SB Nation User Blog: kaisertown

special teams tackles

kaisertown — Wed, 28 May 2008 05:12:45 -0000

So I recently noticed that NFL.com and buffalobills.com have two different sets of stats up for tackles. The player bios on buffalobills.com have different numbers all together. The differences are special teams related, but I am having trouble trying to determine the exact number of special teams tackles that all of the Bills had last season. It's currently 1:30 AM and I can't sleep. I just cracked my 3rd beer in hopes of getting a little drowsy and I have been staring at similiar sets of numbers for awhile now.

I first noticed the difference today when Brian put up his state of the ILB thing. He noted Costanzo's special teams ability, which I didn't think he had and went to check out his stats, hopeful that I would find out how many special teams tackles he has. Turns out Brian was right, Costanzo had 6 or 7 ST tackles. Here's where it got tricky for me. buffalobills.com stats page doesn't award Costanzo with a single tackle. I then noticed that Stamer only has 1 recorded tackle and Wendling doesn't have any. Clearly buffalobills.com stats page only includes tackles made while playing D.

My next move was to click back on my internet explorer and check NFL.com's stats for the Bills. Costanzo was awarded 6 tackles, but he was only listed at 6'1. I remembered the Bills website lists him at 6'2 so I went back to check and ended up reading his bio where it says that he had 7 ST tackles this season. So Brian was in fact, very right. Costanzo had 6 or 7 tackles in only 3 games last season. And to go further off subject for a moment, I was curious as to how tall Costanzo really is (not that it matters) and he weighed and measured in at 224 pounds and a touch under 6 feet tall at his Lafayette pro day. I guess its pretty obvious now why he didn't get drafted. I'm sure he does weigh the 235 pounds that he is listed at (it's been 3 years since his pro day), but I doubt he has grown 2 inches.

After some more looking around, the player bios at buffalobills.com award Ryan Neill with 14 ST tackles, Jenkins with 8 and Wendling with an absurd 24 ST tackles. NFL.com only has Neill with 10 tackles and Wendling with 10 tackles, but it gives Jenkins 9 tackles. Are these numbers just completely off? Am I wasting valuable sleep time reading into typos and made up stats?

SI/CNN has a very detailed stats page so I went over there to see how many times the Bills punted and kicked off in an attempt to determine how many ST tackles the team as a whole had.

Moorman mishit a few punts, but looking at his overall numbers I no longer think he had a down year. He punted the ball 81 times, but only 3 of those resulted in a touchback. The opposing teams only managed to return 37 of Moorman's 81 punts. Lindell had 65 kickoffs. 56 were returned, one of which for a TD. That leaves 55 ST tackles on KOs and 37 on punts. The Bills should have about 92 special teams tackles.

I'm immediately dismissing the bios on bills.com from now on. To assume that Wendling had 24 ST tackles doesn't make any sense. Are they possibly giving him a tackle every time the opposition fair catches a punt and he is the closest Bills player? After some more looking over of the bios, it says that Ryan Neill had 3 tackles on defense. That can't be right and on thier stats page it only gives Neill 1 tackle. The bios must be puffery and useless info and nothing more.

I'm assuming that you can tell how many special teams tackles the Bills players had by finding the difference between the tackles bills.com and nfl.com have awarded. Here are the differences for everyone who had more than a 1 tackle seperation (I counted an assist as a half a tackle so that the total comes out near 92):

John Wendling - 10
Ryan Neill - 8.5
Justin Jenkins - 8 (7 solo and 2 assists)
Josh Stamer - 8 (7 solo and 2 assists)
Mario Haggan - 6.5
Anthony Hargrove - 6.5
Blake Costanzo - 6
Rian Lindell - 3.5
Sam Aiken - 3.5
Bryan Scott - 3.5
Leon Joe - 3.5
Coy Wire - 3
Jim Leonhard - 3
Dwayne Wright - 3
Ryan Neufeld - 2.5

Butler, Fox, Youboty and Thomas all had 2 and there were a bunch of players with 1 tackle as the only recorded difference between buffalobills.com and nfl.com. Ignoring the players who only had one ST tackle the total number of ST tackles I found was 87. Considering that offensive players could have recorded a tackle on a lost fumble or INT, the tackle numbers were exactly what I was hoping for and I am confident they are VERY close to being correct.

