This is not an Insider article, so I will post the whole thing here...

This is Keith Law's take on the Soriano trade.

"Rafael Soriano was one of the two best relievers on the market, with former teammate Mike Gonzalez, and the Rays are fortunate to get someone of his caliber on a one-year deal for the price of a cheap middle reliever.

The Rays' pen, a strength of the 2008 pennant-winning club, was a major weakness in 2009, and Soriano helps them in almost any role as someone who throws strikes and misses bats; last year, nobody in Tampa's pen came close to Soriano's ability to do both of those things, and his arrival allows Joe Maddon to shift J.P. Howell to work in the seventh and eighth innings depending on matchups.

You will still hear whispers about Soriano being less than tough, especially when he blows his first save, but he didn't show any propensity to melt down in 2009 in a full year of closing. The trade is worth a couple of wins on paper -- maybe more if Soriano's used in a highly-leveraged way -- and with Soriano likely to make somewhere between $7 million and $7.5 million in arbitration, he should be a good value.

Jesse Chavez -- Atlanta's addition -- is a three-pitch reliever with an above-average fastball and a solid-average changeup; he has shown plus control throughout his pro career, making him a good bet to be an average middle guy, although he doesn't miss enough bats to be a late-game reliever. I'm a little surprised this was the best offer Atlanta could get for Soriano, but they also seemed desperate to move him immediately rather than wait out the winter and run the risk that they couldn't trade him.

The lesson here for clubs wavering on offering arbitration to a Type A free agent is that having the player accept against your wishes is not the end of the world. If the player is good and his market was hurt by the Type A designation, you should still be able to dump the salary, at the least, if not actually trade him for something of value. Atlanta's decision to offer might not look like the right one because Soriano accepted, but it was the right call, and I'd rather take the risk of having a good player accept than throw away the chance for two high draft picks the way Dodgers did by not offering a deal to Randy Wolf. "

Jerry Crasnick just reported that Soriano accepted the Braves' offer of $6.5M - $8M.

"jcrasnick: Soriano apparently felt more comfortable with a sure thing from Atlanta -- one year and $6.5 to $8 million -- than going out on the market

Monday December 7, 2009 11:38 jcrasnick
11:40 jcrasnick: The Braves weren't planning for this, and now they can try to trade Soriano. But any deal before June 15 would require his consent. "

This is not good!

Yesterday, I posted a link that said the Braves were interested in Takashi Saito. Today, ESPN has a couple more entries that may or may not concern the Braves and their offseason plans:

1. Justin Duchscherer - The article doesn't mention the Braves, but I started thinking about him as one of the low-risk, high impact type of player that could fill the back end of the bullpen. He is coming off of two major surgeries, so a bullpen seems like the logical landing spot for him this year.

2. Mark DeRosa - For Mark, I will just copy/paste what the article says: "at least two teams have expressed concerns about DeRosa's range at third base and that one NL East team has approached him about playing the outfield regularly. " Could that "one NL East team" be us???

"Former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito has drawn interest from eight major league teams, according to a report on NPB Tracker.

The website that tracks Japanese players lists the White Sox, Cubs, Braves and Mets as among the suitors for Saito, who finished last season in Boston. The Red Sox declined a $6 million option on Saito for 2010.

Saito could be a fit with the White Sox if GM Kenny Williams is indeed intent on moving closer Bobby Jenks, who is eligible for arbitration. "

From ESPN.com's "Rumors" section.

I just hope that the other 7 teams reportedly interested in him don't drive the price way up, and if they do, I hope we have the intelligence to just back down. No closer is worth wasting millions on, IMO.

Considering that this is from Buster Olney, I would almost bet that 0% of this is true.

