedo talk to go forward without any denials as a negotiating tactic with Ariza's agent.
We may be after Artest for $6-7 million for 3 years. How many teams are able to go over the MLE for Artest, especially teams that give him any chance at a championship?
We may be targeting Jason Kidd as our real free agent target, and trying to get him down into the $8 million for 3 years range. By allowing the Hedo rumors to run wild, you let Kidd know that actually, there aren't very many teams with cap space, and certainly not that many who want an old guy, so you'd better play ball on our terms or we'll spend our money on Hedo.
KP may be planning a sign and trade to acquire Hedo that will still give him some cap space for another deal.

Are any of those things actually happening? Who knows?

A Buyer's Market

Ultimately, it's a buyer's market right now. There are few teams with cap space, plenty of free agents wanting contracts, and plenty of teams who would like to swing a deal to dump some salary.

In a buyer's market, when hardly anyone has enough money to buy and lots of people want to sell, you can get a great house for a good price. Find a house you really like, one that is really good for your family, and one where the current owner needs to sell. Make sure the owner's agent is aware that there are a lot of other really good houses out there, and there are others that you really liked, and you could buy them. But, you like this house, too, enough to buy it if the owner will take your offer. The owner knows if you walk away he may not be able to find a buyer who is even able to offer close to what you are offering. Suddenly, the presence of all those other houses makes your offer look a lot better to him than it would have. He may hate it, he may think you are ripping him off, but he has to take the offer because he may not get another one this good for two years.

KP is smart enough to know he is in a buyer's market. He holds more cards than anyone else right now -- for free agents, who else has both cap space and the ability to offer a realistic possibility of a ring? For trades, who else has cap space AND can offer an abundance of young talent at low salaries or even Euro talent that costs nothing in salaries or luxury tax right now when times are tough?

Somewhere out there is a house KP is trying to buy. Is Hedo the one he wants, or is he just being floated to cause some GM or other agent to panic, and say, "Portland is going to blow their cap space on Hedo, and then we're stuck"?

It might be that KP and Nate think Hedo will make us great. This could all be misdirection. A Turkoglu signing may just be the precursor to a trade which is even bigger. We all should just enjoy the ride, because we don't know what they are really doing. There are options within options, and those options have options.

We don't really have a clue.

Poll

Are you enjoying the ride this off-season?

Too good to pass up

jscot — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 06:30:43 -0000

New projections

1	L.A.	64.9
2	Denver	54.3
3	S.A.	53.3
4	Portland	52.2
5	Houston	51.5
6	N.O.	50.2
7	Dallas	48.1
8	Utah	47.9
9	Phoenix	45.3

Comments:

1. Heh, heh. Ha! HA, HA, HA! What a day.

2. Note the projected 1-8 pairing. If Phoenix wins in Dallas, Utah will be feeling the heat as much as anyone....

3. Memphis has won 4 of 5. Too bad about that one loss....

4. All the national pundits predicting a high finish for Utah should have been looking at the upcoming schedule, instead of looking at their makeup in the mirror. Those guys still can't beat good teams on the road, and can't even beat bad teams at home on a back to back.

Projections after 3/31

jscot — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 05:40:08 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	64.5
2	Denver	53.9
3	S.A.	53.0
4	Houston	52.4
5	Portland	51.9
6	N.O.	50.7
7	Utah	49.0
8	Dallas	47.9
9	Phoenix	44.5

No April Fool -- we are a very, very good team.

No April Fool -- lack of playoff experience is not going to be a major issue, because we are getting used to playoff-type pressure and handling it well.

No April Fool -- we start April one game behind the Spurs and Rockets, and only 1 1/2 games out of the #2 seed, in a season where our starting SF has missed the entire year, our starting PG was down for a key stretch of games, and Oden has missed a bucketful of games as well.

Good things that happened yesterday:

