SB Nation User Blog: justin007000

What the Reds should do about their rotation.

justin007000 — Mon, 18 May 2009 13:20:37 -0000

Owings' 5.2 innings of relief has put a huge wrench in the rotation. What scares me is the rotation that is currently listed at Reds.com. Yesterday it listed Owings as Tuesday's starter, now it lists Owings as Wednesday's starting pitcher. I hope that is just because they don't want to write TBA. Here is what the Reds should do.

Tuesday:Cueto

Wednesday: Harang

Thursday: Maloney

Friday: Arroyo

Saturday: Owings

I would like to give Owings an extra day of rest, and Thursday's game is 12:35 PM, and he threw his last pitch Sunday morning at about 3AM, so that isn't a typical four days rest. Cueto and Harang would remain on normal rest with my plan. Also calling up Maloney gives the Reds the opportunity to skip Volquez this time through the rotation, which I think would be a good idea, give his back plenty of time to rest. Maloney started Saturday, calling him up on Thursdays would allow him to pitch on his regular rest.

Roster Moves:

DL Masset now, don't start LeCure tonight, instead call him up, and let him sit in the bullpen Tuesday and Wednesday night. Demote Lecure on Thursday and call up Maloney, demote Maloney after Thursday's game and call up Fisher.

If the Reds follow my plan they will give Volquez some time to rest his back, and decrease the chances of him agravating it, they will give Owings plenty of rest, so his last apperance won't be drag on his arm for a period of time, and it won't negatively effect Cueto, Harang, or Arroyo as they would all be pitching on their regular rest. Plus calling up LeCure will give them some length in the bullpen Tuesday and Wednesday, and Fisher has earned the call and both pitchers are on the 40 man roster.

Jose Rijo is a Movie Star

justin007000 — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 15:06:05 -0000

Jose Rijo is a Movie Star

Rijo has a role in the new film Sugar, and he served as a consultant to the movie, which is interesting considering his federal indictment.

I really want to see Sugar, too bad Americans have no taste in movies and it isn't even showing at the Esquire. I guess I'll have to wait until it comes out on DVD.

Dutch Baseball

justin007000 — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:22:54 -0000

It is set in stone, the plane tickets, train tickets, and hotel rooms are paid for. I will be in Europe from June 2nd-15th. I will be in Amsterdam from the 6th-9th, does anyone know anything about Dutch baseball? I would really like to take in a Dutch baseball game while I am there. The only site I could find on the subject is the Netherlands offical website which oddly enough is in Dutch.

I will also be in Ireland and Germany, but I am pretty sure that they do not have professional baseball.

Who should get the 5th spot?

justin007000 — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:23:10 -0000

I argue Bailey. He has more upside than Owings, and I woud like to keep his positive karma going. Owings is at best a 3 starter, Bailey could steal dominate the league. I like Owings but I just don't see him dominating in the way Bailey can. I don't have any stats to back this up, I'm going with my guy. Please state your arguments below. As always boobs is non-of the above (Masset?).

Poll

Who has earned the 5th spot?

Homer Bailey

70 votes

Micah Owings

104 votes

Boobs

90 votes

264 votes | Poll has closed

Coke is now the Reds drink, and other important things to know when going out ot the ole ball yard

justin007000 — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:44:30 -0000

via the fay

This serves as a public service announcement to help all of us greater enjoy a game, while spending less money.

This makes me wonder how much influence Griffey had over that. Coke was the soft drink of the Reds as far as I could remember until 1999, don't believe me check your sovenior cups. Can one star players personal sponser change the entire marketing of a team. Remember that Griffey was a paid a pretty penny to be a spokesman for Pepsi. Is this normal throughout sports?

Also remember that before the Reds dropped Coke, Coke had a bottling plant in Cincinnati, I remember seeing Cincinnati on my coke bottles, and now they are botteled in Atlanta.

Some other changes.

They have added a hit me sign to the truck.

The HOF and Museam has an exhibit about Crosley Field and the Negro Leagues.

The Reds have bought a shitton of carbon emissions so they don't destroy the environment.

And remember like always you can take food into the park, and this was in another thread but I will reiterate it here.

Guests are welcome to bring SOFT-SIDED coolers into Great American Ball Park provided the coolers' dimensions do not exceed the 16" x 16" x 8" inch Major League Baseball size requirement. HARD-SIDED coolers of any size are prohibited from entering the ballpark. Coolers and all carry-in items are always subject to inspection by Reds personnel prior to entrance to the ballpark or at any time while inside the ballpark. The Reds are not responsible for HARD-SIDED coolers that are left outside of the ballpark gates. Guests are strongly encouraged to return their HARD-SIDED coolers to their vehicles.

Somebody at RR Needs to Sponsor this

justin007000 — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 04:24:53 -0000

Somebody at RR Needs to Sponsor this

I wish I had $30 to burn...