"Some rival executives are convinced that Atlanta's Javier Vazquez, who was arguably one of the four best pitchers in the National League this past season, will be traded in the weeks ahead. Vazquez will make $11.5 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency, so the Braves might be compelled to move him now to take advantage of his value. Atlanta needs a right-handed-hitting outfielder, and the other possible trade pieces on the Braves' pitching staff -- Derek Lowe (who is owed $45 million over the next three seasons) and Kenshin Kawakami (owed $13.3 million over the next two seasons) -- do not generate much enthusiasm among some rival talent evaluators.

Vazquez went 15-10 in 2009 with a 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts and just 44 walks in 219.1 innings after posting ERAs of 4.84, 3.67 and 4.74 in his previous three seasons with the White Sox. The Braves have other pitchers around which to build their staff -- Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and the newly signed Tim Hudson -- and probably could get a decent young hitter in return for Vazquez."

The fact that he says that the Braves should trade Vaz for a OF bat tells me that he really doesn't have a grip on this situation. Why would Atlanta trade for a piece when we have that Heyward kid? Anyone the Braves bring in would be nothing more than a seat-warmer for a year at the extreme most.

I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta locked Vaz up for another couple of years. That would be the smartest move they could make. Hopefully the FO wont bank on 2 youngsters to be the anchors of this rotation just yet...

Well, Hardy is no longer with the Brew Crew, so this should pretty much eliminate all trade talk of Yunel...although there hasn't been any such talk for some time now...

"The Minnesota Twins completed a trade Friday to acquire shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.

Hardy's presence means Orlando Cabrera will not be back in Minnesota, and that the Brewers are indeed moving forward with Alcides Escobar as their shortstop.

It's also a sign that Denard Span is going to play center for the Twins in 2010, unless they acquire one this winter. Here's where Mike Cameron's name is a fit, but Minnesota's payroll just went up with the addition of Hardy, who could make as much as $7 million via arbitration.

Gomez gives the Brewers a plus defender in center field, but his offensive struggles are a concern."

"By CapitolAvenueClub | October 7, 2009

Mark Bradley comments on his own blog the following:

I read the Cox quote [stating the organization just can't give up on Kelly Johnson], too. And I said to myself, "Why can’t they give up on Kelly?"
I’ve composed a letter of response to this comment.

Dear Mark Bradley,

Why can’t the Braves give up on Kelly Johnson? Because the organization isn’t stupid enough to give up on a player just because of frustration. Let me be clear, Kelly Johnson is a rather frustrating player. Though his range is above-average, he frequently makes errors–usually at inopportune and highly visible times. That’s frustrating. He’s also been an inexplicably streaky player. I don’t believe previous streaky-ness indicates future streaky-ness, I think it’s something that happens because of entropy, randomness, and luck, but it’s still frustrating.

Like I said though, his defensive deficiencies stem from his errors, not his range. With a little more work and experience, there’s no reason to think he’s incapable of eliminating (or minimizing) them from his game and becoming an above-average defensive 2B. And even if he doesn’t, he’s a close-to-average defender at 2B right now. His +/- totals at 2B:

2007 … 0
2008 … -1
2009 … -2

And then there’s his bat. The bat has shown potential to be, and has been in 2007 and 2008, an above-average one. In 2007 he hit .276/.375/.457/.831 (117 OPS+) with 16 HR, 10 3B, and 26 2B. He scored more runs (91) than he drove in (68). He walked 79(!) times and struck out 117. In 2008, he hit .287/.349/.446/.795 (108 OPS+) with 12 HR, 6 3B, and 39 2B. Again, he scored more runs (86) than he drove in (69). He walked 52 times and struck out 113.

This season, he’s hit .224/.303/.389/.692 (82 OPS+) with 8 HR, 3 3B, and 20 2B. The percent of the time he hits a home run is 2.3%. It was 2.0% in 2008 and 2.6% in 2007. His ability to hit home runs hasn’t changed at all. The percent of the time he records an extra-base hit in general is 9.0%. It was 9.3% in 2008 and 8.6% in 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has actually improved from 2008 (2.17) to 1.69. His contact rate has improved (19.2% K% in 2007, 18.4% K% in 2008, 15.6% K% in 2009) and his walk rate is up from 2008 (8.5% BB%) to 9.3% BB%. He’s not popping it up on the infield as much as he did in 2007 and 2008 (12%), generating an infield fly ball only 11% of the time. So what’s changed that’s leading to his terrible results in 2009?

