Am I the only one watching this game?  

Matsuzaka is struggling.  He has thrown 60 pitches threw 2 innings and loaded the bases twice.  Blanton is pretty much crusing.  I guess Doc was right.  Steve Phillips is bruttle to listen to.  By looking in Matsuzaka's eyes he could tell he was ready to compete.  I would like to see a game in the Tokoyo Dome.  I do think this game is bullshit. My roomate was pissed that I woke up at 5:50AM.  It puts Oakland and Boston at a disadvantage, and these count as 2 of Oaklands home games, giving them only 79 home games.

He only pitched 2/3 of an inning.  Does this erase everything he has done so far? He gave up 3 hits, 5 walks, didn't strike anyone out, and 5 runs.  He threw 41 pitches.  Does this mean at the very least Homer Bailey is back in the running?  There is enough time for both Bailey and Cueto to get one more start.  I am guessing if Cueto pitches well enough in his next start, he will still be in the rotation.  Maybe he is in his "dead arm" period.  If Bailey puts up a big game his next start and Cueto sucks again, they could trade places.

The bullpen has become a little bit clearer.  The Reds cut Coutlangus and Majewski.  Coutlangus hasn't had a terrible spring, he did have a slow start.  He has only walked one and struck out 5 in 6.2 innings.  I am guessing we will see him at some point.  I wouldn't be surprsied if we never see Majewski in a Reds uniform again.  

According to the Fay Belisle is "out of the picture" because of a sore forearm.  That pretty much means we will be "Fogged in" unless Homer Bailey dazzeles in his last appearance of the Spring.  It also says that it takes Bailey a long time to warm up.  Should that be a warning of arm problems to come?  If he has trouble getting loose* could that be the sign of an arm problem, or could that cause problems for him pitching in cold weather?  

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/03/rotation-its-set.asp#comments

Could we take bets on the day Wood goes on the DL. With Pinella at the helm he will more than likely be injured.  It is interesting they replaced Dusty who was blamed for ruining Prior and Wood, with Lou, who isn't much easier on young arms.  Well I still need a few more characters to make this a diary.

I say May 27th.

Norris Hopper CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
Jay Bruce DH

P Jeremy Affeldt vs. Buddy Carlisle. Also pitching: Mike Lincoln, Justin Lehr, Tom Shearn, Gary Majewski and Jon Coutlangus. Also available: Tyler Pelland, Marcus McBeth, Ramon Ramirez. Josh Roenicke and Daryl Thompson.

Via Fay.

Who do you think will make the opening day roster, what do you think the starting rotation will look like, and the opening day lineup?

Continue reading this post »

Ridiculous - JD

It isn't official until 2:00PM but the Reds PR hasn't gotten a heads up.  They received advanced notice when Marty was voted into the HoF.  This is a little ridiculous.  I realize that he wasn't the best announcer, but he was Cincinnati fans favorite announcer.  Announcers are there for the fans, and it is obvious by the votes he received that he was incredibly popular.  What criteria do announcers have to meet?  It seems to me that the most important part of being an announcer is being popular amongst your listeners/viewers.  Harry Caray wasn't a great announcer in his play by play or color abilities, but he was loved by the fans of every team he worked for.  I am angry. It is official now. Dave Niehaus, a Seattle announcer won the Frick Award.

Camp Dusty is set to open Saturday.  Every spring training there are a couple of surprises.  What do you think will be the biggest surprise this spring?

I'll go first because I created this diary.

Kent Mercker's velocity is around 91 MPH and he makes the team.  He takes Stanton's spot as "old left handed guy in the bullpen who may or may not have used H.G.H.", but Mercker is much funnier, and more of a pleasure to be around.  Plus Mercker had brain surgery and that is always cool.  Stanton is DFA'ed.  Stanton is also DFA'ed to cut down on the price of charter flights, as Delta begins to charge Cincinnati by the the pound.

In a related move the Reds force Todd Coffey to have his stomach stapled.  