A Red's fans Perspective on the 2009 Rockies

justin007000 — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 13:15:30 -0000

A Red's fans Perspective on the 2009 Rockies

We are doing a series of previews over at Redreporter, and I just wrote a preview about the 2009 Rockies.

Feel free to ridicule me and tell me how wrong I am.

Colorado is no Longer on Holliday: A 2009 Colorado Rockies Preview

justin007000 — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 03:30:45 -0000

You all know the Rockies Story; they took the baseball world by storm and won 14 out of their last 15 games to clinch the NL Wild Card in 2007. The Rockies followed that up with a disappointing 74-88 (which matched their Pythagorean record) record in 2008. The Rockies were a fluke in 2007 and in some ways give (false) hope to teams such as Cincinnati. We all remember Bob Castilini’s speech after he bought the Reds which included something to the effect of small market teams usually need luck to succeed. Teams such as a the Rockies which won as a fluke give credence to such thoughts, and teams say "Look at the 2007 Rockies they weren’t expected to win, and they did, so we shouldn’t try to make smart decisions, instead we should just hope for a whole bunch of mediocrity to put together career years".

As many of you know I am an expert on the Rockies because I attended a game at Coors Field and went to the DNCC last August. Seeing Barack at Invesco makes me an expert on the Rockies.

Me gaining my expertise:

Colorado biggest off season loss was Matt Holliday, but he may be replacable. He was a force in their lineup. Let us take a look at the rest of their expected 2009 starting lineup. (Thanks to Purple Row’s head mod Russ for his projected lineup and rotation.)

Manager: Clint Hurdle- Hurdle has been at Colorado’s helm since early 2002. He has managed 1113 games, all in Colorado, and has 516 wins and 597 loses. 2007 was the only time Colorado finished above third place under Hurdle’s leadership. He put together a solid big league career, including a cup of coffee with the Reds in 1982. He debuted for the Royals in 1977 at the age of 19. He was the ultimate utility player, and played infield (including catcher), and outfield. He only played in over 100 games twice. But he had an OPS+ of 105 in 1391 at bats. His career took at turn in 1982 and he was not the same hitter after that.

LINEUP (Career Numbers)

CF Ryan Spilborghs, (.302/.347/.466)

Spillbourgh is 29 years old, and debuted in 2005. He drafted by the Rockies in the seventh round of the 2002 draft out of the University of California, Santa Barbara. Spilborghs is a decent leadoff hitter with a little some power. He wouldn’t fit in Dusty’s world because he only stole seven bases last year, and on top of that was caught stealing four times. So maybe his bad aggression would fit in Dusty’s world.

* 2B Clint Barmes, (.263/.301/.468)

Barmes is 30 years old and he debuted in 2003, and he was eighth in the 2005 ROY voting. He was drafted by the Rockies in the tenth round of the 2000 draft out of Indiana State University. 2008 proved to be a career year for him as he put a line of .290/.322/.468, all career highs, he also put up an OPS+ of 99, compared to his career OPS+ of 75 (Ouch). I’ll take Brandon Phillips

1B Todd Helton, (.328/.428/.574)

Helton is 35 years old and he debuted in 1997. The Rockies drafted Helton in the first round (eighth overall) of the 1995 draft out of the University of Tennessee. Helton is definitely the face of the Rockies franchise and has played for the Rockies in all but four of their seasons. Helton has was an All Star from 2000-2004, and won the silver slugger from 2000-2003. He was second in the ROY vote in 1998 and received MVP votes in 5 seasons.

3B Garret Atkins, (.298/.360/.474)

Atkins is 29 years old and he debuted in 2003. The Rockies drafted Atkins in fifth round of the 2000 draft out of high school. He ended up in fourth place on the 2005 ROY ballot, and was in 15th place on the 2006 MVP ballot. He has been durable over the last three years playing in 157, 157, and 155 games respectively.

RF Brad Hawpe, (.282/.375/.493)

Hawpe is 29 years old and debuted in 2004. The Rockies took him in the 11th round of the 2000 draft, which seems to have been a productive draft for Colorado, out of Louisiana State University. He is another very able hitter, as he can hit for average, get on base, and hit for power. His numbers are just a tick better than Atkins.

SS Troy Tulowitzki, (.276/.346/.435)

Tulo is just 24 years old and debuted in 2006 at the age of 21. The Rockies drafted Tulo in the first round (seventh overall) of the 2005 draft out of the University of California Long Beach. He was the runner up on the 2007 ROY ballot. In the same year he turned an unassisted triple play, the 13th in MLB history, later that season he was also involved on the other side of a triple play. Tulo missed a month and a half last year with a torn left quadriceps. One can assume his numbers were depressed because of the injury.

