TBP stands for Team Building Preface or the P could stand for prelude or prologue if you prefer. Basically, I'm in the process of writing a bunch of fanposts about how I think teams win in this league and how I think they should be built as a result. The first couple posts will be about run defense and overall building theory as well as statistics and their significance, kind of a moneyball type thing. I'm planning posts on free agency, positional importance and the draft as well. It's basically how I plan on focusing all my offseason football thought and time. It's also an attempt to channel some frustration into something more positive than just going around this blog and disagreeing with people on specific subjects that never actually allow me to put my bigger picture ideas out there to back up those arguments. I just thought I'd throw all that out there because I think this Wannstedt rant that I wrote up but never published a couple of weeks ago is in the general direction of where my team building posts are going to go and that it'd be a good way to kick things off.

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I'll start with the Jets loss.  To me, the most discouraging part of the loss is that I think the Bills just don't match up well with the Jets and I don't see how we beat them next time.  Here's why:

While Gailey certainly didn't have his best coaching effort, I thought the biggest problem on offense was easily that nobody could get open.  When Stevie Johnson is having the most success getting seperation and he's being covered by one of the best players in the league, I'm not sure how you create a scheme that actually moves the ball.

I also think people were a little too easy on the defense.  They deserve credit for hanging in there and doing a good job on run D, but Plax, Holmes and Keller had their way with the Bills secondary and you know that Buffalo is going to struggle to pressure any non-Redskins QB.  I know the refs didn't help, but Jets skill players were running open far too often and Sanchez had more than enough time to find them.  I'm not sure how that changes before we play them again.

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The prevailing opinion on this blog seems to be that our defense was much worse than the offense.  That Ryan Fitzpatrick was solid and the offense played pretty well, but that defense is what prevented Buffalo from having a more respectable season.  But the reality is that Buffalo's offense, even when Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting, was just as bad as the defense.  Everytime I see somebody talk about how defense is such a huge need that it's a bigger need than QB, I have a Zoolander moment.

In the 13 games in which Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB, the Bills averaged 18.3 points per game.  Compared to what teams did over the course of the entire season, that would have been the 26th best offensive production in the league.

In Fitz's 13 games, the defense gave up 24.8 points per game.  That would have been 25th in the NFL.

For a point of comparison, the average amount of points scored per game, per team was 22.1.  The median teams scored 22.3 ppg and gave up 21.65.  The Bills' offense was just as far away from being productive as the defense was.  The Bills did play better defenses than offenses last year, but not by enough to really change the numbers.  Fitz played defenses that gave up 20.4 ppg (so, we averaged 2.1 fewer points per game than other teams did against our competition).  Offenses that we played against scored 22.6 points per game (The Bills gave up 2.2 more ppg than our competition scored against other teams).  The offense, under Ryan Fitzpatrick was not good.  It was actually pretty awful.  The wait and see crowd on Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 23 TD abberation needs to know this.

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This is a random thoughts type of fanpost with all the random thoughts, in order, in the headline.  Here's a couple quick shots to start:

A team hasn't traded into the top five for a position player since the Jets moved up to number four for Dewayne Robertson in 2003.  We've also only seen two trades for position players in the entire top 10 since with NE picking up a 3rd to drop down from 7 to 10 and the Lions got a 2nd rounder from Cleveland when they swapped the 6th and 7th picks to take Kellen Winslow and Roy Williams.  This is something that everybody needs to know when reading extravagant trade down scenarios involving multiple deals and big drops.

Green Bay is a good example of why Buffalo probably won't draft a NT.  They're a team that gave up 4.7 yards per carry this season (Buffalo gave up 4.8).  in 2009, the Packers started the more traditional Ryan Pickett at NT and rookie Raji at DE.  When it became apparent that Raji was struggling to play 5 tech and was much better suited for one gap, they moved him to the nose and Pickett out to DE.  A move out to DE probably isn't in the future for Kyle Williams.  I'm not sure why so many people talk about that possibility.

