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kcdc1

  • joined Aug 05, 2008
  • last login Aug 25, 2014
  • posts 61
  • comments 5279
User Blog

Royals 2013 Season PPD Due to Inclement Weather

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Said Dayton Moore, "It snowed in May and now it's raining and fuckin' freezing out there. Also Miguel Cabrera. So, uh, fuck it. See y'all next year." The Royals 2013 season is scheduled to be made up in a day-night double-season in 2014. The new CBA rules will allow teams to carry 26 players for both halves of the double-season.

How do you use BR to check teams' come-from-behind wins and losses after leading at some point in...

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How do you use BR to check teams' come-from-behind wins and losses after leading at some point in the game?

I did some Googling, and this guy apparently was able to do it, but for the life of me, I can't figure out how.
FanPost
46

Luis Mendoza: Good Starting Pitcher

Luis Mendoza has a 3.58 ERA in August, which has followed a solid July performance, which in turn followed a commendable June performance. As tough as it is to admit, it's time for the stats crowd,...

FanPost
153

Shifts, UZR, DRS, and the Royals

Inspired by Escobar's crappy UZR this season as mentioned in the FanShot section by JKWard, I decided to write out one of my grievances with what I understand as how the two major advanced...

FanPost
14

Positional Adjustments at DH as compared to 1B

We don't tend to talk much about the sizes of the various positional adjustments, but in my opinion, the accepted positional adjustment of -17.5 runs for DH as compared to -12.5 runs for 1B...

FanPost
135

Dayton Moore and Resources

There's a memo going around KC, propagated in large part by Soren Petro, that Dayton Moore doesn't have a fair shot to succeed, that he is handicapped by David Glass's penurious budgets, that we...

Yuniesky Betancourt has negative WAR, plays every day anyway

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Yuni's had some big hits and a couple game winning HR's, so if you haven't checked the numbers in a while, you might think he's carrying his weight and that his continued presence in the line-up is a defensible managerial decision. He's not, and it's not. Yuni's line stands at .248/.283/.423. That's good for a .299 wOBA and an 85 wRC+, 15% below the MLB average. If he were playing great defense at C or SS, you could stomach that offensive line, but instead, he's playing statue at 2B every day. I'll give him that he has good dexterity and he looks fine turning the double play, but he's fat and slow, and he has no range in either direction. Yuni seems to give up hits on balls that should have been outs almost every game. Please Ned Yost. Fight your primal urges, and remove this package of awful defense and a .283 OBP from our line-up. We'd like to win more, and Yuni is costing this team wins.

FanPost
46

Revisiting Sal Perez

Amongst the 'math' guys in the regular RR community (and by math guys, I mean the extra nerdy guys that not only like to argue about statistics as they relate to players, but also like to argue...

The Royals prefer Yuni's defense at 2B to Gio's

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"Eighth inning: With the Royals leading 2-0, Mike Moustakas came out to play third base, and Betancourt was shifted to second. Despite the fact that Johnny Giavotella had a good day defensively, making at least three outstanding plays (by my count), the Royals feel that this alignment makes them better on the defensive side of the ball."

Wil Myers raking, still striking out too much

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Over his last 10 games, Myers has hit .343/.465/.886 with 5 home runs, 2 doubles and a triple in 35 AB's. Yes, that's an .886 slugging percentage. But he's also struck out 10 times, continuing his season-long trend of striking out in more than 20% of his plate appearances. Part of me says this isn't a problem--that he's so dangerous that pitchers aren't throwing him strikes, so he's expanding his zone to do damage. But another part wonders if he's having this much trouble making contact in AA, what will happen against savvier pitchers in AAA and the Majors? Myers is consistently hitting baseballs about as hard as baseballs can be hit, but he's also swinging and missing a lot. Do we care?

FanPost
56

Hubris, the Science of Basestealing, and the Royals

Allow me to share a story about a friend from highschool. This was a smart guy--a very strong student in math and science and a natural in matters of logic and debate. But he also had a streak of...

FanPost
13

Mike Moustakas could be a down-ballot MVP candidate

For those who might have missed this development, Mike Moustakas has been good this season. Really good. Really ridiculously good even. The season is still young, but to date, it's borne witness...

More Danny Duffy Stats

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  1. 10.32 K/9 (4th in MLB)
  2. 95.3 MPH fastball (2nd in MLB and 1st among LHP)
  3. 11% swinging strike rate (11th in MLB)
  4. +4.85 runs/100 change-ups (7th in MLB)
  5. 4.76 BB/9 (not at all good)

Moustakas projected to be Top-15 Player in MLB this Season

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Projections courtesy of ZiPS. Gordon comes in at #12, but that seems a lot less shocking than Moose at #15. The projections don't include baserunning, and there isn't yet a comparable list for pitchers.