Remember how he kept saying he was going to retire, well that was a lie.  I am not sure how I feel about Selig.  He has whored the sport out to ESPN and Fox, and that has effected the playoffs.  The steroids scandal took place under his watch.  Oh yeah the players strike, and a close call in 2002.  But the industry is also booming right now.  

PS rotoworld has it listed under Milwaukie.  I found that incredibly amusing considering his conflict of interest.  Isn't it time to send the Brewers back to the AL?  

I wanted to know, as a fan just getting to know sabermetrics, if I properly applied it in a debate I was involved in on another forum.  I never thought about sabermetrics until this site, and I want to know if I am basically on target.  

Question?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by antlers
Why is WHIP not as good as ERA. Because 1 homerun given up doesn't equate to one walk. If you can give up a couple hits, but get out of the inning with key strikeouts, that's much better than giving up a homerun or something. The team with the most hits and walks doesn't win the ball game. Runs matter.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(MY RESPONSE)

There are pitchers who give up a lot of homeruns but yet can keep a decent ERA. Harang and Lily tied for the 10th in most homeruns (28) given up in the MLB last season, and both had ERA's in the 3's.

In 2006 Arroyo and Harren were tied for 8th and allowed 31 homeruns, Arroyo's ERA was 3.29, and Harren's, was 4.12. They got away with that because Haren's WHIP was 1.21, and Arroyo's was 1.19.

If a pitcher gives up a homerun a start, but doesn't give up a lot of hits or walks, so the homeruns are mostly solo's it doesn't hurt him. I really don't care how many homeruns a starting pitcher gives up, if a relief pitcher is prone to homeruns that is another story.

To think about this logically, a pitcher (X) lets say keeps a WHIP of 1.17 and allows 1.3 HR/9. He will mostly give up solo's, because he doesn't allow that many baserunners, so his ERA will stay low. But another picher (Y) has a WHIP of 1.51, and has allows less then a homerun/9 , there will be so many baserunners a lot of runners will score, and when he does give up a homerun, it is probably be more damaging. In fact it is possible pitcher X who will probably give up about one homerun every start, may allow the same amount of runs via the homerun, but because he doens't allow many baserunners, less runs overall, pitcher Y who will allow a homerun lets say 2 out of every three starts.

Plus if a pitcher has a high WHIP (especially if he has a high bb/9), he will not beable to throw as many innings as a pitcher with a low WHIP. It means he will be allowing a lot of hits, and walks, and it will take him more pitches to complete an inning. Also if he allows a lot of walks hitters will probably be more patient, and work him deeper in counts, then say a guy like Greg Maddux who is a strike throwing machine. So it may take apitcher, who has a WHIP of 1.55, 100 pitches to complete 5 innings, where as a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.18 will beable to complete 6 or 7 innings with 100 pitches. How many CG lines do you see where a pitcher allows 10 hits and 4 walks?

Pitchers can suceede in Cincinnati, Philley, Colarado, Houston, and the other "hitter friendy parks" if they keep there WHIP's low. There ERA might be a little higher, because they will give up a few cheap homeruns, but if they give up solo homeruns it won't really damage them.

WHIP also equalies the ballparks, because a pitcher who pitches for San Diego, or Oakland will give up less homeruns then if he pitched in the above mention ballparks. The WHIP can give us an idea of how he will pitch in more hitter friendly environoments.

You also said key strikeouts. Relaying on "key strikeouts" game after game after game isn't practicle. That is like saying a guy knows how to win. Eventually the odds will catch up to him, and instead of getting that "key strikeout" or that "clutch double play", eventually he will allow a homerun when he is in trouble. Basically the less trouble a pitcher is in the less runs he will give up, it is elementary. How many times have you watched a game and saw a pitcher, who skated out of trouble for the first three innings, maybe allows 11 baserunners in the first three innings, but only 1 or 2 score, and then in the 4th he completly blows up, and allows a 3 run homerun. The other thing is sacrifice flys, if a pitcher allows a baserunner to reach, he steals second, reaches third on a ball hit to the right side of the infield, all it takes is a sack fly and he is "manufactored"."