So after all that, it seems like a good idea to discuss my outlook on the 2008 Bills special teams coverage units (I think that was my whole point of writing this, but I'm not sure anymore). Buffalo will return both of their punt gunners assuming that Wendling and Jenkins make the team. Personally I think that is a near lock, so I believe our punt coverage could even be a little better than it was last year. That is pretty impressive considering the Bills allowed a league best 5.3 yards per punt return last season. I think punt gunning is MUCH more specialized than kick coverage, so I am not at all concerned about the loss of Stamer, Haggan and Hargrove. Considering how well Costanzo did last season along with the moderate success of players like Leon Joe, I think the Bills can find replacements. Bryan Scott has the size/speed combo you look for in a ST ace. Linebackers are tailer made for special teams, so Ace Bowen, Keith Ellison, John DiGiorgio and any other LBs that make the team (Costanzo, Jon Banks, Marcus Buggs) are all possibilities. New offensive additions Darian Barnes, Mike Viti and Derek Fine are all candidates. Chris Ellis should be able to fill Hargrove's role and Will James, Ko Simpson, George Wilson and Youboty are a little undersized for kick coverage, but could all fill a role as well. I'm pretty confident that Bobby April can mold that long list of potentials into a solid kick coverage unit.

A look into the run defenses of Buffalo's 2008 opponents

kaisertown — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:03:27 -0000

[Note by Brian Galliford, 05/10/08 9:48 AM EDT ] Curious to know more about the Buffalo Bills' 2008 opponents? Our very own kaisertown has done a wonderful job of breaking down the run defense aspects of every one of Buffalo's 2008 opponents. Take it away, kaiser. [End Note]

The media typically uses yards allowed per game to rank defenses. But those numbers are obviously flawed because they take into account a team’s ability to keep its defense off the field. Using yards per game will also mean a team’s run defense numbers will be altered by a team’s pass defense. I like yards per attempt. I don’t think it gives you an exact number for how well a defense defended the run or pass, but it is the most accurate statistic out there.

Week 1: Seattle – 3.9 yards per attempt, 2007 season
Week 2: Jacksonville – 4.1
Week 3: Oakland – 4.8
Week 4: St. Louis – 4.1
Week 5: Arizona – 3.9
Week 7: San Diego – 4.1
Week 8: Miami – 4.5
Week 9: NY Jets – 4.2
Week 10: New England – 4.4
Week 11: Cleveland – 4.5
Week 12: Kansas City – 4.3
Week 13: San Francisco – 3.8
Week 14: Miami – 4.5
Week 15: NY Jets – 4.2
Week 16: Denver – 4.6
Week 17: New England – 4.4

That rounds up to about 4.27 yards allowed per rush for our opponents, based on 2007 numbers. The league average was about 4.0 or 4.1 yards. It may not seem like much, but those two tenths of a yard per carry are pretty substantial.

For an in-depth look at each of Buffalo's '08 opponents and their off-season moves, check out the info after the jump.

Miami – lost Zach Tomas, added Jason Ferguson, Akin Ayodele
- Miami was a disaster last season. They were bad against the run just like they were bad at everything else. Miami was particularly bad against quicker backs last season. It’s a new coaching staff and scheme so it isn’t all that important what happened last season, but it doesn’t look like they have the personnel in place to turns things around anytime soon. Miami gave up the most rushing yards in the league last season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again this year.

