SB Nation User Blog: jscot

Daily Update and Projections -- Games of 12/21

jscot — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:00:43 -0000

Explanation of categories and projection methods in my latest Sched Ahead weekly update.

Yesterday:

Probably not playoff related, but Ime was a key trigger in a 35 point comeback for the Kings against the Bulls. Too amazing to neglect to mention.
The Jazz follow in our footsteps, losing a Cat 4 Rocky Road to the Magic. Dwight hit 11-14 FTs -- is that legal? Vince Carter did marginally better against them, with 5-15. Since the Jazz hardly ever win a Cat 4, this didn't hurt them much in the projections.
The Spurs blew out the Clippers in a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home. Of interest -- DeJuan Blair started in place of McDyess at center, and was the only Spurs starter not to score in double figures (they also had 3 in double figures off the bench). No change in their projections -- the spreadsheet gave them a 100% chance of a win, due to their perfect record so far in Cream Puff games.
The notable game was at Phoenix, where Cleveland ran away from the Suns in the fourth, Phoenix taking their first home loss of the season in a tough Cat 2. Cleveland was on a back to back, having lost to Dallas the night before, but it didn't seem to bother them. The Suns hope to have Barbosa back sometime this week. This means a huge hit to their projections, as they were 2-0 in Cat 2s, and thus projected to win all of their remaining Cat 2s. Now, they are only projected to win 2/3 of them.

Projections:

L.A. 66.5 wins.
Dallas. 58.5 wins.
Denver. 57.5 wins.
Phoenix. 56.1 wins.
Houston. 54.4 wins.
Utah. 48.7 wins.
Portland. 48.6 wins.
OKC. 43.4 wins.
S.A. 42.6 wins.
N.O. 39.4 wins.

Today's Games:

Portland at Dallas. Cat 4 Rocky Road for us, Cat 2 Jawbreaker for them. Dirk listed as day to day. If we win this, Christmas definitely came early this year.
Clippers at Houston. Cat 1 Cream Puff for the Rockets. Clips are on a back to back. Landry is listed as day to day. If you are going to take a bite out of someone, perhaps the elbow isn't the best place.
"Blunder" at L@kers. Cat 4 for the "Blunder", Cat 2 for L@kers. If L.A. wins, that will give OKC a losing record, and thus the Cat 2 will become a Cat 1. L@kers return home after a long road trip. This is the first of a brutal back to back for the "Blunder", they play at Phoenix tomorrow.

So, three games of interest, five Western playoff contenders in action. No one expects us to win this game, so nothing to lose. These guys are very good, but have lost home games to some weaker teams (Washington, G.S), so don't write us off. The "Blunder" have some easy games ahead, so it would be good to open that gap wider.

Sched Ahead for 12/21/09, Week Eight -- Now with PROJECTIONS!!!

jscot — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:20:47 -0000

Yes, it has come, the moment you've all been waiting for, the return of the jscot Stupid Sched Projections (c)! Be still, my beating heart!

All experienced Bedgers know that the methodology of these projections is completely suspect, generating numbers that no one could intelligently accept as indicative of anything. But they are OUR numbers, and we love them. That's just the way we roll.

Rookie Bedgers may not know about the projections. Never fear, jscot is here, and I will explain them after the jump.

TIRED OLD SUMMARY INFO YOU GET EVERY WEEK

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road). The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

EXCITING NEW SUMMARY INFO ABOUT THE PROJECTIONS

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections were more accurate last year than any expert prognostications or anything generated using advanced metrics. I am convinced that this is primarily because the stars aligned right, I sacrificed my third-born, and someone who believed in these was sticking pins in voodoo dolls at important moments to make it come out right. (It is also because I constantly updated them, so the changes were so gradual that people didn't notice how wrong they had been earlier. But don't tell anyone that.)

The projections work very simply. I look (well, actually, my spreadsheet does, I'm much too lazy to do this myself) at the games that each team has played so far in each category of games. Using my high-powered Excel expertise, I calculate a winning percentage for that team in that category of games (don't try this at home, kids, you might sprain your mouse finger). I then multiply that percentage by the number of remaining games in that category, to calculate a projected number of wins from that category in remaining games. Adding those projected wins to the wins already gained, I have a total projected number for that category.

Now, here's where it gets really tricky, so listen carefully. I add up the projected total wins from each category and I have the Stupid Sched Projection.

This is a "projection" because it is based on extrapolating past performance. It is a "sched projection" because it is based on the schedule of remaining games. "But, WAIT!" you might say, "why is it stupid?"

How is it stupid? Let me count the ways:

Small sample size. Phoenix has played precisely two Cat 2 games so far. How can two games predict how they will play one quarter of their games this season? Only in the realm of "stupid" projections can they do so.
Ignores long term injury effects. Portland has one Cat 4 win, at OKC. Greg and Travis and Rudy played in that game. How can we use a game in which those guys played to project games in which they won't play? This is stupid!
Ignores in-season development. Rookies often progress as the season goes along, other players have a hot start but fade. This assumes teams will play the same at the end of the season as they played at the beginning of the season. This never works out to be the case.

So why are we wasting our time with these?

Because a lot of people like them. Nuff said.
Because they don't get caught up in a team getting hot at home or against weak competition. Last year, everyone started to decide Utah was going to win the division when they caught up to everyone, winning a lot of games at once. The spreadsheet knew -- six of their last ten were Cat 4 games, and they had been terrible all year in those games. They went 1-5 in those six games, and dropped to third in the division. The spreadsheet is better than W/L record. The spreadsheet is better than home/away records -- because it knows not just whether or not you were at home, but also whether you played good teams or not.
Because it gives us something to talk about besides why Nate played Blake so much, and some of us are getting tired of rehashing it over and over. We don't KNOW why, for crying out loud! Let's drown our sorrows after tough road losses in some stupid spreadsheet numbers that mean nothing, instead. You can't get mad at the dumb spreadsheet, it is what it is.

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Milwaukee is back below .500, so their games are recategorized. They change every week. Wish they'd make up their mind. Actually, I think they have, now. OKC barely stayed above water, right at .500. N.O. pretended they were going to make a run at .500, but it didn't last. If they don't get there this week, they might not until mid-January -- they have a tougher stretch coming up.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (3-1), a great week. Won a Cream Puff (Cat 1) at home against Sacramento, a tough Cat 2 at home against the Suns, and then split the Cat 4 Rocky Road back to backs in Florida. Out of the six game stretch starting with Phoenix, two wins would have been a good performance -- and we already have that, with a chance to do better.

Dallas (3-1). Another good week for the Mavs, starting with a Cat 1 win at home against the Hornets, then a nice Cat 4 at OKC, before splitting Cat 2 Jawbreakers against Houston and Cleveland. The Houston loss was more of a tooth-breaker, I suppose, with Landry sinking bits of his teeth into Dirk's elbow. The Mavs beat the Cavs without Dirk, don't know if he'll be back for our game this week or not.

Denver (2-2) didn't have a very good week, winning a couple Cat 2s at home (OKC, Houston, both teams on a BtoB), but then slipping on two Banana Peel Cat3s in a row, at N.O. and Memphis.

Houston (3-1) had a nice week. Adelman cried about four straight back to backs, but they came out of the first two (a 4 in 5 nights) with three wins. The only loss was a BtoB Cat 4 Rocky Road in Denver, with wins at home vs. Detroit (Cat 1 Cream Puff), at Dallas (Cat 4), and home to OKC (Cat 2 Jawbreaker, both teams BtoB).

L.A. (4-0) proved that, at least against bad teams, they CAN win away from Staples, with four Cat 3 Banana Peel wins, on consecutive BtoBs with two days off in between. Victims -- Bulls, Bucks, Nets, Pistons.

N.O. (2-2) had an up and down week, playing a game in every category, winning at home and losing on the road. The Cat 4 was at Dallas to start the week, the Cat 3 Banana Peel was at Toronto to end it. In between, home wins vs. Detroit (Cat 1, Pistons were on a BtoB) and Denver (Cat 2) kept them respectable.

The Blunder (1-3) had a tough week and paid the price, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Detroit, but losing two BtoB Cat 4s at Denver and Houston (Rockets also on a BtoB) AND a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home to Dallas.

Phoenix (2-1) had a decent week, opening with a good Cat 2 win at home vs. the Spurs and finishing with a Cat 1 Cream Puff win against Washington. In between, they went on the Rocky Road to Portland, where a Byrannosaurus Rex tore their hearts out and stomped all over them.

S.A. (2-1) pretty much did what you'd expect, losing a Cat 4 at Phoenix, winning a BtoB Cat 3 at G.S., and then winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Indiana.

Utah (2-2) had a bizarre but not quite terrible week. They started by dropping a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home to Minnesota. How could a good team lose at home to the Timberwolves? Ask Denver, I guess. But Utah is 0-2 against them which is impressive, in a not good way. Anyway, the Jazz then went out on the road and won two of three, losing as expected at Atlanta (Cat 4), but taking care of two Cat 3 Banana Peels, at NJ (Nets on a BtoB) and Charlotte (Jazz on a BtoB).

New Orleans and Utah (at home) each took a loss to losing teams, Denver took two for the second straight week.

Helped themselves: Portland, Dallas, Houston, L.A.

Held position: Phoenix, S.A.