Casey Matthews has been getting a lot of mention around here, but I'm not exactly sure why.  He's not particularly big or stout.  If Buffalo is looking to address ILB in the middle rounds, BC's Mark Herzlich and Mississippi St's KJ Wright are much, much better fits.  Those two are also why I'm not too high on taking Martez Wilson in the 2nd round.  Not that Wilson would be a bad pick, but I think there are some excellent options, including Kelvin Sheppard in the 3rd round.

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No thank you on 3-4 DE first overall

Buffalo can only consider a DE as plan C or D.  I'm talking specifically about drafting a player to be a five technique in this defense and not about taking a player who played DE in college.  For this 3-4 defense, the position simply isn't impactful enough to draft first overall.  Drafting a five technique isn't a way to jump start this pass rush.  Richard Seymour is arguably the best 3-4 DE over the last decade who fits the mold that teams are looking for.  In New England, he averaged a big 5.5 sacks per 16 games.  The biggest impact pass rushers who currently play the position are guys like Justin Smith and Shaun Ellis.  Is that really the pass rusher that is worth taking over a QB?  There are currently 26 defensive lineman who have 3 or more sacks this year.  Three of them play in a 3-4 (Ngata, Ellis and Cullen Jenkins).  The Bills need to find lineman who can control blockers and don't need big time playmakers at those positions.

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I've got to get a few things off my chest before I get into more detailed arguments of why I think the Buffalo Bills should have traded Marshawn Lynch, and why I think they'll move him next off-season.

Fred Jackson is not 30. People need to stop calling him a 30-year-old running back. A handful of months ago, Fred Jackson was 28. He'll still be 30 when Lynch's contract expires. Jackson is one year older than backs that nobody would consider old, like Ronnie Brown and Michael Turner. Two of the top ten runners last season were practically in their mid-30s (Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones). Jackson is 29, will be 29 for the entire 2010 season, and is really unlikely to hit the 30-year-old wall that speed backs or players who have spent their whole career as the feature back tend to hit.

I don't hate Marshawn Lynch. The thought process behind this article is, I hope, entirely rational. There's no vendetta here. There's no emotion in this conclusion. That Lynch has been arrested twice or that I believe he doesn't really get it off the field are small pieces of why I think he's got more value as a couple of mid-to-late-round picks then he does as a Bill. Please don't respond to this post by asking me why I don't like Marshawn Lynch, because I don't really care whether he's a saint or a moron off the field one tenth as much as I care about what he does on the field.

I don't want to cut Lynch. My goal here isn't to convince people that the Bills are better off without Lynch. I simply think that the smart play at this point is to take some picks, if you can get them, and not only continue to build for the future, but build with players who want to be in Buffalo and are definitely here long term.

The first thing I'll attempt to establish is that Jackson is the better running back. I've been shocked to see how many people think that Lynch is the best traditional running back on the roster. People who think Lynch is better suited to handle a traditional feature back role might be surprised to see that the numbers don't back that belief up.

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I'm not sure if people realize why the Bills will trade Lynch.  I don't think this problem is as simple as calling him up and smoothing things over.  According to USA Today, Marshawn Lynch made $632,080 last season.  He's set to make 885 K this season, which I understand seems like a lot, but how much money did Marshawn lose last year via incentives not reached?  How much will he lose this year and next year if Jackson stays ahead of him on the depth chart?  I believe that Buffalo has three options.