New York Jets – lost Dewayne Robertson and Jonathan Vilma. Added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and drafted Vernon Gholston
- The Jets had an average run defense. They gave up the fourth most yards in the league via the ground, but did so by allowing the second most attempts in the league. They didn’t give up any huge games and not many backs truly “struggled” against them. Jenkins could be an upgrade over Robertson (who I think is a little underrated) or Jenkins could get hurt and the Jets' D could fall apart. The Jets used true linebackers like Victor Hobson and Eric Barton on the outside a lot last season. This year they will use hybrid rushers, Gholston and Pace, which could negatively affect their run D. I thought they had a bad D-Line last year, but was surprised to see that Kenyon Coleman had 83 tackles last season. Shaun Ellis is overrated and can be taken advantage of. Expect the Jets to be average again, but it is worth pointing out that Marshawn Lynch had two mediocre games vs. the Jets (23 carries for 79 yards and 21 carries for 80 yards).

New England – drafted Jerod Mayo
- Vince Wilfork gets a lot of credit for being a great NT, but the Pats weren’t all that great against the run. They completely shut down Thomas Jones twice (probably by cheating) but gave up big days to the Pittsburgh duo of Parker and Davenport, McGahee, Addai and the Dallas duo of Jones and Barber. New England got an early lead in most games they were in and teams abandoned the run. With the drafting of Mayo and a potentially healthy year from Seymour I expect NE to return to being an above average run D. Belichick is great at scheming for the pass and I doubt he will respect Edwards enough to allow Marshawn to be anything more than average against them.

Seattle – drafted Red Bryant, signed Larry Tripplett
- After checking all the box scores from Seattle’s games last year, it was tough not to notice that they were a totally different team vs. the run at home and on the road. That problem was highlighted by Ryan Grant's 201 yard performance in the playoffs. Buffalo should run pretty well against them. Especially if Tripplett makes that team and actually sees the field.

Jacksonville – lost Stroud, signed Jimmy Kennedy, drafted Derrick Harvey
- Don’t let the 4.1 yards allowed number fool you, Jacksonville has a dominant run defense. For whatever reason the Jags allowed Tennessee to run for 283 yards on 49 carries in the first game if the season. That 5.755 yards per carry really skewed the overall numbers. Then again, the run defense struggled some down the stretch. After Stroud hurt his ankle the Jags allowed Willie Parker to run for 100 yards on just 14 carries, Dominic Rhodes ran for 115 yards on 27 carries and Ron Dayne and Darius Walker combined for a staggering 174 yards on 31 carries in the season finale. I still expect Buffalo to struggle pretty bad in Jacksonville. In fact, I think this is one of the few games that Buffalo can’t win.

Oakland – gave Tommy Kelly stupid money, Warren Sapp retired
- 4.8 yards allowed per carry is pathetic. The thing that makes it even more sad, is that they improved by a good amount AFTER Tommy Kelly got hurt. They played an easy schedule and got run over by big names like Kolby Smith, Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne. The Bills should be able to win this game solely by running the ball better than Oakland can. The Raiders shut down terrible Cedric Benson, otherwise this team would have allowed over 5 yards per carry on the season.

St. Louis – lost Brandon Chillar, drafted Chris Long
- In what made me smile, I noticed that STL completely shut down Willis McGahee. He only had 61 yards on 25 carries. This run defense improved down the stretch, but they played like the rest of the team did, wildly inconsistent. Aging RBs like Warrick Dunn, Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis all helped the Rams' run defense appear better than it is. Their D-Line doesn’t have great size and their LBs are awful. Will Witherspoon holds this defense together. The Bills should have solid success running the ball.

Arizona – lost Calvin Pace, made a ton of minor moves
- Arizona is starting to look like a Ken Whisenhunt team. They made a number of moves, but I think their run defense will stay about the same. Arizona allowed 3.9 yards per carry last season. They were a very solid and pretty consistent run defense that only gave up a couple of big days and shut down some of the league's better runners. This is a tough game for the Bills and a tough matchup for Lynch and the O-Line.

San Diego – signed Derek Smith (who I think is washed up)
- SD gave up 4.1 yards per rush last season. If Adrian Peterson didn’t run for 296 yards on 30 carries, that total would be much lower. If their D-Line is still healthy, I would expect SD to be a very tough matchup. The Bills will pound Marshawn because the Chargers have a turnover happy defense, but the Bills will have a tough day running the ball. This is another game that I can’t envision Buffalo winning.