Hurt themselves: Denver, N.O., Blunder, Utah.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	5	7	12
Dallas	4	2	6	13
Denver	2	2	4	16
Houston	4	5	9	11
L.A.	2	2	4	17
N.O.	0	8	8	14
OKC	3	5	8	12
Phoenix	3	7	10	9
S.A.	1	5	6	15
Utah	1	6	7	14

Portland (at Miami), Dallas (at OKC), and Houston (at Dallas) got the only Cat 4 wins of the week. Most teams have a few more of these left than we do, which could help us down the road.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	3	8	14
Dallas	6	2	8	14
Denver	5	6	11	10
Houston	5	2	7	14
L.A.	5	0	5	15
N.O.	2	3	5	14
OKC	3	1	4	17
Phoenix	5	2	7	15
S.A.	2	1	3	17
Utah	4	1	5	15

Denver has played far more road games against weak teams than anyone else -- and has lost their last four in this category. Having most of their remaining road games be against winning teams could catch up to them. Last year, the Nuggets only lost six games all year in this category, and they've already matched that this year.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	3	7	13
Dallas	5	2	7	13
Denver	6	0	6	14
Houston	4	4	8	13
L.A.	6	2	8	12
N.O.	4	1	5	16
OKC	1	6	7	14
Phoenix	2	0	2	17
S.A.	1	4	5	14
Utah	5	2	7	13

Dallas and OKC took losses in this category this week. Phoenix still has played only two games at home against winning teams. If OKC and S.A. want to get rolling, holding the home court against good teams would be a place to start.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	6	1	7	14
Dallas	5	2	7	14
Denver	6	1	7	14
Houston	3	0	3	17
L.A.	9	0	9	12
N.O.	6	2	8	12
OKC	6	1	7	13
Phoenix	8	0	8	14
S.A.	10	0	10	12
Utah	6	2	8	13

Utah was the only team with a Cream Puff loss this week. Houston still has a lot of these stored up. Notice S.A. The Spurs have played 10 home games against losing teams, and won all of them. Take those out of their record and they would be 4-10! The spreadsheet doesn't like the softness of their schedule, and their inability to perform well against strong teams.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	10	4	14	27
Dallas	10	4	14	27
Denver	12	1	13	28
Houston	7	4	11	30
L.A.	15	2	17	24
N.O.	10	3	13	28
OKC	7	7	14	27
Phoenix	10	0	10	31
S.A.	11	4	15	26
Utah	11	4	15	26

Dallas, OKC, and Utah lost home games this week.. As last week, L.A. has the fewest remaining home games, Phoenix and Houston the most.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	7	8	15	26
Dallas	10	4	14	27
Denver	7	8	15	26
Houston	9	7	16	25
L.A.	7	2	9	32
N.O.	2	11	13	28
OKC	6	6	12	29
Phoenix	8	9	17	24
S.A.	3	6	9	32
Utah	5	7	12	29

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 54-57 in road games. After a 10-11 week, it stands at 64-68. We had a 1-1 week, right in line with what the group did as a whole, and are hanging close to .500, just as most of the others. Only Dallas and L.A. have particularly strong road records, only N.O. is really bad. L.A. and S.A. have the most road games remaining, other than that it is reasonably balanced.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	6	8	14	25
Dallas	9	4	13	26
Denver	8	2	10	30
Houston	8	9	17	24
L.A.	8	4	12	29
N.O.	4	9	13	30
OKC	4	11	15	26
Phoenix	5	7	12	26
S.A.	2	9	11	29
Utah	6	8	14	27

N.O., Denver, L.A., and S.A. have the most remaining games against winning teams. This is not particularly good news for the Hornets and Spurs, seeing as they have very poor records against winning teams this year. OKC does, too, but at least they have fewer of them left. We don't have huge imbalances in our favor like we did last year at this time, but our schedule isn't as hard as some of the teams that we have to beat out to grab a playoff spot.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	11	4	15	28
Dallas	11	4	15	28
Denver	11	7	18	24
Houston	8	2	10	31
L.A.	14	0	14	27
N.O.	8	5	13	26
OKC	9	2	11	30
Phoenix	13	2	15	29
S.A.	12	1	13	29
Utah	10	3	13	28

Denver has the fewest remaining easy games, Houston and OKC the most remaining. L.A. still hasn't lost to a losing team. Bizarrely, Denver is 8-2 against winning teams but only 11-7 against losing teams -- so maybe it is to their advantage that most of their remaining games are against tougher competition.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	12	5	4	2	1
Dallas	12	4	3	4	1
Denver	15	5	4	1	5
Houston	15	5	5	1	4
L.A.	14	4	9	0	1
N.O.	11	2	7	2	0
OKC	13	6	3	3	1
Phoenix	14	2	6	3	3
S.A.	13	6	6	0	1
Utah	13	4	3	4	2

Notice the Hornets have not only fewer BtoBs than anyone, but fewer Cat 4 BtoBs. Though S.A. and OKC do not have as many remaining as some other teams, they have more Cat 4s. We'll get another of our Cat 4 BtoBs out of the way this week. Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	2	0
Dallas	3	0	0	3	0
Denver	5	1	2	0	2
Houston	6	2	1	1	2
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	3	0	2	1	0
OKC	5	1	1	2	1
Phoenix	9	2	2	2	3
S.A.	6	2	3	0	1
Utah	6	2	1	3	0

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	8	5	2	0	1
Dallas	9	4	3	1	1
Denver	10	4	2	1	3
Houston	9	3	4	0	2
L.A.	13	4	9	0	0
N.O.	8	2	5	1	0
OKC	8	5	2	1	0
Phoenix	5	0	4	1	0
S.A.	7	4	3	0	0
Utah	7	2	2	1	2

When you net these out, you can see that in terms of "sole" BtoBs, when a team is on a BtoB and their opponent isn't, the remaining schedule is very kind to Phoenix and not so kind to L.A. We don't have that many remaining, but the ones we have are tough.

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	5	0	0	2	3
Dallas	10	0	1	5	4
Denver	11	1	0	8	2
Houston	8	0	0	1	7
L.A.	4	2	0	1	1
N.O.	11	2	1	4	4
OKC	6	0	2	3	1
Phoenix	8	0	0	5	3
S.A.	7	0	0	5	2
Utah	10	1	2	2	5

Still an advantage for Denver -- most of their difficult home opponents will be tired. But they cashed in two of those BtoBs with Cat2 wins this week, and still only went 2-2. Only L.A. gets less help from tired opponents than we do the rest of the way.

The Projections

Here is the vital stuff: the jscot Stupid Sched Projections.

Standard Disclaimer: How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained above or in previous posts. Do not blame me. This is only the numbers. It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do. Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.

L.A. 66.5 wins.
Phoenix. 62.4 wins.
Dallas. 58.5 wins.
Denver. 57.5 wins.
Houston. 54.4 wins.
Utah. 49.0 wins.
Portland. 48.6 wins.
OKC. 43.4 wins.
S.A. 42.6 wins.
N.O. 39.4 wins.

The spreadsheet likes L.A.'s unbeaten record in Cat 1 and Cat 3, and the Suns' unbeaten record in Cat 2 and Cat 1. It likes the Mavs' 4-2 record in Cat 4, the only team with a winning record in that category, Denver's unbeaten record in Cat 2, and Houston's unbeaten record in Cat 1. It doesn't care that much about the Spurs' perfect record in Cat 1 because they've been abysmal in Cat 2 and 4. It hates the Hornets' 0-8 record in Cat 4, but gives some credit for their 4-1 record in Cat 2 (their only home loss against a winning team was to Portland).

The Coming Week

Portland. Well, well. Last week in this spot, I said, "Crisis time." We're now in "Bonus Time", as we got the two home wins and one road win we needed to get before Christmas. Even one win this week would make for a decent week, with BtoB Cat 4s at Dallas and S.A., then home on Christmas Day to host Denver -- and we owe those guys one. Two wins this week would be phenomenal -- and I wouldn't rule that out, since Dirk is not healthy and S.A. can't beat good teams. The spreadsheet only projects about 1.1 wins for us this week, so getting even one would be decent.
Dallas. Jawbreaker (do they really want to play more of those?) Cat 2 at home vs. Portland, then a Cream Puff at home vs. Memphis, before out on the road for a Cat 4 BtoB at Denver.
Denver. Open with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home vs. Atlanta (Hawks on a BtoB), then out for a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Portland. Then, home for another Cat 2 Jawbreaker (Dallas, on a BtoB). That will be four straight Cat 2s where the opponent was on a BtoB for the Nugs -- and their blogger actually complains about their schedule!
Houston. Two more BtoBs, with two days rest in between. Open with a Cream Puff against the Clips at home (Clips on a BtoB), then on the Rocky Road at Orlando (BtoB), then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at NJ, and finally another Cat 4 BtoB at Cleveland.
L.A. Back home for two Cat 2s, OKC and Cleveland, then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Sacramento (BtoB).
N.O. The Hornets have a chance to finally climb back to .500, with two games, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home vs. G.S., then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Chicago. They'd best get these, it is about to get tougher next week.
The "Blunder". Likely to see the wrong side of .500 after a disappointing week this week. Open with back to back Cat 4 Rocky Roads against L.A. and Phoenix, then a Cream Puff against Charlotte. A bad week won't mean they are done, they have some easier games ahead.
Phoenix. They open with two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home (OKC, Cleveland), with both rivals on the second of a back to back. Then, they have their own BtoB, starting at home with a Cream Puff against the Clips and then going to G.S. for a dangerous BtoB Cat 3 Banana Peel.
S.A. An opportunity to make a move. A Cat 1 at home vs. the Clips, then a Cat 2 Jawbreaker hosting Portland (Blazers on a BtoB). Then, out on the road with back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Bucks and the Knicks. They are 12-1 against losing teams, and get three of them this week -- and the fourth game is Portland on the fourth in five nights. They will be disappointed with anything less than four wins.
Utah. The Jazz will look at their schedule, and say, "At least we don't have to play Minnesota this week!" Two Cat 4s, at Orlando and Miami, then a Cat 1 at home against Philly.

Clearly, the arrival of Tolliver has jumpstarted the team, and we're rolling again. Despite the clunker at Orlando, which you know would be a tough one to get in any circumstances, we're looking like a playoff team again. Some of those early losses, and of course the injuries, have reduced our margin for error considerably, but we're not done yet, Rudy should be back in a few weeks, and perhaps Nic a few weeks later.

Go, Blazers!

"The Blunder" and the Sched Ahead for 12/14/09, Week Eight

jscot — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 20:16:50 -0000

Gather round, children, and I'll tell you a story. I need to warn you, though, it's a sad story, one in which the bad guys get away with some very bad things.

Long ago, in a land far away, there was a basketball team. Their fans loved them, and neighboring fans hated them, which is as it should be. They won some games, they lost some games. They even won a championship once.

One day, there was a very rich and evil man, who had some very rich and evil friends, and they decided to kidnap this team, and take it away to their home. But as rich and evil people do, they didn't use guns to steal the team, they used lawyers and lots of money and lied about "good faith efforts" and all that stuff. If you don't understand how that works, it's ok. I hope you'll never be rich and evil (we'd settle for rich and good, though, wouldn't we?), so you won't need to know about that stuff.

Anyway, it worked. They stole the team, but in their hurry to get it away from town, they forgot to take the team name with them.

This created a problem for these rich and evil men, though. The team used to be called the Supersonics, which is a kind of jet airplane which goes really, really fast. These men thought it was good that they used to be called the Supersonics, because they made the team go off to their own city really fast. But now, what would they call their new team, the one they had stolen?

They racked their brains for a solution, and one day, they were sitting around the table, and one of them said, "Hey, if a Supersonic is flying away from Seattle really fast on its way to Oklahoma, doesn't it make a loud noise in the sky?" The others said, "That's it! We'll call our team that loud noise in the sky!"

Now, children, you should know that the loud noise in the sky is called a sonic boom. But the rich and evil men apparently didn't know that there was more than one kind of loud noise in the sky -- and they called their team the "Blunder".

This Sched Ahead edition, for the first time, includes a team from OKC, hereafter known as the "Blunder", as a potential playoff contender.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Milwaukee is back up to .500, so their games are recategorized.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-3), splitting two Cat 3 Banana Peels (W at IND, L at the Knicks who were on a BtoB) and lost to Cat 4 Rocky Roads, at CLE and MIL (BtoB). Not a good week.