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This is a list of who I hope the Buffalo Bills consider. The first thing I look for in a 3-4 ILB is the ability to take on blockers. With three defensive linemen instead of four, there are more blockers to give LBs trouble. It's not that LBs need to be able to consistently beat blockers and make plays, but 3-4 ILBs need to hold their ground and stay on their feet. Length and the ability to stack and shed can be the difference between a good and great player. Speed is nice, but since most of their run defending is done in traffic, instincts and change of direction are more important. Where athleticism is key is in the vastly underrated ability to drop into coverage and defend against the pass. It's becoming a passing league, and LBs need to cover ground, read QBs and close quickly in the open field. Onto the list:

1. Rolando McClain, Alabama - A no-brainer for the top spot. He's huge, he's athletic and he's very productive. He's really the total package in terms of instincts, toughness, strength/power and tackling technique. A very high ceiling and a very high floor make him a Top 10 prospect despite playing a position that isn't typicaly sought after in the first round and despite fitting in a 3-4 better than a 4-3. One thing that hasn't been talked about is that Daniel Jeremiah, the former Browns and Ravens scout, has said that McClain takes the occasional play off and doesn't always hustle when he thinks he's out of the play. Jeremiah specifically mentions this play (McClain is No. 25 and is the huge LB that lines up pre-snap across from the left side of the OL).

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Instead of doing a rising/falling article and re-hashing the debate about how important the NFL Combine is, let's assume that the Buffalo Bills have their board perfectly set up, and the rest of us are just playing catch-up. Here are a few players who should be on the radar of Bills fans after the combine drills and measurements.

By the way, if you're interested, SB Nation has released its first mock draft with commentary from this very blog.

Clifton Geathers, DE, South Carolina. Geathers isn't a familiar name because he was a surprise early entry into the draft. The type of talent that could have worked his way into first-round consideration next year, Geathers declared early despite being considered a mid-round pick. Geathers needs to be on the draft radar of Bills fans because he's a perfect fit in the 3-4; he stands 6'7" with absurd 37.75-inch arms and huge hands. To put that in perspective, only four other defensive lineman had arms that measured in over 35 inches, and the second-longest, Al Woods of LSU, had 36-inch arms. Think about the advantage that those long arms give Geathers, as he can grab hold of a blocker and really use his arm strength while a guard with 32 or 33 inch arms will struggle to reach and get a hold of Geathers' jersey. Clifton wasn't unproductive, either, with 41 tackles - 8.5 of which were behind the LOS - and 3.5 sacks. His draft status is something of a mystery to me, so I'll say that anywhere between the second and fifth is possible.

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McIntosh, Garmon, Ball, Raymer, Page, Bogle, Parker and Van Buren. That was the San Diego Chargers' 2003 offensive line. They ended the season with a major dissapointment of a young quarterback (Drew Brees), and a stud WR they had just signed in free agency (David Boston) managed to be an equally monumental disappointment. Their offensive line was in shambles, but the Chargers had a running back excel despite having awful starters along the OL; those awful starters then got hurt, and were replaced by other awful starters. Sound familiar?

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We got 32 people together to do a mock draft with somebody making all the picks for their favorite team.  I've taken it to the next level and turned it into a mock offseason.

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If anybody else just feels kind of speechless about the Gailey news, here's some other offseason stuff to talk about.  First on Gailey, I am completely surprised by this even though nothing should be surprising anymore.  I think Gailey is a good coach and I'm not mad that Buffalo hired him, but how Nix, Ralph, Brandon or anybody who might have had some input on this thought that Gailey was the best move they could make, I have no clue.

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I've gotta start with Russ Brandon because I don't understand why anybody has a problem with his promotion or role with the Bills.  His new job is pretty typical for an NFL team.  As an example:

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Here are the things to keep an eye on this sunday for those who want to follow the Bills draft spot all day instead of just waiting until next monday and checking it out after the dust settles.

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Bills fans should be cheering for these things:

The Oakland Raiders - They'd probably make a stupid pick, but Oakland is a potential obstacle to a QB or OT in the first round.

Brady Quinn - As bad as the Bills are, the Browns aren't catching them in the standings.  Some more Brady Quinn TD passes puts the Bills that much closer to being able to select the guy who succeeded him at Notre Dame.

The Jets .... to lose - I hate those guys and I think it's funny that they could wind up with another high pick.  They aren't a threat to go after a QB and probably won't take an OT either.  And I like that they might find themselves in cap trouble soon.  I'd love to watch them collapse their way into another big rookie salary.

