SB Nation User Blog: jtts

Starter V. Reliever - Historical Look at Rookie Pitchers

jtts — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:27:19 -0000

Is it better for a pitcher to start in the bullpen or should we throw him to the wolves and let him figure things out in the rotation?

I examined the 20 pitchers that have received at least 1 first place vote for Cy Young since 1990. I wanted to know whether or not highly successful pitchers broke into the majors as starters or were eased in via the bullpen.

14 pitchers made at least 20 starts their rookie year and later received first place votes for Cy Young

Query1

Starters

nameFirst	nameLast	GS	G	Relief Appearances	Rookie Year
Tim	Lincecum	24	24	0	2007
Dontrelle	Willis	27	27	0	2003
Brandon	Webb	28	29	1	2003
C.C.	Sabathia	33	33	0	2001
Roy	Oswalt	20	28	8	2001
Mark	Mulder	27	27	0	2000
Freddy	Garcia	33	33	0	1999
Andy	Pettitte	26	31	5	1995
Esteban	Loaiza	31	32	1	1995
Darryl	Kile	22	37	15	1991
Doug	Drabek	21	27	6	1986
Bill	Swift	21	23	2	1985
Roger	Clemens	20	21	1	1984
Dennis	Eckersley	24	34	10	1975

However, only 6 pitchers were broken in via the bullpen for a large part of the season (20 relief appearances).

Query1

Relievers

nameFirst	nameLast	GS	G	Relief Appearances	Rookie Year
Johan	Santana	5	30	25	2000
Trevor	Hoffman*	0	39	39	1993
Trevor	Hoffman*	0	28	28	1993
Bobby	Thigpen	0	20	20	1986
Jose	Rijo	5	24	19	1984
Jimmy	Key	0	63	63	1984
Bob	Welch	13	23	10	1978

Hoffman appeared on the list twice because he pitched for San Diego and Florida his rookie year.

There were quite a few more pitchers that didn't fit either criteria (less than 20 games pitched their rookie year). In fact, 20 pitchers made less than 10 appearances. Of those, almost all of them were starting as soon as they came in. Jason Schmidt and Robb Nen were the only ones to break in via the bullpen in a partial first season.

Query1

Partial First Season

nameFirst	nameLast	GS	G	Relief Appearances	Rookie Year
Josh	Beckett	4	4	0	2001
Eric	Gagne	5	5	0	1999
Roy	Halladay	2	2	0	1998
Jason	Schmidt	2	9	7	1995
Robb	Nen	3	9	6	1993
Pedro	Martinez	1	2	1	1992
Pat	Hentgen	1	3	2	1991
Kevin	Tapani*	0	3	3	1989
Kevin	Tapani*	5	5	0	1989
Kevin	Appier	5	6	1	1989
Randy	Johnson	4	4	0	1988
Ramon	Martinez	6	9	3	1988
Curt	Schilling	4	4	0	1988
Jose	Mesa	5	6	1	1987
Tom	Glavine	9	9	0	1987
Jack	McDowell	4	4	0	1987
Greg	Maddux	5	6	1	1986
Kevin	Brown	1	1	0	1986
Randy	Myers	0	1	1	1985
Dave	Stewart	0	1	1	1978
Jack	Morris	6	7	1	1977

*Tapani pitched for the Mets and Twins his rookie year.

What does all this mean? I dunno. It sure looks like the very best of the best pitchers didn't need to be eased into the majors via the bullpen. What other generalizations do you see?

Historical Look at Rookie Role Switching

jtts — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:19:04 -0000

Every time I see someone complain that the Rangers are moving Derek Holland back to the bullpen or back to the rotation with exasperated "WHY WON'T THEY JUST PICK ROLE FOR HIM AND LEAVE HIM THERE!!!!!!!!!" frothing from their imaginary mouths, I think to myself, "self, why does it matter? Throwing a baseball is throwing a baseball."

So I decided to dive into some numbers and see what they said about pitchers in Holland's position.

For this little study I looked at all pitcher in their rookie year that made at least 10 starts (Holland only has 7, but its a safe bet that he gets to 10) and made at least 10 relief appearances. The database I was looking at didn't have the breakdown on whether or not the pitcher was shuttled back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation.

For the years 1990-2008, I found (only?) 20 pitchers that met that criteria. The results were not spectacular.