Prior to 2008 he signed a six year $31M contract, the largest given to a player with less than two years experience until Bruan received a larger contract later that year. Tulowitzki is the kind of player a GM would want to build his team around, he is young a good defender, and an excellent hitter at a position in which offense is a plus, I guess the Reds were too busy drafting Jay Bruce that year.

C Chris Iannetta, (.249/.368/.440)

Iannetta is 25 years old and he debuted in 2006. The Rockies selected Iannetta in the fourth round of the 2004 draft out of the University of North Carolina. Iannetta is currently playing for Team America in the WBC. He is a good hitting catcher with a low average, but he gets on base a lot. 2008 was a monster year for Iannetta as he hit .264/.390/.505 with an OPS+ of 127. That is huge production to get from a catcher.

*LF Seth Smith (.284/.366/.466 (in just 116 at bats))

Smith is 26 and debuted in 2007. The Rockies selected him the second round of the 2004 draft out of the University of Mississippi. He has limited playing time but he put up an .885 OPS in the minors. He will probably be another productive bat in the Rockies lineup. Smith may soften the loss of Holliday.

Pitcher

*Russ thinks Barmes and Smith could be interchangeable, given Barmes inability to get on base he would probably be better suited for the eight spot.

According to Baseball Think Factory’s lineup analysis this lineup projects to put up 5.215 runs per game or 845 runs next season. If properly configured it could score 5.538 runs a game or 897 runs next year or if Dustballs put it together it would only score 4.922 runs a game or 797 runs next season. It is a very powerful lineup, if I weren’t lazy I would do home road splits, but who has the time? I used Aaron Cooks line for the pitcher.

Every player projected to start for the Rockies was drafted by the Rockies. I think that is impressive. Also all of these guys, accept for Atkins, were drafted out of college, Billy Beane is probably nervous that other teams may be catching on.

Rotation (W-L, ERA, ERA+)

Aaron Cook RHP (52-44, 4.36, 110)

Cook is 30 years old and debuted in 2002. The Rockies drafted him in the second round of the 1997 draft out of my al ma mater Hamilton High School. His mom was a secretary in my Dad’s office. Cook has done the impossible in Colorado; he has put up long term success. He has put up an ERA+ over 100 in six out of his seven seasons, but has only reached 200 innings twice.

He suffered a scary moment in 2004 he left a game against the Reds early due to a blood clot in his lung. He missed the rest of 2004 and a portion of 2005. He may be a young thirty as he has only logged 929.67 innings in his career. I look for him to continue to put up good numbers.

Ubaldo Jimenez RHP (16-16, 4.06, 115 in just 288.3 innings)

Jimenez is 25, and debuted in 2006. The Rockies signed Jimenez as an amateur free agent in 2001. Jimenez put up a solid sophomore season last year going 12-12 in 34 starts, compiling 198 innings, with a 3.99 ERA and an ERA+ of 115. He is a young hard throwing guy, who if he can stay healthy may have a nice career ahead of him as a top of the rotation pitcher.

Jason Marquis RHP (79-70, 4.55, 96)

Marquis is 31 and made his debut for Atlanta in 2000. The Braves selected Marquis in the first round (35th overall) of the 1996 draft. Marquis can be a very frustrating pitcher. He has made negative comments about both Leo Mazone and pitching witch Dave Duncan. It seems like he wears out his welcome were ever he goes.

I know stats people hate to hear that players are "inconsistent" but I can’t figure out any other way to describe Marquis. It seems like he has the ability to be a number 2 or 3 pitcher but just can’t keep it together from one season to the next. His ERA+ is at its lowest in his last year with a team, with Atlanta in 2001 over the course of 129.3 innings he put up an ERA+ of 128, but with the Braves in 2003 (he only pitched 40.67 innings with the Braves spending the rest of his season in Richmond), his ERA+ was 77, but it jumped up to 115 with St. Louis in 2004, also with St. Louis in 2006 it dropped to 74, with the Cubs in 2007 it was 101, but to take a little air out of my argument it was 99 in 2008 in Chicago.

The Rockies could get league average, a high level starter, or a bad pitcher with Marquis, he is pretty volatile and teams should have a backup plan.

Jorge de la Rosa LHP (25-31, 5.55, 83)

De la Rosa is twenty eight years old, and debuted in 2004. The Diamondbacks signed de la Rosa as an amateur free agent in 1998. He has never spent an entire season in a big league rotation. 2008 was a career year for la Rosa he tied a career high and pitched 130 and 23 starts, and had a career high; 10 wins, 1.462 WHIP, and 128 K’s. There is little to be excited about with de la Rosa, as he is a below average pitcher, and probably should not be in a big league rotation.