Dallas (3-0) got back on track, with a Cat 2 home win (Phoenix), a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Miami, and a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Charlotte (both teams BtoB).

Denver (2-2) was not stellar, winning only one (@Philly) of three Banana Peels, losing at Charlotte (BtoB) and Detroit (Pistons were BtoB), then somewhat rescuing the week by closing it out with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker home win against Phoenix (who was on a BtoB). Not a very good week, but not horrible.

Houston (2-1) was solid, winning a tough Cat 2 at home against Cleveland (Cavs on a BtoB), then getting a Banana Peel Split on the road with a win at Philly and a loss at Toronto.

L.A. (2-1) got two more home wins (Cat 2 Utah, Cat 1 Cream Puff Minnesota) before finally hitting the road, and immediately taking a loss at Utah in a back to back. They are 15-2 at home and 3-2 on the road. L@ker fans like to think they are as good on the road as at home. If so, they'll win their next 12 road games. Don't hold your breath -- though the competition in the next 4 isn't brutal.

N.O. (2-1) showed they know how to blow a good week. They started well, winning a Cream Puff at home against the Kings, then a Banana Peel at Minnesota (both teams BtoB), before ruining it with a Cream Puff home loss to NY. The Knicks are playing very well recently, it isn't just Portland and N.O. that have fallen to them in the last couple of weeks, but you don't want to lose at home to a team like that.

The Blunder (2-1) had a decent week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Warriors and a dangerous Cat 3 Banana Peel at Memphis, then dropping a Cat 2 Jawbreaker against the Cavs.

Phoenix (1-2) had their second straight losing week, and again, it is hard to blame them. They had a Jawbreaker (Cat 2) sandwich, with a nice home win against Orlando surrounded by two tough Cat 4 road losses to the D Team (Dallas and Denver). The Denver loss was on a back to back. With a week like that, you shrug, and say, "What did you expect?"

S.A. (3-1) had a pretty good week, opening with a Rocky Road loss at Utah, but closing with three wins, two Cat 1 Cream Puffs (Sacramento and Charlotte) and a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clippers.

Utah (3-1) had a really good week, losing one Cat 4 Rocky Road at LA, but winning three very tough Cat 2s at home -- San Antonio, Orlando (BtoB), and the L@kers (who were on a BtoB). Very nice week. People who wrote them off after the first three weeks obviously didn't know what they were talking about. They aren't going to be dominant, but they are a very solid team.

New Orleans (at home) and Houston each took a loss to losing teams, Portland and Denver each took two.

Helped themselves: Dallas, S.A., Utah.

Did OK: Houston, L.A., Blunder, Phoenix.

Hurt themselves: Portland, Denver, N.O.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	5	6	14
Dallas	4	2	6	14
Denver	2	3	5	16
Houston	3	4	7	14
L.A.	2	2	4	18
N.O.	0	7	7	16
OKC	3	3	6	15
Phoenix	3	6	9	11
S.A.	1	4	5	17
Utah	1	5	6	16

Dallas (at Miami) got the only Cat 4 win of the week. Notice that Phoenix only has 11 of these toughest games left, LA has 18. In less than two weeks, we'll have cleared four of these, and hopefully have picked up at least one win of the four. San Antonio does need to get their act together, they have a lot of hard games left.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	2	7	14
Dallas	5	2	7	14
Denver	5	3	8	12
Houston	5	2	7	13
L.A.	1	0	1	18
N.O.	2	2	4	14
OKC	3	1	4	16
Phoenix	5	2	7	14
S.A.	1	1	2	17
Utah	2	1	3	16

This category is also fairly balanced in remaining games, with again L.A. and S.A. having the most remaining. Those two teams have a lot of road time left.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	3	3	6	15
Dallas	4	1	5	16
Denver	4	0	4	17
Houston	3	4	7	15
L.A.	6	2	8	13
N.O.	4	1	5	17
OKC	2	5	7	15
Phoenix	1	0	1	19
S.A.	2	4	6	14
Utah	5	2	7	14

Phoenix still has a lot of tough home games left. Here's where the "Blunder" don't look so hot, they haven't held home court well against good teams. Phoenix hasn't even had to try home games against good teams yet. Utah won all three of their games in this category this week.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	1	6	14
Dallas	4	2	6	14
Denver	6	1	7	13
Houston	2	0	2	17
L.A.	9	0	9	11
N.O.	4	2	6	13
OKC	4	1	5	14
Phoenix	7	0	7	14
S.A.	8	0	8	13
Utah	6	1	7	13

The Hornets were the only team with a Cream Puff loss this week. Note that L.A. has played 41% (!!!) of their games as home games against losing teams. Houston is the other outlier -- they've got a lot of easy games left.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	8	4	12	29
Dallas	8	3	11	30
Denver	10	1	11	30
Houston	5	4	9	32
L.A.	15	2	17	24
N.O.	8	3	11	30
OKC	6	6	12	29
Phoenix	8	0	8	33
S.A.	10	4	14	27
Utah	11	3	14	27

N.O. and OKC were the only teams to lose a home game this week.. Little change on the schedule imbalances this week, L.A. has played the most home games and Phoenix and Houston the fewest.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	6	7	13	28
Dallas	9	4	13	28
Denver	7	6	13	28
Houston	8	6	14	27
L.A.	3	2	5	36
N.O.	2	9	11	30
OKC	6	4	10	31
Phoenix	8	8	16	25
S.A.	2	5	7	34
Utah	3	6	9	32

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 47-46 in road games. That record is now 54-57 -- a poor 7-11 for the week. L.A. is finally on the road, having just lost the first of a five game trip. Phoenix is almost entirely at home for the next month.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	8	12	29
Dallas	8	3	11	30
Denver	6	3	9	33
Houston	6	8	14	29
L.A.	8	4	12	31
N.O.	4	8	12	33
OKC	5	8	13	30
Phoenix	4	6	10	30
S.A.	3	8	11	31
Utah	6	7	13	30

This is fairly balanced as far as games ahead against winning teams, very little difference between N.O./Denver at one end of the spectrum and Portland/Houston at the other end. The differences come in home/road breakdowns of those games.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	10	3	13	28
Dallas	9	4	13	28
Denver	11	4	15	25
Houston	7	2	9	30
L.A.	10	0	10	29
N.O.	6	4	10	27
OKC	7	2	9	30
Phoenix	12	2	14	28
S.A.	9	1	10	30
Utah	8	2	10	29

Notice that Dallas, Denver, and N.O. have lost four games against losing teams, L.A. none.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	13	6	4	2	1
Dallas	12	4	3	4	1
Denver	15	5	4	1	5
Houston	17	7	4	2	4
L.A.	16	5	10	0	1
N.O.	11	3	6	2	0
OKC	15	8	3	3	1
Phoenix	14	3	5	3	3
S.A.	14	6	7	0	1
Utah	14	4	4	4	2

This factor is to the advantage of N.O., and disadvantage of Houston and L.A. Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	2	0
Dallas	3	0	0	3	0
Denver	5	1	2	0	2
Houston	7	3	0	2	2
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	3	0	2	1	0
OKC	6	2	1	2	1
Phoenix	9	3	1	2	3
S.A.	6	2	3	0	1
Utah	6	2	1	3	0

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	9	6	2	0	1
Dallas	9	4	3	1	1
Denver	10	4	2	1	3
Houston	10	4	4	0	2
L.A.	15	5	10	0	0
N.O.	8	3	4	1	0
OKC	9	6	2	1	0
Phoenix	5	0	4	1	0
S.A.	8	4	4	0	0
Utah	8	2	3	1	2

Phoenix now has only five games remaining where they are on a back to back and the other team isn't -- and none are Cat 4s. L.A. has 15, but only five are against winning teams.

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	5	0	0	2	3
Dallas	10	0	1	5	4
Denver	13	1	0	10	2
Houston	8	0	0	2	6
L.A.	5	2	1	1	1
N.O.	12	2	1	4	5
OKC	6	0	2	3	1
Phoenix	9	0	0	6	3
S.A.	8	0	0	5	3
Utah	11	1	3	3	4

Still a big advantage for Denver here -- most of their difficult home opponents will be tired. We'll not be getting any help on our road games the rest of the way.

The Coming Week

Portland. Crisis time. A winnable Cat 1 Cream Puff against Sacramento, a much tougher Cat 2 against Phoenix, then on the road for a brutal 4 in 5 nights, all Rocky Road Cat 4s, starting this weekend at Orlando and Miami. Two wins this week and we will come home for a four game stand with a winning record and the worst stretch of the schedule behind us. Less than two wins and KP may be looking to make a move (he might be anyway, of course).
Dallas. Four winnable games, perhaps none of them easy. They start with a Cat 1 against the Hornets (who keep edging towards .500), then a Cat 4 Rocky Road at OKC, followed by two Cat 2s at home against Houston and Cleveland.
Denver. They start with two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home (OKC and Houston). These two games wrap up a strange stretch where the Nuggets face 4 straight opponents who are on the second of a back to back. Then, they go out on the road with two Cat 3 Banana Peels at New Orleans and Memphis.
Houston. Four in five nights, though two of the four are at home. They start with a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home vs. Detroit, then a Rocky Road BtoB at Denver, then another Cat 4 at Dallas, and finally a Cat 2 at home to OKC (both teams on a BtoB).
L.A. Four in six nights. Open at Chicago, then a back to back at Milwaukee, then two nights off before playing at N.J. (Nets will be on a BtoB), and finally a back to back at Detroit. The Bucks are a Cat 4, the others are all Cat 3.
N.O. After dropping a home game to the Knicks that would have put them at .500, the Hornets need to get some wins, and they have one in each category this week. They start with the toughest first, a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, then follow with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Detroit (Pistons will be on a BtoB). Next is a testing Cat 2 against Denver, and they close the week with a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Toronto. Two wins needed, minimum.
The "Blunder". Not an easy week for them. They start and end with Cat 4 Rocky Road games, both on a BtoB, starting at Denver and ending at Houston (who will also be on a BtoB). In between, they are at home for a Cat 2 against Dallas and a Cat 1 against Detroit. Two wins would make a solid week.
Phoenix. The Suns are finally moving into the soft part of their schedule, but it doesn't get really easy quite yet. They host the Spurs for a Cat 2 Jawbreaker, then travel to Portland for a Cat 4 Rocky Road. They close at home with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against the Wizards, who will be on a BtoB.
S.A. They start with a tough Cat 4 at Phoenix, then go BtoB to Golden State (Cat 3 Banana Peel). Then it is home for a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Indiana, who will be on a BtoB.
Utah. The Jazz try to keep their momentum going, starting with a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Minnesota (looking for payback after losing at Minnesota recently). Then, they start a testing five game trip with a Banana Peel at N.J. (Nets will be on a BtoB), followed by two in two nights at Atlanta (Cat 4) and Charlotte (Cat 3).