Well, there are two things at play here. First of all, he’s not hit as many line drives in 2009 as he has in his career. Line Drives turn into hits a lot more frequently than ground balls or fly balls do. His career average LD% is 17%. That figure is down to 14%. Now, the ability to hit a line drive is a skill, but a 3% difference over 346 PA’s isn’t statistically significant. That is–the best explanation for this change is that nothing has fundamentally changed and random fluctuations are responsible for the difference in results. Still, this is enough to count for merely two or three points on his batting average. And, likewise, his OBP and SLG%. Considering the fact that his fundamental skills are largely unchanged, something else is obviously going on.

The answer is luck. Kelly Johnson has gotten extremely unlucky this season and it has nothing to do with his input. For instance, his BABIP–something he can’t control–is down from his career mark of .311 to .247. If a few more ground balls find holes (something that happens because of luck, not a hitter’s skill), a few more fly balls drop (same explanation) and a few more line-drives aren’t right at somebody, his results look a whole lot rosier. The difference between a .224 hitter and a .300 hitter is roughly one hit every three games. It’s very likely that Kelly Johnson has simply fallen on some hard luck.

In fact, when you plug in Kelly’s stats to this Component Batting Average Calculator (303 AB’s, 82% Contact Rate, 6.1% HR/FB, 52% FB%, and .247 BABIP), it predicts a .222 batting average–just two points off of his actual 2009 batting average–and 8 HR, as he’s hit. Adjust Kelly’s .247 BABIP to his career average of .311 and you’ve got yourself at a .273 hitter. The difference is just luck. .273/.352/.438/.790 is Kelly’s luck-adjusted line, and that’s assuming that all of the hits on balls in play he was "robbed of" turn out to be singles. That .790 OPS is 48 points higher than the league average 2B has produced in 2009. His .795 OPS was 51 points higher than the league average for 2B in 2008 and his .831 OPS was 72 points higher than the league average for 2B in 2007. No matter what which way you slice it, Kelly’s bat is going to play above-average at 2B with any luck at all.

So you’ve got a left-handed hitting middle infielder who plays average defense, runs the bases well, posts excellent walk rates, shows some pop, and posts fairly good contact rates. And you have a hard time wondering why professional talent evaluators don’t want to give up on him? I think they’d be crazy to get rid of Kelly Johnson.

I don’t buy the "he’s not worth the money" argument either. Kelly Johnson’s 0.6 WAR this season make him only slightly less valuable than his contract ~$285,000 (something that has never happened in his MLB career, he’s always been significantly more valuable than his contract) and he’s been worth, on average over the last 4 years, $7.65 million. Kelly Johnson is an immensely valuable commodity, no matter how much your emotions of frustration deceive you.

One final point. After Kelly Johnson hit .214/.288/.359 in 263 PA’s through July 2 (he was placed on the DL shortly thereafter), he hit .261/.358/.493/.851 in 83 PA’s from July 23 (his return from the DL) to the end of the season. Things are trending upwards and Kelly has turned it around. Wherever he plays next year, he’s going to be a very good 2B. I just hope the Braves don’t look past the talent and into the frustration and end up non-tendering him. He’s too valuable and there’s too much talent and potential to let get away. Especially if his on-field production is going to net you more than you’re paying him. Which it, in all likelihood, will.

Sincerely,

-A Mark Bradley and Kelly Johnson Fan"

Wow, PWHjort...You have so eloquently stated what I have been screaming and arguing for months now. You have posted this better than I ever could have, and I thank you for it!

Let the KJ hating resume!