Franklin Morales LHP (4-4, 4.71, 103)

Morales is just 23 years old, and debuted in 2007. The Rockies signed him as an amateur free agent in 2002. He has done little positive or negative in the Major’s having logged just 64.67 innings over 13 starts, and his minor league numbers are nothing special, and include an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.51 (OUCH), but he has struck out 545 batters in 538.3 innings, while walking 316 hitters (another OUCH).

Moarales 2008 in AAA does little to help my confidence in him. In 110.3 innings he struck out 83 batters, while waling 82 batters, and put up an ERA of 5.47 and a WHIP of 1.72.

He is a hard throwing young lefty, and from looking over his stats he seems to be a guy stats minded people hate but scouts love. He is the anti-thesis to Matt Maloney, who in 522.67 minor league innings has struck out 534 batters, but only walked 120, and has a WHIP of 1.20, and an ERA of 3.38, but Maloney is a soft tossing lefty and is not as trusted by "baseball men".

I predict Morales will bounce around the big leagues as long as he has a blazing fastball, and scouts and GM’s will be enamored by his blazing fastball and think "we can fix him". He will have a few flashes of brilliance, and if he is lucky ends up being able to harness his control enough to be a useful piece in a bullpen, but I doubt it. There are so many red flags on this guy it isn’t even funny.

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

The fifth spot is still up for grabs between Morales, Greg Reynolds, and Greg Smith, but Smith is lagging behind the other two due to illness. The rotation is in a bit of flux with Jeff Francis expected to miss all of 2009 due to shoulder surgery. Greg Smith seems like the best candidate to take the job, but illness may knock him out of competition.

Bullpen:

Closer: Manny Corpas and Huston Street will be splitting the closer and setup duties. Corpas lost his job to Fuentes last season. Street struggled with Oakland last season and lost his job, and has shown little in spring training this year. These two could regain their form and be an 8th/9th inning tandem to reckon with, or they may both suck terribly and prove that relief pitchers are very volatile commodities.

Taylor Buchholz, brother of Clay, is also in the Colorado bullpen. He is injured right now, but he could hold the closers role if Corpas and Street struggle. Buchholz put up a WHIP of .95 last season over 66.3 innings.

Jimmy Haynes All-Star

Josh Fogg-He hoodwinked the Reds to give him $1M after he went 10-9 over 165 innings with Colorado in 2007, but he was the "Dragon Slayer", and was a "clutch pitcher". I guess the Reds didn’t play good enough teams last year for the "clutchiness" to come of the Fogg. He was in the mix for the 5th spot, but there has been little mention of him by any of the previews I read about the Rockies. They also have former Red Matt Belisle who I was very high on and made me look a fool.

Bottom Line: As for par the Rockies have a good offense and not so good pitching. The rotation has no proven pitcher after Cook. Jimenez has only logged 288 big league innings, Marquis is a thrill a minute, de la Rosa ought to be pitching in the International or Pacific League, and they have no proven pitcher for the 5th spot. The bullpen is also riddled with question marks. The team looks like some of the Reds teams over the last 7 years or so.

The Rockies do not seem to be nearly as good at developing pitchers as they are at developing hitters. I am not sure if the organization’s philosophy is to draft hitters over pitchers because of their ballpark, or if they are just bad at selecting pitchers, but the difference between their offense and pitching is huge.

Analysis Request: Tom Browning, John Smiley, and Tony Saunders

justin007000 — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:34:12 -0000

These three pitchers all broke their arms while trying to throw a baseball. It is a freak injury. Jay Powell and Chris Reitsma also broke their arms while throwing a pitch, and Christ Reitsma is the only pitcher who made a sucessful comeback after such an injury (as far as I know).

Browning broke his arm, and made a breif return with the Royals after his injury, but realized he was a shell of the pitcher he used to be and retired. Browning broke his arm in 1994 after dealing with some previous arm injuries.

Saunders broke his arm a second time in a rehab start, and retired, allthough he made another comeback attempt in 2005 with Baltimore but only made one Spring Training apperance.

Smiley broke his arm warming up in the bullpen before a game, and attempted but failed to return to baseball. Smiley's arm had a fairly clean bill of health, and there is nothing in his K or BB rate that indicates that he had lost stuff. His WHIP was up a bit, but he may have had some bad luck, unfortunately I am not privy to his BABIP in 1997 as compared to the rest of his career.

Powell broke his arm in a different place than the previous three mentioned, and he had just returned to the Majors after Tommy John Surgery.

Reitsma broke his arm fairly early in his professional career. He also had a plethora of arm injuries after that.

Is there anythign that sticks out in these pitchers mechanics that could lead to such a drastic injury? This injury seems to be far more catosrophic than a torn labrum , rotar cuff, or elbow injury.

Driveline Doesn't like Lotzkar

justin007000 — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 04:29:57 -0000

Driveline Doesn't like Lotzkar

Are friends over at Driveline Mechanics seem to think Lotzkar is an injury waiting to happen.