Turn out the lights on Utah's chances of finishing ahead of us -- not happening. Top six seed nailed down.
We are now 20 games over .500. Two years ago, we finished 20 games under .500.
We were facing a tired team and we didn't give them a chance, we put them to the sword from the start.
Greg Oden scored a point a minute, got a rebound every minute and a half, and blocked a shot every six minutes. If we can cut the fouls and extrapolate that production to, oh, maybe 30 mpg, I think I could live with that for a while. Like, say, maybe 15 years.
We sent another message to playoff opponents not to expect a win in Portland.
HA! And HAHAHA!!! Nice game in Texas last night. Ha, ha! A win in either place in Texas now gives us a reasonable shot at a top 3 seed.
We got a reminder not to take OKC lightly.
N.O. is likely to face a tougher game in the last game of the season -- now there is a good chance that final game in S.A. will matter very much to the Spurs.
HA! And HAHAHA!!! Nice game in Charlotte last night. Ha, ha! If someone else knocks us out of the playoffs, I hope the L@kers make it to the Finals -- and meet Charlotte, who by some miracle make the playoffs and go all the way through to the Finals. Then, L.A. could have the embarrassment of losing the Finals to a team with a losing record. There must be some voodoo expert in Charlotte who has their number. Tonight, on a back to back, the L@kers could lose their third straight, matching our longest streak this season.
L.A.'s loss increases the chance that their last few games could be dead games for them -- behind Cleveland, ahead of Orlando/Boston. That could help us when they come to town, but also help Denver when they go there, and Utah in the last game of the season. Very likely, they will badly want to beat us and Denver, though.

Credit to the Knicks for coming back and making Denver earn it. Has to be hard to do that at altitude on a back to back. Credit to the Kings -- they stole that one from you. But we appreciate the effort, and you burned up some of their luck -- maybe it will fail them in their next game. Credit to the Timberwolves for something or other, but I can't really think of anything right now. It's funny, I said it wouldn't be surprised if we got a gift, but it came in the most unlikely place.

Is there any life left in Phoenix, or did the Kings kick it out of them? A Suns win tonight would delay our "qualified for the playoffs" celebration -- and every Blazer fan who understands seedings hopes they win anyway. Losses in Phoenix tonight and L.A. on Friday (both very possible), combined with a Portland win in OKC (possible but not easy), would put us ahead of the Rockets when we arrive on Sunday.

Also watch Hornets at Clippers. It's a back to back for the Hornets, and their depth is really hurting right now with all the injuries. West, Paul, and Butler all played very long minutes in Sacramento. Chandler and Stojavic are still out. A N.O. loss would be no shock in this one at all. Lose this, and you can stick a fork in them -- they are done as far as a high seed is concerned.

One more "No April Fools". This may be the last projections update this year. Over the next month I'll be working 6 days a week, 12-14 hours a day. That may continue for 3 months. This happens from time to time, and then I get bucketloads of free time when the project is done. But until then, it is brutal. I may pop back on Sundays, but unlikely to happen any other days.

It's been fun.

Projections after 3/30

jscot — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 08:40:30 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	65.5
2	S.A.	53.9
3	Denver	53.9
4	Houston	52.4
5	Portland	51.6
6	N.O.	50.4
7	Utah	49.1
8	Dallas	47.4
9	Phoenix	44.5

Key numbers today? 42:37. 42:33. 36:27. 32:13.

Playing time last night for: Carlos Boozer. Deron Williams. Ronnie Brewer. Paul Millsap.

See how they run....

Make them run more, move the ball on offense and make them work to keep up. See how tired those legs get by the middle of the third quarter. Heavy legs, burning lungs = missed jumpers, defensive breakdowns, careless turnovers. Make it happen.

Dallas @ Minnesota -- the Mavs have lost plenty of games like this, only 9-8 on the road against losing teams.

N.O. @ Sacramento -- Hornets are struggling with injuries, Sacramento is loose and playing spoiler, could be fun.

OKC @ S.A. -- stranger things have happened, but this would rank right up there.

NY @ Denver -- ditto.

No great surprise if we get one gift out of those games (any help would indeed be a gift), but the only game that really matters tonight is in Portland.

Projections after 3/29

jscot — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 08:04:02 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	65.5
2	S.A.	53.9
3	Denver	53.9
4	Houston	52.4
5	Portland	51.6
6	N.O.	50.4
7	Utah	48.9
8	Dallas	47.4
9	Phoenix	44.5

Well, the battle for #2 is still alive, but there are probably only two teams in it. Nice win for N.O. -- amazing FT shooting.

The Suns went down in the west, and that story is over. They can still play spoiler, though -- here's hoping they can knock off Houston when the Rockets come to town. We could be ahead of the Rockets by the time we face them on Sunday, but we've got a couple tough tests ahead of us.

I think anyone who thought Dallas was likely to catch us can put that one to rest. It could happen, but they'll need an almost miracle finish. Anyone who thought N.O. was dead can also put that one to rest. We still should beat out the Hornets -- their closing schedule is too tough. But we'll have to beat them out, they aren't going to roll over and die.