Bizarro World

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I....I don't have words. Was a Fangraphs piece really more or less re-printed in the Star? And did Yost really bring up?

FanPost
51

Replace Mendoza with Mazzaro or Crow next time through the rotation?

As far as I'm concerned, the Luis Mendoza experiement is finished. Good pitchers have a K:BB ratio of 3. Bad pitchers are closer to 1.5. Luis Mendoza's career ratio is barely over 1.0 and falling...

Danny Duffy: hardest throwing lefty in MLB

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Velocity readings at the K may be a little hot, but Duffy's been throwing gas in his first two starts. His average fastball velocity of 94.9 MPH is 3rd highest in the Majors, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Jeff Samardzija. And among lefties, he's in a league of his own. Matt Moore is the closest LH SP, clocking in at 93.6 MPH, 1.3 MPH slower than Duffy's average. Duffy is also sporting a K/9 over 10 so far which is pretty good in its own right. The kid has been dealing so far in 2012.

Nice article on the mentality of the starting rotation

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They're heard that you think they suck, and they're getting ready to kick some EXTRA ass just to prove you wrong.

Rany makes a case for 81 wins

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The logic goes something like this: (1) The Royals run differential last year suggested a 78 win team. (2) Projections expect large amounts of regression from players like Gordon and Francoeur, but Rany believes their success in 2011 is at least partially attributable to real and sustainable adjustments (Seitzer!), and regression won't be as steep as projected. (3) The Royals are very young and should be expected to improve over last year (4) The rotation won't hurt the team as much as a lot of people expect, both because (a) it won't be quite as bad as people expect and (b) given the expanding role of the bullpen and the importance of defense, the starting rotation isn't responsibe for as large a share of run prevention as conventional wisdom holds. There's no calculation at the end that outputs 81 wins, so the numbers guys won't be satisfied, but it's not a totally unreasonable argument.

Duffy stumbles, hurts shot at rotation

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Did anyone else see this seemingly bad news and have their initial reaction be, "Oh phew, maybe Paulino will stay a starter?" Something's wrong here, no?

Rany weighs in on Perez extension

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"It’s a tremendous deal for the Royals, the rare contract that combines terrific upside with virtually no risk."

Royals_Report #Royals send INF Yamaico Navarro to Pirates for two minor-leaguers and to clear space...

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Royals_Report #Royals send INF Yamaico Navarro to Pirates for two minor-leaguers and to clear space to make pick in Rule 5 Draft. Royals_Report #Royals pick LHP Cesar Cabral from Boston in Rule 5 Draft. Royals_Report #Royals immediately trade Cabral to Yankees for cash.

What?
FanPost
81

Bill James Projection System Bullish on Royals offense

You might remember this much-maligned post that tried to take a very early stab at how the Royals might do next season.  At the time, I estimated that the Royals offense would cumulatively be about...

Royals Win% derived from WAR over .500

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Royals players have collected the WAR of an 83 win team. They're on pace to win 71. Some of that difference can be accounted for by pitchers underperforming their FIPS and by the team underperforming its run differential.

FanPost
54

Why the Royals offense is worse than it seems

The Royals offense is pretty good at scoring runs.  The Royals are 6th in the AL in runs scored (behind big slugging teams like Boston, New York, Texas and Toronto) and 2nd in the AL Central behind...

FanPost
145

Reasonable Expectations: 2012 Royals

The Royals crappy record and seemingly improved play inspired me to put together a couple tables to try to figure out how competitive they are heading into 2012.  My methods were rough by any...

Hochevar before "adjustment": 5.46 ERA, 4.56 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 Hochevar after "adjustment": 2.41 ERA,...

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Hochevar before "adjustment": 5.46 ERA, 4.56 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 Hochevar after "adjustment": 2.41 ERA, 7.05 K/9, 2.71 BB/9

A sharp contrast, but it's only 33 and 2/3 innings. Do the numbers reflect a bit of genuine improvement, or is this purely a hot stretch?
FanPost
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Catching up to the AL Central: Starting Pitching

I've been thinking about putting together a series about how the Royals can catch up to the other teams in the AL Central and make the playoffs in 2012, so the first thing I wanted to do was see...

The Royals are 11 games behind the Tigers

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9 games left against Detroit, and 51 games left total. Long odds, but it's the closest the Royals have been to the playoffs in August in a long time. Hell, put the 2007 Rockies in this spot and they'd win the division by 15 games.

FanPost
25

Giavotella promotion poll

After Dutton's report that the Royals have a 100-150 AB goal for Giavotella this year, the promotion heat has cranked up yet another notch.  They've all but told us that Giavotella will be promoted...

Showing 1 - 30 of 61 Older
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