Time for some home wins. Sacramento is no pushover this year, but you have to beat teams like that in Portland. Two wins this week and we keep ourselves in the hunt a little longer, as we look longingly for the Euro cavalry (Rudy and Nic) to ride over the hill to our rescue. Drop these games, and if KP hasn't been thinking about a move, he probably will be.

Coming next week, the jscot Silly Sched Projections (c).

The Natives are Getting Restless

jscot — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:56:47 -0000

Dear Blazer Braintrust,

It's me again. I haven't written to you in a few weeks, but I'm noticing a minor groundswell of opinion among Blazer fans, and thought perhaps it out to be mentioned. Perhaps you've noticed it.

As you gentlemen probably know, there are those who like to call me a Blazer homer. I prefer to view myself as a realist. Let me just lay out my credentials on that point.

I'll start at the top. Paul Allen is the best sports owner ever. That isn't homerism, that's realism, and I know it to be true. I'll go right down the list. KP is the best GM the world has ever seen. Nate is the best coach ever. The only reason Monty hasn't been hired away (he'd be the second best coach in the league) is because he knows it is futile to coach against Nate. Our specialist assistants are top notch, our medical staff is the best in the league, our announcers are better than anyone else's. This isn't homerism, this is all realism. I can prove I'm not a homer, because I think our mascot is pretty pathetic -- that should demonstrate my bona fides.

Michael Jordan was simply the precursor to Brandon Roy. I'm willing to concede that Tim Duncan in his prime might have been as good as LaMarcus is. Greg Oden embodies all the basketball virtues of Wilt, Russell, Kareem, and Hakeem. Steve Blake is like Steve Nash -- his only problem is he's a late bloomer. I could go on, but you get the picture. I fully expect us to win 8 out of the next 10 championships, and exceed 70 regular season wins at least twice. Realism, for sure. Since we're going to accomplish those things, I'm being realistic to expect them. I don't know why people don't recognize that.

Yet, gentlemen, even a Blazer realist like me is starting to wonder what in the world is going on with this team, and I'm hardly alone. Sure, I don't go to the games, the commute is beyond me, but some of my money has flowed into your coffers this year. If you sell a product to your customers and it isn't working the way it is supposed to, usually those customers will start to ask questions. If you want to keep selling it, you might want to think about providing some answers. I won't stop supporting the players, but I have limited time to watch games, and limited money to spend on entertainment, and this entertainment doesn't seem to be entertaining as well as it ought to be.

I do not care that we are losing games. Losing some games is expected when you lose so many key players to injury. I care about how we are playing the game.

So here are some of the questions that even the Blazer realists like me are asking.

1. Why Do our Players Move so Little Without the Ball?

One of the reasons I buy League Pass is so my kids can watch the best in the world play the game. I do not have to explain to the Blazer Braintrust why off the ball movement is so important. I don't even have to explain it to my kids any more. Our team is demonstrating how standing around on offense brings poor results. I thank the Blazers for the educational experience for my kids, but the lesson has been learned.

2. Why can Cleveland Run the Pick and Roll to get Multiple Easy Baskets but We Never Can?

The pick and roll is one of the most basic plays in basketball, but our execution of the pick and roll is lacking (I'm being charitable here). Do we need to hire a designated pick and roll coach?

3. Why do We Take so many Shots in the Last 3 Seconds of the Shot Clock?

Are we practicing our end-of-game heroics in the first quarter? Has anyone done research to compare shooting percentages in the last three seconds of the shot clock to shooting percentages in the first 21 seconds? Are we doing this by design because we think it is better, or because of poor execution of the offensive scheme, or because every team plays super-heroic defense against us beyond what they do against anyone else, or is it because our offensive scheme is flawed?

4. Why do We Never get any Easy Baskets?

You know the ones I'm talking about. The ones where guys run off of a screen and cut to the hoop, and get the ball for an easy layup. Or the kind where the man setting the pick rolls to the hoop, gets the ball, and scores. Or the kind where we go out on the break, fill the lanes, and dish to the open man for a layup. Even our points in the paint are on back to the basket stuff by LMA, most of the time, or offensive rebounds. We rarely get a fastbreak, and our offense virtually never generates layups or dunks. Every team in the league, almost certainly, gets more layups than we do. And they don't do it just on the fastbreak, they run an offense that results in easy layups, that creates off-the-ball pressure so that eventually there is a breakdown.

5. Has Andre Miller Aged Ten Year in the Last Six Months, or is it our System?

We were told when Andre came to Portland that he would bring the following:

Run the pick and roll with the bigs, getting them easy baskets at the hoop. How often has this happened?
Run the fastbreak, getting us easy baskets. How often has this happened?
Provide spacing (even if he doesn't shoot the 3) with a highly effective mid-range jumper. Hmm.
Prevent offensive stagnation by providing a complementary threat to Brandon Roy. Well....

So, is Andre just not effective anymore, or are we not using him well?

6. Why are We told that the Players will Determine Who Plays by how Well They Play?

I watch the games. I see all the little things that Steve Blake does that make a difference for this team. I am not so foolish as to think that the box score tells even a quarter of the story of a player's performance. Maybe there are things that I'm not seeing, too. But according to my eyes, all the statistics, and the read of thousands of knowledgeable basketball fans, by any standard of which I am aware, Steve Blake (this year) is the least productive of our four healthy guards, and is consistently getting more minutes at the guard position than any of the others (yes, he's getting more guard minutes than Brandon, by far -- in one game, he got more TOTAL minutes than Brandon).

I am a Blake fan, and believe that the Steve Blake of last year, even of the year before, could be the PG on a championship team, with all the firepower we will have when healthy and our key players hit their prime. But he is not the Steve Blake of last year.

Gentlemen, the boxscore doesn't tell the whole story, but sometimes it tells a story, too.

	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	AST	TO
Last 5 Games	10	35	4	20	1	2	22	11

In the last five games, Steve is only 20% on 3s and 40% on 2s, has only drawn one shooting foul, scored 25 points (5 per game) and has a decent but hardly great 2-1 Assist/TO ratio (4.4 assists per game). He has accomplished this in three hours, seven minutes, and thirty seconds of playing time (37.5 mpg, third on the team). That works out to approximately one point and one assist every 7.5 minutes. On the other hand, it does take him a full 17 minutes to accomplish a turnover, and he only misses a shot once every 7.5 minutes as well.

Over these five games, for every seven and a half minutes on the court, Steve has racked up 1 point, 0.8 assists, 1 missed shot, and 0.4 turnovers. Extrapolated across a full 240 team minutes in a regulation game, if we allocated all of our playing time to players who produce at this level, this would give us 32 points per game -- but we would have 25 assists. That's right, if we played an entire team of PGs producing at Steve's level, we'd manage to rack up an average number of assists for the game.

Despite what some Internet "experts" think, Steve is a pretty decent defender, but he certainly isn't the lockdown guy that you would play even if his offensive production lags.

Of course, I'm a Blazer "realist", so I know that Steve is just in a slump. After all, he shares the same name as that former MVP in Phoenix, and Nash has slumps, too, sometimes. So I looked at his stats for the prior five games.

	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	AST	TO
Prior 5 Games	10	23	6	15	0	5	17	5

Now, this was marginally better, though missing five free throws in a row wouldn't even impress Shaq. Shaq couldn't miss against us -- yes, even O'Neal has been shooting FTs better than Blake recently.

Better assist/turnover ratio, though not that many assists (3.4 pg). Good 3 point shooting (though nothing to torch the league). Those stats are the stats of a decent role player, a guy you like coming off your bench to give you 15-20 mpg. If the guys ahead of him get injured, he might step it up, play 30 mpg, and bump up his stats. But even those stats don't look like a 40 mpg player, do they? Well, unless we'd just been awesome when he was in. But we weren't.

	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	AST	TO
Last 10 Games	20	58	10	35	1	7	39	16

Those don't look like a 40 mpg player, either. Do they? Not to me. And Steady Steve is 1-7 on FTs in the last 10 games? Something is wrong with this picture, really wrong.

7. Why am I Focusing on Steve Blake?

Well, gentlemen, it's pretty simple. I don't care about the stat lines of various players, if what we are doing is working. I'm not talking about wins and losses -- the injuries are going to cause losses. I'm talking about items 1-4 above. What we are doing is not working. It is extremely hard for me to accept the idea that having Steve Blake helps our offense to run more effectively, because it isn't being run well at all.

The only reason we are scoring is because we've got one of the premier scorers in the league, because we have a big man who hits a very high percentage on contested turn around jumpers, and because we've had some nice cameo appearances from other guys making unexpected shots. But our offense is not being run well, as evidenced by the points above.

Now, I know full well that I don't know as much about basketball as you, my friends in the Blazer Braintrust. I know that there may be things that we are missing. Perhaps you might consider just explaining those things to your paying clientele. Sure, there are some rabid folks who wouldn't want to listen. But most of us are always willing to learn new things, and none of this makes any sense at all to us.

I don't want to dump Blake. I don't want to throw him under the bus. He's a good solid role player. But right now, he's playing abominably, and his minutes have gone UP? Does there ever come a time when he plays so badly that he has to sit down and let someone who is playing better give it the old college try? If so, how much more exactly is it going to take? Just how bad does he have to get? The "give him a chance to play through it" approach appears to have completely jumped the shark.

If the offense runs like a juggernaut when Blake is in, even if he isn't producing numbers, I'll shut up. If he completely shuts down the opponent's best scorer, I can live without offensive production. But when the offense is stagnant, there are never any easy buckets, we're constantly on the verge of a shot clock violation, AND he isn't producing, the natives start to get restless. When those same natives see other players come in and produce, when the offense is less stagnant with those other players, when the defense is at worst only a marginal dropoff, the fever pitch in the jungle starts to rise.

That fever pitch has been going up, and up, and up. Even the ~~homers~~ realists are becoming infected.

Yours sincerely,

A Blazer Realist

Classy Lakers Fans

jscot — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:07:47 -0000

[Ed. Note: Lakers fans and Blazers fans do not get along. Of course, for Lakers fans, being hated by fans of other teams is nothing new. It's also understandable that fans of other teams get burned out by the more classless of Lakers fans. I don't buy the idea that there is a higher percentage of classless morons in our ranks than in the ranks of any other fanbase — there's more of them overall, just because there's more of US overall. But I'd argue that the percentage of classless fans to classy fans is no different in the Lakers' fanbase than anywhere else.

Case in point: Here, in the SB Nation blog network, Blazers Edge has the most classless, trollish fans out in the SBN NBA community. We get bombarded with them, from time to time, and we're not the only ones. But that's simply because there are more "BEdgers" than anyone else. More people, more total morons — that doesn't mean there's a higher percentage.