Cleveland – traded for Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers
- The Browns simply didn’t have the personnel to run the 3-4 effectively last season. They bottled up slower backs like Shaun Alexander and Brian Leonard, but really struggled against everyone else. They were effective in the snow against Buffalo, but I am sure everyone here can remember how predictable Buffalo’s offense was and how many Browns were in the box every play. Cleveland has mediocre LBs and I think Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers will be too busy trying to get to the QB to even notice that he no longer has the ball. I don’t expect much improvement from the 4.5 ypc they gave up last year.

Kansas City – drafted Glenn Dorsey, signed Demorrio Williams, traded Jared Allen
- I’m sure they are real excited about Glenn Dorsey down in Kansas, but he has a big task ahead of him. Ahman Green, Justin Fargas, Cedric Benson, Selvin Young (twice) and TJ Duckett all had great success against an awful KC defense that gave up 4.5 ypc. Selvin Young ran for 265 yards in the two games against KC. Glenn Dorsey is bound to help, but this is still a team that will probably start Ron Edwards at DT and Turk McBride at DE. Donnie Edwards is turning 35 and Napolean Harris hasn’t lost a step, he has lost two. Demorrio Williams and Derrick Johnson are both good in pursuit, but struggle at the point of attack. Carl Peterson is one of the worst GMs in the league, this team is a mess.

San Francisco – Bryant Young retired, drafted Kentwan Balmer and signed Justin Smith
- I think San Fran’s D is on the verge of emerging as one of the better units in the league. Not a dominant unit, but one that is well above average. Patrick Willis is incredible. This is a team that kept Adrian Peterson to 3 yards on 14 carries. They didn’t dominate any other teams, but they held everyone else pretty much in check other than Pittsburgh when Willie Parker, Ben Roethlisberger and Najeh Davenport combined for 196 yards on 30 carries. The 3.8 ypc they gave up last season wasn’t a fluke and I expect much of the same this season.

Denver – Added Boss Bailey and Dewayne Robertson
- It feels like Denver has been trying to rebuild their D-line for years and they are still awful. In his first game as a pro last year, Marshawn ran for 90 yards on just 19 carries. Addai and Kenton Keith ran for 216 yards on 29 carries. Tomlinson and Turner ran for 214 yards on 31 carries. Ron Dayne and Darius Walker ran for 133 yards on 24 carries. Even Mike Martz’s stable of backs (Kevin Jones, TJ Duckett and Aveion Cason) ran for 127 yards on 22 carries. Denver’s only good weeks came when everyone on KC was hurt and Priest Holmes (20 carries for 65 yards) and Kolby Smith (13 carries for 12 yards) each started a game and the game against Chicago where Benson got hurt early in the game and the "other" Adrian Peterson ran for 45 yards on 17 carries. DJ Williams is a great player and Dewayne Robertson was a nice addition, but their supporting cast is pretty bad. ECC grad Marcus Thomas and the aging Alvin McKinney are set to battle for a starting spot at DT. This team still hasn’t recovered from the decision to grab all the former Browns D-Lineman. They have 8 DEs on the roster right now. Didn’t Mike Shanahan’s mom ever tell him that quantity doesn’t equal quality? I mean guys like Ebenezer Ekuban and Elvis Dumervil sound like they belong in a Harry Potter book, not on a D-Line. I am no longer concerned about Buffalo’s ability to go into Denver and win a game this year.

Mike Viti

kaisertown — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:40:20 -0000

The Bills may not have added a fullback during the draft, but they did add an interesting one on sunday evening.

NFL.com profile of Mike Viti

I will give some of the highlights:

5'9 242 pounds with a 470 pound bench press.

He was one of 4 team captains. Considering the fact he went to West Point, that is VERY impressive.

He tore ligaments in his knee during his senior year of high school, but finished the season anyways. His injuries scared off recruiters. He went on to suffer several injuries at Army as well, but never missed a game.

"Plays with fiery emotion and is the team's hardest worker in the training room."

