SB Nation User Blog: kasas

Beyond the Boxscore: Acquire Willie Harris

kasas — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 18:16:27 -0000

Beyond the Boxscore: Acquire Willie Harris

The folks at BtB make a compelling argument to get Willie Harris out of the bargain bin. I definitely agree that we need help in the field, and UZR is pretty big on Harris.

Neyer: "I wouldn't give up on the Braves yet."

kasas — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:05:23 -0000

Neyer: "I wouldn't give up on the Braves yet."

Neyer argues that recent moves (Prado over Johnson, Diaz getting some priority over Frenchy) are plugging holes in the Braves struggling lineup.

A tad optimistic, if you ask me.

Calcaterra: The Braves are no longer America's team

kasas — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 18:31:56 -0000

Calcaterra: The Braves are no longer America's team

This is actually a commentary on a blog post over at the ol' AJC. A great read.

Bullpen Report: Looking at How We Use Relievers

kasas — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:05:43 -0000

Braves Bullpen: By the Numbers

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BB/9

206.2

(18th)

4.05

(14th)

1.50

(25th)

8.14

(4th)

4.35

(Tied- 10th)

As something of a follow up to roy's post earlier this year, I decided to take a look at the bullpen for the Braves this year. Effective usage of the bullpen can make a huge difference in a team's success. While the Braves made major moves to improve the rotation (which is now the 6th best in the majors in ERA), we never really addressed the bullpen in the offseason. To date, the bullpen has been so-so, posting a great strikeout rate but a league average ERA.

I'm going to take a look at how the Braves have been managing their bullpen using gmLI from FanGraphs. gmLI is the measure of the Leverage Index of the situation when a relief pitcher enters the game. Tom Tango, the creator of Leverage Index, describes Leverage Index as "a measure of the fire the player faces" in any given situation. Using the inning, outs, score, and number of players on base, gmLI can show us which relievers are being put into the most critical situations. Closers, for example, have an extremely high gLI; mop-up relievers will have the lowest. Overall, I was pretty impressed with our bullpen management.

Mike Gonzalez
33 IP, 2.18 ERA (3.37 xFIP), 1.24 WHIP, 11.45 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 1.6 gmLI
With 8 saves, Gonzalez has performed admirably in the closer's role this year. Coming off a 4.28 ERA last year, many feel that Gonzalez has shown major improvements. The difference has been in his batted ball profile; he's had a nearly nine percent increase in groundball rate and a corresponding decrease in line drive rate. However, I would guess that this is unsustainable. Additionally, Gonzalez (being a flyball pitcher) is benefiting from a 5.7% HR/FB rate. Gonzo was incredible unlucky last year, but very lucky this year; I would expect that his ERA will settle around the mark projected by xFIP.

Rafael Soriano
32.2 IP, 1.36 ERA (2.83 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 1.52 gmLI
While Soriano already has 6 saves, his gmLI suggests that his usage is pretty normal for a set-up man. While Bobby does have a pretty good amount of confidence in him, it seems that he's not quite challenging Gonzalez as a secondary closer. This is a shame, considering he's been better in almost every possible way. I would ideally like to see Soriano become the closer, but at least he should be seeing some more high-leverage action.

Eric O'Flaherty
25.1 IP, 3.91 ERA (4.30 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, 5.44 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, 1.16 gmLI
This is a considerable gap in confidence between spots two and three in the bullpen. Claimed off waivers last November, O'Flaherty has been a solid addition to the bullpen. O'Flaherty sports an impressive 48% ground ball rate to go along with tight control. He has, however, been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck as far as home runs go (his 3.7% rate is unsustainable), so expect his ERA to rise a bit.

Peter Moylan
26.2 IP, 4.73 ERA (3.94 xFIP), 1.58 WHIP, 8.10 K/9, 5.74 BB/9, 1.14 gmLI
Moylan has been...well, pretty bad this year. In 2007, Moylan had a 1.80 ERA in over 90 (!) innings of work. Many metrics suggest that 2007 was something of a mirage, though, as Moylan posted a .236 BABIP and a Left on Base % of over 80%. xFIP suggests his true skill level was in more of the 3.75 ERA range, which is still largely true. This year, Moylan has been on the poor end of the luck spectrum. For one, his .328 BABIP seems inflated. However, even skill wise, Moylan seems to have lost something. Even though he is striking out almost 3 more batters per nine innings, he is walking 2.64 more. Wilder and out of control, Moylan has posted a terrible 1.58 WHIP. Moylan seems to have more trouble in the more critical roles; Moylan had a gmLI of only 0.85 in 2007. Moylan will regress a bit to the mean (and is probably better than O'Flaherty), but don't expect him ever to return to his past form.

Jeff Bennett
32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA (4.58 xFIP), 1.84 WHIP, 6.06 K/9, 5.09 BB/9, 1.11 gmLI
The fact that Bennett is being used quite similarly to Moylan and O'Flaherty worries me, because he's considerably worse than both of them. Bennett's ERA is deceptively low; he's bad in almost every possible way. 4.58 may be a harsh indicator of talent, but it is much more accurate than his actual ERA.

Not included (not enough appearances this year): Blaine Boyer, Jorge Campillo, Manny Acosta, Buddy Carlyle.

AJC (Bisher): Put Chipper on the Market

kasas — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 15:08:20 -0000

AJC (Bisher): Put Chipper on the Market

Then again, this is the same Furman Bisher who wrote this.

Looking at Kris Medlen's First Start

kasas — Sun, 24 May 2009 22:06:34 -0000

First post, so go easy on me.

A lot of hype has been surrounding the call-up of Kris Medlen. For Gwinnett, Medlen was thoroughly dominant. Check out these stats:

38 IP, 1.19 ERA (1.81 FIP), 0.79 WHIP, 10.42 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 44.3 GB%

His first start against the Rockies, however, was somewhat disappointing. Medlen allowed five runs over only three innings, fanning three and walking five. Out of his 79 pitches, only 43 were strikes; that’s an Oliver Perez-worthy 54.43%. Obviously, the sample size is very small, but it does provide us some interesting data to play around with. Here is a graph of the pitches he threw:

via img195.imageshack.us

Clearly, Medlen showed three distinct pitches. He’s throwing a fastball around 87-88 mph, a changeup that is hovering around 80 (although that seems to be the least defined pitch speed-wise), and a 77 mph curve. The fastball only went for a strike only 51% of the time, which is fairly worrisome. The changeup was equally inaccurate; only 7 of 15 changeups were strikes. Medlen’s curveball had a vertical break of -4.83 (for reference, Javier Vazquez averages around -5.05) and he was actually throwing it for strikes (12 out of his 15).

Thoughts?

Acknowledgments:

FanGraphs for game box score

Minor League Splits for AAA stats

Pitch data from the Gameday database, accessed with the handy tool over at Brooks Baseball (http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php)