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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jordan Smith: Matt Maloney was unexpectedly called upon to start the game, had a rough 39 pitch first inning and started but failed to record an out in the third inning.  Smith relieved Maloney, and threw 3 innings of 1 run baseball saving the bullpen from complete disaster.   Honorable mention goes to Nick Masset for his two perfect innings of work, and Bill Bray for his scoreless inning of baseball, and Brandon Phillips for his 2-5 night and solo home run.

Key Plays

Tony LaRussa replaced his starting pitcher with Miguel Batista before the game started, while Dusty Baker stuck with Edinson Volquez.  6 pitches into the game, a 2 hour 10 minute rain delay happened.  Scheduled starter Kyle McClellan replaced Batista after the rain delay.  Edinson Volquez did not return either, pressing long reliever Matt Maloney into service. 

Maloney struggled but didn't get blown out.  The 39 pitch first inning gassed him, as prior to today Maloney has not thrown more than 53 pitches in a game.  Maloney was either lucky or tough, as he only gave up 2 runs despite allowing 9 base runners.

Jordan Smith replaced Maloney and promptly recorded a double play, and got out of the 3rd with no damage.  Smith got the Reds through the fourth and almost got the Reds through the fifth inning without allowing a run; but in a back breaking play immediately following Bruce gunning Matt Holiday down at third for the second out, Smith gave up an RBI single to Yodier Molina, to make the score 4-1.

Brandon Phillips hit a solo home run in the 5th, bring the Reds to within 2 before Smith allowed the run.

The Reds had a number of chances to score and a number base runner blunders too depressing to document.

via www.fangraphs.com

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I didn't actually watch the game, well other than watching Joey take a walk in the late innings when the mlbnetwork gave us a live look in from the bar I was watching the game at.  But....

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I can't sleep.  So let me set the stage; the Cardinals have a one run lead and it is the bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, runners on first and second, Ryan Franklin is "closing" the game and Miguel Tejada is batting and is hanging tough,  there is a 3-2 count, and he is hitting ropes just foul. 

Then this...

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This should really be a fanshot, but you can't put a poll in a fanshot.

With Football season mercifully over, until they start covering mini camp in 2 weeks, we can now turn our Cincinnati sports eyes to baseball. 

Over the past five seasons Aaron Harang and opening day became synonymous, I really just began to associate the big guy with the start of all things wonderful.  But with Harang now toiling in San Diego the Reds have lost their staff ace Emeritus. 

So who will take the ball on March 31st?  The easy answer would be Bronson Arroyo, he has age, wisdom, and has pitched pretty well over the last two years; except last year Arroyo said he doesn't want to pitch on opening day.  So it probably comes down to Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. 

Last season Cueto took a big step in his career, he kept his ERA under 4 and was pretty solid throughout the entire season with some flashes of brilliance.  Yet the post-opt Edinson Volquez missed the first half of the season struggled early on but was pretty dominant in September; so good that he was given the ball in game one of the NLDS (I think, I have no memory of this game so I prefer to think it never happened).  Also Volquez was pretty dominant in 2008, so that counts for something I guess.

Of course there is the Dark Horse, RR favorite, Travis Wood.  Wood looked very good last year, he started 17 games, but didn't face many teams multiple times, so in some ways Wood is still untested and unproven, and has yet to prove himself 3 times around the league. 

Who is your choice to take the honor of standing on the bump at 2:10 on March 31st?

Long time Yankee pitcher Andy Pettitte will officially retire from baseball tomorrow.  Pettitte is best known for his post season theatrics, especially when he burst onto the scene in 1996 and shut down the Atlanta Braves.  After reading about Pettitte's upcoming retirement I looked over his stats and noticed he had a very good career with solid control and mediocre strike out numbers. 