(I would like to learn more about sabermetrics, and I hope this is a diary in which to discuss just that.  I am a little gunshy about diaries, because I had a period in which I put up several useless ones.  I just didn't know where this belonged in an already existing thread)

So, I guess this may be it

SARASOTA, Fla. -- It seemed only fitting that I start this farewell post where it all really started, here in lovely Sarasota.

At this very moment, I'm sitting at Maria's Chicken ready for yet another great meal but an Adam Dunn homer from the Reds' spring training complex. I'm down on Florida's gulf coast to serve as best man for my dear friend Marc Lancaster's wedding on Saturday.

It's been about a year since Marc took a job covering the Devil Rays for the Tampa Tribune and I realized my dream of covering Major League Baseball, and not just any big league squad, but the one that started it all -- the Cincinnati Reds. And what can I tell you? I had a blast.

And one of the biggest reasons I had such a great time was you and this blog. We built a community (with a generous and wonderful head start passed on by the afore mentioned Marc Lancaster, who preceded me on the Reds beat for the Cincinnati Post.

As most of you know, I will be the last Reds beat writer for the Cincinnati Post. The paper, a staple in the Queen City since 1881 Will be rolling the last issue off the press on Monday. It's a sad day for the people who have worked hard putting out the paper, but if you ask me, it'll be a sadder day for the city of Cincinnati. The city has lost an important and unique voice -- and in this day and age of more and more voice shouting to be heard, it's a sad day when a steady, calm voice is silenced.

As journalists, we live with constant deadlines, but Dec. 31, 2007 was a deadline in the most literal sense in the word. We all knew that this was the day that we'd be out of work. I knew that in March 2004 when I moved from Alabama to Cincinnati. I knew it then and I know it now and I've never regretted the decision for even an instant. I saw coming here as a way to achieve my goal of covering Major League Baseball and I succeeded.

I also succeeded because of the number of talented, dedicated journalists I've worked with at The Post. Everyone knew the limitations we were handed as the "underdog" paper and as an afternoon paper in a world that can't wait to get home from work to read the paper, or even wait for it to be physically printed on paper. The people I've worked with at The Post never used our numerous disadvantages as an excuse, instead it was treated as a challenge. It was like Avis, which has the slogan, "We try harder." That's what The Post did -- we tried harder. And as a result, we did beter. We took pride in what we did every day.

Starting with the man who hired me, former sports editor Frank Carini, I was led by example. No matter what jokes we had about "our reader" (note the singular) everyone worked their tale off to serve that reader (whom I dubbed Bob) the very best coverage of the local sporting scene that we could.

Please indulge me for a second as I tell you a little bit about these fine people who will be out of a job next week.

The week I accepted the job at The Post, I saw the future and was excited anyway. That week, Reds beat writer Tony Jackson left to take a job at the Los Angeles Daily News. We always congratulated those who got off the sinking ship, but that didn't mean we stopped paddling. Next, just as I started, we lost another talented journalist, Jason Williams. Jason left the UC beat to go work at the St. Paul Pioneer Press, leaving us not only a person down, but me a friend moving on just as I arrived in a new city.

Frank Carini was the next to leave, leaving us a huge void. However, we were lucky enough that the higher-ups moved Keith Herrell from the news side over to sports. Keith had the unenviable job of dealing with a sports writing staff -- one of the most thankless jobs in the world, plus doing the job of another person by working on the desk every night. Keith, who is now serving as the managing editor and the sports editor here in the last days of The Post, has never once complained, although he's certainly heard his fair share of complaints.