In any case, we don't get along with very many "BEdgers," and they DEFINITELY don't like us. Which makes what jscot has to say here truly remarkable. Would that we should have more "Can't we all just get along?" moments, like these. I've gone on for too much already — I'll let jscot take it from here.]

As a Trailblazer fan since 1970, one who liked West but hated Wilt, Kareem, Magic, and everyone who came after, I never thought I'd join a Lakers' blog to make a comment. Well, I might have, but it would be a comment that would get me banned for life.

Do you sense a "But..." coming? Click the jump...

Why do we hate the Lakers? You know, every time I type that it comes out L@kers. I have to keep going back and changing it because you don't allow that. Doing it the real way (with the @ sign) has become engrained -- I suppose it was because my parent taught me not to swear, and even typing "Lakers" feels dirty to a black-and-red-bleeding Blazer fan. Who knew there'd be a site that actually required swearing?

Anyway, right here on a Lakers' fan forum, I'm going to tell you that often Blazer fans hate the Lakers as much for their fans as their team, sometimes even more. You probably know the fans to which I'm referring, the ones who know nothing about basketball, jump on a bandwagon, and then rant and rave and make themselves intolerable. I know that we have Blazer fans like that as well, they infest the Internet everywhere, but yours seem to be louder, and crasser, than anyone else's, even Boston's. I don't know why that is. Maybe it is just me that thinks that, because I'm a Blazer fan.

So why am I here? Primarily to say that Blazersedge has had an infestation of Lakers' fans in the last 48 hours or so. Lakers' fans coming to offer condolences, to wish Greg Oden well, to say they know what it feels like, etc., etc.

Class.

It's been the Rockets and the Lakers fans leading the way, though fans of other teams have come along, too.

I still hate the Lakers. Always will. Sorry, that's just the way it is. I am on record as saying that the only thing better than having the Lakers miss the playoffs is sweeping them 4-0 in the WCF. Even if I wanted to change my opinion, I couldn't.

But you guys have a lot of classy fans. People are people everywhere, and in every one of us there is both good and bad, but there's been a lot of good coming out the last couple of days. Basketball is a game, and a fun one, but it's just a game. We're all human beings, and you have been well represented by some fine human beings.

That kind of thing needs to be recognized, acknowledged, and appreciated. So thanks to you all from one Blazer fan, for being classy, for keeping wins and losses in perspective, for functioning on the level of shared humanity instead of the superficial level of basketball rivalries. Your comments don't help our team in the least, but it's at times like this that basketball intersects with human reality in the things that matter, and you've been well represented by those who recognized and embraced that intersection.

Take care, all.

p.s. Your "all home all the time" schedule is about to catch up to you. (I just had to throw a little trash talk in, sorry.)

The Sched Ahead -- 12/07/09 Week Seven -- We'll Fight On

jscot — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:39:16 -0000

No giving up, we go on. We may not be able to get a high seed after all, but this team can still grab a playoff spot, and scare some teams. We saw what happens when players like Miller and Roy get aggressive and take it to the opponent, when role players like Bayless come in and attack the hoop, when stand-up guys like Przybilla step into the gap and do a job. So press on, and see what happens.

So here's our weekly look at the schedule imbalances among the Western contenders.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Sacramento is back into the "losing team" category, being joined there by Milwaukee for the first time this season. As explained in the past, this means all of their games, past and future, are now recategorized.

As I said last week in the comments, if OKC finishes out this coming week over .500, I'll add them into this analysis. Also don't sleep on the Clips, who since their brutal opening 4 game stretch are over .500 -- and they get Blake Griffin back eventually. My spreadsheet may get crowded soon.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-1), splitting two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games against non-elite teams. We have to do better than .500 in that type of game, with Greg Oden or without him.

Dallas (2-2) had a weak week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Philly and a Cat 3 at the Nets, but then slipping on a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Memphis and dropping a Cat 2 at home to Atlanta (both teams were on a back to back).

Denver (3-0) bounced back from that home loss to Minnesota with three straight, a Cat 1 at home to the Warriors, a Cat 2 at home to Miami, and then a nice Rocky Road Cat 4 at San Antonio.

Houston (2-1) did what they needed, getting the two they should have, back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Clippers and G.S., then competing hard in a Cat 4 at Portland which barely got away from them. It's always good to get those Cat 3 wins in the bag.

L.A. (3-0) continues rolling at home with three good solid wins, a Cat 1 vs. the Hornets and two Cat 2s vs. Miami and Phoenix. I would be more impressed if both the Cat 2s had not been against opponents on a back to back, especially Miami coming off of a tough one at Denver.

N.O. (1-1) did as expected, losing a Cat 4 Rocky Road game at the L@kers and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Minnesota. Everyone beats Minnesota, so that means nothing, right? Well, ask Denver and Utah, I guess. Chris Paul is back.

Phoenix (1-3) had a rough week. Is their fast start about to come crashing down? Well, maybe, but it was not an easy schedule for them, losing two Cat 4s at L.A. and Cleveland (both of which were on the second of a BtoB), and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Sacramento. The only real blow there was losing a disappointing Cat 3 Banana Peel at NY. A bad week, but two of the three losses were pretty much expected.

S.A. (0-2) followed their first good week of the year with a bad one, losing two tough Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home to Boston and Denver.

Utah (2-1) closed out their homestand with two more Cat 1 Cream Puff wins, Memphis and Indiana, then turned their week into a bad one with a loss at Minnesota. Oh, but the Jazz were on a back to back, you say, and so were tired, having to travel from Utah? The Timberwolves were also on a back to back, played a tougher opponent the night before, had to travel from New Orleans, and weren't coming off a six game homestand. Utah gets no sympathy from me.

Last week, Portland, Dallas, and Denver lost to bottom feeders. This week, Dallas, Phoenix, and Houston did so.

Helped themselves: Denver, Houston, L.A..

Meh: N.O.

Hurt themselves: Portland, Dallas, Phoenix, S.A., Utah.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	3	4	15
Dallas	2	2	4	15
Denver	2	2	4	16
Houston	3	4	7	13
L.A.	2	1	3	18
N.O.	0	7	7	15
Phoenix	3	4	7	12
S.A.	1	3	4	17
Utah	1	4	5	16

Denver got a nice win at San Antonio, the only Cat 4 win among Western rivals this week. Remaining games in this category are lower for all teams due to the recategorization of the Bucks and Kings. Phoenix and Houston have the fewest difficult games remaining, L.A. the most.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	1	5	17
Dallas	6	2	8	14
Denver	4	2	6	15
Houston	4	1	5	16
L.A.	1	0	1	19
N.O.	1	2	3	16
Phoenix	5	2	7	15
S.A.	0	1	1	19
Utah	2	1	3	17

Gut check time, we have three games in this category this week (unless the Milwaukee game turns into a Cat 4 by the time we get there). We have a decent record at least in part because we've been able to take care of business against losing teams on the road. These games give us a chance to send a message to everyone that is writing us off. Notice that every team but L.A. has lost at least one game to a losing team on the road -- and L.A. has only played one.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	3	3	6	14
Dallas	3	1	4	16
Denver	3	0	3	17
Houston	2	4	6	15
L.A.	5	2	7	13
N.O.	3	1	4	17
Phoenix	0	0	0	19
S.A.	1	4	5	14
Utah	2	2	4	16

Phoenix still has a lot of tough home games left. We have a nice chunk of our more difficult home games out of the way. As disappointing as it is to only have won half of our home games against winning teams, Utah has done no better, and Houston and S.A. have done even worse. We're not dead yet.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	1	6	15
Dallas	3	2	5	16
Denver	6	1	7	14
Houston	2	0	2	18
L.A.	8	0	8	13
N.O.	4	1	5	15
Phoenix	7	0	7	15
S.A.	7	0	7	15
Utah	6	1	7	14

No Cream Puff losses among the rivals this week, the losses to bad teams were all on the road.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	8	4	12	29
Dallas	6	3	9	32
Denver	9	1	10	31
Houston	4	4	8	33
L.A.	13	2	15	26
N.O.	7	2	9	32
Phoenix	7	0	7	34
S.A.	8	4	12	29
Utah	8	3	11	30

Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio (twice) dropped home games this week. Houston and Phoenix haven't been home much, L.A. has played a lot of home games (more than 3/4ths of their games so far). The piper has to be paid, though.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	4	9	32
Dallas	8	4	12	29
Denver	6	4	10	31
Houston	7	5	12	29
L.A.	3	1	4	37
N.O.	1	9	10	31
Phoenix	8	6	14	27
S.A.	1	4	5	36
Utah	3	5	8	33

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 38-35 in road games. That record is now 42-42 -- a poor 4-7 for the week (after going 8-3 the week before). L.A. and S.A. have hardly seen the road. By the end of this week, we'll have played almost as many road games as anyone. Phoenix has played more than anyone on the road, and has two more road games this week. Then, they'll be at home almost exclusively until the middle of January.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	6	10	29
Dallas	5	3	8	31
Denver	5	2	7	33
Houston	5	8	13	28
L.A.	7	3	10	31
N.O.	3	8	11	32
Phoenix	3	4	7	31
S.A.	2	7	9	31
Utah	3	6	9	32

Houston has played the toughest schedule so far. Some people think we've had a really easy schedule, but we've played more games against teams with winning records than five of our rivals have. Yet, due to the uneven schedule, our road ahead isn't much tougher than Houston's, as far as the level of remaining competition.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	9	2	11	32
Dallas	9	4	13	30
Denver	10	3	13	29
Houston	6	1	7	34
L.A.	9	0	9	32
N.O.	5	3	8	31
Phoenix	12	2	14	30
S.A.	7	1	8	34
Utah	8	2	10	31

Notice that Dallas has already lost four games against losing teams, Denver and N.O. three each. Last year, we only lost six of these games all year.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	14	6	5	2	1
Dallas	13	4	3	4	2
Denver	16	5	5	1	5
Houston	17	6	5	2	4
L.A.	17	5	11	0	1
N.O.	12	2	8	2	0
Phoenix	15	3	6	3	3
S.A.	14	6	7	0	1
Utah	15	4	4	5	2

Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	2	0
Dallas	4	0	0	3	1
Denver	5	1	2	0	2
Houston	7	2	1	2	2
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	4	0	3	1	0
Phoenix	9	2	2	2	3
S.A.	6	2	3	0	1
Utah	6	2	1	3	0

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	10	6	3	0	1
Dallas	9	4	3	1	1
Denver	11	4	3	1	3
Houston	10	4	4	0	2
L.A.	16	5	11	0	0
N.O.	8	2	5	1	0
Phoenix	6	1	4	1	0
S.A.	8	4	4	0	0
Utah	9	2	3	2	2

Phoenix only has six games remaining where they are on a back to back and the other team isn't. Of those six, four are against losing teams. All told, look for Phoenix, with more home games and fewer net back to backs, to be improving their position.