Watching Pettitte, there was nothing really fantastic about him, he didn't throw terribly hard and none of his breaking balls were lights out.  He simply had a number of good pitchers and solid command which allowed him to continue to get hitters out.  His other big attribute was his ability to go deep into games.  He averaged 6.3 innings per start in his big league career and compiled 10 200 inning seasons, and he only failed to make 30+ starts 3 times. 

Yet his strike out numbers were pretty pedestrian, over his career he averaged 6.63 K/9IP but posted a solid 2.83 BB/9IP and 2.34 K/BB.  He also didn't throw terribly hard, since 2002 his average fastball is 88.9 MPH.

Compare those to Bronson Arroyo's numbers.  Arroyo has a career average of 6.01 K/9IP, 2.73 BB/9IP, 2.2 K/BB, and like Pettitte doesn't throw terribly hard, (average fastball since 2002 88.5 MPH), yet throws a slew of pitches and is able to out think the batter.

Many people at RR and other blogs have argued the Arroyo's lack of strikeouts and stuff makes him a mediocre pitcher who is bound to breakdown and fall into Jeff Suppan territory before the end of his extension;  arguing that almost all pitchers who have pedestrian stuff fall off a cliff in their early to mid 30s.  Most Arroyo comps have been gloomy.  Yet Pettitte proves that there are some pitchers who can make an almost Hall of Fame career, with an average fastball and strike out numbers.

I know your favorite moment of 2010 was when Jay Bruce hit that long fly to deep center field to secure the 2010 NL central division.  This was a magical, and mostly unexpected season, so there are lots of excellent choices.  So lets create a highlight thread of the best moments of the best Reds season in quite some time.

My favorite was Heisey, Ocab, and CCM gunning down Skippy. I remember when this happened I just jumped up and down, screamed and yelled and ran through my apartment. This was the day I started to believe in the 2010 Reds!

Mike Leake is currently on pace to throw 211 innings.   That sounds kinda high for a rookie, especially a rookie with no previous professional experience.  Fay argues that the Reds won't let Leake get close to 211 innings.  Yet I don't think the innings are really an issue.  The most pitches Leake has thrown in a start is 106, he has average 98.55 pitches per start.  My question is, considering that Leake doesn't even average 100 pitches per start, how relevant is limiting the number of innings he throws?  Would 32 starts, throwing 98 pitches per starts, be detrimental to his arm? 

Also what do the Reds do if they are still in contention come August, if they decide Leake has reached his innings cap?  Welsh today suggested using Chapman, but I can't imagine Chapman would be in much better shape come August, as this is also his first professional season, and it isn't like throwing pitches in AAA is stress free.  I guess Wood and Maloney are in Louisville and could be used if needed, but Leake is the superior pitcher, and in a close race Leake could be the difference. 

I know there are cautionary tales about other young starting pitchers who were burned out in playoff chases.  Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were different.  In 1998 Wood made 14 starts where he threw at least 107 pitches (one more pitch than Leake's season high to this point), 8 starts where he threw more than 120 pitches, and he threw 133 pitches against Cincinnati in his second to last of the regular season in 1998.  In 2002 Prior made 7 starts where he threw 107+ pitches, and was allowed to throw 135 pitches in a start.  In 2003 Prior made 20 starts where threw at least 107 pitches, 9 starts where he threw 120+ pitches and 3 starts where he threw 130+ pitches. 

If Leake continues to pitch well he should not come close to throwing that many pitches.  When Leake pitches well he doesn't throw a lot of pitches, he wracks up strikeouts, but he isn't a strikeout pitcher, and he has superb command so he doesn't walk too many hitters, that lowers his pitch count.  He seems quite able to get outs early in the count.

I think the Reds should watch Leake's workload closely, but I think they should be more concerned about the number of pitches he throws, rather than the number of innings.  I don't think they should automatically shut him down at a pre-prescribed inning, rather look at his pitch counts, and also look at his success, if he suddenly loses a bit of velocity or command, shut him down, but if he continues to breeze through the league, he is probably fine.