The Redskins and Seahawks - Another couple teams tied with Buffalo who might be looking QB or OT.

The Chargers and Cowboys to keep on winning - Those teams can keep their mediocre coaches and let Buffalo find a good one.

A new collective bargaining agreement - It's not so much that a capless league is one that Ralph Wilson and Buffalo can't compete in.  I'm more worried about the potential free agent pool and the lack of roster turnover that could follow.  No cap = fewer changes to this roster.

The Buffalo Bills! - I know it hurts where we could pick in the draft, but let's go Bills!

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It can be tough to judge arm strength while watching/scouting QBs.  The trick is to see how much air gets under the ball.  It's yet another example of science being our friend.  The harder a QB throws the ball, the straighter of a line it can travel on.  And remember, arm strength isn't about how hard a player is capable of throwing, it's about how hard a player is comfortable throwing and how much they can put on passes without losing touch and accuracy.  So it's ok when a QB lofts one in there over a LB or on a fly route, but if there's a good amount of arc on 10-15 yard outs and comebacks, he doesn't have a strong arm.

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A couple thoughts on the Saints:  Their offense was really, really, really good last year too.  They scored 1.5 points per game more than any team in the league.  They still went 2-6 on the road and those wins were in Detroit and Kansas City.  I know they destroyed Philly, but their offense only averaged 23.75 points per game on the road last year and that included a 42 point drubbing of Detroit (so they actually scored 21 points per game on the road against teams other than Detroit).  Brees threw for 5,000 yards, so I'm not sure how much better that offense is really going to get. 

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In a kaisertown first, I might actually be posting a short fanpost .... and I just refered to myself in the third person.  I've had a couple posts in which I essentially argue against myself on whether or not Copeland Bryan is any good.  I still don't have an answer, but the fact that Bryan is already 26 years old and is now in his 4th NFL season (if you count PS time) had me looking at the ages of other Bills.  I feel like I was a fairly pessimistic poster during the offseason, but now that the tone of the blog is starting to head south, the optimist in me feels obligated to balance things out with an upper of a post.  Looking for players who could surprise this year, I think ideal candidates are players with very little experience in the league, but are older in life experince. Younger veterans are also primed for a breakout.  Here are some breakout candidates based on age:

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The first thing that needs to be discussed is how terrible Langston Walker was.  He was awful.  I think both of Trent's sacks were on him and for every pass play that he didn't screw up, there was one he did.  He gave up a little early on a handful of plays, got beat by speed rushers, inside moves, bull rushes, a stunt and anything the D decided to throw his way.  I don't think I can describe how bad he was without actually putting the tape up and making people rewatch each play.  I'm hoping Ron will do a play by play OL review like he usually does.  I actually thought the OL as a whole was pretty solid, but Walker was just dreadful.

So I did a little film study on the Bills' pass rush hoping I could track QB pressures.  I won't be able to tally them up over the course of a season and I'm not ambitious enough to attempt to grade players, but I'll do a little play by play of Cutler's pass attempts.  He threw the ball 10 times.

Pass one - No real pressure, but the front four as a group gave Cutler a small pocket to work with and Cutler settled for a short completion to Hester.  McGee was covering.

Pass two - Both DEs got great pressure ..... but it was a screen pass.

Pass three - At first I thought this was a blown assignment.  Schobel lined up way outside the TE, blew by the OL unblocked and an RB went low on him.  Cutler had to get a throw out and it was the short 3rd down attempt to Hester where Hester never really made a play on the ball and McKelvin broke it up.