As noted above, dealing with writers is never easy. Writers, by and large, have an ego, and as good as our staff is, there's certainly enough ego to go around. It's the nature of the beast. And the people who deal with the brunt of the writers are those on the copy desk. It's a difficult and thankless job, especially at a place like The Post, where the typical desk shift is 9-to-5 -- p.m. to a.m. I have to tip the cap to Dan Hopwood, who doesn't have a fancy title, nor could one accurately describe the crap he puts up with. Dan had to deal with the writers the most directly, and also read our raw, unedited copy, which he was certainly not paid enough to do. But Dan, like the rest of the staff, always did everything with the goal of putting out the best product possible. We may not have always agreed with exactly what that meant, but we always had the same goal. And Dan will be working these last couple of days just as hard as he did the first, because in the end, The Post was a reflection of him and his work.

While Dan could cuss up a storm with the best of them (i.e., me), Dave Tippenhauer was the yin to his yang, the Teller to his Penn. Tippy never complains about anything, just goes out to do the best job possible. Tippy barely says anything (well, except at Frank's going-away party at his house when he took full advantage of home court), but just goes about his job. There's a reason we all love Tippy, and any organization will be better with him.

Then there are the unsung guys, John Lachmann and Tom Ramstetter. I'm not exactly sure how to explain what these guys do, but the short answer is everything. Trust me guys, it was noticed by those who worked with you and appreciated.

Then there's the writing staff.

Marc Lancaster -- Marc and I started at The Red & Black, the student newspaper at UGA, back in 1995. We've been friends since, working together at the R&B, then The Athens Daily News/Banner-Herald and finally here at The Post. You can't ask for a better friend or mentor, both roles Marc has served for me. (Or, as Hopwood would point out, the writer of the cleanest copy known to man. Unlike, well, me.) I'm honored to call Marc a friend and honored to know him as a professional.

Josh Katzowitz -- The third member of the Bulldog Mafia. I got to know Josh when I was covering UGA men's basketball for the Banner-Herald and he was doing the same for the R&B. Even then, with the exceptions of a misstep in Gainesville, I could tell this kid was a dogged reporter and an incredibly talented writer. Since he came to The Post, we've become great friends, and for that, I'm incredibly grateful.

Kevin "GoGo" Goheen -- I was introduced to Kevin on my interview here -- he tagged along for free dinner, as is his custom. And, as his custom, we had a few drinks afterward, too. You will never meet a better, more fun person than GoGo. The Bengals beat won't be the same without GoGo and his ever-present laugh. A Cincinnati native, GoGo can always be counted on to introduce the foreign members of The Post to his hometown, which he so dearly loves.

Terry Boehmker -- The nicest person on Earth. Honestly. And, well, also the person with the most knowledge of Kentucky High School sports. A good prep writer in this business is worth his weight in gold, and Terry's worth way more than that. Northern Kentucky doesn't know what it's losing, even if they think they do have an idea. Good thing I know I can always head to Herb and Thelma's and grab a beer with Terry. And trust me, I'm gonna take advantage of that.

Lonnie Wheeler -- Seriously, dude can put together words like nobody I've ever met. The most wonderful writer I've ever gotten to work with. Anyone who has read Lonnie's columns has undoubtedly had the moment where they've read a sentence and immediately reread it because it was so wonderful. It just sounds great and begs to be read aloud. A brilliant writer, Lonnie's also one of the kindest, most genuine people in the world. Although Josh and I would often pick on him, he always took it. And, he wasn't too bad at dishing it out himself. One of the funniest things I've ever heard was a couple of years ago when I was sent to cover the Flying Pig Marathon. Lonnie, there to write a column, looked at me and deadpan said, "It must be weird for you writing about one of these after running in so many." I still laugh at that one. The delivery was perfect.

I will miss every one of these people, not only because they are my friends, but also because they made me better at my job and a better person.

I'd also like to thank you guys. I started blogging for this site in earnest across the street at Ed Smith Stadium. That's where you were introduced to what I can only say is me, my flaws and everything. That's what I've enjoyed as much as anything. Part of being a journalist is playing things straight, just the facts ma'am reporting. That's what I tried to do for the newspaper, but the blog was different. The blog let me have fun, and I hope it allowed you to have fun as well. No, it wasn't always about baseball, but life isn't about baseball. There are days -- few, mind you -- that I don't want to think about baseball and want to just hang out with friends. I've been able to do that here. It reminds me of good bar conversation, you may be talking about baseball, but it can go all over the place -- music, movies, relationships, recollections, every different bit of life -- and it's a great time. That's what I had with you guys, a great time.

