SB Nation User Blog: jvflail

The WENDYs (Wizards END of Year awards)

jvflail — Sat, 03 May 2008 08:17:09 -0000

Just thought I'd throw these out there. I'm still too emotional after yesterday's loss to post something intelligent.

Most Valuable Player: This is tough. I go w/ Caron, because his best was better than Antawn's best. When Caron rolled this year, we won. When Jamison rolled, we won sometimes. As the Cleveland series indicated, we were at our most dangerous when Caron was at his.

Least Valuable Player: Gilbert Arenas. Has there ever been such a soap opera-ish knee injury? It's pretty clear now that "the face of the franchise" hurt much more than he helped this year. Hopefully, he can get healthy and come back for a strong 08/09, but his 07/08 campaign was all anticipation and no impact.

Most Improved: I'm giving this one to Haywood over Blatche and Stevenson. Brendan really impressed me several times this year, including during the Cleveland series. His free throws, his back-to-the-basket game, and his pass-receiving were all much improved over last year. Blatche improved too, but he was much more of a roller-coaster ride. Stevenson had some great moments and he hit more 3s this year than all his other years combined, but his maturity and shot selection still need serious work.

The OOBA (Out-Of-the Blue Award): Roger Mason started this year as the 12th guy on a 12-man team. He ended the year being our 1st guard off the bench. He was downright deadly on some nights and he caught the attention of the league (Lebron James in particular). Wiz fans should have really enjoyed Roger this year, 'cause he'll be wearing a new uniform, and sporting a $20-$30 million contract, somewhere else next year.

The Rookie of the Year: Since we only had 3, there is little suspense in this one, but its winner, Nick Young, is now put on notice. He had some nice rookie moments, but he needs to improve his defense so he can challenge Stevenson for the starting 2-guard spot. If he does (and I'm not sure how, by the way), our team will become instantly more explosive, athletic, and aggressive. Right now, however, his defensive liability outweighs his offensive potential.

The Welcome Back Award: Etan Thomas. At the beginning of the year, I said I could not endure another season with the Wiz's two-headed debacle of a center combo. Now, I don't see how we can succeed without it. The Cleveland series made it painfully obvious how much we need size and strength on the floor at all times. It's too much to ask of Haywood to be physical all 48 minutes and to stay out of foul trouble. Hopefully, this year has made them both realize their role (Haywood the starter and Thomas the back-up), and they can work together next year to give us good stability at the 5-spot.

The Funny but Useless Award: Pecherov. I know it was just his first year and that the team loves him, but Olesky needs to figure out what he's doing. Has any 7-footer ever spent more time behind the 3-point line? He may be able to make some outside shots, but he too often looked too soft and too afraid of contact. If he doesn't improve, he may go down the Jiri Welsch highway to ignominy.

May Madness?

jvflail — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 17:23:10 -0000

The notebook article in today's Post talked about the call for NBA playoff realignment and The Don's typical curt, condescending response to change. In a nutshell, the NBA commish said that other leagues don't realign when .500 clubs make the playoffs in their sports, so the NBA won't either. Don't you hate it when arrogant people make good points? For the record, I agree with him. Even if it isn't fair this year (see below), you can't tinker with your playoff format every year to fit the standings.

Whether you want realignment or not, all this talk got me thinking about what would happen if the NBA set up an NCAA tournament-style playoff format where the teams with the top 16 winning percentages squared off. If these playoffs started tomorrow, this would be the first round...

1-seed Boston v. 16-seed Philly: I gotta say, this match-up is much more interesting than the Boston/Atlanta blowout fest that will probably occur.
2-seed Detroit v. 15-seed Toronto: Interestingly, this may happen anyway.
3-seed New Orleans v. 14-seed Portland: When I wrote this up, it just felt like justice to include Portland and exclude Atlanta and New Jersey.
4-seed San Antonio v. 13-seed Washington: When I saw this, I immediately cast my vote AGAINST realignment.
5-seed Houston v. 12-seed Cleveland: T-MAC v. Lebron...talk about a death match.
6-seed Lakers v. 11-seed Denver: Cool match-up and right now, Denver would be on the outside looking in on the Western Conf. playoffs. This is a crime considering the junk at the bottom of the East.
7-seed Phoenix v. 10-seed Golden State: A dream 1st rounder for every NBA fan.
8-seed Orlando v. 9-seed Dallas: A very even, competitive series if Dirk could come back for it.