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	6	0	1	2	3
Dallas	10	0	1	5	4
Denver	15	1	1	11	2
Houston	9	0	0	2	7
L.A.	5	2	1	1	1
N.O.	12	2	1	4	5
Phoenix	10	0	0	6	4
S.A.	9	0	0	5	4
Utah	12	1	3	3	5

Still a big advantage for Denver here.

The Coming Week

Portland. Out on the road, with three Banana Peels (NY, Indiana, Milwaukee) and a Rocky Road Cat 4 in Cleveland. NY is on a back to back tonight, which helps our chances. The Cavs/Bucks games are a back to back for us. Two wins would be a decent week, three would be superb.
Dallas. Three games. A Cat 2 Jawbreaker hosting Phoenix, then a Cat 4 at Miami, followed by a Cat 1 at home against Charlotte (both teams on a BtoB). The Mavs have had two weeks in a row where they lost to a losing team.
Denver. Three Cat 3 Banana Peels on the road, at Philly, Charlotte (BtoB), and Detroit (Pistons will be on a BtoB). They close with a tough Cat 2 hosting Phoenix, who will be on a back to back.
Houston. After four days off, they host Cleveland on Wednesday (who will be on a BtoB), then on the road again for the Rockets, with two Banana Peels at Philadelphia and Toronto.
L.A. Two more home games, a Cat 2 against Houston and then a Cream Puff against Minnesota, and then finally, finally, finally they go on the road. When they hit the road for Utah (Cat 4, BtoB) after that Minnesota game, they will have played 17 at home and only 4 on the road. Saturday night will be their first game outside of California since November 13, their second since November 4th (over a month).
N.O. An opportunity for the Hornets, with CP3 back. They start with a Cat 1 Cream Puff hosting Sacramento, go to Minnesota for a Cat 3 (both teams on a BtoB, just like Utah was in Minnesota this week), then go back home for another Cat 1 against NY. Three wins, and their season looks a lot better than it did. Drop one and you have to say it is a wasted opportunity. Drop two and you're looking at a team in crisis.
Phoenix. I said above that Phoenix should have an easier schedule in the future. You are going to have to trust me on that, because if you look at this week, it is pretty brutal. They start with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, then a Cat 2 at home against Orlando (was it Channing who was going to defend Dwight? I knew there was a problem with this picture), and then on a back to back go to Denver (Cat 4). There would be no shame in taking losses in 2 of the 3. In fact, there would be no shame in losing all 3. Disappointment, yes, shame no.
S.A. These guys are really struggling, but should be able to make some progress this week. Tough start to the week with a Cat 4 at Utah (but the Jazz are vulnerable), then two home Cream Puffs (the Kings who will be on a BtoB and Charlotte), and closing with a Banana Peel Cat 3 at the Clippers. My spreadsheet doesn't like their performance at all this year. Three wins this week would help quite a bit.
Utah. Tough week ahead for the Jazz, even though three of the four are at home -- all three are tough Cat 2 Jawbreakers. They host the Spurs, then have a tough Cat 4 at LA, then they get the difficult LA/Utah back to back, arriving late from LA and having a tough opponent waiting for them (Orlando). Finally, the close the week by hosting LA, who will be on that same LA/Utah BtoB.

Tonight sets up the road trip. Win tonight, and we really only need one more win out of the next three to be a decent trip, and we have a decent chance to do better and have a really, really good trip. Lose this one, and we'll have three games remaining on the trip, none of which is likely to be easy. A win puts us two over .500 on the road for the season.

Feeling Down about Greg? How about Tickets for Greg?

One of the best ways to pick yourself up is to quit think about yourself, and do something for someone else. And Greg is the kind of guy that would be really pleased if you bought some tickets for kids in his honor and sent him a note saying so. Dave needs to give us an update, but apparently all tickets aren't sold yet, or he'd have told us. Here is Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target. Here is Dave's latest post saying over 300 of the 400 have been sold.

Dave's description:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

Dear Blazers

jscot — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:31:01 -0000

Just a quick note to say that we, your fans, are right behind you.

Everything hurts right now, but Blazer fans have never been fair weather fans. You're going to have to pull together as a team, dig deep, and work a lot harder. Life is like that sometimes.

Everyone knows what kind of basketball players you guys are, but this is your chance to show them what kind of men you are, what you are made of down deep inside. Most Blazer fans already know, but the rest of the world doesn't. You get to show them. It is in adversity that strength shines through, and this season just became a lot more about character than about talent. The league and the city will see your quality now.

We don't care about wins right now. All we care about is going out there as a team and fighting the best you can. You'll win more than people think, and you'll help Greg keep his head up. He deserves to have his team stand up for him now, his team and his fans. But most of all, you will be able to stand proud knowing you've done all you can, and we'll be right behind you.

We're with you all the way.

The Sched Ahead -- 11/30/09 Week Six

jscot — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 06:30:40 -0000

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

And on to week six, thankfully leaving a disappointing week five in the dustbin of history.

San Antonio is now a winning team, triggering reclassifications of their opponent's games against them. Sacramento also returned to the ranks of the .500+ teams, proving (for now, anyway) that I don't know what I'm talking about. Congrats to Kings fans. Chicago is now a losing team, for the time being, anyway. Houston flirted with dropping below .500, but wasn't ready to let OKC do that to them. The Clips and Bobcats have both drawn within 2 games of .500 after poor starts to the season.

I'm still tracking the same 9 teams, but in these early days of the season, it looks like the playoff battle could be much broader than that. Sacramento is still at .500 (I don't believe this one is real), OKC is still over .500 (this one might be real), and the Clippers, who many expected would contend, appear to have put their game together even without Griffin, so they could make a run once he gets back. Nor can you write off the Hornets, who are 4-3 since Chris Paul's injury, and should be fine once he is healthy.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) won two of three Cream Puffs (Cat 1) at home and lost a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Utah. Not a very good week at all.

Dallas (2-2) had an up and down week, losing a Cat 1 at home to six guys, making up for it with a Cat 4 win at Houston, solidifying with a Cat 3 Banana Peel win on the road at Indiana, and then dropping a Rocky Road loss at Cleveland. Not a bad week considering Howard and Dampier are out.

Denver (3-1) messed up a good week at the end with a horrible result. Yes, children, there is something worse than losing to Memphis at home -- losing to Minnesota at home. 2-1 on Cat 1 Cream Puffs for the week, plus a Cat 3 win at Minnesota. It's the NBA, stuff happens even to elite teams.

Houston (1-2). Not a good week, losing two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home to Texas rivals. The week was rescued somewhat by a Cat 4 win at OKC.

L.A. (3-0) continues its California Dreaming with two home Cream Puffs against NY and NJ (do they get any creamier or puffier than that?) and a Cat 3 Banana Peel at G.S. Someday these guys will go on the road and we'll find out if they are for real this year.

N.O. (1-1) had a nice Cat 2 win at home against a tough Bucks team, and then dropped one on the road against Sacramento (Cat 4 Rocky Road, since it put the Kings up to .500). Not a bad week -- if they can tread water until CP3 gets back, they'll be fine. Of interest to Blazer fans, Sergio had 24 points and 5 assists with no turnovers in 24 minutes, and Ime played one and a half minutes, with zeroes across the board (yes, Ime is struggling to get PT with Sacramento, despite Kevin Martin being out). Maybe everyone who is wishing we had kept Ime is wrong, and we should have kept Sergio instead.

Phoenix (3-0) is rolling, though not against the hardest competition, winning a Cat 1 home game against Memphis (oh, wait, maybe that is hard), and two Cat 3 Banana Peels, at Minnesota and Toronto.

S.A. (4-0) finally got untracked with their first good week of the year, with two home Cream Puffs (G.S., Philly), a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Milwaukee, and a solid Cat 4 win at Houston.

Utah (2-1) had a decent week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff (Chicago), and splitting two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games (OKC and Portland). The OKC loss hurt, but beating Portland was more important in the long run.

Helped themselves: L.A., Phoenix, S.A.

Decent week: Dallas, Denver, N.O., Utah.

Hurt themselves: Portland, Houston.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	3	4	18
Dallas	3	2	5	17
Denver	1	3	4	19
Houston	3	4	7	16
L.A.	2	1	3	21
N.O.	0	7	7	17
Phoenix	3	2	5	17
S.A.	1	3	4	20
Utah	1	4	5	18

Advantage Houson, only 16 of these games remaining. Disadvantage L.A., they are storing up for themselves a lot of tough road games still to come.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	1	5	14
Dallas	4	1	5	14
Denver	4	1	5	13
Houston	2	0	2	16
L.A.	1	0	1	16
N.O.	1	1	2	15
Phoenix	5	1	6	13
S.A.	0	1	1	16
Utah	2	0	2	16

With two wins in this category, Phoenix has surpassed our win total. The Spurs got well at home this week, they still haven't beat a bad team on the road.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	2	4	19
Dallas	4	0	4	19
Denver	2	0	2	20
Houston	3	4	7	17
L.A.	3	2	5	18
N.O.	5	1	6	18
Phoenix	0	0	0	22
S.A.	3	2	5	17
Utah	2	3	5	18

Phoenix may be unbeaten at home, but then, they haven't yet played anyone good there. Denver is no longer unbeaten at home, but it isn't because of the quality of the opposition. Utah lost a home game to a division rival (Utah) this week.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	1	6	12
Dallas	1	2	3	15
Denver	5	1	6	13
Houston	1	0	1	16
L.A.	7	0	7	11
N.O.	1	1	2	15
Phoenix	6	0	6	13
S.A.	5	0	5	14
Utah	4	0	4	14

Me and my big mouth. Last week, I said, "Well, at least we're taking care of business against weak teams at home." The loss to Memphis hurts less since both Dallas and Denver took home losses to bad teams this week, too. The Denver loss to Minnesota is painful for them because it is a division rival, so could have important tiebreaker ramifications.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	7	3	10	31
Dallas	5	2	7	34
Denver	7	1	8	33
Houston	4	4	8	33
L.A.	10	2	12	29
N.O.	6	2	8	33
Phoenix	6	0	6	35
S.A.	8	2	10	31
Utah	6	3	9	32

Portland, Dallas, Denver, Houston (twice), and Utah dropped home games this week. L.A. continues to burn through their home games, leaving themselves a tough road ahead. Phoenix has a lot of home games left, but almost 2/3 are against winning teams.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	4	9	32
Dallas	7	3	10	31
Denver	5	4	9	32
Houston	5	4	9	32
L.A.	3	1	4	37
N.O.	1	8	9	32
Phoenix	8	3	11	30
S.A.	1	4	5	36
Utah	3	4	7	34