During spring training, someone said if I continued to do my blog like I did in the spring, I'd go crazy. Instead, it was the opposite. It kept me sane. Sure, it added about three hours of work to my day, but none of it seemed like work. That's because of you guys. Thank you, I can't think of anything more valuable.

And finally, I've been humbled by the number of emails I've received asking about my future. Honestly, right now I'm not too sure. I thought I had it all figured out at one time, but I don't right now. I'm lucky enough to have two opportunities -- one here in town and one out of town. Both are incredible opportunities working for good folks and prime jobs. I am interviewing out of town on Jan. 3, and honestly, as much as I love Cincinnati, it's doing a full-time baseball beat with all the travel and the entire spring training period. That's very important to me and something I've liked so much, I am entirely open to upping and moving once again, even if it means I won't have ready access to Skyline.

There's also an opportunity here in town that would be incredible, fun and challenging. It's an exciting new opportunity with people who are thinking forward and have some great ideas, and they want me to be involved. With that, this also won't be goodbye, just a chance to move to different surroundings. If that happens, let's just say the word will get out.

I hope to know my future by the second week of January, but there's still so much up in the air. All I know is that I'm gonna miss this spot (and even the terrible picture -- well, not that part). Thanks guys for everything.

CTR
12/27/7
_____________

I prefered Lancaster to C. Trent, but he was our best resource, and now he is gone.  John Fay is just about worthless, and Hal McCoy seems to be a bit of a dinosour, plus he doesn't have a blog and can't "break" the news to us, the way Fay and Trent are able.  I think this is going to be a major loose for Red's fans.  Anytime a market loses a media source it is bad for the people.  I can't remeber the last time I read a an actual Cincinnati Post, it hasn't been sold in Hamilton for a few years, but I read it almost everyday online.  John Fay is so medicore, while the Post has had Tony Jackson, and Marc Lancaster.  Unfortunatly I think John Fay is here to stay, I hope the Dayton Daily News replaces Hal McCoy with a strong writer when the time comes.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071123&content_id=2306777&vkey=news_ml b&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

"Kennedy's life came to a tragic end early Friday morning when he died after passing out at home in Florida. He was 28.

After passing out, Kennedy was taken to a local hospital, where he was pronounced dead, said Hillsborough County (Fla.) sheriff's spokeswoman Debbie Carter, who had no further details......

"The cause of death is unknown at this time," Lapa told FOXSports.com. "The best guess at this point is either a heart attack or a brain aneurysm. The way he died was sudden. There is no reasonable explanation for what happened."

He was nothing more then a journey men pitcher.  But it is still shocking.  Three MLB players have died in a little over a year.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071113&content_id=2299621&vkey=news_ci n&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

He seemed to be better suited for the buisiness side of baseball, rather then the baseball side.  He will stay on as a consaltunt.  He is rather replaceable.  He made a name for himself after he took the place of Marge Schott in 1996.1 Update [2007-11-14 0:2:19 by justin007000]: He will be a consultant only for the search for a new spring training home. After that he is riding off in the pasture to Kansas, where his wife is taking a job. BC said that it was completely Allen's decision.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071108&content_id=2296359&vkey=news_mlb&fext=. jsp&c_id=mlb

If I were a 3rd base coach I would have wanted protection long before  Mike Coolbaugh was killed by the line drive.  I have seen too many close calls.  I have always wondered why baserunners were required to wear helmets, but coaches weren't.  