Pass four - Zero pressure.  Completion to Hester, McKelvin was covering, but there wasn't much he could do.

pass five - Kelsay lines up outside the TE, isn't blocked by an offensive lineman, an RB goes low and Cutler gets the ball out quick.  This was the play where Cutler overthrew a perfectly covered Hester down the sideline.  McGee covered and Whitner would have been there in time too had the ball not been (intentionally?) overthrown.

pass six - No pressure, but the DL shrunk the pocket in every direction and Cutler forced that ugly throw to Hester which lead to the gorgeous INT by McKelvin.

pass seven - Poor pass rush, Corner drops the INT.

pass eight - Good bull rush by Schobel as the DL doesn't pose a real threat to sack the QB, but doesn't give Cutler any space to work with.  Cutler had a great completion to Desmond Clark after Harris passed him off in zone coverage to a nowhere to be found Ko Simpson.

pass nine - George Wilson essentially lines up as a defensive lineman over the TE.  Chris Ellis is lined up way outside the TE and again, nobody on the OL blocks the player coming from that spot.  Buggs blitzes up the middle and is easily picked up.  Chicago was in a two back set and both went low on Ellis whose presence still provided enough pressure to force a quick out to Earl Bennet.

pass ten - Buffalo was going to blitz heavily, but Chicago called a last second timeout.  Somebody from the right defensive end position (looked like number 95, but didn't look like Kyle Williams, I'm guessing C. Bryan) came in unblocked as an RB predictably went low, but Bryan/mystery defender still provided enough pressure for Cutler to force a throw to the back of the end zone.  This was the play where Harris got a hand on it, Florence was in place to maybe break up the pass and Ko Simpson laughibly came in two or three seconds after the ball would have arrived and tackled his own teammate.

Overall, Buffalo provided very little pass rush when Chicago chose to block them with their offensive line.  I thought Schobel looked quick and healthy, but wasn't much of a factor.  It was interesting watching Buffalo line up a DE outside of the TE and Chicago consistently give that rusher a free pass by the OT.

Other thoughts:

Buffalo only blitzed once and would have blitzed twice if it weren't for the time out.  I think Buffalo blitzed too often and too predictably last year.  Kawika Mitchell (who now has an awesome mustache by the way) is a player that needs to be used as a blitzer.  It's probably his best asset as a player (aside from the fact that he could play a Mexican drug dealer in a movie now).  But Buffalo rushed five far too often last year.  I'd like to see them blitz 20% of the time (down from 32%) or less this year, but rush 6 or 7 way more often than they have under DJ.

That Edwards strike to Evans down the sideline was a thing of beauty.  Rookie safety Al Afalava was starting at SS and was creeping up into the box.  Trent read that Kevin Payne was going to back in a cover 1 playcall, stared down Derek Schouman forcing Payne to leave Evans one on one with Nathan Vasher.  Vasher's a good CB, but that isn't a battle many CBs are going to win.  It was easily the most encouraging play of the night.  Great decision, poise and throw by Edwards.

Trent only made two throws that weren't great passes.  He had a short throw to Fine that was low and while he caught it, Fine didn't have a chance to do anything afterwards.  There was also one play where Urlacher (who I thought had a great game) showed blitz and backed into coverage.  It was the slant to Evans and Urlacher read Trent, broke on the route and came pretty close to getting a hand on the ball or even picking it off.  It was a no harm, no foul play and it wasn't a bad decision to throw by Trent, altough it was a bit of a close call.  When those are the only not great plays your QB made, then he had a great, great night.  Trent was forced to check down a lot, but I didn't think any were due to him hesitating or something like that.  Walker and the Bears pass rushers forced the ball out of Trent's hands a few times.

That bootleg was an awesome playcall.  Any chance we go from being really worried about Schonert a year ago, to a great no huddle offense, good playcalling and an offensive coordinator that we start viewing as a prefect hire by DJ?  Maybe it's time we gave the coaching a break, or at least we gave the coordinators a break.

Some quick hitters:

Spencer Johnson had nice night.

Ko Simpson didn't have a nice night and is firmly on the bubble.  After tonight, he may be on the outside looking in, I thought George Wilson was a better defender and if that's the case then Simpson is a goner.

I thought those 2nd team LBs looked really quick.  They read and reacted to run plays very quickly, especially Buggs.  They make our starting LBs look really, really slow.  Ellison is probably still our third best LB, but we can't get him off the field quick enough.