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 30-32 in road games. That record is now 38-35 -- a combined 8-3 for the week, quite impressive. Our road record has now dropped back to middle of the pack. Phoenix has been impressive on the road this year. L.A. and S.A. have hardly seen the road -- each has only left their home state for three games so far.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	3	5	8	37
Dallas	7	2	9	36
Denver	3	3	6	39
Houston	6	8	14	33
L.A.	5	3	8	39
N.O.	5	8	13	35
Phoenix	3	2	5	39
S.A.	4	5	9	37
Utah	3	7	10	36

Denver, Phoenix, and L.A. have the most remaining games against winning teams. Fans who think we've had the lightest schedule need to recognize that while we've played a lot of bad teams, some other teams still have more tough games remaining than we do.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	9	2	11	26
Dallas	5	3	8	29
Denver	9	2	11	26
Houston	3	0	3	32
L.A.	8	0	8	27
N.O.	2	2	4	30
Phoenix	11	1	12	26
S.A.	5	1	6	30
Utah	6	0	6	30

That's two weeks in a row we've lost to a losing team, and all of a sudden we aren't really leading the pack in this anymore. A huge factor in our success last year was taking care of business against bad teams. Last year, our second loss to a losing team came on December 12th, and we've already taken our second one this year. Our third came on January 17th, and we need to get our act together quickly to match that. It is not the Utah loss that hurt us this week -- on a back to back, you lose those nine times out of ten. It's the Memphis loss that was a killer.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	14	8	3	2	1
Dallas	14	5	2	5	2
Denver	16	7	3	2	4
Houston	18	8	4	2	4
L.A.	17	8	8	0	1
N.O.	12	3	7	2	0
Phoenix	17	6	5	3	3
S.A.	14	6	7	0	1
Utah	16	4	5	5	2

Our remaining overall back to back schedule now looks comparable to other teams, except New Orleans and San Antonio. Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	2	0
Dallas	5	0	0	4	1
Denver	5	2	1	0	2
Houston	7	3	0	2	2
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	4	0	3	1	0
Phoenix	9	3	1	2	3
S.A.	6	2	3	0	1
Utah	7	2	2	3	0

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	10	8	1	0	1
Dallas	9	5	2	1	1
Denver	11	5	2	2	2
Houston	11	5	4	0	2
L.A.	16	8	8	0	0
N.O.	8	3	4	1	0
Phoenix	8	3	4	1	0
S.A.	8	4	4	0	0
Utah	9	2	3	2	2

L.A. has the disadvantage because of the number of net back to backs they have remaining. Portland also, not because of the number of games, but because of the quality of opposition in those games.

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	6	0	1	2	3
Dallas	11	1	0	5	5
Denver	16	1	1	11	3
Houston	9	0	0	4	5
L.A.	7	2	1	4	0
N.O.	12	2	1	4	5
Phoenix	10	0	0	8	2
S.A.	9	0	0	6	3
Utah	13	1	3	4	5

In the "tired opponents" category, advantage Denver and Utah, disadvantage Portland and L.A.

The Coming Week

Portland. Finally, some rest for the weary. Two days off before the Cat 2 Miami home game, then three days off before the Cat 2 Houston game (who will be playing their third in four nights). Our last time with two days off in a row was November 4-5. Since then, it has been 14 games in 23 nights. Fatigue may have been an issue for us recently, but it shouldn't be by the end of the week.
Dallas. A testing week for them. They open with a Cream Puff at home against Philly, then go out on the road for a couple of Banana Peels, at NJ and Memphis. We know Memphis can be dangerous if you don't bring a good game, and NJ is likely to be dangerous for several reasons: a) Devin Harris is likely to be getting more effective every day b) first game with a new coach c) a couple of days rest to get ready d) they will bring maximum effort to try to avoid setting a new futility record. It will be no surprise if the Mavs drop one of those two games. Then, they return home for a tough Cat 2 against Atlanta, with both teams on a BtoB.
Denver. Their week opens with a Cat 1 at home vs. G.S. (who is on a BtoB), then a Cat 2 against Miami, then they start a four game trip with a Rocky Road at S.A.
Houston. 3 in four nights on the West Coast, starting with tricky back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Clips and the Warriors. After a night off, they have a Rocky Road Cat 4 at Portland. Not an easy week.
L.A. More home cooking, at least against decent teams this week, with a Cat 1 against N.O. and then two Cat 2 home games against Miami and Phoenix, both of whom will be on a BtoB. That will make 15 home games to only 4 road games, by the end of the week. And the L@kers only have 9 games against teams on a back to back this year, only six against winning teams. By the end of this week, they will have already played three of those, all against winning teams. They had better win these three -- they aren't going to get much help from the schedule the rest of the way.
N.O. If you have your superstar out injured, what do you want on your schedule? 1) Games you would probably lose anyway. Check. They start out with a Cat 4 at L.A. this week. 2) Games you will probably be able to win even without him. Check. They play a Cream Puff against Minnesota at home this week. 3) Lots of days off, so that you aren't losing ground while he recovers. Check. The above are their only two games this week.
Phoenix. Two interesting BtoBs this week. The first is closing out their road trip at NY (Cat 3) and Cleveland (Cat 4). Then, two days off before hosting Sacramento (Cat 2) and going back to back at LA (Cat 4).
S.A. Two home games this week to try to keep the momentum rolling, but much tougher competition. Two Cat 2s, hosting Boston Tuesday and Denver Saturday. I suspect they'll try to send the Nuggets a message.
Utah. Three games, looking to win all of them. They start today with a Cat 1 hosting Memphis (who is on a BtoB). Then Friday, they are at home for a Cat 1 vs. the Pacers, then a Banana Peel away to Minnesota (both teams on a BtoB).

Two wins this week against decent opposition, and we'll look like a good team that may not really be clicking yet. One win, and we look like a decent team with an inflated record because of a soft early schedule. Two losses, and we look like a team that is imploding.

And Finally

I'll keep mentioning the tickets for kids for Blazersedge night until they have all been bought. Here is Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target. Here is Dave's latest post saying over 300 of the 400 have been sold. That was almost three weeks ago, hopefully we'll get an update soon.

Dave's description:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

The Sched Ahead -- 11/23/09 Week Five

jscot — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:13:01 -0000

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

Home games against sub .500 teams. Cream Puff Home.
Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category). Jawbreaker Home.
Road games at losing teams. Banana Peel Road.
Road games at winning teams. Rocky Road.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

And on to week five. I am still keeping half an eye on OKC, but both Utah and N.O. made the case this week that they belong in this analysis. For now, we'll continue to track the nine that contended for the playoffs last year.

Detroit and Sacramento were .500+ last week, but probably won't be again. San Antonio, Toronto, and Indiana are also now losing teams, with varying prospects of reversing that. The only team that moved to the right side of .500 is Utah. OKC stayed on the cusp at .500 exactly, and counts as a winning team.

This means that lots of Cat 4 Rocky Road games have been reclassified to Cat 3 Banana Peels, and Cat 2 Jawbreaker Home games have become Cat 1 Cream Puffs. Most of this will stabilize in the next few weeks.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) won two Cream Puffs at home and lost both road games, a Cat 4 at Atlanta in a good effort and a fiasco Cat 3 Banana Peel at G.S. Not a horrible week, but not very good, either.

Dallas (3-0) is looking strong, with a really nice back to back Cat 4 win at Milwaukee and two Cream Puffs at home (Spurs and Kings). Kind of silly to view the Spurs as a Cream Puff, but that's the way they are playing right now, so I won't apologize. Not sure how this Mavs team lost to the Wizards at home to start the season.

Denver (2-1) had a "shrug" week, sandwiching solid home wins vs. two mid-level Eastern teams (Cat 2 vs. Chicago, Cat 1 vs. Toronto) around a Cat 3 Banana Peel loss at the Clips. The Chicago win was a BtoB for the Nuggets. Last year, it took them months to lose a Banana Peel road game against a losing team. They would have hoped to be opening a lead on us with the way we've played, and the fact they haven't means if we can get our act together, our early season struggles won't have hurt us too badly.

Houston (2-2) didn't have a great week, losing a Cat 2 at home (Phoenix), winning a Cat 3 at Minnesota, losing a Cat 4 at Atlanta, and winning a Cream Puff (Cat 1) at home against Sacramento. Four in five nights, and they won the two in which they were on the second of a back to back, losing the first in both cases. Not a horrible week, but you want to get your home games against your Western rivals.

L.A. (3-0) rolled through three home games, a Cream Puff against Detroit and two alleged Jawbreakers against Chicago and OKC, both of which might well be losing teams by next week. Don't fear these guys yet. They have only played 3 of 13 on the road. Their 5th road game doesn't come until December 12th, their 22nd game of the season. All of this will catch up to them eventually, and they'll have to prove they can handle the road.

N.O. (3-1) sent a memo to the league that reports of their demise are exaggerated. A really nice week without Chris Paul, with a Cat 1 home win against the Clips and two home Jawbreakers against Phoenix and Atlanta (who was on a BtoB), losing only a Cat 4 Rocky Road on a back to back at Miami. The kind of week that can jump start a season.

Phoenix (2-1) had a pretty good week, getting a really nice Cat 4 win at Houston, giving it back with a Cat 3 loss at N.O., and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Detroit, who was on a back to back. It's always good to get a Cat 4, but when you have a chance to steal one at N.O. with CP3 out, you want to get it, and they'll be disappointed with their week.

S.A. (1-2) is just not looking good, losing a Cat 4 at Dallas (understandable) but also a Cat 2 at home against Utah (both teams on a BtoB), their first home loss against the Jazz since 1999. They closed the week with a home win against Washington, which while it was Cat 1 was a nice win, the Wizards looking more dangerous with Jamison back from injury. Still a bad week for the Spurs.

Utah (3-0) moved over .500 for the first time this year, winning two Cream Puffs at home (Toronto, Detroit) and a nice win at San Antonio. Some people wrote them off too early. They haven't been great this year, but they aren't dead yet.

Helped themselves: Dallas, L.A., N.O., Utah.

So-so: Denver, Phoenix.