The stapler has filed for free agency.  I am guessing that means his days as the Big Red Stapler are over, unless he goes to St. Louis, Boston, DC, or Atlanta on home Sundays.  Eric Milton is a testoment to the best of intentions. Most of us in Red's nation tried to rationalize it.  I remeber my excitment.  I was younger, and I did not completly understand the Red's inability to make compenetent decisions, I just remeber the pitcher I saw on a Saturday afternoon in 2004 who fell just short of a no hitter.  I just remeber his ERA under 5, even if just barly.  I thought his record is 14 and somthing in 2004, he must know how to win.  Now I understand wins and loses can be found in WHIP, K/9 BB/9 H/9 and K/BB.  http://www.cincypost.com/2004/12/28/reds12-28-2004.html

That was the article that I read.  It made my optomistic.  I should have realized that Milton can't top a rotation, especially in GABP.  I was such a fool.  I remeber actually being excited about the prospects of Milton, Wilson, Ortiz.  

Anyway, I guess this is it Eric.  I really wish I could say thanks for the memories.  But those memories of homeruns, forever scar my mind.  

PS-
Milton you might want to get your neck looked it, it had to be strained from turning you head to watch all those tape measure shots.

Does anyone know how Stan Belinda is doing.  Slyde opened up an old wound from 1999, and I was looking at Red's stats and saw his name.  I know he was diagnosed with MS, and tried to pitch in 2000, but was ineffective and retired.  He was a part of a great generation of relief pitching in Cincinnati.  When Sullivan, Belinda, White, Williamson, Graves, and others were a part of a consistantly excellent bullpen.  

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=3024046

I never realized he was as much of a pioneer as he was.  He was always just the guy who did a lot of surgieries for souther sports teams, like Kremcheck performs a lot of surgieres for Midwest teams.  Kremcheck was a protege of Andrews.  Jose Rijo is mentioned in this article.  It is very interesting, Andrews has done quite a bit for sports medicine.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/10/06/ddn100707mccoy.html

He wants to trade Hamilton, and possibly trade Encarnacion.  His plan is to replace Hamilton with Bruce and Hopper, and Encarnacion with Kepinnger.  His reasoning for trading Hamilton is with Griffey, Bruce, Dunn, and Hopper, the Red's have a strong outfield.  What he fails to say is that Griffey is injury prone.  He also mentions that Griffey has only 1 year left.  So this is an incredibly short sited plan.  There is no guarantee that Dunn will be a Red after 2008 season. He may be too expensive, or he may just be ready to get out out of Cincinnati.  That would leave potentially two holes in the outfield, to be filled by Bruce and Hopper.  I like Hopper as a fill in, but not everyday.  Plus really who is looking to deal a marque name?  His reasoning for trading Encarnacion, is the Red's probably can't trade Gonzo.  He said taht Encarnacion either looks like a superstar or a supderdud?  Was he watching the second half?  The guy was struggling to hit .200, until mid May, and he got his average all the way up to .289.  He OPS'ed at 794 this year.  He hit 16 homeruns.  I expect his power to improve with time.  I can see him putting up similar numbers to Phillips.  

Why trade them with Bailey and Cueto in the wings?  How does he write this, and call himself a beat writer?  I somtimes fear this is Krivksy's thinking too.  Krivksy doesn't seem to have a long term plan.  I hope this is fiction.

The thing that I would change, that is relativily easy to change, about MLB is the schedule.  I would elimante interleague play completly.  I enjoy going to Cleveland every year, and watching the Red's lose, but it really fucks up the schedule.  The Red's played the Indians as much, give or take a gmae, as any team in the NL East or West.  There is a problem with that.  I think that teams should play more games against teams in their division then those out, but the schedule is rediculous.  16-18 games in teh division, but 6 out.  Why not drop it to, with interleague play eliminated, 14-16 in, and 12 out.  12 Would mean that you have 2 trips to each city.  I don't know how the math works on that exactly, but the incredibly unbalance in the schedule favors teams in weaker divisions in Wild Card Races.  

Anybody notice a similarity between this season and 2005?  The Red's have an manager, who is in his second full season, after taking over midseason.  The Red's fall out of contention early.  The manager is fired, a new manager comes in.  They play really well for about 2 months.  Everybody (press) wants to name the interim manager of the year.  Griffey get's hurt in September.  Then they flounder in the last month.  Am I the only one who notices a trend?