"Compares To: MIKE KARNEY-New Orleans...While West Virginia's Owen Schmitt is regarded as the draft's top fullback, Viti can rival the Mountaineer as the best blocker in this draft. Viti has brute strength that made one scout describe his physique as "having muscles coming out of his muscles."

I am definately excited the Bills signed Viti and I cannot wait until training camp to see how he looks. Considering his only competition at FB is Darian Barnes and Jonathon Evans, Viti has an outside shot to make the team. He has a good chance to wind up on the practice squad.

Do we know much else about any of the other players the Bills have signed so far?

Is McKelvin a good fit for the Bills? + a few other things

kaisertown — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 18:02:31 -0000

I will start this diary with a random prediction. Colt Brennan will be the San Francisco 49ers 4th round selection and will be one of the most talked about picks in the entire draft. SF loves to take players they coached at the senior bowl. Mike Martz would love to prove how brilliant he is (or thinks he is) and takes a player who fits his offense prety well and will generate a lot of attention. QB is a need for SF, but due to the salary and status of Alex Smith, it is a position they will likely address in the middle rounds.

Now on to McKelvin. I have just assumed that McKelvin, being a somewhat consensus top 10 prospect would be a great pick for the Bills. But I have been doing some research on him and am beginning to think otherwise.

I am not advocating the Bills pass on McKelvin if he is available. I do think that if the Bills decide to go in a different direction they wouldn't be crazy.

McKelvin has questionable instincts and poor ball skills. 4 career interceptions is pretty bad. He didn't exactly get the Champ Bailey treatment either as 70 passes were thrown to the receiver he was covering his senior year. He displayed great hands at the combine, but misplayed many interceptable passes this season. His average instincts were often covered up by his elite athleticism, but will that still work at the next level?

McKelvin is a sound tackler who displays solid technique. He has had about 60 tackles in each of the last two seasons. My problem is that he isn't aggressive moving forward and shys away from contact. He is very blockable and made most of his tackles in pass coverage. Scouts Inc. has this to say about McKelvin:
"Is a finesse cover corner. Does not like to support the run and will avoid contact if at all possible."

While McKelvin shows the skillset to be an elite kick returner he was anything but one in college. The draft analysts tend to lump kick and punt return ability into one category, but they are very different. McKelvin has Roscoe Parrish type ability as a punt returner, unfortunately he also has Roscoe Parrish type ability as a kick returner. McKelvin averaged 23.7 yards per KR for his career and only 23.2 yards as a senior. He has one career TD in 99 kick returns. Considering the talent in the Sun Belt conference, that is a pretty mediocre. Forget elite when talking about McKelvin as a KR, the question is can he even be average?

Elite athletic ability like McKelvin posseses is tough to pass over on draft day. For this reason I would still be OK with the Bills picking McKelvin. He is incredibly fast and fluid and if he can learn to read WRs and QBs better and if he can be coached to be more aggressive in run support, then he can be a true superstar. He could be the next Terrance Newman or Marcus Trufant, OR he could be the next Tye Hill or maybe even the next Philip Buchanon. I just hope the Bills make the right call, whatever that decision may be.

SUBJECT CHANGE

I am going to use McKelvin to transition into an entirely different subject. Sorry if this multiple things in one diary is a bad idea. I just wanted to get this all out at once.

I think it is crazy to think that teams don't shuffle their draft boards after the combine and pro days. Complete Insanity. McKelvin is a player who has climbed an entire round since the end of the season. A lot of that climb had to do with Senior Bowl practices, but some of it is also related to workout numbers.

Dwayne Jarrett slid last year after poor workout numbers.
Daymeion Hughes fell at least a round after running slower than expected.
Justin Durant jumped an entire round after the combine.
Chris Henry is another example of a player who had a metioric rise after the combine. I strongly doubt Tennessee drafted Henry 50th overall based on his stellar senior campaign that included 165 carries for 581 yards (3.52 per carry)

2006 saw much of the same with Tye Hill and Manny Lawson improving thier draft stock at the combine. Jimmy Williams is a good example of player who stock was hurt by a poor 40 time. This might be a bad example because everyone knows that Al Davis loves speed, but Thomas Howard had an disappointing senior year at UTEP. He then ran a 4.44 forty at 240 pounds and was picked 38th overall. He earned a job as a starter and had 84 tackles as a rookie.