First	Last	GS	G	Debut Year
Darryl	Kile	22	37	1991
Bob	Scanlan	13	40	1991
John	Doherty	11	47	1992
Felipe	Lira	22	37	1995
Mike	Mimbs	19	35	1995
Sid	Roberson	13	26	1995
Julio	Santana	14	30	1997
Sidney	Ponson	20	31	1998
Joe	Mays	20	49	1999
Dan	Perkins	12	29	1999
Joe	Beimel	15	42	2001
Brian	Lawrence	15	27	2001
Jorge	Sosa	14	31	2002
Billy	Traber	18	33	2003
Matt	Roney	11	45	2003
D.J.	Houlton	19	35	2005
Robinson	Tejeda	13	26	2005
Zach	Miner	16	27	2006
Ricky	Nolasco	22	35	2006
Fernando	Nieve	11	40	2006

I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from this. Obviously we're not getting a bunch of superstars. Darryl Kile and Joe Maysare the only ones to make an AS roster. Going back further in time doesn't get a lot better. Going back to 1980 only adds Saberhagen and Wetteland.

I'm intrigued to see whether or not throwing a pitcher into the rotation or breaking him in via the bullpen is the better option. I'll look into it and get back to you with some more names.

No Hitter Alert Service

jtts — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:35:34 -0000

With about a month left until I head back to work (and a month and a week until the kids come back), I'm looking at finally getting around to writing a script to automatically send out an alert when the no hitter watch is on. Here's how my back of the envelope plan looks: Script reads in a webpage that has all the game linescores for that day. Script scans the linescores looking to see if a game has any hits. Once a certain inning is reached (possibly user definable?) an alert gets sent out via rss/twitter/email. The email contains teams, inning, score, and pitcher with the no-no going.

I wrote a little program to scan minor league teams for statistics off thebaseballcube so I'm not completely out of my element on this one. The only technical hurdle will be learning how to post to twitter/rss. That's doable.

So here's what I'm asking you for: Sites that you use to get in game line scores. Preferably it lists teams, score, hits (obviously), and current pitchers. The better the site is about updating the better the service will work. I usually use yahoo sports when I want to know a line score, but I don't think they're always as updated as some other sites. If you've got a better one I'm more than happy to look at it.

I've done some searching around and haven't found anything like this, but if somebody has a link to a place that already does this I'd be more than happy to go back to watching NCIS and House reruns on USA for the next month. I'll leave it to somebody else to write the script to monitor Closed Captions from CNN/Fox/MSNBC to look for car chases.

Poll

Would You Use a No Hitter Alert Service?

Yes

22 votes

No

33 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Scrappyness

jtts — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 01:06:11 -0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJD8k2hgRmU

Playing Hardball with Ron Stalinovich, career minor leaguer.

When you go to the ballpark, are you seriously gonna pay 4.50 for a hotdog?

Links to the other videos (and an AWESOME '86 Mets music video)

Commercials for Easton bats. The other videos feature Carlos Zambrano, Andre Ethier, Brad Hawpe, and Matt Kemp. Watching Zambrano in the "taking one for the team" video is delightful.

John Patterson

jtts — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 20:26:43 -0000

Released by the Nationals.

He lost the last two years to injuries after a really nice 2005. Now 30, he's lost a chunk of velocity and isn't likely to ever regain his past form.

cribbed from rotoworld:
"Nationals released RHP John Patterson.
Stunning. Obviously the Nationals shared the same concerns about Patterson's lack of velocity that we did, but he still looked like their probable Opening Day starter and they'll only save about $600,000 by cutting him. They're left with a rotation of Shawn Hill, Jason Bergmann, Tim Redding, Odalis Perez and either Matt Chico or John Lannan. They'll probably need both young lefties initially with Hill likely to open up on the DL."

Did You Know of the Day / Week / Month / Year

jtts — Tue, 22 May 2007 16:52:29 -0000

The Rangers currently lead the majors in HR with 64. That puts them on pace to hit 230, tied for 24th most in the history of baseball.

Amongst the 24 teams to have hit more than 230 HRs in a season, 17 finished with records above .500. The overall winning percentage of these teams was .532 (86-76). To reach 86 wins, the current Rangers would need to win 58% of their remaining games (68-49).

Switching gears...

Since the change to the divisional playoff format in 1969, 142 teams have finished May with a .400 winning percentage or worse (they finished the year with an average winning percentage of .415).

Of those teams, four of them came back to reach the playoffs (3%). Most recently, the Houston Astros won the Wildcard in 2005 despite starting the year off 19-32. The others to come back from a horrible first three months were 1989 Toronto Blue Jays, the 1981 Kansas City Royals, and the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates

Did You Know (of the day / week / month / year)

jtts — Mon, 14 May 2007 13:02:49 -0000

Three women played in the Negro Leagues.