Also notice how this team can't put togeather one full decent season?  2002, 2004, 2006, they play well in the first half.  2005, 2007, they play well in the second half.  

Arroyo v Zambranon

Last series.  I hope the Red's break the Cub's fans hearts yet again.  I have a lot of family from the Southside, so I have been raised not to like the Cubs.  My 82 year old Grandfather has taught me well.

Arroyo gets the ball tonight. He hasn't been as good as he was last year, but he has been solid, except for that stretch in May and June when he had nothing on the ball.  We hoped he would reproduce last season, but we were thinking with our hearts if we expected him to put up another 3.29 ERA.

Zambrano goes for Chicago.  He has pitched below expectations this season.  Lilly has been the Cub's best pitcher, who'd a thunk it on opening day.  Lilly's WHIP is much lower, and he has a slighty better K/9 then Zambrano.  Really who would have thought?  I don't think, at least at this point, I would want Zambrano to pitch in a big game.  I would be incredibly nervous if he were pitching in a playoff game.  He can't even handle opening day.  The guy is a headcase.  He melts at the slightest adversity.

Hopper cf
Keppinger 2b
Votto lf
Encarnacion 3b
Cantu 1b
Ross c
Ellison rf
Lopez ss
Belisle p

Rastros
Anderson cf
Burke 2b
Berkman 1b
Lee lf
Pence rf
Lamb 3b
Brunlett ss
Towles c
Rodriguez p

From Butcher:

The Reds today selected from Louisville the contract of IF Mark Bellhorn (#7) and transfered to the 60-day disabled list LHP Bobby Livingston (left shoulder surgery, 9/6)...Bellhorn is his third stint with the Reds (6g from 7/31-8/11, 4g/1gs from 8/15-8/21)...on 8/20 vs Atl he made his only start for the Reds (3B)...he appeared in 98g at Louisville (.255, 23 2b, 12hr, 57rbi), including 50 apps at 2B and 13 apps at SS.

I am so glad Bellhorn will be back.  I was thinking, I am sure everyone else on his board was thinkng this too, that god damn what the Red's need to play the role of spoilers in the the last week of the season in Mark Bellhorn.  

Belise makes his last start tonight.  Here's to hoping he can go out on a positive note. I saw his first start of the season in person.  He threw 6 innings of 1 run ball.  He has taken his lumps, but he has survived, in a way, his first full season as a starter.  He will hopfully have more then 175 IP.  Any sort of improvment on 2007, he will be a 200 inning pitcher.  His ERA is high, but it isn't complelty rediculous.  I wrote in another diary, that his periphals in 2007, are similar to Harang's in 2004.  If he doesn't suck next spring, I want him to start the season in the rotation. Not that I am saying he will pitch like Harang next season. I just feel that our expectations were too high. We lost sight that he is a first year starter. I also feel that he may be a little tired, he pitched in winter ball, so he did not have much of an off season to rest.  

I asked you grade Krivksy, now lets just find out how many of us approve of him, and for the majority think he is an ok not bad, better then Mike Brown, GM.

I think he is solid.  I am not ready to fire him.  This year was a down year, but 2006, for much of the first two month's the Red's played way over their heads.

Unfortunatly I can't work "boobs" into this pole.

I feel like, while this year Krivksy has taken some lumps, a small majority of us still think he could be a quality GM.

I will be in China in November, and I am trying to find information on Chinese Baseball, although I doubt their season will be active while I am there, unless they all play in domded stadiums.  All I can really find is a short wikiepdia article.  Any help would be greatly and mcuh apreciated.  MMMMMMMMMMMOOOOOOORRRRRRREEEEEEEEE TTTTTTTHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Harang, Bailey, Cueto, make up the playoff rotation.  

McBeth-7th
Bray-8th
Burton-9th

Arroyo is availiable for long relief.