The only reason that workout numbers don't have a bigger effect on draft boards is that scouts are good at predicting them. If a fast WR runs fast then that doesn't help him. If a slow LB runs slow than it won't hurt his draft stock. When a player runs more than a tenth of a second faster or slower than the scouts predict, it most definately has a direct impact on where that player will be drafted.

The tape doesn't lie is a popular cliche, but I think there isn't a lot of truth to it. Speed is all relative on game film. A between the tackles power type runner can look really fast when an offensive line opens up some running lanes and the opposition has slow LBs. Players who take long or short steps can appear to be running faster or slower than they really are.

Why Brad Butler can't play center

kaisertown — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 20:06:26 -0000

He is too tall. Brad Butler measured in at 6 feet and 7 1/8 inches at the combine. His listed height is not an exageration.

Picture a center, bent over before a snap. Now imagine how much time he has to give the QB the ball, stand up and drive his body forward before the DT gets his hands on him. It happens so quickly that every inch is crucial to establishing leverage and getting the proper hand placement to control the DT.

Here is a list of every center who started 5 or more games last season and their height:

Eugene Amano - 6'3
Matt Birk - 6'4
Jeff Faine - 6'3
Mike Flynn - 6'3
Melvin Fowler - 6'3
Hank Fraley - 6'2
Eric Ghiaciuc - 6'4
Andre Gurode - 6'4
Rex Hadnot - 6'2
Nick Hardwick - 6'4
Eric Heitmann - 6'3
Jamal Jackson - 6'4
Al Johnson - 6'5
Ryan Kalil - 6'2
Dan Koppen - 6'2
Olin Kruetz - 6'2
Sean Mahan - 6'3
Nick Mangold - 6'4
Kevin Mawae - 6'4
Todd Mclure - 6'1
Andy McCullom - 6'4
Brad Meester - 6'3
Tom Nalen - 6'3
Jeremy Newberry - 6'5
Dennis Norman - 6'5
Shaun O'Hara - 6'3
Casey Rabach - 6'4
Dominic Raiola - 6'1
Brett Romberg - 6'2
Samson Satele - 6'3
Jeff Saturday - 6'2
Chris Spencer - 6'3
John Wade - 6'5
Scott Wells - 6'2
Casey Weigman - 6'2
Damian Woody - 6'3

To summarize there are:
6'5 - 4 players
6'4 - 9 players
6'3 - 12 players
6'2 - 9 players
6'1 - 2 players

There is some obvious symmetry to the list and it is apparent what the ideal height range for a center is.

The Trade Value of J.P. Losman

kaisertown — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 14:52:43 -0000

[editor's note, by Brian Galliford] Promoted from the diaries, kaisertown takes an excellent look at where Buffalo Bills QB J.P. Losman could end up should the Bills trade him. Great work, kaisertown - and remember, keep these diaries coming, folks. I love letting y'all do the front page dirty work. End Update

First, let's examine the draft day trades involving established players being moved for draft picks in the 2007 draft:
OAK sent Randy Moss to NE for pick 110 (fourth round)
SEA sent Darrell Jackson to SF for pick 124 (fourth)
DET sent Mike Williams and Josh McCown to OAK for pick 105 (fourth)
KC sent Dante Hall and pick 84 to STL for pick 82 and pick 148 (fifth)

The most intriguing (and relevant) trade was Josh McCown and Mike Williams to Oakland for the sixth pick in the fourth round. To see if the Bills could get similar value we need to compare McCown to Losman.
YDS comp% TD/INT QBrating
Losman (07) - 1204 - 63.4 - 4/6 - 76.9
Losman (06) - 3051 - 62.5 - 19/14 - 84.9
Mccown (07) - 1151 - 58.4 - 10/11 - 69.4
Mccown (05) - 1836 - 60.4 - 9/11 - 74.9
-McCown did not play in 2006-

Mike Williams was certainly not a throw in and the Raiders valued him highly when making the trade, but still this looks very favorable for the Bills. McCown flashed potential in Arizona; however, he was very inconsistent. The Raiders were clearly trading for a stopgap QB considering that McCown didn't take a snap in 06 and their recent selection of JaMarcus Russell. Losman has the potential to be more than just a stopgap if someone believes in the success he had in 2006. This is the biggest positive as I see it, but there are several negatives as well.