Replacing Hank Aaron, Toni Stone played 2B in 50 games and hit .243 in 1953 for the Indianapolis Clowns.

Mamie Johnson pitched herself to a 33-8 record in three years between 1953-55 also for the Clowns.

After selling Stone's contract to the Kansas City Monarchs in 1954, Connie Morgan played two years at 2B.

Millwood to DL, Littleton called up

jtts — Sat, 05 May 2007 21:30:56 -0000

cribbed from texasrangers.com:

The Rangers have placed pitcher Kevin Millwood on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring muscle.

The move is retroactive to April 29. Reliever Wes Littleton was called up from Triple-A Oklahoma. Mike Wood, who started against the New York Yankees on Thursday, is replacing Millwood in the rotation

Kinsler gets a deeeluxe apartment in the sky

jtts — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 16:58:50 -0000

Cribbed from rotoworld:

Manager Ron Washington said Monday that he likes Ian Kinsler hitting seventh against right-handers.

Kinsler should never have been hitting ninth against them in the first place, so moving him up a couple spots is at least a start. "Everybody kept asking me when I was going to move him up. Well, I jumped him two spots," Washington said. "To go any farther, though, he's going to have to move past some veteran hitters. When he does that, it will be safe to say 'He's arrived.'"

He's not quite as high as some of us think, but Washington's certainly not saying that he won't move up higher. I'm satisfied for now.

My Cowboy Draft

jtts — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 15:05:43 -0000

1/22 - Dwayne Jarrett(WR) - USC - Whereas Ted Ginn reminds me of Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett reminds me of Keyshawn Johnson. I think he has the talent to be a top notch possession receiver that goes over the middle to make tough catches for about a decade.

2/53 - Quentin Moses(LB) - Georgia - He's free falling because of concerns about his work ethic. He originally looked like he could have been a top 10 pick. I like Bobby Carpenter as much as the next guy, but I think he can play any of the LB positions.

3/87 - Michael Bush(RB) - Louisville - Another player freefalling, this time because of injury. Before his second surgery, I was in favor of taking Bush with the first round pick. When I look at him I see Brandon Jacobs. I want a Brandon Jacobs on this team.

4/122 - Ikaika Francis(DE) - Hawaii - He'd almost certainly need a year to develop, but the Cowboys may have the luxury of him playing sparingly at least to start. He's shown good instincts and continuous improvement throughout college.

5/159 - Tyler Palko(QB) - Pittsburgh - If I had concerns about Romo, I'd have taken a QB before the 5th round. No, Palko is an insurance policy should a rash of injuries occur. Palko seems like the kind of player that could get into 3-4 games at the end of a season when the QB gets hurt and some other team turns around and gives up a 1st or 2nd round pick for him. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Romo (similar size, run and gun mindset, leadership, etc), but I wouldn't draft a guy only because he reminds me of Romo.

6/195 - Chris Denman(OT) - Fresno St - Big Guy. Coachable. Project. My master plan has McQuistan developing enough to replace Flozell after next year with Denman becoming the new 3rd/4th tackle being groomed to move onto the line.

6/200 - Tim Mixon(PR/CB) - UC-Berkley - Small guy. Punt Returner. Project at CB. Mixon is probably too small to ever be an everydown CB (5'8"), but he's a good punt returner and I expect that Reeves will be given the first shot at the nickel CB role if Aaron Glenn (another small guy) ever retires.

7/212 - Ryan Poles(OG) - Boston College - I know nothing at all about him other than that he went to Boston College. Seriously. I looked at their roster from last year and he's was the biggest senior that I expected to still be available at the end of the draft. He could be a one legged albino with severe brain damage, but as long as he went to Boston College I'll take a flyer on him. (I found something about him! - "Ryan C. Poles, born September 20, 1985...Earned All-America honors from Parade, SuperPrep, PrepStar and Riddell...enrolled as a communication major in the College of Arts & Sciences...Ryan and his younger sister Kelli are the children of Mary Ellen and Robert Poles, Jr. ...his sister is a sophomore member of the University of Vermont women's basketball team ... his father was a standout defensive lineman at Boston College from 1979-82." - Sounds like a winner to me!)

7/234 - David Ball(WR) - New Hampshire - Broke Jerry Rice's DI-AA TD record. Did I say broke? I meant SMASHED. He obviously won't have the same type of success at the next level, but he's got good size and has shown the ability to be a very good possession receiver (I'm all about moving the chains).

7/237 - Craig Dahl(ST/S) - N. Dakota St - Small school guy with good size that can contribute to special teams while they decide whether or not he can play defense.