Utah, Utah, Utah. They begin their schedule of death tonight -- 10 games, six on the road, all six against winning teams, two of which are back to backs. Four home games, all against losing teams, but two of them are back to backs. The first of those two is against Minnesota on the fourth of five nights after a brutal game at Denver the night before. The second is against G.S., whose style is really hard to face on a back to back.

We have played hard all year and won enough games against the toughest part of our schedule to give us a significant edge over the Jazz. Tomorrow, we play them, on a back to back, after they spend all evening tonight chasing the D'Antoni dash up and down the court.

Lose this game, and you give them hope -- hope that they can win the tough games on their schedule. Hope that they can pass us in the seedings battle. Lose it, and you give back a lot of that edge you've built up over the course of the season. You go on the road with only 3 wins out of your last six. A loss tomorrow, and we drop behind Utah and New Orleans in the standings. The schedule would still give us a chance to make that up -- a very good chance against Utah. But it would make it a lot tighter than it is now. Our likely prospect is 50-51 wins, maybe 52, and a fifth or sixth seed.

Win this game, and you tear the heart out of them. They still can't win on the road against good teams. They start out their schedule of death doing exactly what is expected -- losing. And they have no great prospects of the losing stopping. They drop behind us in the standings, with a remaining schedule that gives them virtually no chance to make it up. Win this game, and Utah will almost certainly face either the L@kers or Spurs in the first round, without home court advantage. A good chance it will be the L@kers, since Utah still has to go to Dallas, too. I like that prospect. L@kers vs. Jazz in the first round.

They are all big games. You just don't want to lose any of them. But just like the Phoenix game, this one is a chance to effectively bury one of our rivals. Bring that intensity that showed in the Phoenix/L.A./S.A. games, and put these guys away. Keep sending out that message -- you don't want to have to play playoff games in Portland.

Projections after 3/28

jscot — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 06:25:45 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	66.2
2	S.A.	54.5
3	Denver	53.9
4	Houston	52.4
5	Portland	51.6
6	N.O.	49.9
7	Utah	48.9
8	Dallas	47.9
9	Phoenix	45.4

Little movement from yesterday, no unexpected results. Too bad, I was really hoping for a Warriors upset over the Nuggets. Only hopes now, are for Utah to win in Denver, Denver to drop their back to back at Minnesota, or NY and/or OKC to pull a huge upset in Denver. We probably need two of those to happen to catch the Nuggets. Don't bet your house on even one of those happening.

While there was little change in the projections today, that's not a bad thing, when you look at where we stand. Only 9 games left, and we're still projecting more than a game and a half ahead of 6th. Every game that goes by without diminishing that gap increases our chances of maintaining it.

We remain behind Houston, but we likely aren't finishing ahead of Houston unless we win there. In all probability, a loss there means we finish behind them (or tied, with the tiebreaker going to them). In all probability, a win there means we finish ahead of them (or tied, with the tiebreaker going to us). Funny how one game might determine so much. Would be nice to send a message that we can win on their court going into the playoffs.

Of course, N.O. and Utah are still capable of making a run. But the Hornets had better start that run today at home against the Spurs, or I think you can forget about them challenging our seeding. Their run-in is too tough -- they can't afford to drop games.

Keep an eye on Phoenix. They should beat the Kings, but it was a tough overtime loss last night. We want them to win, and Dallas to lose in Cleveland, so that Phoenix is still hopeful and motivated for Houston. If Houston wins that road game at Phoenix, they are going to feel pretty secure in that 4th seed and thinking about passing Denver for #3. If Phoenix wins it, it just gets more and more fun.

Projections after 3/27

jscot — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 08:10:48 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	66.2
2	S.A.	54.5
3	Denver	53.8
4	Houston	52.3
5	Portland	51.5
6	N.O.	49.9
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	47.9
9	Phoenix	45.5

Well, the NW division is almost certainly gone. The Nuggets basically won it with their sweep in Florida before the All-Star break. Their remaining schedule was too easy. There's still a chance, but they have to drop at least one should-win game, and we have to have no more slip-ups.

That's too bad. On the other hand, it is now looking like a straight battle between us and Houston for the 4-5 spots. The Hornets have a lot of tough games left, and aren't playing well. Utah is playing well but the schedule is brutal. Dallas has had some good wins and some bad losses, and has injury trouble.