Now, I have no idea how the logistics would play out. Would these first rounds be 3, 5, or seven games? What's the point of winning your division if you're not assured home court in round 1 (even though it works out that all division winners get home court in this scenario)? I'm sure there are a million more questions, but one thing stands out to me: for this year especially, a re-aligned playoff format would be much more fair and competitive than the current system. Maybe every other year would be different, but the disparity between the bottom of the East and bottom of the West this year makes the playoffs brutally lopsided in favor of Boston and Detroit. As it stands now, they won't have to play a team whose winning % is over .550 until they play eachother in the conf. finals. In the West, not team has a winning % under .610.

One other point really stands out to me: Thank whatever God you pray to the Wiz don't have to play San Antonio in the first round.

Ridiculously Premature Playoff Speculation

jvflail — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 22:05:41 -0000

Come April, we may not be able to speculate at all. So here's my rundown of the Wiz's chances if the playoffs started tomorrow.

Before I get to the playoff match-ups, I'll offer some universal truths that should be as correct in April as they are today:

A 7 or 8 seed equals failure. Even if we still end up 2nd in the Southeast, a 7 or 8 seed would pit us against Boston or Detroit in Round 1. Making the playoffs is no fun when you get swept in Round 1 and your average loss is by 20 points.
Gilbert's knee impacts everything except truth #1. If he comes back healthy and we still only manage a 7 or 8 seed, we'll still get swept by Boston or Detroit. The point differential may be closer, but we'll still get mushed.
Jamison and Butler have to be healthy. Even if Gilbert comes back, I don't know how far this team can go w/out these two guys running at full speed.

Okay, now we move on to the wild prognostications:

A. If the playoffs ended tomorrow, Wiz fans should be pretty happy w/ the seeding. We'd have home court in the first round against NJ. From what I've seen so far this year, we could take em (with or without Arenas). Plus, the Nets don't have any roster help waiting to come give them a boost (barring a trade obviously). Kristic, I believe, is out for the year. Granted, I'd still be scared of a Jason Kidd-led team in a 7-game series, but we match up really well against the Nets. Advancing to Round 2 is about as good as the Wiz can do this year. I'd watch and root every second of every game against Bos or Det, but this year's Eastern Conference Finals appear to be a foregone conclusion.

B. Orlando doesn't scare anybody. They got off to a hot start, but are coming back to earth rapidly. Plus, the player who they turn to the most (Dwight Howard) is a turnover and missed free-throw machine. In addition, Howard is their only tough player. Lewis and Hedo are soft as tissue paper. In today's playoff bracket, they'd play Cleveland. If I were a betting man, I'd place a large wager on the Cavs in that match-up.

C. Toronto scares me. Everyone on that roster can shoot. If TJ Ford comes back healthy (not sure about his status), they'll have a lethal 1-2 punch at PG with Calderon. If Bargnani improves at all over the last 3/5s of the season, the Raptors are a strong bet to make it out of Round 1 (provided that they are not a 7 or 8 seed).

D. I hope the Hawks make the playoffs. It makes me sick to my stomach when I see a Hawks home game and there are 11 people in the stands. This franchise needs some excitement, even if it is a 1st round drubbing at the hands of the Celtics.

E. The inevitable Celtics/Pistons Eastern Conference Finals will be a world war. As it stands right now, could you schedule two more evenly matched juggernauts?

F. The answer to the above question is "Yes." The Spurs versus the Suns over in the West would also be a world war. If the conference finals in both the East and the West play out this way, look for NBA TV ratings to skyrocket.

G. Any match-up resultant from those conference finals will be yet another world war. After last year's disaster w/ the overmatched Cavs, look for the NBA to take a long, deserved sip of refreshment in this year's playoffs.

H. Lastly, take a look at the bottom of the current playoff standings. Do any of those non-playoff teams scare you? Indy, Philly, Chi, Mil, Char, NY, and Mia (a hilarious double meaning in the contraction by the way) are all struggling to put 2-game win streaks together, much less make the playoffs. I know it's too early. I know anything could happen. But I personally think the 8 teams currently in the playoffs will be the same teams to be there in April. Maybe not the same order, but most likely the same teams...and that includes the Wiz!

