• joined Nov 05, 2010
  • last login Apr 23, 2014
  • posts 29
  • comments 4927

I'm a new author primarily focused on statistical analysis of Oregon Duck football games and statistical modeling of college football in general.

I've been an Oregon fan since my first game back in the 80s, where I saw Oregon upset a very good USC team at home. I grew up in Eugene, went to South Eugene and IHS and went to the U of O shortly afterwards.

I did graduate from UW and do root for the Huskies when they aren't playing the Ducks. But I'll always be a Duck at heart.

I'm married and father to two wonderful young duck fans.

A Fan Of...

  • NFL Chicago Bears
  • NCAAF Oregon Ducks
User Blog

Advanced Stats Preview: Alamo Bowl 2013


What teams will show up? Is it the Oregon pre-Stanford, with convincing wins over Washington and UCLA? Is it the Texas team that beat Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and is playing Mack Brown's last game with a rousing sendoff?

Advanced Stats Preview: Oregon vs. Alabama 2013


We want Bama? Well, sure. Who doesn't want Bama? There's a blueprint to beating Bama: being absurdly lucky, playing at home, and not giving Nick Saban a month to prepare. Stats love Bama's cold, dead heart, and Bama is still one of the best.

Advanced Stats Preview: Oregon vs. OSU 2013


This Civil War isn't for BCS status like last year. For Roses like 2008, 2009 or 2011. For the national title like 2010. This is a game to make a statement for no other reason than the sheer joy of doing so. The numbers say it'll be a big statement.

The Stats Aftermath: Arizona and downward spiral


When did Rome notice they were collapsing? When do you start seeing the cracks in the veneer? And what do you do about it? This is Oregon's moment to start a new era - or start the long, slow rebuilding from mediocrity.

Advanced Stats preview: Oregon at Arizona 2013


The last road game of the season brings us to a familiar place. In Tuscon we have had dreams die and Rose Bowls stay alive. And according to the stats, it'll take a Dennis Dixon level of collapse for Oregon to not escape the desert.

How FEI & S+P see Oregon's Rose Bowl chances


USC is the toughest remaining roadblock for Stanford's second consecutive Pac-12 championship. Oregon is hoping that USC pulls the upset. How likely is it? How likely would you think that Ed Orgeron could succeed where Mariota didn't?

Advanced Stats preview: Oregon vs. Utah

Utah is significantly better than its record and standard stats would show. They've done as well as anyone in the country in playing top teams. Oregon has a lot of advantages - but they'll have to play at their best to beat the Utes.

FEI and S+P preview: Oregon at Stanford 2013


This is the biggest game this year from an FEI/S+P perspective; two teams in the top 5 with national championship implications. Will Stanford show they have a blueprint? Mariota and the Ducks will likely wreck those plans.

FEI and S+P preview: Oregon vs. Florida State


In the bye week tradition we check out another hot team and see how they stack up against Oregon. Two Heisman hopefuls, offense galore, and special teams issues means points every second and one of the most fun games ever - along with a shocking end.

FEI and S+P preview: Oregon vs UCLA 2013

UCLA is great on defense, has Brett Hundley and has been tested well. Unfortunately this is the exact script Washington fell into, and just like Washington UCLA is weaker against stopping the run, has offensive line issues - and now faces DAT.

FEI and S&P Preview: Oregon vs. Washington State


What does Washington State have to do to beat Oregon? Never punt the ball under any circumstance, always onside kick and pass as much as possible.

FEI and S+P: Oregon vs Washington Huskies 2013


This may be the true game of the Pac-12 this season. The Huskies are strong everywhere, tested, and think this may be their year. Unfortunately for them they match up poorly with Oregon's strengths, particularly when Oregon runs the ball.

Panic level chartreuse


While Oregon has scored 59 points or more in two games and has only allowed 13 points, there are grumblings among the fans, pundits and the like. Are they justified? Well...kinda sorta.

How FEI + S+P see the Fiesta Bowl


The best matchup of the season comes down to whether or not you think S+P is right or FEI is right, whether special teams really matter that much and how close to a blueprint Baylor set.

How FEI and S+P see the game: Civil War


Oregon State is even better than Stanford overall - how does Oregon win the day? By our defense getting early stops and our offense getting methodical drives, and never kicking a field goal again.

The Stats Aftermath: Stanford


Did we give the game away or did we get beat? And how bad and good is Chip Kelly?

How FEI and S+P see the game: Stanford at Oregon


What's the key to beating Stanford? Simply, getting our defensive line back and Marcus Mariota being as good as he has been - and both of these things are very likely to happen.

The Stats Aftermath: Panic! at the Disco


Oregon's difficulties defending the run have been there...since Colorado? How good is Marcus Mariota?

How FEI and S+P See the Game: Oregon at Cal


Cal has vexed Oregon since Tedford became the head coach. From DeSean Jackson going crazy to beating Dennis Dixon on a last-second fumble to 'showing how to beat' Oregon in 2010, Cal has been a thorn. Will that be the case in 2012?

The Stats Aftermath for USC


Where was this elite defense that I was so proud to have on the Oregon Ducks? What on earth happened to that swarming, sacking monster that I had seen in the last 8 games? It was lost - and like anything that is loved and lost, grieving follows.

How FEI and S+P see the game: Oregon Ducks at USC


USC! Matt Barkley, Marqise Lee, Robert Woods, Silas Redd, Lane Kiffin! With Halloween looming these should be scary names. These are the names of the only Pac-10/12 team members to have beaten Oregon in 2 years. Let's look at the FEI/S+P analysis


How FEI and S+P see the game that might have been: Kansas State at Oregon (and a bit about Colorado)

Oregon's going to beat Colorado. Bad. I can get into all the ways this is clear: Oregon is 3rd in overall F/+, Colorado is 123rd (out of 124). Oregon has double their S+P value. Oregon has 4 times...


How FEI and S+P see the game: Oregon at Arizona State

Welcome back from the bye week and the new biggest test ever that Oregon has ever faced, EVER. edition. Panic, get freaked out, worry greatly about Arizona State. It's on the road, it's a huge...

How FEI and S+P See the game: bye week edition

3-0 on predicting the spread for Oregon! YAY SCIENCE! YAY LUCK! I'm fairly certain this was exactly the sort of victory and glory that Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly envisioned when doing all this...


How FEI and S+P See the game: Washington at Oregon

How FEI and S+P See the game: Washington at Oregon

How FEI and S+P See the game: Oregon 'at' Washington State

via This is the followup to last week's Oregon/Arizona analysis. Washington State was expected to have a huge resurgence under Mike Leach. WSU had good QBs with...


How FEI and S+P See the game: Arizona/Oregon

The last post I did on how FEI & S&P viewed the Rose Bowl matchup was pretty popular as well as being reasonably accurate in predictive value - so for this season I'm going to try and do the same...


Is this the worst month ever for Washington football fans?

Was thinking about the news that's broken recently this month, and I think that this might be the worst month in the history of Washington football fandom. Maybe even the worst couple of months....


2011 Rose Bowl: how FEI and S&P see the game

2011 Rose Bowl: how FEI and S&P see the game

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