Hurt themselves: Portland, Houston, S.A.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	2	3	17
Dallas	2	0	2	17
Denver	2	3	5	15
Houston	2	3	5	15
L.A.	2	1	3	18
N.O.	0	5	5	17
Phoenix	3	2	5	15
S.A.	0	4	4	19
Utah	0	4	4	17

Our start of season advantage in this category is gone. Denver, Houston, and Phoenix have an advantage here, with fewer of these toughest games remaining. Our only win in this category is at OKC, which may not stay in this category long.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	1	5	16
Dallas	3	2	5	17
Denver	2	1	3	18
Houston	2	1	3	18
L.A.	0	0	0	20
N.O.	1	2	3	16
Phoenix	3	1	4	17
S.A.	0	0	0	18
Utah	3	0	3	17

Utah, historically one of the worst road teams, is the only team to have played any of these and not lost at least one. Last year, our first road loss in this category was at Golden State. We still have a really good percentage in this category.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	1	2	3	17
Dallas	2	0	2	18
Denver	3	0	3	17
Houston	2	2	4	17
L.A.	4	2	6	14
N.O.	3	1	4	17
Phoenix	0	0	0	19
S.A.	1	2	3	18
Utah	0	1	1	19

L.A. has played most of their games at home, but at least not all of the games have been against weak teams. Phoenix has not yet played a single winning team in Phoenix. We've taken two home losses, but so have some other teams.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	4	0	4	17
Dallas	3	1	4	17
Denver	2	0	2	19
Houston	2	0	2	18
L.A.	4	0	4	17
N.O.	2	1	3	17
Phoenix	5	0	5	17
S.A.	4	0	4	16
Utah	4	1	5	16

Well, at least we're taking care of business against weak teams at home.

All Home Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	2	7	34
Dallas	5	1	6	35
Denver	5	0	5	36
Houston	4	2	6	35
L.A.	8	2	10	31
N.O.	5	2	7	34
Phoenix	5	0	5	36
S.A.	5	2	7	34
Utah	4	2	6	35

Houston and S.A. dropped home games this week. There is no real disparity in home/away schedule remaining, except for L.A. They have been living on home games.

All Away Games

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	5	3	8	33
Dallas	5	2	7	34
Denver	4	4	8	33
Houston	4	4	8	33
L.A.	2	1	3	38
N.O.	1	7	8	33
Phoenix	6	3	9	32
S.A.	0	4	4	37
Utah	3	4	7	34

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 26-25 in road games. That record is now 30-32 -- a combined 4-7 for the week. Our road record is still better than all but Phoenix, Dallas, and L.A. L.A. and S.A. have hardly been out on the road. The Spurs tie Indiana for the fewest games played, so will have a marginally heavier schedule going forward.

All Games Against Winning Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	2	4	6	34
Dallas	4	0	4	35
Denver	5	3	8	32
Houston	4	5	9	32
L.A.	6	3	9	32
N.O.	3	6	9	34
Phoenix	3	2	5	34
S.A.	1	6	7	37
Utah	0	5	5	36

San Antonio and Utah have the most remaining games against winning teams, Denver, Houston, and L.A. the fewest. We're in the middle of the pack. All of Dallas' losses have come to losing teams, as have all of Utah's wins. Utah and San Antonio have simply been bad against the better teams. We haven't been a lot better.

All Games Against Losing Teams

	W	L	Played	Left
Portland	8	1	9	33
Dallas	6	3	9	34
Denver	4	1	5	37
Houston	4	1	5	36
L.A.	4	0	4	37
N.O.	3	3	6	33
Phoenix	8	1	9	34
S.A.	4	0	4	34
Utah	7	1	8	33

Despite the G.S. loss, our record against losing teams is still superb, and is keeping us in the mix.

Back to Back Games Remaining

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	15	7	5	1	2
Dallas	16	7	2	5	2
Denver	17	5	6	1	5
Houston	18	7	5	3	3
L.A.	18	6	10	0	2
N.O.	12	3	7	1	1
Phoenix	17	6	5	3	3
S.A.	14	6	7	0	1
Utah	16	4	5	5	2

The category shifting makes this look a lot better than last week, three of our Cat 4 back to backs turned into Cat 3s. Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	4	0	2	1	1
Dallas	6	1	0	4	1
Denver	5	1	2	0	2
Houston	7	3	0	3	1
L.A.	1	0	0	0	1
N.O.	4	0	3	0	1
Phoenix	9	3	1	2	3
S.A.	6	2	3	0	1
Utah	7	2	2	3	0

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	11	7	3	0	1
Dallas	10	6	2	1	1
Denver	12	4	4	1	3
Houston	11	4	5	0	2
L.A.	17	6	10	0	1
N.O.	8	3	4	1	0
Phoenix	8	3	4	1	0
S.A.	8	4	4	0	0
Utah	9	2	3	2	2

Note the scheduling disadvantages here, especially for LA, Portland, and Dallas. Approximately half of LA's road games at losing teams come when they are on a back to back and the other team isn't. Expect them to drop a couple of these games which they might not otherwise lose, as a result. For us and Dallas, it isn't so much that we have a lot of these games as that a larger percentage of our tough road games are back to backs.

Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

	Total	Cat4	Cat3	Cat2	Cat1
Portland	7	0	1	2	4
Dallas	11	0	1	6	4
Denver	16	1	1	10	4
Houston	10	0	0	4	6
L.A.	7	2	1	3	1
N.O.	12	2	1	4	5
Phoenix	10	0	0	6	4
S.A.	10	0	0	5	5
Utah	14	1	3	5	5

In the "tired opponents" category, advantage Denver and Utah, disadvantage Portland and L.A.

The Coming Week

Portland. Four games this week, as the early season grind continues. Next week, we'll get a couple days off in a row, finally. Start with a Cat 2 home against Chicago, then two Cream Puff Cat 1s against NJ (who will be on a BtoB) and Memphis, then a tough BtoB at Utah. Less than three wins would be a major disappointment, four would be very encouraging.
Dallas. Tough week for the Mavs. 4 in 5 nights, starting with a Cream Puff at home against the Warriors, then the next night at Houston for a Cat 4. Then a night off before a Banana Peel at Indiana, and then on to Cleveland for a Cat 4 (both teams on a BtoB). 2-2 would actually be a pretty decent week for them.
Denver. Cream Puff week for them. It starts with NJ at home, then a BtoB Banana Peel at Minnesota, then two more Cream Puffs at home to the Knicks and Minnesota. If they lose one of these, it will be a real bonus for us.
Houston. Tough home games against Dallas and S.A., then closing the week at OKC. Two wins would be a solid week for them.
L.A. A Cream Puff Cat 1 against the Knicks, then their system will go into total shock as they play a game away from L.A. Well, except they'll still be in California, they go to the Warriors (but on 3 days rest), then have a "tough" back to back where? In L.A., of course, against the powerful Nets. They are in the middle of an entire four weeks where they never leave California, five weeks where they only have two away games, one at Denver and one at Golden State. This is not necessarily bad -- the schedule will catch up to them, and they'll have to prove they can win the tough games, too.
N.O. A tough Cat 2 at home to Milwaukee, then a Banana Peel at Sacramento. Both are winnable, but neither is likely to be easy for them right now.
Phoenix. A Cream Puff at home to Memphis, then out on their second Eastern trip of the year with two Banana Peels at Minnesota and Toronto.
S.A. An opportunity to get well, with 3 of 4 at home. Starts with a tough Cat 2 at home against the Bucks, then a Cream Puff against the Warriors (who will be on a back to back). A Cat 4 Rocky Road at Houston, and then close with another home Cream Puff against Philadelphia.
Utah. The heart of a six game homestand for them, with three Cat 2s (OKC, Chicago, Portland), though perhaps only Portland will be categorized as a winning team by the end of the week. We'll be on a back to back. They will be expecting to get all three of these, which would put them back in the hunt.

That's it for this week. A win tonight should pretty much guarantee a good week for us -- a win at Utah would be a bonus. Lose tonight, and we have to take care of business in our other games and win at Utah to salvage a good week. If Chicago is going to salvage a decent record on this road trip, let them do it in Utah, not in Portland.

And Finally

Remember tickets for kids?

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

Dave's latest post says over 300 of the 400 have been sold. If you haven't bought any yet, your chance to have a part in this may be gone soon.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night: Monday, January 25th: Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each. There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size. Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637. PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids. (Side Note: We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend. You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.) The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com. We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it. You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.

A Game for Jerryd

jscot — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:37:04 -0000

I have been very optimistic about the prospects of Jerryd Bayless as a combo guard who could serve as our PG of the future.

I have been very cautious about playing Jerryd a lot right now, because he hasn't really looked at ease in the PG role.

I'm ready to put all of those aside for the moment and suggest that this next game, against the Warriors, is a great game for Bayless, just as he is, to play some significant minutes. Why, you ask? Follow my logic and tell me if it makes sense to you.

THE OPPONENT

The Warriors are desperately short-handed. Raja Bell, who just came to them from Charlotte, was their eighth "healthy" player who dressed at Boston. Today, he had surgery (likely season ending) on his wrist. Azubuike is out for the season. Brandan Wright is out until February (and besides, he doesn't even know how to spell hs first name). Turiaf and Devean George are out until at least late this month. CJ Watson has swine flu. Biedrins is out until next week. They only have seven healthy players.
Despite that, they play at a high pace and score a lot.
They just played a back to back in Cleveland and Boston, and have one day off to travel back across the country before playing us. They should be tired.

OUR NEED

Travis is out, and we need offense off the bench.
Everyone is tired after a lot of travel, and we play a back to back in Portland the next night (admittedly against Minnesota, but you still don't want to be exhausted).
The Warriors' up and down style will be wearing if our key players have a lot of minutes.

WHY JERRYD IS A GOOD ANSWER

He is young, and hasn't been playing a lot, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue.
Whatever else one might think of him, he knows how to take it to the hole, score, and draw fouls. That offense will matter against Golden State, you simply can't completely shut them down.
Jerryd draws fouls. Let me just reiterate that. Jerryd draws fouls. If there is a team that cannot afford foul trouble, it is the team that is already short-handed. Well, that's not exactly right. If there is a team that can't afford foul trouble, it is the team that is already short-handed AND tired. Check.
We probably don't need him the next night like we do other players.
Jerryd draws fouls.
Biedrins is out, and there is no real shotblocker who could shut him down at the hoop. They are starting Mikki Moore at center. Hopefully Greg doesn't break him in two, because they have enough injuries. Mikki is 34 years old. Jerryd can be at the hoop before Mikki makes it over half court on many possessions. Is Monta going to defend Jerryd to keep that from happening?
Jerryd draws fouls.
Monta Ellis wants out, and faced with Jerryd's intense (and perhaps annoying) defense, he may just get mentally focused on other things besides the game.
It has occurred to me that Jerryd draws fouls, and it might be a good idea to always have guys out there who can and will drive the lane and draw fouls.
There's a decent chance that Greg draws some fouls and gets their big men in a little foul trouble to start with, and if that happens, they won't want to defend Jerryd taking the ball to the hoop like a madman.
If Jerryd gets fouled, he makes his free throws.

This game is made for Jerryd Bayless to get some real PT in the late first or early second quarter, run out on the break, take it to the hoop, and have some fun.

Oh, and yes, one other thing. Draw some fouls.

Poll

Should Jerryd get some significant first half PT?

Yes, it's worth a try

237 votes

No, he's not ready

11 votes

No, because Ben will be insufferable if he does and has a good game

19 votes

267 votes | Poll has closed