Lineup

RF-Hamilton
SS-Kepp
CF-Bruce
LF-Dunn
2B-Phillips
1B-Votto
3B-Encarnacion
C-?????
Pitcher

If Votto and Bruce do what they are capable of, the only soft spot is the catcher, and that could change.  The rotation could be damn nasty, all three power pitchers.  That is a scary playoff rotation.  This is why I think the Red's should not sign a free agent starting pitcher.  If they can get a David Weathers level reliever to add to the bullpen I am all for that.

I still am optomistic about the future.  I can't remeber the last time I saw potential in the future.  Bruce, Bailey, and Cueto have restored hope in the Red's future.

Last new Diary of the day I promise....

It seems that now that Tommy John Surgery isn't that big of a deal.  Most young pitchers can return to the level they were playing at before they were injured, about 18 months after surgery.  It screws up parts of 2 or 3 seasons, but it isn't a death sentince.  Jose Rijo is one of the only pitchers I can think of who was South of 35, and did not come back from Tommy John.  PItchers who have Tommy John and don't return to their previous level, are usually older, or hurt their shoulders trying to compensate for their bum elbow, or in their rehab, because they failed to consider that their shoulder weakened while they were on the shelf.  

Shoulder injuries on the other hand....  Rotarcuff, Labrum, or capsule surgery is almost a death sentence.  Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhousen, Jeff Brantley, Ty Howington,  Kerry Wood, Doc Gooden, Jason Gruller, etc etc etc.  All of these pitchers either lost their career, or could not return to their previous level of sucess.  Isringhousen is the most sucessful, allthough he was forced to go to the bullpen.  Paul Wilson seems to be typical.  He was able to come back, and be average, but his 97 MPH fastball turned into 87.  He was a bottom of the rotation guy.

I think Livingston might be done, because most pitchers lose velocity with severe shoulder surgery, and he can not afford to lose any more velocity.  I live in fear that Harang, Bailey, Cueto, or Arroyo will have shouler problems.

By the way, thinking of shoulder problems, what is the latest on Claussen.  Rotoworld has nothing on him passed June or July, he was pulled of his rehab, but it doesn't say why.

As the season comes to an end, how do you feel about Krivksy.  I made a diary entry about this at the begining of the season.  This year has been rough.  Although Hamilton, Burton, and Keppinger are feathers in his hat, Ko9, Moeller, Moeller, Brenden Harris, bullpen personal, Votto, Germano, have all been black eyes.  He is so sczophrenic.  I am going to give him a C.  He is a step up from O'Brien, and Bowden.  He isn't cluless.  He seems to have a lot of problems his old boss has.  He is in love with "vetern pressence" over the young talent in the organization.  I still have faith in Krivksy, and I say give him atleast another year.  He seems to be good at contract negotions, see Arroyo and Harang.  They will be around at a good price for a while, and to make contracts liek that is a most for small market GM's.

PS Boobs=incomplete

Meaning that you feel that we still need more time to judge him.

I keep reading, especially from Hal McCoy, that Bailey was brought up too early.  I have to disagree.  He had some really awful starts, but he had some good ones too.  The way he dominated the minor's, I feel the Red's had no choice.  He has to learn the pitch at the big leagues.  His command and breaking pitches aren't quite there yet, but they will be.  I just assume, unless he is absolutly rocked next spring, give him a spot in the rotation.  

2008 Rotation

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto
Belisle

The bottom 3 are not locks, I know Belisls has had a tough year, but really who do the Red's have that is a better option?  This is a rotation that could be very good in the next few years.

With the inhouse talent the Red's have, I think it would be a poor choice to sign a free agent pitcher, who will have a large contract, and average results.  It will cost a king's ransom to trade for one.  Let's just see what happens with Bailey in Cueto.

A Jake Peavy level pitcher.  I am just trying to figure out next season.  I am not sure if i would trade Bruce at all, but I mean the Red's do not have a shortage of outfielders.  But trading Bruce for anything would probably be short sited. I guess I would say I would be intrigued, but trading Bruce for anyone short of next years Cy Young winner could apear foolish in a few years.