Fred Jackson doesn't have much of a burst.  I can see why he wasn't drafted and took a couple training camps to catch on.  It's incredible how elusive and strong of a runner he is despite such average athletic tools.  It makes me like him even more.

Dominic Rhodes is a reliable, versatile player.  He's also not better than Lynch or Jackson at pretty much anything.  With McIntyre not being a complete disaster tonight, will Rhodes be active once Lynch comes back?

Buffalo had 6 different RBs with 5+ carries.  None of them had a run longer than McIntyre's 7 yard adventure and none of them averaged more than Lynch's 3.2 yards per attempt.  It's time to officially put the run game on the list of things to be concerned about.

One positive thing about the run game is that after being shut down by a Haynesworth-less Titans D last week, Tampa Bay got shut down by that D too.  Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham combined for 10 yards on 8 carries.  So maybe Buffalo's run struggles are just the result of great run defenses.  Chicago gave up the third fewest ypc in the league last year at 3.4. ypc.

On the flip side, what I thought was a poor TB run defense had a better performance than we did against Johnson and White.  Chris Johnson had just 7 yards on 7 carries and White had 6 yards on 3 carries.  I've now got my eye on those two for the rest of the preseason for fantasy purposes.

Buffalo scored 30 offensive touchdowns last year.  It was a strong 24th best in the league.  Rian Lindell hit 78.9% of his field goals and Buffalo finished an even stronger 28th in that category.  We also had a 1.25 to 1 ratio of attempted field goals to offensive touchdowns.  That was the 27th best in the league.  And my personal favorite, our Bills turned the ball over 29 times.  The team also had 9 turnovers on downs and their 38 total turnovers tied Houston for the 3rd most.  That Dick Jauron style offense never really happened last year and only four teams turned the ball over more times than Buffalo did.  Now, this may look like I'm doing my usual talk people down from their unrealistic expectations routine, but considering that Buffalo had a decent year despite all that (insert soft schedule comments here) actually has me thinking that a little growth from Trent, a new center giving this team a fighting chance on 3rd and 1 and that TO character really could push this offense into the top 10-15 in the league.

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I'll start with something I found by accident.  I'm not sure if people have ever seen this, but pro-football reference has a list of the Bills' starters by year and also gives their record each season.  It goes way back and looks accurate.  It's worth a quick glance for amusement and stashing in your favorites for later reference.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/lineups.htm

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I did a live shadow draft where I made the picks for Buffalo when they were (or were going to be) on the clock.  Now that my mock offseason has gotten to the point where the roster has taken shape, I wanted to compare my offseason vs. the Bills'.  But first, I want to throw some quick thoughts out about the draft.

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Buffalo's DEs had 8 sacks last season.  That tied with Cincinatti for the second fewest of the 22 teams that ran a 4-3 (Cleveland was the only 3-4 team with 8 or fewer sacks from their OLBs and they tied Buffalo with 8).  So I have to ask, why doesn't everyone have Buffalo addressing DE with one of their first couple picks in all the mock drafts that keep getting posted? (note: I love that people post their mocks, I'm going to put one at the bottom of this post)  Everyone would have Buffalo picking a RB if Marshawn and Jackson only averaged 3.7 ypc for the last couple of seasons.  Who wouldn't have us taking a QB if our team had the 3rd worst QB rating of any team?  If Buffalo gave up 5 yards per carry last year, wouldn't we all want a new DT or MLB?  Why is it different for the DEs?  I don't get it.

Aaron Schobel is not the savior of the pass rush.  In 2007, Our DEs only had 11.5 sacks.  So for two seasons in a row, with Schobel playing 21 of the 32 games, Buffalo's DEs have consistently been one of the worst units in the league.  Schobel is is soon to be 32 years old.  He barely weighs 240 pounds and comes to camp a little slimmer every season in an attempt to maintain his average athleticism.  And most importantly, Schobel has 7.5 sacks in his those last 21 games.

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