My biggest concern is that teams won't see Losman as a big enough upgrade over what they already have or what is available on the free agent market. How much better is Losman than FA quarterbacks like Rex Grossman, Cleo Lemon or Billy Volek? Is there enough of a gap in talent to give up a third round pick? There might be if someone sees Losman as a starter, but if teams are looking to find a quarterback to compete with a rookie or provide insurance for a young starter a FA might make more sense. Wouldn't a team rather have Rex Grossman as their starter the first six games of the season and then have him as the backup than give up a good pick? Another concern of mine is that there are a limited number of teams in the market for a quarterback like Losman.

The QB Market
The Patriots, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams (that's 18 teams) all have established starters. Things can change before the draft, but right now none of these teams would consider trading a third round pick for Losman. The Jets have a young QB (Kellen Clemens) and a veteran backup (Chad Pennington) already. The Redskins have a starter in Jason Campbell who shows some promise. Detroit has Jon Kitna and drafted a QB in the second round last year. So add the Jets, Redskins and Lions to the list - that's 21 teams set at quarterback.

The teams still left are: Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, KC, Oakland, Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and San Fran.

Tennessee obviously has Vince Young so they would be looking to aquire a backup/insurance. I think Minnesota wants Tarvaris Jackson to be the starter so they are in the same boat. Oakland might be looking for a stopgap for Russell and Tampa Bay has a good but aging starter (Jeff Garcia) and might be looking to groom a replacement, but I can't see any of these teams trading a valuable pick for Losman when the available FA quarterbacks could fill the same role. That leaves six potential teams to trade with. I will go over them one at a time.

Miami - In the division, so a trade would be tough. Has a young QB in John Beck, but with new management it is tough to say what the Dolphins will be looking for at QB.
Kansas City - Has a young QB in Brodie Croyle that they claim is the future, but he could use some competition and the Chiefs could use a backup plan in case he fails.
Baltimore - New coaching staff could go in a number of different directions. McNair seems done. Boller is under contract for one more season and Troy Smith has some pedigree and showed some promise at the end of the season.
Chicago - Still has Brian Griese and Kyle Orton under contract, but are desperate for a QB. Rumors are they will make a run at McNabb; maybe Losman makes sense as a backup plan.
Atlanta - All of the quarterbacks on their roster are bad. They need to upgrade big time by bringing in a rookie and probably a vet to compete.
San Francisco - An interesting situation with a potential number one overall bust and an old, useless Trent Dilfer. San Fran could go a number of directions.

I simply can't see the Bills trading within the division. I think KC will give Croyle a year as the starter to prove himself. I suspect Baltimore, Atlanta and Chicago will all draft high-profile rookie quarterbacks. This doesn't leave many options for Losman. Atlanta makes sense as I could see Losman getting a number of starts while they groom a rookie. San Fran is a sleeper option for me as well, but I just don't see any team willing to give the Bills a third round pick especially considering the teams that may have trade interest all have high picks. A fourth round pick seems more likely, but isn't a sure thing either. Personally, I would be happy trading Losman for a top 10 pick in the fourth round similar to the McCown trade.

Mike Pelfrey

kaisertown — Sat, 12 May 2007 17:34:13 -0000

Pelfrey had some early struggles again today. He did manage to get out of the first allowing only 1 earned run, but he gave up three hits and walked one. His numbers before today's start include a 6.39 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Is there any chance Mike stays in the rotation when El-Duque comes back from injury? his only competition is Jorge Sosa, but it really looks like Pelfrey could use some time in AAA even if it just to gain some confidence. The most important question is: can Mike Pelfrey really help the Mets this season? I love him long term, but he just seems not ready.