Dallas' loss last night virtually guarantees they won't be catching us. It has another positive impact as well -- it allows Phoenix to keep believing. The Suns play Dallas one more time, so they have to feel they have a chance. As long as they keep believing, they are very dangerous -- which means they might dish out some unexpected losses to some other teams. Tonight in Utah will be a real slugfest. It would be great if the Suns could win at least their next 3. If the Suns win in Utah and Sacramento, and Dallas loses at Cleveland, it gets very close.

Keep an eye on the Nuggets tonight as well. Back to backs aren't easy, even at home. When they are against a team like Golden State, they are harder. They should win, but this can be tricky -- they could give back what they gained against Dallas. If so, we're still alive in the NW. Probably won't happen, but you never know.

Projections after 3/26

jscot — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 06:56:16 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	66.0
2	S.A.	54.3
3	Denver	53.1
4	Houston	52.3
5	Portland	51.5
6	N.O.	50.8
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	48.4
9	Phoenix	45.5

Well, that was satisfying. Put them away early enough to rest their starters for Utah.

Memo to League: Portland is back in the playoffs, and they earned it.

Memo to LMA doubters: Don't give up on this dude yet.

Memo to Denver: Don't assume this division race is over yet.

Memo to Phoenix: You still have a chance, but I highly recommend that you win in Utah on Saturday. This recommendation is purely altruistic on my part. Really. There are no ulterior motives behind this suggestion, none at all.

Memo to Houston, Denver, and N.O.: You really do want to finish ahead of Portland, so you don't have to play them without home court advantage in the first round.

Memo to defensive coaches: Don't count on packing it in against Portland when Rudy Fernandez is in the game.

Memo to Blazer fans: Did we really just blow out a Western contender with Gregzilla combining for 2 rebounds in 45 minutes? Yes. Yes, we did. We're still in the thick of the 4-6 seeding battle, with a reasonable shot at 3.

Memo to Sergio fans: Celebrate!

Memo to Jerryd fans: Celebrate and Wait!

Tonight, the Hornets have a real Banana Peel at NY. This could be a very tough one for them with their injury problems. Drop this, and they can probably forget a top four seed.

Denver plays at Dallas. Dallas has an opportunity (thanks to us) to extend their lead on Phoenix, and threaten Utah, at least, in the seedings battle. Should be a fun game -- either result provides benefit to us. If Dallas wins, we catch Denver in the loss column. If Denver wins, it solidifies our lead over Dallas, giving them a home loss to offset the one we dropped to Philly. Either way, it helps us.

Projections after 3/25

jscot — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 07:49:41 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	65.9
2	S.A.	54.3
3	Denver	53.1
4	Houston	52.3
5	Portland	51.1
6	N.O.	50.8
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	48.4
9	Phoenix	45.7

I GOOFed

I had one Phoenix game mis-entered. As a result, I've been approximately 1 win too low on my projections for them for the last week and a half. Fixed today.

Utah misses a chance to bolster their road resume, Phoenix stays alive. A win tonight for Phoenix would be huge. A loss doesn't finish their chances, but it finishes their chance of catching us. It also solidifies the gap between us and Utah and Dallas. For Utah to finish ahead of us, they will have to win in Portland after playing NY the night before.

We also have a chance to really put pressure on N.O. after their home loss to Denver. With their injury problems, they are in danger of dropping back into the 6-8 conversation, rather than 3-6. If we take care of business, we're now almost certainly a top five seed. Their last seven games are brutal.

On the other hand, Denver's win makes it harder for us to win the division. We really need them to drop at least one of their two remaining games this week.

Manu is back, and the Spurs didn't even need Duncan to win in Atlanta. When Duncan is out, Parker totally dominates.

Get this win tonight. The Suns have owned the NW this week -- at home. Now they are on the NW trail. If they are going to win at a NW team to keep themselves alive, let it be at Utah on Saturday.

Projections after 3/24

jscot — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:48:12 -0000

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday

Projections

1	L.A.	65.9
2	S.A.	53.7
3	Denver	52.4
4	Houston	52.3
5	N.O.	51.5
6	Portland	51.1
7	Utah	48.8
8	Dallas	48.4
9	Phoenix	44.0

As expected, Utah beats Houston. Tonight is a big game for them, even bigger for Phoenix. Expect playoff intensity from both teams.

The Spurs almost dropped a home game to G.S. Too bad, that really would have thrown the two seed wide open. At Atlanta tonight on a back to back -- tough game.

Denver @ N.O. A Denver loss puts us right back in the division hunt, and significantly ratchets up the pressure on them to win in Dallas on Friday. A N.O. loss probably gives us an edge over them for the run-in -- it could mean the difference between a four and five seed.