Roger Mason's Time to Shine

jvflail — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 20:27:51 -0000

I had intended this post to ask what free agent pgs are available, but then I found the Washington Post blurb written the other day about the roster being "set" despite Gilbert's injury. Since Abe's stingy salary cap stance won't let us go fish for a free agent, it appears now that our back-up PG is none other than Roger Mason Jr.

3 months is a long time to go with Antonio "the human spill" Daniels manning the point. I love the guy, but he falls harder than a parachute-less sky diver every time he drives the lane. If he gets hurt (knock on wood), or even tired, Roger's the only guy with a PG next to his name in the Wizard's media guide.

Now, we've all watched him for 2 years at least, and I think it's pretty safe to call his pg skills suspect. He does a lot of spot-up shooting, I can count on one hand the number of times he's driven the lane, and his defense won't make anyone forget Gary Payton.

This leads me to think about the decision the braintrust made in training camp to go with Roger over Donnell Taylor. Roger's shot is undoubtedly better, but I liked Donnell's handle, athleticism, and defense much better. At the time the decision was made, I didn't think it was a big deal seeming how it was the last spot on the roster. Now, we're an AD sprained ankle away from the Roger Mason show and that makes me nervous.

So, now that it's relevant, does anyone agree that we should have kept Donnell? Were there $$ implications I'm unaware of? Could the Wiz have brought in anyone, during training camp or at any other time, who might have helped more?

The Panic Button

jvflail — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 21:51:03 -0000

The poll on the main page surprised me. I thought more people would be panicking. Maybe I've had too much coffee today. Maybe my knees are knocking a bit too easily. And maybe, just maybe, I shouldn't be panicking after just 3 games. But listen to me Wiz fans: the writing's on the wall and the words aren't pretty. This 07-08 team is in a bad way from the get-go, and there's no cavalry riding to the rescue.

Here are my 4 reasons why this season's gonna tank:

Gilbert's knee isn't holding up. He's had it drained twice in the past 3 weeks, and he's still saying it's stiff. Does anyone remember his first year here when he tore an abdominal muscle, tried to come back too early, and ended up missing half the season? Even when he did play, he was a shell of his healthy self. I think we're seeing history repeat itself. Gil's gonna try and push through and end up REALLY hurting his knee. Without a healthy Gilbert, this team is Caron Butler and a bunch of schucksters.
The whole continuity theme of this past offseason obviously didn't pan out. If it had worked, we wouldn't be 0-3. The 3 teams we've lost to all had major shake-ups recently (Indiana w/ the Golden State trade, Boston acquiring their big 3, and Orlando signing Rashard Lewis), and all 3 have shot out of the gate.
This weak team somehow managed to get weaker. Ever since EJ started coaching us, our problem has been rebounding and defense. Even that one glorious ear when L. Hughes led the league in steals, we still played pathetic D because our big guys weren't very big. Things have done nothing but deteriorate since then. Big whup that Brendan's having a career 3-game stretch. Nobody else is doing anything, and for every block and rebound Brendan gets, there are 5 other trips down the floor when the opposing team scores easily.
The best case ceiling for this team keeps getting lower. 3 years ago, we beat the short-handed Bulls to make the 2nd round. 2 years ago, we gave Cleveland all they could handle before the refs handed the series to Cleveland in round 1. Last year, Cleveland swatted us like an annoying gnat, but we had the excuse that our 2 best players were hurt. Now look at us: Going back to April 1 of last year, we're 3 - 18 (including playoffs). Say the optimists turn out to be right and the Wiz turn it around to make the playoffs this year. Is there any fear in the eyes of Cleveland, Boston, or Detroit at the prospect of playing us in round 1? Say, thanks to the Southeast's incompetence, the Wiz muster enough wins to win the division. I still don't see us being higher than a 4 seed, and even then we probably wouldn't have home court against the 5 seed (someone from the mix of Orlando, New Jersey, and Chicago is my guess). Should our organization's best case scenario be to eek out a division title in the NBA's JV division and whimper from the playoffs in round 1? I'd rather play for added ping-pong balls in the Derrick Rose sweepstakes.

In conclusion, let me just say that I hope I'm wrong. Putting these panic statements in writing so early in the year is not the smartest thing to do. But we've all been fans of this franchise for a long time. These past 3 years have been mediocre by NBA standards, but a thrill for us. I'm just worried that those will be looked back upon as the glory years.